Core Viewpoint - The recent "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed by the U.S. Congress is expected to further increase the fiscal deficit, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy in the medium term [3][4][5]. Group 1: Impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - The act is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion from FY2025 to FY2035, surpassing the previous estimate of $2.8 trillion [5]. - The act extends tax cuts from Trump's first term but reduces government spending through measures like cutting child tax credits and lowering renewable energy subsidies [4][5]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the annual fiscal deficit could exceed $2 trillion, which is over 6% of GDP, indicating a significant fiscal challenge ahead [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context of Tariff Revenue - Historically, tariffs were a major source of U.S. government revenue, accounting for up to 90% of total revenue from 1790 to 1860, but this has significantly declined over the years [6][7]. - By 2024, tariffs are expected to contribute approximately 1.6% to total U.S. fiscal revenue, which is a modest recovery compared to historical levels [8]. Group 3: Recent Trends in Tariff Revenue - In June, U.S. tariff revenue exceeded $27 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates, indicating a potential short-term boost to fiscal income [9][10]. - The increase in tariff revenue may be influenced by temporary factors, such as strong import activity, which may not be sustainable in the long run [10][11]. Group 4: Uncertainties Surrounding Tariff Policy - The sustainability of current tariff rates is uncertain, as potential negotiations with trading partners could lead to reductions in tariffs, impacting future revenue [11][12]. - The overall economic impact of tariff policies on U.S. growth and fiscal revenue remains unclear, with potential retaliatory measures from other countries posing additional risks [12][13]. Group 5: Need for Comprehensive Fiscal Solutions - Relying solely on tariff revenue to address the growing fiscal deficit is insufficient, as even optimistic projections suggest limited contributions relative to the overall deficit [14]. - Achieving medium-term fiscal balance will require a multifaceted approach beyond just increasing tariff revenues [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions will show a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the repeated negotiations on reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should focus on the 78000 support level [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected that the main contract price will fluctuate widely in the range of 2950 - 3250 this week. Mid - term, it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices. For aluminum, the current aluminum price is running at a high level, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected to be under short - term high - level pressure. The main contract should focus on the 20800 pressure level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected that the market will be mainly in a weak and volatile state, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the mine end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; in a pessimistic scenario, the zinc price may decline. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium - to - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, but the market sentiment is currently stable. The nickel fundamentals change little, and the cost support for refined nickel weakens. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to the range of 118000 - 126000 [10]. Tin - In the short term, macro disturbances are large. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high prices, and pay attention to the resumption progress in Myanmar and US tariff policies [13]. Stainless Steel - Currently, macro uncertainties increase, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The nickel - iron price remains low, weakening cost support. The supply - side production cuts are less than expected, and demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short term, the market will be mainly in a volatile state, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the balance surplus may increase recently. The market will be in a state of game between sentiment and fundamentals, and it is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, with the main contract referring to the range of 60000 - 65000 [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.13% to 78720 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss was - 583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.18 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.30% to 20790 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 150.5 yuan/ton to - 1324 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2511 - 2512) increased by 25 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.13% to 22430 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 86.06 yuan/ton to - 1524 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons month - on - month. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 1.29% to 122150 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 was - 202 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 0.11% to 904 yuan/nickel point [10]. Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production was 31800 tons, a decrease of 3220 tons month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 19157 tons, an increase of 10325 tons month - on - month [10]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.64% to 266700 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 848.75 yuan/ton to - 17105.21 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 470 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13449 tons, an increase of 3588 tons month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.39% to 12700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2508 - 2509) decreased by 85 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - In April, the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons month - on - month. The 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in Indonesia (Qinglong) remained unchanged at 36.00 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.16% to 63750 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 1460 yuan/ton to - 1600 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, an increase of 6010 tons month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93875 tons, a decrease of 145 tons month - on - month [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the international gold price showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the international silver price broke through $39 per ounce, reaching a nearly 14 - year high. Trump postponed the tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, but sent tax - levy letters to multiple trading partners, and the overseas tariff disturbance still exists. His announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper in the US starting from August 1st drove up the price of US copper, and silver rose 4.7% last Friday due to its industrial attributes and the momentum of a catch - up rally, hitting a new high [2][3][6]. - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that only a few of the 19 policymakers supported a rate cut this month, and most officials were worried about the inflation pressure that Trump's trade tariffs might bring. There are increasing rumors that Powell may be forced to resign [3][6]. - The market has become desensitized to tariffs, and risk assets have not shown significant adjustments. However, the 50% tariff on imported copper has significantly affected the US copper price. It is expected that the catch - up rally of silver prices will continue [3][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 773.56 | - 3.50 | - 0.45 | 181932 | 178255 | Yuan/Gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 769.30 | 1.50 | 0.20 | 32652 | 211814 | Yuan/Gram | | COMEX Gold | 3370.30 | 34.30 | 1.03 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9040 | 121 | 1.36 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/Kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9028 | 168 | 1.90 | 632508 | 3287648 | Yuan/Kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 39.08 | 2.04 | 5.49 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The international gold price was volatile and slightly stronger last week, and the international silver price reached a nearly 14 - year high. Trump's tariff policies brought both buffer periods and disturbances. The Fed's policymakers were divided on rate cuts, and rumors about Powell's possible resignation are increasing [3][6]. - The market has become desensitized to tariffs, but the 50% tariff on imported copper affected the US copper price. Silver reached a new high due to its industrial attributes and catch - up momentum, and its catch - up rally is expected to continue. This week, focus on the US June CPI, retail data, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting, and the Fed's release of the Beige Book [9]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 227,000, the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level in two months. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week was 1.965 million, still the highest since the end of 2021 [10]. - The Eurozone's July Sentix investor confidence index was 4.5, the highest since February 2022. The Eurozone's May retail sales increased by 1.8% year - on - year [10]. - China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported at 73.9 million ounces (about 2298.55 tons), an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month, the eighth consecutive month of increase [10]. - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper in the US, effective August 1, 2025. The US imports nearly half of its copper, mostly from Chile [10]. - Fed Governor Waller said the Fed could consider a rate cut in July, and should adjust its asset holdings and reduce the bank reserve scale. Fed's Daly said the Fed may cut rates twice this year, and it's time to consider rate adjustments [11]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of precious metals prices, inventory, non - commercial net long positions, spreads, ratios, and their relationships with other economic indicators such as inflation expectations, the US dollar index, and bond yields [16][17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,695 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the position of the main contract is 402,890 lots, up 35,080 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 76,228 lots, up 2,828 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,229 lots, down 315 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is 5 yuan, up 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, up 0.72 US dollars; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 117,000 tons, up 16,450 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 7,624.27 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - There are frequent rumors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, but they are not confirmed and need further tracking. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1st [2]. 3.7 Supply - side Analysis - The spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly this period. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have no news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the Southwest region has decreased. The resumption of production in Baoshan is positive, but the scale in Nujiang and Dehong is lower than expected. Sichuan manufacturers mainly focus on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants, with no significant increase in the overall operating rate [2]. 3.8 Demand - side Analysis - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. In the organic silicon market, the spot price has increased, and production profits have recovered, supporting the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, mainstream enterprises have cut production, and downstream photovoltaic demand has declined, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, with inventory increasing and prices flat, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals and new energy metals, presenting different outlooks for each. For example, gold is expected to be in high - level oscillation, while silver is predicted to rise strongly, and copper is expected to be in a long - term upward trend with short - term fluctuations [1]. - There are uncertainties in the market due to factors such as Trump's tariff policies, Fed's monetary policy, and global economic trends, which have an impact on the prices of different metals [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core View**: High - level oscillation [1]. - **Main Logic**: The Fed's monetary easing is likely due to high - tariff policies and potential Powell resignation. In the long run, many countries' fiscal expansion and central banks' gold - buying continue, and there are still many uncertainties [1]. - **Price Range**: [765 - 795] [1]. - **Strategy**: Gold has strong support around 760. Long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, and investors can consider long - term positions [4]. Silver - **Core View**: Strong upward movement [1]. - **Main Logic**: Trump's 30% tariff on Mexico affects the friction costs of major silver mines. The long - term price is influenced by base metals and gold prices [1][3]. - **Price Range**: [9000 - 9375] [1]. - **Strategy**: With support at 9000, adopt a long - position approach [4]. Copper - **Core View**: Oscillation in the short - term, long - term bullish [1]. - **Main Logic**: The impact of US copper import tariffs is diminishing. In the short - term, inventory increases may lead to price corrections, but the decline is limited. In the long - term, the global copper mine shortage persists [1][5][6]. - **Price Range**: Shanghai copper [77800, 79800], London copper [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: After price corrections, consider long - positions on dips [6]. Zinc - **Core View**: Under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, zinc concentrate processing fees are recovering, and factors such as overseas steel anti - dumping and Trump's tariff uncertainties affect demand. In the long - term, supply increases while demand weakens [1][7][8]. - **Price Range**: Shanghai zinc [21800, 22400], London zinc [2680, 2780] dollars/ton [8]. - **Strategy**: Seize opportunities to short on rallies [8]. Aluminum - **Core View**: Rebound under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the market is entering the off - season with inventory accumulation [1][9][10]. - **Price Range**: [20100 - 20800] [1]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - positions on rebounds, paying attention to inventory changes [10]. Nickel - **Core View**: Under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weakening, downstream stainless steel production cuts lead to inventory reduction, but there is still pressure in the off - season, and pure nickel inventory is accumulating again [1][11]. - **Price Range**: [118000 - 122000] [1]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - positions on rebounds, paying attention to stainless steel production cuts [11]. Lead - **Core View**: Rebound under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: Supply increases after smelter maintenance, and downstream consumption is insufficient, leading to inventory accumulation [1]. - **Price Range**: [16800 - 17300] [1]. Tin - **Core View**: Rebound under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: Myanmar's tin ore supply has not recovered, and consumption has entered the off - season with inventory accumulation [1]. - **Price Range**: [260000 - 269000] [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Core View**: Rebound under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: Cost support exists, but fundamental improvement is lacking, and high inventory restricts upward movement [1]. - **Price Range**: [8240 - 8550] [1]. Polysilicon - **Core View**: High - level oscillation [1]. - **Main Logic**: Policy expectations and positive price feedback in the industrial chain support the price, but high prices and margin increases lead to high volatility [1]. - **Price Range**: [40000 - 42500] [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and inventory is at a record high. Although downstream demand shows some growth, it is hard to verify its strength [1][12]. - **Price Range**: [63800 - 64500] [1][13]. - **Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation, pay attention to the 65,000 resistance [13].

