研究所 弱势震荡，反弹乏力 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年11月30日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is influenced by a combination of factors including macro - economic conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and cost factors. The overall trend of aluminum prices may be affected by the balance of these factors, with potential for high - level fluctuations and support from low - level inventories. [5][28] - The 12 - month interest rate cut expectation has increased, and the long - term broad - money cycle may drive copper and potentially aluminum prices upward. Domestic economic stability is expected, and more growth - stabilizing policies are awaited. [11][14][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Outlook) - Pay attention to the changes in macro sentiment and the position of aluminum prices. [5][6] 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed different trends. Alumina futures prices continued to be weak, dropping to a minimum of 2,701 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy futures prices first rose and then fell, reaching a maximum of 22,160 yuan/ton and 21,390 yuan/ton respectively. [7][8] 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Situation) 3.3.1 International Situation - The US economic data shows a complex situation. The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months in October, while the ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high. The labor market shows signs of slowdown, and inflation has picked up. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December has increased to 75%. [14] 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - The domestic economy is running smoothly, with a continued supply - tight pattern in the aluminum market. The government is expected to introduce more growth - stabilizing policies. [16][18] 3.4基本面 (Fundamentals) 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Aluminum Bauxite**: In October, China's domestic aluminum bauxite production decreased, with a continuous decline for three months. Although the supply pressure in Henan has eased, the supply - tight pattern in the country continues. Overseas, the supply of imported aluminum bauxite is expected to increase in November. [19][22] - **Alumina**: In October, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased, but the daily average production decreased slightly. The overall operating capacity is still at a high level, but the profit has been compressed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [27] - **Primary Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum)**: In October, China's primary aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year. The operating capacity remained high and stable, but the increase was limited due to energy consumption indicators and capacity replacement policies. Overseas capacity expansion has fallen short of expectations. [28][31] 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Aluminum Processing Enterprises**: High aluminum prices have put pressure on the start - up of aluminum processing enterprises. The overall start - up rate is 62.0%, with different trends in different product segments. [34] - **Real Estate Market**: The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, which has suppressed the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector. [36][37] - **New Energy Sector**: The new energy sector continues to be highly prosperous. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly, and the new energy power generation industry (photovoltaic and wind power) has also maintained high growth, driving the demand for aluminum. [39][41] - **Home Appliance Market**: The home appliance market is under pressure, with the output of most home appliances showing a downward trend in October. [42][43] 3.4.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventories**: The LME aluminum inventory has increased significantly, and the SHFE aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level. [46] - **Social Inventories**: As of November 24, the five - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 61.2 tons, which continued to be at a low level and supported the aluminum price. [49] 3.4.4 Other Factors - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is beneficial for aluminum to replace copper, and the aluminum price may have an upward trend. [51] - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry remained stable. In October, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased significantly, while the export increased. The price of recycled aluminum alloy in the spot market has fallen, and the social inventory has increased slightly. [54][55][58]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views Bullish Factors - Multiple domestic policies to stabilize growth have been introduced, boosting the long - term zinc consumption outlook and warming market sentiment [3] - Some smelters are undergoing regular maintenance, which is expected to slightly affect domestic refined zinc production [3] Bearish Factors - Environmental protection policies in northern regions restrict the operation of some galvanized enterprises, dragging down downstream actual demand [3] - The processing fees for imported zinc concentrates remain high, with sufficient raw material supply for the smelting end and decent profits [3] Trading Advice - Market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, with policy expectations competing against weak reality. It is advisable to closely monitor inventory changes and macro - sentiment [3] Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Data on galvanized sheet coil market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and steel mill weekly production are presented in a seasonal chart. The inventory and production data are shown from 2021 - 2025, and the market sentiment index is from 2023 - 2025 [4] - Seasonal charts of net exports of galvanized sheet (strip), die - cast zinc alloy, color - coated sheet (strip), and zinc oxide are provided, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][8][9][10] - Charts on real - estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, unsold area, and land and housing transaction data are presented, including 100 - major - city land transaction area and 30 - major - city housing transaction volume, with data from different time periods [11][13][15] - Chart on infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion is presented, showing cumulative year - on - year data for different sectors from 2020 - 2025 [16][17] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Seasonal charts of zinc concentrate monthly import volume, zinc concentrate TC, SMM zinc ingot monthly production, China's zinc ingot monthly production plus import volume, zinc concentrate raw - material inventory days, and various zinc inventories (LME, SHFE, etc.) are provided, with data from 2021 - 2025 [19][21][23][24][27] - Chart on refined zinc enterprise production profit and processing fees is presented, showing data from 2022 - 2024 [23] Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts on domestic and international zinc price trends, Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume and open interest, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc premium/discount, zinc ingot basis in three locations, and Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality are provided, with data covering different time periods from 2022 - 2025 [30][31][32][34][36]

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced changes in liquidity, with short-term interest rates declining and long-term yields showing reduced volatility, indicating a steepening yield curve [2][3] - Short-term rates reflect market expectations for policy easing, driven by structural issues in China's economic growth, such as weak consumption and declining real estate sales, suggesting a continued need for a loose monetary environment [2][3] - The supply-demand dynamics for long-term bonds have shifted, with an increase in the issuance of ultra-long bonds, particularly local government bonds, leading to a significant rise in the proportion of long-term bonds in the market [3] Group 2 - Short-term liquidity easing is crucial for the stock market, as it indicates ongoing support for economic growth and can lower financing costs for leveraged funds, potentially increasing risk appetite among investors [4] - The decline in short-term interest rates may lead to a continued shift of household asset allocation towards the stock market, as high-yield assets become scarcer [4]

Core Viewpoint - The steel price is expected to rise, and it is an opportune time for sector allocation, supported by the initiation of central safety production assessments which will stabilize market confidence and positively influence steel price trends [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The impact of overseas tariffs is minimal for general steel companies due to their low export ratios, and the "stabilizing growth" policies from the government are likely to marginally improve steel demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors [1] - Current profits per ton of general steel are substantial, and in the context of the industry's "anti-involution" trend, there is significant room for performance improvement among general steel companies [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which selects relevant listed companies in the steel industry from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the steel sector [1] - The index includes major sub-sectors such as general steel and special steel, exhibiting significant cyclical characteristics closely related to macroeconomic cycles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment faces increasing pressure and challenges due to external demand slowdown and weakened domestic demand, but positive factors are accumulating, indicating that the annual economic growth target remains achievable [1] Economic Performance - From January to October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with cumulative growth maintained for three consecutive months since August [1][2] - The revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.8% year-on-year, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [2] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors are the main driving forces, with profits in the equipment manufacturing sector rising by 7.8% and high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 8.0% [2] Industrial Profit Trends - In specific sectors, profits in graphite and carbon products manufacturing, biochemical pesticides, and cultural information chemicals manufacturing saw significant increases of 77.7%, 73.4%, and 19.1% respectively [3] - The report from Guotai Junan Securities suggests that sustained profit improvement requires ongoing supply-side structural optimization and effective demand expansion policies [3] Physical Indicators - Social electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh in October, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking the highest monthly growth rate this year [4] - Railway freight volume reached a historical high of 3.378 billion tons from January to October, with a year-on-year growth of 3% [5] - The express delivery business volume grew by 16.1% year-on-year, reaching 162.68 billion pieces in the first ten months [5] - Excavator sales increased by 17% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 19.6% and exports up by 14.4% [5][6] Policy Support - The "Two Heavy" construction initiative is a key focus for expanding effective investment and fostering new productive forces, with significant funding allocated for major projects [7][8] - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs, covering various sectors including logistics, public utilities, and clean energy [9] - New policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy and urban renewal [10]

