Group 1 - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) is being held from November 5 to 10, showcasing China's commitment to market openness and global trade opportunities [2][4] - A record 155 countries, regions, and international organizations are participating, with 4,108 foreign enterprises exhibiting, marking the largest exhibition area in history at over 430,000 square meters [2] - The expo features a significant presence of global companies related to bulk commodities, highlighting the role of futures markets in global trade [2][4] Group 2 - The launch of pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange provides effective risk management tools for the paper industry, with additional products like printing paper futures and options introduced [2][3] - Vale, a leading iron ore producer, emphasizes the importance of the expo for foreign companies, viewing it as a positive signal for continued investment in the Chinese market [4] - Major global grain traders, including Cargill and ADM, are showcasing their products, with futures markets playing a crucial role in stabilizing the agricultural supply chain [4][5] Group 3 - Cargill plans to sign strategic procurement agreements totaling approximately $2.8 billion in various sectors, including grains and iron ore, during the expo [6] - The expo serves as a platform for companies to demonstrate their commitment to sustainability and innovation in the agricultural supply chain [5][6] - The importance of supply chain management is highlighted, with companies providing comprehensive services to stabilize prices and ensure resource security [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and policy factors. Overall, it presents a cautious attitude towards the short - term market of these commodities, with many recommendations to wait and see [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, with the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remaining stable. As of November 1st, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. Domestic spot trading was average, downstream pure cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly, and the market was dull. China may reduce additional tariffs on US cotton imports, and Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly, and there are rumors of syrup import control, which provides some support. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. It is expected that sugar prices will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price continued to correct. The price of high - quality apples was stable, while that of low - quality apples was weak. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. There is uncertainty in the initial cold - storage inventory, and the high price and poor quality of apples may lead to slow inventory removal. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] Rubber (20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - Today, RU&NR fluctuated weakly, and BR first declined and then rose. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the synthetic rubber spot price was stable. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China will enter the low - yield period. The domestic tire operating rate continued to rise slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is slowly recovering, the supply pressure is easing, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to rise, and the spot prices were stable. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream imported pulp inventory in China was 2.061 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In September, China imported 2.9525 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 272,500 tons. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Timber - The futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, and the domestic spot price was weak. Traders' import willingness decreased, and the domestic supply is expected to remain low. The export volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bearish sentiment with 21 contracts rising and 57 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The main contracts experiencing significant price increases include the shipping index (European line) at 2512 (+4.08%) and eggs at 2512 (+1.93%) [4] - Conversely, the main contracts with notable declines include polysilicon at 2601 (-2.44%) and fiberboard at 2512 (-1.84%), likely influenced by increased bearish forces or negative fundamentals [6] Capital Flow - The most significant capital inflows were observed in the CSI 1000 at 2512 (2.188 billion), CSI 500 at 2512 (553 million), and SSE 50 at 2512 (403 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - The largest capital outflows were seen in Shanghai gold at 2512 (-1.08 billion), Shanghai copper at 2512 (-918 million), and Shanghai aluminum at 2512 (-682 million), suggesting a clear withdrawal of funds from these contracts [8] Position Changes - Notable increases in positions were recorded for japonica rice at 2602 (+24.57%) and soybean at 2601 (+12.36%), indicating new funds entering the market and heightened trading activity [11] - Significant decreases in positions were noted for live pigs at 2601 (-6.78%) and apples at 2601 (-6.84%), suggesting potential withdrawals of major funds and warranting attention for future performance [11] Key Events - The U.S. federal government has entered its 36th day of shutdown, marking the longest shutdown in history, which may have implications for market stability and investor sentiment [12] - The State Council's Tariff Policy Committee announced adjustments to tariffs on imports from the U.S., continuing to suspend the 24% tariff while retaining a 10% tariff, which could affect trade dynamics [13] Industry Insights - Polysilicon inventory has decreased to 256,000 tons, down 10,600 tons from the previous week, indicating a downward trend in overall inventory levels as orders continue to be fulfilled [15] - In the pork