Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The trade situation affects demand expectations, and the energy and chemical sector is generally in a weak and volatile state. Macro data shows a weakening economic pattern, and chemical demand is unlikely to perform strongly, with futures prices expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure continues, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances. Short - term macro - level positives boost oil prices, but terminal demand is weak. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical factors lead to oil price fluctuations [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [5] Asphalt - **View**: The rise in crude oil drives up the asphalt futures price. However, factors such as OPEC+ production increase, sufficient domestic raw material supply, and high asphalt cracking spread suggest that the current price is overvalued [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [5] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price rises following crude oil. But with the increase in heavy - oil supply and the weakening of demand drivers, the supply - demand situation is unfavorable [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [5] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates following crude oil. It is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low valuation [6] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [6] LPG - **View**: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of PG is limited. Although the spot price has stabilized, the fundamental supply is loose, and the demand is weak [6][7] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [7] PX - **View**: Affected by polyester production cuts, PX prices decline. Short - term crude oil weakness squeezes PX cost, and the supply - demand pattern is in a state of game [8] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [8] PTA - **View**: Affected by polyester production cuts, PTA prices decline. PTA is in a state of inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to whether polyester factories increase production cuts [8] - **Mid - term Outlook**: High - level volatile in the single - side market [8] Benzene Ethylene - **View**: The current situation is still poor, and benzene ethylene is expected to be in a weakly volatile state. Although the cost side has improved, supply is increasing, and demand is average [8][9] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [9] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: There is an expected reduction in supply, and the near - end is strong. If US ethane exports are restricted, EG supply will decrease, and current demand is acceptable [10] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [10] Short - Fiber - **View**: Terminal demand is low, and it is difficult to expand the processing fee. Terminal demand is the main negative factor, and the short - fiber may not be stronger than raw materials [10][11] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [11] Bottle Chip - **View**: The processing fee is further compressed, and there are no highlights in the situation. The supply pressure is large, and the price follows the raw materials [13] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [13] Methanol - **View**: The port continues to accumulate inventory, and methanol fluctuates. Supply is relatively loose, port inventory is increasing, and the support from downstream olefins is limited [16] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [16] Urea - **View**: The market is weak, waiting for the callback opportunity when agricultural demand is released. Supply is high, agricultural demand has not yet been concentrated, and industrial demand is weakening [14][16] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [16] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The cost side has some support, but the supply pressure is high, and demand is weak [19] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [19] PP - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. Similar to LLDPE, the cost side has support, but supply is increasing, and demand is average [20][21] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [21] PVC - **View**: Short - term sentiment warms up, and PVC has a weak rebound. Although the market sentiment has improved, the long - term fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity, weak demand, and other factors [22] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [22] Caustic Soda - **View**: Strong current situation but weak expectations, mainly short - selling on rallies. Although the current supply is tight, the supply expectation for the 09 contract is pessimistic [22] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [22] Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) is 5 with a change of 0, WTI (M1 - M2) is 0.92 with a change of - 0.04, etc. [23] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 173 with a change of 9, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [24] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA is - 93 with a change of 10 [25] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the content

Group 1: Market Overview - LME three-month copper price fell by $12.50 or 0.13%, closing at $9,621.50 per ton on June 4 [1][2] - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,500 tons or 1.74%, reaching a near one-year low of 141,350 tons [4] Group 2: Trade Developments - President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025 [3] - The U.S. Trade Representative's office sent a letter to trade partners reminding them of the upcoming deadline for trade negotiations [3] Group 3: Price Dynamics - COMEX copper price rose by 1.21% to $4.8925 per pound, with a premium over LME copper of $1,164.6 per ton [7] - LME tin led the gains among base metals, rising by $640 or 2.04%, closing at $32,018 per ton due to supply concerns [8]

Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic landscape last week lacked significant data guidance, with trade tensions once again dominating the market, leading to a somewhat chaotic situation [1][3] - COMEX gold and silver prices experienced declines of 2.17% and 1.68% respectively, while COMEX copper saw a decrease of 3.35% [2][4] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - COMEX gold and silver fluctuated within the range of $3269 to $3385 per ounce and $32.8 to $33.8 per ounce respectively, with gold prices down by 1.8% and silver by 1.7% [21][22] - The market's risk appetite fluctuated due to the back-and-forth nature of tariff expectations, with a rebound in precious metal prices following Trump's threats to impose 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum [4][21] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing uncertainties abroad and the supportive credit logic of the dollar [52] Group 2: Base Metals Market - COMEX copper prices showed a strong upward trend, primarily driven by concerns over potential tariffs on copper [5][6] - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was reported at -$43.80 per dry ton, indicating a stable market despite limited trading activity [8] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories decreased to 139,300 tons, reflecting a reduction in market arrivals and a general lack of significant supply increases [14] Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 0.1 million ounces to 38.79 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by about 690,000 ounces [36] - SPDR gold ETF holdings rose by 7.7 tons to 930 tons, indicating a shift in market positioning [41] - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 3,975 contracts, while short positions fell by 14,178 contracts, suggesting a cautious market sentiment [41][42]

铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 有色金属日报 2025-6-3 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价小幅冲高后回落，伦铜周跌 1.22%至 9497 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77600 元/吨，端午 假期间特朗普威胁提高钢铁和铝关税导致美铜走强，贵金属和原油价格亦上涨，伦铜上涨 1.24%。产 业层面，上周三大交易所库存环比减少 0.2 万吨，其中上期所库存增加 0.7 至 10.6 万吨，LME 库存 减少 1.5 至 15.0 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.5 至 16.4 万吨。上海保税区库 ...

6月2日，现货黄金日内涨超2%，现报3357美元/盎司。 港股黄金股大涨。潼关黄金涨近17%，赤峰黄金涨超6%，中国黄金国际涨近5%。 全球贸易局势因特朗普政府的"钢铁关税"迅速升级，与此同时地缘政治风险也因俄乌冲突在急剧上升。 因地缘政治紧张局势，布伦特原油、WTI原油双双飙升约4%。 消息面上，俄乌方面，据央视新闻，乌克兰透露，6月1日当天对俄发起特别行动，用无人机摧毁了俄41 架战略轰炸机，俄罗斯主要机场中约34%的战略轰炸机遭到攻击。俄媒表示，乌方说法纯属谣言。 根据乌克兰通报，乌方无人机深入俄境4000多公里，同时对俄罗斯空天军四个战略轰炸机基地进行攻 击。如果该消息属实，那么按照俄罗斯军事博主的说法，此次袭击的规模和影响可以比作"俄罗斯珍珠 港事件"，俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中的急剧升级可能迫在眉睫。 关税方面，5月30日，美国总统特朗普表示将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。欧盟表示遗憾，并 准备反击。据美国媒体6月1日报道，美国商务部长卢特尼克称，尽管特朗普政府关税政策正在面临司法 纷争，但是美总统拥有其他可以实施关税的权力；即使关税政策被取消，美政府也会采取其他行动。 当地时间5月28日，美国 ...

