Group 1: Bond Market Insights - In the first half of 2025, institutional behavior showed three major changes: asset management extended duration, banks faced dual pressure on liabilities and performance, and insurance shifted some demand towards equities [3][4]. - The bond market outlook for the second half of 2025 indicates limited compression space for short-term spreads, while long-term demand from banks remains, potentially benefiting the downward trend of interest rates [4][5]. - The continuous reduction in bank convertible bonds is significantly altering market structure and triggering alternative allocation demands, with various funds seeking to fill the gap left by diminishing convertible bond supply [5][6]. Group 2: Motorcycle Industry Analysis - From January to May 2025, the motorcycle industry saw total sales of 6.822 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with significant growth in exports [8][9]. - Specific companies like Chunfeng Power and Qianjiang Motorcycle reported varied sales performance, with Chunfeng Power's fuel motorcycle sales increasing by 23% year-on-year, while Qianjiang Motorcycle experienced a 6% decline in total sales [9][10]. - The overall outlook for motorcycle exports remains positive, maintaining a "recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [15]. Group 3: Aluminum Industry Overview - The aluminum market is currently experiencing a tight supply situation, with domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory dropping to 460,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons week-on-week [17][18]. - Despite a seasonal slowdown in demand, the low inventory levels are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices, while the overall aluminum industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to limited long-term supply growth [22]. - The domestic aluminum oxide market is showing signs of recovery, with production capacity increasing and a slight rise in operating rates, although the market remains relatively loose [21][22]. Group 4: Alternative Investment Strategies - A民间预测指标 has emerged as a significant indicator for asset price movements, particularly in relation to the U.S. recession expectations, influencing various markets including stocks, bonds, and commodities [25]. - The indicator has shown strong correlations with market trends, suggesting that investors should integrate it with traditional economic data for more comprehensive asset allocation strategies [25]. Group 5: Gold Trading Strategy - The gold trading strategy is structured into three goals: determining long-term trends, analyzing strategic asset allocation value, and managing short-term volatility to control maximum drawdown [27]. - The strategy anticipates potential maximum drawdowns of 15%-20% during specific economic conditions, emphasizing the importance of market context in gold investment [27][28].

Core Insights - The report outlines a "three-step" strategy for trading gold, focusing on long-term trends, strategic asset allocation, and short-term volatility management [6][9][11] - It emphasizes that the weakening of US dollar credit and the economic cycle in the US being in a "recession to recovery" phase could lead to a maximum drawdown of 15%-20% for gold prices [6][11] - If both long-term and strategic views on gold are bullish, short-term negative factors could result in a maximum drawdown of 0%-5% within one month, while multiple negative factors could lead to a 5%-10% drawdown over 100 days [6][11] Group 1: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy consists of three goals: determining the long-term trend of gold, analyzing its strategic allocation value, and managing short-term disturbances to control maximum drawdown [6][11] - The report suggests that the long-term trend of gold prices is influenced by US dollar credit and inflation expectations, with a bullish outlook if dollar credit weakens and inflation remains above 2% [11][14] - The asset allocation perspective indicates that stagflation is favorable for gold, while recovery phases may exert downward pressure on gold prices [11][20] Group 2: Market Conditions and Impacts - The report identifies that periods of "overheating to stagflation" are generally bullish for gold, while "recession to recovery" phases tend to be bearish [20][21] - It highlights that unexpected crises can significantly impact gold prices, with fiscal policies leading to different price movements compared to monetary policies [23][24] - The analysis shows that short-term fiscal expansion may lead to a temporary decline in gold prices, reflecting reduced short-term debt repayment pressures [24][25] Group 3: Risk Management and Investment Timing - The report provides a framework for assessing the safety margin for investing in gold, suggesting that investors should consider maximum drawdown levels before entering positions [30][31] - It outlines specific scenarios for maximum drawdowns based on various economic conditions, indicating that drawdowns could exceed 20% under aggressive rate hikes or significant fiscal expansion [32][35] - The report advises investors to wait for drawdowns of around 15% to consider building or increasing positions in gold [35][43]

Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - Recent appreciation of the RMB is driven by foreign trade enterprises' settlement behavior rather than domestic investors or central bank guidance[2][3][4]. - The "swap premium" indicator, reflecting the central bank's attitude towards maintaining the exchange rate, is currently at a low level (+200 pips), indicating a smoothing of exchange rate fluctuations rather than an active push for appreciation[12][11]. - The "Shanghai gold premium" remains elevated at 500-1000 pips, suggesting a divergence in domestic investors' recognition of the current exchange rate, indicating they are not the main drivers of recent appreciation[19][18]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The widening of the US-China interest rate differential is unusual during the recent RMB appreciation, primarily due to rising US Treasury yields driven by credit weakness rather than economic strength[26][10]. - The RMB's recent appreciation benefits from two factors: the discount on US dollar assets requiring higher yields for compensation and high interest rates suppressing credit expansion amid recession fears[26][10]. - Future RMB exchange rate pricing frameworks must consider the variable of US dollar credit, as the traditional significance of the US-China interest rate differential may no longer apply effectively[26][10]. Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential disruptions from US tariffs and increasing domestic economic pressures, which could impact the RMB's stability[7][32].

贵金属日报 2025-06-16 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 美国通胀数据全面低于预期，市场对于联储下半年宽松货币政策的预期回升，这将驱动白银价 格后续表现强势：上周公布的美国 5 月 CPI 数据则全面低于预期，美国 5 月 CPI 同比值为 2.4%， 低于预期和前值的 2.5%。美国 5 月核心 CPI 同比值为 2.8%，低于预期的 2.9%。数据公布后， 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文表示 CPI 数据表现良好，美联储应当降息 100 个基点以缓和 美债利息支出。美国 5 月 PPI 同比值为 2.6%，符合预期，环比值为 0.1%，低于预期的 0.2%。 美国 5 月核心 PPI 同比值为 3%，低于预期的 3.1% 和前值的 3.2%，环比值为 0.1%，低于 预期的 0.3%。同时，就业数据方面，美国至 5 月 31 日当周初请失业救济人数为 24.8 万人， 高于预期的 24 万人。 数据公布后，美国总统特朗普再度表达强烈的降息需求，他认为联储 降息 200 个基点能为美国节省 6000 亿美元的财政支出，市场进一步加大对于联储下半年边 际宽松的预期。 联储降息预期的核心驱动在于美债利息支出，因此 ...

Market Overview - The stablecoin market has seen significant growth since 2020, with a current market capitalization of nearly $245 billion, representing about 7% of the total cryptocurrency market valued at approximately $3.4 trillion[15][18]. - Over 99% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with USDT and USDC dominating the market, accounting for 62.8% and 25.5% of the total stablecoin market capitalization, respectively[18][22]. Drivers of Growth - The growth of stablecoins is driven by their advantages in payment settlements, including efficiency, cost savings, and risk mitigation compared to traditional fiat currencies and other cryptocurrencies[15][22]. - Increased geopolitical risks and economic instability in emerging markets have created a demand for stablecoins as alternative currencies, with countries like Turkey seeing stablecoin purchases amounting to nearly 4% of their GDP[30][32]. Regulatory Developments - The passage of the "GENIUS Act" in the US marks a significant step towards establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is expected to enhance market development and attract more foreign investment[6][22][35]. - The act requires stablecoin issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve of compliant assets for every stablecoin issued, which is crucial for maintaining trust and stability in the market[38][41]. Impact on Global Currency and Assets - Stablecoins are expected to strengthen the US dollar's dominance in the global monetary system, potentially challenging the effectiveness of monetary policy in countries with unstable currencies[41][43]. - While the expansion of the stablecoin market may increase demand for US Treasury bonds, its overall impact on short-term bonds is limited, and it does not alleviate the pressure on long-term bonds due to persistent fiscal deficits[45][48]. Risks and Challenges - The ongoing uncertainty regarding cryptocurrency regulations in regions like mainland China poses risks to the stablecoin market's growth and adoption[50]. - The reliance of stablecoins on the US dollar's credit may not be sufficient to counteract the potential damage to dollar credibility amid global de-dollarization trends[32][49].

