截至发稿，现货黄金上涨0.85%，报每盎司4517.63美元，此前一度触及每盎司4531.24美元的纪录高点;2月交割的纽 约黄金期货上涨0.97%，报每盎司4546.5美元。 OANDA高级市场分析师Kelvin Wong表示："自12月初以来，由动能驱动和投机性交易者推动了金银价格的上涨。年 末流动性稀薄、市场预期美国将维持较长时间降息周期、美元走软以及地缘政治风险再度升级，这些因素共同作 用，将贵金属价格推至新的历史高位。" "展望2026年上半年，黄金可能向每盎司5000美元迈进，而白银则有潜力触及每盎司90美元左右。" 现货白银上涨4.16%，报每盎司74.8705美元，此次一度突破75美元大关。 今年以来，受美联储政策转向宽松、地缘政治不确定性、央行强劲购金需求、ETF持仓增加以及去美元化进程持续 推动，黄金表现强劲，录得自1979年以来最大年度涨幅。白银年内飙升158%，远超黄金近72%的涨幅，这得益于结 构性供需缺口、被列为美国关键矿物以及强劲的工业需求。 智通财经APP获悉，受投机买盘推动、年末市场流动性收紧，叠加市场预期美联储将进一步降息及地缘政治紧张局 势加剧，黄金、白银和铂金价格于周五 ...

对此，五矿期货贵金属研究员钟俊轩对上海证券报记者表示，市场对新任美联储主席"鸽派"预期增强， 国际银价显著受益。 此外，在白银现货供需层面，白银ETF的持仓量趋势性增加。外盘最大的iShares白银ETF总持仓量12月 23日单日增加533吨，锁定了更多在纽约、伦敦市场的白银现货。白银现货租赁利率持续维持在近5年来 同期最高水平，意味着现货市场供应紧张，亦提振了近期白银价格。 面对不断突破想象的黄金"牛市"，投资者应如何看待？ 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞认为，金价仍将处于上行通道。原因有三：一是当前美国债务风险 持续上升，美元资产吸引力边际下降，推动资金向黄金迁移；二是全球央行黄金配置意愿仍强；三是明 年美国还在降息周期中，支撑金价。 白银9999周K线图 张大伟 制图 ◎记者 张骄 行至年末，黄金、白银开启强势单边上涨模式，价格双双再创新高。 12月24日，伦敦现货黄金有史以来首次站上4500美元/盎司；伦敦现货白银自12月23日站上70美元/盎司 后，24日一举突破72美元/盎司，同样刷新历史纪录。今年以来，国际金价累计涨幅超70%，银价暴涨 约150%。在外盘带动下，国内金价同步突破关键大关，上海 ...

2025.12. 24 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 黄思瑜 年末金属市场掀起涨价狂潮。12月24日，黄金、白银、铜、铂金等国内外价格均创出历史新高，国 内钯金期货主力合约涨停。 当日，伦敦金、银现货价格最高探至4525.83美元/盎司、72.701美元/盎司，沪金、沪银主力合约 价格最高涨至1022.88元/克、17671元/千克；国内铂金、钯金期货主力合约相继涨停，再度分别 创出新高675.65元/克、578.45元/克；铜价也创出历史新高，LME铜最高冲至12282美元/吨，沪 铜期货主力合约最高价为96750元/吨。此外，镍的价格也在近期大涨。 南华期货高级总监傅小燕对第一财经称，此轮金属市场价格上涨是在降息周期大背景下，叠加了地缘 政治、产业周期的扰动，资金逐利共同推动的。国信期货首席分析师顾冯达也称，2025年金属板块 的强势表现源于宏观金融政策与供需结构性变化形成利多共振，金融市场多头资金顺势助推，板块轮 动效应下，各金属品种轮番上涨并扩大涨势。 对于后市行情的预判，中信建投期货贵金属首席分析师王彦青认为，作为美元信用价值的良好对冲工 具，金银等贵金属回调风险较小， ...

