Group 1 - The beer industry is undergoing a deep adjustment cycle in 2024, facing continuous demand contraction pressure in the first three quarters, exacerbated by extreme weather disturbances and channel deleveraging, leading to a "demand-inventory-funding" triple pressure [1] - A turning point is expected to begin in late Q3 2024, with policy shifts and improved consumer income expectations stabilizing the restaurant channel's closure rate [1] - Leading companies are successfully building new growth drivers through balance sheet repair and proactive operational strategy adjustments, including accelerated transformation towards non-on-premise channels and deepening digital retail layouts [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the beer sector's revenue reached 20.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.53 billion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in both volume and price [1] - Short-term expectations indicate a rebound in beer sales due to the upcoming consumption peak and macro policy improvements, with channel replenishment and on-premise recovery creating a synergistic effect [2] - Long-term, ongoing consumption stimulus policies, such as restaurant consumption vouchers, are anticipated to directly benefit beer consumption, while the high-end market still holds significant potential for price upgrades [2]

纺织服装行业：2024 及 2025Q1 业绩承压， 未来愈加明朗 2025 年 5 月 19 日 看好/维持 纺织服装 行业报告 | 分析师 | 刘田田 电话：010-66554038 邮箱：liutt@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521010001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 沈逸伦 电话：010-66554044 邮箱：shenyl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480523060001 | 投资摘要： 2024 年纺织逐季走弱，服装整体承压。纺织制造板块 2024 年收入 1181 亿元，同比+8.37%，归母净利润 92.91 亿元，同比 +8.6%，其中 Q4 单季度板块收入 285 亿元，同比+2.29%；归母净利润 17.17 亿元，同比-10.80%，24 年是逐季度走弱的情 况，主要系外需走弱。服装家纺板块 2024 年收入约 1528 亿元，同比-2.2%，利润 101.3 亿元，同比-29.95%。其中 Q4 单 季度板块收入 466.9 亿元，同比-2.9%，归母净利润 5.6 亿元，同比-80%。整体上 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since the second quarter of 2024, the revenue growth of listed liquor companies has significantly slowed down due to weak industry consumption demand, alongside increased competition and diminished scale effects impacting profitability [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall sales volume of the liquor industry during the Spring Festival has shown a certain degree of narrowing in the year-on-year decline [1] - If future demand stabilizes gradually, considering the base effect in 2024, it is expected that the performance of liquor companies may improve starting from the third quarter of 2025 [1] Group 2: Company Strategies - Leading liquor companies are continuously enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend rates, share buybacks, and stock purchases, thereby increasing investment safety margins [1] - Anticipation of forthcoming consumption stimulus policies and expectations of continued macroeconomic recovery support the recommendation to maintain allocations in leading liquor enterprises [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - Overall consumer demand remains stable in Q1 2025, with a recommendation to pay attention to subsequent national consumption stimulus policies [4] - The beauty and personal care sector showed a mixed performance, with the personal care segment performing the best [9][10] - The textile and apparel sector maintained stable growth, with outdoor brands performing well [18][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Beauty and Personal Care Sector - In Q1 2025, the retail sales of cosmetics in China grew by 3.2% year-on-year, lower than the overall consumer goods retail sales growth of 4.6% [5][6] - The beauty sector's revenue and net profit reached 13.5 billion and 1.89 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.2% and -12.3% [9][10] - The cosmetics segment saw a revenue of 9.62 billion, down 3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.06 billion, down 20.7% [10] - The medical beauty segment's revenue was 2.43 billion, down 0.2%, with a net profit of 0.71 billion, down 0.5% [10] - The personal care segment achieved a revenue of 1.45 billion, up 29.4%, and a net profit of 0.13 billion, up 12.6% [10] Textile and Apparel Sector - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles grew by 3.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, below the overall consumer goods retail sales growth of 4.6% [13][18] - The textile and apparel sector's revenue and net profit saw year-on-year changes of +1.66% and -10.72% respectively [18] - The OEM segment's revenue grew by 13.02% year-on-year, while the brand segment's revenue decreased by 3.90% [19][21] - The home textile segment's revenue decreased by 3.98% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 12.35% [21]

Summary of the Conference Call for Yuehai Investment Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Yuehai Investment, focusing on its financial performance and strategic outlook for 2025. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Yuehai Investment reported a loss of 17 million due to the impact of the distribution of Yuehai Zhidi, but future financial conditions are expected to improve as the company will no longer bear related financial impacts [2][4]. - The company's pre-tax profit increased by 2% and shareholder profit rose by 2.5%, despite a slight revenue decline of less than 1% [3]. Investment Property Valuation - The value of investment properties decreased by 10 million in Q1 2025, a smaller decline compared to 21 million in the same period last year, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [2][5]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Costs - The company has been actively reducing capital expenditures and financial costs, with Q1 financial expenses decreasing by 77 million. It is anticipated that expenses will continue to decline throughout the year [2][6]. - Capital expenditure is planned to be 1.9 billion for 2024 and controlled within 2 billion for 2025, prioritizing debt repayment and dividends [2][8]. Water Pricing Adjustments - Water pricing adjustments are proceeding normally, with no significant impact on business operations. The company is actively pursuing favorable outcomes for water pricing negotiations at the Guangzhou Nansha Water Plant [2][7]. Revenue Trends - Water supply revenue in Shenzhen and Dongguan declined primarily due to a decrease in the RMB exchange rate and reduced water supply volumes. In contrast, Hong Kong saw a slight increase in supply volume, but the fee increase was limited [2][11]. Cash Flow and Business Segments - Operating cash flow is predominantly derived from the Chinese water business, accounting for approximately 80% of total cash inflow, although trade war pressures have affected high-end consumer segments [2][13][14]. - The mid-to-low-end market is performing relatively well, while high-end consumption is under pressure [2][15]. Debt Structure and Dividend Strategy - The company maintains a 65% dividend payout ratio and aims to reduce HKD-denominated debt, which currently constitutes a small percentage of total debt [2][22][23]. Future Outlook and Strategic Plans - The company is exploring acquisition opportunities for water assets but is selective, focusing on high-return projects [2][12]. - There are no immediate plans for significant new capital projects, with a focus on completing existing water projects [2][10]. Market Challenges - The company faces challenges in the high-end market due to economic pressures, while the mid-to-low-end market has growth limitations [2][19][20]. - The decline in rental rates for high-end commercial properties is attributed to reduced demand from high-end tenants [2][17]. Impact of External Factors - The decrease in electricity prices in Guangdong is a concern for the company's power generation assets, and there is a willingness to consider divesting these assets if suitable buyers are found [2][25]. Additional Important Information - The company has been preparing for future contract renewals and has gradually reduced investments in non-East River water projects over the past few years [2][24]. - The overall performance in Q1 2025 was stable, with clear impacts from external factors [2][26].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·旅游零售Ⅱ 中国中免（601888） 2025 一季报点评：海南降幅继续收窄，关注 市内店和消费政策效果 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 67,540 | 56,474 | 59,182 | 63,365 | 67,777 | | 同比（%） | 24.08 | (16.38) | 4.80 | 7.07 | 6.96 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,714 | 4,267 | 4,680 | 5,353 | 5,976 | | 同比（%） | 33.46 | (36.44) | 9.68 | 14.38 | 11.63 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.25 | 2.06 | 2.26 | 2.59 | 2.89 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 19.20 | 30.22 | 27.55 | 24.08 | 21.58 | [Table_Tag] ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 食品饮料 证券研究报告 食品饮料周报：政治局会议定调积极，看好饮料旺季催化 市场表现复盘 本周（4 月 21 日-4 月 25 日）食品饮料板块/沪深 300 涨跌幅分别-1.36%/+0.38%。具体板块来 看，本周零食（+4.50%）、软饮料（+2.21%）、其他酒类（+0.06%）、调味发酵品（-0.33%）、肉 制品（-0.53%）、啤酒（-0.72%）、保健品（-1.28%）、白酒 III（-1.75%）。 周观点更新 白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable performance in 2024 despite a weak macro consumption environment, with a projected revenue of 3.011 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 542 million yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year. The gross margin is expected to improve by 0.43 percentage points to 56.05% [1][3] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 95.8%, proposing a dividend of 6.2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 520 million yuan [1][3] - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to see a double-digit revenue decline, with net profit significantly impacted due to increased sales expenses [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 3.011 billion yuan, with a net profit of 542 million yuan. The gross margin improved to 56.05%, while the net margin decreased to 18.01% [1][4] - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to have a revenue of 536 million yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 56 million yuan, down 54.1% year-on-year [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by channel in 2024 showed steady growth in direct sales (+1.8%) and franchise sales (+1.4%), while online sales declined by 7.4%. Group purchases grew by 5.1% [2] - Revenue by product category indicated that the bedding category generated 1.