货币的轮回——百年黄金史复盘 20260109 摘要 历史上有几个重要时期推动了黄金牛市。首先是十九世纪的金本位制，当时各 国货币以法定含金量为锚，并且金币可以自由铸造、自由流通，使得黄金成为 国际储备与结算手段。然而，由于战争和经济危机期间无法满足发展的需求， 这一体系逐渐瓦解。 第二个重要时期是布雷顿森林体系（1,944-1971），该 体系确立了美元以固定价格同黄金挂钩，并形成美元-黄金间接锚定体系。然而， 由于特里芬难题，美国面临内外部经济压力，以及石油危机导致滞胀，使得布 雷顿森林体系最终崩溃。 第三个重要时期是 20 世纪 70 年代至 80 年代初，这 一阶段经历了两次石油危机和美国政策失调，引发高通胀环境下的抗通胀需求， 使得金价在此期间快速上涨。这轮超级牛市历时 9 年，涨幅达到 23 倍。 第四 个重要时期是 21 世纪初至 2012 年的金融属性主导的资产配置牛市。在这一 阶段，美国经历 911 恐怖袭击事件后陷入衰退，同时全球化达到了高峰，但也 累积了系统性风险并引发金融危机。这一轮牛市中，互联网技术基础设施不断 完善，大数据和人工智能技术逐步突破，也为下一轮科技浪潮埋下伏笔。 不确定 ...

2026 年 1 月 12 日 贵金属月报 地缘政治风险升级，贵金属热度难降 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 18 | 图表 | 1 近 5 年 | | SHFE 金银价格走势 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 近 5 年 | | COMEX 金银价格走势 4 | | | 图表 | | | 3 金价与美元指数走势变化 4 | | | 图表 | 4 | | 金价与美债利率走势变化 4 | | | 图表 | | | 3 金价与美元指数走势变化 5 | | | 图表 | 4 | | 金价与美 ...

电解铝 ：宏观基本面共振 铝价实现开年红 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 ◼ 宏观：地缘政治风险叠加去美元化预期推动资金青睐实物资产有色金属，资金流入推动价格上涨。后续关注美国就业数据及美国对对等关 税的裁决。同时关注伊朗地区地缘政治风险。 ◼ 产业供应：近期无超预期变动，供给端刚性预期明显，越南电解铝项目投产预期从二季度推迟至7月初。负基差较大带动短期铸锭增加、 铝棒加工费短期转负，后续持续关注铝水就地转化率。 ◼ 产业需求：表观需求短期有所走弱，但下游仍逢低积极备货，出库端无显著异动。光伏出口退税取消，一季度抢出口窗口期预计对铝需求 有一定影响。 ◼ 库存：本周铝锭及铝棒社库厂库合计109.61万吨，环比显著增加，但增量主要与期现基差较大、存套利机会有关，后续预计仓单有所增 加。 ◼ 交易逻辑：铝在供给端全球持续存缺口且供给弹性较低、需求端在能 ...

后，去美元思潮反而将更加强烈。 短期，受伊朗局势、委内瑞拉、格陵兰岛事件影响，去美元化有受阻的趋势，这一单一维度下，美元出 现反弹。但相比美元的反弹，以及疲弱的美股，避险资金选择了贵金属及其他金属。 2、美元与能源价格的关系。自 2022 年美国成为油气资源净出口国，美元与能源价格的反向关系消失。 反而，能源价格上涨美元下跌对美国本土能源出口企业来说是利 好。但石油价格的上涨会推升美国的通胀。这对现有美国脆弱的金融体系来说，是一个巨大的压力。对 于这一压力，川普政府的抓手目前来看，仅有科技一个抓手。但这一抓手又有来自于中国的激烈竞争， 无论是美国的 AI 还是航天通讯产业都面临着来自中国的剧烈竞争压力。 3、短期的冲击+未来中长期的去美元化浪潮将推升短期的避险情绪。这是在过去 1 年多的时间里我们 所看到的，当贸易战加剧，避险资金并未如以往一样流入美元或者美债或者其他美元资产，特别是去年 四季度，美股横盘调整，美元下跌而贵金属上涨。 4、美国战略的外溢效应。自俄乌冲突以来，欧洲一直受到能源短缺的约束，工业、经济持续萎靡，一 直依靠财政扩张支持，而这条路到了 2026 年，显然财政扩张的路推进起来更为困难。脱美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that by 2025, the dollar's credibility faces significant challenges, with gold prices soaring and the dollar depreciating, leading to a decline in its share of global foreign exchange reserves [1][5] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold holdings to enhance the diversity and stability of their asset portfolios, resulting in a substantial rise in international gold prices, with over 60% increase in the London spot gold price throughout 2025 [3] - The dollar index has dropped from around 108 at the beginning of 2025 to approximately 98 by the end of the year, marking a cumulative decline of 9.4%, the worst performance in eight years [5] Group 2 - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves continues to decline, with the International Monetary Fund reporting a decrease from 57.08% in Q2 2025 to 56.92% in Q3 2025, remaining below 60% for over ten consecutive quarters, the lowest since 1995 [7] - The value of gold reserves, when converted to dollars, has increased due to soaring gold prices, with gold's share in central bank reserves surpassing that of U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, rising to over 25% [9] - Experts indicate a declining risk appetite for dollar assets among global capital, suggesting that the downward trend in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves is unlikely to reverse, leading to a more diversified international monetary system [9]

