1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Lead prices are oscillating at low levels, with declining inventories and reduced production of secondary lead providing support, but the spot market is weakening towards the year - end. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,100 yuan per ton. In actual operations, it is currently recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On December 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.89 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan to 1,6875 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin lead spot prices and premiums also changed by 50 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan per ton, while the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells changed by 50 yuan, 25 yuan, and 0 yuan per ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On December 23, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,920 yuan per ton and closed at 16,995 yuan per ton, up 75 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 44,610 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 58,086 lots, a decrease of 1,500 lots. During the night session, it opened at 17,030 yuan per ton and closed at 17,050 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan from the afternoon close. Near the end of the year, some traders stopped trading for inventory checks after selling out their stocks, and downstream buyers mainly consumed inventories or took delivery of long - term contracts, resulting in overall light market trading [2] - **Inventory**: On December 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the previous week. As of December 23, the LME lead inventory was 253,100 tons, a decrease of 2,675 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies. The expected trading range for the main contract is 16,750 - 17,100 yuan per ton [4] - **Options Strategy**: Sell a wide straddle [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-24 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现放量增仓、强势上行走势，核心驱动是印尼镍矿配额大幅缩减的消息发酵，叠 加外盘带动与多头资金入场，短期偏强氛围显著。后续需关注印尼配额政策落地细节、2026 年矿产基准价格计算 公式修订进展。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，近期镍矿市场新招标成交落地，镍矿价格整体持稳。国内南部1.3%镍矿成交落地至 CIF39.5美元。菲律宾方面，北部Benguet矿山1.3%镍矿招标落地至FOB33.5美元。装船出货方面，考虑降雨天气影 响，效率尚可。下游铁厂仍处利润亏损，对原料镍矿采购压价心态或将放缓。印尼方面，12月(二期)内贸基准价走 跌0.11-0.18美元/吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+25，升水区间多在+25-26，预计持平。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格128400元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨3500元/吨。现货交投依然偏冷，下游拿 货谨慎，各品牌精炼镍现货升贴水多持稳。其中金川镍升水变化200元/吨至6900元/吨，进口镍升水变化0元/吨至400 元/吨，镍豆升水为 2450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为38922（1 ...

光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美元至 | | | | 58.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.31 美元 | | | | 至 62.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.50%。SC2602 以 442.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 0.6 元/桶，涨幅为 0.14%。受圣诞假期影响，贝克休斯本周提前三 | | | | 天发布钻机数量报告。数据显示，截至 12 月 23 日当周，作为未 | | | | 来产量先行指标的油气钻机总数增加 3 座，至 545 座，但仍较上 | | | | 年同期减少 44 座，降幅为 7.5%。贝克休斯表示，本周美国石油钻 | | | 原油 | 机数增加 3 座，至 409 座；天然气钻井数持平于 127 座。美国商 | 震荡 | | | 务部经济分析局公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国 | | | | GDP 环比按年率计算增长 4.3 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 钢材：市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材期货维持震荡运行，现货方面，钢材现货成交偏弱，环比回落，投机情绪不足，钢材价格 基本持平。 供需与逻辑：目前建材供需基本面持续改善，淡季消费维持韧性，产量小幅回升，库存延续回落，伴随各地持续 降温，建材需求仍有季节性回落预期。板材产量环比回落，消费及出口小幅下滑，但是仍存韧性，去库斜率不及 往年同期，高库存持续压制板材价格表现，卷螺差持续走弱。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪谨慎，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报价 多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。全国主港铁矿累计成交118.7万吨，环比上涨17.64%；远期现货：远期现货累 计成交98.0万吨（6笔），环比下跌12.50%(其中矿山成交量为57万吨)。 供需与逻辑：目前铁矿石供需矛盾仍在持续积累，高估值下非主流发运持续高位，总库存连续攀 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 玻璃纯碱：现货需求偏弱，玻碱窄幅震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 供需与逻辑：上周硅铁产量大幅回落，企业主动调整生产节奏，应对需求下滑。硅铁企业库存压力得到缓解，硅 铁基本面矛盾有所缓和。关注后续硅铁去库情况、成本端变化及产区政策情况。 策略 硅锰方面：震荡 硅铁方面：震荡 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the daily statistics of futures and options markets for various commodities, including agricultural products, energy chemicals, black commodities, and metals, on December 23, 2025, covering data such as closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [1][5][9][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Data 3.1.1 Futures Market Statistics - The closing prices of various agricultural products showed different trends, with cotton, apple, and palm oil rising by 70, 81, and 72 respectively, while peanut, egg, and红枣 fell by 12, 12, and 70 respectively [1] - The trading volumes and open interests of most varieties also changed, with corn starch and soybean meal showing significant changes in trading volume and open interest [1] 3.1.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of options for different agricultural products had different degrees of change, and the Put - Call Ratios (PCR) also showed different trends [3] 3.1.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of different agricultural products' options were presented, with the implied volatilities of some varieties such as palm oil and soybean meal having certain changes [4] 3.2 Energy Chemical Data 3.2.1 Futures Market Statistics - Among energy chemical products, PVC, short - fiber, and urea rose by 147, 20, and 23 respectively, while LPG, BR rubber, and asphalt fell by 94, 55, and 18 respectively [5] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties also changed, with PVC and methanol showing relatively large changes in trading volume [5] 3.2.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of energy chemical options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of PTA options having a certain increase [6][7] 3.2.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of energy chemical options were provided, with the implied volatilities of some varieties like PTA and PVC being relatively high [8] 3.3 Black Data 3.3.1 Futures Market Statistics - In the black commodity market, silicon iron and rebar rose by 4 and 2 respectively, while manganese silicon and iron ore fell by 18 and 3 respectively [9] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties changed, with the trading volume of iron ore decreasing significantly [9] 3.3.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of black commodity options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of iron ore options increasing [9] 3.3.