Core Insights - The report constructs a "3×3" matrix for analyzing USD liquidity, focusing on the federal funds market, repo market, and offshore USD market, while monitoring liquidity changes across scale, price, and policy dimensions [1][6][8] - Current structural pressures on USD liquidity are attributed to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and large-scale debt issuance, but the likelihood of a comprehensive liquidity crisis remains low under non-extreme conditions due to robust policy tools [1][3][6] Federal Funds Market - The federal funds market is the cornerstone of USD liquidity, with a focus on scale indicators. The Fed's balance sheet reduction since June 2022 has decreased total assets to 74.1% of the June 2022 level, but reverse repo tools (RRP) have provided a buffer, maintaining reserves at $3.2 trillion as of September 2025, which is 12.9% of total bank assets [1][13] - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) remains stable within the interest on reserves balance (IORB) of 4.15% and ON RRP of 4.0%, with discount window usage being restrained due to stigma effects [1][17] Repo Market - The repo market is a critical liquidity hub, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and primary dealer market-making capabilities as core observation points. Since September 2025, SOFR has fluctuated around the upper limit of the rate corridor, with a spread to ON RRP increasing to 16 basis points, indicating marginal tightening [2][20] - The ratio of primary dealer reverse repos to reserves has risen to 0.88, reflecting ongoing pressure, although it remains below crisis levels [2][20] Offshore USD Market - The offshore USD market has shown characteristics of "bondification" and "derivatization," with currency swap basis as a key observation indicator. Since 2025, the cross-currency basis for euro/USD and yen/USD has narrowed, indicating maintained offshore liquidity [2][27] - The use of central bank currency swaps and FIMA repo facilities during crises serves as significant signals of systemic liquidity pressure, with both tools available to address liquidity needs across various market levels [2][35][38] Future Outlook - Future USD liquidity faces multiple contraction pressures, including ongoing balance sheet reduction by the Fed and increased Treasury issuance, which may lead reserves to drop below $3 trillion by September 2025, approaching a critical threshold of $2.7 trillion [3][6] - The Fed has established a multi-layered liquidity management toolset, which includes the discount window, SRF, FIMA repo, and central bank currency swaps, to mitigate systemic risks under non-extreme conditions [3][6]

Group 1: US Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The Federal Reserve has recently implemented a preventive rate cut of 25 basis points, but has continued its balance sheet reduction, leading to tighter liquidity conditions in the US financial markets [1][4] - In September, the Fed's total assets decreased by $15 billion, bringing the total to $6.59 trillion, with a cumulative reduction of $2.38 trillion since April 2022 [3][4] - The current pace of balance sheet reduction is approximately $22 billion per month, raising concerns about potential liquidity crises similar to those experienced in September 2019 [9][4] Group 2: US Fiscal Policy and Tariff Revenue - The US federal government's tariff revenue reached a record net income of $30 billion in September, largely due to increased tariffs implemented since April 2025 [9][11] - The cumulative tariff revenue for the first half of the year is projected to be $152 billion, with an annual estimate of $300 billion, which could alleviate some fiscal pressures [11] - However, industries reliant on imports, such as manufacturing and retail, have faced significant challenges due to these tariffs, impacting their second-quarter performance [11] Group 3: US Treasury Market Dynamics - The US economy showed a GDP growth of 3.8% in Q2, driven by AI technology and policies from the Trump administration, yet investor confidence in dollar assets remains divided [13][15] - Many central banks are adjusting their foreign exchange reserves by selling US Treasuries and buying gold, indicating a shift towards safer assets [15] - The volatility in the US Treasury market has increased, with long-term investors like central banks and pension funds becoming more cautious about entering the market [17][19] Group 4: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is experiencing pressure on macro liquidity due to a slowdown in government bond issuance and the expiration of several monetary policy tools [22][24] - With valuations returning to historical averages, the market may face adjustment risks, although the upcoming Q3 earnings reports could provide clarity on performance expectations [24][26] - The overall liquidity in the A-share market is closely tied to the inflow of capital, with current conditions suggesting a