Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2025) has shown strong resilience in China's macroeconomic performance despite facing complex internal and external challenges, with nominal GDP expected to exceed 140 trillion yuan by the end of this period, an increase of over 35 trillion yuan compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3][4][5] - During the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP experienced an average annual real growth rate of 5.5% and a nominal growth rate of 6.9%, with the nominal GDP growth rate projected to be around 4.5% for the entire year of 2025 [3][5][6] - The economic growth achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" have laid a solid material foundation for modernizing the economy and have provided strong support for stabilizing employment and improving people's livelihoods [4][5] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030) is crucial for achieving the strategic vision of reaching a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, with a minimum nominal GDP average growth rate requirement of 5% [9][10][14] - The core guiding principle for economic growth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to achieve a per capita GDP of 27,000 USD by 2035, reflecting a shift from focusing on total GDP growth to per capita income improvement [10][12][14] - To meet the 2035 target, the nominal GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" should ideally be around 6%, with a minimum requirement of 5%, depending on factors such as actual GDP growth, price levels, and exchange rate fluctuations [14][16][18] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" should consider setting clear economic growth targets to address demand insufficiency and promote supply-demand balance, which is essential for achieving full employment and improving living standards [19][20] - A comprehensive target system around nominal GDP growth should be established, including a core target of 5% nominal GDP growth and 4.8% real GDP growth, alongside specific goals for consumption and investment growth [21][22][23] - Policies should focus on expanding domestic demand, particularly through boosting consumption and stabilizing infrastructure investment, to ensure necessary growth rates are met [23][25][26]

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production increased, and Shandong's independent refineries' operating rates improved[2] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate and petroleum asphalt operating rates showed marginal declines[2] - Polyester operating rates remained stable, while tire production rates for both radial and semi-radial tires increased[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 37.6% year-on-year as of September 19, 2025, significantly up from the previous week[2] - The average selling price index for second-hand homes decreased by 0.69% in the last four weeks as of September 8, 2025[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 118.63 million yuan per day, up 58.6% year-on-year as of September 19, 2025[2] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 5.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous week[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 5.6% year-on-year, with a notable rise in execution rates[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 7.3% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 10.9% as of September 14, 2025[2] - South Korea's export value grew by 3.8% year-on-year in the first ten days of September, up 2.5 percentage points from August[2] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Price Index rose by 1.0%, with the black raw materials index increasing by 3.1%[2] - Rebar futures closed up 1.4%, while spot prices increased by 0.7%[2] - Coking coal futures rose by 7.6%, with Shanxi coking coal spot prices up by 2.8%[2]

Economic Overview - In August, China's exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of positive growth in monthly exports [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with a declining growth rate for three consecutive months [2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) saw a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in the first eight months, a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [2] Trade Performance - The total value of imports and exports in the first eight months increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with exports rising by 6.9% [5] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 10.6 trillion yuan, growing by 9.2% and accounting for 60.2% of total exports [5] - ASEAN became China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 4.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.7% [5] Consumer and Investment Trends - Retail sales growth declined from 6.4% in May to 3.4% in August, with restaurant revenue showing negative growth in some months [8] - Fixed asset investment growth fell from 4.2% in the first quarter to 0.5% in the first eight months, with private investment in real estate down by 16.7% [9] - The decline in investment is attributed to reduced real estate development, impacting overall investment growth [9] Policy Implications - Analysts suggest that to stimulate consumption, policies should focus on increasing employment and residents' income [2][4] - There is a call for significant expansion of government public product investment to boost infrastructure and improve overall economic conditions [10] - The government is expected to introduce new macroeconomic measures in the fourth quarter to stabilize economic growth and employment [4]

Industrial Production - China's industrial production shows marginal stabilization with daily average pig iron output and cement clinker capacity utilization rates increasing[2] - The operating rates for asphalt and most chemical products have rebounded, while only steel and construction materials show slight adjustments in output and apparent demand[2] - The textile and polyester operating rates have seasonally increased, along with the operating rates for both radial and bias tires[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 7.2% year-on-year as of September 12, with a 5.7 percentage point increase from the previous week[2] - The new home sales area in these cities has shown a 9.8% year-on-year growth since September, reversing from negative growth last month[2] - The listing price index for second-hand homes decreased by 0.59% month-on-month as of September 1[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to outperform last year's figures, with a 41.0% year-on-year increase in daily average revenue of 51.14 million yuan as of September 12[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 3.9% year-on-year, with a 4.5 percentage point increase from the previous week[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries grew by 11.0% year-on-year, although this was a slight decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous week[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 10.5% year-on-year as of September 7[2] - The export container freight rate index decreased by 2.1% week-on-week, with Shanghai and Ningbo's export container rates also declining[2] - South Korea's export value increased by 3.8% year-on-year in the first ten days of September, a 2.5 percentage point increase from August[2] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index fell by 0.5%, while the Nanhua Black Materials Index and Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Index rose by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively[2] - Rebar futures closed down by 0.5%, with spot prices also decreasing by 0.4%[2] - Coking coal futures dropped by 1.2%, and Shanxi coking coal spot prices fell by 1.4%[2]

Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for August indicates resilience under the easing of external demand pressures and the gradual withdrawal of extraordinary internal policies, with highlights in exports, production, and service consumption, while manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and durable goods consumption may continue to weaken due to policy rhythms [2][4]. Exports - It is expected that August dollar-denominated exports will grow by approximately 7% year-on-year, while imports will increase by around 2%. Key observations include a significant year-on-year increase of 9% in port container throughput and a manufacturing PMI average of 50.88% among major economies [4][14][15]. Production - The industrial growth rate for August is projected to be around 6.0%. High-energy-consuming industries are expected to remain stable, with a recovery in crude steel production growth. However, downstream consumption production may be relatively weak, as indicated by a PMI of 49.2% in the consumer goods sector [5][13]. Service Consumption - August is expected to see improved resident travel conditions, with increases in the business activity index and new orders in the railway and aviation sectors, likely boosting dining, accommodation, and entertainment consumption [5][21]. Social Financing and Investment - New social financing in August is anticipated to reach 2.1 trillion, an increase of 780 billion compared to the same period last year. The stock growth rate of social financing is expected to decline to around 8.7% [6][22]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to fall to around 1.0%, with manufacturing investment at 5.3% and real estate investment at -12.5% [6][18]. Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to decline to around -0.5% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to recover from -3.6% to approximately -2.9% year-on-year [7][11][12]. Durable Goods Consumption - The "old-for-new" policy is being reintroduced with refined subsidy arrangements, but durable goods consumption growth may slow. Retail sales growth is expected to be around 3.8%, with automotive sales declining by 3.5% [6][20]. Real Estate Sales - Real estate sales area growth is expected to be around -8.0%, with significant declines in sales figures for major property companies [19]. Financial Sector - The government bond issuance and corporate bond issuance in August are projected to be around 1.2 trillion, with a decrease in net financing for government bonds and corporate bonds compared to the previous year [22][24].

Demand - In August, external demand is expected to outperform internal demand, with exports projected to decline by 5.1% due to high base effects and tariff impacts, but the pressure is manageable due to improving external demand and market share gains[1] - Domestic consumption and manufacturing investment are expected to weaken, with retail sales projected to grow by only 4.4% year-on-year, influenced by limited use of subsidy funds[1][27] - High-frequency indicators show that retail sales of passenger cars and white goods in August increased by only 0.8% and 2.1% year-on-year, respectively[27] Supply - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August, indicating sustained production activity, with the production index increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 50.8%[3][45] - Industries with high external demand, such as textiles and specialized equipment, showed significant production index increases of 23.6 percentage points to 57.1% and 8.6 percentage points to 63.9%, respectively[49] - Industrial added value is expected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year in August, supported by resilient indicators in the export chain[4][54] Inflation - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show limited year-on-year improvement at -2.9%, despite rising commodity prices and a low base effect, with the main raw material purchase price index increasing by 1.8 percentage points to 53.3%[5][61] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to decline by 0.4% year-on-year in August, constrained by weak food prices and downstream PPI[6]