从金到铜 - 铜金比低位下的有色金属另类投资机会 20151223 摘要 有色金属期货价格指数直接持有上海期货交易所六大金属期货合约，铜 和铝占比超过 65%，铜占比超 50%，受股票市场情绪影响小，更适合 机构投资者进行资产配置，降低组合相关性。 美联储降息预期导致美元走弱，支撑以美元计价的大宗商品需求，中美 两国政策窗口期或将实施积极财政和宽松货币政策，共同构成商品牛市 的基本条件，利好有色金属价格。 全球铜矿供应端在 2025 年经历多次扰动，国际金融机构预测 2026 年 全球铜市可能出现约 15 万吨的供应缺口，铜矿企业资本投入不足导致 新增产能有限，预计 2026 年全球铜产量增速将降至 0.9%。 新能源车、人工智能和电网升级建设是铜需求端长期且确定性高的支撑 因素，新能源车用铜量是同等级燃油车的 3-4 倍，中型数据中心用铜量 可达上百吨，西电东送需要建设特高压输电线路。 降息周期中，金属表现出轮动特征，通常黄金先行，其后是白银，再到 工业属性占比较大的金属。市场从衰退危机模式转换为通胀复苏模式， 铝等股票资产表现出色。 有色金属期货价格指数主要有两个特点。首先是成分分布情况，铜占比最大， 约 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

2． 期货：通过观察伦敦市场远月贴水、一个月期租赁利率等高频数据，目前没有观测到钯金存在类似 铂金的非常典型的流动性枯竭的问题，同时钯金ETF增持速度也有所放缓，料钯金在经历了上周的快速 上行后向上移动的速度有所放缓，但总体铂钯暂没有掉头迹象。尽管如此，我们仍然提示注意高位宽幅 波动风险。 2025年12月23日，国内主力合约涨跌互现。铂封涨停板，碳酸锂、钯涨超5%，沪银涨超4%，沪镍涨近 4%。跌幅方面，乙二醇（EG）跌超3%，液化气（LPG）、原木、红枣跌超1%。 | 序号 | 合约各称 | 最新 | 那手 | 采价 | 类似 | News t | 此高 | 英国 | 可在下 | 清洁 | 持合量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 92606 w | 619.95 | 1 | 619.95 | | 10.00% | 221 | - | 146097 56.35 | | 38915 | 2597 | | 2 | 碳酸锂2605 M | 120360 | 1 ...

刘庭宇进一步表示，从基本面来看，黄金股呈业绩高增态势，2026年或有望继续上演戴维斯双击行情。 中证沪深港黄金股指数前十大成分股2025年前三季度业绩保持62%的高增速，符合市场预期。这一高增 长得益于金价中枢上行与金矿公司积极扩产形成的"量价齐升"格局，且这一核心逻辑在后续或仍将持续 兑现。从估值层面来看，截至11月30日，若按3800美元/盎司的金价测算，主要金矿公司2026年平均市 盈率仅为11-15倍，而历史上金矿公司估值中枢约为20倍，当前板块仍存在显著的估值修复空间。 刘庭宇表示，从资金维度看，无论是降息周期带来的交易型资金流入，还是在去美元化等趋势下长期配 置需求的增强，黄金板块均展现出显著的投资价值。尤其值得注意的是，近期黄金隐含波动率已快速回 落至历史平均水平，这在降低市场不确定性的同时，进一步提升了投资的性价比。 "美国11月失业率超预期抬升，叠加通胀数据低于预期、消费数据持续疲软，多重信号均指向美国经济 增长动能放缓，为美联储进一步宽松提供了充足依据。高盛、美银、瑞银及世界黄金协会等纷纷上调黄 金目标价至4900-5000美元区间，为黄金股的表现提供了坚实的价格支撑。"刘庭宇称。 12月 ...