Group 1: Dollar Credit and Economic Dynamics - The recent high interest rate environment has led to a significant cooling of private credit expansion in the U.S., indicating a fragile balance for the dollar[1] - The correlation between global capital inflow and the dollar index is weak, primarily due to the mirrored relationship between U.S. capital inflow and trade deficits[6] - U.S. residents' net worth is positively correlated with the dollar index, with stock net worth showing a stronger correlation than housing net worth[21] Group 2: Risks and Policy Challenges - There is a notable tail risk of a "debt-recession" spiral if economic policies do not adjust significantly, particularly under the current high interest rates[26] - The U.S. government’s pursuit of trade barriers and a weaker dollar could harm resident welfare and exacerbate the tail risks associated with high bond yields[32] - The ongoing high interest rates and low growth environment raise questions about the sustainability of government debt, potentially leading to a "debt-recession" spiral[34]

报告导读： 随着近期美元信用折价导致的高利率环境持续，美国私人信贷扩张明显降温， 美元来到一个脆弱边界的紧平衡，美国当局需要在远景目标（长期贸易回流）与短期风险 （潜在债务危机）之间重新平衡，一旦政策端对于基本面恶化的响应速度不及时、态度不 彻底，那么美元资产的尾部风险不容忽视。反之亦然。 过去模式：高增长、高利率 — > 强美元 逻辑上，一国汇率强弱理应取决于 全球资本对该国货币的持有意愿（资本净流入） 。 但我们拆解美国的 国际收支平衡表发现，全球资本净流入与美元指数的相关性并不强，本质在于美国的资本净流入与贸易净 流出是镜像关系（孪生赤字）， 很难说资本净流入是由于对于美元资产吸引力更强，还是贸易竞争力更 差； 进一步看结构，我们发现美元指数与 股权直接投资 的净流入相关性最强，最近几年与 债权证券投资 的净 流入相关性更强。说明 美元强弱本质上取决于美国投资回报率预期（高息美元、增长预期） 。 美元信用的内在支撑：私人部门财富扩张 美国经济的本质驱动是 美国私人部门资产负债表的良性扩张，带来净资产的上涨。 而净资产的上涨进一 步抬升增长预期和利率水平，带来全球资本的持续涌入。 因此我们发现，美国居民净 ...

美债"定价锚"的地位下降，一些传统策略组合的有效性受到挑战。 全球资金正在进行新 一轮"再平衡"，主题是非美资产和另类资产。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛 美债的问题不在短期，而在长期，不在短端，而在长端，需求和供给都存在各自的担忧。需求动摇背后 是美元信用的变化，供给则开始计入无法顺利减赤所带来的潜在增发预期，这些都反应在美债期限溢价 的持续抬升。期限溢价的进一步正常化也将增加广义的美元融资成本，对于美元资产持有者形成天然的 损耗。 一、被 作为关税谈判工具的预期，加速了美债信用的侵蚀 美债的信用担忧上升是慢变量，本质是美国政府的偿债能力，财政增收是一个相对缓慢的过程。 共和党人相信通过减税和放松监管能够刺激经济增长，带来更多的税收，特朗普认为可以通过征收关税 的手段来弥补部分财政缺口，除此之外，还可能包括以关税大棒作威胁，强制出售商品、吸引外国对美 投资、鼓励购买美国国债，乃至通过军费或类似"保护费"的形式获取收入。 贝森特近期于彭博采访中表示，"总统当前首要任务是处理债务问题及其可持续性"，特朗普政府发动 关税战的深层动机是化债。尽管贝森特与米兰均否认将货币和美债作为贸易谈判的一部分，但市场依然 认为"海湖庄园协 ...

