Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil market is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of both supply and demand weakening. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will hardly have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - Regarding urea, the domestic urea supply - demand situation is acceptable, with support at the lower price level, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected to be easier to rise than fall in the second half of the year. A long - position mindset should be maintained for the medium - term, and long positions should be gradually established in batches. For the short - term, a neutral mindset is recommended, with short - term operations and quick in - and - out trading. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [10] - In the PVC market, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is still inventory reduction and weakening. The market is currently rebounding driven by the rebound of the black building materials sector, but will still be under pressure due to the weak fundamental expectations [12] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN is expected to recover [14] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain volatile. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there are no new capacity commissioning plans in July [17] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July. However, the LL - PP spread has formed a bottom and is expected to gradually widen in the second half of the year [18] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [20][21] - For PTA, in July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight inventory reduction, and the processing fee has support. The demand side is slightly under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22] - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamental situation is weak, but it may be stronger in the short - term due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting on rallies [23] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI's main crude oil futures closed down $0.18, a 0.27% decline, at $67; Brent's main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.49% decline, at $68.51; INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.80 yuan, a 0.55% decline, at 503.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.21 million barrels to 9.15 million barrels, a 2.23% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.55 million barrels to 14.35 million barrels, a 4.00% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.57 million barrels to 6.10 million barrels, an 8.48% decrease; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.39 million barrels to 5.23 million barrels, a 6.89% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.76 million barrels to 6.10 million barrels, an 11.03% decrease; the total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.37 million barrels to 40.93 million barrels, a 3.23% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes on July 4**: The 09 contract fell 15 yuan/ton to 2399 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of +46 [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level. Overseas plant operating rates have returned to medium - high levels. The market has gradually priced in the overseas supply disruptions, and market fluctuations have narrowed. On the demand side, the olefin plants at ports have reduced their loads, and it is the off - season for traditional demand, with the operating rate declining. After the recent decline in methanol prices, the downstream profit has improved, but the overall level is still low, and the methanol spot valuation is still high. It is expected that the upside space is limited in the off - season [4] Urea - **Market Quotes on July 4**: The 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1735 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +55 [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The short - term domestic operating rate has declined, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, and cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. On the demand side, the compound fertilizer operating rate has continued to decline, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound with the start of autumn fertilizer pre - sales. Export container shipping is still ongoing, and port inventories have increased significantly. The subsequent demand is concentrated on compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers and exports [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have adjusted downward in a volatile manner [8] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest conditions, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, it is the seasonal off - season for demand, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: As of July 3, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.73%, 1.89 percentage points lower than the previous week and 1.55 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 70.04%, 7.64 percentage points lower than the previous week and 9.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipping rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 million tons, a 0.7 - million - ton increase, or a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 million tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 million tons, a 0.3% decrease. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.66 (+1.19) million tons [9][10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 8 yuan to 4906 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 106 (+28) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 97 (+13) yuan/ton [12] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The overall operating rate of PVC this week was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase. Factory inventories were 38.6 million tons (-0.9), and social inventories were 59.2 million tons (+1.7). The corporate profit pressure has further increased, and there are many maintenance plans recently, but the production volume remains high, and there are expectations of multiple plant commissionings in the short - term. The domestic operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is gradually entering the off - season. In July, India's anti - dumping measures are expected to be implemented, and exports are expected to weaken. The cost support is expected to weaken as the calcium carbide production restriction eases [12] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices have fallen, while futures prices have risen, and the basis has weakened [14] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase over the weekend. The cost of pure benzene has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased. It is the seasonal off - season, and the overall operating rate of the three S products on the demand side has decreased. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN is expected to recover. It is expected that the styrene price will fluctuate with a downward bias [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have fallen. The主力 contract closed at 7282 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan decrease [17] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase. The spot price of polyethylene has fallen, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Traders' inventories at a high level have started to decline marginally, which provides some support for prices. It is the seasonal off - season, and the order volume of agricultural films on the demand side has decreased marginally, with the overall operating rate fluctuating downward. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there are no new capacity commissioning plans in July. The polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile [17] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have risen. The主力 contract closed at 7078 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase [18] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. It is expected that the polypropylene price will be bearish in July. The LL - PP spread has formed a bottom and is expected to gradually widen in the second half of the year [18] PX & PTA & MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 68 yuan to 6672 yuan, and PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 840 dollars. The basis was 254 yuan (-5), and the 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan (-40) [20] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The Chinese PX operating rate was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants have reduced their loads or undergone maintenance, while some overseas plants have restarted or increased their loads. In June, South Korea's PX exports to China were 34 million tons, a 3.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of May was 434.6 million tons, a 16.5 - million - ton decrease month - on - month. The PXN was 271 dollars (-11), and the naphtha crack spread was 73 dollars (+8). After the end of the maintenance season, the PX load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. The current valuation is at a neutral level [20][21] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan/ton to 4710 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 55 yuan to 4835 yuan. The basis was 97 yuan (-30), and the 9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan (-24) [22] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.5% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.6%, a 0.8% decrease. Some downstream plants have undergone maintenance or reduced their loads. On June 27, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.7 million tons, a 0.3 - million - ton decrease. The spot processing fee of PTA fell 7 yuan to 292 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 9 yuan to 333 yuan. In July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight inventory reduction, and the processing fee has support. The polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and it is not expected to significantly reduce production, but the bottle - chip plants have plans to reduce production. The demand side is slightly under pressure [22] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 4277 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4365 yuan. The basis was 76 (0), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 36 yuan (0) [23] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The ethylene glycol operating rate was 66.5%, a 0.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants have undergone maintenance or restarted. The downstream operating rate was 90.6%, a 0.8% decrease. Some downstream plants have undergone maintenance. The import arrival forecast was 15 million tons, and the East China departure volume on July 3 was 1 million tons. Port inventories were 54.5 million tons, a 7.7 - million - ton decrease. The naphtha - based production profit was - 483 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 828 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1028 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 850 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 490 yuan. It is expected that the port inventory reduction will gradually slow down, and the fundamental situation is weak, but it may be stronger in the short - term due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants [23]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年7月7日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 6、预期：上周PTA装置检修重启并行，当前市场供需矛盾并不突出，且社会库存处于偏低水平，预计短期内PTA现货价格仍跟随 成本端震荡调整，现货基差快速下行后托底效应或将显现。关注OPEC+会议结果及聚酯负荷波动。 1、基本面：周五，贸易商商谈为主。下周货在09+90~105有成交，价格商谈区间在4800~4870附近。7月中在09+95~100有成交。 今日主流现货基差在09+97。中性 2、基差：现货4872，09合约基差125，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.95天，环比减少0.14天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in trade tariffs set by the U.S. government, the implications for various industries, and the current state of key commodities such as oil, steel, and shipping rates. Group 1: Trade Tariffs and Economic Policies - The U.S. government, under President Trump, is set to implement new unilateral tariff rates, which may range from 10% to 70%, effective from August 1 [1] - The Chinese government emphasizes the need for technological innovation in agriculture and healthcare to enhance economic quality and competitiveness [1] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day, exceeding market expectations [3] - U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 68,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 1.92 million barrels, indicating a mixed supply situation [3] Group 3: Steel Market Dynamics - Steel mills are experiencing stable profit margins, but supply pressures are beginning to manifest as inventory levels decrease [3][22] - The steel market faces a dual weakness in supply and demand, with seasonal demand expected to decline due to the rainy season in southern China [22] Group 4: Shipping Industry Trends - The European shipping index (SCFI) rose by $71 per TEU to $2,101, indicating a recovery in shipping rates after previous declines [2][27] - The market anticipates a stable shipping rate environment in the latter half of July, with a focus on upcoming tariff announcements that may influence market sentiment [2][27] Group 5: Agricultural Sector Developments - The U.S. soybean crop's good rating stands at 66%, slightly below market expectations, which may impact future pricing and supply dynamics [25] - The domestic supply of soybeans remains ample, which could limit upward price movements despite positive signals from U.S.