Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures have shown a significant increase, with the main contract rising over 5% in early trading on November 19, reaching a price of 98,880 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures has been on an upward trend, indicating strong market demand [1] - As of 9:57 AM on November 19, the price of lithium carbonate futures reached 98,880 yuan per ton, reflecting a notable price movement [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1926.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Different futures varieties showed various trends affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 18, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index had three consecutive negative daily K - lines. The CSI 300 Index remained weak, closing at 4568.19, down 29.86 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On November 18, the weighted coke index returned to a weak trend, closing at 1685.2, down 47.6. Supply continued to shrink due to coking losses, environmental inspections, and coal source shortages, while the increase in molten iron to 236 tons supported the rigid demand for coke [2][4]. - Coking Coal: On November 18, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1186.1 yuan, down 42.8. The resumption of production in some Shanxi coal mines led to a slight increase in coking coal output, and the passage of Mongolian coal at ports returned to a high level. The high - price procurement by downstream coking coal slowed down but was mainly for rigid demand, and coal mines had sufficient pre - sales and low inventories [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors after a large short - term increase, ICE sugar oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and the reduction of spot prices, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. After a large short - term decline, the contract oscillated and sorted out slightly lower at night. The ISO predicted a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption only increasing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. India's sugar production accelerated, and the new - season sugar output was expected to increase to 31.5 million tons, with possible exports of 2 - 2.5 million tons [4]. Rubber - Affected by technical factors after a large increase in the previous trading day, Shanghai rubber oscillated and sorted out slightly higher on Tuesday and oscillated slightly higher at night due to capital effects. In October 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 97.951 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to October, the production increased by 1% year - on - year to 9.96421 billion pieces. In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [4]. Palm Oil - On November 18, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a low level, and the oscillation range was slightly higher than the previous day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line with upper and lower shadows, closing at 8708, up 0.32% from the previous day. Last week, the arrival of palm oil in China increased while the demand did not keep up, resulting in inventory accumulation. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory was 574,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous week, and the contract volume was 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week [5]. Live Pigs - On November 18, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,535 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The inventory of breeding sows remained high, corresponding to an increase in live - pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms and the resumption of the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises increased short - term supply pressure. The decrease in temperature would boost pork consumption to some extent, but the short - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [5]. Soybean Meal - International market: On November 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. As of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96%. As of November 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% in the same period last year, and the estimated Brazilian soybean output was 176.7 million tons. - Domestic market: On November 18, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The short - term arrival of imported soybeans was sufficient, the domestic oil - mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons and needed to be reduced [5]. Shanghai Copper - The US government ended the shutdown, and the Fed took a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate cut in December falling below 50%. In October, China's manufacturing production slowed down. The supply side remained tight, and although traditional consumption areas were weak, strong demand in new - energy vehicles and power - grid construction provided bottom - line support for copper prices [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 18, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 18 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. A 300,000 - spindle cotton - spinning project started in Jinghe County, Xinjiang [5]. Logs - On November 18, the Log 2601 contract opened at 792, with a minimum of 782.5, a maximum of 792.5, and closed at 785, with a daily reduction of 859 lots. The spot - market prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 740 yuan/cubic meter, and the prices of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 760 yuan/cubic meter. In October, the log import volume decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6]. Iron Ore - On November 18, the Iron Ore 2601 main contract oscillated and rose, up 1.41%, closing at 792 yuan. The iron - ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly, the arrival volume decreased, and the molten - iron output stopped falling and increased. The short - term iron - ore price was in an oscillating trend [7]. Asphalt - On November 18, the Asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.36%, closing at 3,032 yuan. The asphalt supply continued to decrease, the inventory was being reduced, and the terminal demand remained weak due to cold and snowy weather, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [7]. Steel - On November 18, rb2601 closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton. The third round and fifth batch of central environmental - protection inspections started, which might reduce steel supply in the short term and support steel prices [7]. Alumina - On November 18, ao2601 closed at 2,780 yuan/ton. The spot price stopped falling, and downstream procurement accelerated. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the alumina price was in a weak oscillation [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 18, al2601 closed at 21,465 yuan/ton. The end of the US government shutdown increased the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate decision. The hawkish stance of the Fed put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The decline in aluminum prices led to a slight recovery in consumption, but high prices still restricted consumption, and the expected increase in aluminum - ingot supply in the off - season increased the pressure of inventory accumulation [7].