stable range around 4000 points [24][26] Group 5: Long-term Market Trends - The global monetary system is undergoing changes, and domestic industries are upgrading, presenting potential structural opportunities in sectors like gold and technology [28]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, international gold prices have experienced a remarkable surge, significantly outperforming traditional stock and bond assets, with a cumulative increase of 65.74% [8][22]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Major investment banks initially projected gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by year-end, but this target was surpassed effortlessly in the fourth quarter [3]. - As of October 21, international gold prices approached $4,500 per ounce, while domestic gold futures exceeded 1,000 yuan per gram, marking a historical high [4]. - The gold ETF (159937) saw a year-to-date increase of over 59%, outperforming many other popular sectors [4][31]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical events, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. government shutdown, have caused significant fluctuations in gold prices, yet investor enthusiasm for gold assets remains high [7][20]. - Following a recent drop in gold prices, there is speculation that this may present a new buying opportunity for investors [8]. Group 3: Investment Flows - The total scale of gold-themed ETFs in mainland China reached 236.13 billion yuan, a 223% increase from the beginning of the year [16]. - The gold ETF (159937) has seen a net inflow of 13.25 billion yuan this year, ranking among the top in its category [16]. Group 4: Individual Stock Performance - Nearly 20 gold-related stocks in the A-share market have doubled in value this year, with Zijin Mining's market capitalization increasing by 105.6% to nearly 800 billion yuan [18]. Group 5: Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with a significant shift observed since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, leading to a current valuation of approximately $4.5 trillion in gold reserves [25][27]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month, indicating a strategic shift towards gold as a "risk-free asset" [27]. Group 6: Future Outlook - International institutions have raised their gold price targets for 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, suggesting further potential for price increases [29]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and geopolitical tensions are expected to continue driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [24][25]. Group 7: Investment Strategies - For ordinary investors, gold ETFs are recommended as a more accessible and lower-risk investment option compared to physical gold or individual stocks [30][31].

贝森特毫不讳言此举的政治动机，称其目的是为了给阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱（Javier Milei）的政党在 近期地方选举中表现不佳后，提供一座"通往（中期）选举的桥梁"，以改善其政治命运。 这一举动直接冲击了过去美国动用此类财政工具的惯例。以往，美国财政部外汇稳定基金（ESF）的使 用通常限于应对意料之外的外部冲击或可能威胁美国金融稳定的系统性危机。此次为支持特定政治人物 而动用财政火力，让外界愈发担忧，在特朗普明确寻求让美联储服务于其政治目标的背景下，原本独立 的美联储是否还能在全球危机中，如以往一样可靠地提供美元流动性。 特朗普政府动用美国财政工具以提振阿根廷总统政治前景的举动，正引发市场对美元"武器化"的深层忧 虑。 最新动态是，特朗普政府宣布将向阿根廷提供金融支持，特朗普和财政部长贝森特将其描述为一种"互 换"。然而，分析人士指出，这并非传统意义上由央行执行的、旨在稳定市场的流动性互换安排，而更 像是一笔动用纳税人资金、由财政部自由裁量的贷款。 "如果美联储说不？"：一个不再是学术的难题 "如果美联储拒绝提供流动性会怎样？"这已不再是一个学术问题。根据Heidi Crebo-Rediker与Dougla ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the politicization of the Federal Reserve has shifted from its independence in interest rate decisions to the potential political use of dollar swap lines, which are crucial for global financial stability [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Swap Lines - Dollar swap lines serve as a liquidity channel for the dollar, activated by the Federal Reserve during crises to prevent stagnation in the dollar-dominated global financial system [1]. - Currently, the Federal Reserve has permanent dollar swap lines with five major central banks: the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Canada [1]. - In past crises (2008 and 2020), the Federal Reserve temporarily provided swap lines to nine additional countries, including Brazil, Australia, and Mexico, but these have since been discontinued [1]. Group 2: Political Implications - The influence of former President Trump raises questions about whether the Federal Reserve will provide dollars to foreign central banks during crises, suggesting that such decisions may become increasingly politicized [2]. - The South Korean central bank governor indicated that currency swaps are becoming a highly politicized issue rather than purely economic [2]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary mentioned that all options, including currency swap lines, are being considered to stabilize the Argentine market, highlighting a differing approach towards various countries [2]. Group 3: Broader Context - The Federal Reserve's role, originally intended to safeguard global financial