Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation judgment is optimistically cautious, with the macro - policy emphasizing continuity and stability, and leaving room for policy adjustment. The "15th Five - Year Plan" is set to play a crucial role in China's modernization process [7]. - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Structural tools are emphasized for targeted support [8]. - Fiscal policy is more proactive, with accelerated implementation of existing policies and potential new policies in consumption, technology, and foreign trade [14]. - The mid - term bond market yield is expected to continue its downward trend despite recent upward fluctuations [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation and "15th Five - Year Plan" - The current macro - economy is stable with progress but still faces challenges. Macro - policies aim to maintain the upward trend, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [7]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a key stage for China's modernization, with a dual mission of connecting the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the 2035 vision [7]. 3.2 Monetary Policy - The moderate - loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged. The focus shifts to the priority of structural tools over aggregate ones, with an emphasis on guiding funds to the real economy [8]. - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to factors such as the differentiated structural economic recovery, expected Fed rate cuts, and historical rate - cut rhythms [10][12]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the bottom - line of "Three Guarantees" at the grassroots level [14]. - In the second half of the year, the implementation of existing fiscal policies will accelerate, and new policies may be introduced to support consumption, technology, and foreign trade [17]. 3.4 Bond Market - The recent rise in bond yields is due to the resonance of economic fundamentals, policy, and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose from about 1.65% to 1.75% in mid - to late July [18]. - Considering the policy's emphasis on continuity and stability and the economic weak - recovery reality, the mid - term bond yield is expected to continue its downward trend [18][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply recovery and the increase in Mongolian coal imports still need time to materialize, and the de - stocking cycle of upstream coal mines continues. After the market sentiment fades, the futures price returns to a reasonable range. In the short term, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal in the domestic market continued its volatile and upward trend this week, but the increase narrowed, mostly in the range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The price of coke increased continuously, with the fourth price increase implemented on the 28th, and the cumulative increase reached 200 - 220 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The central government emphasizes continued and timely efforts in macro - policies in the second half of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and promoting economic circulation. The decision to hold the 20th Fourth Plenary Session in October to study the 15th Five - Year Plan is made. A new round of China - US economic and trade talks was held, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days [6]. - From January to June 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 343.65 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year. In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [6][7]. - In June 2025, China's steel exports were 9.678 million tons, a decrease of 8.5% from the previous month, and the export price decreased by 1.6%. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the export price decreased by 10.2%. In June, steel imports were 470,000 tons, a decrease of 2.4% from the previous month, and the import price decreased by 2.1%. From January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%, and the import price increased by 2.2% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Affected by factors such as over - production inspections, completion of monthly production tasks, and underground conditions in some areas this week, the daily output of raw coal decreased slightly. However, the overall demand for coking coal was relatively strong, and coal mines significantly reduced their inventories [2]. - Demand side: The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The fourth price increase of coke was implemented, and mainstream coking enterprises proposed a fifth price increase, but mainstream steel mills have not responded yet. Coking and steel enterprises maintained a rigid demand for raw coal procurement under high production loads and stable inventory consumption. Future changes in the operation of coal mines, coking, and steel enterprises need to be monitored [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Market outlook: The futures market is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. - Investment strategies: For single - sided trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profit trading, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [32].

