Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the restart of the easing cycle [2] - The Fed's assessment of the labor market shifted from "labor market remains solid" to "employment growth is slowing," indicating a cautious approach to risk management in the context of the rate cut [2] - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6% and for 2026 from 1.6% to 1.8%, while maintaining the inflation level for 2025 and slightly increasing the inflation forecast for 2026 [2] Group 2 - The Fed expressed concerns about inflation, particularly due to potential impacts from the Trump administration's tariff policies, which could lead to a scenario of "stagflation" if inflation rises uncontrollably [3] - In the event of significant economic deterioration, such as a sharp rise in unemployment or a stock market crash, the Fed may consider aggressive measures, including a potential 50 basis point rate cut [3] - If the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing, the Fed may adopt a more aggressive easing approach, potentially exceeding the projected one rate cut in 2026, influenced by the upcoming midterm elections [3] Group 3 - The expectation of continued monetary easing by the Fed is a key factor driving gold prices higher, alongside concerns about the credibility of the U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks [4] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Gaza situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to market uncertainty and supporting gold prices [4] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, with the potential to challenge the $3700 mark, indicating that the bull market for gold is not yet over [4]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices surged past the $3700 mark, reaching a high of $3757, approaching the historical high of $3800, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle [1] - The immediate catalyst for the price increase is the strong market expectation for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, following a 25 basis point cut last week, marking the beginning of a new easing cycle [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in Gaza, have heightened investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, emphasizing its value during uncertain political and economic times [1] - There are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding further rate cuts, with some officials suggesting limited room for additional cuts if inflation risks rise [1] Technical Analysis - The gold (XAUUSD) chart indicates a bullish breakout above the $3700 resistance level, suggesting continued upward momentum [4] - The MACD indicator shows that the bullish momentum is dominant, although a short-term adjustment may occur due to a recent death cross in the fast and slow lines [4] Trading Strategy - For day trading, a long position is recommended around $3728, with a stop loss at $3712 and a target range of $3748 to $3758 [5] Silver Analysis - The silver (XAGUSD) chart reveals a standard head and shoulders bottom formation, with a strong bullish trend following a breakout to new highs [8] - The MACD indicator for silver also indicates a dominant bullish trend, although a short-term adjustment may be expected due to a recent death cross [8] Silver Trading Strategy - For day trading, a long position is suggested around $43.40, with a stop loss at $43.20 and a target range of $43.80 to $44.20 [9] Economic Calendar - Key economic indicators and speeches from various central bank officials are scheduled, including manufacturing PMI data from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as remarks from Federal Reserve officials [9]

Group 1 - The current strong trend in the gold market remains unchanged, driven by geopolitical risks and ongoing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which are pushing gold prices to new highs [1][3] - The heightened risk aversion and expectations for monetary easing make it unlikely for gold prices to experience a significant pullback in the short term, maintaining an overall upward momentum [1] - Key resistance is noted at the 3780 level, and if this is strongly broken, the next target will be the 3800 psychological level [1][3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the Bollinger Bands on daily and H4 charts are clearly opening, with consecutive bullish candlesticks showing strong buying interest and no significant adjustment signals yet [3] - Important resistance is located near 3780, while support can be referenced at the hourly level around 3730; if a deeper pullback occurs, attention should shift to the support zone around 3710 [3] - The recommendation is to focus on buying on dips, and if prices directly surge to the 3780-3800 range, partial profit-taking is advised, with further buying considered if prices retreat to the 3735-3730 area [3]

