证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 12 年 月 日 投资策略 财报过后，供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 一、策略专题：供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 4 月 30 日，A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报披露完毕，我们结合最新数据 对供给出清、出口链与高股息行业进行再梳理。 1.3 高股息：交运与消费部分行业股息率有明显抬升 我们结合各行业 2025 年现金分红情况与最新的 PE（ TTM）对预期股息率 进行测算，高股息重点行业包括煤炭开采、油气开采、炼化与贸易、航运 港口、白色家电等。值得提示的是，今年交运与消费部分行业股息率相对 上年有明显抬升，包括航运港口、物流、白色家电、装修建材等。 二、策略观点：变盘仍未结束，静待方向明确 大势研判：本周 A 股市场继续凸显韧性，ETF 保持净流出态势反映护盘资 金入场力度减少，而 A 股仍然稳中有升，同时成交量能保持在万亿以上。 此前我们指出，受海内外因素影响，市场处于变盘点，需要密切关注风格 是否出现切换：特朗普对华态度出现缓和、4 月政治局会议落地、A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报将完整披露。而目前来看，我们 ...

Core Insights - The China Central Enterprise Innovation Driven Index (000861) has shown a strong increase of 1.37% as of May 12, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Ruike Laser (300747) up 11.37% and Guorui Technology (600562) up 9.99% [3] - The Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF (515900) has also risen by 1.34%, with a latest price of 1.44 yuan, and has a trading volume of 562.87 million yuan [3] - The ETF's scale has reached 3.3 billion yuan, ranking it in the top quarter among comparable funds [3] Performance Metrics - As of May 9, 2025, the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF has achieved a net value increase of 24.83% over the past three years, ranking 312 out of 1747 in equity funds, placing it in the top 17.86% [4] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 15.05% since inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being five months and a total gain of 24.91% [4] - The average return for the months with gains is 4.08%, and the annual profit percentage stands at 80.00%, with a historical three-year holding profit probability of 97.34% [4] Risk and Fee Structure - The management fee for the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4] - The tracking error over the past five years is 0.038%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4] Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven Index include Hikvision (002415), State Grid NARI (600406), and China Telecom (601728), collectively accounting for 34.48% of the index [5][6] - The individual weights of the top stocks range from 5.08% for Hikvision to 2.60% for China Railway (601390) [8]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology HKETF (513890) opened up over 2% on May 12, 2025, with a turnover of 5.66% and a transaction value of 23.15 million yuan, while the Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTECH) rose by 1.26% [1] - Key stocks such as Sunny Optical Technology (02382) increased by 4.66%, BYD Electronics (00285) by 4.65%, and NIO-SW (09866) by 4.58%, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced the launch of the "Tech Company Fast Track" on May 6, aimed at facilitating the listing of specialized technology and biotech companies, which is expected to encourage more companies to list in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities expressed optimism about AI technology and domestic consumption, suggesting a focus on high-dividend stocks for defensive positioning due to ongoing overseas risks [2] - The report highlighted that the overall overseas risks remain, and a potential decline in US tech stocks could impact Hong Kong stocks, while a dividend payout wave is anticipated in the second quarter [2] - The political bureau meeting at the end of April emphasized the need to expand consumption and enhance its role in economic growth, reinforcing the focus on domestic consumption as a key theme for the year [2] Group 3 - Morgan Asset Management is integrating its "Global Vision Investment Technology" product line to help investors capitalize on quality tech companies globally, driven by the AI wave [3] - The actively managed funds focus on emerging industry trends, AI opportunities, and sectors like the new energy vehicle supply chain and humanoid robots [3] - The passive investment options include the Morgan Hang Seng Technology ETF (QDII) and other funds targeting innovative pharmaceutical companies and global tech leaders [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to remain in a high central oscillation phase in Q2, with external demand pressures not yet evident but still a concern for the future. The market's ability to fully break through is limited due to insufficient time to digest fundamental expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The A-share market is characterized as a high central oscillation phase, with fundamental factors indicating an upward ceiling. The key variable affecting the fundamentals is the impact of Trump's tariffs, with expectations of policy adjustments and negotiations between China and the U.S. [2]. - The supply side shows a high visibility of significant supply clearance, but the absolute level remains high, making it difficult for supply-demand dynamics to improve within 2025 [2]. - The financial policy's comprehensive and consistent implementation is expected to stabilize market expectations and maintain market activity, despite the potential for downward pressure [3]. Group 2: Policy and Liquidity Factors - Recent financial policy announcements are expected to exceed market expectations in terms of their comprehensive and consistent implementation, which is crucial for stabilizing capital market expectations [2][3]. - The current market phase is marked by a verification period for policy layout and performance, with the execution of growth-stabilizing policies becoming a primary concern for the capital market [3]. Group 3: Public Fund Trends - The long-term trends in public fund product structure adjustments include a strengthened trend towards passive equity products, with three resonances: investor demand, policy encouragement, and the weakening of active fund incentives [4]. - There is an expected increase in strategic investments in low-volatility and asset allocation products, which are encouraged by management to attract long-term capital into the market [4][5]. - Public funds are likely to increase their willingness to allocate to clearly undervalued sectors, with typical low-allocation sectors identified as banking, non-bank financials, public utilities, and transportation [5]. Group 4: Sector Performance and Opportunities - Short-term and long-term structural directions favor technology, with the first quarter showing strong performance in consumption, pharmaceuticals, and technology sectors [8]. - The domestic AI industry and embodied intelligence are highlighted as investment opportunities, with a focus on the robotics sector showing better micro-structural performance compared to AI [8]. - The market is expected to maintain oscillation in Q2-Q3, with both technology and consumption sectors needing to capitalize on wave opportunities [8]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Earnings - The expansion of the profit-making effect is observed across various sectors, with banking, public utilities, and international military industries showing significant growth [12]. - The sentiment indicators suggest a continued expansion in the market, with low valuation and high dividend sectors experiencing increased profitability [9][12].

