Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of U.S. trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs by President Trump on Japan and other trade partners, which have led to fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly the USD/JPY [1][2] - Following Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on Japan and other countries, the USD/JPY exchange rate rose to its highest point in over two weeks, indicating market reactions to trade tensions [1] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are at an impasse, primarily due to Japan's reluctance to compromise on rice market protection, which is affecting the value of the yen [2] Group 2 - The Euro is holding steady against the dollar as the market speculates on the possibility of the EU receiving exemptions from U.S. tariffs, which could influence currency valuations [2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice before the end of the year, while the European Central Bank is only expected to lower rates once, affecting the relative strength of the euro against the dollar [3]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The report highlights the exposure of fiscal risks, indicating potential global liquidity shocks [3][7][18] - A shift from globalization to confrontation has disrupted the stable state of the global economy, with the long-term downward trend of 10-year US Treasury yields being broken [7][18] - The divergence between US Treasury yields and the dollar reflects an extreme pricing of fiscal risks [9][14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic deflation expectations are easing, activating a persistent accumulation of excess liquidity [3][57] - The report notes that actual interest rates are declining from high levels, which alleviates the financing costs for various economic sectors [78] - The report indicates that the actual dollar index is building a mid-term top, which may relieve external pressures on the economic cycle [82] Group 3: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing rapid rotation within a narrow range, driven by excess liquidity [3][57] - Small-cap stocks are expected to outperform due to the accumulation of excess liquidity since 2024 [118][121] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including AI, robotics, and military industries, which have shown resilience amid trade tensions [117] Group 4: Industry Allocation Insights - The report emphasizes the correlation between excess liquidity and sectoral excess returns, particularly in sectors like electrical machinery and chemical materials [121][124] - The report suggests that the market is not driven by improved economic expectations but rather by key technological breakthroughs that shift deflation expectations [91] - The report indicates that the speed of industry rotation has increased, suggesting a dynamic market environment [104]

摘要周三（7月9日）欧盘时段，现货黄金延续下行势头，最新黄金价格报3284.47美元/盎司，跌幅 0.51%，美元指数维持近日的反弹趋势，而限制了黄金多头，另外，金价走势也处于强劲阻力下方，空 头占据优势，而使得多头动力有限。 周三（7月9日）欧盘时段，现货黄金延续下行势头，最新黄金价格报3284.47美元/盎司，跌幅0.51%， 美元指数维持近日的反弹趋势，而限制了黄金多头，另外，金价走势也处于强劲阻力下方，空头占据优 势，而使得多头动力有限。 【要闻速递】 那么，短期来看，本周还将重点关注美联储会议纪要，若纪要偏鸽，表明决策者对经济前景持谨慎态 度，美元可能面临回调压力，金价将获得支撑止跌反弹走强。 反之，若强调维持高利率的必要性，则有望提振美元走强，打压金价回落。进一步触及周图中轨线支撑 目标。 【技术分析】 基本面上，特朗普将关税协议延长至8月1日开始再度征收，其短暂的缓冲期，和美国与部分国家达成部 分协议，令市场获得喘息机会，而打压金价回落走低。 黄金价格昨天早盘冲高回落，日内主要震荡为主。晚间受消息面影响大跌，最低触及3287一线，日线收 阴。单看日线今天还有低点，但是接近3280是周线关键支撑， ...

点击图片▲收听音频 1. 本文内容精选自2025年7月8日《每天听见吴晓波》的音频，会员可收听全部内 容，非会员可试听前1分钟。 【点击此处，收听音频】 2. 6月24日—7月25日期间购买《每天听见吴晓波》，可享"买1年得2年"的福利，还 送定制笔记本1本。 【点击此处，参与活动】 口述 / 吴晓波 （微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 几天前的7月3号下午，美国众议院以218票对214票的微弱优势，通过了特朗普政府的"大而 美"法案。 这项法案从4月草拟以来，就因为大幅减税、缩减联邦援助等内容而争议不断，并引发了美国两 党的激烈对抗。 无论是在众议院还是参议院，法案的投票都呈现出泾渭分明的党派划线。经过几个月的拉锯， 法案最终涉险过关。 7月4号是美国的独立日，特朗普选择在这一天正式签署"大而美"法案，他宣称法案是"摆脱国家 衰落的独立宣言"，是对独立日的"献礼"。那这项法案到底说了什么，又为什么引发了巨大的争 议呢？我们来看法案的具体内容。 首先，"大而美"法案永久性地延长了特朗普在2017年第一个任期内通过的企业和个人减税措 施，进一步削减了企业和富人的税负，但却使底层民众的处境恶化。 具体来看，法案规定将美国 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, increasing by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in various industrial sectors [1][4] Group 2 - The decrease in PPI is attributed to seasonal price declines in raw materials, increased green energy production leading to lower energy prices, and downward pressure on prices in export-oriented industries due to a slowing global trade environment [4][5] - The cumulative CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, indicating weak domestic price levels and insufficient consumer demand, which provides ample policy space for further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus [3][5] - The decline in industrial prices is exacerbated by overcapacity in several sectors, prompting discussions on capacity reduction as part of a new round of supply-side reforms [5]