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel Futures Weekly Report (August 04, 2025) [1] - Report Author: Cong Yanfei [2] - Report Publisher: Ningzheng Futures Investment Consulting Center [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel prices fluctuated and declined, with the average national rebar price dropping by 75 yuan/ton week-on-week. The macro positive expectations faded, and demand continued to decline seasonally. The market sentiment shifted from strong expectations to weak reality. However, raw materials still provided some bottom support, and the market sentiment was lukewarm. [2][4] - Next week, high temperatures, heavy rainfall, and typhoon weather will continue to suppress construction progress, and the actual terminal demand is expected to weaken further. However, the special bonds in July did not meet the plan, and infrastructure investment may have some support in August. [2][4] - The steel market fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is currently the off - season for consumption, inventory is starting to accumulate, and market sales pressure has increased. [9] - In the short term, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The steel fundamentals show some contradictions but still have cost support. [26] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated and declined this week, with the average national rebar price dropping by 75 yuan/ton week - on - week. The macro positive expectations faded, and demand continued to decline seasonally. The market sentiment shifted from strong expectations to weak reality. Raw materials provided some bottom support, and the market sentiment was lukewarm. [2][4] - Next week, adverse weather will suppress construction progress, and terminal demand is expected to weaken further. However, infrastructure investment may have some support in August due to the unfulfilled special bond plan in July. [2][4] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The central government emphasizes continuous and timely efforts in macro - policies in the second half of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and promoting economic circulation. [6] - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session will be held in October to study the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. [6] - China and the US held a new round of economic and trade talks, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of some reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. [6] - From January to June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale was 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year. [6] - In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing and composite PMI output indices were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. [7] - In June 2025, China's steel exports were 967800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%, the first month - on - month decline since March. The export average price was 687.1 US dollars/ton, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the export average price was 699.3 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. In June, China's steel imports were 47000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%, and the import average price was 1712.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. From January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%, and the import average price was 1686.4 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. [7] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 94100 tons, lower than last week's 114700 tons. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is currently the consumption off - season, inventory is starting to accumulate, and market sales pressure has increased. [9] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Steel mills' overall profits are acceptable, and their production willingness has not significantly decreased. It is expected that production will continue to increase. [26] - Demand: The demand contradiction in the off - season is gradually emerging, consumption has declined month - on - month, and consumption sustainability is weak. [26] - Cost: The fourth round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the fifth round has started. The game between coke and steel mills has intensified, and cost support still exists. [26] - Overall: The steel fundamentals show some contradictions but still have cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. [26] - Investment Strategies: For single - sided trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the coil - rebar spread, wait and see; for steel profits, wait and see; for options, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy. [2][26][27]

Market Overview - The market indices mostly declined, with the CSI 100 experiencing a significant drop of -2.15%[28] - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All A index decreased to 18,096.34 billion CNY, down from 18,486.97 billion CNY, indicating a historical high position at the 93.40% percentile over the past three years[43][46] Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 conveyed a more optimistic economic outlook, emphasizing "steady progress" and the need for proactive fiscal policies[11] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, focusing on long-term competitiveness rather than short-term stability[11] Sector Performance - The healthcare index and information technology index showed relative strength, with weekly gains of 2.65% and 0.71%, respectively[31] - The real estate index and energy index underperformed, with declines of -3.57% and -3.49% respectively[31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining investment in technology sectors (AI, robotics) and utility sectors, as well as brokerage firms, reflecting a shift from cyclical to innovation-driven market dynamics[18][21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the Political Bureau emphasized a more optimistic tone regarding the economic outlook, despite ongoing uncertainties and challenges. The focus is on maintaining macroeconomic policies while enhancing flexibility and foresight to adapt to changing conditions [3][5]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance and Policy Adjustments - The Political Bureau meeting acknowledged the strong performance of major economic indicators in the first half of the year, highlighting the resilience and vitality of the economy. However, it also pointed out the risks and challenges that remain, such as insufficient domestic demand and difficulties faced by some enterprises [2][3]. - The meeting did not call for increased macroeconomic adjustments compared to previous years but stressed the importance of policy continuity and stability, indicating a lower probability of significant policy tightening in the short term [5][6]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - A key focus of the meeting was on accelerating the construction of a long-term mechanism to expand domestic demand. The government aims to effectively release consumption potential and stimulate consumer spending through various initiatives [9][10]. - The meeting highlighted the need to deepen the implementation of consumption promotion actions and to ensure that policies are not merely about increasing liquidity but are part of a systematic approach to economic revitalization [10]. Market Structure and Competition - The meeting emphasized the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market to optimize market competition and address issues of disorderly competition. This includes legal measures to regulate market behavior and improve the overall market environment [11][12][13]. - The government aims to break down local protectionism and market segmentation, which are seen as barriers to economic circulation and growth [12][13]. Real Estate Sector - The meeting acknowledged the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on stabilizing the market and promoting urban renewal. The government plans to implement measures that support the real estate sector while ensuring it remains a pillar of the national economy [14][15]. - The emphasis is on a long-term perspective, with a focus on quality and efficiency in urban development rather than merely expanding supply [15][16]. Future Economic Strategy - The meeting outlined three major tasks for the second half of the year: enhancing domestic demand, promoting a unified market, and developing a new real estate model. These tasks are seen as essential for achieving high-quality economic growth [9][14][16]. - The government remains committed to monitoring economic conditions closely and is prepared to adjust policies as necessary to respond to unexpected changes in the domestic and international landscape [16].

