1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Black metal prices have stabilized with a rising central level. Currently, hot-rolled coil production has rebounded, and apparent demand remains high with a small decline. However, both supply and demand of rebar are weak, and apparent demand has declined. Steel and billet exports remain high, digesting production. It is still the off - season for steel, and demand is difficult to improve marginally. Steel maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. In the short term, inventory remains low, and the pressure on steel mills to cut production is small. Iron element costs are supported, but carbon elements are still weak. Later, steel prices will follow the fluctuations of coking coal and coke. Operationally, consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 yuan for hot - rolled coil and 3050 yuan for rebar [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, iron ore has obvious upside pressure due to the expected decline in molten iron, supply increase, and administrative reduction. However, the short - term decline in molten iron is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. During the off - season when demand weakens, the iron ore price range may shift downward, with a reference range of 670 - 720 yuan. Although the terminal demand for finished products faces the risk of weakening in the off - season, it still has some short - term resilience. The average molten iron output in June is expected to remain above 2.4 million tons. Pay attention to the change in molten iron output in July [3]. Coke - The spot fundamentals of coke are still relatively loose. With the sharp rise in crude oil driving the expectation of an energy crisis and the news of production restrictions in the production areas, the coal - coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing an opportunity for hedging short positions. Unilaterally, it is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract on short - term rebounds. For arbitrage, consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The spot fundamentals of coking coal have improved. Affected by the risk of geopolitical conflicts and the sharp rise in crude oil, coking coal has followed the upward trend, and the basis has been repaired. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on short - term dips. For arbitrage, consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly last week, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Affected by the continuous weakening of demand, prices remained weak, and manufacturers' losses continued to intensify. Although manufacturers' inventories decreased, the absolute value was still high. In terms of demand, molten iron increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. Steel billet exports remained strong, and short - term molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. However, terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, but the improvement is insufficient. In the future, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be resolved. In the short term, the stabilization of costs gives some room for price increases, but the sustainability is questionable. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. Ferromanganese - Ferromanganese continued its rebound trend last week. Although its absolute valuation is low, its supply is still relatively loose. Supply increased slightly, with restarts concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Under the off - season demand, supply pressure still exists. Manufacturers' inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts continued to decline. In terms of demand, molten iron increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. Steel billet exports remained strong, and short - term molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. However, terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, but the improvement is insufficient. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. Some regions' spot prices increased slightly, and futures prices also rose. For example, the rebar spot price in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price increased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, while some steelmaking costs decreased. The profits of hot - rolled coil and rebar in different regions decreased to varying degrees. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 13 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 9.7 tons to 868.5 tons, a 1.1% increase. Rebar production increased by 4.6 tons to 212.2 tons, a 2.2% increase, with converter production increasing by 6.2 tons and electric furnace production decreasing by 1.6 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 15.7 tons to 1338.9 tons, a 1.2% decrease. Rebar inventory decreased by 7.0 tons to 551.1 tons, a 1.3% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.2 tons to 340.2 tons, a 1.5% decrease [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 0.7 to 9.7 tons, an 8.2% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 16.1 tons to 884.2 tons, a 1.9% increase. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 0.8 tons to 219.2 tons, a 0.4% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 10.8 tons to 330.7 tons, a 3.4% increase [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract for some varieties decreased significantly. For example, the basis of PB powder for the 09 contract decreased by 46.8 yuan/ton, a 49.8% decrease [3]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, mainly due to a decrease in shipments from Australia. The arrival volume at ports decreased slightly, mainly due to a decrease in the arrival of Brazilian ore. Based on shipment data, the average future arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The average daily ore - removal volume at 45 ports increased by 12.3 to 313.6 tons, a 4.1% increase [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13894.16 tons, a 0.1% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 137.6 to 8936.2 tons, a 1.6% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2 to 19 days, a 9.5% decrease [3]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend, while the spot market was weakly stable. The third - round spot price cut of coke was implemented on June 6, with a reduction of 70/75 yuan/ton, and the cumulative reduction was 120/135 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel mills proposed a fourth - round price cut on the 20th, which is expected to be implemented on the 23rd [6]. - **Supply**: Recently, environmental protection inspection teams have entered multiple northern provinces. Affected by environmental protection and other factors such as maintenance, the supply of coking in the northern region has tightened, and the operation rate of independent coking plants has declined [6]. - **Demand**: In June, molten iron production continued