Core Viewpoint - The report discusses the factors influencing oil prices, including geopolitical tensions, OPEC production decisions, and global economic conditions, predicting fluctuations in oil prices between $50 and $70 per barrel in Q4 2025, with a potential drop to $40 in 2026 [16][11][8]. Oil Price Influencing Factors - Geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production cuts have supported oil prices, while U.S. shale production and global demand fluctuations have created volatility [8][11]. - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with further increases planned for December [28][16]. - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory as of October 24, 2025, was 416 million barrels, down 9.54 million barrels year-on-year, and 5.91% lower than the five-year average [17][24]. Global Oil Supply and Demand - Global oil demand is projected to grow, with the EIA forecasting an increase of 300,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 240,000 barrels per day in 2026 [7][16]. - The IEA predicts a similar growth trajectory for global oil and liquid production, with increases of 270,000 and 130,000 barrels per day respectively [7][16]. - China's industrial crude oil processing volume increased by 6.8% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a recovery in demand [24]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was approximately 4.11% as of October 31, 2025, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [16][34]. - The manufacturing PMI in China for October 2025 was reported at 49.0%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [47]. Inventory and Production Insights - As of October 31, 2025, the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. was 546, a decrease of 39 rigs year-on-year, with production remaining stable at 13.64 million barrels per day [24][17]. - Global oil inventories are expected to increase, with a projected average growth of 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 [16]. Price Predictions and Market Outlook - The Brent crude oil price is expected to average $69 per barrel in 2025, with a decline to $52 per barrel in 2026 [16][7]. - The report highlights the potential for oil prices to test lower levels due to increasing supply and geopolitical uncertainties [16][11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the prolonged U.S. government shutdown on market liquidity, particularly the tightening of dollar liquidity, with expectations for the government to potentially reopen by November 17 [2][7]. - Gold and silver prices experienced slight declines, with COMEX gold down 0.14% and silver down 0.05%, while copper prices saw a more significant drop of -3.05% on COMEX [5][8]. - The copper market is under pressure due to reduced domestic consumption and increased inventory levels, with SHFE copper prices returning to around 85,000 yuan per ton [9][10]. Group 2 - The article notes that the gold price is expected to have limited downside potential in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as U.S. sovereign credit risk and geopolitical tensions [8][56]. - The copper concentrate TC weekly index increased slightly to -42.1 USD/dry ton, indicating ongoing negotiations and price fluctuations in the copper concentrate market [14]. - COMEX copper inventory has increased significantly, surpassing 360,000 tons, reflecting a continued accumulation since mid-March [10][11]. Group 3 - The article highlights that the financial liquidity risks are brewing due to the government shutdown, leading to a significant pullback in U.S. stocks and Bitcoin, which are sensitive to liquidity changes [7][8]. - The article mentions that the domestic market for electrolytic copper has seen an increase in inventory, with a total of 202,600 tons, indicating a slight rise in supply amid weak demand [21]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 2.9 tons to 1,042 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1.01 tons to 15,089 tons, reflecting shifts in investor sentiment [48].

芦哲、张佳炜（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 核心观点：本周市场对AI泡沫化的担忧，叠加联邦政府关门时间破历史纪录、最高法院对IEEPA关税判决带来的不确定性，市场避险情绪大幅走高，美股 大跌，美债利率走势震荡。截至最新美国联邦政府停摆时间已达40天，超越2018年底至2019年初停摆35天的历史纪录。持续的政府停摆除了导致非农、 GDP等关键数据缺失外，也开始对经济产生更大负面影响。一方面，由于公务员薪资等政府发放收入无法按期支付，居民消费面临一定的下行压力；另 一方面，政府停摆导致财政持续融资但无法支出，TGA余额持续增加，叠加缩表持续、RRP接近耗尽，货币市场流动性有所收紧，但其与近期风险资产大 幅回调更多为平行而非交叉的事件。向前看，随着预期的11月政府结束停摆，TGA泄洪，12月开始的经济数据与美元流动性料所改善。同时，由于12月 FOMC参考的11月经济数据（如能够发布）仍处于恶化阶段，叠加近期的美元流动性问题，美联储12月再度降息仍是大概率事件。 大类资产：AI泡沫、政府关门与关税裁决担忧推动市场避险情绪，带动美股大跌。本周市场对AI泡沫化的担忧，叠加联邦政府关 ...

