金十数据6月21日讯，美联储本周发布的新经济预测预计，经济增长将放缓，通胀将上升。然而，政策 制定者仍预计今年晚些时候会降息——这表明他们确实认为关税将推高价格，但不会持续。不过，意见 分歧很大：19位官员中，七位决策者认为今年不需要降息，八位认为两次降息，这与投资者对美联储在 9月和12月会议上降息25个基点的看法一致。另外有2位预计将降息一次，2位预计将降息三次。美联储 理事沃勒和美联储巴尔金在决议后发表了利率看法，前者认为最快7月降息，后者认为不急于降息。尽 管沃勒和巴尔金都没有明确说明他们对利率的具体看法，但就特朗普关税将在多大程度上影响未来几个 月的物价、就业和经济增长，两者所言占据了两个极端。 美联储官员在关税影响、降息紧迫性上出现"两极"分歧 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：必须关注贸易政策对金融市场、外汇市场、日本经济和物价的影响。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：关于贸易政策的最新动态以及海外经济和物价对这些政策的反应，目前形势极 不确定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the impact of trade conditions on prices [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is assessing how trade dynamics are influencing inflationary pressures [1] - There is a focus on the relationship between trade and price stability in the current economic environment [1]

Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales are recovering, while second-hand housing remains weak; the average sales price of home appliances has mostly declined year-on-year [3] - Post-holiday service consumption has cooled down, with movie box office revenues declining and hotel revenues per available room continuing to drop [4] - The retail of passenger vehicles has turned from decline to growth, while wholesale has seen a decrease; the operating rate of semi-steel tires has rebounded [3] Group 2: External Demand - The intensity of "export grabbing" is weakening, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel household appliances [5] - High-frequency export indicators in June have all declined, indicating an overall slowdown in exports [6] - Concerns over the expiration of reciprocal tariffs in July have led to a decrease in container bookings to the U.S. from China [7] Group 3: Production - The manufacturing sector is showing clear signs of off-season characteristics, with employment in manufacturing reaching a new low [9] - The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have continued to decline, with rebar production decreasing and steel prices showing weak fluctuations [10] - The blue-collar employment index in manufacturing has been below last year's levels for six consecutive weeks, reaching a historical low [11] Group 4: Prices - Prices of major commodities have generally rebounded; domestic cement and rebar prices have increased, while glass and thermal coal prices have continued to decline [12] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushing oil prices up significantly [13] - Geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies have increased global uncertainty, driving gold prices to fluctuate upwards [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weak performance of CPI and PPI in May 2025, highlighting a deflationary trend and the factors contributing to this situation, including energy and food prices, as well as the broader economic implications for GDP growth and investment opportunities [1][4][11]. CPI Analysis - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous value, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, lower than the previous -2.7% [1][4]. - The simulated deflation index, based on CPI and PPI weights of 60% and 40%, was -1.38%, the lowest in the past 16 months [1][4]. - The decline in CPI is attributed to a 1.7% month-on-month decrease in energy prices, which negatively impacted CPI by approximately 0.13 percentage points, primarily due to the transmission of commodity price declines influenced by tariffs [6][7]. - Food prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, contributing to a 0.04 percentage point drag on CPI, with weak demand in the restaurant sector being a significant factor [6][7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decline was exacerbated by two main factors: a decrease in global pricing raw materials and weak domestic construction product pricing [8][9]. - The oil extraction, processing, and chemical industries experienced expanded declines due to falling oil prices, with year-on-year price drops of -17.3% for oil extraction and -14.7% for oil processing [8][9]. - New industry products made a slight positive contribution to PPI, with some sectors like automotive and electronics showing a slight narrowing in their year-on-year decline [8][9]. Future Price Trends - Looking ahead, there is a potential for a slight narrowing of PPI declines in June due to recent rebounds in oil and copper prices, indicating a possible improvement in global pricing factors [10]. - However, to significantly alter the low PPI situation, prices in the construction and emerging industries need to exit the negative growth range, which requires effective local government investment strategies [10]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment since the "924" policy has shown signs of stabilization, with actual GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in the second quarter of 2025, despite pressures from exports to the U.S. [11]. - The current economic challenges are primarily related to low prices and nominal GDP, leading to high real interest rates and a heavier debt burden, which could affect investment and consumption opportunities [11].