全球市场再现低迷！ 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，变数主要来自两个方面。 一是关税。美国总统特朗普周三表示，他将在未来几周向主要经济体发送信函，设定他计划的贸易关税，这打 消了在7月9日与其政府达成协议的最后期限前达成更多贸易协议的希望。日本首相石破茂表示，他不会仓促与 美国达成损害国家利益的贸易协议，但他欢迎与特朗普在将举行的峰会前取得的任何进展。 二是中东。据多位知情人士透露，尽管特朗普正在与德黑兰就一项旨在削减其核计划的外交协议进行深入讨 论，但以色列仍考虑在未来几天对伊朗采取军事行动。一位国防官员透露，由于"地区紧张局势加剧"，美国国 务院下令非紧急状态的政府官员撤离伊拉克，五角大楼也已授权军人家属自愿离开中东各地。 避险情绪再度显现 今天，全球市场再度进入到避险情绪主导的阶段。欧洲股市全线杀跌，美股期指亦大幅下行，标普500VIX指 数则明显反弹。亚太股市收盘亦大多出现杀跌行情，恒生科技指数跌超2%，恒生指数跌1.36%，中国稀土跌超 14%，小鹏汽车跌超6%，快手跌约6%。 与此同时， 美元指数失守98，为4月21日来首次，日内跌0.68%。日元兑美元涨超0.5%，领涨非美货 币。 虚拟币也 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价再现突破式反弹，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 3.17 美元 | | | | 至 68.15 美元/桶，涨幅 4.88%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.90 美 | | | | 元至 69.77 美元/桶，涨幅 4.34%。SC2507 以 497.4 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 16.2 元/桶，涨幅为 3.37%。昨天凌晨突发，中东地缘动荡进一 | | | | 步加剧，油价凌晨大幅拉高。美媒称，美国防长下令美军家属可 | | | | 从中东各地自愿撤离。美国军方正在与国务院及其在该地区的盟 | | | | 友合作，"保持持续的战备状态"。EIA 数据，上周美国原油库存 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 下降，因炼油活动增加，推高汽油和馏分油库存。截至 6 月 6 日 | 偏强 | | | 当周，美国商业原油库存减少 360 万桶至 4.324 亿桶，此前市场 | | | | 预期为减少200万桶。当周俄克拉荷马州的库欣 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global market shows a differentiated pattern, with the Fed's rate - cut expectations constrained by inflation resilience and the ECB hinting at the end of the easing cycle. The equity market is supported by loose funds, but external disturbances and volume - energy sustainability should be watched [3]. - Crude oil may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but its upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts on supply [4]. - Gold is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, and investors should pay attention to US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [5][6]. - Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation, and US inflation data will affect its short - term direction [7]. - Most chemical products are expected to have a weak or bearish short - term trend, with supply - demand contradictions and inventory changes being important influencing factors [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. - Rubber may have a weak rebound after the short - term negative factors are realized, but it is still affected by the oversupply situation [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price is in an oscillation range, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment should be watched [19]. - Agricultural products show different trends. Corn may oscillate in the short - term, peanuts may decline slightly but have limited downside, cotton may be strong in the short - term, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply - demand and seasonal factors [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. - Metal prices have different trends. Copper may touch the bubble price line, aluminum may oscillate in a range, alumina shows a weak adjustment, and other metals are also affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and global economic situation [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Black metal products' prices also vary. Stainless steel may oscillate at a low level, and steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil can be considered for light - position long positions at low prices, while iron ore and coal may oscillate in the short - term [41][42][43][44][45][46] Summary by Industry Macro - Index - Market analysis: Global markets are differentiated. The Fed's rate - cut expectations are constrained, and the ECB hints at the end of the easing cycle. The central bank maintains a "broad credit, stable currency" policy. The equity market is supported by loose funds, with capital flowing to non - banking finance and technology sectors. Index futures show short - covering and a decline in the PCR indicator [3]. - Reference view: Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's policy implementation. Short - term holding along the 5 - day moving average is advisable. Be wary of the risk of insufficient volume energy [3]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The second - round Sino - US negotiations reach a "framework agreement in principle," and the oil price may oscillate strongly. Focus on the key level of $65 per barrel for WTI [4]. - Market analysis: OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts, and US policies cause concerns about demand. Although US crude oil inventories decline, refined product inventories increase. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase supply uncertainty, and OPEC+ plans to increase production [4]. - Reference view: Watch whether WTI can break through $65 per barrel in the short - term. In the long - term, the upside is limited without major geopolitical impacts [4]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: US economic resilience pressures short - term gold prices, but multiple factors support it in the long - term. Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks limit the downside space, and the Fed's policy also affects the price [5]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold futures warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. The spot price has a discount compared to the futures price [6]. - Operation suggestion: Gold is expected to oscillate. Investors should watch US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6]. Silver - Market price: On June 11, the international spot silver price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts increased significantly. Global economic growth expectations are lowered, and trade tensions ease, reducing the safe - haven demand for silver [7]. - Operation suggestion: Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to US inflation data [7]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect PTA costs. PTA device maintenance and restart coexist, with an overall increase in the operating rate and a decrease in inventory days. Polyester and textile loads decline, and weak orders may intensify supply - demand contradictions [8]. - Reference view: It may oscillate bearishly in the short - term [8]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price is flat, and the basis is positive [9]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in coal - based production. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventories in the East China main port increase, and future arrivals may limit the upside [9]. - Reference view: The price may be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. PVC - Spot information: The East China 5 - type PVC spot price increased, and the ethylene - calcium price difference decreased [10][11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, but downstream demand is still weak. Inventories decreased. The futures price oscillated at a low level without significant fundamental improvement [10][11]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [11]. PP - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions fluctuate slightly [12]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, and production volume rose. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream orders decreased. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price oscillated at a low level [12]. - Reference view: Demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Plastic - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions have different changes [14]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate changed little. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price may oscillate [14]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price may oscillate in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The heavy - soda prices in different regions are stable [15]. - Market analysis: The overall operating rate and production volume increased. Factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories decreased. Demand is average, and the market lacks new drivers [15]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: The 5mm glass prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The operating rate and production volume decreased slightly. Inventories increased, and demand is weak. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [17]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade negotiations and typhoons affect the price. The supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season. Downstream tire operating rates decline, and trade - war concerns suppress demand, but there is a rebound expectation after the negative factors are realized [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream operating rates. It may start a weak rebound after short - term negative factors are realized [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, and prices in other regions vary [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price increased slightly. Port inventories increased. Supply pressure is high, and demand from MTO devices recovers, while traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [19]. - Reference view: The futures price is in an oscillation range. Watch Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Good weather in US corn - growing areas and Sino - US trade relations affect imports. The domestic market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with tight supply in the short - term. Wheat substitution and weather are key factors. Downstream demand is weak [20][21]. - Reference view: The corn futures price may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short - term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. The market is in the inventory - consumption period, with low imports and low inventory levels. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventories may support the price [22]. - Reference view: The peanut price may decline slightly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Band - trading is advisable [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The Chinese cotton spot price index and Xinjiang cotton arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations ease, boosting the market. In the long - term, cotton supply is expected to be abundant. In the short - term, low imports and low commercial inventories support the price, but downstream demand is weak [23]. - Reference view: The cotton price may be strong in the short - term. Watch whether it can fill the previous gap [23]. Pig - Spot market: The average price of live pigs in major production and sales areas increased slightly [24]. - Market analysis: Farmers resist low - price sales, reducing supply. Demand is weak due to warm weather, and terminal consumption lacks improvement [24]. - Reference view: The live - pig futures price may oscillate weakly. Watch the slaughter situation [24]. Egg - Spot market: The national average egg price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing chickens decreases, and old - hen culling increases, supporting the price. Demand may increase in the tourism and catering industries during the summer vacation, but the plum - rain season suppresses consumption [25]. - Reference view: The egg futures price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [25]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The rapeseed meal price in Fangchenggang increased [27]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is weak due to a small price difference with soybean meal and the off - season. Watch Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [27]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of rapeseed meal futures at the