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中辉有色观点-20250616
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 02:29
| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | | 以色列空袭伊朗事件升级发酵,主推避险情况,尽管美国数据积极,关税谈判 | | 黄金 强势走高 | 进入关键时期,短期不确定性仍然较多,关注中东问题的严峻程度。长期全球 | | | 尚在秩序重塑途中,黄金战略配置价值高。【790-815】 | | | 白银跟随黄金避险情绪,市场表现上涨,金银比价方面,目前回归正常区间, | | 白银 高位震荡 | 目前白银基本面变化不大,短期白银将交易黄金和基本金属跟随特性,关注 | | | 8700,如果撑不住或再次回到前期区间。【8700-9000】 | | | 中美会谈结束并没有实质性大利好,国内宏观窗口期,中东地缘风险激增,市场对 | | 铜 区间震荡 | 全球经济下行担忧增加,市场避险情绪回升,铜短期反弹,但整体或仍旧承压,重 | | | 新回到震荡区间。中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77800,78800】 | | | 海外地缘风险激增,美联储议息会议临近,市场避险情绪上升,锌止跌反弹, | | 锌 反弹 | 成本支撑下深跌空间或有限,但整体依旧偏弱,短期建议暂时观望,长期看, | ...
巨富金业:关税传导影响通胀,黄金受美联储加息预期压制
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-16 02:27
一、现货黄金基本面: ①地缘政治风险持续升温 中东局势因沙特与法国推动巴勒斯坦建国会议而复杂化,以色列与伊朗的核威慑对峙进一步加剧区域紧张。同时,俄乌冲突升级,俄罗斯对乌克兰发动大规 模无人机袭击,波兰紧急部署战机应对边境威胁,东欧地缘风险显著上升。地缘不确定性直接推升避险需求,伦敦金现价格近期维持在3360.00美元/盎司以 上高位震荡,反映市场对冲突升级的担忧。 ②美国通胀与货币政策预期博弈 尽管美国5月CPI同比2.4%符合预期,核心CPI环比0.1%低于市场预测,但关税传导效应已开始显现,服装、家具等进口商品价格因特朗普政府关税政策出现 上涨,可能延缓通胀回落进程。美联储6月维持利率不变,但暗示下半年可能加息,市场对9月降息的预期降温至50%以下,美元指数在CPI数据公布后短暂 下滑至98.87,为黄金提供短期反弹动力。不过,消费者通胀预期回落(一年期通胀预期从3.6%降至3.2%)缓解了部分政策压力,黄金短期走势需关注6月 CPI数据对美联储政策路径的指引。 ③央行购金与去美元化趋势强化 综合来看,当前黄金基本面呈现"地缘风险主导、政策预期分化、央行购金托底"的格局。中东与俄乌冲突的持续发酵、美国通 ...
地缘政治风险加剧,能源化工与黑色系板块领涨
周内(6月9日至6月13日),国内大宗商品期货涨跌不一,国际地缘政治风险加剧,能源化工与黑色系 板块领涨。 就国内期货市场具体来看,能源化工板块,燃油周上涨1.48%、原油上涨6.64%、碳酸锂下跌1.38%;黑 色系板块,焦炭周上涨0.52%、焦煤上涨1.81%、铁矿石上涨0.28%;基本金属板块,沪锡周上涨 0.51%、沪金上涨0.64%、沪铅下跌0.18%;农产品板块,生猪周上涨0.99%、棕榈油上涨3.49%;航运板 块,集运欧线周上涨2.76%。 交易行情热点 热点一:以伊冲突推高油价,警惕供应风险 随着以伊冲突持续爆发,原油价格出现大幅溢价。布伦特原油本周上涨7.58%,收73.63美元/桶;美原 油上涨7.34%,收71.53美元/桶。 从供应端来看,2024年伊朗石油产量全球占比约3.2%,若冲突影响伊朗产量,将对中国沙特等国家造 成一定供应冲击,近年来美国页岩油产量增速的提升能部分填补缺口,但远期合约价格仍将推高。 根据摩根大通首席大宗商品策略师最新发布的研报,当前油价已至少部分反映了地缘政治风险溢价—— 目前原油价格略高于70美元。这意味着市场已对"最坏情境"给出了7%的概率定价,该情境下 ...