中金研究 红利风格作为过去3年A股和港股市场持续性较好的主线之一，从去年"924"之后至今年3月，相对收益一度下降。4月初随着美国关税政策带来外部不确 定性，A股整体企业盈利景气行业预期受到影响，投资者对业绩稳定性和确定性的要求上升，红利风格关注度阶段回升。近期2024年年报披露结束， 2024年A股上市公司提升分红意愿进一步提升，在上市企业盈利增速同比有所下降的情况下，分红总额同比增长5%左右，成为高股息投资的重要支 撑。本报告结合2024年年报，重点梳理当前A股市场分红特征的变化情况，并对相关红利选股模型进行进一步优化与更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 2024年A股上市公司的分红特征 A股上市公司现金分红总额创历史新高，约九成盈利企业进行现金分红。 2024年4月"新国九条"出台以来，监管层持续强化对现金分红的鼓励和支持力 度，叠加A股上市公司自由现金流改善，A股整体现金分红水平进一步提高。具体来看：1）2024年A股上市公司累计现金分红金额2.3万亿元，同比增速 5%；现金分红公司数量占比69.1%，剔除亏损上市公司后2024年分红公司数量占比89.3%。2）A股整体分红比例（现金分红/净利润）提升2. ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨建筑与工程 [Table_Title] 重视建筑板块高股息投资机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 继续看好建筑板块高股息投资机会：1）建筑央企：资质齐全，经营稳健受益稳增长，高股息 首选中国建筑；2）地方国企：聚焦政策发展趋势和方向，四川省战略腹地建设，首选四川路 桥；3）国际工程：重视"一带一路"投资机遇，标的包括中钢国际&中材国际；4）优质民 企：筛选经营基本面稳健，分红率提升标的，首选江河集团。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 央企高股息首选中国建筑：1）2024 年公司业绩承压，但通过提高分红率（从 20%左右提升到 24%以上）保障分红，高股息属性凸显；2）订单来看，基建业务新签高增：2024 年公司基建 业务新签合同额 14149 亿元，同比增长 21.1%；2025Q1 基建新签同比增长 40%；3）公司分 红率、股息率均位列 8 大 ...

| | | 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 [Table_Title] 4 月进口煤量继续减量，煤价继续探底 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 《煤炭开采行业周报：进口约束与发运倒挂支撑基 本面，煤炭高股息价值持续关注（推荐）*煤炭开 采*陈晨》——2025-04-20 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/05/09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | -0.4% | -6.3% | -21.7% | | 沪深 300 | 4.3% | -1.2% | 5.0% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述： 煤企成本下降难补煤价跌，煤企业绩进一步向合理 区间回归（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2025-05-09 《煤炭开采行业周报：港口库存延续去化，煤价筑 底下关注高股息价值（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》— —2025-04-27 《煤炭开采行业专题研究：2025Q1 主动型基金重 仓股煤炭持仓比例降至 0.44%，高股息红利资产底 部配置价值凸显（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— ...

