Manufacturing Sector - In June, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold of 50[1] - The production and demand indices have risen into the expansion zone, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing activity[5] - The purchasing volume index showed the largest month-on-month improvement, followed by finished goods inventory and price indices[5] - The new orders index rose to 50.2, up by 0.4 from the previous month, while the new export orders index increased to 47.7, up by 0.2[10] - The price index remains at historical lows, which continues to squeeze future profit margins for companies[5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI recorded 50.5, with the service sector at 50.1 and the construction sector at 52.8, indicating mixed performance across sectors[12] - The service sector PMI saw a slight decline due to seasonal adjustments post-holiday, but is expected to rebound with the upcoming summer consumption peak[12] - The construction sector PMI showed a recovery, with the business activity index for housing construction rising above 51%, signaling positive changes in housing activity[13] - The investment in construction remains low year-on-year, primarily due to insufficient real estate investment demand[13]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous value of 49.5%, suggesting a continued recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8% from 51%, while the services business activity index decreased to 50.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The production index and new orders index in manufacturing are both in the expansion zone, with marginal increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points to 51% and 50.2%, respectively [2] Group 2 - The internal demand index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.6%, outpacing the new export orders index, which rose by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7% [2] - High-frequency indicators show that the year-on-year growth rate of foreign trade cargo volume narrowed from -3.8% to -3.5%, indicating a continued weakening in export strength [2] - The PMI data indicates a divergence in performance among enterprises, with large and medium-sized enterprises seeing increases in PMI, while small enterprises experienced a decline to 47.3%, the lowest since September 2024 [3] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector faces downward pressure due to a potential weakening in export chain production as the equipment renewal cycle declines [3] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption relending initiative, are expected to support service consumption and infrastructure investment [3] - The PMI improvements in June were more pronounced in industries such as petroleum processing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and chemical manufacturing, while sectors like electrical machinery and textiles saw significant declines [3]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - June manufacturing PMI slightly improved by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, remaining below the expansion threshold[2] - New export orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7%, indicating ongoing export challenges despite temporary easing in US-China trade tensions[3] - New orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, with consumer goods PMI improving by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%[3] Inventory and Production Trends - Finished goods inventory index surged by 1.6 percentage points to 48.1%, but annualized index fell by 0.1 percentage points to a low of 47.6%[4] - Production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, reflecting a temporary improvement in production driven by consumption and export demand[4] Economic Outlook and Risks - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to subsidies stimulating durable consumption and a second wave of export efforts[4] - Future uncertainties hinge on the domestic real estate market's recovery and the potential impact of the US tax reduction plan on local production and consumption[4] - There is a risk of additional interest rate cuts if the real estate market continues to struggle, with potential for increased subsidies for durable goods[4]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment compared to the previous value of 49.5%[1] - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8% from 51%, while the services business activity index decreased slightly to 50.1%[1] - The new orders index entered the expansion zone at 50.2%, reflecting the effectiveness of domestic demand policies[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The production index increased to 51% from 50.7%, showing strong production momentum[2] - The purchasing quantity index surged by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating increased procurement activity[3] - The employment indices for manufacturing and services fell to 47.9% and 46.4%, respectively, highlighting employment pressures[3] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index rose by 1.5 percentage points to 46.2%, while the raw material purchase price index increased to 48.4%[2] - The raw material inventory index rose to 48%, and finished goods inventory decreased to 48.1%[3] - The Brent crude oil price peaked at $80.46 per barrel, contributing to a 4.96% year-on-year increase in the CRB index[2] Group 4: Sector Performance - The construction sector showed significant recovery, with the index rising to 52.8%, driven by new orders and business activity[5] - Small enterprises recorded a decline in sentiment, with their index dropping to 47.3% from 49.3%[5] - The overall economic resilience is supported by the combination of tariff pauses and proactive policies, with the second quarter showing better performance than the previous year[6]