to remain above 2.4 million tons per day, but the blast furnace operation rate decreased slightly, and molten iron production continued the trend of peaking and falling [6]. - **Inventory**: Coking plant inventories decreased slightly, port inventories continued to decrease, and steel mill inventories also decreased. Downstream steel mills continued the rhythm of active de - stocking, and overall inventories were at a medium level [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend, and the spot market was weakly stable. The decline of domestic coking coal prices slowed down, and the prices of some coal mines rebounded slightly, but the overall market was still weak [6]. - **Supply**: In the Inner Mongolia region, many coal mines stopped production due to environmental protection and other factors. In the Shanxi region, supply decreased significantly due to accidents and other factors, and coal mines began to hold prices. Overall, the production of coal mines decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. For imported coal, the price of Mongolian coal rebounded slightly, and the port inventory pressure was still obvious. The import profit of seaborne coal continued to be inverted, and there was a recent price correction [6]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of coking plants began to decline, and the molten iron production of blast furnaces continued the trend of peaking and falling. Downstream users mainly replenished their inventories on - demand. Although the downstream demand still had some resilience, the overall demand was weakening [6]. - **Inventory**: Coal mine inventories continued to accumulate at a high level, and there was pressure to reduce prices for sales. Port inventories began to decline from a high level, and downstream users controlled their inventories. The overall inventory was at a medium level [6]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased, and the spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The cost of production in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, mainly concentrated in Ningxia and Shaanxi. The operation rate of production enterprises increased [7]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. The export of ferrosilicon may still maintain some resilience, but the marginal growth space is limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferrosilicon manufacturers decreased, but the absolute value was still high. The average available days of downstream ferrosilicon increased slightly [7]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased, and the spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The manganese ore supply and demand situation changed, with an increase in the shipment volume and a decrease in the arrival volume at ports [7]. - **Supply**: Ferromanganese production increased slightly, with restarts concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. The operation rate of production enterprises increased [7]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. The demand for ferromanganese from metal iron has not improved significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferromanganese manufacturers increased, and the average available days of downstream ferromanganese decreased slightly [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The overall market is characterized by weak domestic demand, with the market sentiment remaining cautious and the demand outlook being pessimistic, which restricts the upside potential. Most varieties are expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2][3][4][6][8] Summary by Category Steel - The steel futures market showed a slight upward trend today. The demand for thread has stabilized, while the demand for hot rolled coil has recovered. However, the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the negative feedback expectation still simmers. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the market is expected to trade in a range in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rose slightly today. The global supply is in the peak season, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. The market uncertainty is high, and the price is expected to trade in a range [3] Coke - The coke price was volatile during the day. The fourth round of price cuts was partially implemented. The overall inventory decreased, and the price is expected to trade in a narrow range under the influence of inventory pressure and geopolitical factors [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price was volatile during the day. The coal mine output decreased, the spot auction market improved slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The price is expected to trade in a narrow range [6] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon showed a pattern of rising and then falling during the day. The fundamentals of manganese silicon improved slightly, and the price of manganese ore is expected to decline further. The demand for ferrosilicon is fair, and both are temporarily bullish in the short term [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Steel - The steel market follows the fluctuations of coking coal and coke. Rebound short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options are recommended. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3050 yuan for rebar [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price due to the expected decline in hot - metal production, supply increase, and administrative reduction. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. The price range may shift down to 720 - 670 [4]. Coke - There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts in the future. For the 2509 contract, short - selling at high levels around 1380 - 1430 is recommended. A strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [6]. Coking Coal - Spot fundamentals have improved slightly. Short - selling at high levels around 800 - 850 for the 2509 contract is recommended. A strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction is rising. In the short term, the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the change in coal prices [7]. Silicomanganese - Supply pressure still exists. In the short term, the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the change in coke prices [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and futures prices also rose. The basis of steel showed a weak trend [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Some steel production costs changed, and the profits of some regions increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot - metal output remained unchanged, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%. Steel inventories decreased slightly [1]. Viewpoint - The steel market is affected by the raw material market and seasonal factors. Production is expected to remain high, and exports rebounded from a low level [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of various iron ore varieties decreased, and the basis of the 09 contract declined significantly [4]. Supply and Demand - Global shipments decreased slightly, mainly from Australia. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and demand is expected to remain stable in the short term [4]. Inventory - Port inventories increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventories also rose [4]. Viewpoint - There are risks of weakening demand in the off - season, and supply pressure will increase. The price is expected to decline [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, while spot prices were weakly stable. There are still expectations of price cuts in the future [6]. Supply and Demand - Supply decreased due to environmental protection, and demand showed a downward trend [6]. Inventory - Inventories at coking plants, ports, and steel mills all decreased [6]. Viewpoint - There are expectations of further price cuts. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were weakly stable. The basis was repaired [6]. Supply and Demand - Domestic production decreased slightly, and imported coal prices continued to decline. Demand showed a downward trend [6]. Inventory - Coal mine inventories and port inventories increased, and downstream inventories were at a medium level [6]. Viewpoint - Spot fundamentals improved slightly. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and some spot prices increased. The basis changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs decreased slightly, and losses decreased [7]. Supply and Demand - Production and demand both decreased [7]. Inventory - Inventories increased slightly [7]. Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction is rising, and the price is expected to be weak [7]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices increased. The basis changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs changed slightly, and profits improved [7]. Supply and Demand - Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased [7]. Inventory - Manganese ore inventories increased, and silicomanganese inventories increased [7]. Viewpoint - Supply pressure still exists, and the price is expected to decline [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The steel market is in a volatile range. The upward rebound trading story is not well - developed, and the cost - collapse narrative is also unsmooth. The price will enter a period of tug - of - war, and the rebound height of finished products is relatively limited. It is advisable to hedge at the upper limit of the range and rotate inventory during the volatile period. The steel basis maintains a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there may be a reverse - spread logic in the spot off - season [5]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot - end coking coal auctions continue to weaken, but the rate of unsuccessful auctions has decreased. Big mines have lowered long - term agreement prices. The market still expects coke price cuts. On the futures side, coking coal prices were affected by supply - side news but did not hold above 800. The black - chain index is weak, and the 20 - day line shows obvious pressure. It is recommended that industrial customers actively participate in hedging, and wait and see for unilateral trading [6]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable and follow the steel market. Ferrosilicon production has decreased in some regions, but demand has weakened, and costs have declined. Silicomanganese supply has increased, demand has weakened, and cost support has also weakened [7]. - Iron Ore: The overall situation of the iron ore market remains weak. Iron ore shipments are increasing, and port inventories are starting to accumulate. The downstream pressure is intensifying, and it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices and Changes**: - On June 17, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2974 yuan/ton (unchanged), HC2601 at 3091 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan, 0.10% increase), I2601 at 670 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan, - 0.15% decrease), J2601 at 1388 yuan/ton (up 13.5 yuan, 0.98% increase), and JM2601 at 807 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan, 1.13% increase). - For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2981 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan, 0.17% increase), HC2510 at 3093 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan, 0.13% increase), I2509 at 699 yuan/ton (down 0.5 yuan, - 0.07% decrease), J2509 at 1365.5 yuan/ton (up 13.5 yuan, 1.00% increase), and JM2509 at 789.5 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan, 0.70% increase) [2]. - **Spread and Ratio**: - On June 17, the spread between RB2510 and RB2601 was 7 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), between HC2510 and HC2601 was 2 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), between I2509 and I2601 was 29 yuan/ton (down 0.5 yuan), between J2509 and J2601 was - 22.5 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), and between JM2509 and JM2601 was - 17.5 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan). - The coil - to - rebar spread was 112 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.26 (up 0.02), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.73 (up 0.01), the rebar disk profit was 187.15 yuan/ton (up 2.83 yuan), and the coking disk profit was 315.47 yuan/ton (up 2.48 yuan) [2]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On June 17, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3100 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3160 yuan/ton respectively (all unchanged). The price of Tangshan billet was 2910 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and the Platts Index was 93.10 (down 1.15). The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3170 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), 3220 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 3150 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively. The billet - to - product spread was 190 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the price of PB ore at Rizhao Port was 716 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot price of coking coal at Ganqimao Port: Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 700 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal was 860 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 3 cleaned coal was 70 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Hebei Tangshan was 1015 yuan/ton. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port (ex - warehouse) was 1335 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **Basis**: On June 17, the basis of HC (main contract) was 77 yuan/ton (down 39 yuan), RB (main contract) was 119 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan), I (main contract) was 31 yuan/ton (unchanged), J (main contract) was 104.98 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan), and JM (main contract) was 30.5 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan) [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-16 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 目录 01 螺纹钢 02 焦煤焦炭 震 荡 区 间 ， 等 待 新 驱 动 盘 面 震 荡 运 行 ， 现 货 延 续 弱 势 03 铁矿石 宏 观 局 势 推 动 短 期 波 动 加 剧 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 螺纹钢 螺纹钢：震荡区间，等待新驱动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 铁水产量延续小幅回落的方向，幅度依旧比较弱，但本周钢联五材产量数据降得比较多，主要是电炉产量下降贡献比较大，主要原因还是在于长流 | | 供给 | 偏空 | 程钢厂尚可 ...

