但鲍威尔此次新闻发布会意义特殊——这是自美联储收到大陪审团传票后的首次公开露面，且恰逢最高 法院就罢免另一位美联储理事的争议展开辩论数日后。届时，他必将直面政治干预争议、央行独立性捍 卫，以及任期5月届满后的个人规划等尖锐问题。 在多次引发争议的降息操作后，本月维持利率不变的决定或能赢得政策制定者的普遍支持。尽管此前多 数官员认可通过降息支撑疲弱劳动力市场的必要性，但另一派政策制定者始终强调应优先应对持续高企 的通胀问题。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储利率决议将于北京时间周四凌晨3点正式公布，随后30分钟，主席杰罗姆·鲍 威尔将召开新闻发布会。本周，鲍威尔或将试图引导市场关注经济基本面——市场普遍预期，在连续三 次降息25个基点后，美联储本周将按兵不动，维持当前利率水平不变。 彭博经济学家安娜·王和克里斯·G·柯林斯认为，"市场普遍预计联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将在 1 月的 会议上维持利率不变，但此次会议仍可能具有重大意义。若决定暂停降息，将引发白宫的强烈不满，而 白宫此前已对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔施加了巨大压力。" 本月维持利率不变仍会遭遇一些反对。美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰(Stephen Miran) ...

Group 1: Dividend Strategy Outlook for 2026 - The dividend strategy in 2025 significantly underperformed the market, primarily due to the emergence of new growth sectors like AI, which shifted market focus from dividend yield (d) to growth rate (g) from 2022 to mid-2024[2] - For 2026, the core judgment on whether dividend strategies can achieve excess returns hinges on whether the market continues to prioritize marginal changes in fundamentals[2] - With a low macro risk environment for AI investments and a recovery in corporate earnings expected, the focus may remain on growth rates rather than dividend yields, making excess returns from dividend strategies unlikely[2] Group 2: A-Shares vs. Hong Kong Stocks - Since April 2024, Hong Kong's low-volatility dividend index has outperformed A-shares by 49%, driven mainly by the industrial, financial, and energy sectors[3] - Despite the higher dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks, the PE valuation levels are now comparable to A-shares, indicating limited room for further convergence[3] - The relative performance of Hong Kong stocks is attributed more to stock selection rather than industry allocation, with financials, energy, and industrials contributing the most to excess returns[3] Group 3: Constructing the 2026 Dividend Portfolio - The 2026 dividend strategy should focus on sectors benefiting from AI investment, manufacturing recovery, and domestic consumption recovery, with traditional manufacturing and resource sectors expected to have the broadest benefits[3] - A scoring system combining payout ratios and stability with profitability metrics (ROE) is proposed to optimize sector allocation for dividends[3] - Recommended sectors for increased allocation include insurance, textile manufacturing, and logistics, while sectors with high potential but lower success rates, like banks and construction, should be considered for long-term investment[3]

一问红利：2026 年是否会有超额？ 2025 年红利策略大幅跑输市场，最核心的原因在于市场找到了新的能够突破宏观趋势的成长性：以 AI 产业投资为代 表，以及景气度也开始逐步扩散到与 AI 强相关的"泛 AI"领域。所以市场的定价驱动力从 2022 年至 2024 年上半年 的股息率 d 逐步开始重新转向增长率 g。展望 2026 年，红利策略是否会有相较于全 A 的超额收益，核心判断还是在于 市场是否依旧以基本面的边际变化作为核心驱动力？基于我们年度策略《世界的中国》对于 2026 年的基本面展望， 在 AI 投资宏观风险较低、降息周期下全球制造业景气度向上的背景下，2026 年中国的企业盈利修复可能是股票市场 的核心驱动力，会有更多的行业景气度出现改善。在这种宏观背景下，我们认为投资者可能还是会更加关注基本面的 边际变化（增长率）而非股息率。所以 2026 年红利策略似乎很难获取超额收益。但这并不意味着红利策略不重要， 因为它依旧是很多投资者构建投资组合的压舱石和降低组合波动的重要工具：一方面，A 股权益资产内部红利资产的 估值水平最低，波动率也相对较低；另一方面，与主要城市二手住宅租金回报、10 年期 ...