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of US dollar liquidity, highlighting the coexistence of overall abundance and structural pressures in the market. Group 1: Federal Funds Market - The federal funds market remains a cornerstone of dollar liquidity, with bank reserves stable at approximately $3.2 trillion despite the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction since June 2022 [1][10][12] - The overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) tool has acted as a buffer, absorbing excess funds from non-bank institutions, but its capacity is diminishing, indicating a weakening protective mechanism [1][10][12] Group 2: Repo Market - The repo market is tightening, as evidenced by the widening spread between the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and the ON RRP rate, reaching a year-to-date high [2][19] - The ratio of primary dealers' reverse repos to reserve balances is increasing, signaling pressure on liquidity provision capabilities [2][19] - The usage of the standing repo facility (SRF) reached a record $11 billion at the end of June 2025, reflecting rising vulnerabilities in the repo market [2][22] Group 3: Offshore Dollar Market - The offshore dollar market has shifted from traditional bank credit to bonds, with foreign exchange derivatives becoming a key liquidity source, posing significant maturity mismatch risks [3][26] - The cross-currency swap basis serves as a critical indicator of offshore dollar scarcity, with recent trends suggesting a potential weakening of the dollar's traditional safe-haven status [3][26] - The Federal Reserve's tools, including central bank currency swaps and FIMA repo facilities, are crucial for maintaining global dollar liquidity stability [3][26] Group 4: Outlook - While overall dollar liquidity remains ample, structural pressures are accumulating, particularly due to the Fed's balance sheet reduction and rising Treasury General Account (TGA) balances [4][10] - The combination of the Fed's balance sheet contraction and Treasury issuance distorts the dollar's monetary pyramid structure, increasing financial system fragility [4][10] - Despite these pressures, the likelihood of a systemic dollar liquidity crisis remains low, thanks to the Fed's established multi-layered liquidity support tools [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tightness in US dollar liquidity and its impact on global markets, particularly highlighting the relative resilience of A-shares amidst overseas adjustments [2] Group 1: Market Conditions - US dollar liquidity remains tight, influencing global asset allocation strategies [2] - A-shares have shown relative strength compared to other markets during recent adjustments [2] Group 2: Investment Implications - The current market environment suggests potential investment opportunities in A-shares due to their resilience [2] - Investors may need to reassess their strategies in light of the tightening liquidity and its effects on various asset classes [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Recent liquidity crisis in the US led to a "bond market blood - sucking → risk asset blood - loss" chain. The market is in a capital re - pricing cycle, and the current decline is due to capital cost rather than fundamental deterioration [9]. - The wave of US Treasury issuance and fiscal deficit expansion will strengthen the mid - term pattern of liquidity tightening and asset re - pricing. Dollar liquidity will remain tight from November to December, and rising bond yields will push up global capital pricing and suppress high - valuation assets [9]. - The market is in a phased switch from liquidity flooding to pricing callback. Once fiscal spending resumes and the Fed stops liquidity withdrawal or shifts policy, asset prices will rise again. This is a valuation adjustment, not a structural breakdown [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review - As of November 7, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 9bp in two weeks, reaching 4.11%. The 2 - year yield rose 7bp and the 30 - year yield rose 11bp compared to two weeks ago [5]. 3.2 US Treasury Market Changes - In late October, the duration of US Treasury issuance slightly rebounded. The issuance amounts were $68.47 billion for 2 - year, $69.902 billion for 5 - year, and $43.95 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US fiscal deficit in September was $197.9 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.78 trillion [5]. 3.3 Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers dropped to 5.738 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained net short, rising to 395,400 contracts [5]. 3.4 US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy 3.4.1 Monetary Policy - On October 30, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced to stop balance - sheet reduction in December and reinvest all MBS principal repayments in short - term bonds. Powell emphasized that the decision on further rate cuts in December depends on data [6]. 3.4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of November 5, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance expanded by $37.63 billion in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool expanded by $18.06 billion, increasing short - term uncertainty in the liquidity buffer [6]. 3.4.3 Economic Situation - As of November 1, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.22 (2.13 two weeks ago), indicating short - term economic improvement after stability [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - Concerns over supply due to data centers "grabbing electricity" are expected to support aluminum prices in the short term [1]. - Liquidity concerns and tariff rulings are gradually exhausting bearish factors for precious metals, with a focus on the developments regarding U.S. government operations and tariff decisions [1]. - The copper market remains tight due to supply disruptions and internal competition among smelters, which is expected to support copper prices [1]. - The lithium market is experiencing fluctuations, with production expectations from the Jiangxia Mine impacting prices, while strong demand from downstream sectors is providing upward pressure [2]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to reduced purchasing sentiment from downstream buyers, leading to a weaker market outlook [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The liquidity concerns stemming from the U.S. government shutdown have led to a significant increase in cash balances, impacting market liquidity [1]. - The U.S. Supreme Court's hearings on tariff rulings have not yet provided a resolution, with expectations that tariffs will remain in place regardless of the court's decision [1]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The market is facing a tight supply situation due to disruptions in mining and smelting operations, with a notable increase in global copper inventories [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industry is stable with no significant production changes, but concerns over electricity supply are expected to keep prices strong [1]. - **Nickel**: The market is experiencing a downturn due to oversupply and reduced demand from traditional sectors [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices are fluctuating with production increases and strong demand from the battery sector, indicating a balanced market [2]. - **Cobalt**: The supply gap remains rigid, with prices expected to stabilize at high levels due to ongoing demand [2]. Key Companies to Watch - Companies such as Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities within the sector [1].