upper pressure level [27]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The rapeseed oil price in Fangchenggang is stable [28]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short - to - medium - term [28]. - Reference view: The rapeseed oil futures price may oscillate near the platform [28]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans are provided [29]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market confidence. Good weather in US soybean - growing areas and the peak season of Brazilian soybean exports affect the price [29]. - Reference view: The soybean No. 2 futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [29]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Soybean meal prices in different regions are provided [30]. - Market analysis: Pay attention to Sino - US trade talks. Internationally, trade talks boost confidence, and tariffs and weather are key factors. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and downstream demand is weak, but inventory accumulation is slow [30]. - Reference view: The soybean meal futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [30]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Soybean oil prices in different regions are provided [31]. - Market analysis: Internationally, supply pressure and falling oil prices put pressure on soybean oil. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and demand is in the off - season, with inventory accumulation pressure increasing [31]. - Reference view: The soybean oil futures price may oscillate in the short - term [31] Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import copper ore index also rose [32]. - Market analysis: US economic data reduces recession concerns and rate - cut expectations. Global tariffs and domestic policies affect the market. Raw material issues and inventory changes make the market more complex [33]. - Reference view: The copper price may touch the bubble price line. Consider removing defenses based on signals [33]. Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [34]. - Market analysis: The cost of alumina increases, supporting the theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum. Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is in the off - season. Inventories decline, and the spot market is at a premium, but demand limits the upside [34]. - Reference view: The aluminum futures price may oscillate in a range [34]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average alumina price decreased slightly, and prices in different regions vary [35]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market sentiment. Supply slightly decreases as smelters' profits improve. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories start to accumulate. The price is under pressure [35]. - Reference view: The alumina futures price shows a weak adjustment trend [35]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy are stable [36]. - Market analysis: The high price of scrap aluminum supports the cost. Supply is in surplus as the industry expands. Demand from new - energy vehicles and electronics is resilient but limited by tariffs and the global economy. Inventories are high and may continue to accumulate [36]. - Reference view: The cast aluminum alloy futures price may be strong [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are stable [38]. - Market analysis: The upstream raw - material market shows signs of stabilization, supply is stable but the structure is adjusting, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at the bottom [38]. - Reference view: Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can trade in the range [38]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon are stable [39]. - Market analysis: Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak as downstream industries cut production or have low operating rates. Inventories are digested slowly, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it may rebound [39]. - Reference view: The industrial silicon futures price may oscillate strongly at the bottom [39]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [40]. - Market analysis: Supply shows no obvious contraction, and demand is weak overall, with some differentiation. Exports decline. The market's supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated [40]. - Reference view: The polysilicon futures price may oscillate. Watch the previous low - point support [40] Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil increased [41]. - Market analysis: Technically, it may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. Fundamentally, the raw - material market is quiet, and cost supports the price, but weak demand restricts the upside [41]. - Reference view: It may oscillate widely at a low level. Wait and see for now [41]. Rebar - Spot information: The price of rebar in Shanghai is stable [42]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, and demand is in the off - season, but inventories are low and the valuation is low [42][43]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [43]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is stable [44]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, apparent demand recovers, and inventories are low with a low valuation [44]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [44]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The iron ore price index and futures price are provided [45]. - Market analysis: Supply pressure eases as global shipments increase and domestic production rises slightly. Demand weakens as steel - mill operating rates decline, but current iron - water production is still high. Port inventories increase, and demand in the off - season is expected to be weak. Sino - US tariff easing boosts sentiment, but steel - billet exports are uncertain. Non - mainstream ore production cuts support the price, but reduced steel - mill profits may suppress demand [45]. - Reference view: The iron ore futures price may oscillate in the short - term. Watch port inventory