Group 1 - Most Asian currencies strengthened as data indicated improvement in Chinese business activity, while the US dollar weakened due to heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][3] - The US dollar remains at a three-year low, pressured by rising government debt concerns, especially with a comprehensive tax cut and spending reduction bill progressing in the Senate [3][7] - The Chinese yuan appreciated slightly, with the June PMI showing a smaller-than-expected contraction in manufacturing and a rebound in non-manufacturing activity [4][5] Group 2 - The data reflects an improvement in Chinese business activity, with a recovery in overseas orders following the agreement to reduce trade tariffs between the US and China [5] - Despite the improvement, Chinese manufacturing has contracted for the third consecutive month, indicating ongoing pressure from relatively high US tariffs and weak domestic demand [5] - The US dollar index and futures fell by 0.2%, remaining close to the lowest level since early 2022, amid market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] Group 3 - Concerns over rising US government debt due to the tax cut bill are weighing on the dollar, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating an increase of nearly $3.3 trillion in debt over the next decade [7] - The Asian currencies generally benefited from the weak dollar, although some lackluster data and uncertainty regarding Trump's trade policies limited larger gains [7] - The Japanese yen fell by 0.4% against the dollar, despite lower-than-expected industrial production growth in May [9]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, up from 49.5% in May, aligning with market expectations[2] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%[5] - Large and medium enterprises showed improved sentiment, with large enterprises' PMI rising to 51.2% and medium enterprises' PMI to 48.6%, while small enterprises' PMI fell to 47.3%[5] Economic Recovery Indicators - External disturbances have weakened, leading to a recovery in new export orders, which continue to rise[3] - High-energy-consuming industries are stabilizing, with their PMI increasing by 0.8 percentage points to 47.8%[15] - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, primarily due to the end of holiday effects, but remains in the expansion zone[27] Price and Inventory Trends - The raw material purchase price index rose to 48.4%, and the factory price index increased to 46.2%, both recovering from previous declines[23] - The raw material inventory index increased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.0%, indicating improved production activity[23] Construction Sector - The construction sector's business activity index rose significantly to 52.8%, reflecting a positive trend in housing construction activities[32] - The government is implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, which is expected to further improve supply-demand dynamics[33]

Core Viewpoint - In June 2025, three soft indicators showed divergence: EPMI and BCI declined, while manufacturing PMI increased slightly by 0.2 points to 49.7, indicating mixed economic signals in the manufacturing sector [1][3][4]. Group 1: PMI Analysis - The increase in manufacturing PMI is attributed to sample differences, with EPMI focusing on strategic emerging industries and BCI primarily representing private small and medium enterprises. The structure of June's PMI indicates that large enterprises are experiencing improved conditions, while small enterprises are facing downturns [4][5]. - In June, large enterprises' PMI was 51.2, up from 50.7; medium enterprises' PMI was 48.6, up from 47.5; and small enterprises' PMI was 47.3, down from 49.3, highlighting the disparity in performance across different enterprise sizes [5]. Group 2: Industry Performance - Significant increases in PMI were observed in the petroleum processing, chemical, and pharmaceutical industries, with respective increases of 8.6, 7.2, and 4.0 points. These changes are expected to have a notable impact on overall data due to the substantial contribution of these industries to manufacturing value added [6][8]. - The rise in the petroleum and chemical sectors is linked to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly due to recent increases in international crude oil prices [2][6]. Group 3: Employment and Expectations - Manufacturing employment and enterprise expectations both saw declines in June, indicating a slowdown in internal economic momentum when excluding the impacts of commodity price fluctuations [8][10]. - The manufacturing employment index was reported at 47.9, down from 48.1, while the production and business activity expectation index was at 52.0, down from 52.5, reflecting cautious sentiment among manufacturers [9][10]. Group 4: Positive Signals - Despite some negative indicators, there were positive signals in June, such as a slight increase in new export orders to 47.7, which contrasts with the direction of EPMI export orders, suggesting potential for future verification [11]. - The construction sector also showed improvement, with the construction PMI rising by 1.8 points to 52.8, driven by better orders and business activity expectations, likely