商家如何应对成本压力？ 随着"关税""不确定性"和"衰退"等术语在一季度财报电话会议上越来越频繁地出现，一批美国零售企业 将于本周公布的财报将进一步揭示关税背景变化对经济的影响。 在此之前，中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦取得重要成果，外界对美国总统特朗普的关税将使经济陷入 衰退的担忧有所减轻，然而在特朗普与沃尔玛在涨价问题上针锋相对后，零售商的处境受到了更多关 注。 过去一周，沃尔玛的财报引发广泛关注。这家全美最大商超警告，消费者应该为更高的价格做好准备。 随后特朗普在社交媒体平台上发帖称，沃尔玛应该"吃下关税"，而不是转嫁因提高关税而产生的成本。 特朗普政府降低关税的新举措可能会缓解人们的担忧。目前尚不清楚消费者支出是否会改善，尤其是在 商品消费领域。行业统计显示，目前美国的关税仍高于几十年来的水平，更昂贵的进口价格可能会让买 家望而却步。经纪商Global X投资策略主管Scott Helfstein表示："消费者仍在消费，但无法与去年那种 盛宴相比。" 值得注意的是，密歇根大学发布的最新调查显示，美国消费者信心指数从上个月的52.2降至50.8，连续 第五个月下跌。 分项指标显示，由于担心收入下降，个人财 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lawmakers in Washington are advancing a large-scale tax cut plan, which poses a risk of a "fiscal disaster" if the economy enters a recession [1] Economic Impact - The current deficit is 6.4% of GDP, equating to $2.4 trillion. In the event of a recession, this figure could balloon to $4 trillion [1] - The cost assessment of the current Republican tax cut proposal is based on the assumption of continued economic growth [1] Historical Context - In the past five to six economic recessions, budget deficits have significantly worsened due to declining tax revenues and increased government spending [1]

CEI的四大组成部分包括：非农就业人数、剔除转移支付的个人收入、制造与贸易销售额、以及工业生 产。其中，工业生产在4月基本持平，是对指数拉动最弱的组成部分。 此外，滞后经济指数(LAG)在4月增长0.3%，至119.3点，扭转3月的0.1%跌幅。在过去六个月内(2024年 10月至2025年4月)，LAG累计上涨0.8%，也扭转了前一阶段(2024年4月至10月)的0.8%跌势，反映出经 济部分后周期因素出现复苏迹象。 智通财经APP获悉，美国经济咨商会5月最新发布数据显示，美国2025年4月领先经济指数(LEI)大幅下 跌1.0%，降至99.4点，为自2023年3月以来的最大月度跌幅。此前3月数据也由原先的-0.7%向下修正 至-0.8%。 数据显示，截至2025年4月的六个月内，LEI累计下降2.0%，与前一阶段(2024年4月至10月)持平，表明 下行趋势持续。 美国经济咨商会商业周期指标高级经理Justyna Zabinska-La Monica指出："本次LEI的月度跌幅是自2023 年3月以来最为剧烈，当时市场普遍担忧经济将陷入衰退，尽管最终并未成真。大多数指标组件均出现 恶化，尤其是消费者商业预 ...