（1）ETF账户 今日亏损4.3万（资产260万）； （2）基金账户 今日预估盈利0.8万（资产550万）； 全靠资源对冲亏损了。 两个账户合计亏损3.5万，亏损比例0.44%； （一）账户盈亏 先跟新朋友同步下我的账户情况： 我一共有 3 个【主要投资账户】，分别是ETF 账户、某基金账户，以及组合账户。 因为组合账户的净值更新会慢一些，所以工作日我只统计ETF账户和某基金账户的收益；等到每周六发周报的时候，再把三个账户的收益情况一起汇总。 随着全球主要经济体进入降息周期，流动性整体趋松。更关键的是，美元信用持续弱化，各国央行减持美债并囤积黄金，推动金价飙升；随后投资者将目 光转向白银，投机资金快速涌入，银价跟涨。同时，我国作为白银出口大国，开始实施出口配额制，进一步促进白银价格上涨。 （2）有色金属上行主因：需求激增、供给受限 当下正值以人工智能、机器人、新能源、商业航天为代表的科技革命期： 需求端快速扩张的同时，地缘政治因素使铜、稀土等关键矿产资源的安全与自主可控上升到国家战略高度，部分国家收紧出口，导致供给受限。需求激增 叠加供给受限，有色金属价格全面上扬。 毋庸讳言，黄金、白银与有色金属已累积较大涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite current market volatility, investors are advised to resist the temptation to exit the stock market, as the macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong, providing a solid basis for continued investment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment - The current market is likened to a "bull riding" scenario, characterized by rapid policy shifts and unpredictable changes, yet it contains structural support due to resilient macroeconomic fundamentals [1]. - The probability of a deep bear market is considered low, given the backdrop of declining interest rates, steady corporate earnings growth, and the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [1]. Group 2: Market Participation - A broad market expansion is evident, with various sectors such as biotechnology, banking, natural resources, small-cap, and mid-cap stocks actively participating in the market rebound, indicating widespread and sustained market momentum [2]. - Predictions indicate that mid-cap earnings are expected to grow by 17% this year, while small-cap stocks are projected to achieve a significant 19% growth, marking a major turnaround compared to previous years of underperformance [2]. Group 3: Risks and Concerns - Significant risks remain, with the government attempting to balance maintaining economic momentum and continuing the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, which is described as a narrow policy path that could easily become unbalanced [2]. - Potential political interference, such as a Supreme Court ruling on tariff policies, could present a buying opportunity, but the primary concern lies in controlling inflation while sustaining economic momentum and the current easing cycle [2].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden announcement by a former president to abandon tariff threats against Europe led to a dramatic sell-off in the gold and silver markets, causing gold prices to plummet by over $100 and silver to drop more than 2% [1][3] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices fell below the psychological level of $4,800 after reaching nearly $4,900, indicating a significant market shift [1] - The sell-off was exacerbated by technical factors, including overbought conditions and increased margin requirements from exchanges, forcing leveraged positions to liquidate [1] - Silver, being less liquid and smaller in market size, became a primary target for short sellers, leading to a massive influx of short positions [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Retail investors exhibited mixed reactions, with some taking loans to buy the dip, while others sold at a loss, expressing frustration over the sudden market reversal [3] - Institutional investors are divided, with bullish investors believing in ongoing central bank gold purchases and bearish investors arguing that silver's value is inflated, estimating its true worth to be just above $40 [3] Group 3: Expert Insights - Experts caution ordinary investors against being swayed by emotions, highlighting the volatility of gold and silver markets [3] - Recommendations include focusing on low-premium physical assets like bank gold bars and avoiding high-leverage futures and premium funds [3] - The market turmoil is attributed not to fundamental breakdowns but to a "perfect storm" created by sudden policy changes impacting a fragile market structure [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market has positive support overall, but short - term rhythm and structural optimization need attention. It is recommended to optimize positions using market fluctuations and focus on performance and prosperity [2][4]. - The strong start - up of the convertible bond market in early 2026 is due to the resonance of macro - economic improvement and capital return. The regulatory move to cool the market will lead the bullish market into a more stable second half [4][9]. - With the release of annual report pre - announcements, the performance of