综合晨报:中东地缘冲突风险上升,5月国内金融数据多数不及预期-20250616
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 01:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains high, and the uncertainty of the situation between Iran and Israel continues, which has a significant impact on the financial and commodity markets [1][12][13]. - The majority of financial data in May fell short of expectations, with corporate debt gradually becoming short - term, and the willingness of residents to actively increase debt remaining low. There is a need to observe the sustainability of the rebound in M1 growth rate [2][23][24]. - The A - share market is affected by external geopolitical risks, and the pressure on the molecular end of stock market pricing is still large. The next stage requires observation of domestic policy changes [3][27]. - The new bio - fuel policy in the United States will significantly tighten the balance sheet of US soybean oil and increase the demand for US soybean crushing, which will have a chain reaction on the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [4][31][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump hopes that Iran and Israel can reach an agreement, and the 6 - month consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan has rebounded, with inflation expectations significantly falling. However, due to the impact of oil prices, US inflation still faces upward risks. Gold prices are driven by the military conflict between Israel and Iran, and the short - term market continues to focus on the situation in the Middle East [12][13]. - Investment advice: The short - term trend of gold prices is dominated by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, with increased volatility, so attention should be paid to risks [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The "Brigade of the Righteous" in Iraq warns that if the US intervenes in the conflict between Israel and Iran, it will attack US interests in the region. Trump claims that Iran and Israel "will reach an agreement" to suspend the conflict. The geopolitical risk remains high, and the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15][17][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The consumer confidence index in June increased, and inflation expectations decreased. However, the intensification of the Middle East conflict may lead to concerns about re - inflation. If the oil price rises to $100 per barrel, the CPI in June may rebound to around 3%, increasing the difficulty of the Fed's decision - making. US stocks still face the risk of correction before the situation improves [20][21][22]. - Investment advice: Geopolitical risks increase inflation risks, and US stocks still have a risk of correction before the situation improves [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The financial data in May fell short of expectations. The fundamentals are still favorable for the bond market, and the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. However, short - term bonds will fluctuate in the near term, and it is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [23][24][25]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips. Pay appropriate attention to T when going long on the long - end [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market is affected by external geopolitical risks, and the pressure on the molecular end of stock market pricing is still large. The next stage requires observation of domestic policy changes [3][27]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock index futures evenly to cope with the rotational pattern [27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US EPA proposed to increase the bio - fuel blending volume from 2026 to 2027, which will significantly tighten the balance sheet of US soybean oil and increase the demand for US soybean crushing. It will have a chain reaction on the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [4][31][32]. - Investment advice: US soybean oil still has room to rise, and palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil will follow suit, but the increase in rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak [32]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net profit of Cristal Union in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 62%. The supply in Europe is sufficient, and the import from Ukraine is large, resulting in low sugar prices. The expected decline in Brazilian sugar cane production in 2025 increases the uncertainty of Brazilian sugar production [33][35]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar may rebound in the short term, but the overall weak pattern is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar, the quotation of processed sugar, and the performance of the external market [36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The inventory of port cotton continues to decline, and the USDA June report has a slightly positive impact on the cotton market, but the overall supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose. The downstream textile industry is in a off - season, which drags down cotton prices [37][39][40]. - Investment advice: The cotton market may fluctuate repeatedly. A cautious and slightly optimistic view is held on the future market, and attention should be paid to macro - cotton dynamics and downstream demand changes [41]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The five major varieties continue to de - stock slightly, but there is a differentiation among varieties. The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil shows a downward trend, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [42][44]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to adopt a rebound hedging strategy for the spot end [45]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The expected increase in the US bio - fuel blending standard will drive up the price of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal futures. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase, and the spot basis will continue to be under pressure [46][48]. - Investment advice: The prices of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, and the spot basis of soybean meal will remain weak [48]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spread between cassava starch and corn starch has narrowed. The supply - demand situation of corn starch may be gradually improving, and the spread between cassava starch and corn starch may temporarily stabilize [49]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to the complex influencing factors of the CS - C spread [50]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of wheat has fluctuated, and the substitution advantage of wheat has slightly increased. The spot price of corn is expected to rise first and then fall, and the basis is expected to strengthen [50][51]. - Investment advice: For the 07 contract, speculative long positions are recommended to take profits opportunely. For the 09 contract, shorting is not recommended, and it is expected to fluctuate with a first - strong - then - weak trend. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of shorting the 11 and 01 contracts at high prices [51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory is 312.9 million tons, and large - scale discount transactions are gradually emerging. The market is oscillating weakly [52]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [53]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is oscillating weakly at a low level. The cancellation of the price limit of downstream stainless steel has released market pessimism. The supply of nickel ore and nickel iron is in excess, and the medium - term price of nickel is expected to decline [54][55]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is possible to sell put options on dips. In the medium term, attention can be paid to the strategy of shorting at high prices in Q3 [55]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The LME warehouse in Hong Kong is expected to receive the first batch of copper next week. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical war may suppress copper prices through the impact on the US dollar index. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price is difficult to decline trend - wise [56][59][60]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, it is recommended to wait and see as copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. For arbitrage, wait for the opportunity of positive inter - period arbitrage of Shanghai copper [60]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - After the rebound, the downstream's willingness to take delivery is insufficient, and the basis of the spot market is weakening. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve, and the market may oscillate weakly [61][62]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current level. Existing short positions can be held, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [62]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Anhui Huasheng's polysilicon wafer technical transformation and expansion project has been accepted for environmental assessment. The spot trading volume is low, and the price of some products is declining. The supply in June is expected to be 960,000 tons, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The decision of leading enterprises on production reduction will have a major impact on the market [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: Before the leading enterprises reduce production, the market is bearish. A strategy of short - term shorting and long - term going long is recommended, and attention should be paid to the position management [65]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in major producing areas has increased. The supply in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to increase. The demand is still weak, and the spot price is difficult to rebound significantly [66][67]. - Investment advice: The futures market has rebounded. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short lightly after the rebound. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [67]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The silver pricing coefficient of lead concentrates in June has not changed. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be weak until July. The short - term rise of lead prices is temporary, and the medium - term demand may increase marginally [68][69][70]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips, paying attention to the pressure around 17,000 yuan. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see for both inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc oxide enterprises are facing environmental inspections, resulting in production cuts. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium term. The inventory is at an inflection point, and the price is expected to decline [71][72]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, look for opportunities to short at high prices and increase positions appropriately on rebounds. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see for the inter - period spread, and maintain the strategy of positive internal - external arbitrage in the medium term [72]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has risen slightly, affected by the geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the shutdown of a French nuclear power plant. The short - term market needs to pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [73][74]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [74]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Israel has attacked Iranian energy infrastructure, and the US oil rig count has decreased. The risk of supply in the Middle East has increased, and oil prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [75][76][77]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term as the market has not fully priced in the geopolitical conflict risk [77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has risen, but the demand is in a seasonal off - season, and the supply is expected to increase. The short - term rise is mainly due to the impact of crude oil prices. It is not recommended to chase long positions directly, and short positions can be established after the geopolitical situation eases [78][79][80]. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to chase long positions directly in the short term, and short positions can be established after the geopolitical situation eases [80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories have increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. However, the industry is under supply pressure, and the processing fee is under pressure. Some large factories have plans to reduce production [81][82]. - Investment advice: The processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is possible to establish long positions for expanding the bottle - chip processing fee at low valuations [82]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The trading of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has remained stable. The supply is relatively stable, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The demand is affected by the inventory of alumina and the wait - and - see attitude of non - aluminum downstream and traders [83]. - Investment advice: The 09 contract of caustic soda is affected by the overall weakness of commodities, but the large discount of the 09 contract will limit the downward space [84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp has continued to decline, and the demand from downstream paper mills is weak [84]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of pulp have changed little, and the market is expected to oscillate [86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has risen, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market trading is average [87]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of PVC have changed little, and the market is expected to oscillate [87]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the South China market is general, and the supply is expected to remain high in the short term. The demand from photovoltaic glass is expected to decline, and the market is bearish [88][89]. - Investment advice: In the medium - term expansion cycle, the strategy of shorting soda ash at high prices is still maintained [89]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The spot price of float glass has continued to decline, and the market demand is weak. With the arrival of the high - temperature and rainy season, the demand will decline seasonally, and the supply - demand imbalance will intensify [90][91]. - Investment advice: Before the inventory of original - sheet manufacturers is substantially reduced, the spot price of float glass still has room for downward adjustment. The short - term market may be affected by the overall risk preference, and the rebound driven by short - covering is difficult to sustain [91].
