据智通财经消息，近日，美国财政部公布的数据显示，2025年3月，美债前三大海外债主中，日本、英国增持美国国债，中国 减持。中国由美国第二大债主变为第三大债主，英国变为第二大债主。3月正值本轮美债市场动荡前夕。美国财政部2025年3 月国际资本流动报告（TIC）显示，日本3月增持49亿美元美国国债，持仓规模为11308亿美元，依然是美国第一大债主。中国 3月减持189亿美元美国国债至7654亿美元，为今年首次减持。 如果按这个速度维持下去，预计在今年之内，中国持有的美债将跌破7000亿美元。而在美方公布这个数据之际，刚从中东返 美的特朗普也表态了，声称自己愿意前往中国，并强调"这对中美关系很重要"。事实上，在还没有上任的时候，特朗普就表 示他准备在100天内访华，但最终这个计划未能实现。而且，在特朗普原定的关税计划中，他准备先"捏软柿子"，中国则是放 在最后的"硬骨头"。但中方率先站出来，对美国的"对等关税"实施反制，打乱了特朗普的计划。 美国（资料图） 在美国国内经济增长乏力，债务危机又迫在眉睫的情况下，中国减持美债，将使美国经济面临更大压力。这种局面，显然是 美方不愿看到的。就在当地时间5月16日，特朗普在 ...

请务必阅读文后重要声明 第1页，共2页 投资咨询系列报告 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年05月26日08时03分 | 原油 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 指标 | 单位 5月23日 | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | | 百分比 | | Sc 原油期货 | 元/桶 452.80 | -0.90 | -0.20% | -3.40 | -0.75% | | WTI | 美元/桶 61.76 | 0.95 | 1.56% | -0.73 | -1.17% | | Brent | 美元/桶 65.03 | 1.00 | 1.56% | -0.30 | -0.46% | | Sc-WTI 内外价差 | 美元/桶 1.20 | -1.09 | -47.59% | 0.27 | 29.60% | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 -2.07 | -1.14 | 122.35% | -0.16 | 8.15% | | Brent-WTI | 美元/桶 3.27 | 4.2 ...

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with gold surpassing $3,300 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs on the EU, have negatively impacted U.S. stock indices, leading to a decline in major tech stocks [2] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] Group 2 - Copper and oil prices have also risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, with WTI crude oil settling at $61.53 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.78 per barrel [3] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in production, which may influence oil prices further, while the copper market has seen a price increase of over 5% in May [3] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on metal exports is becoming evident, but low inventory levels are providing some support for metal prices [4]

