Core Points - The U.S. government signed an executive order named "reciprocal tariffs" to strengthen its voice in international trade and reduce the growing trade deficit [1] - The reciprocal tariff policy includes imposing tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods, affecting economies like the EU, China, and Japan [1] - In Southeast Asia, countries like Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar have significantly higher tariff rates compared to the EU and Japan [1] Tariff Rates Summary - The initial reciprocal tariff rate for China was set at 34%, later increased to 84% and then 125% [3] - China responded by raising tariffs on U.S. imports, with soybean tariffs increasing from 10% to 44% [3] - The price increase of consumer goods in the U.S. ranged from 10% to 20%, impacting low- and middle-income families significantly [3] Tariff Rate Table - The table lists various countries and their corresponding reciprocal tariff rates, with notable rates including: - Vietnam: 46% - Laos: 48% - Japan: 24% - EU: 20% [4] Rare Earth Elements Overview - China controls a significant portion of the global rare earth market, holding 36% of the total reserves [7] - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for rare earth elements, with over 90% of its needs met through imports, primarily from China [7] - Rare earth elements are crucial for military and high-tech applications, with 35% of U.S. rare earth usage allocated to military purposes [8] China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China possesses 88% of the global heavy and medium rare earth resources, which are vital for high-tech applications [11] - The U.S. faces challenges in rare earth refining technology, with costs significantly higher than those in China [11] - China's control over rare earth separation patents and refining capacity gives it a strategic advantage over the U.S. [11] Global Rare Earth Production - In 2024, global rare earth production reached 390,000 tons, with China contributing 69.23% of this output [13] - If China imposes restrictions on rare earth exports, the U.S. supply chain, particularly in the renewable energy and military sectors, would face severe disruptions [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, silicon metal, lithium carbonate, coke [1] - **Bullish**: Corn (mid - term), urea [1] - **Sideways**: Index futures, gold, silver, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, nickel, ferronickel, stainless steel (short - term), rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, ferroalloys, ferrosilicon, glass, soda ash, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, PE, BPP, PVC, caustic soda, LPG, container shipping [1] 2. Core Views - The current market is affected by multiple factors such as weak economy, asset shortage, global trade frictions, and policy changes. Different varieties show different trends due to their specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment [1]. - For most commodities, short - term trends are often influenced by immediate news and short - term supply - demand imbalances, while long - term trends are determined by fundamental supply - demand structures and macro - economic conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Lack of driving factors, likely to continue weak sideways movement [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Short - term sideways, long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level sideways, limited upward space in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) increase concerns about supply shortages [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports prices in the short term, but upward space is limited as prices rise [1] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, and the downward momentum of futures prices is weakening [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term weak sideways after price decline, long - term surplus pressure exists. Pay attention to inventory changes [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short - term weak sideways, long - term supply pressure remains. Pay attention to steel mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Supply recovery expectations are strengthening, and prices have significantly corrected in the short term [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: In the window period from peak to off - peak season, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with no upward driving force [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Potential risk of weakening exports, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with unclear price rebound drivers [1] - **Iron ore**: Expectation of peak iron - making output, but no new stories on the supply side. Pay attention to steel pressure [1] - **Ferroalloys**: Short - term supply - demand balance, high warehouse receipt pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area make supply - demand tight [1] - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices may weaken due to the rainy season [1] - **Soda ash**: Short - term demand is okay, but medium - term supply is excessive, and prices are under pressure [1] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply - demand is relatively excessive. Coking coal provides positive arbitrage and selling hedging opportunities when the futures price is at a premium. Coke is bearish [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: Limited upward driving force, expected to maintain range - bound movement [1] - **Soybean oil**: Argentine weather impact is limited, and there is arrival pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Concerns about supply shortage, and it is possible to consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term affected by trade negotiations and weather, long - term affected by macro uncertainties. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the production volume may exceed expectations if crude oil is weak [1] - **Corn**: Medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [1] - **Soybeans**: Short - term no obvious bullish drivers, expected to maintain range - bound movement. Long opportunities for M11 and M01 can be considered [1] - **Pulp**: Port inventory is rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to move sideways [1] - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is recovering, and the futures price is at a discount. The futures price is expected to be stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: Affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and summer consumption season [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, inventory accumulation, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural rubber**: Futures - spot price difference has returned, affected by exchange policies, and inventory has decreased [1] - **BR rubber**: Short - term sideways, long - term downward pressure due to weak demand [1] - **PTA**: Supply - demand tension has been relieved, and short - fiber cost is closely related [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Continuing to reduce inventory, and the impact of polyester production cuts is ongoing [1] - **Short - fiber**: Cost is closely related to PTA, and the tight situation has been alleviated [1] - **Styrene**: Speculative demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and the spot - futures price gap persists [1] - **Urea**: High daily production, increased short - term export demand expectations, and a possible rebound [1] - **Methanol**: High domestic production, increasing arrivals, and entering the inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be weak sideways [1] - **PE**: Seasonal demand is weakening, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **BPP**: Maintenance support is limited, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **PVC**: Fundamentals are weak, but there is short - term rebound due to macro - level positives [1] - **Caustic soda**: Low inventory, sufficient orders, and subsequent trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Prices are weak, with narrow - range fluctuations, and are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Container shipping**: Strong expectations but weak reality. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling during the price - support period. Light - position long positions can be considered for peak - season contracts, and arbitrage opportunities exist [1]

【铝】 隔夜沪铝偏弱震荡。近期铝市库存顺畅去库至低位，强现实局面维持，不过六月需求面临季节性转 淡和贸易摩擦的考验，沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置仍面临阻力，考虑逢高偏空参与。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，布伦特07合约涨1.07%。昨日第39届0PEC+部长级会议宣布维持25-26年产 量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定2027年产量基线，5月31日自愿减产8国的快速增 产指引仍令市场担忧。昨日利比亚东部政府表示可能宣布油田和港口的不可抗力，尽管遭到利比亚 国家石油公司否认,相关供应风险仍对市场构成支撑。上周API美原油库存超预期下降423.6万桶, 关注今晚EIA库存结果。原油总体仍存OPEC+增产压力与供应风险并存的震荡期，关注供应风险明朗 后的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属回落。美国国际贸易法院阻止美国总统特朗普的"解放日"关税生效,裁定特朗普征收 全面关税属于越权行为。特朗普政府将提起上诉，最终结果仍有待观望。美联储会议纪要显示由于 经济不确定性加剧,失业率和通胀率上升的风险增加,决策者观望的政策立场不应改 ...