stability, is increasingly entangled in political maneuvering [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. The process of Chinese residents moving their deposits indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major asset classes, such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - In the September Fed meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, reducing the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%. This is the first interest rate cut this year. The statement noted a slowdown in US employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and an increase in employment downside risks. The median interest rate forecast shows that the Fed expects three interest rate cuts this year and one more next year [8]. Domestic Macro - In China, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity need to be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is stable, supporting the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that more special bond funds may be used for debt resolution rather than infrastructure. With the uncertain implementation of the 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments, the demand for physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. Investors in financial assets are recommended to focus on the process of residents moving their deposits and inflation changes [8]. Asset Views - For global major asset classes, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is favorable for risk assets. In China, as residents are moving their deposits, the risk preference is rising. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. The allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the fourth - quarter allocation opportunities can be considered [8]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences, and the short - term judgment is sideways due to the decline of incremental funds. For stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the short - term judgment is sideways considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity. For treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is sideways with concerns about unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - With the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increasing risk of the Fed's independence, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise sideways, while paying attention to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in the third quarter fades and loading is under pressure, there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - For steel, the macro - environment is favorable, but there are still real - world pressures. The short - term judgment is sideways, paying attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. For iron ore, with a slight increase in pig iron production, the price fluctuates sideways, and factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic pig iron production, weather, and port inventory need to be monitored. For coke, with strong cost support, the price fluctuates at a high level, and factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment should be noted. For coking coal, with the rebound of spot coal prices and a slight increase in supply, the short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. For other products like silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, the short - term judgments are all sideways, each with its own key points of concern [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For copper, due to supply disruptions in copper mines, the price fluctuates upward sideways, and factors such as supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, and Fed policy need to be considered. For aluminum, zinc, and other metals, most of them have inventory accumulation issues, and the short - term judgments are sideways, with different risk and concern factors for each. For lead, with a decline in secondary lead supply, the price fluctuates upward sideways. For nickel, due to the crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia, the price fluctuates widely. For stainless steel, with strong cost support, the price rises significantly, and specific risks and demand factors should be noted [9]. Energy and Chemicals - For most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and various fuels, the short - term judgments are mainly sideways or sideways - down, with different influencing factors such as OPEC + production policies, geopolitical situations, and cost - end changes. For chemical products like methanol, PTA, and short - fiber, the short - term judgments are also sideways, each affected by factors such as macro - energy, upstream - downstream device dynamics, and demand [11]. Agriculture - For most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and fibers, the short - term judgments are sideways, with factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts to be considered [11].

