风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 2月6日，黄金股板块反攻，黄金股票ETF（517400）翻红，近20日净流入超13亿元 华泰证券指出，2022年之后，逆全球化背景下，央行等金融机构正在进行资产再配置；持续增配黄 金，成为金价中长期上涨的基石。基于黄金在全球个人及机构金融资产中的配置比例，对黄金长期价格 中枢进行测算。若地缘冲突风险常态化，全球资产持续去美元化，黄金定价锚或由实际利率主导框架向 信用风险对冲框架转移。若2026-2028年可投资黄金占比超过2011年顶点（3.6%）达到4.3-4.8%，期间 金价有望升至$5400-6800/oz。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投 资实物黄金，免征增值税的黄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The valuation of domestic assets is at a low level, and the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [9]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Gold has allocation and hedging value, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue the weak oscillation pattern. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15]. - The coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [17]. - The ferroalloy market has an overall over - supply pressure, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. - The relationship between the US and Iran is volatile, and the capital is still bullish on crude oil. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21]. - The fuel oil supply in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding. The fuel oil price has room to rise, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins weakens, and cautious operations are recommended before the festival [26]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, and positions should be gradually controlled before the festival [29]. - The natural rubber market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports and the recovery of demand after the festival [33]. - The urea price is expected to be in an oscillatory and strong pattern, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - The PX market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the changes in macro - policies and fundamentals [39]. - The PTA market is expected to be in an oscillatory operation pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be in an oscillatory bottom - building pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. - The short - fiber market is expected to follow the cost - end logic. It is recommended to wait and see carefully and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [44]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end operation. It is recommended to participate cautiously before the festival and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [45]. - The soda ash market has a loose fundamental situation and should be treated with caution [46]. - The glass market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern before the festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [48]. - The caustic soda market has high - production, low - demand, and high - inventory characteristics. It should be treated with caution [49]. - The pulp market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control is necessary [53]. - The copper market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern before the festival [54]. - The aluminum market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [56]. - The zinc market is expected to enter an adjustment period [58]. - The lead market is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern [60]. - The tin market has support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [62]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [63]. - For soybean meal, the demand continues to grow moderately, and long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [64]. - The palm oil market may consider buying on dips [66]. - The rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets are recommended to wait and see for now [69]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. It is recommended to buy in batches at low levels after a full correction [71]. - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [75]. - The apple market is expected to be in a small - range oscillation in the short term and strong in the medium and long term. It is recommended to go long in batches after a correction [77]. - The pig market is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the changes in supply and consumption around the Spring Festival [80]. - The egg market is recommended to wait and see, as the supply in February may remain at a relatively high level [83]. - The corn and corn starch markets are expected to follow the corn market. It is necessary to wait for the release of supply pressure [84]. - The log market shows a strong performance on the disk, but the fundamental improvement needs time. Attention should be paid to external quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 64.5 billion yuan on the day. The service trade in 2025 showed steady growth [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends [8]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures prices fell. In 2025, domestic gold production increased, but consumption decreased. The US ISM service PMI index declined slightly [11]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and gold has allocation and hedging value. However, the short - term market fluctuations may increase, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak oscillation. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the supply pressure increases. The prices may continue the weak oscillation pattern [13]. - Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the port inventory is at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern is weak [15]. - The futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. The supply of coking coal may decline during the Spring Festival, and the demand for coke is weak [17]. - The futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose slightly. The supply of ferroalloys is still in a loose state, but the short - term oversupply has weakened [19]. - After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose first and then fell. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. OPEC + may maintain the decision to suspend production increases in March [20]. - The relationship between the US and Iran is volatile, and the capital is still bullish on crude oil. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is strong, and the trading volume of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil paper futures increased [23]. - The fuel oil supply in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding. The fuel oil price has room to rise, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market fell. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins weakens [26]. - Cautious operations are recommended before the festival [26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The price of raw materials rose, the supply decreased slightly, the demand improved year - on - year, and the inventory increased [28]. - The market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, and positions should be gradually controlled before the festival [29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The overseas supply is shrinking, the demand is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [31]. - The market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The price was supported by exports and costs, but the high inventory and weak demand restricted the price increase [33]. - The market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports and the recovery of demand after the festival [33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell slightly. The supply increased, the demand was driven by exports and the market sentiment, and the industry profit increased [37]. - The price is expected to be in an oscillatory and strong pattern [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, and the PX operating rate increased slightly [39]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the changes in macro - policies and fundamentals [39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased seasonally, and the processing fee rose to the average level of previous years [41]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory operation pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The overall operating load increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream polyester entered the seasonal maintenance period [42]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory bottom - building pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply decreased, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was at a low level [44]. - The market is expected to follow the cost - end logic. It is recommended to wait and see carefully and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [44]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee rebounded, the supply was expected to decrease, and the export increased [45]. - The market is expected to follow the cost - end operation. It is recommended to participate cautiously before the festival and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [45]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak [46]. - The market has a loose fundamental situation and should be treated with caution [46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The number of production lines decreased, the factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory increased significantly [48]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern before the festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The production was at a high level, the inventory was still at a high level, and the downstream demand was weak [49]. - The market has high - production, low - demand, and high - inventory characteristics. It should be treated with caution [49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory continued to accumulate, the domestic supply increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak [52]. - The market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [53]. - The market has strong support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control is necessary [53]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures fell. The geopolitical events increased the risk - aversion demand, the mine supply was disturbed, and the terminal consumption entered the off - season [54]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern before the festival [54]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell, and alumina futures rose. The alumina supply is loose, the electrolytic aluminum production growth is limited, and the demand is weak [56]. - The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [56]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell. The supply tightened, the demand was weak, and the social inventory has not yet started to accumulate [58]. - The market is expected to enter an adjustment period [58]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply was restricted by the shortage of raw materials, the demand was differentiated, and the inventory was extremely low [60]. - The market is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern [60]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. The mine supply was tight, the demand showed some resilience, and the inventory decreased [62]. - The market has support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [62]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The nickel ore policy in Indonesia changed, the production cost increased, the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory was at a relatively high level [63]. - The market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [63]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose slightly, and soybean oil futures fell. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy improved the demand expectation. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil has different trends [64]. - For soybean meal, the demand continues to grow moderately, and long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [64]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market fell. The market expects the inventory to decrease, the production to decline, and the export to increase. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level [66]. - The market may consider buying on dips [66]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price rose. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy and the China - Canada tariff policy have an impact on the market. The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil inventories are at a relatively high level [69]. - The market is recommended to wait and see for now [69]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The external market cotton price fell, and the domestic cotton production increased, but the inventory accumulation was lower than expected. The future supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient [71]. - The market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. It is recommended to buy in batches at low levels after a full correction [71]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly, and the external market sugar price fell. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic sugar supply is sufficient with high imports [75]. - The market is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [75]. Apple - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The market is in the late stage of Spring Festival stocking, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality have declined [77]. - The market is expected to be in a small - range oscillation in the short

