Market Overview - The overall market declined last week, with the Wind All A Index and the CSI A500 both down by 0.27% [1] - The average daily trading volume in the market increased to 1.37 trillion, showing a week-on-week rise [1] Industry Performance - In the CITIC primary industry sectors, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and pharmaceuticals led the gains, while food and beverage, computers, and building materials saw declines [1] Trade Relations - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, with a framework agreement reached to implement the consensus from the June 5 call between the two countries' leaders [1] - The US expressed a desire to reach a resolution with China regarding rare earth issues, and China has approved some export license applications related to rare earths [1] - Overall, the dialogue mechanism between China and the US is progressing in an orderly manner, with manageable short-term market impacts [1] Geopolitical Risks - The sixth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US scheduled for the 15th has been canceled, leading to heightened tensions in the Middle East and escalating geopolitical risks [1] Domestic Macro Data - In domestic macroeconomic data, May exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, but exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5% [2] - Both CPI and PPI showed negative year-on-year growth in May, indicating that inflation levels are still in a bottoming phase [2] - M1 growth reached 2.3%, the highest in nearly a year, while M2 growth remained stable, indicating overall liquidity is maintained [2] International Macro Data - In the US, May CPI data was below market expectations for the fourth consecutive month, and PPI showed moderate increases, suggesting mild inflationary pressures [2] - President Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts, with an announcement regarding the next Fed chair expected soon [2] Investment Opportunities - The ongoing geopolitical tensions may create short-term market volatility, but there could be "correction opportunities" following any mispricing [2] - Investors are advised to focus on stable income-generating assets such as the 10-year Treasury ETF, cash flow ETF, and dividend state-owned enterprise ETF [2]

Group 1 - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated, with Iran launching missile attacks on Israel, marking a significant increase in hostilities [1][7][11] - Iranian forces have reportedly fired over 270 missiles at various locations in Israel, resulting in casualties and damage [13][21] - Israel has responded with airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, including missile production facilities and leadership figures [19][24][22] Group 2 - Oil prices have surged due to the heightened tensions, with Brent crude rising by 5.5% and WTI crude increasing by over 6% at one point [3] - The conflict has implications for global oil markets, as instability in the Middle East often leads to fluctuations in oil prices [3][5] - Gold prices have also seen an uptick, with spot gold rising approximately 0.3% to surpass $3,440 per ounce [6] Group 3 - U.S. President Trump has expressed a belief that a potential agreement between Iran and Israel is possible, despite the ongoing conflict [2][26] - Trump has indicated that the U.S. is not currently involved in the military actions but may intervene in the future [2][26] - The situation has drawn international attention, with calls for mediation from figures like Russian President Putin [26]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the geopolitical dynamics between Israel and Iran, focusing on military actions, nuclear capabilities, and economic conditions in Iran. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Israel's Military Objectives**: Israel aims to weaken Iran's influence in the Middle East through airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, potentially leading to the overthrow of the Iranian Islamic regime [2][19]. 2. **Iran's Weak Retaliation**: Iran's response to Israeli actions has been weak, lacking the necessary resolve and strength to deter further aggression, which emboldens Israel [3][19]. 3. **US-Iran Negotiations**: Ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran focus on Iran abandoning its nuclear capabilities in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions, though the likelihood of sanctions being lifted remains low [4][6][7]. 4. **Nuclear Capability Status**: Iran is nearing the critical point of producing high-purity enriched uranium, which could lead to the development of nuclear weapons, although the necessary detonation device may have been destroyed by Israel [8][19]. 5. **Economic Challenges in Iran**: Iran faces severe economic issues, including a 40% inflation rate and significant currency devaluation, complicating its ability to respond to external pressures [16][20][23]. 6. **China's Role**: China is a major buyer of Iranian oil, accounting for 90% of Iran's oil revenue, which significantly impacts Iran's financial stability [24][25]. 