投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 · 2025 年 7 月 14 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 美关税预期升温，金价强势运行 核心观点 上周海外金价跌破 3300 美元后反弹，国内沪金跌破 770 元后反 弹。7 月 9 日为此前美国和其他国家延期 90 天关税的截至日期，市场 关税预期有所上升，利好金价。技术上，期价企稳回升，再度站上 3300 美元和 60 日均线，预计维持强势运行。白银上周增仓上行明 显，突破前期高位，金银比值随之下行。白银上行是贵金属和有色共 振的结果，短期期价增仓上行明显，突破前期高位，上行动能较强。 拉长周期看，二季度以 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Shanghai Copper**: Today, copper prices stabilized in a fluctuating manner above 78,000, with a slight decline in open interest. At the macro level, copper is affected by US tariffs, resulting in high uncertainty and continuous capital outflows. At the industrial level, after the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the shortage in the spot market decreased. After the futures price dropped, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices plunged in the morning and then stabilized in a fluctuating manner, with continuous decline in open interest. At the macro level, on July 11, the US Department of Commerce launched an anti - circumvention investigation into the anti - dumping and countervailing cases of aluminum tableware imported from China. At the industrial level, after the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the shortage in the spot market decreased. The main futures price reached a high and then pulled back, facing significant pressure. Coupled with the impact of tariffs, aluminum prices dropped significantly. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Shanghai Nickel**: Today, nickel prices first declined and then rose in the morning, stabilizing in a fluctuating manner during the day. At the macro level, copper and aluminum are affected by tariffs and are operating weakly, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector as a whole, while nickel performed relatively strongly today. At the industrial level, the port inventory of upstream nickel ore continued to rise, which is bearish for nickel prices; downstream, the domestic macro expectations are rising, stainless steel is strengthening, and downstream demand may improve, providing support for nickel prices. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate above 120,000 [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 14, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 142,000 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared to July 7 and a decrease of 6,100 tons compared to July 10 [9]. - **Aluminum**: According to Cailian Press and the China Trade Remedy Information Network, on July 11, the US Department of Commerce launched an anti - circumvention investigation into the anti - dumping and countervailing cases of aluminum tableware imported from China, examining whether aluminum tableware made of Chinese - produced aluminum foil imported from Thailand and Vietnam is used to circumvent the current anti - dumping and countervailing measures of the US against Chinese products [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 14, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,050 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,950 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was + 2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,650 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,000 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [24][26][28] - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40]

面对威胁，有人选择屈服，自然也有人决定反抗。美国总统特朗普挥舞着关税大棒，试图通过一系列手段来达到自己的政治和经济目标。然而，他未曾料 到，曾经与中国关系密切的某些国家居然选择了低头，而那些和美国关系一直较为密切的"盟友"们，竟在关税问题上仍旧表现出顽强的抗争。 自特朗普在7月4日宣布将在8月1日起将关税税率提高至10%至20%之间后，越南和柬埔寨成为首批选择向美国"屈服"的国家。特别是越南，竟然将对美关税 降至零，换取美国不对等的20%关税。这一决定令人瞠目结舌，虽然有媒体曝料称越南被特朗普"忽悠"，但若没有动摇，何至于如此呢？ 为了应对东南亚国家的"非合作"，特朗普不断出台新的政策，本周二宣布对进口铜征收50%的关税，并且这一决定将于8月1日生效。美国商务部长霍华德·卢 特尼克为此辩解称，铜作为关键原材料，广泛应用于基础电网、建筑工程、汽车制造和军事装备等领域，因此"把铜带回家"是美国必须采取的措施。 然而，这一政策的实施立刻导致了欧洲铜股的下跌，同时沪铜也出现了下跌，而美铜却逆势上涨。显然，这场"抢铜大战"是经过精心策划的。摩根大通的首 席执行官杰米·戴蒙警告称，关税政策将导致通货膨胀，经济形势"令人担 ...