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of black commodity options were presented, with the implied volatility of rebar options having a relatively large change [10] 3.4 Metal Data 3.4.1 Futures Market Statistics - Among metals, silver, nickel, and tin rose by 231, 1740, and 3490 respectively, while copper, zinc, and aluminum fell by 390, 25, and 25 respectively [11] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties changed, with the trading volume of silver decreasing significantly [11] 3.4.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of metal options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of silver options increasing [12] 3.4.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of metal options were provided, with the implied volatility of silver being relatively high [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move rather than a temporary measure, crucial for China's long-term development and stability [2] - Domestic demand has become the main driving force for China's economic growth, contributing over 90% to economic growth during the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans, with final consumption and capital formation contributing 55% and 38% respectively [2] - The projected scale of final consumption and capital formation for 2024 is 76.3 trillion yuan and 54.8 trillion yuan, which are 2.7 times and 2.2 times that of 2012 [2] Group 2 - The futures market can support the strategy of expanding domestic demand by promoting effective investment and consumption [3] - The futures market helps enterprises conduct effective investments and improve supply quality by providing forward-looking price signals and diverse hedging methods [3] - Price volatility in commodities, such as new energy materials, has made it difficult for companies to lock in raw material costs, impacting capacity planning [3] Group 3 - The futures market enhances the stability of residents' wealth, contributing to the realization of the wealth effect by serving as an effective tool for diversified investment [4] - The financial futures market in China has been expanding, providing effective tools for various financial institutions to manage market risks [4] - The "insurance + futures" model has been successfully implemented for 10 years, helping to stabilize and increase farmers' income, thus releasing rural consumption potential [4] Group 4 - The futures market needs to enrich the supply of futures varieties and improve the market system to connect enterprises and end consumers effectively [5] - There is a lack of corresponding futures varieties for emerging industries and regional specialty agricultural products, which hinders hedging needs [5] - Innovative service models are required to address the challenges faced by small and micro enterprises in participating in the futures market [5] Group 5 - The design and promotion of wealth management products that focus on diversified investment and risk hedging should be innovated by futures operating institutions [6] - Investor education should be advanced to cultivate a risk management culture, as many market participants have a limited understanding of futures tools [6] - The futures market's development history is relatively short, and there is a need for more effective and diverse investor education methods [6]

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢高做空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空思路，远月谨慎看 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given content 2. Core Views - For the sugar market, the external ICE raw sugar strengthened, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar also rose due to external influence. The domestic sugar - making process is progressing smoothly, and the short - term fundamentals are stable. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and future attention should be paid to new information from the international sugar market [1] - Regarding the jujube market, the acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is nearing completion, and the supply of new jujubes in Hebei is increasing. The jujube futures price is bottoming out, but there are still few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [4] - In the rubber market, natural rubber is affected by the approaching end of the domestic harvest season and the overseas supply peak, along with port inventory accumulation, and is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Synthetic rubber is supported by raw material costs but has weak downstream acceptance, and the market may also enter a volatile phase [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar 3.1.1 Market Review - SR601 contract closed at 5256 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.59%, and 5295 yuan/ton at night; SR605 contract closed at 5155 yuan/ton, up 0.57%, and 5192 yuan/ton at night [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - The spot price of Guangxi white sugar was 5218 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5250 - 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5110 - 5230 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5690 - 5900 yuan/ton, with some prices up 20 yuan/ton [1] - As of now, 71 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 2025/26 season, 3 less than last year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 58.1 million tons, 1.3 million tons less than last year. It is expected that 73 sugar mills will start crushing this season, 1 less than the previous season [1] - As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 7.825 million tons, an increase of 1.697 million tons or 27.69% compared to the same period last year; 478 sugar mills have started crushing, slightly more than last year [1] - As of December 22, 2025, Thailand's cumulative cane crushing volume was 9.6636 million tons, a decrease of 1.6155 million tons or 14.32% compared to the same period last year; the sugar - containing rate was 11.38%, a decrease of 0.09% compared to last year; the sugar - producing rate was 8.437%, an increase of 0.024% compared to last year; sugar production was 0.8153 million tons, a decrease of 0.1336 million tons or 14.07% compared to last year [1] - Yesterday, there were 4479 sugar warrants in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the ICE raw sugar strengthened. After the Brazilian sugar price fell below the cost and the sugar - making ratio decreased rapidly, the raw sugar found strong support at 14 cents/pound. The backward Thai sugar - making data and the exit of