underlying stocks will be an important basis for the differentiation of convertible bond issues. It is advisable to select convertible bonds of underlying stocks with high - certainty performance growth in Q1 2026 [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Strategy - In the past week (January 12 - 16, 2026), the A - share market reached a new high and then pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index had a rare "17 - consecutive - positive" start on January 12, with the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reaching 3.64 trillion yuan, a record high. However, after reaching a peak trading volume of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, the market declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% for the week. Sectors such as electronics, computers, power equipment and new energy, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while national defense and military industry, coal, real estate, and banking sectors led the losses. Small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks [6]. - The convertible bond market rose against the trend, and its valuation continued to recover. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08% for the week, and the equal - weighted convertible bond index rose 1.45%, slightly less than the 1.88% increase of the equal - weighted index of underlying stocks of convertible bonds. Various convertible bond market indices generally rose, with high - price and low - premium convertible bonds and small - cap convertible bonds performing relatively better, while the large - cap convertible bond index, double - low index, and low - price index performed relatively poorly [6]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The strong start of the convertible bond market in early 2026 is due to the resonance of macro - economic improvement and capital return. The macro - economy shows positive signals, including the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion range, continuous improvement of price indicators such as CPI and PPI, and a general rise in commodity prices. The RMB exchange rate is strengthening, and the central bank indicates that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. At the beginning of the year, institutional funds such as public funds and insurance funds are in the layout window, and the risk appetite of trading - type funds has increased, with the margin trading balance continuously hitting new highs [4][9]. - To cool the market and prevent leverage risks, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges raised the margin ratio for new margin trading contracts from 80% to 100% starting from January 19, 2026. This measure, implemented in a "new - old separation" way, aims to suppress excessive speculation. In the short term, it may cause market fluctuations and investment hotspot differentiation, but in the long term, it helps the capital market to develop steadily [4][9]. - The convertible bond market still has positive support. With the continuous release of policy dividends, moderate recovery of corporate profits, and strong demand for convertible bonds from "fixed - income +" funds in the context of the "asset shortage", the convertible bond market is expected to perform steadily in the volatile market. Since early 2026, the median price of convertible bonds has risen from 134 yuan to 139 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate has increased from 33% to 34%. The new bond market has been booming. However, there are two core risks: the valuation correction caused by the cooling of the equity market and the valuation decline risk of convertible bonds approaching the call - trigger condition [4][10]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the A - share market may face short - term shocks due to factors such as policy regulation and seasonal capital flow. Given the current high - price and high - valuation situation in the convertible bond market, market fluctuations may increase. It is recommended to re - balance positions and avoid aggressive chasing [4][10][11]. - With the intensive release of annual report pre - announcements, the performance of underlying stocks will be an important basis for the differentiation of convertible bond issues. It is recommended to select convertible bonds of underlying stocks with high - certainty performance growth in Q1 2026, including those in the AI computing power and semiconductor industries, non - ferrous metals and some chemical industries, and the energy storage industry chain [4][11].