那就是在过去中国是美元体系的支柱之一，而当下，中国则逐渐开始从美元体系中撤出，而外加此次中美关税战中，中国的表现，可以说，时代的脚步已经 不远了。 从曾经的第一，到后来的第二，当下却罕见地成为了全球第三。可以说，在美债市场，中国做出了重大改变。而此次中国减持189亿美元和中国此次成为全 球第三来说，这次的排名是非常罕见的，而且这更是对全球释放了一个巨大的信号。 罕见！25年来第一次 罕见，25年来第一次。可以说，这个时间点就非常的耐人寻味，如果放长远，其实看到的是中国不断增持美债，不断从后边冲到了第一，而当下却降低到了 第三，这对于美国以及全球来说，意义重大。 为何说意义重大呢？因为在过去，美国一直说，自己的美元是石油美元，其实石油美元只是美国的一条大腿，而另外一条大腿则是，中国的商品。中国大量 的商品为美元背书，降低美国的通胀，而中国赚取的大量美元却选择投资美国债市。 最后的结果就是，美国只需要发债借钱就行，而中国则是负责将美元扩散到全世界，同时大量地储备美元，输出商品，从而平息美国发债带来的通胀。 可以说，这是过去中美一直维持的局面。但是当下却不同了，因为中国从第一大债权国变成了第三大，这就意味着，中国开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent rise in US Treasury yields is driven by concerns about US fiscal sustainability, inflation expectations pushed up by US tariff policies, and a weakening demand for US Treasuries. Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has caused short - term upward pressure on yields, and the US tariff policy has increased short - term inflation risks, with the 1 - year inflation expectation reaching 7.3% in May. The demand for US Treasuries has weakened, especially in the long - term bond primary market, leading to a steeper yield curve [2][10][15]. - The impact of rising US Treasury yields on the domestic bond market is limited. The domestic bond market is mainly driven by domestic demand and is expected to be moderately strong with an oscillatory trend. Domestic institutions are the main players in the domestic bond market, and the monetary policy is domestically focused and expected to remain loose [3][24]. - In the bond market trading strategy, the approach of taking profits on price increases and adding positions on price drops is recommended. Attention can be paid to the allocation value of 6 - 7 - year China Development Bank bonds. Currently, the new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and new 30 - year Treasury bonds are more cost - effective, and the new - old bond spread of the 30 - year Treasury bond 2500002 is expected to widen further [4][27][28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Reasons, Outlook, and Impact of the Rise in US Treasury Yields - **Reasons for the Rise in US Treasury Yields** - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has increased market concerns about US debt risks, causing short - term upward pressure on yields [2][10]. - The US tariff policy has increased short - term inflation risks. The uncertainty of the policy has pushed up the inflation expectations of the US household sector, with the 1 - year inflation expectation reaching 7.3% in May, making it difficult for long - term Treasury yields to decline [2][10]. - The demand for US Treasuries has weakened. The primary market subscription enthusiasm has declined, especially for long - term bonds. As of May 9, the subscription multiple of long - term Treasury bonds in May dropped to 1.97 times from 2.33 times in April, and the weaker long - end subscription sentiment has steepened the yield curve [15]. - **Outlook for US Treasury Yields** - In the short term, US Treasury yields are expected to oscillate at a high level. The high uncertainty of the US tariff policy, persistent inflation expectations, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and weakening demand for US Treasuries make it difficult for yields to decline. However, the pressure for a significant further increase in yields is controllable due to the possibility of Fed rate cuts and a weakening US economy [24]. - **Impact on the Domestic Bond Market** - The impact of rising US Treasury yields on the domestic bond market is limited. Domestic institutions are the main players in the domestic bond market, and the monetary policy is domestically focused and expected to remain loose. The domestic bond market is expected to be moderately strong with an oscillatory trend [3][24]. 2. Bond Market Trading Strategies - Adopt the strategy of taking profits on price increases and adding positions on price drops [4][27]. - Focus on the allocation value of 6 - 7 - year China Development Bank bonds [4][27]. - The new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and new 30 - year Treasury bonds are more cost - effective. The 30 - year Treasury bond 2500002 has become an active bond after its listing, and its new - old bond spread is expected to widen further as there are still 3 additional issuances planned [4][27][28].

证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250525 建议关注未上市泛科技转债标的 2025 年 05 月 25 日 相关研究 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20250519- 20250523）》 2025-05-24 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250519-20250523）》 2025-05-24 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 上周（0519－0523）美债收益率长端周 k 连续 4 周收阳，同时短端在上 周结束了 3 周连阳，长短端的分化导致期限利差继续走扩，联同市场对 美债短期供需失衡的担忧，曲线趋向"熊陡"；同时如果从 25 年以来 看变化，收益率曲线整体是下移的，因此目前的上移也可以理解为对联 储降息预期收敛的某种短期修复。困难的是我们很难区别结构性因素 （美债供需）和周期性因素 ...

Market Overview - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) surged nearly 20% last week, indicating increased market volatility [1] - The U.S. market faced a triple hit in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5% and the dollar index dropping to its lowest level of the year [1] - Concerns over rising debt and the impact of Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating have heightened fears, leading to increased Treasury yields and a significant impact on market risk appetite [1][3] Economic Data - Recent U.S. economic data remains robust, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising from 50.2 to 52.3, marking the largest month-over-month increase since June 2022 [3] - The Services PMI also increased to a two-month high of 52.3 from 50.8 [3] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 0.2 thousand to 227 thousand, below the expected 230 thousand, while continuing claims rose by 36 thousand to 1.903 million [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the implications of the U.S. credit rating downgrade and market instability, with officials expressing caution regarding its potential impact on monetary policy [4] - The market anticipates that the Fed's first interest rate cut may be delayed until the fourth quarter of this year [5] Market Sentiment and Risks - The recent surge in long-term Treasury yields has raised concerns, with the 30-year yield reaching over 5%, the highest level since the financial crisis [5][6] - The market is facing renewed fears related to tariffs and trade wars, particularly following President Trump's latest tariff threats against the EU, which have led to significant declines in major stock indices [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the market must navigate several challenges, including potential tariff increases from the EU and the performance outlook of key companies like Nvidia [6]