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Current building materials are reducing production and inventory, while plates are reducing production and increasing inventory. The demand for plates is showing a clear downward trend, and the difference lies in the decline range of demand. - With the suspension of domestic subsidies and the reduction of internal competition in the auto industry, the later - stage demand expectation remains weak. - This month, iron ore shipments are surging, and iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of inventory accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of ferrous metals. - Considering the weakening expectation of actual demand, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds, and hold short positions for now [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, there is obvious pressure on the upside of iron ore prices, mainly due to the high - level decline of hot metal, supply increase, and administrative reduction expectations, but the short - term decline of hot metal is limited. - In the medium - to - long term, the bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. With the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the iron ore price range may move down, with the reference range of 720 - 670 [4]. Coke - The spot fundamentals of coke are still relatively loose, and the expectation of a bottom - up rebound is difficult to be verified in the short term. The spot price has no rebound drive, and the futures price has fallen again. - There is an expectation of 1 - 2 more rounds of price cuts in the future. It is recommended to adopt a short - term high - selling strategy for the 2509 contract, and pay attention to risks due to increased volatility later [6]. Coking Coal - The expectation of a bottom - up rebound may be disproven, and the spot fundamentals lack a rebound drive. After the basis is repaired, the futures market will face hedging pressure again. - It is recommended to adopt a short - term high - selling strategy for the 2509 contract, and pay attention to risks due to increased volatility later [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has begun to increase recently. The cost side should pay attention to the change of coal prices, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. Ferromanganese - The supply pressure of ferromanganese still exists. The cost side should pay attention to the change of coke prices, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Most steel prices, including those of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have decreased. For example, the rebar spot price in East China decreased from 3110 to 3090 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2890 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of most steel products have increased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 13 to 160 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output remained unchanged at 241.8. The output of five major steel products decreased by 21.5 to 858.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.4%. The rebar output decreased by 10.9 to 207.6 million tons, a decrease of 5.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 9.2 to 1354.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The rebar inventory decreased by 12.4 to 558.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%, while the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.8 to 345.4 million tons, an increase of 1.4% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.5 to 8.9, a decrease of 14.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.1 to 868.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc., have decreased. The basis of the 09 contract for different varieties has also decreased significantly, for example, the 09 contract basis of PB fines decreased from 112.6 to 59.4 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 72.8 to 2609.3 million tons, an increase of 2.9%. The global shipment volume increased by 79.4 to 3510.4 million tons, an increase of 2.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 917.5 to 10313.8 million tons, an increase of 9.8% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 12.7 to 314.0 million tons, a decrease of 3.9%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 271.1 to 7258.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 682.2 to 8601.9 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 20.3 to 13846.94 million tons, an increase of 0.1%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke remained unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coke decreased by 28 and 26 respectively, with a decline of 2.0% and 1.9% respectively [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5 to 65.0 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.14% [6]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 million tons [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 15.3 to 971.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.6%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased to varying degrees [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipts remained unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coking coal decreased by 17 and 14 respectively, with a decline of 2.2% and 1.8% respectively [6]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 6.7 to 866.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The cleaned coal output decreased by 4.3 to 440.7 million tons, a decrease of 1.0% [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5 to 65.0 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The cleaned coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 12.5 to 284.0 million tons, an increase of 4.64%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 20.8 to 798.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.1 to 774.0 million tons, an increase of 0.4% [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions and contracts have decreased. For example, the 72% FeSi ferrosilicon spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5100 to 5050 yuan/ton [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions have changed slightly. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased from - 53.0 to - 426.5 [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased by 1.4 to 32.8, a decrease of 4.4%. The ferromanganese weekly output increased by 0.2 to 17.3 million tons, an increase of 0.9% [7]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 million tons, a decrease of 3.5%. The ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.4 to 12.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% [7]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.2 to 7.0 million tons, an increase of 3.3%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese increased by 0.9 to 19 million tons, an increase of 5.0% [7].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Recent steel prices rebounded, basis weakened, and spot entered a weak off - season. Demand is expected to remain weak due to the off - season and tariff suppression. Iron ore shipments are surging this month, and the iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of black metals. It is recommended to focus on opportunities to lay out short positions on rebounds, referring to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average of the October contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices remained stable or had small increases. For example, the spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 11 yuan to 3098 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of steel billets increased by 20 yuan to 2920 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 18 yuan to 147 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 7.0 tons to 218.5 tons, while the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.2 tons to 328.8 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 tons to 1363.8 tons. The rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 tons to 570.5 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 tons to 340.6 tons [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.5, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 tons to 882.2 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 tons to 229.0 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 6.0 tons to 320.9 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the upside of iron ore due to the decline of pig iron output from a high level, increased supply, and administrative reduction. In the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. Considering the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the price range of iron ore may move down, with a reference range of 720 - 670 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract of most iron ore types decreased significantly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased by 5.5 to 765.6 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 58.0 to 58.6 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 79.4 tons to 3510.4 tons, and the weekly arrivals at 45 ports increased by 72.8 tons to 2609.3 tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 tons to 10313.8 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons, and the weekly average daily ore - dispatching volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.7 tons to 314.0 tons. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 tons to 7258.3 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 682.2 tons to 8601.9 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 20.3 tons to 13846.94 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 tons to 8690.2 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days [3]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak and stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The spot may have one more round of price cuts but is approaching the phased bottom. The supply is affected by environmental protection, and the demand is showing a trend of reaching the peak and then declining. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coke on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 9 to 1154, and the 09 contract of coke increased by 7 to 1356. The 09 basis decreased by 7 to - 39 [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 987.0 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 tons to 127.0 tons, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 tons to 645.8 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 214.2 tons [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The decline of the spot price of coking coal has narrowed, and some coal mines have seen improved transactions. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coking coal on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 970, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 10 to 828. The 09 contract of coking coal decreased by 2 to 784, and the 01 contract increased by 2 to 793 [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 tons to 873.0 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 tons to 445.0 tons. The import of Mongolian coal has a slow - down in price decline, and the import profit of seaborne coal is still negative [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons. The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased slightly by 0.1 to 271.5 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons to 818.9 tons, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 tons to 770.9 tons, and the port inventory increased by 9.9 tons to 313.0 tons [5]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand is affected by both steel and non - steel sectors. The cost is short - term stable, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure remains, and the manganese ore supply and price have certain fluctuations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 10 to 5184, and the spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to 5100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.1 to 5603.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit increased by 4.1 to - 173.8 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferrosilicon output increased by 1.2 tons to 9.7 tons, and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises increased by 2.3 to 32.8% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 tons, and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 tons to 68 tons [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 56 to 5486, and the spot price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5430 yuan/ton [6]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: The global manganese ore shipments decreased by 9.5 tons to 61.7 tons, and the arrivals at domestic ports increased by 29.5 tons to 67.8 tons [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferromanganese output increased by 0.2 tons to 17.2 tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.3 to 35.