法微信公: 产业链期现日报 | 同产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月21日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 78660 | 78020 | +640.00 | 0.82% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 175 | 105 | +70.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78490 | 77965 | +525.00 | 0.67% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 45 | ୧୧ | -20.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78505 | 77920 | +585.00 | 0.75% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 20 | 5 | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | વેરૂટ | ୧ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to be characterized by strong supply and weak demand this week, with prices expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Traders are advised to pay attention to macro and policy impacts, operate cautiously, and control positions to manage potential volatility risks [10]. - Given the current fundamental pressure and unclear policies, traders are advised to stay on the sidelines and be wary of the risk of chasing high prices [38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 ranged between 1247 - 1202 yuan/ton, showing low - level fluctuations. As of the afternoon close on July 18, 2025, the contract fell 1 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of - 0.18%, closing at 1216 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - As of July 17, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 73.32 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.42 million tons, or 3.42%. Light soda ash production was 31.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.97 million tons, and heavy soda ash production was 41.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 million tons. The increase was due to the resumption of enterprise maintenance [7][11]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.10%, compared with 81.32% last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.78%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 87.70%, a week - on - week increase of 5.13%, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 73.93%, a week - on - week increase of 3.60% [15]. - **Inventory** - As of July 17, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 190.56 million tons, an increase of 2.16 million tons from Monday, or 1.15%. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 4.22 million tons, or 2.26%. The inventory was 100.61 million tons more than the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 111.85% [8][19]. - **Demand Side** - The shipment volume and shipment rate of soda ash increased. Last week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 69.10 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.48%; the overall shipment rate was 94.24%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 percentage points [9][37]. - The daily output of the float glass industry decreased by 0.38% compared to the 10th. The weekly output from July 11 - 17, 2025, was 110.72 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14% [25]. - As of July 17, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 billion weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.163 billion weight boxes, or 3.22%, and a year - on - year increase of 0.29%. The inventory days were 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day from the previous period [29]. - **Spot Market Price** - The prices of most soda ash products in various regions remained stable, with only a few products having price changes. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie动力煤 increased by 2.25%, the price of Northeast light soda ash decreased by 3.70%, and the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased by 4.26% [37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The supply side shows continuous increases in production and capacity utilization, with individual devices increasing production. The supply is adjusted at a high level. The demand side shows stable downstream demand, with an increase in shipment volume and rate. However, the demand is relatively weak, and the industry faces significant over - capacity pressure [9][37][38]. - The market is currently focused on the 'anti - involution' policy expectations. Although the market sentiment was boosted by the news of the upcoming policy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the actual impact remains to be seen as the specific policy details are not yet available [38].

周一（7月21日）亚市盘中，白银期货维持震荡偏多，最新沪银主力价格报9272元/千克，涨幅0.94%， 对美债增长的担忧和关税的进一步消息可能会让白银继续受到关注，目前看来，银价得到了很好的底部 支撑。 【要闻速递】 在关税方面，印尼仍在制定与美国新贸易协议的细节，而美国财政部长贝森特则告诉日本首相有可能达 成"良好协议"。 报道援引不具名消息人士称，特朗普对欧盟要求降低汽车关税的最新提议无动于衷，并将按计划维持 25%的汽车关税。 【技术分析】 当前贵金属策略上建议维持多头思路，沪银主力合约参考运行区间9095-10000元/千克。工信部称汽 车、钢铁、有色、石化等重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台，银价跟随有色金属价格小幅走高。沪银溢 价维持至350元/千克左右关注。降息预期依旧高涨，银价支撑仍存。沪银主力合约参考运行区间9095- 10000元/千克，上方阻力关注9300-9400，下方支撑看8900-9000。 本周，美国对印尼征收的威胁性关税税率从32%降至19%后，印尼仍在就最近与美国达成的贸易协议的 细节进行谈判，并正在寻求对其出口的棕榈油和镍给予豁免。印尼经济官员称，印尼已要求美国对其出 口的可可 ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 情绪向好供需转暖，盘面或将震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14225-14980 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡上行，总体涨幅较大。 截至 2025 年 7 月 18 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14810 元/吨，当周上涨 450 点，涨幅 3.13%。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 21 日星期一 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡上行，涨幅较大。 展望后市，从宏观面来看，上周公布数据显示美国 6 月 CPI 同比上涨，6 月 PPI 环比持平，初请失业金人数连续第五周下降， 提升市场对美联储 9 月降息预期；国内上半年 GDP 同比增长 5.3%。从基本面来看，供给方面，近期主产区受天气扰动原料 供应短缺支撑胶 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,356 to $3,361 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.22% to 0.10% [1][2] - Recent economic data, including strong retail sales (+0.6%) and unemployment claims (221,000), have created a tug-of-war in the gold market, balancing short-term economic strength against long-term inflation concerns [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has advised against attempting to dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman, indicating potential for two interest rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials are divided on interest rate policy, with some advocating for a rate cut while others emphasize the importance of maintaining a restrictive stance [2] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including consumer confidence and inflation expectations, which will influence gold prices [2] - Despite a recent decline in the dollar, expectations for delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are limiting further declines in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Gold ETF funds have seen a recent increase of 0.37%, with significant net inflows of 131 million yuan over the past four days [3] - The performance of gold prices is expected to stabilize as U.S. debt pressures ease, with traditional frameworks of real interest rates driving gold price fluctuations [4] - Recent economic indicators, such as the June CPI data and manufacturing indices, suggest resilience in the U.S. economy, which may limit upward trends in gold prices [4] Group 4 - Gold ETFs and related funds offer low-cost, diversified investment options, allowing for T+0 trading and serving as a hedge against economic downturns [5]

