Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is not explicitly mentioned in the report regarding the bond market. However, the general tone seems to suggest a cautious view on the bond market, with potential risks and adjustments ahead [27]. Core View of the Report - The bond market has been weakening recently with a divergence in bond varieties. Both bulls and bears in the bond market are currently confused. The report presents multiple reasons for both bullish and bearish outlooks on the bond market and concludes that the risk in the bond market has not been eliminated, with potential for further adjustments within the year [2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Reasons - **Bond Supply Mismatch in Q4**: This year, the fiscal bond issuance has been front - loaded, with the remaining quotas for national and local bonds in Q4 at 21.5% and 22.1% respectively, lower than last year's 26.3% and 30.5%. Q4 is also the insurance "opening - up" period, leading to increased allocation demand from insurance companies [7]. - **Favorable Economic Data**: The corporate loans in the social financing data have weakened for two consecutive months, and the economic data in August was generally weak. The production slowed down, with the industrial added - value growth rate in August at 5.2%, down 0.5pct from the previous month. The fixed - asset investment also slowed down. Weak economic data is beneficial for the bond market [8]. - **Monetary Policy and Treasury Bond Transactions**: With a weakening economy, weak social financing and credit, and the Fed's rate cut, there is an increased probability of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in Q4. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation by the central bank implies a potential rate cut. The discussion on government bond issuance management and central bank's treasury bond transactions also provides room for speculation [12]. Bearish Reasons - **Nominal GDP and Re - inflation**: The "anti - involution" policy has a positive impact on inflation. PPI has shown signs of bottoming out. Nominal GDP may rise due to the narrowing of the GDP deflator, which could be unfavorable for bond yields. Expectations of inflation are also increasing [16]. - **Mutual Fund Redemption Chain Reaction**: Due to weakening profitability and the potential redemption fee, mutual bond funds may face scale shrinkage, which could lead to liquidity and valuation spread pressures on certain bond varieties favored by mutual funds [20]. - **Weak Monetary Policy Coordination**: The monetary policy has not adjusted policy rates. To cooperate with the "anti - involution" policy, interest rates may not be further reduced. The desired growth rate of loans may decline, and the current interest rate level may be appropriate [23]. - **Sustained Breakthrough in the Equity Market**: The equity market has shifted from a situation of "no fundamental support" to "having performance support from specific sectors". This may lead to a long - term trend of capital flowing from the bond market to the equity market [24]. Outlook for Monday - Two news events, a news conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" and a positive phone call between the Chinese and US presidents, may boost risk appetite. The bond and equity markets are likely to have a "risk - on" trading pattern. The risk in the bond market has not been eliminated, and there is still room for adjustment within the year [27].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple fund companies are launching index-enhanced funds linked to major A-share indices, indicating a growing interest in equity market investments amid recent strong performance of these indices [1] Fund Launches - Guotai Junan Fund announced the launch of the Guotai Junan Shanghai Composite Index Enhanced Fund on October 22, with a maximum initial fundraising limit of 8 billion [1] - Anxin Fund announced the launch of the Anxin ChiNext Index Enhanced Fund on October 13 [1] - Invesco Great Wall Fund reported that the Invesco Great Wall Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Composite Index Enhanced Fund was established on September 18, raising a total of 1.516 billion [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech Innovation Index have recently shown strong performance, with all three indices reaching significant intraday highs on September 18 [1] - On September 18, the Shanghai Composite Index approached 3,900 points, the ChiNext Index surpassed 3,160 points, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index neared 1,700 points [1] Market Outlook - Guotai Junan Fund maintains a long-term optimistic view on the domestic equity market, focusing on investment opportunities in technology and anti-involution sectors, with expectations of significant profit growth in the manufacturing sector [1] - Invesco Great Wall Fund acknowledges the strong performance of the equity market and anticipates potential volatility due to profit-taking after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but remains optimistic about the medium-term benefits for RMB assets and the strengthening trend of overseas capital inflow [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The preventive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will boost subsequent risk assets and equity markets. A-shares