今天我就带你一步步拆解： 川普到底在打什么算盘？全球市场为何震荡？对中国投资者又有哪些实用启示？ 第一件，川普向欧盟发 出关税威胁。 在川普的眼里，美国就是被欧洲揩了油。 他认为，美国军事上协防欧洲、 美国在欧洲多个国家驻军，总兵力接近9万人，大大节省了欧洲的军费 开支。贸易上还被占便宜， 现在欧盟一年对美贸易逆差超过2.5亿美元，简直无法接受，必须立即改 变。 他说，建议从6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税，而如果产品在美国制造或生产，则无须缴纳 关税。 这两天，川普连放两颗"重磅炸弹"： 一是威胁对欧盟商品加征50%关税，二是要对"没在美国生产的手 机"征税25%，苹果、三星首当其冲。 消息一出，欧洲股市跳水，美元大跌，美债收益率飙升，苹果股价单日重挫3%。资本市场的情绪，一 下子就被点燃了。 但这背后，不只是川普的"嘴炮"或竞选造势，而是美欧博弈、中美谈判、美债压力的多重共振。 话音刚落，欧洲股市和欧元对美汇率就出现了大跳水。 为什么川普突然威胁欧盟呢？ 早在5月中旬，美欧已就数字贸易、投资准入、关税结构等领域交换过谈判草案，但欧盟近期态度趋 硬，拒绝接受美式"10%底线协议"。 有欧盟官员表示："10% ...

这世界真是太割裂了。中国利率1.5%的东西抢破脑袋…美国5%的国债无人问津。 昨天晚上，美股走到一半的时候突然下跌，为什么呢？ 因为美国20年期国债拍卖惨败，几乎没有买家！价格突然暴跌，美债收益率瞬间飙升，超过了5.1%。 有趣的是，中国这边，最近一段时间各家银行纷纷下调存款利率，就以建设银行为例，活期利率下调5个基点至0.05%； 定期整存整取三个月期、半年期、一年期、二年期均下调15个基点，分别为0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%； 三年期和五年期均下调25个基点，分别至1.25%和1.3%； 说1.5%利率的东西能在中国抢破头，真是一点都不吹嘘。 特朗普加关税，有一部分原因不也是为了弥补庞大债务的这个窟窿么。 收入的四分之一都用来还这些债务的利息了。 这时候你能怎么办呢？所以特朗普也一直给美联储施压，让美联储赶紧降息，因为利率越高，这些债务要还的钱越多呀。 但是借新还旧也是有前提的，美债规模的扩张速度一定要跟它国内的GDP和财政收入规模匹配。如果他不考虑这些，一股脑无节制地印下去，美元的信用 是会崩塌的。 这样就是为什么昨天晚上的美债没人买，为什么穆迪要下调美国的信用评级，因为大家都担心他信 ...

413亿美债一抛了之，中国的这一举动再次成为全球瞩目的焦点！在当今全球对美债的风险避让情绪浓厚、各国减少持有美债的大背景下，中国采取了措 施，迅速减少美债持有量，并试图削弱美元与人民币的联系。而此时，日本与英国却走向相反的道路，继续大量购买美债，令局势更显扑朔迷离。 今年2月和4月，我国先后出售了186亿和227亿美债，这一举动在国际间引发了巨大的反响。作为全球持有美债最多的国家之一，中国此举无疑对美国经济产 生了不小的冲击。那么，难道美债即将贬值？为什么中国会作出这样的决策呢？ 与中国的做法截然相反，英国和日本这两个拥有大量海外资产的国家却对美国抱有极大的信任，认为美国经济将持续增长。在中国抛售美债时，这两个国家 却在大量回购美债，分别增持7000亿和1.16万亿美元，显然不顾国内局势的紧张，表现出对美国的坚定信心。 那么，日本和英国的举动究竟有何深意？如果它们都无法接手美债，那么还有谁能在这片困局中拯救将倾的美国呢？ 这使得局势变得更加扑朔迷离。如果中国抛售美债是因为美元贬值的风险，那么日本和英国为何在此时反其道而行之，疯狂购入美债呢？这一矛盾让人深 思。 当然，中国并非唯一一个对美债失去信心的国家，其他 ...