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on November 18, 2025, covering the performance, market overview, and analysis of various domestic futures contracts [3]. Market Performance Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 18, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates and iron ore rose over 1%, while lithium carbonate and BR rubber rose nearly 1%. In terms of declines, coking coal fell nearly 4%, and the container shipping index (European line), coke, Shanghai silver, and double-coated paper fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) main contract fell 0.41%, the SSE 50 (IH) main contract fell 0.23%, the CSI 500 (IC) main contract fell 0.85%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) main contract fell 0.69%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5-year (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year (T) main contract rose 0.03%, and the 30-year (TL) main contract rose 0.06% [6][7]. Capital Flows - As of 15:24 on November 18, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, the CSI 500 2512 had an inflow of 1.722 billion yuan, the CSI 300 2512 had an inflow of 1.254 billion yuan, and the CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 890 million yuan. In terms of outflows, the Shanghai gold 2512 had an outflow of 3.546 billion yuan, the lithium carbonate 2601 had an outflow of 2.323 billion yuan, and the Shanghai copper 2512 had an outflow of 1.474 billion yuan [7]. Market Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and closed low, with weak intraday fluctuations. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. However, as some smelters resume production in October and copper prices rise, production is expected to increase. Scrap copper supply increases to make up for the shortage of copper ore resources. On the demand side, rising copper prices limit downstream consumption, and except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is weak. The probability of a December interest rate cut has dropped significantly, causing market confidence to decline and putting pressure on the market. Copper production is expected to increase, while demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season. Before the probability of a rate cut changes, copper prices will be weakly adjusted [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, showing intraday strength. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 87,400 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 85,050 yuan/ton, also up 1,250 yuan/ton. Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo is expected to resume production after December. In October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,790 tons. As of November 14, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.34% higher than the same period last year. The domestic production of energy - storage batteries in October was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The market is optimistic about energy - storage demand. Lithium carbonate inventory has been decreasing for weeks, and the number of warehouse receipts has dropped significantly. The market sentiment has been boosted, but the potential resumption of Jiaxiaowo's production is a negative factor. The strong demand drives the price to oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream demand [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as in October and November, and will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has lowered the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in December. The peak demand season has ended, and US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected. US crude oil production has reached a new high. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and India may reduce its imports of Russian oil. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Libya may disrupt supply. However, the market is worried about demand, and the supply - surplus situation in the crude oil market has become more obvious. The price of crude oil is expected to oscillate weakly [12][13]. Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% last week, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.0%. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, but road construction is restricted by funds and weather. National shipments decreased by 31.02% to 213,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has slightly increased but remains at a low level. Some refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and demand will weaken further. With the oversupply of crude oil, the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.14 percentage points to 53.28%, still at a relatively low level. The operating rate of the plastic - weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%. On November 18, new maintenance devices were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to about 82%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn remained at about 24%. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level. Although the crude oil price rebounded after a decline, the increase is limited due to the oversupply of crude oil. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream orders have limited follow - up. PP is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Plastic - On November 18, some maintenance devices of plastics restarted, and the operating rate rose to about 88%. As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The peak season of the agricultural film industry is not as good as expected, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. The plastic price is expected to oscillate weakly [17][18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has slightly declined. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, but the upcoming anti - dumping tax has made traders cautious. Social inventories have slightly decreased but remain high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the PVC industry lacks actual policies. The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened flat and closed low. The spot price in the Shanxi market increased, and the import volume in October decreased year - on - year. Although the Mongolian border will be closed for one day on November 21, the customs clearance volume remains high, and domestic coal production is increasing. Mines and coke enterprises are reducing inventories, while steel mills are increasing inventories. Coke enterprises are facing losses, and their production enthusiasm has decreased. Although steel mill production has increased, the short - term demand for coking coal is pessimistic. Coking coal is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term, but the downside is limited due to upcoming environmental inspections [20][21]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed high, with a strong oscillation. The futures rebound has boosted market sentiment, and downstream agricultural dealers are increasing low - price fertilizer reserves. The supply is still abundant, and production is expected to increase. Coal prices are rising, but the increase is narrowing. Downstream dealers are more active in purchasing, and although the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has decreased due to environmental inspections, it is expected to improve after the inspections end. The cost is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The international urea market has changed, and the price of urea is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited by high daily production [22].