Group 1 - The report discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating that the current environment is favorable for these markets due to improved dollar liquidity [1][4] - The report categorizes the Federal Reserve's rate cuts into two types: preventive rate cuts and crisis rate cuts, with different implications for asset performance [1][6] - Historical data shows that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks tend to benefit from preventive rate cuts, with a 100% probability of A-shares rising in the three months following such cuts [3][28] Group 2 - The report highlights that during the preventive rate cut cycles, global stock markets, including the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index, generally experience upward trends [3][21] - It notes that the current bull market phase for A-shares is driven by several factors, including low penetration rates in key sectors such as AI, humanoid robots, solid-state batteries, and semiconductors [4][1] - The report emphasizes that the upcoming phases of rate cuts may lead to repeated trading expectations, which could further enhance the liquidity environment for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4][1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For global major assets, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. Domestically, the process of household deposit transfer indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets, such as CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting at 0:00 on September 18th. The market's baseline assumption for the interest - rate decision is a 25 - basis - point rate cut, with a small probability of a 50 - basis - point cut. After the lower - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the release of US inflation data in August provides another reason for the Fed to cut rates: inflation has not significantly increased due to tariffs. The intensifying personnel turmoil among Fed governors has also boosted market expectations for a rate cut [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Domestically, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity should be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is generally stable, which supports the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that the subsequent use of special bonds may be more for debt resolution and less for physical work such as infrastructure. Considering the uncertain implementation rhythm of 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments, the demand impulse for the physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. For investors interested in financial assets, it is recommended to monitor the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [7]. - **Asset Views**: It is recommended to pay more attention to liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets. Specifically, investors should focus on CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Additionally, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be considered [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the decline of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the expanding risk of the Fed's independence are driving prices up. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has ended, and there is no upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: Steel mills' profits are shrinking, and the supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, hot - metal production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather factors, and changes in port ore inventory [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot - metal production has returned to a high level, and port inventory has slightly increased. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather factors, and changes in port ore inventory and policy dynamics [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: Supply has increased significantly, and the second round of price cuts has begun. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has basically recovered, and the spot market sentiment is cautious. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the upward driving force is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply has slightly increased, and expectations are still fluctuating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Middle - stream concentrated pick - up has led to continuous inventory reduction. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and copper prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and unexpected slowdown in domestic demand recovery [8]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected electrolytic - aluminum resumption, and extreme market trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro risks, supply disturbances, and unexpected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery in zinc - ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead has decreased, and lead prices are oscillating upward. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply shortages [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel market has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including changes in the expectation of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, suppressing the upward space of silicon prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Valuation repair has been realized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the progress of cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Option positions are concentrated at 3500, and there is intense competition between long and short positions. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including sanctions and supply disturbances [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Russian fuel - oil exports have reached a new high, and the fuel - oil market is weak. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including geopolitical situations and crude - oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates widely following crude - oil prices. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the key point being crude - oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: The contradiction between near - term and far - term contracts is still large, and methanol is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - energy factors and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Urea has returned to a fundamental - driven decline and is waiting for new positive factors. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the actual implementation of exports and market - sentiment changes under long - term pressure [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Expectations are leading, and the market is pessimistic about future production - capacity pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including coal and oil price fluctuations, port - inventory rhythms, and device implementation [10]. - **PX**: Fundamental driving forces are limited, and prices mainly follow costs under the temporary support of PXN. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including significant crude - oil fluctuations, macro - level changes, and unexpected weakness in the peak - demand season [10]. - **PTA**: The willingness to hold goods is low, and spot liquidity is abundant, suppressing the basis. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including significant crude - oil fluctuations, macro - level changes, and unexpected weakness in the peak season [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Raw - material support is average, and processing fees have improved under factory price - holding. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The off - season of demand is deepening, with significant constraints. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and terminal demand [10]. - **Propylene**: The reduction in the volume of propane and PL commodities has boosted prices, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic macro - economic conditions [10]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic and international macro - economic conditions [10]. - **Plastic**: Peak - season demand provides slight support, and plastic is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic and international macro - economic conditions [10]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices, macro - economic policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: Weak reality and strong expectations coexist, and PVC is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked and declined, and caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including market sentiment, production starts, and demand [10]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products - **Oils**: The good - condition rate of US soybeans has continued to decline, and oils continued to oscillate strongly yesterday. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices are dragging down the futures market, and futures prices are testing the lower - limit support. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - economic factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The number of incoming vehicles is at a high level, and both futures and spot prices are oscillating weakly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected demand, macro - economic factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Spot - market pressure continues, and the futures market is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: It is running strongly and has returned above 16,000. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - economic changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It continues to oscillate. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being significant crude - oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: There is strong support at the bottom, and cotton prices have rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are oscillating slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being imports [10]. - **Pulp**: Market sentiment is stable, and pulp has entered a range - bound market. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - based quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Market sentiment has rebounded, and double - glued paper is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production starts [10]. - **Logs**: Processing demand has slightly recovered, and there is an expectation of spot - price increases. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including shipment volume and delivery volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For overseas markets, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting on the early morning of September 18. The market expects a 25bp rate cut, with a small probability of a 50bp cut. US inflation data and the Fed's personnel issues boost the rate - cut expectation [8]. - Domestically, observe the progress of physical work in Q4 and changes in financial market liquidity. Special bond issuance supports infrastructure demand, but there are risks of more funds used for debt reduction. The demand pulse for commodity consumption may be postponed to the end of Q4. Investors should also focus on the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [8]. - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for risk assets. Domestically, as the process of household deposit transfer indicates a rising risk preference, investors are recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, pay attention to the Q4 allocation opportunities of Chinese bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting on September 18 is crucial. Market expects rate cuts due to inflation data and personnel issues [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: Special bond issuance supports infrastructure, but there are risks of more funds for debt reduction. The demand for commodity consumption may be postponed. Investors should focus on household deposit transfer and inflation [8]. - **Asset Views**: Improvements in US dollar liquidity benefit risk assets. Domestically, focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets and Q4 Chinese bond allocation opportunities [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. Short - term judgment is oscillation due to the attenuation of incremental funds [10]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. Short - term judgment is oscillation due to potential deterioration of option market liquidity [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with concerns about tariff, supply, and monetary policy surprises [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Dovish expectations drive prices up. Short - term judgment is oscillatory rise, with attention on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [10]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the rate of freight decline. Short - term judgment is oscillation as the peak season fades and there is no upward driving force [10]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Steel mill profits shrink, and supply - demand is weak. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [10]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production is high, and port inventory slightly increases. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and other factors [10]. - **Coke**: Supply increases significantly, and the second - round price cut starts. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on steel mill production, coking cost, and macro sentiment [10]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has basically recovered, and the spot market is cautious. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on steel mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [10]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply - demand tends to be loose, and the market is under pressure. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on raw material cost and steel procurement [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and there is limited upward driving force. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on cost price and overseas quotes [10]. - **Glass**: Supply slightly increases, and expectations are still volatile. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on spot sales [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Middle - stream inventory is decreasing. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on soda ash inventory [10]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Supply of recycled copper is tight, and copper prices are strong. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [10]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakening, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on ore production and electrolytic aluminum复产 [10]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory is accumulating, and aluminum prices are falling. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [10]. - **Zinc**: Inventory is accumulating, and zinc prices are weak. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on macro risks and zinc - ore supply [10]. - **Lead**: Social inventory slightly decreases, and lead prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply disruptions and battery exports [10]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory increases significantly, and nickel prices fluctuate widely. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are slightly accumulating, and the market is weak. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on Indonesian policies and demand [10]. - **Tin**: Inventory in two markets slightly increases, and tin prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on Wa State's复产 and demand improvement [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is increasing, and silicon prices are capped. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The peak - season supply - demand gap is less than expected, and prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillatory rise, with attention on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [10]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances exist. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [13]. - **LPG**: Valuation has been repaired, and focus on cost - end guidance. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil and overseas propane costs [13]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt futures prices are below 3500. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on sanctions and supply disruptions [13]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Production increase is disturbed by geopolitics, and prices first fall then rise. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on geopolitics and crude oil prices [13]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Follows crude oil in wide - range oscillations. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on crude oil prices [13]. - **Methanol**: There is a large contradiction between near - and far - month contracts. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [13]. - **Urea**: Returns to fundamentals and is under pressure. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on export and market sentiment [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is pessimistic about future production capacity. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on coal, oil prices, port inventory, and device commissioning [13]. - **PX**: Fundamental drivers are limited, and prices follow costs. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and demand [13]. - **PTA**: Low inventory - holding willingness and sufficient spot liquidity suppress basis. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil, macro, and demand [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: Raw material support is average, and processing fees are recovering. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on downstream yarn - mill purchases and demand [13]. - **Bottle Chip**: Demand is in the off - season. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [13]. - **Propylene**: Reduction in propane and PL commodity volume boosts prices. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic macro [13]. - **PP**: May find support near previous lows. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro [13]. - **Plastic**: Peak - season demand provides slight support. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro [13]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment improves, and focus on policy details. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [13]. - **PVC**: Weak reality and strong expectations. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on expectations, cost, and supply [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices are falling. Short - term judgment is cautious decline, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [13]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Focus on the sustainability of the upward trend. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil supply - demand [13]. - **Protein Meal**: Prices fall after China - US - Spain talks. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [13]. - **Corn/Starch**: Imported corn increases, and futures prices fall. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on demand, macro, and weather [13]. - **Pig**: Pig supply is abundant, and prices are oscillating at a low level. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [13]. - **Rubber**: Short - term support is strong. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [13]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Continues the oscillatory trend. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil fluctuations [13]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are well - supported, and focus on new - cotton purchases. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on demand and inventory [13]. - **Sugar**: The short - term downward space is limited, and prices rebound. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on imports [13]. - **Pulp**: Rebounds after continuous decline, and it's better to wait and see. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macroeconomic changes and US dollar - based quotes [13]. - **Offset Paper**: Lacks upward and downward drivers, and prices oscillate around the listing price. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [13]. - **Log**: New warehouse receipts are registered, and prices oscillate around 800. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on shipment and dispatch volumes [13].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but showed signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.22% at 25,773.56 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.27% to 5,840.71 points [1] - Major tech stocks like NetEase, Kuaishou, Xiaomi, and Tencent turned positive, while Alibaba fell over 1% [1] - Gold prices increased due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, benefiting gold and non-ferrous metal stocks, with China Gold International and Lingbao Gold rising over 6% [1] - The gaming sector saw a significant rise, with Kingsoft Holdings surging over 19% post-earnings [1] Company Earnings - Haidilao reported a revenue of 20.703 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.76 billion yuan, down 13.7% [2] - Times Electric's revenue was approximately 12.594 billion yuan, down 7.7%, with a net profit of about 264 million yuan, a decrease of 20.2% [2] - China Software International achieved a revenue of approximately 8.51 billion yuan, up 7.3%, and a net profit of 316 million yuan, up 10.4% [2] - CIFI Holdings reported a revenue of approximately 7.09 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7%, and a net profit of about 769 million yuan, up 4.3% [3] - BOE Technology Group's revenue was 6.671 billion yuan, an increase of about 8%, with a net profit of approximately 180 million yuan, up 5% [3] - JunDa Holdings reported a revenue of approximately 3.656 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.5%, with a net loss of about 264 million yuan, widening by 58.5% [3] - Yihai International maintained stable performance with a revenue of approximately 2.927 billion yuan and a net profit of about 310 million yuan [4] - Innovent Biologics reported a revenue of approximately 2.82 billion yuan, up 2.7%, and a net profit of about 390 million yuan, up around 1% [5] - Maoyan Entertainment achieved a revenue of approximately 2.472 billion yuan, up 13.9%, but adjusted net profit fell by 33.2% to 235 million yuan [5] - Green Tea Group reported a revenue of approximately 2.29 billion yuan, up 23.1%, and a net profit of about 234 million yuan, up 34% [6] - Hopson Development issued a profit warning, expecting a mid-term net loss exceeding 1.6 billion yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [7] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that foreign capital still has room to increase allocation to the Chinese market, with a focus on improving domestic fundamentals and potential appreciation of the RMB [8] - China Merchants Securities remains optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting a high earnings pre-announcement rate and suggesting a focus on sectors with differentiation from A-shares [8] - Shenwan Hongyuan indicated that the recent underperformance of the Hong Kong index is a phase of consolidation, with previously low earnings expectations likely to regain market favor [9] - GF Securities emphasized the long-term value of the Hong Kong market, supported by improved liquidity and continued inflow of southbound funds [9] - Guotai Junan projected that undervalued Hong Kong stocks could rise further, driven by technology breakthroughs, potential foreign capital return, and additional southbound fund inflows [9]