-China trade relations [25]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 日期： 2025年07月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 上游 1、石脑油,乙烯 2、低硫燃料油,燃料油 3、LPG 聚酯芳烃 02 1、PTA,MEG,短纤 2、瓶片,短纤 3、苯乙烯 煤化工及烯烃 1、LLDPE,PP 2、甲醇 3、尿素 04 氯碱 1、玻璃,纯碱 2、烧碱,PVC 氯碱及轻工 1、橡胶 2、合成橡胶 3、纸浆 4、胶版印刷纸 2 CONTENTS 01 03 05 石脑油产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 日期：2025年7月5日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3 CONTENTS 总结 01 石脑油部分 02 乙烯部分 03 烯烃-芳烃影响 04 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is shifting its focus from supporting high oil prices to defending market share, with discussions on increasing production amid global economic uncertainties and inventory pressures [2][3]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ is planning a new round of production increases, with eight major member countries agreeing to release 411,000 barrels per day in May, June, and July, achieving 62% of their target to increase production by 2.2 million barrels [2]. - There are discussions about a larger scale of capacity release, indicating a strategic shift towards prioritizing market share over price support [2]. - The expectation is that this additional capacity could be fully released by September or October, potentially offsetting global oil consumption growth forecasts [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Market Dynamics - Global crude oil inventories have increased by approximately 170 million barrels in less than four months, indicating rising supply pressures [3]. - Market analysts predict that the Brent futures market structure is signaling an anticipated increase in inventories, suggesting a well-supplied market in 2026 [4]. - OPEC+ is also working on a mechanism to assess production capacities, as internal disputes over quotas have been a recurring issue among member countries [4]. Group 3: Demand Outlook and Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical factors, including U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and trade agreements, are expected to continue influencing market volatility [6]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing economic challenges and the rise of clean energy technologies [7]. - There is a divergence in market outlook among financial institutions, with some predicting oil prices around $60 by year-end, while others, like Barclays, have raised their price forecasts due to improved demand outlooks [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In June, tin prices fluctuated at high levels. The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and transportation disruptions of tin mines in southern Myanmar via Thailand are expected to reduce China's tin ore imports by 500 - 1000 tons in June, intensifying the short - term supply shortage. In the smelting sector, raw material inventories in major production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi are generally less than 30 days, and some smelting enterprises have started maintenance or gradient production cuts, further tightening refined tin supply. [11][12] - After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China declined, and the operating rates of some producers decreased. Orders in the consumer electronics and automotive electronics sectors grew weakly, and market sentiment was wait - and - see. Demand for tin in areas such as tinplate and chemicals was stable. As of June 27, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from the previous week. [11][12] - Overall, the short - term supply shortage of tin ore is obvious, and upstream enterprises have a strong sentiment of holding back sales. However, terminal demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. The upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a stalemate. It is expected that domestic tin prices will fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and LME tin prices will fluctuate in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton. [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and transportation disruptions via Thailand are expected to reduce June tin ore imports by 500 - 1000 tons. Raw material inventories in major smelting areas are low, and some enterprises have cut production. The combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi is only 46.84%. [11] - **Imports and Exports**: In May, tin ore and concentrate imports were 13,448.797 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, cumulative imports were 50,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. Unwrought non - alloy tin exports were 1770 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, cumulative exports were 9584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. Unwrought non - alloy tin imports were 2076 tons, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, cumulative imports were 9508 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91%. [11] - **Demand Side**: After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China declined. Orders in consumer electronics and automotive electronics grew weakly, while demand in tinplate and chemicals was stable. In June, the production schedule for household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, an 11.5% increase from the previous year; the refrigerator production schedule was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; and the washing machine production schedule was 6.75 million units, the same as the previous year. [11] - **Conclusion**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton domestically and 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton on the LME in the short term. [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Relevant figures such as the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented, but no specific text analysis of the market situation is