后最观点2】影响因素分析：美国恢复原定于6日举行的美伊谈判、中美两国元首通电话等缓和市场避险需求，叠加美元上行风险增加、美股、比特币等大幅走弱、市场再度 网 #fom 担忧流动仪紧冲击，同时国内即将迎来春节，投机资金进一步撤退、打压市场情绪、贵会属市场遭遇二次抛售。但美国AIP数据不佳、周度申请失业金人数反弹, B（Ys、周五市场还将迎来非农就业报告，美元短期上行速变或有所放缓。同时自银现货隔紧格局不改，上期所延续去库，贵金属最为恐慌的地管阶段或已过去。综上，展 ₪Μ 《星后市，春节前，市场资金情绪或较为谨慎，贵金属价格料逐步进入区间震荡走势，但中长期逻辑尚未改变。中长期来看，贵金属牛市的底层逻辑仍旧坚固，在美 供参考) 联储年内仍有降息概率、全球地缘不痛定性持续和美国巨额债务将不断推进去美元化浪潮等背景下，全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续，贵金属价格重心仍 有上行空间,逐步企稳后将带来较好的中长期配置机会。 2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/6 ...

展望后续走势，机构普遍认为，美元指数短期仍将维持震荡反弹态势，但中长期仍面临下行压力。从核 心驱动因素来看，2026年美联储仍处于降息周期，联邦基金利率进一步走低将削弱美元资产收益率优 势，叠加美国政府财政赤字扩大、"去美元化"进程持续推进等结构性因素，美元中长期偏弱格局难有根 本改变superscript:1superscript:3。预计2026年美元指数核心波动区间为92-99，短期反弹高度或受限于98 关口附近，后续走势仍需关注美联储政策表态、美国通胀及就业数据等关键变量superscript:3。 对于全球市场而言，美元短期反弹将对非美货币、黄金及新兴市场资产产生一定压制。非美货币中，欧 元、英镑等近期均呈现震荡回落态势；黄金作为无息资产，受美元走强影响承压下行；新兴市场则需警 惕资金回流美元体系带来的资本外流压力，后续需重点跟踪美元指数走势及美联储政策调整节奏 superscript:1superscript:3。 美国经济数据的边际好转为美元反弹注入动力。近期公布的美国ISM制造业指数重返荣枯线以上，服务 业指数持平于53.8略超预期，显示美国经济复苏动能仍在。尽管1月ADP就业数据逊于预期，反 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating for precious metals is "Overweight" (Maintain) [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the long-term increase in gold holdings by central banks is driven by concerns over the creditworthiness of dollar assets, the need for stable exchange rates in extreme scenarios, and geopolitical risks. It is projected that central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves, stabilizing at around 800 tons per year from 2026 to 2030 [2] - The report anticipates that the average gold price could rise to between $5,400 and $6,800 per ounce from 2026 to 2028, driven by a potential increase in the investment allocation of gold in global financial assets [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Gold Price Projections - The average gold price is expected to reach $6,800 per ounce by 2028, with projections for 2026 and 2027 being $5,463 and $6,059 per ounce respectively. This is based on historical distribution of gold allocation and structural shifts due to de-dollarization and geopolitical factors [6][12] Section 2: Central Bank Demand - Central banks are expected to maintain a long-term increase in gold holdings, with the proportion of gold in reserves projected to rise to 21.4% by mid-2025. If this proportion reaches the historical median of 34% by 2035, the demand for gold could continue to grow [2] Section 3: Non-Investment Demand - Non-investment demand for gold, primarily from jewelry and industrial uses, is expected to stabilize. Jewelry demand is projected to average around 1,951 tons per year, while industrial demand is expected to remain steady at approximately 332 tons per year [3] Section 4: Investment Demand - The report estimates that the stock of gold allocated for personal and institutional investment will gradually increase, with projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 being 85,713 tons, 86,642 tons, and 87,953 tons respectively [4] Section 5: Financial Asset Allocation - There is still room for increased allocation of gold in global financial assets, with the expected market value of investable gold reaching approximately $15.1 trillion, $16.9 trillion, and $19.3 trillion in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [5][16]