惠誉：加拿大情绪暴跌预示经济衰退。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson suggests that investors should buy U.S. stocks on dips, as the U.S.-China trade truce has reduced the likelihood of an economic recession [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The downgrade by Moody's has led to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, surpassing 4.5%, which may increase the likelihood of a stock market pullback [1] - After the credit rating downgrade, S&P 500 futures fell by 1.2% on Monday [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Moody's cited the persistent expansion of the U.S. budget deficit without signs of narrowing as the reason for the downgrade [1] - The downgrade has reignited concerns about the attractiveness of U.S. assets amid ongoing global trade uncertainties [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson suggests investors should buy U.S. stocks that have declined due to last week's credit rating downgrade, as the trade truce with China reduces the likelihood of an economic recession [1] - Following Moody's downgrade, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed the critical 4.5% level, increasing the likelihood of a market pullback; however, Wilson advocates for buying on dips [1] - The S&P 500 futures fell by 1.2% on Monday after Moody's downgraded the U.S. debt rating, citing the expanding budget deficit with no signs of narrowing [1] Group 2 - Moody's is the last major U.S. rating agency to downgrade the country's credit rating, following Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings in previous years [4] - Year-to-date, the performance of U.S. benchmark stock indices has lagged behind international peers, recovering only after a temporary trade agreement between the U.S. and China [4] - Wilson notes that the earnings season appears to have concluded without significant impact from tariff uncertainties, which is a positive sign for the market [4] Group 3 - Wilson believes that recent upward revisions in corporate profits indicate further potential for stock market gains, even if trade data may appear weak in the coming months [4] - Wilson acknowledges the potential for market volatility to persist into the second half of the year but remains optimistic due to the trade agreement with China [4] - Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin anticipates that the "seven giants" tech stocks will outperform the S&P 500 index amid strong earnings trends, despite significant price declines this year [4]

Group 1 - The latest silver futures closing price is 8133 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 0.35% and a trading volume of 679,297 contracts [1] - The Shanghai silver spot price on May 16 was quoted at 8092 yuan/kg, indicating a discount of 41 yuan/kg compared to the futures price [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet stated that if countries do not reach a trade agreement within a 90-day tariff suspension period, tariff rates will quickly revert to "equivalent" levels [1] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, which influenced precious metals to open higher [2] - Market speculation about future monetary easing has increased following Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks on adjusting the overall policy framework, despite resilient U.S. economic data [2] - International gold prices are expected to find strong support around 3000 USD/oz, maintaining a buy-on-dip strategy [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 5月19日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 755.86 | 0.53% | 354299 | 209904 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，5月19日上海黄金现货价格报价755.86元/克，相较于期货主力价格（753.20元/克）升水2.66 元/克。 美国4月零售销售月率上升0.1%，预期为持平，前值由上升1.4%修正为上升1.5%。美国4月零售额增长 乏力，表明在关税实施前家庭提前购买汽车带来的推动作用消退，且在经济前景不确定的背景下家庭削 减了其他支出，人们对经济增长放缓的担忧正在加剧。此外，美国4月PPI同比增长2.4%，低于预期和 前值，增速连续第三个月下降，且创去年9月以来新低。4月PPI环比下滑0.5%，降幅创五年最大。上周 美国首次申请失业救济金的人数保持稳定，裁员率维持在低位。 当地时间5月15日，美联储主席鲍威尔在第二届托马斯·劳巴赫研究会议上发表讲话。鲍威尔称，未来通 胀可能更加波动，美国可能正在进入一 ...

此外，美联储背后是金融资本，他们与特朗普为首的"MAGA派"天然存在对立。在2011年，美国爆发了"占领华尔街"运动，很快从发生地纽约蔓延到全美多 地。虽然运动最终失败，但却对美国产生了深远影响，因为这是美国民众第一次清楚意识到，他们身上还有华尔街为首的"金融资本"这座大山，而美国的传 统掌权力量"建制派"与其关系很深。因此，美国民众有了推翻"建制派"，推选一个能代表自己的人上台的想法。在2018年，美国民众如愿以偿，让喊出"让 美国再次伟大"的特朗普入主白宫。 然而，特朗普和他的"MAGA派"并没有真才实干，他们能不进行市场调研，不准备预案，就直接发动"关税战"。显然，国际社会都清楚意识到特朗普政府非 常不靠谱，大量资金已经开始流出美国。鉴于白宫政策的不稳定性，以及特朗普阵营与金融资本的对立性，美联储自然不会听从特朗普的要求。而且，最好 的降息时机已经错过了。在2024年，美联储就实施了连续降息，因为当时还有操作空间。但特朗普上台后，态度反复无常，政策也是"朝令夕改"，这让鲍威 尔完全不敢有动作。而且，即便美联储什么举措都没做，美元指数也跌破了100。有观点指出，原本国际金融界普遍认为，美债超过50万亿美元 ...