Group 1 - Citigroup predicts a bullish scenario where gold could reach $5,000 within three months, with a potential test of $4,700-$4,750 this week due to trade tensions from Trump's tariff policies and a surge in investments into gold ETFs for hedging, leading to localized shortages in physical gold [1] - JPMorgan anticipates a strong market this week with a target of $4,750, and if stabilized, a push towards $5,000 next month, driven by a 26% probability of a Fed rate cut in March, declining 10-year Treasury yields, and an average monthly gold purchase of 70 tons by emerging market central banks, providing a "safety cushion" for gold prices [1] - Goldman Sachs expects a potential pullback this week with a buying range of $4,600-$4,650, maintaining a year-end target of $4,900, while expressing concerns over profit-taking by hedge funds that may lead to increased short-term volatility despite a long-term bullish outlook [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley adopts a conservative stance, projecting a trading range of $4,620-$4,690 this week, emphasizing that central bank gold purchases provide strong support, and highlighting the acceleration of de-dollarization in emerging markets, suggesting that buying gold is not merely for hedging but a strategic move against dollar dominance, with this trend expected to continue at least until Q3 [1] - Current data indicates that while U.S. employment and inflation are slowing, some sectors are improving under the potential influence of Fed rate cuts, leading to a cautious but optimistic outlook for gold prices in the medium to long term, supported by increased allocations from institutional investors amid rising geopolitical risks [3] - The market is likely to be influenced more by U.S. economic data affecting Fed policy expectations and geopolitical disturbances, with a general view that short-term news impact is diminishing, maintaining a strong oscillating trend for gold prices, while suggesting holding long positions above the 20-day moving average and selling out-of-the-money put options to capture time value [3]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices surged, breaking through $4700, reaching a new historical high of $4698.257 per ounce, with an increase of 0.62% [1] - Year-to-date, spot gold has risen over 8% [2] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have continued to rise, with multiple brands quoting prices above 1450 RMB per gram; for instance, Chow Sang Sang quoted 1454 RMB per gram, an increase of 25 RMB over two days [3] - The World Gold Council reported that in 2025, gold prices set new records 53 times, with global gold ETF inflows reaching $89 billion [4] Group 3 - Analysts from Huatai Securities identified three main reasons for the rise in precious metals: geopolitical tensions increasing safe-haven demand, rising industrial demand for silver due to AI development, and the ongoing easing cycle of the Federal Reserve [5] - Dongwu Futures noted that recent U.S. tariffs on European countries have heightened safe-haven sentiment, benefiting precious metals [5] - Zhongcai Futures indicated that gold and silver still have upward potential due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence [5][6] Group 4 - In the medium to long term, the continuation of the Federal Reserve's easing process and rising fiscal deficits are expected to support gold prices, while silver may face high tariffs, benefiting its price [6] - The uncertain global trade and inflation environment, along with ongoing central bank gold purchases and a long-term supply-demand gap for silver, suggest a bullish outlook for precious metals [6]

Core Insights - The report from Huafu Securities outlines the historical trajectory and future pricing logic of gold, emphasizing its unique position as a non-yielding asset with commodity, currency, and financial attributes [1][2] - The supply and demand dynamics of gold are undergoing significant restructuring, influenced by global macroeconomic changes and increasing financial market uncertainties [1][3] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Global gold supply has seen slow growth over the past decade, with mine production growth significantly slowing since 2016. Recycled gold has become an important variable in adjusting supply [1][15] - From 2010 to 2024, global gold supply increased from 4,317 tons to 4,957 tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1%. In 2024, supply is expected to grow by 0.3% year-on-year, reaching a new high [15][31] - The production of mined gold increased from 2,755 tons in 2010 to 3,645 tons in 2024, but growth has slowed since 2016 due to declining resource grades and stricter environmental policies [17][20] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand for gold has shifted from traditional jewelry manufacturing to investment demand and central bank purchases, with investment demand significantly increasing by 24% in 2024 [33][35] - In 2025, investment demand surged by 87% to 1,566 tons, accounting for 42% of total demand, marking a significant shift where investment demand surpassed jewelry demand for the second time in the 2010-2025 period [35][41] - The demand for gold in technology applications has decreased, with its share falling to 7% in 2024, influenced by rising investment demand and central bank purchases [35][41] Group 3: Historical Context - The report reviews over 200 years of gold price history, highlighting its role as a safe haven during periods of economic turmoil, such as the oil crises and the global financial crisis [2][3] - Key historical phases include the gold standard, the Bretton Woods system, and the impact of various economic crises, which have all shaped gold's pricing dynamics [2][3] Group 4: Future Pricing Drivers - The report identifies two core drivers for future gold prices: interest rates and the evolution of dollar credit. Lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting price increases [3][41] - The ongoing expansion of fiscal deficits and debt levels poses challenges to the long-term stability of the dollar, while central banks diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings serves as a strategic hedge against the existing monetary system [3][41]