（原标题：贵金属板块爆发，现货黄金首次站上4400美元关口） 消息面上，12月22日，现货黄金首次站上4400美元关口，再创历史新高；白银现货价格一度攀升至69美 元/盎司上方，同样创下历史最高水平。 东吴期货认为，短期来看，黄金白银仍有上行动能。预计中长期来看，在地缘政治冲突、降息周期开 启、美元信用式微等因素下，黄金白银将维持上涨趋势。 fund 12月22日，A股三大股指高开高走，创业板指涨超2%。板块上，贵金属板块大爆发，晓程科技、湖南 白银、西部黄金涨超5%领涨，山东黄金、中金黄金、四川黄金跟涨。 ...

12月22日，A股三大股指高开高走，创业板指涨超2%。板块上，贵金属板块大爆发，晓程科技、湖南 白银、西部黄金涨超5%领涨，山东黄金、中金黄金、四川黄金跟涨。 东吴期货认为，短期来看，黄金白银仍有上行动能。预计中长期来看，在地缘政治冲突、降息周期开 启、美元信用式微等因素下，黄金白银将维持上涨趋势。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 消息面上，12月22日，现货黄金首次站上4400美元关口，再创历史新高；白银现货价格一度攀升至69美 元/盎司上方，同样创下历史最高水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates a differentiated performance in the light industry manufacturing sector, with home furnishings and paper sectors stabilizing at the bottom, while new tobacco and packaging sectors show a steady upward trend. The trendy toy sector is showing positive signals of recovery, whereas the light consumer goods sector is under pressure [1]. Group 1: Home Furnishings - The central economic work conference continues to focus on "boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand," with upcoming actions to stimulate consumption, benefiting home furnishings demand recovery [2]. - In November, China's furniture export value decreased by 8.83% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed to single digits. Exports to Southeast Asia are steadily increasing, while exports to the U.S. are showing a mild downward trend [2]. - The report suggests that while domestic demand remains weak in the short term, it is expected to recover steadily due to supportive consumption policies. Companies with strong brand attributes and operational advantages are recommended [2]. Group 2: New Tobacco - In the vaping sector, 18 states in the U.S. have implemented regulations, covering about 50% of the industry's tracked channel sales, which is expected to support sales recovery for compliant brands like Vuse [3]. - The report highlights that as enforcement against illegal vaping products strengthens, the compliant market is likely to expand, benefiting leading brands [3]. - The FDA has approved ON!Plus nicotine pouches, marking a significant regulatory milestone for the nicotine pouch market [3]. Group 3: Paper and Packaging - As of December 18, domestic prices for needle and broadleaf pulp were 5542 and 4633 yuan per ton, respectively, with a slight increase from the previous week. The report notes a continuous decline in inventory levels, indicating tightening supply and rising prices [4]. - The report indicates that downstream packaging demand is steadily recovering, which is expected to support the performance of packaging companies [4]. - The acquisition of Zhongliang Packaging by Aorijin has significantly increased market concentration in the two-piece can industry, enhancing overall pricing power [4]. Group 4: Light Consumer Goods - The light consumer goods sector is experiencing heightened competition, with a clear demand-driven focus and increasing brand concentration. The report highlights top brands in the toothpaste market, indicating a shift towards efficacy and e-commerce adaptability [5]. - Companies with strong new product capabilities and robust offline channel growth logic are recommended for investment [5]. Group 5: Trendy Toys - The trendy toy industry is transitioning from rapid IP growth to a phase of deep cultivation and international expansion. Leading companies like Pop Mart are actively launching new products and expanding their market presence [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies and traditional firms that are successfully transforming their IP development strategies [7]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the home furnishings sector include Oppein Home, Sophia, and Mousse Holdings. In the new tobacco sector, recommended companies include Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong [8]. - For light consumer goods, companies like Pop Mart and Morning Glory are highlighted, while in the paper and packaging sector, Yutong Technology and Sun Paper are recommended [8].