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 tons to 12.6 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 407.0 tons [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel mills' production remains high with a slight decline, but apparent demand continues to fall, and hot-rolled coil inventory starts to accumulate. Real demand decline is being realized, and the overall demand expectation is still weak due to the off - season and tariff impacts. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Global iron ore shipments are increasing, reaching a high level this year, and the arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron is relatively stable, and the inventory is still in a destocking pattern. In the short - term, the price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the 09 contract should be treated with a bearish view in the medium - to - long term [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures show a volatile trend with a divergence between futures and spot. The third round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of one more round of cuts. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at an appropriate time [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures are expected to rebound from the bottom, but the spot fundamentals are still bearish. The supply is relatively high, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at a high price [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon production is increasing, and the supply pressure is rising during the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved slightly. The ferromanganese supply pressure also exists, and the demand is weak. The cost side should focus on coal price changes [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show small fluctuations. For example, the price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets remains unchanged, while the cost of some steel products has changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions has increased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8. The production of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4, and the rebar production decreased by 7.0 to 218.5, a significant decline of 3.1%. The hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 to 328.8, a 2.9% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 to 1363.8, and the rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 to 570.5, a 1.8% decrease. The hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 to 340.6, a 2.4% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 10.2, a 1.8% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 to 882.2, a 3.5% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the basis of the 09 contract for most iron ore powders decreased significantly [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decreased, while the prices of some iron ore indexes increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 385.2 to 2536.5, a 17.9% increase, and the global shipment volume increased by 242.3 to 3431.0, a 7.6% increase [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 12.7 to 314.0, a 3.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 39.9 to 13826.69, a 0.3% decrease, and the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, while the price of quasi - first - grade coke in Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 51 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a 0.4% decrease, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 to 987.0, the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 to 127.0, a 14.0% increase, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 to 645.8, a 1.4% decrease [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 51 yuan/ton. The 09 contract price of coking coal increased slightly [5]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price decreased by 3.2 to 193 US dollars/ton [5]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 to 873.0, a 1.4% decrease, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 to 445.0, a 1.9% decrease [5]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a 0.4% decrease, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased slightly, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 to 818.9, a 3.2% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 to 770.9, a 2.0% decrease [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price increased by 70 to 5174, a 1.4% increase, and the ferromanganese主力合约 price increased by 14 to 5552, a 0.3% increase [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 11.2 to 5619.8, a 0.2% decrease, and the production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased slightly [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production increased by 1.2 to 9.7, a 14.6% increase, and the ferromanganese production remained relatively stable [6]. Demand - The weekly output of ferrosilicon - chromium products increased by 0.2 to 17.2, a 1.2% increase, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferromanganese increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 to 6.8, a 9.8% decrease, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises for ferromanganese increased slightly [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The black metal industry is currently in a weak state, with the narrative of "weak supply and demand" in the steel industry, and the off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The prices of various products such as rebar, coking coal, coke, and iron ore are under pressure [3][5][7][35][85] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: The daily average pig iron output has declined for 3 consecutive weeks to around 242, and it may continue to decline slowly. The raw material support is weak, and the trigger conditions for rapid market - based production cuts are not fully met [7] - **Demand**: There is no significant weakening in demand for now, but there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, especially the possible decline in steel exports. The SMM high - frequency export data reached a high point in May [7] - **Inventory**: It can still maintain seasonal destocking, with a low total inventory level, and the industry is in a state of active destocking [7] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis has slightly expanded, and the futures price remains at a discount to the spot price. As of Friday, the basis of rb2505 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 79, a slight expansion of 15 from the previous week [7] - **Profit**: Long - process steel production still has profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, mostly in the negative range [7] - **Valuation**: The production links in the industrial chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuations and still room for compression in absolute valuations [7] - **Macro and Policy**: There may be fluctuations in the trade war, and there is a short - term vacuum in macro - policies. There is no new definite information on industrial production restrictions [7] - **Investment View**: It is recommended to wait and see. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the next important observation window is the major meeting in July [7] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and open - position management and appropriately rotate inventories. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar when it is high. For spot - futures trading, conduct positive basis trading for hot - rolled coil [7] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The apparent demand for five major steel products is slightly better than expected, but the overall off - season pressure is increasing. The pig iron output continues to decline, and many steel mills choose to carry out timely maintenance [35] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mines face increasing shipment pressure, with continued production cuts and inventory accumulation. Mongolian coal prices have collectively declined, and the price difference between domestic and international seaborne coal remains large [35] - **Coke Supply**: Coke supply is sufficient. Although the production has decreased slightly this week, coke enterprises still have profits due to the rapid decline in the cost of coking coal [35] - **Inventory**: Downstream enterprises control the arrival of goods, and upstream enterprises face increasing shipment pressure. The inventory of coal and coke continues to show a bearish trend [35] - **Basis/Spread**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts [35] - **Profit**: Steel mills still have good profits, but some have reduced production. Coke enterprises still have profits despite the decline in data [35] - **Summary**: The market continues the previous downward trend, and the black chain index continues to trade on the off - season and the collapse of raw material costs. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for coal and coke [35] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, mainly short. For arbitrage, conduct a positive spread trade between JM9 and JM1 [35] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipment has shown a seasonal rebound, and the overall supply is in a neutral state. Attention should be paid to the possible significant increase in shipment due to the annual and quarterly production - volume rush of some mines in June [85] - **Demand**: The pig iron output of steel mills has continued to decline, mainly due to the routine maintenance of large blast furnaces. The steel mills' profits have shrunk, and there are concerns about the stability of steel exports [85] - **Inventory**: With the expected increase in supply in June and the downward trend of pig iron output, port inventories will gradually stabilize or even show a slight increase [85] - **Profit**: Although the steel mills' profits have declined, the pressure is not great, and the pig iron output can still remain at a high level in the short term [85] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is relatively neutral as the pig iron output is at a high level [85] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an expectation of increased supply in the furnace material sector in June, and the pig iron output is at risk of decline. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state [85] - **Investment View**: The market is expected to be volatile [85] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting when the price is above $100. For arbitrage, close all positive spread trades between the September and January contracts [85]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are all ★☆☆, including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon is under pressure, with weak demand expectations and fluctuating prices. While there are signs of supply-demand imbalances and negative feedback, the market should not be overly bearish considering the steel sentiment [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. Hot-rolled coil's supply and demand both dropped, and inventory also decreased at a slower pace. Iron ore production is still relatively high, and the supply pressure is large. The negative feedback expectation keeps fermenting. Domestic demand is weak, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. The market sentiment is low, and the market is weak but may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market continued to correct today. The global shipment of iron ore decreased compared with the previous period and was weaker than the same period last year. The arrival volume in China decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to decline. Terminal demand entered the off-season, and the iron ore production decreased slightly last week. It is expected that the short-term reduction of iron ore production is limited. Overall, the supply and demand of iron ore have a certain marginal weakening pressure, and the macro-level benefits have been reflected in the previous rebound. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Coke - Coke prices continued to decline. Iron ore production decreased slightly. The first round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but there were still profits, so the daily coke production remained at a relatively high level this year. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders did not make any purchases. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continued to decline. The production of coking coal mines remained at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut-down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, and the transaction price continued to decline. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the inventory pressure at the production end continued to accumulate rapidly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal remains at a significant discount, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [5] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Ferrosilicon manganese prices dropped significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill ended, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts recently, the weekly production data increased slightly. It is judged that the current production level has led to a decrease in inventory, and the fundamentals have improved slightly. According to the expected arrival data of manganese ore, about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly, and the supply of ferrosilicon manganese increased slightly. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and market expectations have changed. The impact of tariffs should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal remained basically the same, and the demand remained stable at a high level. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The on-balance-sheet inventory decreased slightly. The tariff trend should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [7]