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight acceleration from the previous month [1][2] - Energy prices significantly impacted the CPI decline, with energy prices dropping by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease [2] - The CPI has maintained a year-on-year decline of -0.1% for three consecutive months, reflecting weak overall price levels, while core CPI remains above 0.5%, suggesting a gradual recovery in domestic demand driven by macroeconomic policies [1][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4] - The decline in PPI is primarily attributed to international factors, such as falling crude oil prices, which have led to price decreases in related domestic industries, including a 5.6% drop in oil and gas extraction prices [4][5] - Despite the overall decline, some sectors are showing marginal improvements, with prices for consumer goods and high-end manufacturing products experiencing upward trends, indicating a potential for gradual recovery in certain industries [5][6]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold will experience range-bound fluctuations, while copper and oil are expected to trend upwards [1][13]. - Uncertainties in geopolitical negotiations, such as those involving the US and Iran, are contributing to the rebound in oil prices from their lows [13]. Group 2: Domestic Demand - New home sales, second-hand home sales, and passenger car sales have all declined, while the average monthly sales price of home appliances has shown a mixed trend with more increases than decreases year-on-year [3]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel and spending increased by 5.7% and 5.9% year-on-year, respectively, with box office revenue reaching 460 million yuan, a 33.3% increase [4]. Group 3: External Demand - Export growth has generally slowed, with June showing a decline in high-frequency export indicators and shipping rates [6]. - Container arrivals from China to the US have shifted from an increase to a decrease, indicating reduced transshipment activity [7]. - South Korea's exports fell in May, particularly in steel and petroleum products [8]. Group 4: Production - Demand for steel is weak due to the off-season, leading to a decrease in production rates and prices [10]. - As summer approaches, coal and electricity demand may increase, although recent weather conditions have led to a temporary decline in coal consumption [11]. Group 5: Price Trends - Prices for major commodities have generally rebounded, while domestic prices for steel, glass, coal, and cement continue to decline [12]. - The article notes that the market's concerns over copper tariffs are supporting copper prices as they trend upwards [13].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic focus in May is expected to shift towards exports, with internal changes remaining relatively small. The anticipated export growth rate is around 3.5%, while imports are expected to decline by approximately 2% [2][3][11]. Export - Overall export growth is projected to marginally decline but remains within an acceptable range, with a forecasted year-on-year growth of 3.5% in dollar terms for May [3][11]. - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in container throughput at monitored ports, with a year-on-year decline of 6.7% as of May 25, compared to 7.3% at the end of April [4][12]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 20.2% in May, reflecting weak direct exports to the U.S. [4][12]. - Imports from ASEAN countries have also shown a marginal decline, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in ship arrivals in May, down from 8.3% in April [4][12]. Domestic Demand - Retail sales are expected to grow by around 5.5% in May, with strong performance in the automotive sector but weaker pricing [5][15]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to decline to approximately 3.8% for January to May, influenced by insufficient project availability [5][14]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-on-year decline of about 0.4%, while Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decrease by around 3.5% [6][8]. Financial Data - New social financing is expected to reach 1.9 trillion yuan in May, a decrease of 100 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [6][16]. - M2 money supply is projected to grow by approximately 7.6% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to increase by around 2.4% [6][16]. Real Estate - Real estate sales are anticipated to show a year-on-year decline of about 3.0% in May, with major cities reporting a decrease of 4.1% [15][16]. Summary - The report highlights a cautious outlook for exports and domestic demand, with specific attention to the automotive and real estate sectors. The financial landscape shows signs of slowing growth in social financing and investment, indicating potential challenges ahead for the economy [2][5][11][15][16].

日本央行行长植田和男：必须高度警惕贸易政策带来的极高不确定性及其对日本经济和物价的影响。 ...