industry, large-scale enterprises are accelerating the slaughter of pigs, with November's planned slaughter volume expected to decrease by 2.54% compared to October, reflecting market pressures and changing supply dynamics [16] - The Anhui Province's gold industry development plan aims to consolidate resources in key mining areas and promote the establishment of competitive enterprises, which may enhance operational efficiency and market competitiveness [17] Future Focus - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) forecasts a 10% increase in palm oil production in 2025, reaching approximately 56 million tons, driven by favorable weather and strong prices [19] - The market is advised to monitor the ongoing dynamics in the polysilicon sector, where supply-demand imbalances and policy expectations may influence future price movements [23][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum has support at the lower level, the over - supply pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 21,465, with a change of 325 compared to the previous day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 2,866, down 43 from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract have decreased [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2,770, down 19 from the previous day. The trading volume has decreased significantly, while the open interest has increased [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,960, down 105 from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest have changed accordingly [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit is 195.12, and the aluminum spot import profit and loss is - 2,318.36. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 614,000 tons, with a slight change [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina is 2,896, down 4 from the previous day. The import price from Australia and other regions has also changed [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is - 21, and the price of Baotai ADC12 is 20,900, with a significant change compared to the previous day [1]

Group 1 - The market sentiment has cooled down as news disturbances have weakened, returning focus to fundamentals, but contradictions between expectations and reality persist [1][3] - The spot market prices remain weak and stable, with some specifications showing slight declines, while downstream purchasing conditions have not improved, leading to subdued trading activity [1][3] - Industry supply remains tight, primarily due to production cuts in the southwest, while large manufacturers are reducing output, and production levels in the northwest are gradually increasing [1][3] Group 2 - Downstream silicon wafer manufacturers are facing price pressures, with recent attempts to maintain prices yielding limited results, particularly for 182mm wafers affected by export markets like India [1][3] - Inventory levels of polysilicon continue to rise, with factory stocks at high levels and a slight decrease in warehouse receipts compared to the previous week [1][3] - The trading logic in the market has been fluctuating, with strong policy expectations providing some support to market sentiment, although the execution of these policies remains a concern [3]

Group 1 - The market sentiment has cooled down as news disturbances have diminished, leading to a return to fundamentals, although contradictions between expectations and reality persist [1] - Market prices are weak and stable, with some specifications showing slight price declines, while downstream purchasing conditions have not improved [1] - The industry supply remains tight, primarily due to production cuts from large manufacturers in the southwest, while companies in the northwest maintain production levels [1] Group 2 - Downstream silicon wafer manufacturers are under price pressure, with limited effectiveness in their attempts to maintain prices, particularly for 182mm wafers affected by export markets like India [1] - Inventory levels for polysilicon continue to rise, with factory stocks at high levels and a slight decrease in warehouse receipts compared to the previous week [1] - The market trading logic is fluctuating, with strong policy expectations and a still loose fundamental environment, while demand continues to show signs of contraction [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PE is under pressure due to prominent supply - demand contradictions. High supply, limited demand from sectors like agricultural films, and weak cost - end support lead to continued weak and volatile trends [2]. - PP also faces supply - demand contradictions. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6879元/吨（-9）, PP主力合约收盘价为6560元/吨（-16）. LL华北现货为6870元/吨（-20）, LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50）, PP华东现货为6530元/吨（-50）. LL华北基差为 - 9元/吨（-11）, LL华东基差为71元/吨（-41）, PP华东基差为 - 30元/吨（-34） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%）, PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为272.7元/吨（-10.7）, PP油制生产利润为 - 387.3元/吨（-10.7）, PDH制PP生产利润为 - 109.5元/吨（+42.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为 - 7.0元/吨（-25.8）, PP进口利润为 - 255.7元/吨（+37.1）, PP出口利润为 - 15.8美元/吨（+0.7） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%）, PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%）, PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply - side pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and the release of new production capacities. Demand growth may slow down, and cost - end support is expected to weaken. PE will continue weak and volatile [2]. - **PP**: Supply - demand contradictions exist. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: LLDPE is neutral; PP is recommended to be cautiously shorted at high prices [3]. - **Inter - term**: L01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices; PP01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices [3]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [3].