7月9日，特朗普突然宣布对巴西加征50%的进口关税。这一消息令人震惊，因为在今年4月，特朗普就曾针对全球范围内的贸易进行加税时，巴西的关税仅 为10%。然而，现在巴西面临的关税跃升至全球最高的50%，这一突如其来的决定让全球经济界议论纷纷，许多人纷纷猜测特朗普此举的真正动机是什么。 更加引人注目的是巴西总统卢拉的反应。他不仅坚决拒绝了特朗普的加税提案，而且直言不讳地表示，巴西完全不依赖美国，照样能够生存下去。这番话显 示了卢拉不畏强权、敢于直面挑战的姿态，让全球媒体纷纷将目光聚焦于巴西和特朗普之间的复杂博弈。 实际上，特朗普的关税政策最初主要针对那些与美国有贸易顺差的国家，他希望通过加税手段来减少美国的贸易逆差。过去15年里，美国与巴西之间的贸易 顺差已超过4000亿美元，意味着美国大量商品以零关税进入巴西市场，赚取了丰厚利润。然而，现在特朗普将巴西的进口关税从10%提高到50%，这一调整 几乎使巴西的进口成本暴涨，成为全球贸易中最高的税率。这使得全球贸易界一时困惑不解，特朗普到底是想达成什么样的目的？ 从背后的动机来看，特朗普此举很大程度上带有明显的私怨。特朗普与巴西前总统博尔索纳罗的关系非常亲密，两人在政 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that ongoing uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies may lead to a reduction of 1 billion euros in German exports to the U.S. each month [1]

Core Viewpoints - The article highlights a significant increase in copper prices due to Trump's unexpected announcement of a 50% tariff on imported electrolytic copper, effective from August 1, which exceeded market expectations [3][5][6] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, experienced a strong performance, with COMEX gold rising by 0.71% and silver by 5.22% [2][4] Copper Market Analysis - The announcement of the 50% tariff on imported electrolytic copper has led to a substantial rise in COMEX copper prices, with a maximum increase of over 15% during the week [5][6] - As of now, the U.S. has imported over 700,000 tons of electrolytic copper, with expectations to reach 900,000 tons by the time the tariff is implemented, matching last year's total imports [3][7] - The market anticipates that the tariff will redirect copper shipments to Asia or China, potentially increasing pressure on China's electrolytic copper inventory [7][8] - The SHFE copper price has faced downward pressure, testing the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton, while the market expects a significant increase in copper imports to China [7][8] Precious Metals Market Review - The precious metals market saw high volatility, with COMEX gold and silver trading within specific ranges, driven by increased macroeconomic uncertainty and expectations of interest rate cuts [4][23] - Silver prices surged due to tight supply-demand dynamics, reaching levels not seen since 2011, influenced by potential short squeeze risks [4][23] - The article notes that the gold-silver ratio has been declining, indicating stronger performance of silver relative to gold [25] Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 39,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 436 million ounces [40] - The positioning data shows that non-commercial long positions in gold increased, while short positions also rose, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [45]

今日国内贵金属市场延续强势格局。沪银主力合约上周五夜盘首度突破9200元/千克关口后，今日继续 攀升，收盘大涨2.11%报9207元/千克，刷新历史峰值；沪金同步走强，收涨1.06%报781.4元/克。关税政 策波澜再起，美联储独立性受到干预，贵金属表现偏强，银价取得关键技术突破，关注关税谈判进展和 美联储政策动向。 关税惊雷引爆市场，避险情绪急速升温 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发布致墨西哥和欧 盟的信件，宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税。首创期货 指出，受美联储政策、贸易紧张局势和供应缺口收紧的推动，国际银价短线飙升至39美元，为2011年以 来最高水平。美联储7月会议纪要显示，2025年降息将获得强劲支撑，美国国债收益率大幅走低，提振 白银。特朗普对14个国家激进的关税升级引发了避险资金流入白银和黄金市场。 国信期货指出，本轮突破行情或受关税冲突激化驱动，特朗普宣布对墨西哥、欧盟加征30%关税后，墨 方迅速斥责为"不公待遇"并启动烧碱反倾销调查，政策对抗或再度升级；与此同时中东局势持续紧绷， 伊朗核协议谈判陷 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Trump's tariff turmoil has resurfaced, but the overall tariff pressure has been reduced, leading to strong uncertainty in the policy. Most Fed officials still believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the end of the year, and the impact of Trump's tariffs on prices remains uncertain [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Nickel ore prices have weakened, stainless - steel production has declined, spot inventories are high, steel mills' willingness to replenish raw materials is weak, nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and the cost pressure on nickel - iron plants is still prominent. The power market has no significant changes, and nickel sulfate is relatively stable. Pure nickel continues the de - stocking trend, but the spot market is cold, and the premium has dropped significantly [3]. - Future outlook: Supply increases month - on - month, demand decreases month - on - month, and nickel prices lack fundamental drivers. In the short term, focus on macro risks. The nickel price may fluctuate weakly [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 120,540 yuan/ton on July 7, 2025, to 121,390 yuan/ton on July 11, 2025, an increase of 850 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from 15,177 dollars/ton to 15,198 dollars/ton, an increase of 21 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 3,708 tons to 206,178 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 390 tons to 20,442 tons. Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, and Russian nickel premium increased by 250 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. High - nickel pig iron average price decreased by 10 yuan/nickel point to 912 yuan/nickel point, and stainless - steel inventory increased by 1.47 tons to 93.1 tons [4]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines dropped from 52 dollars/wet ton to 51 dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia dropped from 46.9 dollars/wet ton to 46.4 dollars/wet ton. Due to rainfall disturbances, the supply shortage at the mine end has persisted. With the long - term pressure on nickel - iron, some nickel - iron plants have reduced production and carried out maintenance, alleviating the shortage of nickel ore and causing the high - level price to weaken [5]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 907.5 yuan/nickel point to 905 yuan/nickel point. In June, China's nickel - iron production was expected to be about 24,550 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82%, and 24,540 tons in July, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. In May, domestic nickel - iron imports were about 848,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.19% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Indonesia's nickel - iron production in June was 136,800 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.51% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.26%, and 134,700 nickel tons in July, a year - on - year increase of 28.