provided. [19][20] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Figures for tin export and import profits are shown, but no specific analysis of profit trends is provided. [25][26] - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from the previous week. LME inventory remained at a low level. [11][28] 4. Cost Side - Tin ore supply is generally tight, and processing fees remain at a low level. [34] 5. Supply Side - **Production**: Affected by raw material shortages and low processing fees, the refined tin output in May was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%. [39] - **Imports and Exports**: In May, tin ore and concentrate imports were 13,448.797 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, cumulative imports were 50,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. Unwrought non - alloy tin exports were 1770 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, cumulative exports were 9584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. Unwrought non - alloy tin imports were 2076 tons, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, cumulative imports were 9508 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91%. [42] 6. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: In 2024, consumption showed a steady growth trend, with the increase mainly coming from the recovery of semiconductor consumption and the rise in photovoltaic module production. In China, solder consumption dominated, and the increase was mainly from photovoltaic module production and semiconductor consumption recovery. Overseas, semiconductor consumption recovery also drove tin consumption growth, but overall growth was slower than in China, showing an internal - strong - external - weak trend. [50] - **Semiconductor**: China's semiconductor sales year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. [55] - **Photovoltaic**: In the first four months of 2025, there was a phased rush to install photovoltaic in China, with obvious production growth. In June, the component production schedule decreased significantly month - on - month. [61] - **White Goods**: According to the latest production schedule report of three major white goods, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in July 2025 was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease from the previous year. Specifically, the air conditioner production schedule was 15.8 million units, a 1.9% decrease; the refrigerator production schedule was 7.35 million units, a 2.4% decrease; and the washing machine production schedule was 6.445 million units, a 4.2% decrease. [70]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From a medium to long - term perspective, it's hard to say that the downward cycle of the coking coal industry has easily reached the bottom. The long - term high accounts receivable in the coal mining and washing industry means the "de - leveraging" game in the industry isn't over, and price risks may turn into credit risks. There's still a gap compared to the industry's overall asset - liability performance in the 2012 - 2015 cycle. Although the scale of capacity reduction this time may be less than that in the previous cycle, industry meetings after the "anti - involution" signal may affect market expectations [1][18]. - Statically, the cost support at the bottom of coking coal in the two cycles is different. Due to the increasing scarcity of domestic primary coking coal resources, the deepening of coal seam mining and the increase in fixed costs have led to a structural upward trend in the full cost per ton of coal. The full cost per ton of clean coal in representative mines in major production areas has reached 800 - 1000 yuan/ton (raw coal cost is lower). Different from the overall over - supply in the previous cycle, the current situation shows more of a structural over - supply, which may lengthen the price bottom - seeking oscillation timeline [1][20]. - Dynamically, the domestic supply pressure is gradually being released, and subsequent variables mainly depend on the import scale. The previous over - capacity problem in the domestic supply has been alleviated under macro - control, and safety supervision will further restrict coal mine over - production. However, the import level is highly uncertain. High inventory at Mongolian coal ports, insufficient import drive for Australian coal due to inverted price differences, and shipping difficulties for Russian coal due to intensified sanctions all show different degrees of differentiation. Therefore, considering cost and supply - demand, this downward cycle may show a dynamic bottom - seeking trend, and policy measures will intensify the game between reality and expectations [2][20] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 2012 - 2015 Cycle Background Introduction - From 2012 to 2015, the domestic coal industry was in an over - capacity cycle after capacity expansion. After the pulse - like rise due to the four - trillion - yuan policy, the fixed - asset investment growth rate in coal mining and washing reached its peak in 2012, with coal production capacity reaching about 40 billion tons and the under - construction scale being 11 billion tons. Meanwhile, the domestic economic growth rate declined, making the over - capacity problem more prominent, with high inventory, falling prices, and declining industry efficiency. In 2015, the loss - making proportion exceeded 90%, and coal mine enterprises faced passive clearance. The end of the previous cycle was signaled by administrative production - cut policies rather than industry self - disciplined production cuts [5] Comparison with the Current Cycle Cost End - In the two historical downward cycles, the bottom of coal prices is significantly different. The increase in cost has led to an adjustment in the overall price valuation. Wages and employee benefits account for the highest proportion (about 25%) of all cost items, followed by material and depreciation costs (around 12 - 13%). Due to the increasing scarcity of domestic primary coking coal resources, the deepening of coal seam mining and the increase in fixed costs have led to a structural upward trend in the full cost per ton of coal. The historical cost has increased by 100 - 300 yuan/ton in the past few years, so the bottom of this price downward cycle is different from the historical cycle [7] Supply - Demand End - **Domestic Production and Inventory**: Under macro - control, the previous over - capacity pressure has been alleviated. The domestic coal industry has gone through three stages: passive clearance of backward capacity from 2012 - 2015, supply - side reform from 2016 - 2020, and stable operation with environmental protection and safety supervision from 2021 to the present. From 2012 to 2023, the compound annual growth rates of raw coal and coking coal were 1.62% and - 0.88% respectively. Due to the drag of the real estate sector, the downstream maintains a low - inventory, on - demand procurement strategy, and the inventory structure shows differentiation [12] - **Import Situation**: After 2020, Australian coal imports decreased sharply, while Mongolian and Russian coal imports increased significantly. For Russian coal, in April 2025, the seaborne export volume was 13.