英国央行行长贝利：目前我们面临的挑战是尚不清楚贸易局势的最终结果如何。 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - Analysts from Swissquote Bank indicate that improved global economic growth expectations may enhance investor confidence, leading to a potential rise in major stock indices as corporate earnings outlook improves and risk appetite increases [1] - The lifting of tariffs could reduce friction costs in international trade, promoting operational efficiency for multinational companies and boosting overall economic activity [1] - The US dollar is expected to attract investment as risk aversion diminishes and economic growth prospects improve [1] Group 2: Impact of US Court Ruling on Tariffs - Moody's analysts highlight that the US court's decision to block tariff increases is a positive development for emerging markets severely affected by high reciprocal tariffs, as it may alleviate the cost burden on exports [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the government's potential appeal against the court ruling may lead investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach before making significant investment decisions [2][3] Group 3: Regional Economic Indicators - Westpac Banking's economists report a significant decline in New Zealand's business confidence index from 49.3% in April to 36.6%, indicating heightened concerns over trade conflicts [2] - The construction sector experienced the largest drop in confidence, reflecting specific challenges faced by the industry [2] - The Korean International Trade Association anticipates a reduction in the trade surplus between South Korea and the US, projecting a surplus of $55.6 billion in 2024, a 25% increase year-on-year [4] Group 4: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - Analysts from ABC Refinery note that the US court ruling has led to a significant rise in the US dollar, which in turn has pressured gold prices lower [4] - Goldman Sachs suggests that traditional 60/40 investment portfolios face greater challenges amid rising global macro uncertainty, recommending increased allocations to gold and oil to enhance portfolio resilience [3]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced fluctuations on May 28, with the market focusing on the pressure within the trading range. The previous day's market was influenced by the U.S. market closure, leading to continued volatility due to changing tariff situations, which has pressured gold prices. The market now anticipates a potential agreement, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, resulting in significant capital withdrawal from the gold market [1] - Multiple bearish factors are contributing to the decline in gold prices. The strengthening U.S. dollar has created pressure on gold priced in dollars, with the dollar index rising against a basket of currencies, particularly a 1% increase against the yen [2] - The strong performance of global stock markets has diverted funds from gold. On the previous day, the Dow Jones surged by 740 points (1.78%), the S&P 500 rose by 2.05%, and the Nasdaq increased by 2.47%, with technology stocks leading the rally, attracting capital away from safe-haven assets [2] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted. The Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari called for maintaining stable interest rates until the impact of tariffs on inflation becomes clearer. This statement reinforced expectations that the Fed may pause interest rate hikes, which theoretically should support gold prices, but was overlooked in the current risk-on sentiment [2] - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture. The U.S. consumer confidence index unexpectedly jumped by 14.4% in May, exceeding economists' expectations, while April's core durable goods orders saw the largest decline in six months, indicating weakened business investment at the start of Q2. This contradictory economic signal suggests a delicate moment for the U.S. economy, with executives delaying capital projects until policies become clearer, although optimism prevails in the current market environment [2] Market Data - Current spot gold is priced around $3350 per ounce, while spot silver is at $33.50 per ounce [3] - The dollar index is currently in a fluctuating rebound phase, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [3] Trend Analysis - The silver market is currently in a price consolidation phase, suggesting a strategy of placing long positions near support and short positions near resistance [7] - Technical indicators for silver show that the K-line is operating near the lower boundary, with support at 32.05. The MACD indicates a downward trend, and market activity is decreasing, suggesting cautious trading and potential low-position long and high-position short strategies [7] Trading Strategy - A proposed trading strategy includes placing short positions around $33.35, with a stop-loss at $33.68 and take-profit targets between $34.00 and $34.60 [7]

在当前复杂多变的市场环境下，投资者宜保持谨慎乐观态度。一方面，贸易局势缓和带来的风险偏好回 升可能继续压制金价；另一方面，地缘政治风险、经济数据疲软以及美联储货币政策转向的可能性，都 可能为黄金提供潜在支撑。对于中长期投资者而言，黄金作为多元化投资组合的重要组成部分，仍具有 不可替代的价值。短期交易者则需要密切关注即将公布的美联储会议纪要和经济数据，以及美欧贸易谈 判的最新进展，这些都可能成为引发金价新一轮波动的催化剂。 展望后市，黄金走势将取决于多重因素的博弈。本交易日将公布的美联储最近一次政策会议纪要可能提 供更多货币政策线索。此外，周四出炉美国第一季度GDP数据修正值、周度失业金请领人数，周五出炉 核心PCE物价指数等重要数据，这些都可能影响市场对经济前景的判断。从技术面看，金价在3285附近 获得一定支撑，但若跌破这一水平，可能进一步下探3250美元附近支撑位。上行方面，3350美元构成短 期阻力，突破后有望挑战3400美元心理关口。 亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，目前交投于3307.34美元/盎司附近，受到逢低买盘支撑。金价在本周二 上演惊心动魄的一幕。