【UNFX课堂】央妈按兵?中东点烽!全球市场屏息迎双风暴
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-16 00:46
但真正的看点在于会后的沟通。政策声明措辞微调、鲍威尔表态、以及最受瞩目的利率点阵图,都将被 逐字逐句解读。 市场将以此判断美联储对通胀、就业和经济前景的最新评估,以及对未来降息时机和幅度的预期。 美联储的决议是市场关注的重中之重。 | 市场普遍预期本次会议将维持利率不变,这几乎板上钉钉。 当前,美国经济数据信号矛盾:通胀虽有粘性但核心指标持平,劳动力市场似在软化。这种"滞 胀"与"衰退"担忧并存,加上潜在的贸易政策不确定性,使美联储路径异常复杂。 点阵图是否会下调年内降息次数预期? 这将直接影响市场对下半年宽松程度的定价。 本周,全球金融市场正迎来一场由货币政策决议与地缘政治风险交织而成的复杂考验。 | 即将登场 的"超级央行周",以美联储和日本央行为首,将为市场提供关于未来利率路径的关键线索。 然而,中东地区不断升级的紧张局势,犹如一团难以预测的乌云,为本已充满不确定性的经济前景再添 变数。 这可能导致市场推迟下一次加息预期,无疑对日元构成持续贬值压力。日元走势不仅影响日本经济,也 对全球套利交易和资产配置至关重要。 然而,本周最大变数或非来自央行! 中东才是焦点。以色列与伊朗冲突升级,迅速点燃避险情绪—— ...
中东风险加剧,原油黄金走强:申万期货早间评论-20250616
申银万国期货研究· 2025-06-16 00:34
首席点 评 : 中东风险加剧,原油黄金走强 伊朗发动大规模导弹袭击报复,周末同以色列持续互袭,袭击了包括以总理家庭住所在内目标,伊朗官 员称严肃考虑是否封锁霍尔木兹海峡;以色列袭击伊朗最大天然气田,冲突扩大至油气设施,以军称空 袭伊朗国防部总部、核计划总部及多处石油设施。以总理:如伊朗接受美国要求放弃核计划,以色列愿 停止行动。 WTI 7 月原油期货涨 7.26% ,全周累涨约 13% 。布伦特 6 月原油期货涨约 7% ,全周累涨 近 11.7% 。 COMEX 8 月黄金期货涨 1.48% ,全周累涨约 3.2% 。中国 5 月社融增量 2.29 万亿元,新增 人民币贷款 6200 亿元, M2-M1 剪刀差缩小。国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议,部署中国 (上海)自由贸易试验区试点措施复制推广工作。世界贸易组织 13 日在瑞士日内瓦召开服务贸易理事 会年度第二次会议。中方指出美国"对等关税"误导性叙事和错误逻辑,要求美方切实遵守世贸组织规 则,通过多边合作而非单边措施解决分歧,与各方共同维护全球贸易体系的稳定。 重点品种: 原油、黄金、股指 原油: SC 周五夜盘上涨 6.64% 。周五以色列轰炸 ...
中东风险加剧,原油黄金走强:申万期货早间评论-20250616
首席点 评 : 中东风险加剧,原油黄金走强 伊朗发动大规模导弹袭击报复,周末同以色列持续互袭,袭击了包括以总理家庭住所在内目标,伊朗官 员称严肃考虑是否封锁霍尔木兹海峡;以色列袭击伊朗最大天然气田,冲突扩大至油气设施,以军称空 袭伊朗国防部总部、核计划总部及多处石油设施。以总理:如伊朗接受美国要求放弃核计划,以色列愿 停止行动。 WTI 7 月原油期货涨 7.26% ,全周累涨约 13% 。布伦特 6 月原油期货涨约 7% ,全周累涨 近 11.7% 。 COMEX 8 月黄金期货涨 1.48% ,全周累涨约 3.2% 。中国 5 月社融增量 2.29 万亿元,新增 人民币贷款 6200 亿元, M2-M1 剪刀差缩小。国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议,部署中国 (上海)自由贸易试验区试点措施复制推广工作。世界贸易组织 13 日在瑞士日内瓦召开服务贸易理事 会年度第二次会议。中方指出美国"对等关税"误导性叙事和错误逻辑,要求美方切实遵守世贸组织规 则,通过多边合作而非单边措施解决分歧,与各方共同维护全球贸易体系的稳定。 重点品种: 原油、黄金、股指 伊朗和以色列互相发起新一轮军事打击。当地时间 6 月 1 ...