influenced by recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [10][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly preview of key economic data releases and events, and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market. Different economic indicators and events may have various effects on different types of futures, such as industrial product futures, stock index futures, bond futures, and precious metal futures. For example, if certain manufacturing PMI data is higher than the previous value, it may slightly boost the prices of industrial product futures and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [3][11][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - On June 30 at 09:30, China's June official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI will be released [2][3]. - On July 1 at 09:45, Markit will announce China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI [2][11]. - On July 1 at 22:00, the US ISM will release the US June ISM manufacturing PMI [2][17]. - On July 2 at 20:15, the US ADP will announce the June ADP employment change [2][19]. - On July 3 at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June non - farm payroll report [2][22]. - Also, pay attention to domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials [2]. This Week's Hotspot Preview June 30 - China's June official manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7 (previous 49.5), and non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.3 (previous 50.3). A slight increase in manufacturing PMI may slightly boost industrial product and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [3]. - Germany's June CPI annual rate initial value is expected to be 2.2% (previous 2.1%) [5]. - The US June Chicago PMI is expected to be 43 (previous 40.5) [8]. - The European Central Bank will hold a central bank forum in Sintra from June 30 to July 2 [9]. July 1 - The USDA will release the quarterly inventory report and planting intention report at 00:00, which may affect agricultural product futures [10]. - China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49 (previous 48.3). A slight increase may slightly boost industrial product and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [11]. - Germany's May real retail sales monthly rate is expected to be 0% (previous - 1.2%) [12]. - Germany's June seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate is expected to be 6.4% (previous 6.3%), and the number of unemployed is expected to increase by 15,000 (previous 34,000) [13]. - The eurozone's June harmonized CPI annual rate un - seasonally - adjusted initial value is expected to be 2.0% (previous 1.9%), and the core harmonized CPI annual rate un - seasonally - adjusted initial value is expected to be 2.3% (previous 2.4%) [14]. - Germany's June CPI annual rate initial value is expected to be 2.3% (previous 2.4%) [15]. - Global Western central bank governors will have a panel discussion at 21:30 [16]. - The US June ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.8 (previous 48.5). A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related futures but suppress gold and silver futures [17]. July 2 - The eurozone's May unemployment rate is expected to be 6.2% (previous 6.2%) [18]. - The US June ADP new employment is expected to be 85,000 (previous 37,000). An increase may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [19]. - The US EIA will announce the change in crude oil inventory for the week ending June 27. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [20]. July 3 - China's June Caixin services PMI is expected to be 51.5 (previous 51.1) [21]. - The US June seasonally - adjusted new non - farm employment is expected to be 110,000 (previous 139,000), the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.3% (previous 4.2%), and the average hourly wage annual rate is expected to be 3.9% (previous 3.9%). A significant decrease in new non - farm employment and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate may boost gold and silver futures but suppress other industrial product futures [22]. - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 29 are expected to be 240,000 (previous 236,000) [23]. - The US May factory orders monthly rate is expected to be 8% (previous - 0.37%). A significant increase may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [25]. - The US June ISM non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5 (previous 49.9). A slight increase may slightly suppress gold and silver futures [26]. July 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in circulation in late June, covering 9 categories and 50 products [27]. July 6 - OPEC + eight member countries will hold a meeting to decide the production policy for August, which may affect related commodity futures [28].

国家统计局：产需指数均位于扩张区间。生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.0%和50.2%，比上月上升0.3和0.4个百分点，制造业生产活动加快，市场需求有所改善。大中型企业景气度提高。大型企业PMI为51.2%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，继续位于扩张区间，对制造业整体支撑作用显著；中型企业PMI为48.6%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，景气水平有所改善；小型企业PMI为47.3%，比上月下降2.0个百分点。 ...

Manufacturing Sector - China's official manufacturing PMI for June is 497,000 thousand, slightly below the 50 threshold indicating contraction [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI stands at 505,000 thousand, indicating continued expansion in the service sector [1] Composite PMI - The composite PMI is 507,000 thousand, suggesting overall economic activity is expanding [1]