贵金属日报: 地缘局势升温 黄金受益上涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月12日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属市场黄金收高，白银和钯金震荡调整，铂金则继续大涨。周三晚间公布的美CPI略低于预期 曾一度助推黄金上涨，因降息预期回升，但很快黄金冲高回落。然中东地缘局势升级担忧为金价上涨提供 重要支持，并伴随油价大涨。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3376美元/盎司，+0.98%；美白银2507合 约收报于36.36美元/盎司，-0.77%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报777.54元/克，+0.56%；SHFE白银 2508合约收8902元/千克，-0.28%。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线走势分化，黄金延续震荡，伦敦金阻力3400，3438，3500。伦敦银则维持偏强 状态，上方目标位已上移至40区域，但日线有调整压力，支撑35.9-36区域，关键支撑34.8-35区域。我 们仍将短线回调视为中长期做多机会。 贵金属期现价格表 | | 单位 | 最新价 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual品种outlooks, the general sentiment for the energy and chemical industry is "震荡" (sideways movement), with some品种having "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a weak bias) outlooks. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic data shows a weakening reality, and the overall energy and chemical sector is expected to move sideways. The weak domestic economic data in May, including deflation trends and mixed trade data, are the main reasons for the adjustment in the domestic chemical market. However, the relatively stable oil prices limit the downside space for chemicals [1][2][3]. - Crude oil supply surplus expectations remain, but short - term macro and geopolitical factors support prices. OPEC + production increases have not fully met the quota, which helps ease short - term supply concerns, but the cumulative effect of production increases in the second half of the year may lead to a supply surplus [5]. - Different品种in the energy and chemical sector have their own supply - demand characteristics, and most are expected to move sideways or sideways with a weak bias. For example, LPG demand is weak, asphalt prices are expected to fall, and PTA supply is increasing while demand is decreasing [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply surplus expectations remain, and prices are influenced by macro and geopolitical factors. On June 9, SC2507 closed at 474.3 yuan/barrel (+1.76%), and Brent2508 closed at 67.13 dollars/barrel (+0.72%). - **Main Logic**: Macro and geopolitical factors boost short - term prices. Saudi Arabia's actual production increase in May was less than the quota, which eases short - term supply concerns. However, the supply surplus is expected in the second half of the year due to the cumulative effect of OPEC + production increases. - **Outlook**: Prices will continue to move sideways under the balance of OPEC + production pressure and macro - geopolitical support [5]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: Demand is weak, and the upward rebound space is limited. On June 9, PG 2507 closed at 4116 yuan/ton (+0.44%). - **Main Logic**: Domestic refinery maintenance is ending, and supply is increasing. High temperatures reduce domestic combustion demand, and PDH device operating rates are slightly declining, with limited propane demand. - **Outlook**: It is expected to move sideways at the bottom in the short term [10]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Futures prices are expected to fall. The main asphalt futures closed at 3509 yuan/ton, and spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3650 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3695 yuan/ton respectively. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price increases are driven by geopolitical factors, and heavy oil supply is expected to increase. Domestic asphalt raw material supply is sufficient, inventory in Shandong is decreasing, but cracking spreads are high, and production in South China is increasing. Demand - side indicators show that asphalt is overvalued. - **Outlook**: The probability of inventory reduction, basis, and calendar spread increases is high, but the absolute price is overvalued [5]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The cracking spread is falling. The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2943 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price increases due to sentiment, and heavy oil supply is expected to increase. China's fuel oil import tariff increase and the substitution of natural gas for oil in power generation reduce demand. - **Outlook**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to move sideways with a weak bias [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Prices follow crude oil and move sideways. The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3525 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak. Demand is affected by weak refined oil products, shipping demand decline, and energy substitution. Domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: It will follow crude oil price fluctuations with a relatively low valuation [9]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Supply resumes quickly, and attention should be paid to PTA production and polyester start - up. On June 9, PX CFR China Taiwan was 808 (-10) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 6494 (-62) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price fluctuations slow down the cost - side guidance. Asian PX operating rates are expected to increase, and PTA device restarts are stronger than maintenance. Domestic PX is in a de - stocking cycle. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand competition intensifies, and prices will continue to consolidate [11]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the market situation is deteriorating. On June 9, PTA spot price was 4855 (-42) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 473 (13) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Demand is weak due to limited orders and high inventory in the weaving industry. Polyester production and sales are sluggish, and supply is restarting. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand weakens, and prices are expected to move sideways with a weak bias [11]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Production cuts support processing fees, and prices follow raw materials. On June 9, polyester short - fiber prices were 6485 (-25) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 868 (-39) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: The short - fiber industry's production cuts reduce supply pressure, and the spot basis strengthens. The decline on Monday was due to macro factors, and the industry pattern is still healthy. - **Outlook**: Processing fee compression space is limited, and macro - level negatives dominate the market [15]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: Prices follow raw materials, and the self - pattern is weak. On June 9, domestic polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable, and the export quotes were also stable. - **Main Logic**: Supply and demand are weak. The industry is reducing production due to poor profitability, but inventory is still at a five - year high. - **Outlook**: Processing fees will fluctuate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the expansion power is limited [16]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire - drawing PP was 7050 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 118 (-7) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Oil price rebounds support the cost side, but terminal demand is weak. Supply is increasing, and high - level maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. - **Outlook**: Prices will move sideways in the short term [25]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the mainstream LLDPE spot price was 7120 (-10) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 42 (-22) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Oil price rebounds, but terminal demand is weak. The plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure, and demand is low. Overseas prices are stable, and the exchange rate affects the domestic market. - **Outlook**: The LLDPE 09 contract will move sideways in the short term [24]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Prices increase slightly. On June 9, the East China styrene spot price was 7450 (50) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 239 (-53) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Weekend sales of pure benzene in Shandong are good, which improves market sentiment. However, the real - time benefits are few, and supply may increase while demand is weak. - **Outlook**: Prices will move sideways with a weak bias in the short term [11]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Prices have a weak rebound in the short term. On June 9, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4780 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 36 (-16) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Sino - US talks improve market sentiment. However, in the medium - long term, new production capacity, off - season demand, and weak export expectations still put pressure on the market. - **Outlook**: Prices will have a weak rebound in the short term, and the market will be under pressure in the medium - long term without strong macro - stimulus [27]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices have peaked, and short - selling is recommended. On June 9, the Shandong 32% caustic soda equivalent - to - 100% price was 2750 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 442 (+27) yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the receiving volume of Weiqiao increases. However, concentrated maintenance in June limits the decline space. - **Outlook**: Spot pressure is not large in June, and the 09 contract is expected to be bearish. Short - selling is recommended, but beware of supply reduction and alumina restocking [27]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move sideways. On June 9, the low - end price of methanol in Taicang was 2325 yuan/ton, and the 01 port spot basis was 48 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: Prices are affected by cost pressure and weak demand. Port inventory is increasing, and coal price rebounds have a small impact. - **Outlook**: Prices will move sideways in the short term [21]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The futures market is weak, and wait for the callback opportunity after agricultural demand is released. On June 6, the low - end prices of urea factory warehouses and the market were 1760 (-20) and 1740 (-65) yuan/ton respectively, and the main contract closed at 1697 yuan/ton (-1.34%). - **Main Logic**: Supply is high, agricultural demand has not yet been concentrated, and industrial demand is weak. Exports are expected to be reflected in mid - to - late June. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and spot prices may be under pressure. The futures market is expected to move sideways with a weak bias [21]. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different品种have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, SC's M1 - M2 spread is 4 (-1), and WTI's M1 - M2 spread is 0.94 (-0.01) [29]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each品种has its own basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the asphalt basis is 222 (+36), and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [30]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also inter - variety spread data, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 121 (-17) [31].