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil futures contract 2512 experienced a night session increase of 0.28%, closing at 460.00 RMB per barrel [1] - The night session for Shanghai gold futures also saw a slight increase of 0.04% [1] - Conversely, Shanghai silver futures recorded a decrease of 0.17% during the night session [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a mixed performance in the domestic futures market, with lithium carbonate reaching a limit-up increase of 9% and a strong market sentiment in upstream and downstream operations [1][2] - On November 14, the futures warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate recorded 27,170 contracts, a decrease of 338 contracts from the previous trading day, indicating a continuous reduction in inventory over several weeks [1] - The forecast for November suggests a reduction of over 12,000 tons in inventory, while December is expected to see a further reduction of 8,000 tons if the production at the "Jianxiawo" site does not resume [1] Group 2 - The lithium carbonate price is expected to have strong support from the fundamentals, reflecting a positive outlook for the market [1] - In the futures market, the shipping index (European line) increased by over 6%, while other commodities such as silicon iron, iron ore, coke, rebar, and hot-rolled steel also saw gains exceeding 1% [2] - Conversely, there were notable declines in prices for silver, gold, and polysilicon, with silver dropping over 4% and gold falling over 3% [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on November 17, with lithium carbonate and the shipping index (European line) rising over 7% [1] - Silicon iron, iron ore, coke, rebar, and hot-rolled steel all increased by more than 1% [1] - On the downside, silver futures fell over 3%, while gold, rapeseed meal, caustic soda, polysilicon, and methanol dropped by more than 2% [1]

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - The energy and chemical sectors experienced a decline, while basic and precious metals saw gains, with agricultural products showing mixed results [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 2.71% and crude oil by 0.69%, while iron ore rose by 1.58% and coking coal dropped by 6.14% [1] - The basic metals sector saw lithium carbonate increase by 6.15%, copper by 1.12%, and aluminum by 0.97%, while precious metals like gold and silver rose by 3.47% and 7.55% respectively [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - International crude oil prices exhibited a "rise then fall" trend, influenced by geopolitical disturbances and OPEC's production decisions [2] - OPEC+ maintained a moderate production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November, while the U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day [2] - The overall demand for oil remains weak, with U.S. refinery utilization at 89.4%, reflecting a marginal improvement but still low compared to previous years [2] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market Insights - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a strong upward trend due to increased demand and declining inventory levels, with a weekly increase of 6.15% [4] - Domestic lithium carbonate production rose by 9.31% in October, but the operating rate was only 43%, indicating constraints in capacity release [4] - The demand for lithium carbonate is significantly driven by the automotive battery sector, with a notable increase in battery installation and electric vehicle production [4][5] Group 4: Macroeconomic Policy Developments - October's macroeconomic data indicates a gradual recovery in demand, supported by policy measures, with social financing increasing by 8,150 billion yuan [7] - The central bank may consider lowering reserve requirements or interest rates to stimulate demand, with a focus on stabilizing growth as a core policy goal [8] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown is expected to provide temporary certainty, but the long-term impact on economic data and policy decisions remains uncertain [9][10]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 7, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.25% to 3997.56, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.36% to 13404.06, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.51% to 3208.21. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1999.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 56.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index Futures: The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4678.79, a decrease of 14.61 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted coke index trended weakly, closing at 1785.9, a decrease of 12.2. The third round of price increases has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a fifth - round increase. Demand is stable with active replenishment from coke enterprises and most steel mills purchasing as needed [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1283.5 yuan, a decrease of 15.1. Prices have reached new highs this year. Supply is tight due to production cuts in some mines, and inventories are at low levels [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Global sugar supply surplus expectations continue to pressure sugar prices. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract closed slightly higher at night due to bargain - hunting. Pakistan will start the sugar - cane crushing season on November 15, 2025, and the Northern Region government has raised the sugar - cane price [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber closed slightly lower at night. As of October 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory increased by 135 tons, while the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1930 tons. The EU has launched an anti - subsidy investigation on Chinese tires [5]. 2.4 Palm Oil - On November

Core Viewpoint - Apple futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 8985.00 yuan, with a current price of 8977.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.87% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guosen Futures suggests that apple long positions should consider taking profits and adopting a wait-and-see approach due to the delayed new season apple listings and average supply quality from Shandong [2] - Green Dahan Futures recommends holding long positions in the AP2601 contract while configuring long call options for distant contracts, indicating a bullish outlook [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The new season apple listing has been generally delayed, with Shandong's supply being average and of lower quality, while the demand from merchants in Shaanxi is relatively high, leading to most quality apples being pre-ordered [2] - The overall quality of apples from Shandong is mixed, with chaotic pricing, while the trading activity in Liaoning is currently vibrant, with Shandong merchants continuing to adjust their purchases based on quality [2]

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with live hogs rising over 2% [1] - International copper and European shipping rates increased nearly 2% [1] - Egg prices, Shanghai copper, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and fuel oil all rose over 1% [1] Group 2 - Red dates and Shanghai gold experienced declines of over 1% [1]