金属板块普涨，镍不锈钢震荡走高 镍品种 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-22 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 2026-01-21日沪镍主力合约2602开于142600元/吨，收于143060元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.39%，当日成交量为 745668（+50522）手，持仓量为75892（-3113）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约整体表现为宽幅波动、尾盘收涨，多空博弈激烈，核心驱动来自宏观情绪、外盘联 动与供需预期的综合影响。日内有色金属及贵金属板块普涨，一定程度上带动了沪镍价格走势。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿价格延续上行态势，市场看涨与挺价情绪主导，实际成交价格重心进一步 上移。菲律宾矿山高报价持续引导市场。国内市场有1.5%品位镍矿以CIF57美元成交，另有大型工厂对该品位的心 理采购价位在58-59美元。同时，1.4%品位CIF53美元左右的报价已出现，但买方接受意愿较低，凸显市场博弈加 剧。此外，菲律宾南部矿山1.3%品位镍矿以FOB35.5美元的价格成交并运往印尼，矿端心态普遍看涨。印尼方面， 市场价格在前期大幅上调后暂时企稳。市场正在消化当 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, and procurement remains cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. - The pressure on the supply side is prominent, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$43.57 per ton. - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 55 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 15 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of -15 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 21, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,300 yuan/ton and closed at 24,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 146,086 lots, and the open interest was 121,693 lots. The highest price was 24,390 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,070 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 122,000 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from the previous period. - As of January 21, 2026, LME zinc inventory was 111,850 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Options: Sell put [7] Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House last week has slightly affected the market's outlook on the demand for non-ferrous metals, with the copper variety also being affected but with a relatively limited decline. Given the high copper prices, weak downstream demand, and recent obvious inventory accumulation, the copper price may temporarily enter a volatile pattern, with an expected trading range of 99,500 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On January 21, 2026, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,280 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 100,550 yuan/ton and closed at 100,260 yuan/ton, basically flat from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 280 - 80 yuan/ton to the current-month contract, with an average discount of 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 99,820 - 100,300 yuan/ton. The market supply was clearly differentiated, with good-quality copper like Guixi and Jinchuan selling quickly due to tight supply, and the price of wet-process copper remaining relatively firm. Downstream procurement showed structural characteristics, with leading enterprises being more active in purchasing, and some end-users showing significantly increased acceptance when the copper price was below 99,500 yuan/ton. The spot price is expected to remain stable today supported by the holders' willingness to hold prices [2] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: The situation in Greenland has taken a turn for the better. US President Trump announced an agreement framework with NATO Secretary-General Rutte on the Greenland issue. If implemented, it will benefit the US and all NATO member states. Trump also said that the tariff measures originally scheduled to take effect on February 1 will not be implemented, leading to a sharp rise in US stocks, with all three major indices up more than 1%. The EU Commission spokesperson said that the EU leaders' emergency summit will be held as planned on the evening of January 22 local time [3] - Economic Forecast: Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may remain on hold until Fed Chairman Powell's term ends in May. This view has shifted significantly from last month, when most respondents still expected at least one rate cut before March. However, most economists still expect at least two rate cuts later this year [3] - Mining: On January 21, Rio Tinto announced its Q4 2025 production results. The company's copper production in Q4 2025 was 240,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%; the annual production in 2025 was 883,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%, exceeding the upper limit of the revised guidance target (860,000 - 875,000 tons). This growth was mainly due to the successful production increase at the Oyu Tolgoi project, where the underground mine development project has been fully completed. On January 20, the Democratic Republic of the Congo announced that it has submitted a list of targeted mineral projects, including manganese, copper-cobalt, gold, and lithium projects, to the US for investment [4] - Smelting and Imports: On January 20, the spot price of LME copper showed a significant premium over the forward futures price, with the "Tom/next" spread reaching the highest level since the historical supply shortage in 2021. The spread once soared to a $100 premium, which usually indicates a surge in spot demand. This fluctuation has triggered a new round of shocks in the LME copper market. LME data shows that as of last Friday, the long positions held by three independent entities accounted for at least 30% of the January open contracts. If held to maturity, these positions will require the delivery of more than 130,000 tons of copper, exceeding the total inventory available for immediate withdrawal in the LME warehousing system [5] - Consumption: The copper price has been fluctuating in a narrow range. As the end of the month approaches, the downstream consumption boost is limited. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, the market demand is relatively stable. But since the overall orders of the downstream market this week have been mediocre, downstream enterprises have basically maintained a strategy of purchasing on a just-in-time basis when the price is low [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 8,875 tons to 159,400 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by -2,612 tons to 145,581 tons. On January 21, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the short - term price of low - protein soybeans has limited downside, while the upside of high - protein varieties will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery and policy trends [2] - For peanuts, the price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the pre - Spring Festival downstream stocking trends need to be observed [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4312.00 yuan/ton, down 26.00 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 128, up 26 (+32.14%) from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: High - protein soybean meal prices in Northeast China were stable, while low - protein varieties saw some holders lower prices. Spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang varied, with 39% protein medium - grain tower - loaded prices around 2.20 - 2.22 yuan/jin and 41% protein around 2.30 - 2.36 yuan/jin [1] - **Market Trends**: The price of the main soybean futures contract rebounded after a decline. Southern soybean - producing areas had a slightly stronger price trend, with tightening remaining stocks at the grass - roots level. The sales area prices were stable, and pre - holiday stocking had limited price support. State - reserve purchases were ending, and the two - way trading mechanism pressured low - protein soybean prices and curbed the bullish sentiment of high - protein varieties. The downstream and producing area prices were inverted, and holiday stocking had begun [2] Peanut Market Analysis - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7946.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan/ton (+0.51%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8018.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 946.00, up 40.00 (+4.42%) from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: The average price of general peanuts in the national market was 8018 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. Prices varied in different regions, and the average contract purchase price of oil - processing peanuts by oil mills was 7350 yuan/ton, with the Shandong average at 7263 yuan/ton and stable. Oil mills' quotes ranged from 6800 - 7900 yuan/ton [3] - **Market Trends**: The main peanut futures contract oscillated slightly upward. Snowy weather affected logistics, and farmers and traders were reluctant to sell, leading to a slight price increase in some producing areas, but the actual sales pace was slow. Food processing enterprises restocked as needed, and oil mills' purchase prices were stable, with some factories nearing the end of procurement. Inventory digestion was slower than in previous years [3][4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-22 供应持续收缩，成交氛围寡淡 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-21，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8730元/吨，最后收于8780元/吨，较前一日结算变化（45） 元/吨，变化（0.52）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓223687手，2026-01-20仓单总数为11955手，较前一日变化 384手。 供应端:本周，新疆某大厂传来减产消息，1月预计排产有明显下降，对工业硅价格产生利好推动。如果减产有效， 工业硅供给端收缩将成效显著，库存将由累库向去库转移。 策略 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，供需双减的情况下叠加煤炭价格与光伏产业链价格上涨传导效果，价格支撑明 显。上行高度取决于下游需求恢复和库存去化进度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 单边：短期区间操作 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2026-01-22 市场制约因素仍存，上行驱动有限 市场分析 1、\t1月21日地区价格：山东市场，4450-4500；东北市场，3910-4050；华北市场，4300-4410；华东市场，4270-4340； 沿江市场，4720-5030；西北市场，4250-4400；华南市场，4790-4920。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年2月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷610美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷601美元/吨，稳定，折合人民 币价格丙烷4702元/吨，涨16元/吨，丁烷4632元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年2月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷602美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷593美元/吨，稳定，折合人民 币价格丙烷4640元/吨，涨16元/吨，丁烷4570元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日国内液化气现货价格普遍下跌，整体氛围偏弱。其中，华东民用气市场主流成交价格出现下跌，醚后碳四市 场主流成交价格持稳。下游入市谨慎，心态较为观望，市场按需采购为主。整体来看，虽然外盘价格走势相对坚 挺，但内盘受到更多因素制约，一方面PDH等下游化工装置利 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-22 下游淡季需求偏弱，继续拖累价格走势 策略 单边：LLDPE中性，PP中性；宏观扰动减弱，市场情绪降温，市场重新回归基本面交易，短期或偏弱震荡为主 跨期：无 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6666元/吨（+26），PP主力合约收盘价为6485元/吨（+24），LL华北现货为6540 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6650元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6410元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-126元/吨（-26），LL 华东基差为-16元/吨（-76）， PP华东基差为-75元/吨（-24）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为81.6%（-2.1%），PP开工率为75.6%（+0.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为85.3元/吨（-100.9），PP油制生产利润为-444.7元/吨（-100.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为-644.4元/吨（-15.9）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为95.8元/吨（-27.1），PP进口利润为-403.7元/吨（+3.0），PP出口利润为-58.3美元/吨（-0.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为36.9% ...

