Group 1 - The dollar index rose by 0.35% to close at 99.874, driven by investor buying at the end of the month, with the exception of the Swiss franc [1] - Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Cambridge Global Payments, noted that Trump's tariff threats against the EU reversed quickly, boosting market risk appetite and reducing negative views on U.S. economic growth, which supported the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated that officials acknowledged the rising risks of economic recession due to increasing inflation and unemployment, suggesting potential challenges in the coming months [1] Group 2 - Market focus is shifting towards upcoming U.S. GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, with concerns that a significant rise in PCE could exacerbate worries about economic stagflation, potentially impacting the dollar negatively [2] - As of the end of the New York trading session, the euro was trading at 1.1294 USD, down from 1.1337 USD the previous day, while the pound was at 1.3470 USD, down from 1.3511 USD [2] - The dollar appreciated against the Japanese yen, trading at 144.84 JPY, up from 144.26 JPY, and against the Canadian dollar at 1.3830 CAD, up from 1.3795 CAD [2]

美联储会议纪要：截至5月会议通胀和失业风险有所上升 金十数据5月29日讯，最新公布的美联储5月会议纪要显示，美联储工作人员在上次会议上承认，未来几 个月他们可能面临"艰难的权衡"，既面临通胀上升，又面临失业率上升。美联储官员对经济衰退风险增 加的预估支撑了这一前景。通胀和失业率同时上升将迫使委员们决定，是优先收紧货币政策来对抗通 胀，还是通过降息来支持经济增长和就业。随着经济适应特朗普政府提出的更高进口税，"几乎所有与 会者都表示，通胀可能比预期更持久"。美联储预计，由于关税的影响，今年的通胀率将"显著"上升， 而就业市场"预计将大幅走弱"，到今年年底，失业率将升至充分就业的长期预期水平以上，并将在两年 内保持这一水平。 ...

Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 227,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous value, better than the market expectation of 230,000[7] - The weekly Redbook retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, down from the previous 5.8%[11] - The New York Fed's weekly economic index was 1.90%, with a 13-week moving average of 2.35%[13] Market Sentiment - The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) had a weekly moving average of 459, influenced by President Trump's proposed 50% tariffs on the EU starting June 1[18] - The Fear and Greed Index remained in the 'Greed' zone, closing at 64 points[16] Global Market Overview - Global equity markets saw a weekly decline of 1.4%, with emerging markets down 0.1% and developed markets down 1.6%[22] - Gold prices increased by 5.3% over the week, while Bitcoin rose by 3.8%[22] U.S. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.6%, while the tech giants (the "Seven") dropped by 2.8%[23] - Large-cap value stocks outperformed small-cap value stocks, with large-cap value (Russell 1000 Value) down 2.6% and small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value) down 3.8%[23] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio (TTM) for the S&P 500 is 26, slightly above the 10-year average of 24.5, indicating a valuation percentile of 75.7%[24] - The highest valuation percentiles among the 11 sectors are Real Estate and Information Technology, both around 89%[24] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a barbell strategy, balancing investments in gold ETFs (GLD) to hedge against tariff uncertainties and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) for growth potential[3]

Group 1 - Less than half of respondents reported that their holiday orders have been restarted, with many reducing order quantities [1][3] - Nearly 60% of respondents indicated that they have not seen importers restart holiday orders since the suspension of high tariffs on Chinese goods [1][3] - Among those who have restarted holiday orders, only about 53% reported that their orders have not shrunk [1][3] Group 2 - Concerns about economic recession and declining consumer spending are prevalent, with 75% of respondents believing consumer spending will decrease, and 53% feeling that this decline has already begun [3] - Retailers expressed ongoing pressure from rising prices and the risk of having to pull certain products from shelves in the next 1 to 3 months [3] - The suspension of high tariffs on Chinese goods has prompted some importers to restart orders, but this is insufficient to eliminate the risk of product shortages in the coming months [3] Group 3 - The timing of holiday order imports remains uncertain due to three factors: weak consumer demand, rising shipping costs, and fluctuating tariff rates [3] - Retailers and suppliers face a dilemma between preparing inventory for the holiday season amid rising shipping costs and uncertain demand signals or waiting for a more favorable timing with the risk of tariffs increasing again [3]