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%. The stainless - steel production has shrunk significantly, the inventory is at an absolute high level, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish nickel - iron is weak. The cost pressure on nickel - iron plants is increasing, and many plants have reduced production. If the production continues to shrink, it may drive the price to stop falling and stabilize [6]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose slightly from 27,400 yuan/ton to 27,420 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. In June, the metal output of nickel sulfate was about 24,795 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.68% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The output of ternary materials increased to about 64,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.95% and a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. As of July 4, the downstream nickel - sulfate inventory days increased to 13 days, and the upstream inventory days decreased to about 8 days. The high inventory may suppress the material plants' replenishment intensity, and the nickel - sulfate price may be difficult to rise further [7]. 3. Macro and Fundamental Analysis - Macro: Trump's tariff turmoil has resurfaced, with most countries seeing a decline in tariff rates compared to April. The Fed believes it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the end of the year and emphasizes observing the impact of tariffs on the supply chain [3][8]. - Fundamental: In July, the domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, and the smelter production increased slightly month - on - month. The expected production of electrolytic nickel in July was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 1.25%. The export profit turned negative, which may suppress the domestic inventory de - stocking [8]. 4. Terminal Consumption - From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 135,000, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 6.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new - energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may drag down demand, and the export of new - energy vehicles to Europe is expected to weaken. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US will cancel subsidies for new - energy vehicle purchases after September 30. The domestic policy will focus on the automotive industry, and the demand is not expected to increase significantly [9]. 5. Inventory - The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six places is 39,173 tons, a decrease of 1,144 tons from the previous period. SHFE inventory is 20,442 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 399 tons, and LME nickel inventory is 206,178 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,708 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 226,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,318 tons [10]. 6. Industry News - Indonesia's approved nickel - ore production in 2025 reached 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [12]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd.'s first - phase 40,000 - ton nickel - based material production line in Morocco has been fully put into operation, and the base has a complete industrial - chain layout [12]. - Zhejiang New Era Zhongneng Technology Co., Ltd.'s project of producing electrowon nickel - cobalt in a sulfuric - acid system has been successfully put into production [12]. - Indonesian ITMG acquired a 9.62% stake in a nickel - mining enterprise [12]. 7. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventories, nickel - ore port inventories, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventories [14][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand. Industrial inventories are accumulating but still at a low level, and consumption expectations are positive. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,639.50 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract was 110 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 6,478 lots to 172,204 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper increased by 6,397 lots to - 1,607 lots [2]. - LME copper inventory increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons, and the cancelled warrants increased by 25 tons to 40,975 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 34,379 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,455 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market 1 copper spot was 78,520 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. The CIF price of Shanghai electrolytic copper (bill of lading) was 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper increased by 2.5 dollars to 45.5 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was 55 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 21.57 dollars/ton, down 20.62 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters increased by 0.46 dollars to - 43.79 dollars/thousand tons. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,800 yuan/metal ton, down 210 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 69,500 yuan/metal ton, down 210 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee in the north was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The production of refined copper was 1.254 billion tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products increased by 34,000 tons to 464,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan to 55,290 yuan/ton; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of copper products increased by 1.5 million tons to 209.6 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure increased by 63.169 billion yuan to 203.986 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development increased by 85.0427 billion yuan to 362.3384 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly production of integrated circuits increased by 68,000 pieces to 4,235,000,000 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper decreased by 0.29% to 10.25%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.04% to 9.33%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month increased by 0.0011% to 11.93%, and the put - call ratio of the at - the - money option decreased by 0.0213 to 1.66 [2]. Industry News - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the latest tariff measures announced by US President Trump have confused the inflation outlook, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's proposed interest rate cuts [2]. - Data from the National Information Center showed that in the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple fields such as consumption, investment, industrial production, and business operations in China continued to improve. The offline consumption heat index increased by 25.5% year - on - year, the online retail sales of major household appliances increased by 28.0%, the national project winning bid amount increased by 23.4% month - on - month, and the business vitality indexes of start - up enterprises and technology - innovative enterprises increased by 38.3% and 28.2% year - on - year respectively [2]. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, and the effects of the implemented monetary policy will further emerge. In the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to the domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operations [2]. - Yuyuantan Tian published an article pointing out that in 2025, the global trade pattern is at a critical turning point. The unpredictability of US tariff policies has created uncertainty but also promoted the global trade system to develop towards true diversification. Although the US is still an important participant in global trade, its influence is gradually weakening, and developing countries and emerging economies, especially those in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, are becoming new growth points in global trade [2]. - Fu Bingfeng, the executive vice - president and secretary - general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that as of now, the proportion of new energy vehicles in China has reached 10%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 16 million this year, and the proportion of new vehicle sales is expected to exceed 50% [2].

Gold Market - Last week, gold saw a significant rebound with a maximum weekly increase of nearly 3%, indicating a positive trend [1] - The rise in gold prices is a direct response to Trump's tariff policies, which have heightened global trade risks and increased safe-haven demand [1] - Trump's deadline for reaching tariff agreements with various countries has been postponed to August 1, with strong resistance from EU leaders, suggesting potential backlash [1] - Although tariffs have temporarily boosted U.S. tariff revenues, they may lead to greater long-term issues, including a contraction in U.S. manufacturing, which has been shrinking for four consecutive months [1] - Analysts predict that Trump's tax cuts will increase the deficit by trillions, while tariffs may raise inflation expectations, potentially driving more funds into the gold market [1] - Technically, gold has formed a bullish continuation pattern, with prices above the moving average system and strong upward momentum [1] Oil Market - Last week, oil prices experienced a volatile upward trend, although the overall performance remained weak [2] - Seasonal demand has provided some short-term support for oil prices, with U.S. refinery utilization rates reaching 94.7% as of July 4, indicating increased processing to meet summer travel needs [2] - Despite short-term demand increases, the long-term outlook for oil prices remains challenged by a persistent oversupply, with global oil supply expected to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year, while demand is only projected to grow by 700,000 barrels per day [2] - For next year, global oil demand growth is forecasted at 720,000 barrels per day, while supply growth is expected to be 1.3 million barrels per day, indicating a continued oversupply issue [2] - Technically, oil has formed a bullish pattern, with prices above long-term moving averages and potential for new highs in the short term [2] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines and increases, likely adjusting from previous gains [3] - The hourly chart indicates a converging pattern, suggesting the potential formation of a symmetrical triangle, with a likelihood of new highs in the short term [3] - Support is noted at the $5.45 level for copper prices [3]