Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of the US PCE data for July, which came in at 2.9%, matching market expectations and marking the highest level since February 2025, indicating a stable inflation outlook for the Federal Reserve [2] - The market reaction to the PCE data was muted, as it did not deviate from expectations, thus avoiding significant volatility in equities, gold, and cryptocurrencies [2] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for August is highlighted as a critical indicator for potential interest rate cuts, with the PCE serving as a background context [2] Group 2 - The July non-farm payroll data showed a weak increase of only 73,000 jobs, with downward revisions for the previous two months, which could justify a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - If the August non-farm payroll data falls significantly below 73,000, market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September may resurface [3] - Conversely, if the data exceeds 73,000, particularly if it surpasses 150,000, the Federal Reserve may reconsider its stance, especially in light of the upcoming CPI data [2][3] Group 3 - A report titled "Global Market Strategy: September Outlook" raises critical questions regarding the future of A-shares post "9·3" market, potential risks for US equities, and the outlook for gold prices [4] - The report includes a unique analysis predicting the behavior of the Chinese stock market and offers a comprehensive investment strategy manual for navigating A-share market dynamics [4] - It also discusses the implications of a mysterious figure incorporating the Renminbi into a control system, suggesting a bullish outlook for the currency in the coming months [4] Group 4 - The report anticipates significant movements in gold and crude oil markets, providing trading strategies for the upcoming week and forecasts for A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, gold, crude oil, and Renminbi [5] - Wall Street has identified ten Chinese stocks as favorable investments while advising against seven others, indicating a selective approach to stock recommendations [6]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a rebound on Friday (August 22) after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated an openness to interest rate cuts, leading to increased expectations for a September rate cut [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones increased by 1.53%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.26%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.58% [1] Oil Market - International oil prices saw a significant increase due to the lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which suggests that US sanctions on the Russian oil industry will continue [4] - US crude oil inventories showed a substantial decrease, contributing to oil prices rising for the first time in three weeks, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil up by 1.37% and Brent crude up by 2.85% [4] Gold Market - International gold prices rose by over 1% as some investors bought on dips following a period of decline, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar [5] Economic Indicators - The market is closely watching the US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve [6] - Economists expect the core PCE index to remain unchanged at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with a slight year-on-year rebound to 2.9% [8] - Analysts believe that the upcoming inflation data may not hinder the Fed's rate cut in September, but higher-than-expected inflation could dampen rate cut expectations beyond September [9] Earnings Reports - Several technology companies are set to release their latest earnings reports this week, which will be closely monitored by the market [10]

Core Insights - Trump proposes collaboration with Russia to develop rare earth minerals and lift export bans on aircraft parts [1] - US Treasury Secretary Basent suggests immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Canadian central bank maintains current monetary policy amid trade uncertainties [2] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expresses caution regarding the economy, indicating reluctance to support rate cuts without clear signs of job market deterioration [2] Market Developments - US Energy Department allocates $1 billion for mineral security projects to ensure supply chain safety [1] - Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed contracts drop to 6.67%, marking the largest decline since February [1] - Korean ICT exports reach $22.19 billion in July, up 14.5% year-on-year, with semiconductor exports increasing by 31.2% [2] Global Market Dynamics - Dow Jones Industrial Average rises by 1.04% to 44,922.27 points, S&P 500 increases by 0.32% to 6,466.58 points, and Nasdaq Composite grows by 0.14% to 21,713.14 points [3] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures rise by 0.24% to $3,407.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increase by 1.44% to $38.55 per ounce [4] Oil and Bond Markets - US oil main contract decreases by 0.68% to $62.74 per barrel, Brent crude falls by 0.54% to $65.76 per barrel [5] - US Treasury yields decline across various maturities, with the 2-year yield down by 5.84 basis points to 3.668% [5] Currency Movements - US dollar index drops by 0.28% to 97.80, while the euro appreciates by 0.27% against the dollar [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a partial bullish or bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ななな - Alumina: なな女 - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ Core Views - The market is affected by factors such as Sino - US tariff policies, US inflation indicators, and Fed interest - rate expectations. Different metals show various price trends and investment opportunities due to their unique supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiments [2][3][4] - Each metal has its own price characteristics, resistance levels, and trading strategies, which are determined by factors like inventory, production capacity, and downstream demand [3][7][8] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed positive. Spot copper was reported at 79,150 yuan, and the premium of Shanghai flat - water copper widened to 170 yuan. Hold previous high - level short positions [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The spot discount in East China narrowed by 20 yuan to 30 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 23,000 tons compared to Thursday. Consumption remained weak. The peak of aluminum ingot social inventory may occur in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [3] - Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai spot price remained unchanged at 19,800 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry was poor, showing some resilience relative to aluminum prices [3] - The operating capacity of alumina was at a historical high, the total industry inventory increased, and the market was in an oversupply state. Spot transaction prices showed signs of loosening, and spot indices in many places were slightly adjusted downward [3] Zinc - Sino - US tariff extension led to a warm macro - sentiment, and short - sellers reduced their positions, weakening the resistance to the rebound of Shanghai zinc. Downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient, and some traders lowered premiums to sell. There is a phased rebound space for Shanghai zinc, and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded with active market trading. As the domestic anti - involution theme ended, nickel with a relatively poor fundamental situation will return to its fundamentals. Enter short positions actively as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [7] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated during the session and closed down at the end, with increased positions in the market. Spot tin was reported at 270,600 yuan, with a real - time premium of 700 yuan to the delivery - month contract. Wait and see or choose to go short - term long at low prices [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened high and went low with active market trading. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons. Pay attention to risk management due to abnormal price fluctuations [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon increased positions and closed down at 8,890 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate with support at the previous low of 8,300 yuan/ton. Pay attention to whether large factories in Xinjiang will resume production on a large scale [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon fluctuated and slightly closed up. The production schedule in August was significantly increased, and inventory would still restrict the increase of its spot price. It is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and do not chase high at the upper limit [11]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US has increased, causing the US dollar to weaken in the short term. The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to about 80% [3]. - The US second - quarter economic growth rate was higher than expected, but business investment growth slowed. The inflation indicator PCE showed a slight rebound [1]. - The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time due to high economic uncertainty, a stable labor market, and high inflation [2]. - The US non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised down, leading to Trump's decision to replace the BLS局长 [2]. Key Data - The US second - quarter GDP grew 3% quarter - on - quarter, better than the expected 2.4% [1]. - In June, the US PCE annual increase rose from 2.3% to 2.6%, and the core PCE index rose 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7% [1]. - In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The June figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and the May figure was revised down by 125,000 [2]. - After the data release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average once fell more than 400 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 2% [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has risen to about 80% [3]. Policy and Events - Trump signed an executive order to keep the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10% and increased the tariff on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, while extending the current tariff rate on Mexican goods for 90 days [1]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged [2]. - Trump ordered the replacement of the BLS局长 due to poor non - farm payrolls data [2]. US Dollar Index - The US dollar index rebounded in July and reached a two - month high of 100.257 last Friday but weakened short - term after the non - farm data, falling to 99 for consolidation. The resistance level is at 101 [3].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, surpassing the market expectation of 2.4%[1] - The PCE price index rose from 2.3% to 2.6% year-on-year in June, with core PCE increasing to 2.8%[1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive hold[2] - Following the employment report, the probability of a rate cut in September surged to approximately 80%[3] - The Fed's hawkish stance previously led to a six-day rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 100.257[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 400 points after the employment data release, while the Nasdaq dropped over 2%[3] - The U.S. dollar index experienced short-term weakness, retreating to around 99 after the non-farm payroll data[3]