"前阵子抢都抢不到的黄金，现在居然降价了！"2026开年，持续火热的黄金市场迎来降温，国际现货黄金在4490美元/盎司附近震荡，国内金价跟着回调， 上海黄金交易所、各大金店和银行的价格都出现松动。对想入手黄金的人来说，这波回调是抄底机会还是陷阱？国内最新金价到底多少？央行购金放缓、美 联储政策摇摆背后，普通人该怎么操作？用大白话一次性说透。 先看最核心的国内最新金价，不同渠道价格差异不小，一张表就能看明白： ? 上海黄金交易所：Au99.99报价约1005元/克，Au(T D)跌破1005元，沪金期货主力合约1007元左右，比上周高点回落了2?%； ? 品牌金店（足金999）：全国平均价1386元/克，比上个月降了50多块。深圳水贝作为黄金集散地，价格低至1245元/克，北京、上海、广州等一线城市在 1283-1290元之间，海南因税费和消费环境，价格仍坚挺在1302元； ? 银行金条：工商银行、建设银行维持在1021元/克左右，中国银行1024元/克，中国黄金工艺金条1020元/克，整体波动不大； 如果是长期投资者（打算持有3年以上），这波回调确实是个机会。世界黄金协会预测，2026年金价可能再涨15?0% ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global commodity market in 2025 exhibited a stark divergence, with precious metals experiencing a significant bull market while oil and black commodities faced oversupply issues [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, saw remarkable price increases, with gold rising over 60% and silver soaring 102% [2] - The agricultural market showed mixed results, with oilseeds benefiting from biofuel policies while grains remained subdued due to ample supply [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver emerged as the strongest sectors, driven by "de-dollarization" and interest rate cuts, leading to a substantial increase in gold purchases by central banks [2] - Central banks net purchased 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly above pre-2022 averages [2] - The global gold ETF holdings increased by over 700 tons, reaching a total of 3932 tons, marking a record annual growth [2] Group 3: Base Metals - Copper and aluminum prices strengthened due to a balanced supply-demand dynamic, with copper prices reaching a historical high of 13,387.5 USD/ton [3] - A projected cumulative copper mine deficit of 3.13 million tons from 2026 to 2029 is anticipated due to supply instability [3] - Demand for copper related to green transition initiatives is significant, with investments in electric grids and data centers driving consumption [3] Group 4: Oil and Black Commodities - The oil market is characterized by a significant oversupply, with a daily surplus of 1.795 million barrels expected in 2025 [4] - The black commodities sector, particularly steel, is struggling, with steel mill profitability dropping from 68.4% to 36.4% [4] - Diesel markets are experiencing strength due to reduced Russian exports, despite overall oil market challenges [4] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Oilseeds are performing well, driven by increased biofuel blending ratios in Indonesia and Brazil, leading to an 8% growth in industrial consumption [4] - Other agricultural products, such as corn and soybeans, are expected to see price declines due to favorable supply conditions [4] Group 6: Future Outlook - The commodity market is expected to continue its divergent trends into 2026, influenced by a "weak recovery and loose monetary policy" macroeconomic backdrop [6] - Strategic security, green transition, and emerging demand are identified as key structural opportunities for investment in 2026 [6] - Precious metals and core base metals are projected to maintain strong support, while the oil market is expected to remain under pressure [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, global central banks made a significant shift by prioritizing gold over U.S. Treasury bonds as their primary reserve asset, marking the first time since 1996 that gold surpassed U.S. debt in global central bank reserves, with gold valued at approximately $3.93 trillion compared to $3.88 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Behavior - Central banks have been purchasing gold at record levels, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually for the past three years, nearly double the average of the previous decade [3]. - As of June 2025, 95% of surveyed central banks indicated plans to continue increasing their gold reserves, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [3]. - Emerging economies, particularly Russia and China, have significantly increased their gold holdings, with Russia accumulating 915 tons and China 544 tons over the past decade [5]. Group 2: Dollar Credibility and Economic Context - The safety of dollar assets has come under scrutiny, especially after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia, leading to a realization that