rebounded on Wednesday, with the Shenzhen market performing significantly stronger than the broader market, and a clear structural market in technology stocks. In the short term, stock index futures may seek to break through the upper limit of the trading range. The strategy remains unchanged, focusing on technology growth and large financial sectors, such as computing power and robotics in specific sectors, and maintaining a long position in the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overseas Market**: In August, the annualized total of new housing starts in the US was 1.307 million units, lower than the expected 1.365 million and the previous value of 1.429 million. The total number of building permits was 1.312 million units, lower than the expected 1.37 million and the previous value of 1.362 million, indicating a weakening of the US real estate market. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at its September meeting, and the market's expectation for the number of subsequent interest rate cuts this year increased from 1 to 2. The Fed's statement showed a dovish stance, but Powell's speech was hawkish, leading to significant fluctuations in overnight assets [2][7]. - **Domestic Market**: On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.37%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%. The market showed a pattern of index rebound but stock differentiation. Traditional heavy - weight stocks pressured the index, while technology stocks supported the market, with a clear structural market in technology stocks. Among sectors, power equipment, automobiles, household appliances, coal, and machinery had the highest gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, commerce and retail, social services, food and beverages, and textile and apparel had the largest losses [3][8]. 3.2 Important News - **Federal Reserve Meeting**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with only Milan opposing and supporting a 50 - basis - point cut. Powell said the labor market risk was skewed downward, and this rate cut could be seen as a risk - management measure. The median of the dot - plot implied a total of 3 interest rate cuts (75 basis points) this year and 1 cut next year. Milan hoped for a total of 150 basis points of cuts this year. Powell also implicitly expressed concerns about stagflation [9][10]. - **Other News**: The EU announced sanctions against Israel; the US Treasury Secretary's property issue was similar to the reason for Cook's removal; the Bank of Canada cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%; the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will promote strategic and specialized restructuring and integration of state - owned enterprises; from January to August, the securities transaction stamp duty revenue increased by 81.7% year - on - year, and the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, up 0.3% year - on - year; Li Jiachao aims to make Hong Kong an international gold trading market; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on standards for intelligent connected vehicle combined driving assistance [11][12]. 3.3 Today's Strategy - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there will be 2 more cuts in the second half of the year. Although overnight asset prices fluctuated significantly due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the preventive interest rate cut will boost the subsequent equity market. The strategy remains unchanged, focusing on technology growth and large financial sectors, such as computing power and robotics in specific sectors, and maintaining a long position in the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures [2][5][13]. 3.4 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Performance**: Data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, showing the performance of different contracts on a specific day [15]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on the trading volume, trading volume changes, turnover, turnover changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts are provided, as well as the changes in the net positions of the top 20 member institutions [16]. 3.5 Spot Market Tracking - **Market Index Performance**: Information on the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volume, price - to - earnings ratios, and other indicators of major market indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index is provided [39]. - **Sector Performance**: The performance of various sectors, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, finance, and public utilities sectors, is presented, including price changes, trading volume, and price - to - earnings ratios [39]. - **Market Style Impact**: The impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on major market indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 is analyzed, including the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [40][41]. 3.6 Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank Operations**: Information on the central bank's open - market operations, including money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection, is presented [52][53]. - **Shibor Rates**: The levels of Shibor rates for different tenors (overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month) are shown [52][53].