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%; from January to April, the cumulative volume was 49.06 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The decline is due to limited railway capacity and intensified US sanctions. For Mongolian coal, although infrastructure construction is conducive to trade, high inventory at ports and weak domestic demand have restricted import growth. Overall, internal and external factors may suppress subsequent coking coal imports [14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PTA: After the sharp decline in oil prices, it returned to a volatile state. The PTA futures market fluctuated following the cost side. Although the fundamentals of PTA itself weakened month - on - month, there was no inventory accumulation. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will continue to fluctuate weakly following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of polyester load [6]. - MEG: At the beginning of July, the arrival of foreign ships was concentrated, and the subsequent visible inventory will gradually increase. Supply at home and abroad is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation in the third quarter, with an overall increase of about 200,000 tons. The spot liquidity in the market will continue to be released. Recently, the sales of polyester products have been weak, and the inventory pressure of polyester products has continued to increase. Bottle chip factories will gradually implement maintenance, and the polyester load will decrease. In the short term, the market sentiment will be boosted by the short - term shutdown of Saudi Arabian plants, and ethylene glycol may show a small - scale rebound, but the overall sustainability is not strong, and the fundamentals cannot form effective support [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - PTA: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated and closed down. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market declined compared with the previous day. The negotiation was mainly among traders, with sporadic inquiries from polyester factories. The decline of the spot basis widened. The inventory of PTA factories was 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, but the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position increased [6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely. The buying sentiment in the market was good. The price of ethylene glycol was mainly adjusted within a certain range during the day, and the buying sentiment improved significantly in the afternoon. Some contract merchants actively replenished their stocks, and the spot basis strengthened to a premium of about 80 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The trading in the market was active. The inventory in East China was 504,700 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The main contract was net short, and the short position decreased [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory changes [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory changes [12]. 5. Price - It includes multiple price - related charts such as bottle chip spot price, bottle chip production profit, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, and spot spread, which reflect the price trends of different products over the years [14][27][30]. 6. Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of various products such as PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory, which reflect the inventory trends of different products over the years [40]. 7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工 - It includes the opening rate data of polyester upstream products (such as PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol) and downstream products (such as polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms), which reflect the production activity trends of different products over the years [51][55]. 8. Profit - It includes the profit data of various products such as PTA processing fee, MEG production profit (from different production methods), polyester fiber short - fiber production profit, and polyester fiber long - filament production profit, which reflect the profit trends of different products over the years [59][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks have reignited, and oil prices have restarted their upward trend. The current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance, and it is not advisable to short - sell oil prices rashly even with the OPEC meeting approaching. Investors are advised to control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, it has returned to its own fundamentals with low inventory and strong spot performance. However, the high valuation of methanol spot has compressed downstream profits. It is expected that imports in August will be limited, and it is difficult for ports to accumulate large - scale inventories before the 09 contract. The overall short - term contradiction is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [4]. - For urea, with more maintenance devices and falling domestic demand, it has entered a range - bound operation. Although exports are ongoing and port inventories are rising, domestic demand is entering the off - season. In the future, supply will decline, and demand and exports are expected to improve slightly. It is advisable to consider short - term long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have shifted from a stagnant - rise to a decline. Bulls focus on potential production cuts, while bears are concerned about weak demand. Short - term trading should adopt a neutral approach, and a long - term bullish view can be maintained for the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10][12]. - For PVC, the cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and both supply and demand are weak. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Although it has rebounded recently, it will still face pressure in the future [14]. - For styrene, the cost of pure benzene has increased, supply has risen, and demand is in the off - season. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [17]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to inventory reduction driven by high - maintenance. With no new production capacity planned in July, the price is expected to remain volatile [19]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be bearish in June [20]. - For PX, the maintenance season has ended, and the load remains high. In the third quarter, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories due to new PTA device production. After the geopolitical situation eases, it is advisable to consider long - position opportunities on dips following the trend of crude oil [22][23]. - For PTA, the load remains stable, and downstream load has decreased. In the future, supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is under slight pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, it is advisable to consider long - position opportunities on dips following the trend of PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load has decreased, and the downstream load is expected to decline from its high level. The inventory reduction at ports is expected to slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities in the future [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: WTI主力原油期货收跌0.35美元，跌幅0.52%，报67.18美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.30美元，跌幅0.43%，报68.85美元；INE主力原油期货收涨8.10元，涨幅1.63%，报506.3元[1]. - **Singapore ESG Oil Product Data**: Gasoline inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 12.37 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 7.18%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.47 million barrels to 9.89 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 4.54%; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.88 million barrels to 23.38 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.91%; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.55 million barrels to 45.65 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18% [1]. Methanol - On July 3, the 09 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 2414 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 5 yuan/ton, and the basis was + 46. It has low inventory and strong spot performance, but high spot valuation has compressed downstream profits. Imports in August are expected to be limited, and it is difficult for ports to accumulate large - scale inventories before the 09 contract. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [4]. Urea - On July 3, the 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was + 23. More maintenance devices have led to a decline in production, and domestic demand is weakening. Exports are ongoing, but domestic demand is entering the off - season. In the future, supply will decline, and demand and exports are expected to improve slightly. It is advisable to consider short - term long - position opportunities on dips [6]. Rubber - NR and RU have shifted from a stagnant - rise to a decline. Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, while bears are concerned about weak demand due to a poor macro - outlook and the off - season. As of July 3, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.73%, down 1.89 percentage points from last week; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.04%, down 7.64 percentage points from last week. Short - term trading should adopt a neutral approach, and a long - term bullish view can be maintained for the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10][11][12]. PVC - The PVC09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4914 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 134 (+36) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 110 (-11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate has decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Although it has rebounded recently, it will still face pressure in the future [14]. Styrene - Spot prices have fallen, and futures prices have risen, with a weakening basis. The cost of pure benzene has increased, supply has risen, and demand is in the off - season. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - Futures prices have risen. After the end of the Iran - Israel conflict, crude oil prices have stabilized. Spot prices have fallen, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories have started to decline marginally, providing some support to prices. Demand is in the off - season, and the operating rate is declining. With no new production capacity planned in July, the price is expected to remain volatile [19]. Polypropylene - Futures prices have risen. The profit of Shandong refineries has rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be bearish in June [20]. Polyester PX - The PX09 contract fell 50 yuan to 6740 yuan, the PX CFR fell 5 dollars to 849 dollars, and the basis was 259 (+7) yuan. The load in China and Asia has decreased. The maintenance season has ended, and the load remains high. In the third quarter, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories due to new PTA device production. After the geopolitical situation eases, it is advisable to consider long - position opportunities on dips following the trend of crude oil [22][23]. PTA - The PTA09 contract fell 48 yuan/ton to 4746 yuan, the spot price in East China fell 35 yuan to 4890 yuan, and the basis was 127 (-20) yuan. The load remains stable, and downstream load has decreased. In the future, supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is under slight pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, it is advisable to consider long - position opportunities on dips following the trend of PX [24]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 4288 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 8 yuan to 4370 yuan, and the basis was 76 (+2) yuan. The supply load has decreased, and the downstream load is expected to decline from its high level. The inventory reduction at ports is expected to slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities in the future [25].

俄罗斯诺里尔斯克镍公司（Nornickel）：预计2026年全球钯金将实现供需平衡。 ...