1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Strong - biased, ★★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Iran situation and Trump's actions, along with Fed - related factors, support the long - term strategic value of gold and silver [1][3] - Copper has supply constraints in the short - to - medium term, and its long - term outlook is positive due to supply shortages and growing green demand [1][5][6] - Zinc rebounds due to unexpected inventory reduction in the off - season and active enterprise restocking [1][7][9] - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and demand differentiation [1][11][12] - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of overseas supply contraction and domestic high - inventory and weak - consumption conditions [1][14][16] - Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish as supply is tight and demand is expected to increase [1][18][19] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold futures rose 8.44% weekly, approaching the $5000 key psychological level; COMEX silver futures soared 16.63% weekly, breaking through the $100 mark [2] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical tensions, Fed - related factors, and central bank gold - buying support long - term strategic value; silver follows gold's safe - haven property [1][3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term holding; domestic gold has short - term support at 1085, and domestic silver at 23150; long - term bullish in 2026 [1][3] Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices are oscillating strongly; for example, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract increased by 2.21% [4] - **Core Logic**: Japanese smelters face pressure in TC/RC negotiations, and Chile delays the peak of copper production; short - term supply is tight, and long - term demand from green sectors is strong [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, take profit on long positions; long - term, bullish; SHFE copper focuses on the range of [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on [13000, 13500] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc prices are rising; the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.51% [7] - **Core Logic**: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026; domestic inventory reduction in the off - season exceeds expectations, and enterprises restock actively [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions at high prices; enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging; SHFE zinc focuses on [24500, 24500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on [3250, 3300] dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [11] - **Core Logic**: The output of electrolytic aluminum increases, and inventory accumulates; the alumina market is in surplus [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see; pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory; the main operation range is [23300 - 25300] [13] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices rebound under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [15] - **Core Logic**: Indonesia reduces nickel ore production targets, and domestic pure nickel inventory accumulates; stainless steel is in the off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see; pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory; the main operation range of nickel is [135000 - 153000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opens and closes higher, hitting a new high [18] - **Core Logic**: Supply is tight due to reduced production and uncertain resumption of production; demand is expected to increase as downstream prepares for the Spring Festival [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of [17300 - 185000] [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in a state of high activity with a strong upward trend, especially for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices. The market成交 remains high, and the upward momentum is expected to continue. However, there are also potential risks, such as a reversal in market liquidity, a burst of the US AI bubble, and lower - than - expected economic growth [20]. - In different commodity sectors: - Agricultural products: Overall, the supply and demand situation varies. For example, protein meal faces supply pressure, while sugar has supply - side issues both domestically and internationally. Oils and fats are in a state of wide - range oscillation [25][28][31]. - Metals: Precious metals like gold and silver are strongly influenced by geopolitical factors and are expected to maintain a strong upward trend. Base metals have different trends, such as copper being in a high - level consolidation phase, and iron ore having a weakening fundamental outlook [70][77][65]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Other products like asphalt, fuel oil, and LPG also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [120][122][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The IC and IM indices are accelerating upwards. The market enthusiasm is high, and the upward trend is expected to continue. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are favored. Trading strategies include going long on IM and IC in the medium - to - long term, and using grid trading for IF and IH in the short term [18][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Economic data is mixed, and the central bank's attitude towards liquidity is positive. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions in TL and consider short - selling the basis of 30Y active bonds [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is increasing, and the overall market is declining. The US soybean market is under pressure due to a generally loose supply - demand situation, while the domestic market may have some support in the short - term but still faces long - term pressure [25][27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is falling, while the Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong. The international sugar market is affected by the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, while the domestic market is under supply pressure but has some support at low prices [28][30]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sector is expected to continue wide - range oscillations. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory of various oils is in different states. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and inventory [31][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The northern port spot price is rising, and the market is in a strong - side oscillation. The US corn market is affected by export sales and weather, while the domestic market has a stable spot price in the short - term but still faces pressure [35][37]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure is improving, and the spot price is gradually rising. However, the overall supply pressure still exists, and the price is still under pressure [38][40]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the market is oscillating at the bottom. The import volume is decreasing, and the oil mill has a profit. The 05 contract is recommended to go long at low prices [41][43]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg price is rising. The supply is gradually reducing production, but the 03 contract may have limited upward space due to the weak demand after the Spring Festival [44][48]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the price is firm. The inventory is low, the cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the 5 - month contract price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [50][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The sales progress is fast, and the improvement in Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile factories' production capacity support the market. The short - term market is expected to oscillate within a range [56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The steel production and inventory are in a complex state, and the cost is supported. The market is expected to remain oscillating before the Spring Festival [59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are lackluster, and attention should be paid to capital disturbances. The supply of coking coal is not tight, and the downstream replenishment is not strong. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices [61][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is at a low level, and the iron ore price is oscillating. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the high - valuation situation is expected to be difficult to sustain. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [65][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is low and there is a need for restoration, and the short - term market is oscillating strongly. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are improving marginally, and the cost is supported [67][69]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold has broken through the $5000 mark, and silver has entered the "three - digit" era. Geopolitical factors are the main drivers, and the prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term [70][73]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical events have led to a rift in trust between Europe and the United States, and the precious metals are strongly rising. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium [74][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price is in a high - level consolidation phase. The increase in inventory and the uncertainty of tariffs have an impact on the short - term price, but the long - term supply shortage and strong financial attributes support the price [77][79]. - **Alumina**: The market is mainly oscillating at a low level. The supply has short - term maintenance and production reduction, and the fundamentals are still weak [80][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum price is oscillating and rebounding. The global shortage is more prominent overseas, and the downstream has replenishment sentiment, supporting the price [84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Driven by risk appetite, the alloy is oscillating and rebounding with the sector. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price [85][86]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the change in domestic social inventory. The supply of zinc concentrate is still in short supply, and the supply of refined zinc is increasing. The market is expected to oscillate and rebound [87][93]. - **Lead**: There may be support at the bottom. The supply of primary lead is stable, and the production of recycled lead may decline. The demand is weakening, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [93][97]. - **Nickel**: The long - term expectation is leading the nickel price to rise. The short - term reality is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The price is expected to have upward space after high - level consolidation [98][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to remain high [102]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The news of production reduction is fermenting, but the coking coal is dragging down the market. The short - term market is oscillating strongly. If the production reduction is implemented, the price may rise [104]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is declining, and the short - term futures are under pressure. The high inventory and weak demand may lead to a decline in the spot price, and the futures should be treated with a short - term bearish view [105][106]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and cautious operation is recommended. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by pre - holiday stocking. The price may continue to rise, but there are also regulatory risks [110][112]. - **Tin**: The tin price has increased in volume and broken through. The inventory is increasing, the production is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely at a high level [114][116]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is continuing to decline, and attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics. The freight rate is in the off - season decline process, and the impact of export tax rebates and geopolitical factors on the market needs to be observed [117][118]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Driven by risk appetite, geopolitical sentiment still exists. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps in Europe and the United States are boosting the price, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [120][121]. - **Asphalt**: Low inventory and low production support the spot price. The market is following the high - level oscillation of crude oil, and the demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches [122][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals remain weak, and geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are expected to be stable and weak in the first quarter, while the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing [127][128]. - **LPG**: International propane is in short supply, and chemical demand is declining. The international market is tight, the supply of domestic liquefied gas is increasing slightly, and the demand for downstream chemicals is decreasing [130]. - **Natural Gas**: It is expected that the upward space of LNG price is limited, and attention should be paid to the market risk of US HH near the delivery date. The short - term price is supported by cold weather, but the long - term demand growth is slow, and the price is expected to decline [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention is increasing, and the aromatics sector is in a strong atmosphere. The PX supply is at a high level, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital sentiment [136][138]. - **BZ & EB**: There are frequent unexpected device problems, and the export transactions are good. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the supply of styrene is affected by device problems. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [140][142]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Saudi Arabia's maintenance is expected to reduce imports, and the Lianyungang device is switching production. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [143][145]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is weakening. The load is expected to decrease, and the price is following the cost side [146][148]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The maintenance is accelerating in late January, and the price is following the cost side. The start - up rate is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [149]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market supply and demand are supported [150][152]. - **Plastics (L & PP)**: The operation of the rubber and plastics industry is continuously improving. The prices of L and PP are rising, and the industry's profitability is improving [153][154]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is weakening. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The price and the futures market are expected to be weak [155][158]. - **PVC**: The price continues to rise. The start - up rate is expected to decrease, the export is expected to be strong, and the price is expected to continue to be strong [159][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is oscillating and repairing. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price decline is expected to slow down [161][163]. - **Glass**: The futures price is oscillating. The market is affected by the real - estate situation, and the price is expected to decline with a narrowing range [164][166]. - **Methanol**: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate is declining, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. The market is supported by the overall strength of chemical products [166][168]. - **Urea**: The market is mainly oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has an impact on sentiment, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate [169][171]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is oscillating widely. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Chilean fire on the pulp supply. The supply is greater than the demand, and the price is expected to be bullish, but the impact of the fire needs to be observed [172][175]. - **Logs**: Due to natural disasters in New Zealand, the supply is tightening, and the spot price is slightly strong. The price is affected by supply and demand in different regions, and the long - position should be held [176][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound momentum. The supply is still sufficient, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [180][182]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The NR warehouse receipts are reducing inventory, and the tire inventory is increasing. The inventory of different types of rubber is in different states, and the short - position is recommended for RU and NR [183][186]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts are increasing inventory, and the tire inventory is increasing. The inventory is increasing, and the market should be observed [186][189].