1. Report's Investment Ratings for the Industry - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Short on rallies [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are moving sideways. The fundamentals of building materials have weakened, with lackluster demand and prominent off - season characteristics. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventories suppress price elasticity [1]. - Iron ore prices are moving sideways. Australian and Brazilian shipments have declined, and domestic arrivals have also decreased but remain at a historical high. Steel mill blast furnace hot metal production has dropped, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. There are uncertainties in the long - term due to potential supply shocks [2]. - Coking coal and coke prices are moving sideways. The first round of coke price increases has not been implemented. Steel mills have low willingness to replenish inventory. There is a game between steel and coke. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of inventory replenishment, which may support coke demand [4][5]. - Thermal coal prices are weakly operating. Terminal users are purchasing on - demand. Market sentiment is bearish. In the medium to long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3286 yuan/ton. In Hangzhou on Tuesday, rebar inventory was 470,000 tons, and the outbound volume was 36,000 tons. Nationwide building material transactions were 76,328 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand of building materials has weakened, with lackluster demand. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventories suppress price elasticity. Short - term market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to production cuts, winter storage, demand destocking, profits, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore prices moved sideways. Spot prices in Tangshan's imported iron ore market fell slightly, and the overall trading atmosphere was average [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and domestic arrivals also dropped but were still at a historical high. Affected by safety accidents, steel mill blast furnace hot metal production continued to fall. The 242 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the daily average hot metal output of sample steel mills decreased by 210 tons month - on - month. Port inventories continued to accumulate. There are uncertainties in the long - term due to supply shocks if liquidity - locking factors are removed. Short - term attention should be paid to subsequent negotiations and steel mill inventory replenishment [2]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke prices were stable with a slightly upward trend following steel. The main contract of coking coal futures closed at 1129 yuan/ton, and that of coke at 1683.5 yuan/ton. Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, and domestic coal mine production was relatively stable. Coke enterprises' procurement pace slowed down, and transactions were average. The first round of coke price increases has not been implemented [4][5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel mill profits are under pressure, and blast furnace operating rates and hot metal production continue to decline. The recent decline in raw material prices has repaired steel profits to some extent. Steel mills are still waiting and seeing about coke price increases. There is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may support coke demand. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have no prominent contradictions. Before the Spring Festival, the downward space of coking coal is limited, and it will continue to move sideways in the short term. Attention should be paid to coking coal supply policies, steel mill profits, coking profits, and finished product demand [5]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices in major production areas fell weakly. Terminal users such as metallurgical, chemical, and power plants purchased on - demand. Market sentiment was bearish. In the port area, coal prices were weakly operating. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined. In the import market, transactions were sluggish, and bid prices decreased [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Market sentiment is wait - and - see, and production area supply is gradually recovering. In the medium to long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Strategies - Glass investment strategy: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash investment strategy: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Silicomanganese investment strategy: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon investment strategy: Oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating. The resumption of production lines in the glass and soda ash sectors has led to a decline in their futures prices. The double - silicon market is suppressed by inventory, and the alloy prices are oscillating weakly [1][3] Group 3: Glass Market - Market performance: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, while the spot market quotes remained stable, and the trading atmosphere in both futures and spot markets was cold [1] - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market has improved slightly, but the terminal rigid demand for float glass is difficult to break through in the off - season. In the short term, the glass futures maintain a premium. The glass industry still needs to reduce prices to further cut production due to high inventory. Future focus is on cold - repair and speculative activities [1] Group 4: Soda Ash Market - Market performance: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. The spot market was cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market is increasing. New production capacity and the