锌周报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 锌价走势反复 关注海外结构变化 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价先抑后仰。宏观面看，国内外分化，特 朗普向多国发出关税信函，同时称对铜加征 50%的关税， 关税施压抑制市场风险偏好，但相较 4 月对等关税时的影 响明显减弱。美联储利率会议纪要显示降息分歧较大，维 持谨慎态度官员居多。国内通胀边际好转但维持低位，市 场期待 7 月重要会议，股市偏好提振商品。基本面看， Kipushi 锌矿生产稳定，全年产量指引不变，下半年原料 延续趋松态势。炼厂原料库存重塑后生产有保障，且三大 新增项目陆续释放增量，供应维持高增速。需求端看，前 期大雨影响解除，镀锌企业开工小幅回升；部分因设备检 修的企业复产，压铸锌合金企业开工环比小增；企业检修， 氧化锌企业开工率微降，终端消费多疲软，初端企业开工 仍有边际转弱预期，同时锌价反弹抑制下游采买，现货升 水持续回落且库存加速累增，基本面偏弱。近期 LME 结构 走强，LME0-3 现货由前期贴水转向升水结构，增加市场 挤仓担忧，情绪层面提振内外锌价走势。但 LME 仓单集中 度可控，且当前注销仓单占比处于正常区间，挤仓风险较 低但仍需关注后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy markets, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also presents forecasts for crop production and market trends based on various data sources such as USDA, SPPOMA, and NOPA [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight prices and price changes of various commodities are presented, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and their related products. Currency exchange rates and their fluctuations are also provided [1]. - For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 09 was 4175.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.68% and an overnight increase of 1% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and changes for imported soybeans are also included [2]. - For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China was 8850, with a basis of 150 and a basis change of - 30 compared to the previous day [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather and Crop Conditions - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from July 16 - 20 shows that rainfall in major soybean - producing states is higher than normal, and central temperatures are lower. The Midwest has suitable conditions for most crops, but some areas like northern Illinois and Indiana need rainfall [3][5]. 3.3.2 Crop Production and Export Forecasts - USDA predicts that the global palm oil production in 2025/26 will be 8073.6 million tons, with unchanged exports from Indonesia and Malaysia compared to last month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 35.28% from July 1 - 10, 2025 [6]. - USDA also provides forecasts for US and global soybean production, ending stocks, and exports in different crop years. For example, the 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks are expected to be 3.1 billion bushels [8]. 3.3.3 Market News - Malaysian palm oil exports may increase this month due to buyers' rush to ship before the US tariff policy takes effect on August 1. CFTC position reports show changes in long and short positions for various agricultural products [7]. - USDA reports private exporters' sales of 21.99 million tons of soybeans to Mexico for 2025/2026 delivery. The US biofuel manufacturers' demand for soybean oil is expected to reach a record - high of 15.5 billion pounds in 2025/26, leading to a significant drop in exports [10]. - NOPA monthly report forecasts suggest a decline in soybean crushing in June 2025 compared to May but an increase compared to June 2024. Brazilian soybean planting area and production are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season [11]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - The US Treasury's monthly budget report shows a significant increase in tariff revenue in June. Trump announced 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico, Brazil, and the EU starting from August 1. The IEA adjusted its forecasts for global oil supply and demand, and Russia plans to compensate for over - production in August - September [17]. - The EU Commission President extended the suspension of counter - measures against US tariffs until early August [18]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On July 11, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downward (yuan appreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 507 million yuan on that day and a net withdrawal of 22.65 billion yuan for the week [20]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On July 11, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 26.685 billion yuan, with 3.417 billion yuan flowing into commodity futures (including 373 million yuan into