地缘事件引发信任裂痕，贵金属强势上涨 研究员：袁正 期货从业证号：F03151476 投资咨询资格证号：Z0023508 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 交易、套利数据追踪 7 第三章 基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 铂钯：地缘事件引发信任裂痕，贵金属强势上涨 ◼【综合分析】 宏观面：上周市场主要叙事由美联储人事风波让位于地缘政治与关税危机，经济数据的影响弱化。周初特朗普称希望哈塞特继续担任白宫顾问 ，引发市场对于后续降息预期走弱，贵金属及相应风险资产价格回落；但后续特朗普关税工具威胁欧洲以获取格陵兰岛的问题上摇摆不定，成 为市场关注的重点，即便周中公布的美国经济数据如GDP有较强韧性，但总体来看美元指数疲弱，欧洲长期资本对美元资产的信心正因地缘 政治与财政风险而动摇，可能预示着全球资本流动格局的重塑，贵金属价格在美元指 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling for copper; strengthening waiting and seeing for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish trend for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda, benzene, rubber, urea, methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins; waiting and seeing for soda ash [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; weak oscillation for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds for hogs; not advisable to chase short positions in the short term for eggs; being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices for corn; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean oil and palm oil [1] Core Views - Geopolitical disturbances are increasing, which strengthens the precious metals sector. Stock indices may trade in a range, and government bonds are expected to oscillate. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals. Rebar is in a short - term range - bound state. Glass is expected to oscillate weakly. Copper is affected by the game between macro - level support and weak fundamentals. Aluminum may continue high - level adjustments. Nickel is affected by various factors and is recommended to be observed. Tin supply is tight, and it is recommended for range trading. Silver and gold are affected by geopolitical and economic factors, with their medium - term price centers moving up. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly. PVC may have bottomed out. Caustic soda has short - term delivery pressure. Benzene styrene has a high valuation and is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. Rubber has cost support and may continue to rise. Urea supply is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate. Methanol is affected by supply and demand and geopolitical factors. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, and it is recommended to wait and see. Cotton and cotton yarn have long - term optimistic expectations. Apples and jujubes are in a weak oscillation state. Hogs are in a bottom - building stage, with different strategies for different periods. Eggs are not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. Corn is in a short - term balance and has a loose supply - demand pattern in the medium to long term. Soybean meal has different trends for different contracts. Oils have different trends, with rapeseed oil being weak and soybean and palm oil having limited rebounds [1][5][6][8][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][30][33][34][35][36][37][43][44] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Geopolitical disturbances increase, and the precious metals sector strengthens, causing stock indices to potentially trade in a range [1][5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. The long - end and ultra - long - end of government bonds face resistance in further decline, while short - end varieties have strong allocation enthusiasm [1][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals, with supply disturbances potentially limiting the downside, but demand weakness is the dominant factor [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price rebounded on Friday, with a slightly low static valuation. In the short term, it is in a range - bound state due to a short - term policy vacuum and small supply - demand contradictions [8] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 1050 - 1070. The manufacturer's shipping speed slows down, and the market lacks upward momentum [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling. The price is in a high - level oscillation, with strong macro - level support but weak fundamentals. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of long - position profit - taking before the Spring Festival [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening waiting and seeing. The price may continue high - level adjustments due to factors such as changes in supply and demand and macro - level sentiment [13] - **Nickel**: Waiting and seeing. Affected by factors such as Indonesia's quota reduction and weak fundamentals, the price has risen, but it is recommended to wait and see as the market has fully priced in [14] - **Tin**: Range trading or taking profit on previous long positions. The supply is tight, and the downstream maintains rigid demand. It is recommended to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [15][16] - **Silver**: Bullish trend. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [16] - **Gold**: Range trading. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to trade in a range and be cautious about chasing high prices [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbance of Yichun's mining end [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The bottom may have been reached. The supply - demand situation is still weak, but there are opportunities for structural upgrading. It is recommended to take a long - term low - buying approach [17][19] - **Caustic Soda**: Waiting and seeing. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the upside is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to supply - side adjustments and other factors [19] - **Benzene Styrene**: Range trading. The price has rebounded, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20][21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strong, and the price may continue to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [20][21] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate within the range of 1730 - 1830. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [22][23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the inland area recovers, and the demand is mixed. The price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and supply factors [24] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The cost support is strengthened, but the supply increases and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply - demand contradiction is relieved, and the downside is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The long - term expectation is optimistic, but it is recommended to be cautious in the short term [27] - **Apples**: Weak oscillation. The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the trading of farmers' goods is slow, and the prices in some areas are loose [27] - **Jujubes**: Weak oscillation. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading is stable [29][30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the production capacity is being reduced, but it is still above the equilibrium level, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [30][31][33] - **Eggs**: Not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the production capacity needs time to clear, and it is necessary to pay attention to external factors [33][34] - **Corn**: Being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Shorting on rallies. The short - term support is strong, but the long - term price is under pressure. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [36] - **Oils**: Weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean and palm oil. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up for soybean and palm oil and pay attention to spread trading [37][43][44]

2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 3 | | 铜：铜矿扰动增加，价格走强 | 5 | | 锌：偏强运行 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：震荡偏强 | 10 | | 铝：偏强震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：底部盘整 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：上涨势头猛烈 | 13 | | 钯：警惕补涨动能 | 13 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：强现实支撑，高位震荡 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游工厂减产，盘面震荡偏强 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：产业叠加 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, MEG, short - fiber, bottle - chip, LPG, propylene, fuel - oil, low - sulfur fuel - oil: Bullish trend [2][73][74] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish but with marginal valuation pressure [2] - LLDPE, PP, glass, soda: Bearish trend [2] - Caustic soda, urea, benzene - ethylene, container shipping index (European line), PVC, offset printing paper, pure benzene: Neutral trend [2] Core Views - The prices of most energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as capital inflows, geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. For some products, capital plays a significant role in driving up prices, while for others, geopolitical risks and supply - demand imbalances are the main influencing factors [10][11][13] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Before the festival, the unilateral trend is bullish. 3 - 5 reverse spreads and 5 - 9 positive spreads are recommended. The current price increase is mainly driven by capital rather than fundamentals. The domestic and Asian device operating rates have slightly decreased, and it is in a state of inventory accumulation [10] - **PTA**: Before the festival, the unilateral trend is bullish. A 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. High processing fees may lead to the resumption of production of PTA devices. It is also in a state of inventory accumulation [11] - **MEG**: The trend remains bullish, and a 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. The device operating rate has slightly decreased, and the supply will marginally decline in the future. Although it is in an inventory - accumulation pattern, the overall trend is still bullish due to short - covering and capital inflows [12][13] Synthetic Rubber - It runs bullishly, but attention should be paid to marginal valuation pressure. The short - term strength is due to capital inflows and cost - push from butadiene. However, some valuation indicators are approaching their boundaries [14][16] LLDPE - The risk preference continues to spread, and the basis weakens significantly. Although the raw - material oil price is strong, the ethylene monomer link weakens. The supply pressure in the medium - term remains due to high production capacity and weakening demand [17][18] PP - The production scheduling remains at a low level, and the profit repair is limited. The cost end is strong, but the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [20][21] Caustic Soda - It fluctuates at a low level. Before the Spring Festival, there is pressure to reduce inventory, and the price continues to decline. The long - term contract may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [23][25] Glass - The original - sheet price is stable. The market demand is coming to an end, the rigid demand shrinks rapidly, and the inventory is under pressure. Some winter - storage and inventory - transfer policies may be introduced next month [28][29] Methanol - It fluctuates with support. The short - term is expected to be strong due to geopolitical conflicts and inventory improvement expectations. However, the over - speculation may be restricted by MTO plant maintenance and inventory de - stocking [32][35] Urea - The oscillation center moves up. Driven by the warm sentiment in the chemical sector, neutral fundamentals, and strong spring - plowing expectations, the price center slowly rises. The upper and lower bounds of the valuation are also gradually moving up [37][39] Benzene - Ethylene - It oscillates bullishly. The short - term market sentiment is high, but downstream profits are squeezed, and the inventory is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The price is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern [40][41] Soda - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda market is weakly stable, with flexible price transactions. The supply is adjusted at a high level, and the downstream demand is average [43][45] LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong. The price is affected by geopolitics and supply - demand relationships [48] - **Propylene**: The trend is bullish, but the upward momentum slows down [2] PVC - It oscillates within a range. The short - term is supported by the bullish sentiment of chemical products, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change. The short - term futures contract faces high - operation and weak - demand situations [56][57] Fuel - Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel - Oil - **Fuel - oil**: It rises strongly, and the volatility continues to increase [59] - **Low - sulfur fuel - oil**: It continues the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has fallen to a low point again [59] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in an oscillatory market. The 04 short positions should be gradually reduced and observed, and the 10 short positions can be held as appropriate [61] Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip - **Short - fiber**: The short - term trend is bullish. The futures price has risen significantly, and the spot price has been adjusted upwards [73][74] - **Bottle - chip**: The short - term trend is bullish. The upstream raw - material futures continue to rise strongly, and the factory has continuously raised the quotation [73][74] Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and see. The market price is stable, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [76][77][79] Pure Benzene - It oscillates bullishly. The inventory has decreased, and the spot price has risen [80][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Regarding methanol, the current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. - In the case of rubber, with a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - Regarding polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. - For PX, currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. - Regarding PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. In the short - term, beware of the risk of processing fee corrections, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to medium - term opportunities to buy on dips [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory - accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 4.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.99% decline, at 441.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 54.00 yuan/ton, a 2.09% increase, at 2643.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 9.00 yuan/ton, a 0.29% decline, at 3116.00 yuan/ton. US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.60 million barrels to 426.05 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; SPR replenished 0.81 million barrels to 414.48 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 5.98 million barrels to 256.99 million barrels, a 2.38% increase; diesel inventories increased by 3.35 million barrels to 132.59 million barrels, a 2.59% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.59 million barrels to 24.13 million barrels, a 2.37% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 42.35 million barrels, a 1.83% decrease [1][2][7]. - **Strategy View**: Although geopolitical premiums have dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but currently, wait for OPEC's export decline when prices fall for validation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Methanol - **Market Information**: No specific market price information provided. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, due to recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 48 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 12 yuan/ton, reporting 1788 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy View**: The current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching. So, it is advisable to short on rallies [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities and chemicals as a whole rose, and rubber prices rebounded oscillating. Butadiene drove up rubber and butadiene rubber prices. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of chemical long positions by macro funds, expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to naphtha consumption tax policies leading to subsequent production cut expectations, and increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea, with the butadiene inventory in East China ports dropping significantly from 44,600 tons to 34,500 tons. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve; the short - side believes that macro expectations are uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the seasonal off - peak season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, and the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,200 (+300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1,930 (+40) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1,930 (+40) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 10,600 (+800) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 12,100 (+600) yuan [10][11][12]. - **Strategy View**: With a good overall upward atmosphere in commodities but weak seasonality, adopt a neutral approach, trade short - term according to the market, and enter and exit quickly. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, reporting 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (+80) yuan/ton, the basis was - 271 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (+3) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 622 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period, and the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 308,000 tons (- 3,000), and the social inventory was 1.178 million tons (+33,000) [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, with poor fundamentals. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment support it, but in the medium term, before significant production cuts in the industry, the strategy is to short on rallies [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5930 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6056 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 126 yuan/ton, a reduction of 41 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7708 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton; the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 86 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB device profit was 117.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.85 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a reduction of 19 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 93,500 tons. On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively high neutral level, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly restored, it is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6865 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 84 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 29,200 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period [22]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the PE valuation still has downward space. In the seasonal off - peak season, the demand - side overall operating rate is oscillating downward [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6656 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 81 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline. The LL - PP spread was 209 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan increase from the previous period. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan reduction from the previous period [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, reporting 7508 yuan, the PX CFR increased by 16 US dollars, reporting 923 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity rate of the RMB, the basis was - 69 yuan (+1), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 118 yuan (- 40). The PX operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous period; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and overseas, the South Korean GS device restarted. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of January were 215,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 340 US dollars (+10), the South Korean PX - MX was 146 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (+15) [28]. - **Strategy View**: Currently maintaining a high load with many downstream PTA maintenance activities, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure with downstream PTA is strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to follow crude oil and buy on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, reporting 5448 yuan, the East China spot price increased by 130 yuan, reporting 5285 yuan, the basis was - 78 yuan (- 7), and the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan (+6). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous period. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. In terms of inventory, on January 16, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.045 million tons, a 40

Market Overview - Recent crude oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation, with Brent crude futures settling at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $61.07 per barrel, an increase of $1.63 (+2.74%) [6][49][53] - The market remains tense due to geopolitical factors, including potential changes in Iran and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, alongside the U.S. military presence in the Middle East [5][48][55] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The latest EIA data indicates a weekly crude oil inventory increase of 3.602 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising by 5.977 million barrels, both exceeding expectations [6][49][73] - Despite a slight reduction in production, overall demand appears weak, suggesting a continued trend of inventory accumulation [6][49][73] Geopolitical Influences - The U.S. has increased military presence in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential military actions against Iran, which could impact oil prices significantly [5][55] - The upcoming "U.S.-Ukraine" trilateral talks are expected to influence geopolitical tensions and, consequently, crude oil prices in the near future [5][48] Market Sentiment - The recent Davos Forum highlighted significant geopolitical narratives, with discussions around U.S. inflation, energy policies, and international relations affecting market perceptions [9][52] - The divergence in market sentiment regarding U.S. actions towards Iran reflects uncertainty, with mixed signals from U.S. officials regarding military engagement [5][55] Refinery Operations - U.S. refinery utilization has decreased by 2.0% to 93.30%, remaining above historical averages, indicating stable operational conditions despite minor fluctuations [76] - The overall demand for refined products has shown mixed trends, with gasoline demand slightly declining due to seasonal adjustments and extreme weather conditions [76][78]

Group 1 - Finnish Prime Minister Orpo's visit to China marks the first visit by a Finnish leader since 2017, indicating a shift in the development path of China-EU relations and changes in the internal power structure of Europe [1] - The visit aims to enhance dialogue with Chinese leadership and promote Finnish business opportunities in China, with discussions on bilateral relations, EU-China relations, and international issues like the Ukraine crisis [2] - Finland is a significant trading partner for China, with bilateral trade expected to exceed $8 billion by 2025 and mutual investment stock surpassing $23 billion [3] Group 2 - The visit includes over 20 Finnish business executives from sectors such as machinery, forest industry, innovation, clean energy, and food, highlighting Finland's competitive advantages [2] - The geopolitical context, particularly the pressures from the US, is influencing Finland's strategy to strengthen ties with China, focusing on low-risk areas like green technology and climate-related projects [2][3] - Finland's historical relationship with China, being one of the first Western countries to recognize China and sign a government trade agreement, continues to deepen with ongoing practical cooperation [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Germany is facing increasing pressure to repatriate a significant portion of its gold reserves from the United States due to concerns over the unpredictability of the Trump administration and changing transatlantic relations [1] Group 1: Gold Reserves Overview - Germany holds the second-largest national gold reserves globally, with approximately 1,236 metric tons valued at around $194 billion stored at the New York Federal Reserve Bank [1] - The total value of Germany's gold reserves is about $530 billion, with just over half stored at the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, 37% in New York, and 12% in the Bank of England in London [1] Group 2: Calls for Repatriation - Emmanuel Mense, a prominent economist and former head of research at the Deutsche Bundesbank, advocates for repatriating gold to enhance Germany's strategic independence amid current geopolitical tensions [1] - Michael Yeager, president of the European Taxpayers Association, urges Berlin to act, citing Trump's unpredictable nature as a reason for the insecurity of gold stored at the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Political Discourse - The debate over gold repatriation has transcended its previous association with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and has entered mainstream political discourse [1] - Katrin Becker, a spokesperson for the Green Party on finance, emphasizes that gold reserves are a crucial anchor of stability and trust, which should not be used as leverage in geopolitical disputes [1] Group 4: Expert Opinions - Not all experts agree on the repatriation of gold; Clemens Fuest, director of the Ifo Institute, warns that bringing back gold may only exacerbate the current situation [2] - The Merz coalition government has previously stated that it does not currently consider withdrawing gold reserves [3]