2025.07.21-07.25 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周短期避险情绪推动价格上涨、美元指数反弹和COMEX黄金期货下跌 对价格形成压制叠加市场对美联储降息的预期增强，为黄金价格提供支 撑；另外，成交量和持仓量的变化反映出市场参与者在多空之间的博弈。 短期来看，黄金价格受美元指数反弹和美国经济数据强劲压制，但地缘 政治风险和避险需求提供了支撑。中期来看，黄金仍将维持震荡格局， 需密切关注美联储政策动向和美元走势。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行，建议：760—782区间进行网格 交易。 精选指标情况 [图片] 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 n 本周策略建议 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行，建议：760—785区间进行网格 交易。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城 ...

摘要今日周一（7月21日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3358.42美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报 3355.30美元/盎司，上涨0.18%，最高触及3358.42美元/盎司，最低下探3344.72美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周一（7月21日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3358.42美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报3355.30美 元/盎司，上涨0.18%，最高触及3358.42美元/盎司，最低下探3344.72美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 关键技术位： 阻力位：3360/3380/3400 支撑位：3330/3300/3280 美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周四表示，鉴于经济风险加剧，他仍认为央行应在7月会议上降息。分析师 预计美联储本月将维持利率不变，按兵不动的概率为94%，降息25个基点的概率为6%。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 美元指数维持反弹态势，对金价上行形成阶段性压制。基本面来看，市场风险偏好显著回暖，削弱避险 买盘动能，叠加短期波动率持续萎缩，行情进入方向抉择关键期。技术面维持震荡偏多结构，若守稳箱 体底部支撑（3330）；反之需警惕破位风险。 ...

电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 大区间震荡，预计8月整体震荡偏强运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2025.7.21-7.25 国内三季度电解铝新增产能为全年最低阶段，8月是下游淡旺季转换的窗口期， 在中美关税战阶段缓和的背景下，出口保持韧性，另外随着国内反内卷及稳 增长政策落地，8月供需仍以偏乐观对待。 2 低位多单中线持有。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 未来一周沪铝2509区间看20200-20900。临近区间低位可以 适当布局多单。 n 本周策略建议 沪铝2509合约看20500-21100区间震荡。临近区间低位可以 适当布局多单。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 可考虑适量逢低配置期货虚拟库存。 【总体观点】 | | 2025年7月第3周 | | --- | --- | | | 8月开始，中国自几内亚进口的铝土矿预计有所减少。整体上，下半年国内铝土矿进口量预计较上半年 下降，铝土矿月度平衡存在转向缺口的风险。但考虑到部分企业为应对雨季提前备库，短期内铝土矿 | | 铝土矿市场 | 供需矛盾预计并不明显，三季度铝土矿价格预计持稳为主。但若发运持续低位，国内铝土矿持续去库， | ...

铝周报 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 7 月 21 日 消息主导 铝价偏强运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 王工建 一、交易数据 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 上周美国CPI数据略有上行，但核心通胀水平依然温 和，市场对美联储降息预期谨慎，但仍保留了两次降 息预期次数。其后美国首申及零售数据保持韧性，令 美指周内连续反弹。国内工信部周末称对有色、钢铁 等重要十大行业优化产业结构，淘汰落后产能。基本 面，供应端贵州电解铝产能继续复产， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - policy expectations are strong, and the short - term sentiment is warm. Although the steel fundamentals are in a weak pattern with poor off - season demand and average trade transactions, it is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile and upward trend [1][6]. - The industry data last week was average, with weak supply and demand in the steel market. The supply and demand of rebar both decreased significantly, and inventory accumulation started last week. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils were stable with little change [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3147 | 9 | 0.29 | 8063884 | 3107454 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3310 | 34 | 1.04 | 2822204 | 1610257 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 785.0 | 18.5 | 2.41 | 1917710 | 703244 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 926.0 | 6.0 | 0.65 | 6863004 | 850792 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1518.0 | - 7.0 | - 0.46 | 144894 | 54981 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile and upward trend. The real - estate investment in the first half of the year remained weak, and the infrastructure investment decreased month - on - month. The terminal demand pressure remained high, but the market was affected by sentiment and showed an upward trend. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3000 (+40) Yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3250 (+30) Yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3340 (+40) Yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Multiple departments over the weekend called for "anti - involution". The China Iron and Steel Association required to control production capacity and prevent over - capacity risks; relevant departments regulated the new - energy vehicle industry competition order; the National Development and Reform Commission aimed to prevent inefficient and repeated construction in the low - altitude industry [7]. - On the morning of July 19, the construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion Yuan [1][5][7]. - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 46658 billion Yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area of real - estate development enterprises all decreased [1][5][7]. - In the first half of the year, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 248654 billion Yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The investment in some industries such as power and water supply increased significantly [5][7]. - The China Iron and Steel Association said that relevant departments would crack down on tax evasion in steel exports, and the annual steel export volume is expected to be between 7000 and 8000 million tons [7]. - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized that urban development has entered the stage of "stock quality improvement and efficiency increase" [5][7]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, spreads, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and apparent consumption, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][27][28][29][31][33][34][36][38][39]