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.6%, while the set category remained stable with a slight decrease of 0.17% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in wedding demand and consumer stimulus policies in 2025, with projected net profits of 550 million yuan, 587 million yuan, and 622 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][39] - The target price is maintained at 8.9 to 9.6 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14 to 15 times for 2025 [3][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the e-commerce industry, recommending a "Buy" rating for key players such as Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in consumer sentiment, with March 2025 retail sales reaching 40,940 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [2][9]. - Various consumption stimulus policies have been implemented since February 2025, leading to a notable release of consumer potential, particularly in urban areas where retail sales growth outpaced rural areas [6][9]. - The online retail sector continues to show improvement, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% in March 2025, indicating a sustained upward trend in e-commerce [6][17]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Data - March retail sales data indicates a total of 40,940 billion yuan, with a 5.9% year-on-year growth and a 1.9 percentage point increase from the previous month, surpassing expectations [2][12]. - Urban retail sales grew by 6.0% year-on-year, while rural sales increased by 5.3%, reflecting the effectiveness of stimulus policies [6][19]. Online Retail Performance - Online retail sales of physical goods reached 29,948 billion yuan in March, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% and an increase in market penetration to 24.0% of total retail sales [17][26]. - The growth in online retail is supported by a 20.3% increase in express delivery volume, indicating robust e-commerce activity [26][30]. Category Performance - Essential categories such as tobacco, grain and oil, and daily necessities saw significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 8.5%, 13.8%, and 8.8% respectively [34]. - In the discretionary spending category, home appliances and furniture experienced remarkable growth rates of 35.1% and 29.5% year-on-year, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [41][49].

Group 1 - The report highlights that in 2024, the total demand in the food and beverage industry is under pressure, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in social retail consumption, reflecting a significant slowdown compared to previous years [3][12] - The report anticipates that the food and beverage sector will see steady progress in 2025, supported by three main factors: increased consumer subsidies, potential valuation recovery, and accelerated industry innovation [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage industry is expected to benefit from a combination of internal and external factors, leading to a more resilient market outlook [3][36] Group 2 - The report identifies that the performance of the food and beverage sector has been mixed, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary spending remains volatile [12][30] - It notes that the liquor segment may see a strategic shift, with a focus on demand cultivation as the key to future growth [4][31] - The report suggests that the condiment sector could benefit from the recovery of the restaurant industry and the acceleration of chain operations, leading to increased market concentration [4][31] Group 3 - The report indicates that the dairy sector is poised for growth driven by strong domestic demand and a focus on product upgrades, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements and demand expansion [4][31] - It highlights that the snack food market remains fragmented, with supply chain advantages becoming more pronounced, and emphasizes the importance of revenue growth following scale expansion [4][31] - The beer segment is noted for its stable production but faces pressure on sales volume and pricing, with a focus on innovation and structural upgrades [4][31] Group 4 - The report discusses the overall market performance, indicating that the food and beverage sector experienced a cumulative decline of 8% in 2024, ranking it among the lowest in the industry [23][30] - It mentions that the food and beverage sector's revenue growth has been primarily driven by supply-side optimization, with demand remaining weak [30][31] - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors, with soft drinks and snacks showing double-digit growth, while liquor and processed foods faced declines [30][31]