中国工商银行（亚洲）发布的报告构建了"3×3美元流动性分析矩阵"，通过联邦基金市场、回购市场、离岸美元市场三大核心市场，结合规模、价格、政策 三类指标，系统监测美元流动性变化，为市场分析提供全面框架。 联邦基金市场作为美元流动性基石，在充裕准备金框架下以规模指标为核心观测点。准备金总量直接反映银行体系基础流动性，其变动受美联储公开市场操 作（QE/QT）和负债结构（TGA账户收支、RRP工具使用）影响。当前美联储缩表持续推进，但RRP工具发挥"缓冲垫"作用，截至2025年9月，准备金总量 3.2万亿美元，占银行总资产12.9%，仍处于充裕区间，联邦基金利率稳定在政策区间内。贴现窗口作为辅助指标，因"污名化效应"日常使用克制，仅在危机 时大规模动用。 回购市场是流动性重要枢纽，重点关注SOFR价格变动、一级交易商做市能力及政策工具使用。价格维度，SOFR作为定价基准，其与ON RRP的利差扩大预 示流动性收紧，2025年9月利差中枢升至16BP，显示市场边际收紧。规模维度，一级交易商国债逆回购规模与准备金比值升至0.88，虽未达危机水平，但反 映压力积聚。政策层面，常备回购便利（SRF）作为"利率天花板"，20 ...

Group 1 - The recent fluctuations in the US stock market, particularly the Nasdaq, are attributed to high valuations encountering tightening liquidity, indicating a healthy correction phase [1] - The rise in the US dollar is primarily due to the government shutdown and the upcoming end of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, which is expected to release liquidity once normal spending resumes [1] - The current market turbulence provides an opportunity for investors who have been waiting to enter the market, suggesting that the fluctuations are not indicative of a major downturn [1] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are identified in the renewable energy sector, particularly in sub-industries such as wind, solar, nuclear, batteries, and power grids, which have shown no signs of reaching a peak since August 27 [2] - Recent capital inflows have been observed in agricultural chemicals and upstream battery sectors, indicating a focus on price increase trends [2] - The high tolerance for risk in a bull market allows investors to practice and refine their strategies, even if they face short-term losses [2]

Group 1 - The report identifies three main factors influencing convertible bond performance: equity-debt price ratio, dollar liquidity, and large-small cap style [2][11][20] - The current economic environment is characterized by a recovery phase, but limited incremental benefits due to insufficient momentum from households and enterprises [2][12][39] - The dollar is expected to remain in a loose monetary environment, which historically supports equity markets [2][16][19] Group 2 - Convertible bonds are currently in a trading phase that follows the performance of underlying stocks, having experienced three cycles since 2018 [3][27][28] - The median price of convertible bonds as of November 3, 2025, is 132.72 yuan, placing it at the 99.3% historical percentile, indicating a high valuation level [4][34][35] - The median conversion premium is 27%, which is at the 55.3% historical percentile, suggesting a relatively high valuation in the current market [4][34][35] Group 3 - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy for convertible bonds, focusing on equity-like convertible bonds priced above 120 yuan, with specific recommendations for various sectors [5][39][41] - Recommended convertible bonds include those from financial consumption, public utilities, AI and robotics, as well as semiconductor and manufacturing sectors [5][39][41] Group 4 - The investor behavior analysis shows that the total outstanding convertible bond scale has decreased from 844.7 billion yuan in January 2025 to 759.5 billion yuan in October 2025, with funds increasing their holdings [29][31] - The report highlights a shift in investor composition, with funds increasing their share from 34.3% to 39.8% during the same period, while insurance institutions have reduced their holdings significantly [29][32]