Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Japan's inflation is persistently above the Bank of Japan's target, with the CPI rising 3.6% year-on-year in March, marking 36 consecutive months above the 2% target [1] - The core CPI in March also increased by 3.2%, remaining elevated for 43 months, suggesting a sustained inflationary environment that supports the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the central bank [1] - The latest data shows that the core CPI in Tokyo rose by 3.4% in April, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures, particularly driven by rising wages [2] Group 2 - Japan's GDP has shown resilience, growing by 2.9% annually, with exports increasing for six consecutive months, reflecting strong economic activity supported by both domestic and external demand [3] - The services sector PMI has remained robust, providing a counterbalance to the manufacturing sector, which is still below the growth threshold [3] - The Bank of Japan has adjusted its economic outlook, lowering GDP growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, while also revising down its core CPI expectations, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [5] Group 3 - The yen has become the best-performing currency among G10 currencies this year, attracting international investment, despite the ongoing depreciation against the dollar due to significant interest rate differentials [4] - The potential for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan remains, although the pace may be influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariff policies, which introduce uncertainty into Japan's economic outlook [4][5] - The Bank of Japan has not indicated a halt to interest rate increases, with the governor emphasizing that further hikes could occur if economic growth and inflation align with expectations [5]

Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall actual inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at low percentiles since the pandemic[2] - If assuming that the inventory of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers only serves domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales[2] - The low inventory-to-sales ratio may indicate limited buffer space against supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to upward pressure on inflation[2] Industry-Specific Insights - In the retail sector, the actual inventory-to-sales ratio for furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics is low at only 1 month, placing it in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic[3] - Conversely, the inventory-to-sales ratio for motor vehicles and parts, as well as building materials, exceeds 2 months, with motor vehicles at approximately 2.5 months (88.5% percentile) and building materials at about 2 months (85.2% percentile)[3] - In manufacturing and wholesale, machinery, textile raw materials, and related products have higher inventory-to-sales ratios, all exceeding 2 months, with machinery at 2.9 months (83.6% percentile) and textile raw materials at 2.8 months (70.4% percentile)[3] PMI and Inventory Trends - As of April, the ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index decreased to 50.8% from 53.4% in March, indicating a cooling in pre-tariff stockpiling behavior[4] - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels[4] - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines[4]

英国4月建筑业PMI为46.6，预期45.7，前值46.4。 ...

德国4月建筑业PMI 45.1，前值40.3。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures opened high and closed low on the first trading day after the holiday, with the rebar 2510 contract closing at 3077 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 92,500 lots. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume fell. Given the challenges in steel exports and the transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May, the market supply - demand may face weakening pressure. It is expected that the rebar futures will continue to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend, closing at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. With a decrease in Australian shipments due to berth maintenance and an increase in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory, the iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 25,843 lots. The coking coal market is weak. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. It is expected that the coking coal futures will trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Coke: The coke futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 1502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 2.34% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 4,825 lots. Spot prices fell. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5560 yuan/ton, down 2.76% from the previous day, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed to improve the situation [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5398 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous day. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Rebar futures opened high and closed low, with a decline in spot prices and trading volume. The decline in the April PMI index and the challenges in steel exports led to cautious market expectations. The transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May may bring weakening pressure on supply - demand. The rebar futures are expected to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. There were changes in supply, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory. The iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures declined, with a weak spot market. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. The coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures declined, with a decline in spot prices. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, hitting a new low since the second half of 2017. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being - 32.0, down 6.0, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 43.0, down 10.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 133.0, up 9.0, and the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 100.4, up 0.1 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties showed different trends. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3210.0, down 10.0, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 759.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was 120.6, down 2.7, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 119.0, up 11.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the historical basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of rebar to coke [40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the historical profits of rebar futures, long - process production, and short - process production from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [51]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry awards [51]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].

资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-07 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | | | | | | 20250414 | 2025 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The main contracts show a bearish sentiment with 23 contracts rising and 50 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - Significant declines were observed in crude oil (-3.69%), rubber board (-3.51%), and fuel oil (-3.40%), likely influenced by macroeconomic concerns or changes in supply-demand fundamentals [6] Group 2: Key Commodity Movements - Leading gainers included the China Securities 1000 (+2.39%), No. 20 rubber (+2.16%), and urea (+1.95%), suggesting strong interest in these commodities [5] - The most significant inflows were seen in China Securities 1000 (30.84 million), indicating a strong focus from major funds [8] Group 3: Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were recorded for apple (+40.06%), caustic soda (+16.87%), and焦炭 (+13.02%), suggesting new funds entering the market [11] - Conversely, significant reductions in open interest were noted for short rice (-6.59%) and rubber board (-23.08%), indicating potential fund withdrawals [11] Group 4: Agricultural Commodities - China's imports of Brazilian soybeans are expected to reach 12 million tons in May, improving domestic soybean supply significantly [12] - The oil factory operating rate is anticipated to rise, with a projected soybean crushing volume of 8.3 million tons in May, driven by high supply pressure and increased processing [12] Group 5: Global Economic Indicators - The global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1%, indicating increased economic downward pressure, with the index remaining below 50% for two consecutive months [15] - China's manufacturing PMI also decreased to 50.4, reflecting a slowdown in economic expansion [13] Group 6: Palm Oil Market Insights - Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to increase by 24.62% in April, with total production reaching 1.73 million tons, indicating a supply-side pressure on prices [16] - The palm oil market is expected to face downward pressure due to increased production and weak demand, with prices closing at 7974 yuan/ton [29]