宏观：本周（7月21日-7月25日，下同）宏观面偏向利空。海外方面，美联储公布了最新的利率决议， 一如市场预期，该央行仍将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%区间不变，美元指数仍保持强势，压制金属价 格。美国劳工部1日公布最新非农业部门就业数据，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至4.2%，当月 非农业部门新增就业岗位为7.3万，低于市场预期的11万。同时，美国5月和6月份非农业部门新增就业 岗位数量从此前公布的14.4万和14.7万分别被大幅下调至1.9万和1.4万，显示美国就业市场明显降温。此 外，近期中美经贸团队就重大议题进行深入交流，同意推动美方已暂停的对等关税24%部分以及中方反 制措施如期展期，并将继续沟通以稳定双边经贸关系。国内方面，中共中央政治局会议部署下半年经济 工作，强调宏观政策持续发力，实施积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政策，并推动资本市场回稳向好。央 行召开2025年下半年工作会议，会议要求坚持稳中求进工作总基调，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加 力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等，进一步深化金融改革和高水平对外开放，防范化 解重点领域金融风险。 电解铝： 供应：国内电解铝运行 ...

Macro Policy - The macro policy emphasizes the release of existing policy effects, advocating for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy[1] - The meeting did not reiterate the previous mention of "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" from April[1] - The Ministry of Finance has reported six cases of hidden debt accountability, stressing the importance of preventing and resolving hidden debt risks as a political task[1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is tightening regarding debt management, with a focus on actively and prudently resolving local government debt risks and prohibiting new hidden debts[2] - The Ministry of Finance has emphasized strict accountability for those responsible for hidden debts, reinforcing the crackdown on illegal activities related to new hidden debts[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has not mentioned "timely interest rate cuts" but emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and promoting a decline in overall financing costs[3] Consumption and Investment - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting service consumption and implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, particularly in cultural, tourism, and healthcare sectors[4] - Investment strategies include high-quality promotion of "two重" construction and the establishment of new policy financial tools to enhance investment returns[4] Market Competition - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition order, with a focus on regulating chaotic competition among enterprises[5] - Specific measures include conducting cost investigations in industries with significant "involution" competition issues[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum price is expected to adjust within a short - term range [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The view is that it will run in a volatile and consolidating manner [4] Aluminum Ingots - In July 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,261 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease from the previous period and a 5.8% decrease year - on - year. In August, alumina's support for costs will be evident [4] - In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month, and the demand for bauxite will grow. The supply of bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting in August, and the inventory accumulation rate of bauxite in China is expected to slow down, with the inventory likely to reach an inflection point from August to September [4] - In July, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.05% year - on - year and 3.11% month - on - month. On August 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 564,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last Thursday and 31,000 tons from last Monday [4] - Currently in the off - season, inventory is accumulating, and the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to move within a range, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue adjusting, and it is recommended to wait and see. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Policy Information - On August 1st, the list of "two major" construction projects worth 800 billion yuan for this year has been fully issued, and the central budget - internal investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically issued. [3] Production Capacity Utilization - Last week, the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.37 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 40,900 tons year - on - year. [3] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.05%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 15.11 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 74.21%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 12.75 percentage points year - on - year. [3] Market Performance and Influencing Factors - The price of finished steel rose first and then fell last week with large fluctuations. In terms of weekly fundamentals, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased and inventory increased, while the supply, demand, and inventory of hot - rolled steel all increased. The fundamentals are slightly bearish, but market sentiment has a greater impact on the market. [3] - The Politburo meeting last week was relatively calm, with no unexpected statements on anti - involution and real estate, which put pressure on the previously excited market. Recent market trends are greatly affected by macro factors and sentiment, with large price fluctuations. [3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand conditions should be focused on. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic and corporate profit factors are rated as neutral. In July, the prosperity of the three major industry indices generally declined. Supply - side manufacturing saw a double - drop in production and demand. Externally, demand showed resilience, with a smaller decline in new export orders than new orders. Extreme weather and falling demand dragged down the production start - up rate. The "anti - involution" initiative was effective, alleviating low - price competition and boosting raw material and ex - factory prices, thus improving corporate business expectations. [3] - Macro - policy factors are rated as neutral - to - bullish. The Central Political Bureau Meeting on July 30 emphasized improving the implementation efficiency of existing policies, with relatively limited signals for new incremental aggregate policies. Market expectations for real - estate incremental policies were adjusted. Policy statements in the consumption and investment fields remained consistent. The "anti - involution" related wording was adjusted, which may reflect a change in policy focus. [3] - Overseas factors are rated as neutral. From July 28th to 29th, Sino - US representatives held the third round of economic and trade talks in Stockholm. Both sides had in - depth, candid, and constructive exchanges and would promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures. [3] - Liquidity factors are rated as bullish. As of July 31st, the A - share margin trading balance was 1978.5 billion yuan, an increase of 3.727 billion yuan from the previous week. The A - share margin trading purchase amount accounted for 11.5% of the total market turnover, at the 97.2% quantile level in the past decade. [3][32] - The investment view is to buy on dips. In the short term, as macro - level positives are gradually realized, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down, and market fluctuations and adjustments should be watched out for. In the long run, this year's futures index market has been more driven by valuation expansion, with relatively weak profit drivers. Currently, there is still support at the valuation level. For example, although the current price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 has returned to the median, the ERP is still at a historically high level (74.25% quantile), and with Huijin's support for liquidity, valuation factors are expected to continue to play a role. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Market Review - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 1.75% to 4054.9; the SSE 50 fell 1.48% to 2754.1; the CSI 500 fell 1.37% to 6213.2; the CSI 1000 fell 0.54% to 6670.5. [5] - In terms of futures, the IF main contract of the CSI 300 fell 1.96%, the IH main contract of the SSE 50 fell 1.47%, the IC main contract of the CSI 500 fell 1.56%, and the IM main contract of the CSI 1000 fell 0.76%. [6] - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, last week, Medicine and Biology (2.9%), Communication (2.5%), Media (1.1%), Electronics (0.3%), and Social Services (0.1%) led the gains, while Non - Ferrous Metals (- 4.6%), Real Estate (- 3.4%), Transportation (- 3.2%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (- 3%), and Power Equipment (- 2.6%) led the losses. [8] - In terms of trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures was 584321 lots, with a 7.33% change; SSE 50 futures was 290211 lots, with a 6.13% change; CSI 500 futures was 490539 lots, with a 7.75% change; CSI 1000 futures was 1086841 lots, with a 14.10% change. The open interest of CSI 300 futures was 261869 lots, with a 0.65% change; SSE 50 futures was 96900 lots, with a - 0.55% change; CSI 500 futures was 220244 lots, with a - 2.36% change; CSI 1000 futures was 338220 lots, with a 3.42% change. [12] - As of August 1st, the annualized discount of the current - month contract IF2508 was 7.8%; IH2508 was 0.12%; IC2508 was 19.97%; IM2508 was 20.98%. The annualized discount of the next - month contract IF2509 was 4.65%; IH2509 had an annualized premium of 0.07%; IC2509 was 13.09%; IM2509 was 14.26%. The annualized discount of the current - quarter contract IF2512 was 3.71%; IH2512 had an annualized premium of 0.21%; IC2512 was 10.75%; IM2512 was 12.17%. The annualized discount of the next - quarter contract IF2603 was 3.38%; IH2603 had an annualized premium of 0.18%; IC2603 was 9.77%; IM2603 was 11.47%. [16] - The spread between the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 closed at 1300.8, at the 84.1% historical quantile level; the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 closed at 457.3, at the 65.8% historical quantile