故日内操作上张津镭建议： 黄金：激进可以在3740-3738做多，止损3703，目标看3780-3770一线。若是跌破3730,可反手出多做空， 看3700-3680一线。 来源：黄金分析师张津镭 张津镭：决战鲍威尔讲话夜！黄金失控暴涨后，如何布局？ 昨日黄金走了一个大涨行情，开盘便小幅上扬，多次试探3700未破，不过午盘后开始上扬，在突破3700 后果断出场空单并反手做多，随后金价开始不断刷新历史新高。晚间最高是到了3748美元，多单亦是于 3730上方直接止盈离场。最终金价是收盘于3746美元，日线收于一根大阳线。 周二（9月23日）金价是再创历史新高，主要还是当前市场核心驱动力在于美联储降息预期的持续发 酵，以及地缘政治风险的支撑。新晋理事米兰（Miran）主张更为激进的降息路径，甚至曾在会议中投 票支持降息50个基点。其观点虽非主流，但显著提升了市场的宽松预期。 今晚重点关注美联储主席鲍威尔将就经济前景发表讲话，以及周五将公布美国8月核心PCE物价指数。 若鲍威尔释放鸽派信号或PCE数据显示通胀温和，将进一步强化降息预期，为金价提供上行动力；反 之，若态度谨慎或数据强劲，可能引发金价短线回调。 从技术 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have been on an upward trend, reaching historical highs, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1][2][4]. Price Movements - As of September 22, the spot price of London gold reached a historical high of $3726.70 per ounce, marking an increase of nearly 8% from the opening price of $3447.50 per ounce on September 1 [1][2]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 40% [1]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% has caused fluctuations in gold prices [2]. - Following the rate cut, gold prices initially fell but rebounded due to ongoing expectations of further rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks [2][3]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that while some investors took profits after the rate cut, the overall sentiment remains bullish due to expectations of continued monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4]. - Central banks are still in a net buying position for gold, indicating strong demand despite high prices [4]. Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected as some investors may choose to take profits, but long-term trends remain positive due to ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical risks [4]. - UBS Wealth Management anticipates that gold will continue to be a strong asset for portfolio diversification and risk hedging, supported by a weaker dollar and strong central bank buying [4].

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has completely divested its shares in BYD, citing increased competition in the Chinese automotive industry, slowing performance, and geopolitical risks as key reasons for the decision [3][4][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Selling BYD - Increased competition in the Chinese automotive sector has led to a slowdown in BYD's performance, with five out of six major automotive companies reporting reduced profits or losses in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The profit growth rate of BYD has also declined compared to the previous year, indicating a potential ceiling on its performance [3]. - Geopolitical risks have influenced Berkshire's decision to reduce its stake in BYD, with the holding dropping below 5% by June 2024 [4]. Group 2: Shift to Japanese Investments - Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stake in Japanese trading company Mitsui & Co., with the shareholding exceeding 10% as of September 22 [7]. - The company has expressed a commitment to continue seeking investment opportunities in Japanese enterprises, viewing this as a strategic shift away from Chinese stocks [5][6]. - The positive market reaction to Berkshire's investment in Mitsui & Co. was evident, with the stock price rising to a new high since July 2024 following the announcement [7].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have been on an upward trend, reaching historical highs, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of September 22, the spot price of London gold reached a historical high of $3726.70 per ounce, marking a significant increase from the opening price of $3447.50 per ounce on September 1, representing an almost 8% rise within the month [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 40%, reflecting strong demand and market dynamics [1]. Group 2: Impact of Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% has led to initial volatility in gold prices, with a brief retreat following the announcement [2]. - Despite the initial drop, gold prices rebounded due to continued expectations of further rate cuts and heightened geopolitical risks, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings as a hedge against potential risks [2][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking by investors, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by ongoing monetary easing expectations and geopolitical uncertainties [4]. - Central banks continue to maintain a net buying stance on gold, with a reported net increase of 10 tons in global official gold reserves as of July 2025, indicating sustained institutional demand [4].