short positions led to a rebound. In the long - run, there is still pressure on the upside [1] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar rose due to external influence. The domestic white sugar spot price stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term fundamentals are stable. Affected by the cost, "policy bottom", and capital outflow, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded. Future attention should be paid to new information from the international sugar market [1] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see for the SR605 contract, and partially take profits on the previously held call options [1] 3.2 Jujube 3.2.1 Market Review - CJ601 contract closed at 8640 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.63%; CJ605 contract closed at 8750 yuan/ton, down 0.79% [4] 3.2.2 Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 16108 tons, an increase of 318 tons or 2.01% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 34.68% compared to the same period last year [4] - The wholesale price of Hebei special - grade jujubes was 9.53 yuan/kg yesterday, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [4] - The number of arrival vehicles at Guangdong Ruyifang Market was 2 yesterday, 3 less than the previous day [4] - There were 1092 jujube warrants yesterday, unchanged from the previous day [4] 3.2.3 Market Logic - The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is nearing completion, and the supply of new jujubes in Hebei is increasing. After the previous negative factors were digested, the downward momentum of the jujube futures price weakened. However, as it has entered the seasonal inventory accumulation period and there is still some unsold inventory upstream, there are few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak [4] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract [4] 3.3 Rubber 3.3.1 Market Review - As of December 23, the RU2605 contract closed at 15290 yuan/ton, up 0.56%; the NR2602 contract closed at 12405 yuan/ton, up 0.40%; the BR2602 contract closed at 11175 yuan/ton, down 0.49% [5] 3.3.2 Important Information - Yesterday, the price of Thai raw material latex was 55.7 Thai baht/kg (- 0.29/- 0.54%), and the price of cup lump was 50.8 Thai baht/kg (0.049/0.1%); the price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13000 yuan/ton (0/0%); the price of Hainan latex for whole - milk rubber production was 14800 yuan/ton (0/0%), and the price of latex for concentrated latex production was 14800 yuan/ton (0/0%) [5] - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 4.989 million tons, an increase of 0.102 million tons or 2.08% compared to the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 0.775 million tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 4.214 million tons, an increase of 1.58%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points. As of December 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 11.52 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons or 2.6%. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 7.48 million tons, an increase of 2.5%. China's total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 4.04 million tons, an increase of 2.8% [5] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points compared to the previous week and 8.67 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points compared to the previous week and an increase of 3.72 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5] - Yesterday, the price of whole - milk rubber was 14950 yuan/ton (+ 100/0.67%); the price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1845 US dollars/ton (+ 10/0.54%), equivalent to 13011 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14520 yuan/ton (+ 50/0.35%) [5] - Yesterday, the price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 2885 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the price difference between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 770 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [5] - Yesterday, the delivered price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was about 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 7400 - 7450 yuan/ton [5] - Yesterday, the market prices of cis - polybutadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber rose steadily. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market remained stable at 10950 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market rose 50 yuan/ton to 11300 yuan/ton [5] 3.3.3 Market Logic - Natural rubber: It strengthened slightly yesterday. The domestic Hainan production area is gradually ending the harvest season, and the enthusiasm of factories to purchase rubber has decreased significantly. However, the overseas supply peak is coming, and there is still resistance to the rise of Thai raw materials. At the same time, the Qingdao port in China continues the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, natural rubber may continue to fluctuate in the short - term [5] - Synthetic rubber: The BR contract rose first and then fell yesterday, and the decline widened at night. The firm butadiene price provides strong cost support for synthetic rubber prices, but the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced goods is still weak, and traders lack confidence in raising prices to sell. Although the recent export transaction news of BR raw materials supports the rubber price, there is no obvious positive news in the actual fundamentals. The market may enter a volatile phase in the near future [5] 3.3.4 Trading Strategy - The RU main contract should focus on the 15000 - 15530 activity range; the NR main contract should focus on the 12250 - 12750 activity range; if the BR contract breaks through the 11000 support level today, it will look for the second support at 10700 [5]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-23，工业硅期货价格偏震荡走高，主力合约2601开于8600元/吨，最后收于8780元/吨，较前一 日结算变化（145）元/吨，变化（1.68）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓213776手，2025-12-22仓单 总数为9175手，较前一日变化156手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421# 硅在9500-9800（0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。 昆明、黄埔港、西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 SMM统计12月18日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.3万吨，较上周变化-1.43%。其中社会普通仓库13.8 万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨，社会交割仓库41.5万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货库部分）较上周减少1万 吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500 ...