7. **Internal Political Struggles**: Iran's internal political dynamics, including power struggles between hardliners and reformists, affect its foreign policy and military responses [11][12][30]. 8. **Strategic Weaknesses**: Iran's strategic deterrence has weakened due to its limited air force and complex internal political situation, which hampers its military effectiveness [9][10][19]. 9. **Potential for Escalation**: The ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to escalate, with both sides preparing for further confrontations [26][27]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Public Sentiment in Iran**: There is a divide between the Iranian populace, which may lean towards Western ideals, and the entrenched interests of the ruling elite, complicating national strategy [29][30]. 2. **Iran's Governance Compared to GCC**: Despite facing sanctions, Iran's governance is relatively stable compared to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which are more susceptible to US influence [21][33]. 3. **Economic Subsidies and Inflation**: The Iranian government subsidizes essential goods like gasoline and bread, but this practice, combined with limited fiscal resources, exacerbates inflation [23][24]. 4. **Military Capabilities**: Israel's military strength is bolstered by advanced air force capabilities and intelligence operations, which are critical in its strategic planning against Iran [15][19]. 5. **Geopolitical Shifts**: The balance of power in the Middle East is shifting, with countries being pressured to align with either the US or China, affecting their strategic decisions [31][32]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the complex interplay of military, economic, and political factors influencing the Israel-Iran dynamic.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, on various asset classes, especially oil and commodities [1][2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Dynamics**: Initial expectations of rising oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict were tempered by limited Iranian retaliation, leading to a price drop of three to four dollars after an initial spike [4]. Future oil price trends depend on the evolution of the conflict, with extreme scenarios including a full-scale war and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz being deemed unlikely [5]. A neutral expectation suggests high volatility followed by a gradual decline, while an optimistic scenario involves a softening of Iran's stance and potential agreements with the U.S. [5][6]. - **Macroeconomic Environment**: The current macroeconomic environment is uncertain, but there is a general optimism for oil prices in June due to seasonal demand returning and the realization of production increases [6]. The geopolitical premium on oil prices is expected to diminish, but prices are unlikely to return to previous lows [6][8]. - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: Geopolitical tensions are hindering the reduction of inflation expectations in the U.S., which may delay interest rate cuts until September [8]. The high-interest rate environment is expected to suppress global demand, impacting overall economic activity [8]. - **Commodity Market Pressures**: The commodity cycle appears weak, with U.S. inventory levels peaking and a decline in Chinese domestic demand expected to pressure commodity prices [3][12]. The domestic refined oil market is experiencing limited price increases, with a weak outlook for automotive demand [15]. - **Gold Market Trends**: The gold market is driven by geopolitical factors, with central banks, including the People's Bank of China, increasing gold reserves, indicating a strong price trend for gold [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact on Chemical Products**: The conflict is affecting the chemical sector, particularly methanol, where Iran is a major supplier to China. Any escalation in conflict could disrupt methanol shipments [17][18]. The market for polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) is facing oversupply and weak downstream demand, leading to profit compression [20]. - **Historical Context**: The current geopolitical situation is compared to past conflicts, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, suggesting that while volatility may spike, a return to stability is likely [9]. - **Shipping and Logistics**: The conflict has not significantly impacted container shipping, with no immediate effects on major shipping routes [25]. However, the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could affect regional throughput, though the probability remains low [26]. - **Market Sentiment and Strategy**: The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with a focus on monitoring geopolitical developments closely. Strategies may need to be adjusted based on the evolving situation, particularly in the oil and chemical markets [23][28]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of the Middle East conflict on various sectors and the broader economic landscape.