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment faces increased pressure and challenges due to slowing external demand and weakening domestic momentum, but positive factors are accumulating, supporting the completion of annual economic growth targets [2] - From January to October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a continuous growth rate maintained for three consecutive months since August [3][4] Industrial Performance - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors are the main driving forces behind profit growth, with profits in the equipment manufacturing sector rising by 7.8% and high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 8.0% year-on-year [4] - Traditional industries are also showing improvement, with significant profit growth in specific sectors such as chemical and building materials, where profits increased by 77.7% and 73.4% respectively [4] Physical Indicators - Key physical indicators are showing positive trends, with total electricity consumption in October reaching 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking the highest monthly growth rate this year [5] - Railway freight volume reached a historical high, with 3.378 billion tons of goods transported from January to October, a 3% increase year-on-year [5] - The express delivery sector also saw robust growth, with a total volume of 162.68 billion packages delivered in the first ten months, up 16.1% year-on-year [5] Construction and Investment Policies - The government is intensifying growth stabilization policies, including the accelerated issuance of 200 billion yuan in special bonds to support investment construction [7][11] - The "Two Major" construction initiative is a key focus for expanding effective investment and fostering new productive forces, with significant funding allocated for major strategic projects [8][9] Infrastructure and Financial Tools - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include more sectors, enhancing investment in urban renewal and other areas [10] - New policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy and urban infrastructure [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and pressures faced by the macro economy in the fourth quarter due to external demand slowdown and weakened domestic demand, while also highlighting positive indicators that suggest the potential to meet annual economic growth targets [3]. Economic Performance - From January to October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a continuous growth trend observed since August [4][5]. - In October, profits of industrial enterprises fell by 5.5% year-on-year, influenced by high base effects and rising financial costs [4]. - The revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.8% year-on-year, supporting profit recovery [4]. Sector Analysis - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors were the main drivers of profit growth, with profits in the equipment manufacturing sector rising by 7.8% and high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 8.0% year-on-year [4][5]. - Traditional industries are also showing signs of improvement, with profits in certain sectors significantly exceeding the industry average [4]. Physical Indicators - Social electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh in October, marking a 10.4% year-on-year increase, the highest monthly growth rate this year [7]. - Railway freight volume reached a historical high, with 3.378 billion tons of goods transported from January to October, a 3% increase year-on-year [7]. - The express delivery business volume grew by 16.1% year-on-year, reaching 162.68 billion pieces in the first ten months [8]. - Excavator sales increased by 17% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the construction machinery sector [8]. Policy Measures - The government is intensifying growth stabilization policies, including the implementation of "two重" construction to support effective investment and cultivate new productive forces [9][10]. - New policy financial tools and an increase in special bond issuance are expected to bolster infrastructure investment [14]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to support investment in various sectors [12][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, with both onshore and offshore RMB breaking the 7.08 mark, reaching new highs since October 2022 [1][2] - On November 26, the onshore RMB reached a peak of 7.0767, while the offshore RMB peaked at 7.0753, reflecting a daily increase of 0.17% and 0.34% respectively on November 25 [1] - Analysts attribute the RMB's strength to the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) stable exchange rate policies, increased demand for currency settlement as year-end approaches, and a favorable external environment for Chinese exports [1][2] Group 2 - The PBOC's recent report outlines a strategy to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and maintain the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [2] - Short-term forecasts suggest that the RMB will remain strong due to PBOC policies, while long-term expectations indicate a gradual appreciation of the RMB, supported by a friendly external environment and domestic economic fundamentals [2] - Analysts emphasize that the RMB is likely to maintain a stable trajectory against the USD, with limited potential for rapid appreciation before year-end [2]

记者丨叶麦穗 编辑丨肖嘉 11月25日， 离岸人民币、在岸人民币兑美元汇率均升破7.09关口，触及逾一年盘中新高。 同 日，中国人民银行授权中 国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0826元，相较前一交易日中间价调升 21个基点。今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅约1000个基点。 悦 读 · 智能 权威 · 凸》 3 (P 扫 码 点 击 下 载 综合各类影响因素， 王青预计短期内人民币还会处于偏强运行状态，接下来要重点关注美元走势、人民币中间价调控 力度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度和节奏。 其中，伴随美联储未来还可能继续降息，以及特朗普政府关税政策对美国经济冲击逐步显现，美元指数上行空间有 限；不过，年初以来美元跌幅巨大，对包括美联储降息等在内的利空因素有所消化，后期会有较强的抗跌韧性。 国内方面，四季度外部波动对我国出口的影响逐步显现，而10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，当月进一步 安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资，逆周期调节政策适时加力将确保四季度经 济运行基本稳定。这方面有充足的政策空间，也意味着经济基本面将为人民币汇率 ...