Core Viewpoint - The spending plan proposed by Trump is expected to improve the fiscal deficit according to Vought, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget [1] Group 1 - The spending proposal aims to address the fiscal deficit issue in the United States [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the "Beautiful Act" proposed by the Trump administration, which focuses on tax reforms and budget modifications in the United States. Core Points and Arguments - The "Beautiful Act" aims to extend and upgrade existing tax reduction policies, including personal income tax rate reductions, standard deduction settings, and estate tax exemptions, with an expected fiscal expansion of approximately $4 trillion for residents. However, the permanent nature of the personal income tax rate could lead to a cumulative deficit of about $10.2 trillion over the next decade [1][2][3]. - The corporate tax rate remains unchanged at 21%, with only minor adjustments in areas such as capital investment expensing, depreciation calculations, and profit shifting to avoid excessive fiscal pressure [1][2]. - To ensure government funding, the "Beautiful Act" requires an increase of approximately $4 trillion in the debt ceiling, alongside spending cuts in areas like Medicaid, Affordable Care Act subsidies, food stamps, and student loans [1][3]. - The Senate review process for the "Beautiful Act" may involve modifications, as the Senate can amend provisions that violate budget rules. The final version must be agreed upon by both the House and Senate and signed by the President to take effect [4]. Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - There are internal divisions within the Republican Party regarding the "Beautiful Act," with some senators opposing the scale of the debt ceiling increase or the adequacy of spending cuts. The critical deadlines include a hard constraint period from late July to early August, with September 30 being the final deadline for budget resolution [5][6]. - If the "Beautiful Act" fails to pass on time, it could lead to a sovereign debt default for the U.S. government, increasing fiscal policy uncertainty and negatively impacting the economy, including decreased consumer confidence and worsened corporate profit expectations [2][7]. - The act includes new tax benefits for residents, such as deductions for tip income and overtime pay, and the establishment of Magma accounts for U.S.-born children to support education, entrepreneurship, or home purchases [3].

Group 1 - The White House and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) are in a dispute over the Trump administration's fiscal policies, particularly regarding the delay of electric vehicle infrastructure funding [1][3] - The GAO ruled that the Trump administration's withholding of funds for the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program (NEVI) was illegal, violating the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 [3] - The White House has criticized the GAO's motives, claiming it has become a partisan tool and questioning its legal standing [3][4] Group 2 - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected that the Trump administration's "Big Beautiful Bill" could lead to a federal deficit increase of trillions of dollars, contrasting sharply with the White House's claims [1][5] - The CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2025 and increase to $2.7 trillion by 2035, with adjusted deficits projected to be 6.1% of GDP by 2035 [5] - The White House has accused the CBO of using flawed predictive models and being biased towards the Democratic Party, citing a lack of Republican donations among its staff [5][6]

Group 1 - Mahathir expressed that the U.S. cannot prevent China's rise due to its capabilities and strength, which are comparable to Western countries [1][3] - He criticized Trump's policies, stating that they reflect a lack of serious consideration and are detrimental to both the U.S. and global stability [1][3] - Mahathir believes that the U.S. is unable to stop China's ascent, as China has existed far longer and is destined to become a leading global power [3] Group 2 - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are seen as an attempt to salvage U.S. global dominance by undermining China's economic foundation, but they have led to increased costs for American consumers [3][5] - Mahathir anticipates that Trump will have to cancel these tariffs within three months due to the pressure from other nations negotiating for lower rates [5] - Concerns were raised about the U.S. government's rising debt and its implications for the economy, with a shift in focus from tariff disputes to fiscal issues [7] Group 3 - The recent legislation in Florida recognizing gold and silver as legal tender is viewed as a challenge to the Federal Reserve's policies, reflecting a growing skepticism towards the dollar [5] - High-profile business leaders, including JPMorgan's CEO, have expressed doubts about the effectiveness of the U.S. government's hardline strategies against China, advocating for cooperative solutions instead [7]

Core Viewpoint - The OECD has revised down its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, reflecting increased trade barriers and economic uncertainty [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The OECD predicts that global economic growth will be particularly weak in 2025, with a global output increase of only 2.5%, and the U.S. economy growing by just 1.1% [3]. - The report highlights that the economic slowdown is concentrated in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, while China and other economies are expected to see smaller downgrades [3]. Inflation Trends - The overall inflation rate for G20 countries is expected to gradually ease from 6.2% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, with trade barriers' inflation impact offset by falling oil prices and slowing economic growth [4]. - The U.S. is an exception, with inflation rates projected to be higher than previously expected, at 3.2% and 2.8% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. Trade Barriers and Economic Risks - The report indicates that rising trade barriers and policy uncertainty are likely to further suppress global growth and increase inflation [7]. - The potential for increased tariffs by the U.S. could lead to retaliatory measures from trade partners, exacerbating financial market risks and reducing global demand for key commodities [7]. Policy Recommendations - The OECD suggests that countries should prioritize avoiding further trade fragmentation and barriers, advocating for multilateral cooperation to reduce tariffs and trade tensions [8]. - It emphasizes the need for cautious monetary policy to ensure public debt sustainability and to promote domestic investment and growth [8]. Investment Climate - The OECD's chief economist noted that investment has been declining since the global financial crisis, which hinders economic growth, and called for bold policy reforms to stimulate investment in the digital and knowledge economy [9].

证券研究报告 基础材料 波涌回调藏富路，且将机遇入囊中 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 03 日│中国内地 中期策略 压力与机遇并存，把握回调后的战略配置机遇 "逆全球化"背景下，黄金投资框架发生变化，在矿产金供给相对稳定的前 提下，央行等资产配置需求的大规模增加将利于金价长期上涨。美国通胀预 期、财政赤字、降息预期或均利好黄金，看好金价在特朗普任期内涨至 4500 美金/盎司以上。针对铜，短期需谨防关税扰动下需求提前透支后的回调风 险，长期看好其供需格局的持续改善。针对铝，25H1 光伏抢装和抢出口导 致需求高增长，尽管三季度或存在需求走弱预期，但电解铝价格下跌幅度或 有限；成本下降和供给硬约束或帮助电解铝利润在 25H2-26 年再扩张。针 对钢铁，25 年供给侧优化或重启，铁矿供需格局或趋松，钢价上行空间有 限但行业利润有望持续改善。 黄金：理解边际定价逻辑，特朗普任期或突破 4500 美金/盎司 在历次黄金上涨大周期中，全球经济大变局往往强化特定要素，催生新的边 际买家，重塑黄金投资框架。理解边际买家对价格的主导作用，有助于理解 2022 年以来金价的持续上涨。我们认为，除非美国恢复高增长低通胀并行的 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.03 关税博弈拉长，淡季压力渐显 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 ——有色及贵金属周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) | 兰洋(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880522080001 | S0880123070158 | 本报告导读： 特朗普关税政策遭遇美国司法挑战，后续关税以其他形式出台的不确定性增加，美 国国内外对关税的博弈时间将被拉长，或导致金价波动加剧。国内而言，下游淡季 需求压力逐步显现，工业品短期或有所承压。 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 报 告 [Table_subIndustry] 白银：金融与商品属性影响下，白银价格波动或更大。①价格：5 月 30 日当周 SHFE 白银跌 0.27%至 8218 元/千克，COMEX 银跌 1.59%至 33.08 美元/盎司， 伦敦银现跌 1.51%至 32 ...

Group 1 - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that US government bonds "will never default," despite warnings from industry leaders about a potential collapse in the bond market [1][3] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed concerns at the Reagan National Economic Forum, indicating that excessive fiscal spending and quantitative easing could lead to cracks in the bond market, although he is uncertain when a crisis might occur [3] - Goldman Sachs President John Waldron highlighted that the focus is shifting from tariff disputes to the rising government debt, identifying the budget debate and fiscal condition as the biggest macroeconomic risks [3] Group 2 - The US government debt ceiling is set at $36.1 trillion, which was reached in early January, leading the Treasury to rely on "extraordinary measures" to avoid default [4] - Analysts predict that the fiscal deficit for the 2026 fiscal year could reach $2.2 trillion, with a deficit rate of 7%, exceeding market expectations, which may increase supply pressure on US bonds [4] - The rising deficit is expected to push up US bond yields and exacerbate the fiscal burden, potentially becoming a source of ongoing volatility for dollar assets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is pushing to sell a 1 million barrel diesel fuel reserve, which was established for winter heating in the Northeast, and plans to completely close this emergency stockpile, arguing that it has rarely been used for its original purpose, thus making the sale a more effective use of resources [1][2] Group 1: Sale and Financial Implications - The sale of the diesel reserve is expected to generate $100 million in revenue for the federal government to help reduce the budget deficit, although the transaction requires congressional approval [1] - The sale aligns with the Biden administration's previous authorization to sell and close a similar gasoline emergency reserve [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the international diesel futures market reacted quickly, with diesel prices rising by 3.5% on the day of the news, maintaining a 1.9% increase by 10:46 AM New York time [1] Group 3: Historical Context and Usage - The reserve, created during the Clinton administration, was intended to provide approximately 10 days of emergency diesel supply for Northeast residents, covering the transport time from the Gulf of Mexico to New York Harbor [2] - Although the reserve has rarely been used for its intended purpose, it did provide fuel support during Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and during several severe snowstorms [2] Group 4: Legislative and Strategic Considerations - The increasing skepticism regarding the value of the reserve is attributed to the rise in natural gas usage and the shift in home heating methods, alongside the absence of large-scale heating oil crises in recent years [2] - The push for the sale may reignite debates about national energy strategy and fiscal priorities, especially given previous criticisms of the Biden administration's gasoline reserve sale [2]

Group 1 - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the loss of the last "AAA" rating among major international rating agencies, primarily due to the increasing scale of U.S. government debt and its interest payment ratio [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, predicts that U.S. debt could reach $50 trillion by 2035, suggesting that Moody's has underestimated the risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Goldman Sachs' president John Waldron indicates that the focus in the bond market is shifting from tariff disputes to the rising U.S. government debt, which is pushing up long-term interest rates, particularly the 30-year Treasury yield, to its highest level in nearly two decades [1] Group 2 - Concerns among foreign investors regarding U.S. Treasury bonds are rising due to high inflation and a weakening dollar, which could diminish the actual value of their holdings [2] - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes highlighted that the volatility in the U.S. bond market poses risks to financial stability, with potential long-term impacts on the U.S. economy if the dollar's safe-haven status changes [2] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $34 trillion, with the government caught in a vicious cycle of fiscal deficits, borrowing, and high-interest repayments [2] Group 3 - The pressure from maturing U.S. debt is described as "rolling," with a significant increase in the monthly maturity scale since the Fed's interest rate hikes began in 2022 [3] - The U.S. national debt reached its statutory limit at the beginning of the year, restricting new debt issuance, which could lead to increased maturity pressure if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt ceiling before August [3] - The U.S. debt crisis reflects broader concerns about government credit and is fundamentally a monetary crisis, emphasizing the need for balance in domestic inflation control and external dollar confidence [3]