Group 1: Market Impact - Middle Eastern stock markets experienced significant declines due to escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, with Egypt's stock market suffering the most, recording its largest drop in five years [2][3] - The EGX 30 index in Egypt fell by as much as 7.7% before slightly recovering, while the Egyptian pound dropped to a low of 1 USD to 50.6 EGP [3] - Israel's stock index managed to rebound by 0.6%, supported by gains in defense contractor Elbit Systems, which produces military equipment [3][4] Group 2: Oil and Commodity Prices - Oil prices surged amid fears of potential disruptions to Iranian oil exports, with predictions that prices could exceed 120 USD per barrel if Iranian supplies were completely halted [5] - The demand for safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar increased as investors sought refuge from the heightened geopolitical risks [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The Middle Eastern markets were already under pressure from oil price volatility, geopolitical uncertainties, and fiscal strains in several countries, including Saudi Arabia [2][3] - The ongoing conflict has further dampened hopes for a quick recovery in the region's markets and has increased the demand for defensive assets [2][3] Group 4: Strategic Insights - Analysts suggest that the current geopolitical tensions may lead to a shift in market sentiment, with a potential focus on defensive sectors such as oil and precious metals [14][22] - The conflict has raised concerns about the impact on global risk appetite, which could affect various asset classes, including equities [14][22]

行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 2025 年 06 月 15 日 中东冲突升级导致油价宽幅震荡， 关注中东局势变化 看好 ——石油化工行业周报(2025/6/9—2025/6/15) 相关研究 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 - ⚫ 中东冲突升级导致油价宽幅震荡，关注中东局势变化。在以色列对伊朗进行打击之下， 布伦特油价在 6 月 13 日盘中一度冲高至 78.5 美金/桶，创下近五年来的最大单日涨幅。 对于以伊事件的后续影响，我们认为可能存在三种可能：1）若事态可控，双方没有在现 有基础上扩大矛盾，只是进行有限的反击 ...

CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 供应 03 需求 04 期货纸货 月差结构 现货基差 美国 中东 国内 化工需求 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 期货从业资格号：F03128004 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 1 综述 资料来源：隆众资讯，Argus，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点：地缘冲突升级，盘面风险加大 ◆ 我们的逻辑：6月7日-13日，地缘政治因素提振国际原油价格，液化气市场周尾走高。本周，AFEI丙烷指数先稳后扬， 周四、周五受地缘政治紧张局势升级影响，价格快速拉升，分别上涨5.25美元/吨和31美元/吨，收于577美元/吨；美国 MB价格走势类似，收于414.85美元/ ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the chemical industry, with a focus on price increases for specific products and potential investment opportunities in companies like Kangkuan and nitrated cotton [1][2]. Core Insights - The chemical market is experiencing price increases, with notable price adjustments for products such as chlorantraniliprole and Bacillus thuringiensis, indicating a favorable pricing environment [1][2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict, have led to increased oil prices, which in turn affects the chemical sector positively by raising the prices of related products like methanol and strontium carbonate [2][3]. - The report highlights significant events impacting the industry, including the launch of a new production facility by China Pingmei Shenma Group, which could alter the competitive landscape in the nylon industry [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The basic chemical index fell by 0.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24% this week, with strong performances from specific stocks [1][11]. - Brent crude oil averaged $69.45 per barrel, up 6.22% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil averaged $67.89 per barrel, up 7.17% [11]. Key Events - The report notes the successful negotiation of a major potassium fertilizer contract at $346 per ton, indicating a positive outlook for the potassium fertilizer market [1]. - The establishment of a new 100,000 tons/year production facility by China Pingmei Shenma Group marks a significant development in the nylon supply chain [3]. Price Movements - The report tracks price changes for various chemical products, with significant increases noted in sectors such as textile chemical products and compound fertilizers [11][12]. - The report indicates that the prices of methanol and strontium carbonate are gaining attention due to their correlation with rising oil prices [2][11]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in domestic and international demand for chemicals, particularly in the tire and rubber sectors, which are seeing a resurgence in production rates [27][28]. - The AI industry is also highlighted, with significant investments being made, indicating a broader trend of technological integration within the chemical sector [4].