据北京日报消息，2025年5月22日，外交部副部长马朝旭同美国常务副国务卿兰多通电话，就中美关系及共同关心的重要问题交换了意见。双方同意 继续保持沟通。 特朗普（资料图） 稀土（资料图） 美国F-35战机每架需417公斤稀土材料，特斯拉人形机器人每台消耗23公斤稀土，然而，美国试图绕开中国供应链的企图最终落空。在联合声明中， 并未出现美方所期望的相关条款。这背后是冰冷的现实，中国在稀土产业上的优势地位并非一朝一夕形成，而是经过多年的发展和积累。中方在协 议中明确保留管制权，仅承诺打击走私，这一立场既体现了中国维护自身产业安全的决心，也向世界表明，中国不会在核心利益问题上轻易让步。 在这次通话中，我国就只答应了一件事，那就是同意继续保持沟通。在这之前，中美高层日内瓦会谈结束后，美国将对中国商品加征关税从145%降 至30%，中国也将对美国商品加征关税从125%降至10%，双方降幅相同。那次会谈就是在特朗普多次向中国释放对话信号的背景下，我国在经过评 估过后才同意的。从这一点其实也不难看出，特朗普确实对关税战感到了害怕。 美国对中国加税的行为换来了中国的反制，在中国多次有效的反制之下，美国的第一季度GDP都出现了 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has signaled new tariffs on European products, potentially increasing tariffs by 50% on certain EU goods starting June 1, which could significantly impact European companies like Airbus and Volkswagen [5][11][12] - Japan has halted trade with China following U.S. pressure, indicating a shift in trade dynamics and potential alignment with U.S. interests [12][14] - The U.S. strategy may involve leveraging allies to create a "coalition" against China, aiming to apply maximum pressure during trade negotiations [14][16] Group 2 - China's manufacturing is deeply integrated into the U.S. economy, with essential goods that American consumers rely on, making it difficult for the U.S. to fully substitute Chinese imports [18][20] - The global supply chain is adapting, as Chinese companies are exploring alternatives to U.S. propane, indicating a shift in sourcing strategies that could undermine U.S. market positions [20][22] - The ongoing trade negotiations are complex, with each side calculating their moves carefully, suggesting that the situation is far from resolution [24]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tariffs by the United States on Japan has raised significant concerns within Japan, prompting the government to support domestic industries in response to the potential negative impacts on the economy and society if the current tariff rates persist [1][3]. Impact on Export Industries - The U.S. tariff measures directly affect Japan's export industries, which are crucial for the country's economy. As Japan relies heavily on exports, the tariffs reduce the price competitiveness of Japanese products in the U.S. market, leading to decreased profits and market share for companies [3]. - Some Japanese companies anticipate a reduction in profits for the current fiscal year, with small and medium-sized enterprises expressing concerns about their future outlook. This profit decline could hinder investment and innovation, negatively impacting Japan's long-term economic growth [3]. Trade Relations and Tensions - The tariff measures may escalate trade tensions between Japan and the U.S. Despite three rounds of tariff negotiations, no agreement has been reached, with Japan seeking a complete removal of the tariffs and the U.S. rejecting this request. Continued U.S. tariff policies could provoke retaliatory measures from Japan, further straining trade relations and affecting global trade dynamics [3][4]. Social Impact on Small and Medium-sized Enterprises - The impact of U.S. tariffs is particularly pronounced on Japan's small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which play a vital role in the economy by providing employment opportunities. If these businesses face operational difficulties due to tariffs, it could lead to layoffs and increased unemployment, threatening social stability [3]. - The challenges faced by SMEs may also stifle regional economic vitality, adversely affecting local economic development across Japan [3]. Government Response and Long-term Implications - In response to the tariffs, the Japanese government has implemented subsidy and financing support measures to alleviate short-term financial pressures on companies. However, these measures may increase the government's fiscal burden in the long run, necessitating a balance between supporting domestic industries and maintaining fiscal stability [4]. - To navigate the uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies, the Japanese government and businesses need to adopt proactive strategies, including diplomatic negotiations with the U.S. to lower tariffs and enhancing trade cooperation with other countries to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [4]. - Companies should focus on transforming and upgrading their operations to enhance product value and competitiveness in light of the challenges posed by tariffs [4].

Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the economic bottom line may have improved compared to the period of increased trade friction, with government investment accelerating and consumer promotion measures continuing to exert influence on demand expansion [1][5][39] - It emphasizes a balanced allocation between growth and value, with a focus on large-cap stocks due to their stronger earnings certainty in the current market environment [1][5][43] Market Style Rotation - The report indicates that large-cap stocks are outperforming small-cap stocks, with a balanced valuation style observed across growth and value indices [2][12] - It highlights that consumer, growth, and large-cap styles are expected to dominate, suggesting a preference for these sectors in the current market [2][13] Industry Allocation - The report recommends focusing on four key sectors: coal, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and finance [3][5] - In the coal sector, prices are expected to stabilize due to supply contraction and the upcoming peak demand season [3][5] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is highlighted for its potential valuation re-rating, supported by record-breaking investment and favorable policy trends [3][5] - The military industry is noted for its growth potential driven by geopolitical tensions and the need for self-sufficiency [3][5] - In finance, the report points out that both banks and non-bank financial institutions are currently underweighted, with the securities sector showing higher value compared to insurance [3][5] Calendar Effect - Historical data from June 2010 to 2024 indicates that large-cap growth styles tend to outperform during this month, with specific sectors like electronics, home appliances, and food and beverage showing strong performance [4][12] Next Month's Sector Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on large-cap stocks, suggesting a balanced approach between growth and value, with an emphasis on coal, innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and financial sectors [5][39]

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices closed slightly lower overnight, with the Brent 07 contract down 0.8%. The market driver may shift to the medium - term logic. After the US - Iran nuclear talks on Friday, the focus may return to supply - demand. With inventory accumulation and OPEC+ production increase, oil prices may fluctuate weakly around the May 31 OPEC+ meeting [2] - Precious metals fell overnight. Gold is still bullish in the long - term, but currently in a volatile adjustment. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [3] - High - sulfur fuel oil's FU cracking spread is expected to oscillate at a high level. Low - sulfur fuel oil's unilateral trend follows crude oil, with weak supply - demand guidance [21] - In June, domestic asphalt refineries plan to produce 231 million tons, a 14.4% year - on - year increase. Demand shows seasonal improvement but is still lower year - on - year. The BU cracking spread is under pressure [22] - Overseas LPG supply is abundant and weakening. Domestic terminals have high inventory, and the short - term fundamentals have limited improvement power. The market runs weakly [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, Lun copper oscillated slightly. LME inventory continued to decline. Hold short positions in the second - half - year contracts [4] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly. The market is in a strong - reality situation. Test the resistance at 20300 yuan. Consider selling on rallies if it breaks through [5] - Guinea's alumina mine production impact expansion is unlikely. Spot is tight in the short - term, but the long - term is pessimistic. Don't chase short positions [6] - SMM 0 zinc is at 22,730 yuan/ton. With the end of the peak season, zinc is mainly for short - allocation [7] - Shanghai lead is running weakly. Keep an eye on consumption performance in the future [8] - Nickel and stainless steel markets are weak. Nickel iron inventory increased by 900 tons, and pure nickel inventory decreased by 2,000 tons. Consider short - entry [9] - Tin prices oscillated lower. Continue the short - allocation idea [10] - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded. The market is waiting for supply - demand improvement. Short - sellers should take profit opportunistically [11] - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to decline. Supply pressure accumulates, and demand is weak. Silicon prices are expected to decline [12] - Polysilicon prices rebounded to above the cost line. In June, supply is expected to increase, and prices may run weakly [13] - Steel prices continued to decline overnight. In the off - season, demand is weak, and supply pressure is high. The market is bearish [14] - Iron ore prices oscillated weakly. Supply is in a seasonally strong stage, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate weakly [15] - Coke prices rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom. Carbon supply is abundant, and pay attention to the negative feedback [16] - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom. Supply is abundant, and don't be overly bearish [17] - Manganese silicon prices continued to decline. The fundamentals have slightly improved. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs [18] - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated narrowly. Demand is okay, and prices are still weak due to the black market [19] Group 3: Chemicals - Styrene supply increases, and inventory may rise slightly. Downstream demand is weak [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene markets are weak. Supply and demand support is limited [27] - PVC prices continue to weaken. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [28] - PX supply increases, and demand is expected to be low. PTA is in de - stocking. There is pressure on supply increase and demand weakening in the long - term [29] - Ethylene glycol's near - term supply - demand is good, but there will be pressure after June [30] - Short - fiber prices follow raw materials and oscillate weakly. Bottle - chip production is increasing, and consider short - term processing margin repair [31] - Glass prices are weak. Inventory pressure is high, and supply is volatile. Be cautious [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and demand is slightly decreasing. Synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, and inventory is increasing [33] - Urea futures lack upward momentum. The market oscillates weakly in the short - term [24] - Methanol supply is expected to increase significantly. The market runs weakly, and pay attention to the macro impact [25] Group 4: Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices are generally falling. Supply is loose, and there is no continuous upward driver [34] - Domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices oscillate. Supply is increasing, and they follow US soybean prices [35] - Rapeseed meal and oil are recommended to be long - biased. Rapeseed meal may be stronger [36] - Domestic soybeans oscillate. Import supply is abundant from May to July, and weather affects prices [37] - Corn prices may oscillate weakly. Supply is increasing, and pay attention to inventory changes [38] - Live pig futures oscillate weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the medium - long term [39] - Egg futures fall sharply, and spot prices rebound. Egg prices may decline after the Dragon Boat Festival [40] - Cotton prices are affected by US - China relations. Inventory is decreasing, and consider option strategies [41] - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate. Brazilian production is the focus, and domestic supply and demand are stable [42] - Apple prices are weak. Market focuses on new - season production estimates [43] - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season [44] - Pulp prices fall. Inventory is still high, and demand is weak. Consider buying on dips [45] Group 5: Others - The CCFI (European Line) may be at the end of the decline. The spot price is close to the central level. Pay attention to the peak - season price increase [20] - A - shares oscillated lower. With overseas risk preference rising, A - shares may oscillate more evenly in the short - term [46] - Treasury bond futures oscillate weakly. Directional strategies may not break through, and curve steepening needs data support [47]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to experience fluctuations, with the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors showing resilience, while external disturbances and policy dynamics contribute to ongoing market adjustments [1][2][6]. Market Analysis - The A-share market is currently in a state of rotation, with sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and food and beverages performing well, while technology sectors like precious metals, consumer electronics, and semiconductors are experiencing pullbacks [2][6]. - Analysts predict that the current state of market fluctuations may persist until mid-June, influenced by external risks and domestic policy measures [5][6]. - The market is characterized by a cautious sentiment due to external trade tensions and a lack of significant domestic policy surprises, leading to a concentration of funds in high-dividend, low-valuation assets [6]. Structural Opportunities - Analysts from Xingye Securities highlight three key areas for potential investment opportunities: 1. Technology sector, particularly high-tech manufacturing [8]. 2. Domestic demand sector, represented by services [8]. 3. Dividend-focused investments to mitigate market uncertainties [9]. Fund Launch and Features - A new batch of floating fee rate funds has been launched, which ties management fees to performance metrics and holding periods, offering a more dynamic fee structure compared to traditional funds [12][14]. - The floating fee structure allows for varying management fees based on whether the fund outperforms or underperforms its benchmark, providing a more performance-aligned investment approach [14][15][16]. Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to consider various factors beyond fee structures when selecting funds, including the fund's investment style, strategy, and the track record of fund managers [18][19]. - Floating fee rate funds may be particularly suitable for long-term investors and those sensitive to fee structures, as they align management incentives with investor performance [20].

自今年1月中旬以来，国际油价累计跌幅已超10%，核心压力源自两大因素：一是特朗普政府对多国加 征关税引发的全球贸易紧张局势，中国等经济体采取的反制措施进一步加剧市场对能源需求前景的担 忧;二是OPEC+产油国联盟逐步退出自愿减产协议，其持续增产行为与需求疲软预期形成共振。 据知情人士透露，该组织已决定将原定于6月1日召开的联合部长级监督委员会(JMMC)会议提前至5月31 日举行，会议将重点讨论沙特、俄罗斯等8个核心成员国7月的具体产量配额。上周，OPEC+技术委员 会已就"连续第三个月增产"展开初步磋商，但具体增幅仍存分歧。 当前市场处于多空因素交织的敏感期：一方面，贸易摩擦升级可能抑制全球经济增长及原油消费;另一 方面，OPEC+若能在会议上释放谨慎增产信号，或为油价提供阶段性底部支撑。交易员正等待更多政 策端线索，以判断下半年供需平衡表的演变方向。 智通财经APP获悉，在石油输出国组织(OPEC+)即将召开关键产量政策会议之际，国际油价维持窄幅波 动。市场参与者正密切关注欧美贸易关系缓和的可能性，同时消化主要经济体地缘政策变动带来的连锁 反应。 受伦敦证券交易所和纽约市场因假日休市影响，5月27日(周一 ...