可以预见的是，大量驱逐非法移民也正冲击美国经济。 美国一场针对非法移民的"搜捕战"，正不断发酵、升级成激烈的街头对峙。 据新华社报道，当地时间8日中午，在洛杉矶市中心联邦执法机构门前的抗议者与部署在该地的国民警 卫队人员发生冲突。国民警卫队人员发射催泪弹和橡皮子弹试图驱散抗议人群，但抗议者越来越多，从 最初数十人增加到1000人以上。 这是一场关于移民问题的三方博弈。据新华社报道，大量加利福尼亚州（以下简称"加州"）民众不满联 邦政府抓捕非法移民，在街头抗议。美国总统特朗普公开称，洛杉矶"被非法移民和犯罪分子侵占"，将 采取一切必要行动"解放"洛杉矶。20余名民主党州长联合发表声明称，特朗普向洛杉矶派遣州国民警卫 队是"令人担忧的权力滥用"，"既无效又危险"。 收紧移民签证、驱逐非法移民，一直是特朗普政府的核心政策议程。然而在美国，合法和非法移民为全 美贡献了近五分之一的劳动力，每年拉动实际GDP增长约0.1个百分点（美国国会预算办公室，即CBO 测算），大肆驱逐移民或将付出惨重的经济代价。 美国经济第一大州成风暴中心 "洛杉矶之乱"的直接导火索，在于美国联邦执法机构在南加州展开严打搜捕非法移民的行动。据央视 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic data in the US is weakening, and the conflict between immigrants and authorities in Los Angeles has occurred. The current expectations of the Fed's monetary policy and the impact on the US dollar's credit will support the prices of gold and silver [2] - The non - farm payroll data in the US, although exceeding expectations, shows a significant weakening in overall new employment, which further supports the Fed's entry into a new round of interest - rate cut cycle in the second half of the year [2] - The Los Angeles immigration conflict event intensifies the internal social contradictions in the US, further impacting the US dollar's credit and boosting the gold price [3] - It is recommended to maintain a long - position thinking in the precious metals strategy. Under the background of the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy expectations, the performance of the silver price will be stronger. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold (Au) fell 1.09% to 774.18 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 0.62% to 8808.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.29% to 3336.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.14% to 36.19 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.51%, and the US dollar index was 99.08 [2] - In the table of price changes, for example, Au(T + D) closed at 779.56 yuan/gram, down 1.43 yuan (- 0.18%) from the previous trading day; Ag(T + D) closed at 8839.00 yuan/kilogram, up 383.00 yuan (4.53%) [4] Non - farm Payroll Data - The number of new non - farm payrolls in the US in May was 139,000, slightly exceeding the expected 130,000 but lower than the previous value of 177,000. The new non - farm payrolls in March and April were revised down by a total of 95,000 [2] Market Outlook - The weakening of overall new employment supports the Fed's entry into a new round of interest - rate cut cycle in the second half of the year [2] - The Los Angeles immigration conflict event impacts the US dollar's credit and boosts the gold price [3] Strategy Suggestion - Maintain a long - position thinking in the precious metals strategy. Silver will perform more strongly under the expected marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [3] Data Summary of Gold and Silver - For gold, the closing price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, etc. of COMEX gold, LBMA gold, SHFE gold, and Au(T + D) have different degrees of changes. For example, the trading volume of SHFE gold increased by 39.03% [5] - For silver, the closing price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, etc. of COMEX silver, LBMA silver, SHFE silver, and Ag(T + D) also have different changes. For example, the trading volume of SHFE silver increased by 305.85% [5] Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volume, open interest, and other factors, such as the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, and the relationship between COMEX gold price and actual interest rate [11]