Report Title - Geopolitical Impact: Oils and Fats First Decline Then Rise - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Oils and Oilseeds [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The protein meal and oil markets are influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitics, trade policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships. The markets show volatile trends, and investors should pay attention to short - term and long - term indicators and adopt appropriate trading strategies [6][70][141][142] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis - **Market Trends**: CBOT soybeans fluctuated and declined this week, while domestic soybean meal fluctuated higher. The M2509 contract oscillated around 3050. The spread between buying meal and selling oil promoted the upward movement of Dalian soybean meal [6] - **USDA Export Inspection**: As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547,040 tons, higher than expected. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year was 45,188,245 tons, higher than the same period last year [11] - **Sowing Progress**: As of June 8, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 90%, lower than the market expectation of 91%. The emergence rate was 75%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 68% [23] - **Weather**: Showery weather dominated the central and eastern United States, affecting fieldwork. Some areas had heavy rainfall, while others had light or no rainfall. Temperature differences were significant in different regions [26] - **Oilseed Market**: In May 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record high of 1.392 billion tons. Brazil's soybean export volume in June is expected to be 1.408 billion tons. The USDA maintained its production forecasts for South American soybeans in the 2024/25 season [35][36][38] - **Inventory and Profit**: As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 5.9108 million tons. The domestic spot crushing profit fluctuated around the break - even point, and the futures crushing profit was slightly in the red [46] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean oil mill's soybean opening rate decreased slightly, but remained at a high level. The soybean meal inventory increased, and the contract volume also increased significantly. The opening rate of imported rapeseed oil mills decreased and was at a very low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased [54][63] Part 2: Oil Market Analysis - **Market Trends**: International oils fluctuated within a range this week. US soybean oil fluctuated and closed higher, and Malaysian palm oil first declined then rose. Domestic oils showed a rotation effect, with wide - range fluctuations [70] - **International Oil Information**: China's edible vegetable oil imports in May were 462,000 tons. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May reached an 8 - month high. The US bio - diesel and renewable diesel imports are expected to decrease significantly in 2025 [75][76] - **Weather in Southeast Asia**: Southwest monsoons brought moderate to heavy showers to Thailand and surrounding areas. Malaysia and Indonesia also had widespread showers, which were beneficial to oil palm areas [85] - **Inventory**: As of the 23rd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.1504 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.85% [96] - **Price Relationships**: This week, the overall trend of oils was rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread slightly rebounded. The oil - meal ratios of soybeans and rapeseed continued to decline, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly decreased [113][119] Part 3: Market Outlook - **Seasonal Analysis**: Seasonal indices of various products such as US soybeans, soybean meal, and domestic oils and meals are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from these indices [133][135][137] - **Technical Indicators**: For the main contracts, the short - term indicators of soybean meal are bullish, while the medium - and long - term indicators are entangled. Rapeseed meal's short - and medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicator is entangled. Soybean oil's short - and medium - term indicators are entangled, and the long - term indicator is bearish. Palm oil and rapeseed oil's short -, medium -, and long - term indicators are all entangled [141] - **Fundamentals**: For protein meals, the international market has limited short - term weather speculation space, and the US trade policy is improving. The domestic market may see accelerated inventory accumulation of soybean meal, and the cost - driven effect of Dalian soybean meal is weakened. For oils, international oils are affected by geopolitics and bio - diesel policies, with wide - range fluctuations. Domestic oils follow international trends and should be traded in a band - trading manner [142]

在中东紧张局势冲击下，周五（6月13日）美股三大指数均跌超1%，油价、金价大涨！下面速览昨夜今 晨最新情况。 伊朗导弹回击以色列 据央视新闻报道，当地时间13日，伊朗对以色列发动三波导弹袭击。 伊斯兰革命卫队称对数 十个目标实施"毁灭性精确打击"。以色列国防军则表示，在过去一个小时监测到两波来自伊朗 的导弹袭击， 导弹总数少于100枚 ，其中绝大多数被拦截或在中途坠落。以色列境内有部分 建筑物被导弹拦截产生的碎片击中。 目前， 以色列新一轮打击已开始，伊朗首都德黑兰防空系统被启动。 以方称数百栋受损，1人死亡5 0人受伤 据央视新闻援引以色列媒体的统计显示，仅在以色列中部城市拉马特甘就有九栋建筑物在伊朗 的导弹袭击中被完全摧毁，另有数百栋建筑在袭击中受损，导致至少50人受伤，1人死亡。 哈梅内伊称将彻底摧毁以政权 据央视新闻报道，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊13日晚间通过伊朗官方媒体发表声明，称伊朗武装部 队将采取武力行动，彻底摧毁以色列政权。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间13日，伊朗原子能组织负责人称， 伊朗核计划仍在继续强力推 进。 以色列对伊朗进行新一轮打击 据央视新闻报道，当地时间13日，以空军已开始新一轮针对伊 ...