resumption of some devices have increased production, keeping the supply at a high level. The rigid demand from downstream float glass is average, and the demand improvement in photovoltaic glass is limited. If the weak fundamentals continue, soda ash will face further downward pressure. Future focus is on float glass production line changes and new soda ash production projects [1] Group 5: Silicomanganese Market - Market performance: The main contract of silicomanganese continued its weak oscillation yesterday, with limited price fluctuations and small trading volume changes. The 6517 silicomanganese price is 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market [3] - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but inventory pressure is still large, and new production capacity is being added. The supply - demand situation is still loose. There is an expected increase in pig iron production and pre - Spring Festival restocking by steel mills, which may improve demand. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs. Future focus is on manganese ore cost support and production changes [3] Group 6: Ferrosilicon Market - Market performance: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated yesterday. As the January steel procurement is coming to an end, the ferrosilicon market has adjusted slightly, with reduced enthusiasm from traders. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamental contradictions in the ferrosilicon market are controllable, and enterprises are actively reducing production loads. Considering steel mill复产 and winter storage restocking, demand is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi has affected market sentiment, but the expected decline in domestic electricity prices and overall over - capacity in the ferrosilicon industry will suppress price increases. Future focus is on inventory reduction and electricity price policies in production areas [3]

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3117 CNY/ton, up 6 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.19% and a reduction in open interest by 0.1 million contracts [3][12] - The spot prices remained stable, with Tangshan's ordinary billet at 2930 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar at 3210 CNY/ton, while the national construction material transaction volume was 76,300 tons [3][12] - Significant growth in exports of rebar and steel billets was noted, with December 2025 rebar exports at 2.1188 million tons, up 45.24%, and total exports for the year at 19.378 million tons, up 61.73% [3][12] - The overall market for rebar is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited inventory pressure but also weak driving forces, leading to expectations of narrow fluctuations in prices [3][12] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 784 CNY/ton, down 5.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.7% with a trading volume of 220,000 contracts and a reduction in open interest by 11,000 contracts [4][13] - The supply side shows a continued decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil, while other countries have increased their shipments, leading to a global decrease in total shipments [4][13] - Iron production has decreased by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons, with port and steel mill inventories continuing to accumulate [4][13] - The market is expected to experience a mixed trend due to the interplay of supply and demand factors [4][13] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1129 CNY/ton, up 5 CNY/ton, with a rise of 0.44% and a decrease in open interest by 17,288 contracts [5][15] - Spot prices in the Linfen Anze market increased by 20 CNY/ton, with low-sulfur premium coking coal priced at 1640 CNY/ton [5][15] - Domestic coal production remains stable, with an increase in pre-sale orders, providing some support for current coal prices [5][15] - There is a rigid demand for replenishment ahead of the Spring Festival, but purchasing activity has slowed down due to previous stockpiling and expectations of declining iron production [5][15] Coke - The coke futures contract closed at 1683.5 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton, with an increase of 0.6% and a slight reduction in open interest by 71 contracts [6][16] - The spot market for coke remains stable, with the price of premium metallurgical coke at the Rizhao port unchanged at 1450 CNY/ton [6][16] - Current production levels at coke enterprises are stable, but the trading atmosphere in the domestic market is generally weak, influenced by fluctuations in futures prices [6][16] - Steel mills are maintaining high inventory levels, leading to a focus on essential purchases only, with expectations of price fluctuations in the short term [6][16] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5786 CNY/ton, down 0.24%, with an increase in open interest by 25,227 contracts to 332,300 contracts [7][17] - Prices in various regions range from 5570 to 5750 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 30 CNY/ton in Tianjin and Jiangsu [7][17] - The overall market sentiment is weak, with a slight decline in manganese ore prices impacting cost support [7][17] - Demand during the steel procurement period provides some support, but actual consumption remains low compared to previous years [7][17] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5556 CNY/ton, up 0.4%, with a decrease in open interest by 1,555 contracts to 244,000 contracts [8][18] - Prices across regions are approximately 5250 to 5350 CNY/ton, with a 30 CNY/ton increase in Inner Mongolia [8][18] - The overall production of silicon iron remains stable, with weekly output at a five-year low [8][18] - Demand during the steel procurement period provides some support, but market sentiment remains weak with limited fundamental drivers [8][18]