中经院表示，数据反映"大部分厂商被关税吓到了"。面对关税不确定性，制造业厂商对前景担忧从而变 得保守。 数据显示，制造业六大产业中，三大产业PMI呈现紧缩，分别为交通工具产业(47.1%)、化学暨生技医 疗产业(48.2%)与基础原物料产业(48.7%)，另外三大产业PMI虽仍保持扩张，但均录得明显下跌。 未来展望指数则中断连续3个月扩张，指数骤跌23.1个百分点至36.0%，创下新冠疫情以来最大跌幅。六 大产业之未来展望指数皆滑落至20.0%至40.0%的紧缩速度。 据新华社台北电(记者李建华、杨晓静)台湾中华经济研究院公布的最新数据显示，4月台湾制造业采购 经理人指数(PMI)骤跌5.3个百分点至48.9%，结束连续两个月扩张转为收缩，未来展望指数创新冠疫情 以来最大跌幅。分析认为，美国关税政策影响厂商对未来前景的看法，厂商态度保守，多选择观望。 中经院近日公布的数据显示，在台湾PMI五项组成指标中，新增订单指数由2024年7月以来最快扩张速 度(56.8%)骤跌9.3个百分点至47.5%；生产指数也中断连续两个月扩张转为收缩，指数大跌8.3个百分点 至47.5%。中经院指出，新增订单指数与生产指数大跌并 ...

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-05-06 4 月 PMI 回落，关税扰动初现 ——宏观景气度系列四 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 4 月中国制造业 PMI 为 49.0（-1.5pct MoM）；非制造业 PMI 为 51.9（-1.5pct MoM）。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 PMI 供给：制造业生产回落。4 月生产指数为 49.8，较上月变化-2.8 。供应商配送时间指数 为 50.2，较上月变化-0.1 。 需求：制造业需求回落。4 月新订单指数为 49.2，较上月变化-2.6 。新出口订单指数为 44.7，较上月变化-4.3 。在手订单指数为 43.2，较上月变化-2.4 。 供求平衡：供需关系小幅改善但未扭转。4 月供需指数（需求-供给）为-0.6 ，较上月变 化 0.2 ，较去年同期变化 1.2 ，较过去三年均值变化 1.1 。 价格：制造业盈利收缩。4 月原材料价格指数为 47，较上月变化-2.8 。出厂价格指数为 44.8，较上月变化-3.1 。出厂价格-原材 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in Q1, with annualized inflation-adjusted GDP down 0.3%, far below the average growth rate of about 3% in the past two years. Net exports dragged GDP by nearly 5 percentage points, and consumer spending grew at only 1.8%, the weakest since mid-2023. Business equipment spending was the only bright spot, growing at an annualized rate of 22.5% [3] - In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. Non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range. High-tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand, and manufacturing enterprises focusing on domestic sales had stable production and operations [3] - The US and Ukraine jointly created the Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. The ownership and control of resources in Ukraine remain with Ukraine. The fund will be jointly managed by the two countries with a 50:50 ratio, and neither has a dominant voting right. The fund will be filled entirely by new license revenues [4] - OPEC+ announced that 8 participating countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The gradual increase may be suspended or reversed depending on market conditions [4] - US employment growth was strong in April, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 (expected 130,000), and the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.2%, indicating that the uncertainty of Trump's trade policy has not significantly affected recruitment plans [4] Group 2: Commodity Market - The capital proportions of different commodity sectors are as follows: non-metallic building materials 2.52%, precious metals 29.74%, oilseeds 12.51%, soft commodities 3.18%, non-ferrous metals 19.54%, coking coal and steel minerals 12.98%, energy 2.70%, chemicals 12.36%, grains 1.91%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.56% [5] - Key commodities to focus on include urea, crude oil, plastic, glass, and lithium carbonate [6] Group 3: Asset Performance - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major indices are as follows: Shanghai Composite Index -0.23%, 0.00%, -2.17%; SSE 50 -0.47%, 0.00%, -1.92%; CSI 300 -0.12%, 0.00%, -4.18%; CSI 500 0.48%, 0.00%, -1.64%; S&P 500 0.15%, 1.46%, -3.93%; Hang Seng Index 0.51%, 1.74%, 12.19%; Germany DAX 0.32%, 3.77%, 17.26%; Nikkei 225 0.57%, 2.18%, -7.68%; UK FTSE 100 0.37%, 1.19%, 5.18% [8] - The performance of major commodities shows different trends, such as WTI crude oil -3.69% daily, -1.63% monthly, -20.41% annually; London spot gold -0.85% daily, -1.45% monthly, 23.49% annually; LME copper -3.34% daily, 2.64% monthly, 6.65% annually [8]