level. The ratio of the CSI 300 to the CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 33.3% historical quantile level; the ratio of the SSE 50 to the CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 36% historical quantile level. [20] 3.2 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Liquidity - In terms of the money market and macro - liquidity, the central bank conducted 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market this week, with 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan. Next week, 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases will mature. [26] - As of July 31st, the A - share margin trading balance was 1978.5 billion yuan, an increase of 3.727 billion yuan from the previous week. The A - share margin trading purchase amount accounted for 11.5% of the total market turnover, at the 97.2% quantile level in the past decade. Last week, the daily trading volumes of A - shares were 1619.1 billion yuan, 1662.8 billion yuan, 1709.2 billion yuan, 1782.1 billion yuan, and 1466.6 billion yuan respectively, with an average daily trading volume 64.06 billion yuan less than the previous week. As of August 1st, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.92, at the 75.7% quantile level in the past decade. [32] 3.3 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Profit - In terms of China's macro - economic indicators, in June 2025, GDP at constant prices was 5.2%, industrial added - value year - on - year was 6.8%, fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year was 2.8%, real - estate investment was - 11.2%, infrastructure investment was 4.6%, manufacturing investment was 7.5%, social consumer goods retail was 4.8%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, CPI was 0.1%, PPI was - 3.6%, the increment of social financing was not provided, the growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, new RMB loans were 2360 billion yuan, M1 was 4.6%, M2 was 8.3%, exports in US dollars were 5.9%, imports in US dollars were 1.1%, manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, and non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%. [35] - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 from June; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, a decrease of 0.4 from June. Among them, new orders, new export orders, production, and other sub - indices all declined to varying degrees, while the production and operation activity expectation index increased by 0.6. [42] - In terms of the profitability of major broad - based indices, as of March 31, 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the CSI 300 was 3.32%, and the return on equity (ROE) was 9.75%; for the SSE 50, the net profit growth rate was - 0.19%, and ROE was 10.21%; for the CSI 500, the net profit growth rate was 7.39%, and ROE was 5.99%; for the CSI 1000, the net profit growth rate was 3.34%, and ROE was 5.12%. [47] 3.4 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Policy Drivers - A series of macro - policies have been introduced, including the Central Urban Work Conference held from July 14th to 15th, which pointed out that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage, and urban development is shifting from large - scale incremental expansion to stock quality improvement. The meeting deployed seven key tasks. [52] - The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1st emphasized governing low - price disorderly competition in enterprises and introduced a series of monetary policy measures. [53] - The State Council's press conference on May 7th announced a series of measures from quantitative, price - based, and structural monetary policies, such as reducing the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points and lowering policy interest rates. [53] 3.5 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Overseas Factors - In the United States, in July, the manufacturing PMI was 48%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI data was not fully provided, with a decrease of 50.8 percentage points from the previous value. The seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate was 4.2%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July was 61.7, an increase of 1 from the previous value. [60][62] - In June, the year - on - year growth rate of PCE was 2.58%, and the core PCE was 2.79%; the year - on - year growth rate of CPI was 2.7%, and the core CPI was 2.9%. [63] - Trump's team has made a series of tariff - related statements and actions, including threatening to impose tariffs on imports from China, Canada, Mexico, and other countries, and implementing "reciprocal tariffs" policies, which have led to China's counter - measures. [69][71] 3.6 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Valuation - As of August 1, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.1 times, 11.3 times, 30.2 times, and 41 times respectively, at the 65.4%, 79.5%, 71%, and 63.3% quantile levels in the past decade. [76]