若后市市场上破3338.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3348.00-3358.00。（止损为5.00美元/盎司空间） 国际贸易紧张局势有所缓和，市场避险情绪回落，目前市场正在关注中美贸易谈判进展情况，现货黄金市场昨日维 持在小区间内震荡，周一市场最低至3293.60美元/盎司，最高至3338.25美元/盎司，最终收盘于3325.39美元/盎司。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币政策的动向 和美债收益率情况。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图处于震荡阶段，震荡区间3320.00-3338.00，操作上可在这个区间高抛低 吸。 若后市市场下破3320.00点位则可介入空单，下方目标可看向3310.00-3300.00美元/盎司。 交易风险提示：任何投资都存在风险，包括资金损失的风险。该建议不构成具体的投资建议，投资者应根据自己的 风险承受能力、投资目标和市场情况做出决策。 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于主升情绪，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间36.530-36.900，操作上可在这个区间内高抛 低吸。 若 ...

Core Viewpoint - The roundtable discussion highlighted that disruptions in trade are not temporary but signify a fundamental restructuring of the global economic order, necessitating a new strategic realism mindset [3]. Group 1: Key Themes from the Discussion - The U.S. trade policy is undergoing a fundamental transformation [4]. - Economic policy has become synonymous with security policy, requiring businesses to adapt to a more fragmented and politicized market environment [6]. - The current U.S. government aims to shift the economy towards a manufacturing-based model, recognizing the risks of over-reliance on foreign supply chains, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [7]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts in Global Trade - Data-driven scenario planning is replacing predictive models, as companies seek actionable insights to navigate long-term geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. global policy roles continues to persist, impacting international relations and trade dynamics [9]. - Countries are reassessing their positions in the market economy, leading to increased government intervention and the development of policies focused on national champions and economic resilience [12]. Group 3: Global Economic Order Changes - Long-standing allies of the U.S., such as Canada and the EU, face new tariff measures, eroding trust and complicating future cooperation [12]. - Concerns over the long-term dominance of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency are emerging, with limited alternatives currently available [12]. - Japan and South Korea are quickly aligning their trade strategies with U.S. policies, while ASEAN countries seek to balance relations between the U.S. and China [12].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为75.36%减0.30%；焦 炭日均产 量66.52减0.27，焦 炭库存 127.01增15.63，炼焦煤总库存818.92减27.41，焦煤可用天数 9.3天减0.27天。评：焦企处于微利或小幅亏损状态，开工率尚 可，铁水产量短期仍处高位，但淡季将至叠加出口压力仍存， 需求预期不佳，市场已开启第三轮提降，后市仍有看跌预期。 煤矿生产仍处高位，上游煤矿库存压力凸显，现货成交清冷， 焦煤整体供需仍显宽松。总体来看，双焦基本面并无明显改 善，盘面反弹高度有限。 【短评-黄金】美联储穆萨莱姆称，关税可能推高CPI一至 两个季度，关税引发持续通胀的可能性为 "五五开"，官员们 可能受益于有利的情形，即贸易和财政政策的不确定性"在7月 消失，存在一种同样可能的情况，即关税对价格的影响可能会 持续更久，政治干预可能会使央行降低利率变得更加困难。 评：美联储降息预期减弱，美国就业数据具有韧性，美元指数 反弹，黄金短期回调。黄金白银或走分化行情，黄金中期高位 震荡思路对待。关注关税矛盾和地缘政治是否进一步激化。 投资咨询中心 2025 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78865，基差-65，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月6日铜库存减5600至132400吨，上期所铜库存较上周增1613吨至107404吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，多翻空；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，铜价震荡运行为主. 近期利多利空分析 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,巴以地缘政治扰动。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（6.3~5.6） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡大幅上涨，沪铜主力合约上涨1.71%，收报于78930元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价, 美国关税再起波澜，全球不确定仍强。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业 端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存132400吨，上周出现小幅 减少，上期所铜库存较上周增1613吨至107404吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 数据来源：Wind ...