以伊冲突扩大至能源设施、美国“或参战”,油价开盘继续大涨、黄金走高、美股期货下挫
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-16 00:26
Group 1 - The Middle East situation is escalating, igniting a global risk aversion wave, with crude oil futures surging and U.S. stock index futures opening lower [1] - Israeli airstrikes targeted two oil refineries in Iran's Bushehr province, marking a significant escalation in the conflict [1] - WTI crude oil futures opened with a 6% surge, while Brent crude oil futures rose approximately 5%, continuing a remarkable 7.3% increase from the previous Friday [1][2] Group 2 - The current price of Brent crude oil CFD is $75.29, reflecting a gain of 1.43%, while WTI crude oil is priced at $72.42, up by 1.59% [2] - U.S. stock futures are all opening lower, with Dow futures down 0.3% and both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures declining by 0.2% [2] - Gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, currently up about 0.3%, trading around $3,450 per ounce, just $50 shy of the historical high set in April [3] Group 3 - The conflict between Israel and Iran has expanded to energy facilities, with the recent attacks being the first direct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure since the 1980s [6] - Analysts warn that this could be the most severe attack on oil and gas infrastructure since the 2019 Abqaiq attack, which temporarily shut down half of Saudi Arabia's oil production [6] - Concerns are rising over the potential escalation of conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for one-third of global oil transport, which could lead to catastrophic impacts on global energy supply [6]
港股概念追踪 | 中东地缘风险升级 国际油价狂飙 后市油价如何表现?(附概念股)
智通财经网· 2025-06-15 23:43
智通财经APP获悉,以伊冲突爆发在全球市场引发巨震。当地时间6月13日,以色列对伊朗数十个核设 施和军事目标发动空袭,中东地缘政治紧张局势再次加剧,同时伊朗宣布不再参加与美国的核谈判。6 月13日纽约WTI原油一度暴涨超14%后回落,黄金等避险资产明显拉升,全球股市集体下挫。截至收 盘,原油价格收涨超7.5%,报价73.18美元/桶,创2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅。而美国油气ETF(USO) 大涨6.89%,创下5个月以来新高。 摩根大通认为,一旦中东爆发更大规模的冲突,导致霍尔木兹海峡被封锁,那么伊朗每天210万桶的出 口将受到影响,原油市场可能会面临严重的供应混乱。摩根大通首席大宗商品分析师Natasha Kaneva表 示,如果冲突继续扩大,那么油价的反应将会出现指数级增长,即飙升到120-130美元/桶的价格水平。 6月13日,以色列和伊朗的冲突进一步恶化。以军除了攻击伊朗的核设施及军事设施外,还开始轰炸伊 朗的石油设施,并宣称暗杀了更多伊朗军方高官和科学家。伊朗一天之内向以色列发射超过200枚导 弹,伊军方还说"战争规模将会在未来几天内持续扩大",正在计划对中东地区的美军基地开展打击。 据《中国石 ...
地缘政治风险加剧 交易员涌入期权市场避险
智通财经网· 2025-06-15 23:37
以下是交易员为应对市场的不确定性而采取的一些策略: 石油 智通财经APP获悉,以色列对伊朗发动空袭以及伊朗随后进行报复于上周五在全球市场上引发了波澜,促使交易员纷纷涌入期权市场寻求保护,因为外界仍 在持续关注这场冲突是否会持续很长时间。 能源经纪公司PVM的分析师Tamas Varga表示:"以色列和伊朗之间冲突的升级,包括对核设施和军事目标的打击,标志着中东地缘政治格局的一个转折点, 其连锁反应已经开始在全球市场显现。霍尔木兹海峡——每天有2000万桶石油经过——如今正处于地缘政治的刀刃之上。" 在以色列袭击伊朗之前的几天里,随着紧张局势加剧,一些分析人士曾猜测,一旦爆发冲突,油价可能会飙升至每桶100美元以上。因此,交易员们抢购看 涨期权。这一趋势在以色列上周五对伊朗发动空袭后达到了峰值。 布伦特原油和WTI原油期货价格一度飙升14%,隐含波动率猛增。对看涨期权的恐慌性买盘将看涨期权的溢价推高至自2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来从未见过的 水平。伊朗的报复性打击更进一步推高了买盘。 瑞穗证券美国能源期货部门主管Robert Yawger表示:"投机者的应对方式是毫不犹豫地抢购屏幕上可见的所有看涨期权,根本不在乎 ...