特朗普宣布的高关税政策，让美国的真实情况"岌岌可危"，甚至比美财长所说的还要"凶险"？就连特朗 普自己都意识到，谈判时间所剩无几，接下来确实要尽快发力了。 （特朗普宣布高关税后又暂停） 4月2日，特朗普以他独特的方式掀起了一场前所未有的"关税风暴"，他宣布了一系列"对等"关税，并称 之为"解放日"，仿佛一场宏大的演出正在上演。然而，随着幕布渐渐落下，这场戏的高潮竟是他的暂停 动作：暂缓实施关税90天，同时将税率降至较为温和的10%。 就在最近，特朗普又表示，和各国达成协议的时间所剩无几。目前美国财政部长贝森特已经明确警告， 如果各国不以诚意坐上谈判桌，关税将回到4月2日的水平。 对中国来说，任何贸易协议都需要经过深思熟虑，确保不会损害到核心利益。所以说，其他国家也在仔 细观察中美之间的交锋结果，这将直接影响到他们与美国谈判时的策略。 （和中方谈判的美财长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔） 因此，特朗普发出的警告并不是没有道理，同时也暴露了美方的窘境，各国显然不太重视特朗普设下的 90天关税暂停期，而更关注如何与美方周旋。 只不过，以现实情况看，美方所面临的问题显然不止于此，有数据显示，美国2025年第一季度GDP环 比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk of Trump's trade war persists, and the risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest are rising. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [1]. - The US has been downgraded by Moody's, and the auction of new 20 - year US bonds was cold, showing investors' concerns about the fiscal outlook. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are rising [1]. - Multiple Fed officials expect tariffs to push up prices. Despite the temporary cooling of the US - China trade war, fiscal uncertainty makes the US economic outlook still weak. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index is oscillating downward, and US bond yields are strong at a high level [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating and rebounding, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, oscillating at a high level in the medium - term, and rising in a step - like manner in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals continued to rebound. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.22%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.06%. International gold prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic gold prices such as Shanghai gold and gold T + D all showed an upward trend compared with the previous day and the previous week [1][2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. Silver - **Market Performance**: The price trend of silver is anchored to that of gold. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions were reduced, and iShare silver ETF added positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly. International and domestic silver prices also showed an upward trend compared with the previous day and the previous week [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate ceiling, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25. M2 increased by 0.24 year - on - year. The 10 - year US real bond yield, US bond spreads (3 - month - 10 - year, 2 - year - 10 - year), and various interest rate spreads showed different degrees of change. The US dollar index decreased by 0.42 compared with the previous day and 1.41 compared with the previous week [7][9]. - **Inflation**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change year - on - year and month - on - month. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [9]. - **Economic Growth**: GDP showed a decline both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate remained unchanged, and non - farm payrolls decreased by 0.08 [9]. - **Labor Market**: ADP employment decreased by 8.5, and the number of initial jobless claims remained unchanged. The number of job vacancies decreased by 31.6, and the number of Challenger corporate layoffs decreased by 16.98 [9]. - **Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index decreased by 6, existing home sales decreased by 25, new home sales increased by 10, and new home starts increased by 12.4 [9]. - **Consumption**: Retail sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Personal consumption expenditure increased month - on - month but decreased slightly year - on - year. The personal savings rate decreased by 0.2 [9]. - **Industry**: The industrial production index increased year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Capacity utilization decreased by 0.11 [9]. - **Trade**: Exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, imports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The trade deficit decreased by 1.73 [9]. - **Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index decreased by 0.3, the ISM service PMI index increased by 0.8, the Markit manufacturing PMI index increased by 0.9, and the Markit service PMI index decreased by 2.9 [9]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves increased by 4.98 tons, while the US and the world's remained unchanged [9][11]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The US dollar's share increased by 0.51, the euro's share decreased by 0.2, and the RMB's share remained basically unchanged [11]. - **Gold/ Foreign Exchange Reserves**: Globally, China, and the US all showed an increase in the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves [11]. - **Safe - Haven Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index increased by 21.94, and the VIX index decreased by 0.18 compared with the previous day but increased by 2.86 compared with the previous week [11]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index increased by 0.39 compared with the previous day and 2.71 compared with the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate decreased slightly [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from June 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing a trend of gradual change in the expected interest rate range [12].