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-05 华东下游11月液碱采购价下调 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4670元/吨（-10）；华东基差-70元/吨（+10）;华南基差-10元/吨（-10）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4600元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4660元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格740元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-763元/吨（-40）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-545元/吨（+16）；PVC出口利润0.5美元/吨（+4.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.8万吨（+0.4）；PVC社会库存54.5万吨（-1.0）；PVC电石法开工率76.47%（+4.82%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.50%（-0.06%）；PVC开工率77.09%（+3.35%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量77.4万吨（+13.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2336元/吨（-14）；山东32%液碱基差164元/吨（+14）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is weak, leading to a decline in the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets. For industrial silicon, the current low valuation may present an opportunity for price increases if relevant policies are introduced. For polysilicon, the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with limited upside potential and expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation [3][7]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,130 yuan/ton and closed at 8,885 yuan/ton, a change of - 210 yuan/ton (- 2.31%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 242,153 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 45,823 lots, a decrease of 338 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. In November, the supply is expected to increase as some maintenance devices resume production, while demand shows no significant change, resulting in an oversupply situation. Although the cost of industrial silicon has been oscillating slightly upward recently, it can only provide short - term support for the price of DMC and cannot drive a substantial price rebound [1][2]. - In October 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons (7.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 17,600 tons (4%). From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 3.4699 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6% [1]. Strategy - The intraday correction was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. Production cuts started in the southwest at the end of October, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is currently oscillating based on the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If relevant policies on capacity exit are introduced, there may be room for price increases. Short - term interval trading is recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 56,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,715 yuan/ton, a 3.91% decrease from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 128,876 lots (143,844 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 274,348 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%, and the silicon wafer production was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. In October, the polysilicon production was about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and production is expected to decline [4][5]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with significant inventory pressure. Both supply and demand may decrease starting in November. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. Policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. It is expected that relevant policies will be introduced this year. Without significant improvement in consumer demand, the upside potential of the futures market is limited, and it is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation. Short - term interval trading is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 and 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: In the short - term, the upside of cotton prices is limited due to factors such as potential entry of hedging positions after price increases, weak downstream demand, and concentrated new cotton listing. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and consumption resilience, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases [2][3] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle with an oversupply pattern, limiting the rebound of raw sugar. For domestic sugar, there is an expectation of increased production in the new season, and the price is near the cost line. It is expected to fluctuate by the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [5][6] - **Pulp**: The supply of pulp remains loose with high port inventories, and demand is weak both globally and domestically. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter should be noted [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,640 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,841 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. As of October 31, 2025/26 in Pakistan, the cumulative listed volume of new - season seed cotton in terms of lint was about 688,000 tons, an increase of 3.4% year - on - year [2] Market Analysis - Internationally, Sino - US negotiations have made progress, but the amount of US cotton that China will purchase is unclear. The release of key data is delayed, and there is a short - term supply pressure due to the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the new - season cotton market starts with low inventory, and the supply is supplemented by new cotton. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, but there are factors such as potential hedging positions and weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - In the short - term, there is a possibility of a callback. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5481 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.33%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5680 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Conab estimated that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season would be 4.134 million tons, higher than the previous forecast [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar prices are under pressure from oversupply. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined in the short - term, the global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle [5] Strategy - The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited by factors such as cost and policies. It is expected to fluctuate by the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5288 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import pulp spot market prices were mostly stable with some fluctuations [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' production reduction and price increase plans have limited impact on the overall supply pattern, and domestic port inventories remain high. Demand: Consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and domestic demand is the core factor suppressing prices. Even in the peak season, downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]