dollar reserves could also be "weaponized," undermining the long-standing consensus on the safety of the dollar as a reserve asset [5]. - As of 2025, the U.S. national debt exceeded $37 trillion, with annual interest payments surpassing $1 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [5]. - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 42%, with the International Monetary Fund reporting a decline to 56.32% in mid-2025, the lowest since 1995 [15]. Group 3: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged from $1,618 per ounce before the Fed's rate hike cycle began in 2022 to $4,584 per ounce by the end of 2025, reflecting a cumulative increase of nearly 180% [10]. - Analysts predict continued bullish trends for gold, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and suggesting potential spikes to $4,500 or even $5,000 per ounce under certain conditions [16]. - The trading volume in the gold market reached a historical high in October 2025, with daily trading averaging $561 billion, a 45% increase from previous levels [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's legislative action in early 2026 aims to pressure seven countries, including China, India, and Brazil, to cut off oil imports from Russia, reflecting a continuation of the U.S. strategy to contain Russia and reassert dominance in the global energy landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Brazil - Brazil has become the second-largest importer of Russian diesel, with imports exceeding 7 million tons in 2024, driven by structural demand [4][6]. - Over 20% of Brazil's diesel supply relies on imports, with Russian diesel priced at $0.54 per liter, significantly lower than local refinery prices, impacting transportation costs and inflation [6][8]. - The Brazilian government has expressed opposition to unilateral sanctions, emphasizing that normal international trade should not be politically coerced [7][8]. Group 2: India's Position - India, the third-largest crude oil importer, saw its dependence on Russian oil peak in November 2025, with Russian oil accounting for 35.1% of total imports [11]. - Despite U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on some Indian exports, India has not issued a directive to halt Russian oil imports due to the stability and affordability of Russian oil [12]. - India's strategy reflects a balance between not openly opposing the U.S. while prioritizing its own economic interests, indicating a pragmatic approach to energy security [12][13]. Group 3: China's Response - Following the U.S. sanctions, China firmly opposed unilateral sanctions, asserting that energy cooperation with Russia is a normal trade practice [13][15]. - In 2024, China imported 108.47 million tons of crude oil from Russia, making it the largest supplier, and is advancing projects like the "Power of Siberia" gas pipeline [16][17]. - The deepening energy cooperation between China and Russia includes a shift towards local currency settlements, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar [20][22]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The U.S. sanctions are perceived as ineffective against the backdrop of the economic interdependence of these nations, which prioritize their own interests over U.S. directives [22][24]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting towards a multipolar world, where countries are increasingly questioning the fairness of U.S.-led rules and seeking alternative arrangements [24][36]. - The ongoing energy cooperation among China, India, and Brazil represents a challenge to U.S. dominance, as these nations assert their economic sovereignty against external pressures [35][39].

2025年12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中升破7.0元关口，最高触及6.9985，创下15个月新高。 这道看似简单的汇率曲线，背后是一场持续整年的全球 资本重配：人民币对美元全年升值突破3.5%，美元指数则从年初的110点高位跌至97点左右，跌幅接近10%。 美元疲软的直接推手是美联储的政策转向。 2025年9月，美联储宣布降息25个基点，这是2025年以来的首次降息。 而在此之前，特朗普政府对外加征关税、 对内实施减税的政策，已经加剧了市场对美国债务可持续性的担忧。 美国联邦政府的债务已攀升至37万亿美元，每年仅债务利息支出就超过1万亿美元，这 给美元带来了沉重压力。 美联储的降息决策并非完全出于经济考量。 特朗普自上任以来持续向美联储施压，甚至安插亲信进入理事会。 这种政治干预让美联储的独立性受到质疑， 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上强调"就看我们怎么做"来维护央行独立性，但市场明显不相信降息只是单纯的经济决策。 人民币的强势崛起背后是中国经济基本面的坚实支撑。 2025年前11个月，中国货物贸易顺差达1.0758万亿美元，充足的外汇储备为人民币汇率提供了坚实基 础。 外资配置人民币资产的兴趣明显增强，上半年 ...