Group 1: Market Trends and Product Performance - The market attractiveness of "equity-inclusive" wealth management products has increased due to the recent recovery in the equity market and the decline in yields of pure bond products amid bond market adjustments [1][2] - The adjustment in the bond market is primarily influenced by market sentiment, with institutional investors facing a scarcity of quality assets, which continues to drive demand for interest rate bonds [2][6] - The "fixed income +" wealth management products are being emphasized to smooth out net value fluctuations, with a focus on increasing issuance and adjusting duration and leverage for pure bond products [2][3] Group 2: Investor Behavior and Risk Perception - There has been a notable increase in investor acceptance of equity-inclusive products, driven by enhanced risk awareness and accumulated market experience [3][4] - The shift in investor risk preferences has encouraged wealth management companies to increase their allocation to equity assets, with a cautious approach to limit equity exposure to no more than 5% [3][4] - The implementation of new asset management regulations has contributed to a change in investor expectations regarding absolute returns and rigid repayment, facilitating a more favorable environment for equity product issuance [3][4] Group 3: Focus on Research and Development - Wealth management companies are intensifying their research efforts on listed companies, particularly in the technology and innovation sectors, with a significant number of companies participating in company surveys [5][6] - The focus areas for research include electronic components, medical devices, and electrical equipment, with companies like Deep South Circuit and Aohua Endoscopy receiving considerable attention [5][6] - The dual drivers of policy encouragement and internal research needs are pushing wealth management companies to actively engage with listed companies, enhancing their ability to serve the real economy [6]

Market Overview - The equity market saw all major indices rise last week, with the Sci-Tech 50 increasing by 5.48% and both the Small and Medium-sized Board Index and the CSI 500 rising over 3% [3] - Among the 31 first-level industries, 26 experienced gains, with the top five performing sectors being electronics, real estate, agriculture, media, and non-ferrous metals; the bottom five were comprehensive, banking, oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, and leisure services [3] Public Fund Market - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to further promote the regular application and recommendation of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the infrastructure sector [4] - The average increase for equity funds was 2.28%, while fixed income plus funds rose by 0.16%, with a positive return ratio of 54.51%; pure bond funds saw an average decline of 0.15% [4] - The overall equity fund position was measured at 78.29% as of September 12, 2025, an increase of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [4] ETF Market - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 4.434 billion yuan last week, with cross-border ETFs seeing a net inflow of 18.693 billion yuan, while stock ETFs had a net outflow of 5.382 billion yuan [5] - The average daily trading volume in the ETF market reached 439.932 billion yuan, with a daily turnover rate of 10.20% [5] - Major inflow themes included brokerages, batteries, and Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, while broad-based funds continued to see outflows [5] Fund Issuance - A total of 55 new funds were issued last week, an increase of 11 from the previous period, with 39 newly established funds, up by 1 [6] - The total amount raised by new funds was 21.794 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.779 billion yuan from the prior period [6]

Key Points - The article discusses the recent trends in China's export and inflation data, highlighting a decline in export growth and a potential recovery in PPI due to improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries [3][4] - It notes the tightening of funding prices, with a net withdrawal of 440.2 billion yuan from the central bank's open market operations, leading to a slight increase in DR007 to around 1.48% [4] - The primary market is expected to see a gradual decrease in supply pressure, with a total issuance of 74 bonds amounting to 632.5 billion yuan during the reporting period [5] - The secondary market is experiencing upward pressure, influenced by a strong equity market and adjustments in fund redemption fees, which may negatively impact bond investments [5] - The outlook indicates that both domestic and external demand pressures remain significant, with a focus on fiscal policies aimed at strengthening domestic circulation and potential central bank actions to support liquidity [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The data from August indicates a continued trend of deposit migration, with a significant increase in non-bank deposits, suggesting a shift of funds from traditional savings to more active investment avenues like the equity market [1][4][5]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In August, total new deposits reached 2.06 trillion yuan, with only 110 billion yuan coming from new resident deposits, a year-on-year decrease of 600 billion yuan [4]. - Non-bank deposits saw a substantial increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in August, following a record increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in July, marking the highest level since 2015 [5][4]. - The M1 growth rate expanded to 6.0% year-on-year in August, while M2 growth remained at 8.8%, narrowing the M1-M2 spread to 2.8%, the lowest in nearly 51 months [1][3]. Group 2: Market Implications - The acceleration of deposit migration is believed to be driven by a recovering equity market, with analysts suggesting that the stock market may be a primary destination for these funds [5][7]. - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August reached 2.65 million, a month-on-month increase of over 30%, indicating a growing interest from retail investors [8]. - Public fund market data shows a significant increase in equity fund subscriptions, with stock funds seeing a net increase of 108.79 billion units and a growth in scale of 485.54 billion yuan in August [12][13]. Group 3: Fund Market Dynamics - The total public fund market size grew by 571.66 billion yuan in August, alongside a 285.7 billion yuan increase in wealth management products, aligning closely with the 1.18 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits [12][13]. - The share of household deposits in the A-share market was 53% in July, indicating potential for further growth as the market recovers [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - **Alumina**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - **Aluminum**: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - **Rubber**: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]