就在此时此刻，2026年1月的凛冬里，两股截然不同的寒流正在投资者的脊背上交汇。 一边是网络疯传的"收割论"，预言黄金将变成无人接盘的废铁。 另一边却是现实世界的疯狂扫货，各国央行像不知疲倦的巨鲸，悄无声息地吞噬着市场上的金条。 当所有人把钱换成了黄金。 就会开始收割了。 它就会从1600元一克慢慢 降到300元一克，到时候黄金砸手里根本没人接盘，想变现都没门路。 屏幕上那个数字红得刺眼，像是一记重锤砸在所有人的心口：金价从1600元一克自由落体至300元一克。 这不仅是一个价格预测，更像是一部关于"财富蒸发80%"的惊悚片剧本。 很多人问，当散户恐惧于"砸手里"时，真正的深海巨鲸为何在疯狂加仓？这是资本最后的通牒，还是我们误读了黄金的本质？ 别太天真了，这个市场从来就不是纯粹自由的。 如果这听起来像阴谋论，那就去看看刚刚尘埃落定的那场审判。 直到2025年，法院的一纸定罪书才撕开了华尔街最不体面的伤疤——摩根大通的顶级交易员们，在过去十几年里上演了一出教科书般的"上帝之手"。 从2008年到2016年，这些穿着高定西装的精英实施了超过5万次"幌骗"。 他们虚假报价，制造供需旺盛的假象，引诱散户进场后再瞬间撤 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 缩 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，国内供应收 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日白银再度走弱，跌破本周二低点，黄金也跟随下挫，纽约 ...

2026年02月06日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 540.30 | 536.90 | 531.40 | 442.70 | 435.65 | 424.30 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 599.85 | 592.00 | 585.70 | 461.00 | 456.75 | 450.60 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -46.75 | -39.10 | -42.70 | -8.90 | -11.00 | -18.05 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | -7.96% | -6.79% | -7.44% | -1.97% | -2.46% | -4.08% ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-06 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260204：商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被"错杀"？ 大宗商品市场每一轮流动性冲击和恐慌情绪急跌，在完成"清洗"高杠 杆、高风偏的超涨品种之外，部分依托于供需产业链改善逻辑的品种却也 被流动性风险"误伤"，在风险中心已渐进平息之后，被错杀和被误伤的 商品品种和板块，或再度回归各自基本面定价逻辑，迎来相比轮动式上涨 阶段更好的介入时机。 金融产品深度报告 20260203：黄金 ETF，2026 年 1 月复盘与 2 月展望 事件驱动盘点： 资产配置价值：宏观数据与政策预期在月内反复切换， 降息预期对黄金资产配置价值形成阶段性支撑，但政策不确定性上升亦 带来短期扰动。 货币价值：美元信用变化主导黄金货币属性定价，美元 指数与储备结构调整对金价形成阶段性影响，货币价值在支撑与压制之 间反复博弈。 避险价值：多区域地缘与政治风险交织抬升市场不确定 性，避险需求呈现事件驱动、脉冲式释放特征，为金价提供阶段性支撑。 商品价值：央行购金与投资端需求预期保持稳 ...

据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为1096.14元/克，下跌1.48%。 国际黄金价格报4689.0美元/盎司，下跌4.1%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 机构坚定看多金价长期上行 摩根大通表示，今年各国央行和投资者的黄金需求足够强劲，将推动金价在2026年底前升至每盎司6300 美元，这一看多预期强化了市场对黄金的长期配置信心，为金价提供坚实的底部支撑，也让投资者在短 期波动中更倾向于持有黄金资产。 美联储政策预期反复扰动短期行情 特朗普提名鹰派倾向的凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席后，又强调降息"几乎没有悬念"。叠加美国1月私营 部门就业数据逊于预期，强化了市场对2026年美联储降息的押注，为无息资产黄金提供支撑。同时非农 就业报告推迟发布，市场失去验证降息预期的关键依据，加剧短期多空博弈。 去美元化深化叠加央行购金托底金价 西班牙《机密报》指出金价走势折射美国霸权公信力崩塌，全球半数央行正增持黄金作为应对美元疲软 的战略资产。中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金，全球央行购金趋势延续，为金价提供长期基本面支撑， 削弱短期回调幅度。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎 ...