Core Insights - The October CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, marking a return to positive growth since July, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, improving for six consecutive months [2] - The PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first month-on-month increase this year [2] CPI Analysis - The recovery in CPI is attributed to base effects, holiday consumption, and rising gold prices, with food and energy prices showing a narrowing year-on-year decline due to last year's low base [2] - Pork prices remain low at -16% year-on-year, while service prices increased from 0.6% to 0.8% year-on-year, driven by strong travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [2] - Travel service prices and gold price increases contributed 0.13% and 0.1% to the core CPI's growth, respectively [2] PPI Analysis - The improvement in PPI is primarily driven by non-ferrous metals, with copper prices rising by 7% month-on-month, leading to significant increases in related prices [3] - The coal price has improved due to anti-involution policies, but steel prices have not followed suit due to low capacity utilization in downstream industries [3] - The main reason for the weak PPI this year is not an imbalance in supply and demand but rather low capacity utilization in downstream sectors [3] Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue a moderate recovery, influenced by last year's low CPI base, but overall improvement may be limited due to potential adjustments in service prices post-holidays and the tapering of old-for-new policies [3] - The PPI outlook remains uncertain due to high bases and global commodity price fluctuations, with ongoing improvements in capacity utilization expected to be gradual [3] - Significant improvements in inflation data will require a restoration of endogenous economic growth momentum and the gradual implementation of anti-involution and growth-stabilizing policies [3]

Economic Overview - In October, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a significant decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth for the first ten months of 2025 was 6.1%, compared to 5.8% for the entire year of 2024[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.0% in the previous month[1] Industrial Production - The mining and manufacturing sectors saw a notable decline in growth rates, with year-on-year increases of 4.5% and 4.9%, down 1.9 and 2.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month[4] - The export delivery value for large-scale industrial enterprises fell by 2.1% year-on-year, marking a significant drop of 5.9 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest growth rate of the year[5] Consumer Trends - The retail sales growth for household appliances, furniture, and automobiles saw declines of 14.6%, 9.6%, and 6.6% respectively, with significant drops of 17.9, 6.6, and 8.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry surged by 37.6% year-on-year, an increase of 27.9 percentage points from the previous value, driven by rising international gold prices[9] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment for January to October showed a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous value, marking two consecutive months of negative growth[10] - Real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the housing market[13] Future Outlook - The government is expected to enhance growth-stabilizing policies before the end of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand and releasing consumption potential[2] - The anticipated implementation of new fiscal and monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts, aims to counteract the impacts of slowing external demand[2]

Loan and Financing Trends - In October 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion, reflecting weak consumer demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[1][4] - The total social financing scale in October was 815 billion, down 597 billion year-on-year, primarily due to reduced government bond financing and loans directed at the real economy[1][7] - The growth rate of broad money supply (M2) was 8.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while narrow money supply (M1) grew at 6.2%, down 1.0 percentage points[1][8][9] Economic Influences - Weak domestic demand and declining external demand have suppressed credit demand from both enterprises and residents, contributing to the overall decrease in new loans[2][4] - The October PMI for manufacturing showed unexpected declines, further inhibiting credit demand from real enterprises[5][6] - The implementation of new policy financial tools has yet to significantly impact the demand for medium to long-term loans from enterprises[5][6] Future Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, potentially implementing new interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by year-end to stimulate internal demand[3][12] - Structural monetary policy tools will be utilized to direct financial resources towards key sectors such as technology innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and small and micro enterprises[13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [5]. Core Views - The report indicates an optimistic outlook for the fundamentals of the metal industry, particularly in lithium and rare earths, with expectations of price stabilization in the short term due to various supply and demand factors [2][3][4]. Steel Industry Summary - The steel industry is entering a consumption off-season, with increasing pressure on steel prices due to declining profits at steel mills and planned maintenance leading to expected supply reductions. Short-term steel prices are anticipated to fluctuate [17][24]. - As of November 7, 2025, the total steel inventory was 14.92 million tons, a decrease of 0.60% from the previous period but an increase of 22.87% year-on-year [24]. - The average price of steel on November 7, 2025, was 3,419.80 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.09% from the previous period and an 8.08% decline year-on-year [35]. Copper Industry Summary - The copper market is experiencing tight supply due to accidents at major overseas mines, which is providing support for copper prices. The report highlights the importance of upcoming U.S. economic data on copper price trends [4][40]. - As of November 7, 2025, the LME copper spot price was $10,700/ton, a decrease of 1.66% from the previous period [42]. Aluminum Industry Summary - The aluminum sector is facing challenges with low alumina prices impacting profits, while domestic demand is shifting from strong to weak. The report suggests that aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term [5][44]. - On November 7, 2025, the LME aluminum spot price was $2,800/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.53% from the previous period [45]. Gold Industry Summary - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical factors and U.S. economic conditions, with recent data showing support for gold prices despite pressure from hawkish Federal Reserve statements. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S. economic indicators and geopolitical developments [50][52]. Lithium and Rare Earths Summary - The lithium market is expected to see price stabilization in the short term, with the resumption of production at CATL's projects potentially exerting downward pressure on prices. However, strong fundamentals are expected to provide support [3][57]. - The rare earth market is anticipated to improve with increasing demand for neodymium-iron-boron, which is expected to support rare earth prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend. Currently, domestic and international macro - factors are mixed. Concerns about the continuous shutdown of the US federal government, the decline in China's export growth, and geopolitical factors will continue to affect the commodity market, especially the crude oil market [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Review**: This week, domestic commodities fluctuated. Industrial products fluctuated, and agricultural products declined from high levels. The US government shutdown in the first half - week led to risk - aversion sentiment, dragging down global asset prices, while the fall of the US dollar index in the second half - week relieved market pressure and most commodities rebounded [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: The continuous shutdown of the US federal government may impact people's livelihood and society. On October 31, the SRF injected huge liquidity into the market. In October, US private enterprises added 42,000 jobs, the ISM services PMI reached 52.4, but the non - farm employment decreased by 9,100. The eurozone's October composite PMI rose to 52.5, and the service industry PMI reached 53, indicating a stable economy, which may support the European Central Bank to suspend interest rate cuts [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: In October, China's exports were $305.4 billion with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.1%, and imports were $215.3 billion with a growth rate of 1%. The decline in export growth was affected by holidays, high - base effects, and a temporary callback in external demand. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders on October 30 eased trade frictions, and port shipments increased significantly from October 26 to November 2. The central bank resumed open - market treasury bond trading in October, with a net investment of 20 billion yuan, a net investment of 200 billion yuan in medium - term lending facilities, and a net investment of 400 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases. A 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation will be carried out on November 5, which will support the macro - economy [3]. - **Commodity Outlook**: The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend due to mixed domestic and international macro - factors, including the US government shutdown, China's export situation, and geopolitical factors [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Economic Data**: The ADP data showed that US private enterprises added 42,000 jobs in October, the largest increase since July 2025. The 10 - month ISM services PMI was 52.4, a new eight - month high. However, the non - farm employment decreased by 9,100, leading to selling in US stocks and cryptocurrencies. The SOFR rate soared 18 basis points to 4.22% [3][10]. - **Eurozone Economic Data**: The eurozone's October composite PMI reached 52.5, and the service industry PMI was 53, a 17 - month high. The economy showed stable expansion, with the service industry performing better than manufacturing, and significant economic differentiation among countries. This may support the European Central Bank to suspend interest rate cuts [3]. - **OPEC+ Situation**: On November 2, OPEC+ announced production plans for 2026, with WTI showing certain changes in production and price expectations [21]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Foreign Trade Data**: In October, China's exports were $305.4 billion with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.1%, and imports were $215.3 billion with a growth rate of 1%. The decline in export growth was affected by holidays, high - base effects, and a temporary callback in external demand. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders eased trade frictions, and port shipments increased [26]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank resumed open - market treasury bond trading in October, with a net investment of 20 billion yuan, a net investment of 200 billion yuan in medium - term lending facilities, and a net investment of 400 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases. A 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation will be carried out on November 5, which will support the macro - economy [29]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of November 7, the operating rate of PTA in the polyester industry chain was 76%, and the POY operating rate was 90%. The national blast furnace operating rate (247 enterprises) and the operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain showed certain trends [32]. - **Automobile Data**: In October, the sales volume and year - on - year growth rate of automobile manufacturers showed certain changes, with different growth rates in different periods [41]. - **Agricultural Product Data**: As of November 7, the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables and the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices showed certain trends, with price increases of 2.16% and 0.78% respectively [42].

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector has shown a positive performance with a 4.57% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, driven by various sub-sectors including special steel and iron ore [1][2]. Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 4.57%, with special steel up 3.89%, long products up 1.39%, and flat products up 4.20%. The iron ore sector rose by 11.38%, while steel consumables and trade circulation sectors increased by 4.99% and 4.38%, respectively [1][2]. Supply Situation - As of November 7, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate for sample steel companies was 87.8%, down 0.80 percentage points week-on-week. Electric furnace capacity utilization was at 50.9%, down 2.12 percentage points week-on-week. The production of five major steel products was 7.491 million tons, a decrease of 18.53 thousand tons or 2.41% week-on-week [2][3]. Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.669 million tons, down 49.47 thousand tons or 5.40% week-on-week. The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 96 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.79 thousand tons or 7.60% week-on-week [2][3]. Inventory Situation - As of November 7, the social inventory of five major steel products was 10.75 million tons, down 2.10 thousand tons or 0.19% week-on-week, but up 31.11% year-on-year. Factory inventory was 4.286 million tons, down 8.09 thousand tons or 1.85% week-on-week, and up 7.45% year-on-year [3][6]. Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,419.8 yuan/ton, down 37.72 yuan/ton or 1.09% week-on-week, and down 8.28% year-on-year. The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,592.5 yuan/ton, down 7.02 yuan/ton or 0.11% week-on-week, and down 3.62% year-on-year. The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was -39 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.0 yuan/ton or 31.58% week-on-week [3][4]. Raw Material Situation - As of November 7, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) was 776 yuan/ton, down 30.0 yuan/ton or 3.72% week-on-week. The price for main coking coal was 1,800 yuan/ton, up 60.0 yuan/ton week-on-week. The price for first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,880 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Despite challenges in the steel industry, including supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stabilization growth" policies is expected to support steel demand. The industry is anticipated to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with opportunities for structural investments in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a weekly increase of 4.57%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and iron ore seeing significant gains [2][10] - Despite facing supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3][34] - The report highlights that the steel industry is likely to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with a focus on high-end steel products benefiting from macro trends [3] Supply Situation - As of November 7, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sampled steel companies is 87.8%, down 0.80 percentage points week-on-week [24] - Electric furnace capacity utilization is at 50.9%, a decrease of 2.12 percentage points week-on-week [24] - The total production of five major steel products is 749.1 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 18.53 million tons [24] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 866.9 million tons as of November 7, down 49.47 million tons week-on-week [34] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 0.79 million tons week-on-week [34] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.75 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.10 million tons [42] - Factory inventory stands at 4.286 million tons, down 8.09 million tons week-on-week [42] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,419.8 yuan/ton, down 37.72 yuan/ton week-on-week [48] - The comprehensive index for special steel is 6,592.5 yuan/ton, down 7.02 yuan/ton week-on-week [48] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -39 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [51] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 776 yuan/ton, down 30.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [66] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,800 yuan/ton, up 60.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [66] - The average profit for independent coking enterprises is -22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies with strong growth potential and those benefiting from the new energy cycle [3]

Core Viewpoint - The investment advisory community shows a continued optimistic sentiment towards the macroeconomic outlook and A-share market for the fourth quarter of 2025, with over 80% of advisors bullish on the A-share market and a significant upward adjustment in the expected range for the Shanghai Composite Index [4][10][23] Economic Outlook - Approximately 79% of advisors hold a neutral or optimistic view on the macroeconomic situation, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous quarter [6] - 38% of advisors believe the economy is in a "bottoming out" phase, while 24% think it is operating normally [6] - Nearly 70% of advisors expect economic growth to improve compared to the third quarter [6] - The ongoing implementation of stable growth policies is seen as a primary driver for a stronger stock market [7] Market Sentiment - Over 81% of advisors are bullish on the A-share market for the fourth quarter, marking a new high for the year [10] - The expected range for the Shanghai Composite Index has been raised to between 3900 and 4100 points, up from the previous range of 3300 to 3500 points [10][23] - Advisors predict that the index will fluctuate between 3800 and 3900 points at the lower end [10] Investment Preferences - Advisors recommend that nearly 60% of investors focus on equities as the most valuable asset class for the fourth quarter [14][15] - 34% of advisors suggest investing in equity funds, while 32% recommend direct stock investments [15] - Technology stocks remain the most favored sector, with 46% of advisors optimistic about AI-related technology stocks [11] Client Behavior - 82% of advisors report that high-net-worth clients achieved profits in the third quarter, with a notable increase in their willingness to increase positions [19] - The majority of clients are expected to allocate additional funds to technology stocks, with 41% of advisors indicating this trend [19][21] - Advisors observe a "cash migration" trend among clients, with funds primarily sourced from cash deposits and redemptions of bank wealth management products [18][21] ETF and Fund Preferences - 47% of advisors noted that high-net-worth clients subscribed to ETF products in the third quarter, with a shift towards broad-based ETFs [20] - The popularity of the ChiNext ETF has increased, with 24% of advisors reporting client purchases [20] Conclusion - The overall sentiment among advisors indicates a positive outlook for the macroeconomic environment and A-share market, with recommendations for maintaining high equity positions and adopting flexible thematic investment strategies to capture opportunities in a structural market [23]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected 700 billion yuan of liquidity through a reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - The operation is a continuation of the 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase that will mature on November 7, indicating a stable liquidity environment [1] - Analysts expect the PBOC to conduct another 6-month reverse repurchase operation this month, with a possibility of increasing the amount [1] Group 2 - In October, the PBOC net injected 20 billion yuan of liquidity through open market operations, reflecting a cautious approach to managing market liquidity [2] - The PBOC's resumption of government bond trading is aimed at stabilizing market expectations without causing a rapid decline in interest rates [2] - Future expectations include potential increases in the scale of net bond purchases to counteract the pressure from maturing monetary tools [2]

Core Insights - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the commodity price index for October increased for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a recovery in the commodity market driven by government policies and improved international trade conditions [1][2] Price Index Overview - The October commodity price index reached 113.2 points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.2% [1] - Among 50 monitored commodities, 16 saw price increases, with electrolytic copper, corrugated paper, and coking coal leading the gains at 6.9%, 6%, and 6% respectively [1] Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metals price index rose by 3.5% due to increased global demand for renewable energy, traditional production peaks, and incidents in Indonesian copper mines and Icelandic aluminum smelters [2] - The mineral price index rebounded by 0.7% thanks to a recovery in the construction industry [2] - The energy and chemical price indices fell by 1.3% and 3.1% respectively, influenced by declining international oil prices [2] Market Outlook - Experts noted rapid growth in high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors, alongside positive signals from US-China negotiations and the Federal Reserve's second interest rate cut of the year [2] - Despite the overall positive trend, uncertainties in the global economy persist, and some commodity prices remain low, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances [2]