Economic Indicators - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, and the Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [1][2] - The Manufacturing PMI has been below the critical line for five consecutive months, indicating ongoing economic downward pressure [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production index rose to 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, while the new orders index increased to 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points [2] - The recovery in manufacturing is attributed to the easing of adverse weather conditions and the resumption of the third batch of "national subsidies" for durable consumer goods [2][3] - The prices of major raw materials and factory output prices rose to 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, indicating a continuous improvement in manufacturing market prices [2][3] Service Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 50.3%, with the service sector index reaching 50.5%, marking a significant recovery [4] - The summer consumption effect has positively impacted sectors such as transportation and hospitality, with related indices remaining above 60.0% [4][5] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 57.0%, indicating optimism among service enterprises regarding market prospects [5] Construction Sector - The construction sector's business activity index declined due to ongoing rainy weather, although it remains above 53%, indicating sustained growth in infrastructure-related activities [5] - The construction PMI is expected to rise into the expansion zone as weather conditions improve and growth stabilization policies take effect [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Export Throughput Maintains Resilience, Price Trends Diverge [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 - Analysts: Zhang Jiqiang, Wu Jing, Wu Yuhang - Contact: Li Zihao Core Viewpoints - In the third week of August, external demand showed high throughput year-on-year, but freight rates were weak with a widening decline. The real estate market had mixed performance in transactions, with new and second-hand housing sales continuing to decline year-on-year, and housing prices yet to stabilize. On the production side, the industrial freight volume was good, coal prices rose, and production maintained a differentiated resilience. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand improved marginally, while black metal supply and demand were weak. In the consumption sector, travel remained resilient, and automobile consumption increased slightly. Prices of crude oil were significantly affected by external factors, and the fundamentals restricted black metal prices, while Powell's dovish signals supported copper prices [2]. Summary by Category Consumption - Travel maintained a high level, with increases in subway ridership, congestion delay index, and flight operation rates similar to the previous year. Automobile consumption increased slightly, textile consumption recovered, and express delivery pick-up volume remained high [3]. Real Estate - Real estate transactions were differentiated. New housing transactions were basically flat, with second-tier cities leading. Second-hand housing transactions recovered, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu. The listing price and quantity of second-hand housing both decreased, and the land premium rate increased while land transactions decreased [4][6]. Production - Freight volume remained high, and the data of operating rates were differentiated. In the power sector, coal consumption increased, hydropower decreased, and coal prices rose. In the construction industry, the funds in place increased year-on-year, cement supply and demand improved, black metal supply and demand declined, and asphalt operating rates decreased [5][13][14]. External Demand - Port throughput remained high, but freight rates declined. The cumulative cargo throughput and container throughput of ports were at a high level. The RJ/CRB index increased year-on-year, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased, and international route freight rates weakened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of August increased by 7.62% year-on-year, and Vietnam's exports in the first half of August increased by 15.56% year-on-year [5]. Prices - The prices of agricultural products, crude oil, and cement increased, while the prices of black metals were differentiated, and the prices of non-ferrous metals and glass decreased. The increase in crude oil prices was due to geopolitical risks and increased demand, while the differentiation of black metal prices was affected by supply and demand and policies [20][21].

Revenue Insights - In July, general public budget revenue reached 2.03 trillion, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, the first positive growth since the beginning of the year[3] - Monthly revenue growth rebounded significantly by 3.0 percentage points to a new high of 2.6%[3] - Tax revenue increased by 4.0 percentage points to 5.0%, the highest monthly figure since December of the previous year[3] Tax Contributions - The contribution of stamp duty saw a notable improvement, significantly influenced by favorable capital market performance in July[3] - Non-tax revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12.9%, exacerbating the overall revenue growth pressure[3] - Value-added tax contribution fell by 0.1 percentage points, highlighting ongoing domestic demand weakness and low inflation impact on corporate revenues[3] Fiscal Expenditure and Gaps - Fiscal expenditure in July rose by 2.7 percentage points to 3.0%, with most major expenditure areas showing varying degrees of increase[12] - The budget revenue-expenditure gap narrowed slightly to 2.49 trillion, but remains substantial, necessitating continued government bond financing[12] - Cumulative fiscal deficit from January to July expanded by 1.83 trillion, with government debt financing reaching 67.1% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the previous two years[26] Real Estate and Land Revenue - Government fund budget revenue fell sharply by 11.9% year-on-year to 8.9%, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in land transfer revenue[18] - The contribution of land transfer revenue to government fund budget revenue decreased by 11.1 percentage points to 5.3%[18] - The real estate market remains unstable, with significant imbalances in housing price-to-income ratios in major cities, affecting land market activity[18] Future Outlook - If domestic and external demand continues to decline, there is a pressing need for the central government to adopt a more aggressive fiscal expansion strategy[26] - The potential impact of new tariffs from the U.S. on exports necessitates ongoing monitoring of economic indicators[26] - The overall economic environment suggests that substantial improvements in fiscal revenue are unlikely in the coming months[3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for three consecutive months, indicating a stable monetary policy environment amid economic fluctuations [1] Group 1: Loan Prime Rate (LPR) - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for three months [1] - The stability in LPR suggests a cautious approach by the central bank in response to current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - According to Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, macroeconomic data showed a downward trend in July, with potential external demand slowdown ahead [1] - There is an expectation for future policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which may create room for a reduction in policy rates and LPR quotes [1]