Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of the year, international gold prices have been continuously rising, leading to record high gold prices in RMB terms, driven by both long-term favorable factors and geopolitical events [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On January 23, several gold retailers reported that the price of pure gold jewelry exceeded 1500 RMB per gram, with some brands reaching 1548 RMB per gram, an increase of over 50 RMB from the previous day [1]. - In January, the London spot gold price rose from around 4300 USD per ounce to over 4960 USD per ounce on January 23, marking a nearly 15% increase within the month [1]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot gold price and the main contract of gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange both surpassed 1110 RMB per gram on January 23, setting new records [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent rise in domestic and international gold prices is supported by long-term favorable factors such as central bank gold purchases and strong investment demand [1]. - Geopolitical factors have also contributed to increased safe-haven investments, further driving up gold prices [1].

退路已经完全被切断，如今唯有背水一战！这一次，欧洲下定决心，不再选择隐忍，而是迎来了势在必行的反击。早已酝酿多时的反制风暴，正悄然在政治 和经济的暗流中成形，其目标直指跨大西洋关系中最为敏感的神经。特朗普政府刚刚宣布实施新一轮关税政策，全球立即为之震动。这份最低10%、最高可 达25%的征税方案，毫不掩饰其锋芒——专门瞄准那些在格陵兰岛问题上未作让步的欧盟国家。此举已经远超普通贸易摩擦，华盛顿实质上撕毁了既有谈判 框架，将经济手段直接武器化，迫使欧洲在主权与市场之间作出极为艰难的抉择。 从地缘政治角度看，格陵兰岛的重要性不言而喻。美国多家战略研究机构早已指出，这座岛屿在北极地区扮演不可替代的角色，无论在情报监控、危机应 对，还是紧急部署方面，都是关键支点。它不仅是全天候监测极地环境变化的前哨，还为区域搜救行动、军事调动提供重要支持。无论是导弹预警系统布 设，还是远程侦察网络建设，甚至在北极主导权争夺中，格陵兰岛都对美国战略布局至关重要。因此，美国将其视为国家战略资产中的核心，其得失直接影 响全球力量平衡的敏感神经。 据英国《金融时报》披露，欧盟高层于18日召开紧急闭门会议，决定重新激活去年未曾启用的报复性关税 ...

开年以来，国际金价持续上涨。受此带动，以人民币计价的黄金价格屡创新高。1月23日，多家品牌金 店的足金饰品报价突破每克1500元关口，一些品牌的足金饰品报价达每克1548元，较前一日单克上涨超 50元，再创历史新高。 华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇表示，近期国内外金价的上涨，既有长期利好因素的支撑，比 如央行购金和投资需求旺盛，也有地缘政治等因素带来更多避险资金进入，共同推动金价走高。 1月，伦敦现货黄金从每盎司4300美元附近一路上扬，23日盘中一度超过每盎司4960美元，月内涨幅近 15%。受此影响，上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格、上海期货交易所上市的黄金期货主力合约23日盘中均 突破每克1110元，创下新高。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic futures market saw significant gains on January 23, with platinum rising over 8%, silver over 7%, synthetic rubber over 6%, and ethylene glycol, lithium carbonate, and tin over 4% [7][8] - In contrast, crude oil and European shipping indices fell by more than 1% [7][8] Group 2 - Overnight market in London saw spot gold surge past $4900 per ounce, reaching a new high, while COMEX silver futures rose by 4.05% and SHFE gold increased by 1.53% [5][9] - Geopolitical tensions have escalated, with the U.S. declaring intentions for "full entry" into Greenland and threatening Europe with repercussions if they sell off U.S. debt assets [5][9] - Analysts suggest that the uncertainty from military threats and asset constraints may lead to a short-term bullish trend for precious metals [5][9]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周四油价回落，其中 WTI 3 月合约收盘下跌 1.26 美元至 59.36 美 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/桶，跌幅 2.08%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘下跌 1.18 美元至 64.06 美元/桶，跌幅 1.81%。SC2603 以 436.6 元/桶收盘，下跌 9.7 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅为 2.17%。EIA 报告显示，截至 1 月 16 日当周原油库存 | | | | 增加 360 万桶，远超分析师预测的 110 万桶增幅，也高于美国石 | | | | 油协会前日报告的 300 万桶增量。汽油库存触及 2021 年以来最高 | | | 原油 | 水平，出口量下降逾 50 万桶/日。乌克兰安全局的无人机袭击了 | 震荡 | | | 位于俄罗斯克拉斯诺达尔边疆区的塔曼石油天然气码头，该港口 | | | | 是黑海地区最大的港口之一，负责石油、天然气和氨的转运。其 | | | | 石油产品和液化气储罐容量超过 100 万立方米。当前油价表现仍 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, reaching a new high of $4900 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and strong economic data from the U.S. [2][5] Economic Data - U.S. Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 4.4%, marking the fastest growth in two years [2][5] - Core PCE inflation remains stable at 2.9%, with the November PCE price index showing a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month rise of 0.2% [2][5] Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. has announced a "full entry" into Greenland, asserting military access rights and threatening Europe with retaliation if they sell off U.S. debt [2][5] - The situation in Greenland has become a focal point, raising concerns about European sovereign funds selling U.S. assets, indicating a potential loss of confidence in U.S. dollar assets [2][5] Market Reactions - Despite strong economic data, the U.S. dollar is showing a weak trend due to geopolitical uncertainties, which is contributing to the bullish sentiment in gold [2][5] - The ongoing conflicts in Venezuela and the unresolved situation in Iran are also contributing to heightened risk aversion, sustaining interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [2][5]

Group 1: Macro - The current macro - environment features global geopolitical turmoil reshaping the order, domestic structural differentiation, and precise policy - driven stable growth. The old US - led global system is accelerating towards a fragmented end, with the failure of multilateral order and intensified great - power competition becoming the norm [1]. - The US and Europe's game over Greenland has escalated, with the US threatening tariffs on 8 European countries and the EU responding with counter - lists and freezing trade agreements. Swedish and Danish pension funds have cleared US bonds, impacting the traditional safe - haven status of US bonds [1]. - The US core PCE物价指数 in November 2025 met market expectations, indicating no significant rebound in inflation. The Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rate in the January meeting, and may keep rates stable until Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1]. - Japan's central bank policy is highly concerned. It is expected to maintain the current interest rate and hawkish tone, and Governor Ueda may explain this as an assessment of last year's interest - rate hikes [1]. - China's economy in 2025 ended with a pattern of "strong supply, stable external demand, and weak domestic demand". In 2026, the GDP growth target is expected to be 4.5% - 5%, and expanding domestic demand is the core of stable growth [1]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - Overseas, the strong US economic data boosts market risk appetite and depresses interest - rate cut expectations, but the US dollar index lacks upward momentum due to factors like Nordic pension funds' withdrawal [2]. - Domestically, the central bank's unexpected 900 billion yuan MLF operation and the indication of room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts in the year push up the US dollar - RMB exchange rate in the short term, but the expected high corporate settlement willingness may lead to a subsequent decline [2]. - In the future, the RMB has a solid foundation for trend - based appreciation. Its appreciation space depends on the US dollar index and the central bank's exchange - rate control orientation [2]. - Short - term strategy: Export enterprises can lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [3]. Group 3: Stock Index - The previous trading day saw a differentiated performance in the stock index. The large - cap index was weak in the morning and fluctuated in the afternoon, while the small - and medium - cap index fluctuated throughout the day. Except for the Shanghai 50 index, other indices closed up [4]. - Short - term, the index is in an adjustment phase with significant style differentiation, but the medium - and long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Small - and medium - cap indices are expected to outperform [4]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, the bond market was lackluster and oscillated. The trading - oriented funds retreated, and the market is cautious about the short - term bond market space [5]. - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, and attention should be paid to whether the capital interest rate will decline and stabilize at a low level [5]. - Medium - term, hold long positions; short - term, stay on the sidelines [5]. Group 5: Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping index (Europe line) futures market showed a differentiated trend, with near - month contracts under pressure and far - month contracts relatively resilient [5][6][7]. - Bullish factors for far - month contracts include the uncertainty of the Red Sea route's full resumption and potential rush - shipping demand in March [6]. - Bearish factors include the decline in spot freight rates and the reduced risk of short - term trade frictions [6]. - Strategy: Trend traders can conduct range operations, short near - month contracts at the upper end of the range and go long at the lower end, and be cautious about chasing far - month contracts [7]. Group 6: Commodities - New Energy Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate futures contract closed up, with increased trading volume and open interest. The spot market showed general performance, with rising prices of lithium ore and lithium salts [10]. - The addition of new registered brands on the GZEX is expected to strengthen the basis of lithium carbonate spot and narrow the spread between contracts [10]. - Before early February, consider going long on dips; before the Spring Festival, reduce positions to avoid risks [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The main industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts showed different trends. The industrial silicon spot market was general, while the photovoltaic industry chain spot market weakened [11][12][14]. - In April, the rush - export market in the photovoltaic and organic silicon fields is expected to drive up the demand for industrial silicon. For polysilicon, the industry is mainly focused on destocking [14]. - Strategy: Go long on industrial silicon on dips and short polysilicon on rallies. Reduce positions before the Spring Festival [14]. Group 7: Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price fluctuated narrowly at a key level. The inventory of copper in major exchanges showed different changes, and the spot market had general trading [16][17]. - The capital inflow into the chemical and agricultural product sectors was obvious, and the non - ferrous sector was weak. The copper price faced resistance at 100,000 yuan [18]. - Strategy: Do not open new positions above 100,000 yuan; hold existing long positions in the 90,000 - 95,000 yuan range, and adjust positions flexibly in the 95,000 - 100,000 yuan range [19]. Aluminum - The aluminum price showed a certain degree of volatility. The supply of aluminum increased, and the demand weakened before the Spring Festival, with inventory accumulation [20][21]. - Short - term, the aluminum price will oscillate; medium - and long - term, it is expected to be strong. Pay attention to dips for entry [21]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillated narrowly during the day and was strong at night. The supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was weak, with inventory accumulation [22]. - Short - term, it will oscillate weakly. Aggressive investors can try short positions lightly, and holders can sell call options [23]. Nickel - Stainless Steel - The nickel - stainless steel market oscillated at night. The supply of nickel ore was affected by the rainy season, and the demand for stainless steel was supported by inventory reduction [24]. - Be cautious about the high - level callback of stainless steel [24]. Tin - The tin price oscillated widely during the day and was strong at night. The supply was affected by the slow resumption in Myanmar and Indonesia, and the demand was in the off - season [25]. - It will maintain high - level wide - range oscillation. Be cautious about entering the market [25]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply was stimulated by high prices, and the demand lacked new drivers, with inventory changes [25]. - It will oscillate, and selling options to collect premiums is recommended [25]. Group 8: Commodities - Oils and Fats and Feeds Oilseeds - The external soybean market is expected to continue to be weak, while the domestic soybean meal market may stop falling at a low valuation. The potential improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations may change the pricing of rapeseed meal [27][28]. - Strategy: Reduce short positions in rapeseed meal [28]. Oils and Fats - The domestic oils and fats market showed a short - term weakening trend at night, but the overall upward trend remained. Pay attention to small - scale corrections [28]. - Palm oil is the strongest in the sector, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil may narrow [28][30]. Group 9: Commodities - Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur fuel oil supply tension is easing, and the demand is mainly concentrated in the bunkering market. The long - term downward trend remains, but there is short - term support [31][32]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The crack spread remains low [33]. Asphalt - The asphalt market oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the futures price was affected by geopolitical factors. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory increased [34]. - Strategy: Pay attention to positive spreads, 03 basis, and crack spread long positions [34]. Group 10: Commodities - Precious Metals Platinum and Palladium - The prices of platinum and palladium rose at night. The market is affected by international political uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and challenges to the Fed's independence [36][37]. - In the medium - and long - term, the bull market foundation for platinum and palladium remains. Be vigilant about the opening gap [38]. Gold and Silver - The prices of gold and silver reached new highs. The market is affected by the weakening of the US dollar system and geopolitical risk aversion [38]. - The precious metals market is in a bullish pattern. Gold has support at 4650, and silver has support at 86.5. Consider long positions on dips [39]. Group 11: Commodities - Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp and offset paper futures prices oscillated strongly at night. The pulp price is affected by spot market conditions, port inventory, and European inventory [40]. - Strategy: Observe or go long on dips, and close short positions [40][41]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose. The supply was moderately low, and the demand was weakening, especially in the PDH sector. The inventory was changing [41][42]. - Be cautious about the upward risk [42]. PTA - PX - The PX and PTA futures prices rose strongly. The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply is affected by device shutdowns. The demand for polyester is weakening [43][44][45]. - The PTA processing fee is expected to rise, but the space is limited. Wait for dips to go long [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The ethylene glycol futures price oscillated strongly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening due to the decline in terminal orders. The inventory is at a certain level [46][47]. - The market is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains [47]. PP - The polypropylene futures price rose. The short - term supply is reduced due to device maintenance, and the demand has some support, but it is expected to decline seasonally [48][49]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [49]. PE - The polyethylene futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase after device restart, and the demand will face seasonal decline [50][51]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The supply of pure benzene decreased and the demand increased, and the inventory showed changes. The supply of styrene was affected by unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction [51][52]. - Pay attention to the export increment of styrene, crude oil fluctuations, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials [52]. Urea - The urea futures price rose. The supply is in an over - capacity stage, and the price is supported by export policies. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation [52][53]. - Hold long positions [53]. Glass - Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has limited elasticity. The inventory is at a high level [54]. - The glass futures price rose. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory needs to be digested [55]. Propylene - The propylene futures price rose. The supply decreased and the demand increased this week, and the price was supported by cost and supply - demand factors [55][56][57]. - Pay attention to geopolitical and device - related changes [57]. Group 12: Commodities - Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices oscillated at a low level. The production recovery is slowing, the consumption of rebar is fluctuating, and the inventory is in a certain state. The cost end has both support and pressure [57][58][59]. - The short - term price will oscillate, with the rebar 2605 contract in the 3050 - 3200 yuan range and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the 3200 - 3350 yuan range [57]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price recovered. The iron - making production is affected by safety inspections, the inventory is increasing, and the supply and demand are in a certain state [57][58][59]. - The price has fallen to release the premium, and the downward space is not extremely pessimistic [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke futures prices rose. The coking coal production is increasing, the import is changing, and the coking enterprises' profits are shrinking. The steel production may be affected by an accident [59][60][61]. - The coking coal price may face downward pressure in the medium - and long - term if certain conditions are met [61]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures prices rebounded. The supply and demand are weakening, and the inventory is changing. The price is supported by cost [61][62]. - They will oscillate at a low level [62]. Group 13: Commodities - Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig futures price rose. The spot price is changing, with the supply being strong and the demand being weak. The second - fattening may support the price at a low level [64]. - The 03 contract may oscillate upward [64]. Cotton - The cotton futures price showed different trends. The domestic cotton supply is increasing moderately, and the demand is supported by spinning capacity expansion. The price is affected by the internal - external spread [64][65][66]. - The cotton price is likely to rise, but be cautious about chasing high. Wait for dips to go long [66]. Sugar - The sugar futures price rose. The international sugar price is affected by the Brazilian sugar - making ratio, and the domestic sugar supply and demand are in a certain state. The spot price is falling [66][67][68]. - The domestic sugar price may fall if the international sugar price drops [68]. Eggs - The egg futures price rose. The supply is sufficient, and the demand for pre - festival stocking is weakening [68][69]. - The near - month contract may continue to rise before the stocking period ends [69]. Apples - The apple futures price rose. The spot price is stable, the pre - festival stocking is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [70][71]. - The price may rise further if the demand continues to improve and the inventory decreases more than expected [71]. Red Dates - The red date market is focused on demand. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The price is likely to oscillate at a low level [72]. - Pay attention to the pre - festival procurement [72]. Logs - The log futures price rebounded with reduced positions. The spot price is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level. The market sentiment is affecting the price [72][73][74]. - Conduct range operations and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread opportunity [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, energy and chemicals, and forest products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives sector, the stock index futures show differentiation, and the rapid repair period of treasury bond futures may have ended; in the agricultural products sector, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends [19][25][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index differentiation continues. On Thursday, the stock index was stable with a slight increase. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes remained strong, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indexes were under pressure. The trading strategies include short - term oscillation in IF/IH, upward oscillation in IM/IC, and corresponding arbitrage and option strategies [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The rapid repair period may have ended. On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. With the tax period affecting the market funds and the equity market's shock - strength, the upward momentum of bond futures has temporarily slowed down. It is recommended to try to go long on the TL contract at low prices [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply disturbances increase, and the market as a whole rises. The demand has slightly improved, and the South American weather affects the US soybean market. However, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the domestic soybean meal has short - term support but long - term pressure [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price fluctuates at the bottom, and Zhengzhou sugar has strong support below. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease, but the northern hemisphere's sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, but the price decline space is limited [30]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The international oil and fat prices have fallen. The domestic soybean oil is gradually destocking, and the rapeseed supply is expected to increase. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and destock, but the destocking speed is slow. The overall oil and fat market will continue to oscillate [33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The northern port's spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at a high level. The US corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic corn has short - term stability but long - term pressure [36][38]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has generally risen. However, the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure still exists [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at the bottom. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the oil mill has profits. The 03 peanut contract is weak, but the market still oscillates at the bottom [43][44]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival stocking approaches, the egg price has risen. The spot price increase supports the futures market, but the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited [46][48]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the apple price is firm. The high cost of apple warehouse receipts supports the price, and if the later demand is normal, the price of the 05 contract is likely to rise [51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The short - term driving force of cotton is limited, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals are strong, and the market is expected to maintain a strong trend [56]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand has weakened marginally, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The construction steel sales have declined, the steel inventory has increased, and the cost has support. The steel price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The driving force is not obvious, and the market oscillates. The Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, the domestic coal mine production has recovered, and the downstream winter storage is limited. The market is expected to oscillate [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations are volatile, and the ore price is weak. The global iron ore supply is abundant, and the domestic demand is expected to be low. The ore price is expected to be weak [65]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the adjustment, the bottom support is strong. The silicon iron and manganese silicon have stable demand and cost support, and it is recommended to hold long positions and add more at low prices [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical events have widened the trust gap, and gold and silver have reached new highs. The market risk - aversion sentiment has fluctuated, and the PCE data and asset allocation adjustment have promoted the rise of gold and silver. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [71][72]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The US dollar index has weakened, and precious metals have strongly made up for the increase. The geopolitical factors and the change of the US dollar asset confidence have affected the market. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force than palladium [75][76]. - **Copper**: The bullish momentum has weakened, and the copper price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical risk has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the long - term supply of ore is tight. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [79]. - **Alumina**: The market mainly oscillates at a low level. The supply - demand is surplus, and the cost is expected to decline. It is recommended to protect the profit of the previous short positions [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price has stabilized in oscillation. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the short - term downstream replenishment sentiment exists. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and be strong in the medium term [85][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The risk preference has boosted the aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the scrap aluminum supply is tight, which supports the price [87]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the change of domestic social inventory. The domestic zinc concentrate shortage has been alleviated, the refined zinc production has increased, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory change [92][93]. - **Lead**: There may be support below. The supply may improve, the consumption has weakened, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to try to go long lightly at low prices near the support level [97][98]. - **Nickel**: The optimistic sentiment still exists, and the nickel price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical situation is tense, and the Indonesian production target has been adjusted. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [100][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand is tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices [103][104]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction news has fermented, but the coking coal has dragged down the market. In the short term, the market is expected to be strong in oscillation. The demand is weak in the medium term, but if the production reduction of large factories is implemented, the price is expected to be strong [104]. - **Polysilicon**: The warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the market expectation has weakened. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the market is pessimistic about the future. It is recommended to participate cautiously [106][107]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by "export rush" and pre - festival stocking. It is recommended to go long after the callback [109]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the macro sentiment. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is mainly affected by the macro sentiment in the short term [112]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate continues to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical dynamics. The spot freight rate is in the off - season decline, and the export tax rebate may delay the decline. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [115][116][117]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation has eased, and the EIA inventory has increased. The increase in inventory and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have pressured the oil price, but the supply threat and the cold wave support the price. The oil price is expected to oscillate widely [121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The low inventory and low production support the spot price. The supply of raw materials is expected to be stable, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 03 contract and the BU4 - 6 positive spread [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cost is oscillating, and the short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel is abundant. The fuel price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the FU59 positive spread [126][128]. - **LPG**: Propane still has support. The international LPG is tight, and the domestic supply and demand are relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate widely [130][131]. - **Natural Gas**: There are still concerns about European supply, and there is a short squeeze in the US HH market. The European market is affected by cold weather, low inventory, and geopolitical risks, and the US market is affected by cold weather and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in TTF and JKM in the third quarter and sell call options [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention has increased. The PX supply is expected to be high, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital. The market is expected to oscillate widely [136][137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: The transaction of South Korean pure benzene to the US Gulf is good, and the supply of styrene has decreased due to unexpected shutdown of plants. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the styrene supply has decreased. The styrene price is expected to be strong in the short term [139][140]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Saudi maintenance may reduce imports, and the market oscillates widely. The supply may decrease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand has weakened. The production load is expected to decrease, and the price follows the cost. The market is expected to oscillate widely [146][147]. - **Bottle Chips**: The maintenance has accelerated in mid - January. The production capacity is expected to decrease, and the replenishment momentum may slow down. The market is expected to oscillate widely [149]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market has support. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [151][152]. - **Plastic PP**: The chemical sector has become stronger, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The domestic PE and PP production capacities have increased, and the market is supported by the chemical sector. It is recommended to hold long positions in L and PP [153][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price has weakened. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weak [159][160]. - **PVC**: The market has risen in resonance. The supply is expected to decrease, the cost is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strong in oscillation [161][162]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price has fallen. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price is expected to decline at a slower pace and oscillate [163][165]. - **Glass**: The futures price has fallen. The production is stable, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline at a slower pace and be weak in oscillation [166][167]. - **Methanol**: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate has declined, the domestic supply is loose, and the demand has support. It is recommended to go short in the short term and pay attention to the 59 positive spread [169]. - **Urea**: The market is oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has limited impact, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak in oscillation [172]. Forest Products - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates widely. The supply exceeds demand, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate more [174][175][176]. - **Logs**: The spot price is stable with a slight increase. The supply pressure has not been significantly relieved, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions and switch the spread strategy [177][179]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short - sell in a small amount [180][181]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise. The tire production line start - up rate has increased, which is beneficial to the natural rubber market. It is recommended to wait and see and buy call options [183][184]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise, and multiple contracts have reached the daily limit. The inventory has changed, and the tire production line start - up rate has increased. It is recommended to hold the spread and buy call options [187][188][189].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical issues and the Fed's stance are key factors affecting precious metals. Gold and silver have long - term investment value due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases. Copper has long - term potential due to supply shortages and green demand, but short - term fluctuations are affected by seasonality and market sentiment. Zinc shows a short - term rebound but is limited by weak fundamentals. Aluminum and nickel face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand. Industrial silicon and polysilicon have short - term rebound opportunities. Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish with supply - side disturbances [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold reached a new high due to geopolitical issues. SHFE gold was at 1087.58 with a - 0.43% daily change and a 3.40% weekly change; COMEX gold was at 4938 with a 2.11% daily change and a 7.33% weekly change. Silver also showed an upward trend. SHFE silver was at 23339 with a 0.90% daily change and a 0.65% weekly change; COMEX silver was at 96 with a 3.51% daily change and a 6.97% weekly change [2]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical issues such as Trump's rumored actions in Cuba and the weakening of the US dollar due to large - scale capital outflows from US dollar assets. Central banks continue to buy gold, and long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged. Silver's logic is dominated by gold's safe - haven property [1][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term holding. The short - term support for domestic gold is at 1040, and for domestic silver is at 21000. In 2026, the overall support for precious metals is still strong, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The 100,000 - yuan mark was regained after a tug - of - war. The closing price of SHFE copper was 100270, down 0.43% from the previous day [4]. - **Core Logic**: BHP slightly raised its copper production guidance for fiscal year 2026. In December 2025, refined copper imports decreased. Although it is currently the traditional off - season, the long - term supply - demand logic remains unchanged, with tight global copper concentrate supply and growing green demand for copper [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For existing long positions, use trailing stop - loss to lock in profits. New entrants should wait for a full correction. In the long - term, copper is still promising. Short - term, SHFE copper is in the range of [99500, 103000] yuan/ton, and LME copper is in the range of [12500, 13000] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The market sentiment improved, and zinc showed a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically. The closing price of SHFE zinc was 24530, up 0.74% from the previous day [7]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, global zinc ore supply may shrink, and domestic new mine production increases are uncertain. Refined zinc production in December decreased, and downstream processing enterprises'开工 rates declined during the off - season [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long positions should take profits on rallies. Enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging to lock in profits. SHFE zinc is in the range of [24200, 24800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc is in the range of [3150, 3250] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices faced pressure in the short - term, and alumina stabilized at a low level [11]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was put into production, and inventory increased. The downstream processing enterprises'开工 rates showed a differentiated trend. The alumina market remained oversupplied [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For SHFE aluminum, take profits and wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23000 - 25000] [13]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices faced pressure in the short - term, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [15]. - **Core Logic**: In 2026, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. Indonesia significantly reduced its nickel ore production target, and there were issues of illegal land occupation in some mines. Domestic pure nickel inventory increased, and stainless steel was in the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits and wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [133000 - 151000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened high and went high, hitting a new high during the session [18]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the news of canceling export tax rebates for lithium batteries, prices rose for two consecutive days, but then回调 due to the overall decline of the non - ferrous sector and exchange position - limit measures. The upstream lithium salt plants had high enthusiasm for production, and the new production capacity of material plants in 2026 provided support for rigid demand [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: High - level oscillation in the range of [16400 - 175000] [20].

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/23 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/16 | 59.44 | 64.13 | 61.66 | 2.28 | 0.67 | -4.69 | 1.44 | 178.52 | 10.85 | 223.76 | 29.85 | | 2026/01/19 | - | 63.94 | - | 2.28 | 0.72 | - | 1.54 | - | - | - | - | | 2026/01/20 | 60.36 | 64.92 | 61.79 | 2 ...