Group 1 - The 23rd China International Conference in Finance (CICF) was successfully held in Shenzhen, showcasing its growing influence in the global financial academic community [1][2] - The conference received 3,056 submissions, with 1,758 valid papers and 236 accepted papers, highlighting its significance in the finance and economics field [2] - The event recorded a registration of 1,345 participants, marking a new high for in-person attendance, emphasizing the conference's academic stature and international impact [2] Group 2 - Nobel laureate Thomas J. Sargent delivered a keynote speech on optimal fiscal policy based on short-term debt, providing new insights for sustainable fiscal policy design amid high government debt levels globally [2] - The conference agenda spanned three days, featuring 60 academic sub-sessions and 472 presentations covering various cutting-edge topics in finance, including AI-driven capital markets and asset pricing [3] - The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and other institutions actively participated in organizing and evaluating papers, contributing to the establishment of a global financial research platform [3]

泰国副财长表示，敦促央行进一步放松 货币政策， 财政政策将全力刺激经济，准备超过400亿泰铢的资 金用于应对美国关税影响。 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.1% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1% for the first half of the year[1][2] - The main drivers for the CPI increase were a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in vegetable prices and a rise in domestic energy prices due to international crude oil price increases[2][3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.4%, indicating a weak overall price level[3][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In June 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, widening from a decline of 3.3% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8% for the first half of the year[1][2][8] - The PPI decline was primarily influenced by weak domestic demand and oversupply, leading to accelerated price declines in coal, steel, and cement[2][9] - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, marking four consecutive months of such a decline[8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the CPI may return to negative territory in July, likely around -0.2%, due to external economic pressures and high base effects from the previous year[7][12] - The PPI is expected to continue its month-on-month decline in July, but the rate of decline may slightly narrow, with a year-on-year decline projected to remain around -3.6%[12]

·五矿期货：黄金在美国宽财政预期已逐步兑现的影响下表现将会相对偏弱 ·国投期货：贵金属延续调整等待关税进展驱动 ·徽商期货：避险属性带来有力支撑金价短期或以高位震荡为主 ·Zaner Metals：市场对贸易紧张局势缓和的预期直接削弱了黄金的避险需求 ·FXEmpire市场分析师Christopher Lewis认为，考虑到很多地缘政治事件，以及围绕关税战的不确定性， 黄金仍长期看涨。但就目前的情况而言，它仍在消除一些过度的泡沫。现在只是没有人愿意在市场上投 入大量资金，但从长期角度来看，回调将继续吸引买家。 ·FXEmpire：黄金仍长期看涨回调将继续吸引买家 （文章来源：新华财经） ·徽商期货认为，特朗普政府最新的关税政策引发了市场对全球贸易摩擦升级的担忧，避险需求提升推 涨金价，但美元指数走高在一定程度上限制了金价的上涨空间。从短期来看，关税政策对美国经济的影 响将逐渐显现，经济增长或面临一定压力。美国通胀仍有走高预期，在"类滞胀"风险加剧的背景下，美 联储政策路径依然充满不确定性。此外，关税政策也充满不确定性，叠加地缘政治风险上升，避险属性 会给贵金属价格带来有力的支撑，金价短期或以高位震荡为主。 · ...

Group 1 - UBS's report addresses ten challenging questions from investors regarding global economic conditions and strategic outlook [1] - The report highlights that current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, with global growth tracking at a mere 1.3% year-on-year, placing it in the 8th lowest historical percentile [1] - The report indicates that the recent dollar sell-off is not indicative of a long-term depreciation trend, as it lacks key elements seen in previous cycles, such as improved economic growth in other regions [2] Group 2 - The initial impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation data is expected to manifest in the July CPI report, with significant effects potentially delayed by one to two months [3] - There is a notable discrepancy between reported trade data and container shipping data, suggesting that foreign exporters are not significantly lowering prices to absorb tariff costs [4] - The U.S. budget deficit is primarily influenced by the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about supply issues persisting, but historical demand fluctuations are expected to absorb any supply increases [5] Group 3 - Evidence suggests a reduction in foreign investors' exposure to U.S. assets, with April data indicating asset sell-offs, although the continuation of this trend remains uncertain [6] - The U.S. stock market typically outperforms during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is largely driven by the U.S. economy, with European markets showing unexpected resilience [7] - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to provide a 45 basis point boost to economic growth by 2026, despite initially increasing the deficit [9] Group 4 - Central banks globally are adjusting their policies in response to tariff impacts, with expectations of 1-3 rate cuts, while the Fed faces a dilemma balancing inflation and employment concerns [10] - China has implemented fiscal stimulus measures equivalent to 1.5-2% of GDP, with further monetary easing anticipated, including a potential 20-30 basis point rate cut [11]