新加坡瀚亚投资：美国经济不确定性推动资金流向新兴市场 瑞讯银行：美国国债收益率受财政政策与全球资本行为主导 SMBC日兴证券：日本7月参议院选举结果或影响超长债收益率 汉堡商业银行：法国制造业温和回升德国服务业衰退拖累经济 【机构分析】 新加坡瀚亚投资公司称，美国经济不确定性将促使对新兴市场国家进行多元化投资，多元化投资有助于 分散风险并可能提供更丰富的回报。 （文章来源：新华财经） 瑞讯银行策略师指出，美国国债收益率的未来走势将主要受美国的财政选择以及全球投资者的行为影 响。地缘政治关系的恶化、对美元兴趣的减少以及对美国国债作为避险资产信心的下降等，这些都可能 削弱市场对美国国债的信心。 市场分析称，如果美国实施一项削弱美元价值的计划，可能会导致违约风险增加；这样的行动可能导致 巨大的市场波动，对全球经济造成冲击。如果美元大幅贬值，其幅度和速度可能超过1985年广场协议后 的贬值情况（当时美元在九个月内贬值了25%，三年内几乎贬值了一半）；当前美国的债务规模远超以 往，政策制定者还在计划进一步增加债务，这使得美元贬值的影响更加复杂。 SMBC日兴证券策略师指出，日本7月即将举行的参议院选举可能是影响超长期限 ...

Group 1 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns President Trump to reconsider his proposed tax agenda, suggesting he should make concessions similar to those made on tariffs [1][2] - Summers highlights the simultaneous sell-off of U.S. bonds, stocks, and the dollar as indicators of rising economic vulnerability, stating that a recession could occur soon if current trends continue [1][2] - The U.S. financial markets experienced significant declines, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.09%, the highest in 2023, and major stock indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all falling [2] Group 2 - Summers draws parallels between the current U.S. fiscal crisis risks and the 2022 UK financial crisis, referring to it as a "Liz Truss moment," which could have severe implications for both the U.S. and global economies [2] - He commends Trump's recent retreat on aggressive tariff proposals, indicating that sometimes concessions can be beneficial, despite his usual criticism of the administration [2]

日期 2025 年 5 月 22 日 行业 贵金属日评 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美联储官员发表美国经济悲观预期言论打压美元指数再次跌破 100 关口，媒 体报告以色列准备袭击伊朗核设施而地缘政治担忧重新升温，计价货币因素与避 险需求推动伦敦黄金回到 3300 美元/盎司上方，初步验证伦敦黄金在 3133-3200 美元/盎司的支撑力度；因中美贸易形势边际缓和引发的乐观情绪减退，近期白银 走势落后黄金而伦敦金银比值重返 100 上方。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局 进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America warns that Mexico faces a risk of economic recession, indicating that the peso is overvalued [1] Economic Outlook - The warning from Bank of America suggests a potential downturn in Mexico's economy, which could lead to a depreciation of the peso [1] - The assessment implies that current economic indicators may not support the peso's current valuation [1] Currency Valuation - The bank's analysis indicates that the peso is currently overvalued, which could have implications for investors and the broader market [1] - A reevaluation of the peso's value may be necessary if economic conditions worsen [1]