Core Points - Gold prices have reached a new high, with spot gold surpassing $3720 per ounce, peaking at $3728.4 per ounce on September 22 [2][3] - Silver prices have also increased, reaching nearly $43.8 per ounce, marking a 14-year high [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, contributing to the bullish trend in gold prices [5] Market Dynamics - Investor demand has overtaken central bank purchases as the main driver of gold price increases, with projections suggesting an average spot gold price of $3800 per ounce by Q4 2025 and a potential breach of $4000 per ounce in Q1 2026 [6] - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs have raised their long-term gold price forecasts, with expectations of $3300 per ounce beyond 2029 and maintaining a target of $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 [6] - The global physical demand for gold remains strong, particularly in emerging markets, as indicated by rising premiums in India despite record prices [5] Brand Gold Prices - As of September 22, 2025, various brands have reported the following gold prices: - Chow Tai Fook: 1085 CNY per gram - Chow Sang Sang: 1090 CNY per gram - Other brands like Liufeng Jewelry and Gold Supreme are also priced around 1085 CNY per gram [7]

金价，持续上涨！ 9月22日，金价再度大涨，现货黄金站上3720美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨幅超过1%。自8月20日 启动新一轮行情以来，现货黄金累计涨幅超过12%。而自今年年初以来，金价涨幅更是超过42%。 今日美股盘前，黄金概念股集体上涨，伊格尔矿业、巴里克黄金、哈莫尼黄金涨超3%，纽蒙特矿业、 金罗斯黄金涨超2.5%，盎格鲁黄金涨近2%。 近日，摩根大通上调了对金价的价格预测，该行预计现货金价将在2025年第四季度达到3800美元/盎 司，并在2026年第一季度突破4000美元/盎司大关。同时，若美联储独立性受到冲击，投资者的资金轮 动可能在两个季度内将金价推至5000美元/盎司的高位。摩根大通的报告分析了过去六次美联储降息周 期，发现黄金价格在降息开始前和开始后都表现出持续的上涨。在最近的四次降息周期中，黄金在降息 开始后的9个月内均实现了两位数的累计回报。 瑞银也提高了黄金的目标价。瑞银预计，到2025年底金价将达到每盎司3800美元，高于此前预测的每盎 司3500美元。到2026年中，金价可能在每盎司3900美元左右，此前预测为每盎司3700美元。瑞银表示， 由于就业数据疲软，市场对美联储将重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged significantly, breaking through key thresholds and showing a year-to-date increase of over 41% [1][2]. Gold Price Surge - In September, international gold prices rose rapidly, surpassing $3,500, $3,600, and $3,700 within half a month [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with notable brands reporting price hikes, such as Chow Sang Sang at 1,090 RMB per gram, up 65 RMB from the beginning of the month [1]. Macro Economic Factors - The expectation of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut has contributed to the gold price increase, with the federal funds rate target range lowered by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [2]. - The decrease in interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, enhancing its attractiveness [2]. Central Bank Purchases - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been significant buyers of gold, with a reported increase of 166 tons in Q2 2023 [2]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, currently holding approximately 7,402 million ounces (over 2,000 tons) [2]. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine situation, have heightened investor risk aversion, further driving up gold prices [3]. Related Gold Assets Performance - The A-share gold sector saw an 8.28% increase in the first half of September, with individual stocks like Western Gold rising over 50% [4]. - Gold-themed financial products have gained popularity, with 47 such products currently in the market, and several new products launched since July [4]. Financial Products and Early Profit-Taking - Some gold-linked financial products have experienced early profit-taking due to reaching predetermined conditions, such as the 招银理财 product achieving a target yield of 3.50% [5]. - The trend of early profit-taking has become a popular topic on social media [5]. Gold ETF Growth - The total market size of gold ETFs has surpassed 160 billion RMB, with many ETFs experiencing significant net asset growth [6]. - Companies like Shandong Gold have announced share placements to raise funds, reflecting a trend of financing in the gold mining sector due to favorable market conditions [6]. Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious in the current high gold price environment, as geopolitical uncertainties and the potential for market volatility may impact future performance [7][8]. - It is suggested that households consider a gold allocation of approximately 5% to 10% of their investment portfolio [8].