agricultural product futures, 680 million yuan into chemical futures, 361 million yuan into black - series futures, and 2.004 billion yuan into metal futures) and 23.267 billion yuan into stock index futures [24]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term cautious, medium - term positive [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term and medium - term positive [3] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Copper**: Short - term range 77600 - 79100, medium - term range 60000 - 90000 [5] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term range 8300 - 8500, medium - term low - level operation in range 7500 - 8800 [8] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term and medium - term positive [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term range 6.30 - 6.50 million, medium - term price decline with range 5.6 - 6.8 million [14] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas tariff uncertainty has a reduced marginal impact; policy promotes long - term capital entry; market risk appetite is rising, but short - term profit - taking pressure should be noted [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bank - to - bank liquidity is slightly tightened, and there are rumors in the market. The domestic fundamentals are weak, strengthening the policy easing expectation [4] - **Copper**: US tariff hikes, supply increase, demand - side cost pressure, and inventory changes may affect price trends [5][7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand decline, high inventory, but polysilicon price increase boosts it [8][9] - **Polysilicon**: Supply decline, demand increase, high inventory, and "capacity reduction" expectation drive price increase [11][13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot price increase benefits futures, but high supply and inventory levels are negative factors [14] 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Reference Strategy**: IM2507 trading positions take profit, and allocation positions move to IM2509 [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas tariff uncertainty is reduced; policy promotes long - term capital entry; market risk appetite rises with 596 billion yuan net buying in 3 weeks and 9% financing ratio [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [4] - **Core Logic**: Bank - to - bank liquidity tightens slightly, rumors in the market, and weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy easing expectation [4] Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper** - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading approach [5] - **Core Logic**: US tariff hikes, Codelco's 9% production increase, demand - side cost pressure, and inventory changes [5][7] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [8] - **Core Logic**: 27.67% supply decline, 33.11% demand decline, high inventory, and polysilicon price increase [8][9] - **Polysilicon** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [10] - **Core Logic**: 33.11% supply decline, 19.06% demand increase, high inventory, and "capacity reduction" expectation [11][13] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [14] - **Core Logic**: Spot price increase, 35% supply increase, and high inventory levels [14]

宏观周报 特朗普再掀关税攻势，A 股指数创年内新高 核心观点 ⚫ 海外方面， 7月关税豁免日到期后，特朗普对多国大幅升 级关税，宣布自8月1日起对包括日本、韩国、马来西亚、 南非、老挝、缅甸在内的多国商品征收25%至40%不等的 关税；对巴西商品征收50%；对加拿大商品税率上调至 35%；对欧盟及墨西哥统一征收30%。此外，对铜进口征 收50%，对进口药品征收200%关税（2027年起执行），并 提议对等关税基准从10%上调至15–20%。整体关税策略 呈现"密集部署+延迟生效"模式，意在强化谈判筹码与 产业回流预期，目前已引发多国反制酝酿。关税扰动整体 有限，降息预期升温与风险偏好抬升主导市场，美股续创 高位，美元指数震荡回升，黄金小幅走强。本周关注美国 6月CPI及零售数据。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 2025 年 7 月 14 日 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 ...

事实上，在今年5月的财报说明会上，日产新任CEO伊万·埃斯皮诺萨曾被问及通过生产本田车型来活用美 国工厂的问题，他当时表示："正在探讨在美国市场开展合作的可能性。"《日刊汽车新闻》指出，若合作达 成，预计将为两家公司带来一定益处，处于经营重组中的日产需要提高工厂的开工率，而本田也能完善自身的 车型产品线。目前，本田在北美销售皮卡Ridgeline，如果能获得日产的代工，本田有望满足当地更广泛的需 求。 值得一提的是，此前在2024年12月下旬，日产与本田宣布签署谅解备忘录，启动经营合并谈判。不过，谈 判最终于今年2月破裂，但双方仍表示将继续在电动汽车等领域保持合作。尤其是在美国加征进口汽车关税的背 景下，日本车企需要努力增加在美国本土的产量，以尽量减少关税带来的影响。 近日，NHK、《日本经济新闻》、路透社等多家外媒报道称，日产与本田已开启谈判，探讨在美国利 用日产工厂的剩余产能为本田代工生产皮卡的可能性。 对此，日产发表声明称，公司正继续与本田合作，但没有其他进一步的消息，也不会对猜测发表评论。本 田方面则没有立即置评。 或联手应对关税 据知情人士透露，日产与本田正在探讨，利用日产在美产能利用率较低的工厂为 ...