现货黄金价格盘中一度跌破3300美元重要心理关口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by overseas trade negotiations and the precious - metal's safe - haven property. Short - term supply disruptions may drive copper prices up, but mid - term economic weakening risks need attention [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventories, but the overall commodity atmosphere and overseas trade situation may cause fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, and the inter - month spread may widen [3]. - For lead, the decline in scrap battery prices has led to a drop in lead prices. If scrap production cuts deepen, lead prices may fall further [4]. - Zinc has an excess supply expectation. With the increase in zinc ingot inventory, zinc prices face a certain downward risk in the medium term [6]. - Tin's supply is temporarily tight but is expected to ease. Weak demand may cause the tin price center to shift down [8]. - Nickel has high macro - uncertainty. Although the short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, the subsequent trend is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices lack a reversal driver. High supply and inventory, along with falling overseas concentrate prices, may lead to a weak operation of lithium prices [11]. - Alumina has an overcapacity situation, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short - sell lightly on rallies [14]. - Stainless steel is in a weak and oscillating pattern due to low terminal demand and cost support from raw materials [16]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Performance**: LME was closed, the dollar index declined slightly, and copper prices oscillated. The SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, bonded - area inventory continued to decline, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased to 3.3 million tons [1]. - **Price and Spread**: The spot premium in Shanghai increased to 185 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened to 970 yuan/ton. The trading range for the SHFE copper main contract is 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9,500 - 9,700 US dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: LME was closed, domestic inventory declined, and affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, aluminum prices oscillated. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,170 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory and Position**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract's open interest increased by 0.8 million hands to 52.6 million hands, and warehouse receipts decreased to 5.5 million tons. Aluminum ingot and rod social inventories continued to decline [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The spot premium in East China increased to 90 yuan/ton. The trading range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,430 - 2,490 US dollars/ton [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.39% to 16,793 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory and Price**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 3.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 4.01 million tons. The refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.16% to 22,177 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory and Export**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.18 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 7.88 million tons. In April, the export volume of unforged zinc alloys reached 1,280.23 tons [6]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ore has an excess expectation, and zinc prices may decline in the medium term [6]. Tin - **Supply**: The resumption of tin - mine production is slow. From January to April, domestic tin - ore imports decreased by 47.98% year - on - year. The supply of raw materials is tight in the short term [8]. - **Demand**: Downstream orders have not increased significantly, and only rigid - demand purchases are made [8]. - **Inventory and Price**: SMM's three - place inventory increased to 10,333 tons. The trading range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is 30,000 - 35,000 US dollars/ton [8]. Nickel - **Macro and Supply - Demand**: Sino - US tariffs are temporarily eased, but the overall tax rate is still high. Refined nickel production is at a historical high, and stainless - steel market demand is weak [9]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Philippine laterite nickel - ore prices are stable, Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore prices are difficult to rise, and hydrometallurgical ore prices are stable after a decline [9]. - **Product Prices**: Nickel - iron prices are stable and rising, MHP prices are high in the short term, and nickel - sulfate prices are expected to strengthen. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the SHFE nickel main - contract price range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M of 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index fell 1.34%, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices declined. The LC2507 contract price fell 1.41% [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Supply remains high, downstream restocking expectations are not fulfilled, and domestic social inventory is at a historical high [11]. - **Outlook**: Lithium prices may operate weakly, and the trading range for the LC2507 contract is 59,400 - 60,800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The alumina index fell 3.44% to 3,056 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 0.6 million hands [13]. - **Inventory and Price**: Spot prices in some regions increased, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.66 million tons. The Australian FOB price is stable, and the import profit and loss turned positive [13][14]. - **Strategy**: Short - selling lightly on rallies is recommended, with the domestic main - contract AO2509 trading range of 2,850 - 3,400 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,875 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The open interest decreased by 14,171 hands [16]. - **Inventory and Price**: Social inventory increased by 0.85%, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42%. Spot prices in some markets were stable, and raw - material prices changed slightly [16]. - **Outlook**: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [16].