Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - December Manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first entry into the expansion zone since April 2025[2] - Production index rose to 51.7%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points, while new orders index reached 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points, indicating improved production and demand[12] - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points, supporting the manufacturing recovery, while small enterprises' PMI fell to 48.6%, reflecting ongoing challenges[18] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - December Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.2%, returning to the expansion zone, showing improvement from November[3] - Construction PMI recorded at 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, driven by favorable weather and accelerated project progress[25] - Service sector Business Activity Index increased to 49.7%, still in contraction, with significant variation across industries, indicating a slow recovery[25] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Overall PMI data for December reflects a phase of economic recovery, confirming the effectiveness of growth stabilization policies[5] - Anticipated economic expansion supported by upcoming consumption peaks and infrastructure projects, alongside a special bond issuance plan of 62.5 billion yuan to stimulate consumption[5] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, slow global economic recovery, and insufficient domestic demand[6]

Economic Indicators - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, marking the first return to expansion since April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for December was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from November, with the construction index at 52.8%, rising 3.2 percentage points[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 1.0 percentage point to 50.7% in December[1] Policy Impact - The recovery in market demand is attributed to effective growth stabilization policies, including the introduction of two 500 billion yuan policies, which have positively impacted infrastructure and manufacturing investments[2] - The issuance of an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds is expected to provide 200 billion yuan in new funding for project construction, further stimulating domestic demand[2] Sector Performance - The manufacturing new orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%, driven by strong market demand and resilient export conditions, with the new export orders index increasing by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%[2] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, contributing significantly to the overall PMI rise[3] - The construction PMI returned to expansion at 52.8%, primarily due to the impact of new policy financial tools and favorable weather conditions in southern provinces[5] Challenges and Outlook - The service sector PMI remained in contraction at 49.7%, despite a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating ongoing weak consumer demand, particularly in retail and dining sectors[4][5] - The overall economic outlook suggests continued support from growth stabilization policies, but challenges remain due to high tariffs affecting global trade and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6]

招商证券指出，钢铁行业近期受产能调控与环保政策趋严影响，生产节奏放缓，供给总量趋紧。展望后 市，"稳增长"政策逐步推进，但短期供给仍大于需求，价格向上空间和弹性的关键取决于基建和制造业 的修复斜率。普钢方面，12月12日商务部发布公告对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，自2026年1月1 日起实行，这将进一步影响行业供需格局。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取归属于钢铁行业的上 市公司证券作为样本，以反映钢铁行业整体表现。指数成分股覆盖普钢、特钢等细分领域，具有典型的 周期性特征，其走势与宏观经济景气度高度关联。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 ...

Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 3.42% this week, outperforming the broader market [1][2] - The special steel segment rose by 4.80%, long products by 1.27%, and flat products by 1.94% [1][2] - Iron ore segment surged by 10.15%, steel consumables by 2.94%, and trade circulation by 4.33% [1][2] Supply Situation - As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 84.9%, up by 0.01 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.2%, down by 1.12 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The output of five major steel products was 6.92 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons week-on-week [2] - Daily average pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons, up by 0.03 million tons week-on-week, but down by 28,300 tons year-on-year [2][5] Demand Situation - Consumption of five major steel products was 8.336 million tons, down by 16,700 tons week-on-week [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 95,000 tons, down by 4.3% week-on-week [2] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products was 8.726 million tons, down by 339,100 tons week-on-week [3] - Factory inventory was 3.854 million tons, down by 28,800 tons week-on-week [3] Price and Profit - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,439.2 yuan/ton, down by 9.57 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,571.8 yuan/ton, up by 1.81 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 50 yuan/ton, up by 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The profit for electric furnace construction steel was -4 yuan/ton, up by 3.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) was 800 yuan/ton, up by 2.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4] - The price for main coking coal remained stable at 1,700 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 25.18 days, down by 0.2 days week-on-week [4] Investment Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation despite current challenges [6][7] - The demand for steel is anticipated to improve marginally due to government "stability growth" policies supporting real estate and infrastructure [6][7] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control are expected to see valuation recovery opportunities [7] - Recommended companies include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is undergoing structural changes due to the implementation of export license management and a series of measures aimed at reducing "involution" competition, with a shift in demand from construction to manufacturing, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [1][2] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The steel industry is currently facing significant supply-demand contradictions, leading to an overall decline in industry profits [1] - Despite challenges, the total demand for steel is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, supported by a bottoming out of the real estate sector, steady infrastructure investment, ongoing manufacturing development, and high levels of steel exports [1] - Supply-side policies are tightening overall steel supply, while industry concentration is expected to continue increasing, leading to a stable supply-demand situation [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The macro trend of high-quality economic development and new productive forces is expected to benefit high-end steel products, particularly those with high barriers to entry and high added value, such as high-end steel used in advanced equipment manufacturing [1] - The industry structure is anticipated to improve steadily, with some companies currently undervalued, presenting structural investment opportunities, especially for high-margin special steel enterprises and leading steel companies with strong cost control and economies of scale [1] - Under the ongoing supply-side "anti-involution" efforts, steel production capacity is increasingly concentrating among quality leading enterprises, while demand for special steel is expected to benefit from manufacturing upgrades and AI transformation [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic News - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to enhance residents' consumption willingness and capacity, and to actively expand effective investment space [1] - The commission plans to focus on releasing residents' consumption potential and implementing special actions to boost consumption [1] - There will be efforts to stabilize major consumption and implement policies for replacing old consumer goods [1] Group 2: Financial Risk Management - The Shenzhen Municipal Financial Office emphasizes the need to effectively prevent and resolve various financial risks, controlling new risks and managing existing ones [2] - The approach includes tailored strategies for each enterprise and accelerating the resolution of financial risks related to key real estate companies [2] - There will be a crackdown on illegal financial activities and enhanced inter-departmental collaboration for risk identification and rapid response [2] Group 3: Currency Exchange Rates - The offshore RMB against the US dollar reached a new high since October 2024, peaking at 7.04 [5] - The onshore RMB also hit a maximum of 7.04 against the US dollar, marking a new high since October 2024 [5] Group 4: Economic Projections - A prediction states that it is entirely possible for China's per capita GDP to reach $23,000 by 2035, requiring an average annual growth rate of 5% over the next 11 years [6] - The current economic conditions suggest that the growth rate needed may be higher than 5% due to a decline in total population [6] - The forecast does not consider exchange rate fluctuations or significant inflation issues in the coming years [6] Group 5: Market Policy Outlook - There is an expectation for more policies to be introduced to support the construction of a large domestic market [7]

前段时间，由于美联储的降息等因素，一度驱动着各路资金对年底的全球资本市场的流动性宽松寄予了 厚望。但从本周以来的走势来看，流动性宽松的预期基础似乎正在瓦解。比如说美国联储隔夜逆回购 （ONRRP）余额仍处于枯竭状态，上周五只有8亿美元左右，这是美元短线流动性的蓄水池，也是全球 流动性的总蓄水池。因此，这个指标不佳，往往意味着美元流动性收紧，也意味着全球流动性收紧。 因此，这可能既是美股在近期再度疲态的诱因之一，也是周二亚太股市继续调整的诱因之一。如此就使 得A股市场各路资金再度重新评估全球流动性，随之也在重构风险偏好，毕竟在前段时间的风险偏好主 要是建立在美联储降息后全球流动性宽松的基础之上。 来源：智通财经 周二A股市场出现了弱势态势。其中，周一相对强硬的资源主线、核聚变板块等强势股出现了补跌态 势，从而挫伤了市场补仓意愿，主要股指相继走低。不过，人民币汇率仍然坚挺，这与以A股、港股为 代表的人民币资产的疲态走势形成背离态势，这或将说明A股后续调整空间不宜过于夸大。 重构风险偏好 与此同时，A股自身的风险偏好似乎也在重构。在前段时间，因为逆周期调整、去库存等表述一度让市 场参与者对未来的稳增长措施有了新的期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for treasury bonds is "shock" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in November continued to weaken with a supply - demand imbalance, and the market focuses on the subsequent pro - growth policies. The pro - growth policies are expected to be mild and combined with structural adjustment policies. Service consumption and investment may be important pro - growth drivers. The bond market is desensitized to fundamentals, and there is still a risk of TL adjustment [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 November Economic Data Continued to Weaken - In November, the year - on - year industrial added value growth was 4.8% (previous value 4.9%, expected value 4.96%), the retail sales growth rate was 1.3% (previous value 2.9%, expected value 2.93%), and the cumulative fixed - asset investment growth rate from January to November was - 2.6% (previous value - 1.7%, expected value - 2.16%) [9] - The overall economic data in November was similar to the previous few months, with a weakening aggregate and a supply - strong and demand - weak structural problem. Factors such as the decline of previous policy effectiveness, the advancement of anti - involution policies, and the shift of fiscal funds affected the economy [12] 3.2 Demand - Side Analysis 3.2.1 Investment: Cumulative Investment Growth Rate Declined Further - The cumulative fixed - asset investment growth rate from January to November was - 2.6%, and the private investment growth rate was - 5.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value [15] - The cumulative growth rate of broad infrastructure was 0.13% from January to November, and the narrow infrastructure growth rate was - 1.1%. In November, the broad infrastructure growth rate was - 11.9%. However, factors favorable to infrastructure investment are accumulating, and it is expected that the infrastructure growth rate will stop falling and stabilize in Q1 next year [18][19] - The real estate data in November continued to weaken. The real estate development investment growth rate from January to November was - 15.9%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous value. Future real estate policies will focus on long - term transformation with short - term support [20] - The cumulative manufacturing investment growth rate from January to November was 2.7%, and the November growth rate was - 4.5%. It is expected that the manufacturing investment growth rate will have a low central value, optimized structure, and a low - to - high rhythm next year [26][27] 3.2.2 Consumption: Retail Sales Growth Rate Declined Accelerated - In November, the retail sales growth rate was 1.3%, and the month - on - month growth rate was - 0.42%. The decline was due to factors such as poor income expectations, the pre - emptive "Double Eleven", and the decline of the trade - in policy. Service consumption was better than commodity retail [34] - Policy support can drive the retail sales growth rate to recover in Q1 next year, but it will take a long time for the growth rate center to rise [34] 3.3 Production - Side Analysis - In November, the year - on - year industrial added value growth was 4.8%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.44%, slightly higher than the average of the past three years. The growth rate of service production decreased from 4.6% to 4.2% [35] - The increase in exports offset the weak domestic demand, maintaining the stability of industrial production. However, it is more likely that the production growth rate will gradually decline next year [39] 3.4 Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is desensitized to the weakening economic data. The long - term positive narrative and the difficulty of driving broad - money expectations are the reasons [40] - Institutional behavior led to the significant adjustment of ultra - long bonds. It is expected that TL may challenge the previous low. Suggestions for strategies include waiting for the right time to go long, holding short - hedging strategies, and observing the curve strategy [40][41]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Congo Tin [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Styrene, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral: Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silver, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Steam, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1][2] Core Views - Two major domestic meetings have concluded, releasing limited incremental information. In the short term, be wary of the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the implementation of meeting policies. Asset shortage and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside. Market sentiment has been fluctuating, with increased price volatility. Look for opportunities to buy at low levels [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stock Index: Be cautious of post - policy "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustments [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are a constraint [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: Limited industrial drivers, but fluctuating risk appetite leads to wide - range high - level oscillations [1] - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, with a weak fundamental outlook. Some short - sellers are leaving the market, causing a price rebound, but the upward momentum is limited [1] - Zinc: Short - term macro benefits have been digested. Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward, with an expected short - term bullish trend [1] - Nickel: Macro sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and Indonesia's 2026 nickel - mine RKAB approval. Global nickel inventories are high, and short - term prices may decline in a volatile manner [1] - Stainless Steel: Macro sentiment is volatile. Pay attention to policies and production. Raw - material nickel prices are falling, and futures prices are expected to decline in a volatile manner [1] - Tin: Due to the tense situation in Congo, it is considered bullish in the long term. Look for opportunities to buy on dips [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and have long - term upward potential [1] - Silver: Prices are highly volatile and may oscillate widely in the short term [1] - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and long - term buying on dips is recommended [1] - Palladium: May follow platinum's strength in the short term. The "long - platinum, short - palladium" arbitrage strategy can be continued [1] - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing, while Southwest production is decreasing. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon are decreasing [1] - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, and energy - storage demand is strong. However, supply is increasing, and there is significant pressure at the 100,000 - yuan level [1] Black Metals - Rebar: Futures - spot arbitrage positions can take rolling profits. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - Iron Ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, leaving room for upward movement in far - month contracts [1] - Manganese Silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, and prices are under pressure [1] - Ferrosilicon: Similar to manganese silicon, prices are under pressure [1] - Glass: Supply - demand is supportive, valuation is low, and prices are fluctuating upward [1] - Soda Ash: Follows the trend of glass. Supply - demand is okay, valuation is low, and downward space is limited [1] - Coking Coal: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to downstream winter - storage replenishment [1] - Coke: Similar to coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data is negative, and short - selling is recommended [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is likely over, and selling the 05 contract is advised [1] - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Pay attention to future policies, planting intentions, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. If prices fall further, cost support will be strong, but there is a lack of continuous short - term drivers [1] - Corn: The short - term supply - demand mismatch in the spot market has eased but not fully resolved. Pay attention to sales progress and inventory changes [1] - Soybean Meal: Domestic near - month contracts are strong, and far - month contracts are weak. Pay attention to oil - mill operations and South American weather [1] - Pulp: Futures prices are affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see on one - sided trading and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - Logs: Affected by falling external prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to decline in a volatile manner [1] - Pork: Spot prices are stabilizing, demand is supportive, but the production capacity has not been fully released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1] - Fuel Oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Raw - material cost support is strong, the futures - spot price difference is low, and intermediate inventory may start to accumulate [1] - BR Rubber: Trading volume has improved, and export support exists. High production and high inventory are still pressures, but long - term tire demand is increasing [1] - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and consumption is stable. The cost is high, and the profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, and prices are falling. Coal prices are dropping, weakening the cost support [1] - Short Fiber: Prices closely follow the cost [1] - Styrene: Cost support is weak, production profitability is negative, and inventory has not significantly decreased [1] - Steam: Export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upside. There is support from the cost side [1] - Propylene: The monomer price is high, providing cost support. The oil - based cost is decreasing due to falling crude - oil prices [1] - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1] - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants are delaying production, and there is pressure to accumulate inventory in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high [1] - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the market is returning to a loose supply - demand situation. The PG price is oscillating within a range [1]

| 方富强 | | 国贸期货研究员 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | 2025/12/16 | | 变化 (%) 15:00期货价格 | 价格指标 | 现货价格 | | | 变化 (%) | 图表 | | # 0. 65 11871. 5 | | 11816 | | | 0.92 | LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | 锌 -2. 35 3172. 5 | LME | 3242 | | | -0. 19 | | | -0. 21 2890 铝 镍 -0. 21 | (美元/吨) | 1932 14420 | | 14645 | 0. 03 0. 24 | | | 期货与现货 锡 42400 3. 34 价格 | | 41905 | | | 2. 42 | 100000 | | 铜 -1.7 92400 锌 -1. 35 23430 | | 92370 23410 | ...