2025 年 05 月 11 日 黄金坑成功兑现：后续是高低结构再平衡 本周上证指数涨 1.92%回升至 3350 附近，沪深 300 涨 2.00%，创业板指涨 3.27%，所有一级行业均实现上涨。自我们国投策略团队 4 月 7 号《这是一个 "黄金坑"！》提出"黄金坑"，从 4 月初至 4 月中旬"坑底明确"到"爬坑"， 黄金坑获得阶段性验证；到上证综指回到清明节前水平"迎接出坑"，可以明确 地说：本轮"黄金坑"基本符合我们的判断。对于后续大盘指数预判，我们反复 强调：大盘指数会转入"震荡市"思维，对应"强预期、弱现实"定价状态，但 没有明显"二次探底"风险，在这个阶段安心做结构，好好找α是可以的。 事实上，市场在此期间对于"二次探底"仍有诸多探讨，但我们认为"二次探底" 的促发因素在于美元指数的意外走升，眼下美元指数大致在 100 附近波动，"弱 美元"底色并未改变，意味着由美向非美资产的回摆过程依然是全球资产定价 的底层逻辑。同时，市场进一步大幅向上的重要制约是国内基本面充满韧性却 存在环比走弱压力。目前，可以看到 1-3 月全国财政支出增速进一步扩张到 4.2% （前值 3.4%），但央地财政支出增 ...

注意两个关键点位：沪指要是跌破3330点且成交量缩到万亿以下，赶紧减仓避险；反过来如果放量突破3360点，科技成长股又能浪起来！记住帮主说的，现 在市场处于政策底和经济底之间的磨人阶段，中长线投资者千万别被短期波动带偏节奏。 下周重点盯紧两件大事：一个是美联储5月15日的议息会议，虽然市场赌不加息，但鲍威尔的讲话可能暗藏玄机；更关键的是周二美国4月CPI数据，要是通 胀超预期，全球市场都得抖三抖！国内方面，5月PMI和社融数据也要盯，还有中美关税谈判进展，这些都可能成为行情催化剂。 第一大赛道还是科技成长！但记住要挑硬核标的。AI算力、半导体国产化这些政策力挺的方向，回调就是机会。比如CPO光模块龙头中际旭创，北向资金最 近天天加仓，业绩确定性摆在那儿。第二赛道消费复苏，五一假期数据超预期，旅游、免税、家电这些板块值得关注。格力电器、中国中免现在估值还在地 板上，性价比杠杠的！第三赛道防御配置，银行股最近走独立行情，建设银行都创历史新高了，高股息策略在震荡市就是压舱石。 仓位建议保持五成，进可攻退可守。科技股要是跌破20日均线分批低吸，但别碰PEEK材料这些纯概念炒作。消费股可以等回调到年线附近抄底，像中国中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in the A-share market demonstrates strong resilience amid market fluctuations, with significant capital inflows into undervalued, high-dividend banking assets reflecting an increased demand for defensive sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 9, the banking sector outperformed the market, with the China Securities Banking Index rising for three consecutive trading days, and several banks, including Chengdu Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Jiangsu Bank, reaching historical highs [1][2]. - The Huabao China Securities Banking ETF saw a single-day increase of 1.35%, also hitting a historical peak, with total trading volume for the top 12 banking ETFs reaching 9.55 billion yuan, of which Huabao accounted for 3.93 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Investment Insights - The banking sector's current dividend yield is approximately 6.5%, ranking second among all Shenwan first-level industries, with a PE ratio of 6.5 and a PB ratio of around 0.53, both of which are the lowest across sectors [3]. - Historical data indicates that the banking sector has consistently outperformed the CSI 300 index since 2011, with a 70% annual win rate and ranking in the top five for historical returns in seven out of 30 industry years [5]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Support - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing growth, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, are expected to enhance the banking operating environment and support the overall economy [4]. - The "national team" remains a steadfast holder of banking stocks, with significant positions in major banks, indicating confidence in the sector's long-term value [3].