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 closed at $3342.3 per ounce, up $14.4, with a gain of 0.43% [2] - The increase in gold prices was supported by safe-haven demand, despite a slight decline during trading hours due to profit-taking and a significant drop in silver prices [2] - Market analysts attribute the weakness in gold prices and strong selling pressure on silver to the recent sharp decline in copper prices, which fell over 18% due to new tariffs announced by President Trump [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.6% year-on-year in June, slightly above expectations, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, meeting expectations [3] - Despite the record high gold prices, retail investors have returned to the market, boosting global gold demand, with total demand rising to 1249 tons in Q2 2024, a 3% increase from the same period in 2023 [3][4] - The World Gold Council attributed the demand growth to strong investment interest in gold ETFs, coins, and bars, although purchases by central banks and jewelers slowed in Q2 due to high gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the core PCE price index, which is expected to provide direct guidance for the dollar and gold prices [1][5] - The latest ADP report indicates that private sector employment grew by 104,000 in July, exceeding market expectations of 75,000 [2] - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q2 is reported at 3.0%, reversing the previous quarter's decline of 0.5%, indicating a solid economic foundation [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and emphasized that it is not in a hurry to cut rates, which has led to a rise in the dollar and a decline in gold prices [2] - The core PCE price index for June is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with the previous month [4] - If the PCE data, particularly the core indicator, exceeds expectations, the dollar may strengthen further, negatively impacting other major currencies and gold [5] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with key resistance at 3345 and support levels at 3270-3210 [6] - The monthly closing performance of gold is being closely monitored, with a significant focus on whether it can hold above the 3320 level [6] - Short-term outlook for gold remains bearish unless it breaks above the 3312 resistance level [6]

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经北京7月30日电 距美联储议息会议公布仅有一天，但投资者似乎已经对决议没有意外之念，市场买盘纷纷涌入，4个月期以上美 债收益率周二（29日）悉数下跌，中长期美债收益率跌幅较大。当前市场普遍预期，美联储周三公布利率决定时，几乎可以肯定的是， 情况与6月份非常相似，声明内容几乎没有变化，官员们将再次推迟降息。 美联储前货币事务主管、现任耶鲁大学管理学院教授比尔·英格利希表示："如果放松货币政策，他们不会得到任何好处，只会让人觉得 他们是在向总统屈服。所以我认为他们最好的政策当然就是看看数据，做出最好的判断，做出政策决定，并尽可能地解释清楚。" 美国媒体称，两位美联储理事——克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼，可能会对维持联邦基金利率在4.25%-4.5%的水平投反对票。如果是 这样的话，这将是自1993年末以来首次出现多名理事反对的情况。两人都主张降息。沃勒有望在明年接替鲍威尔，这使得他的投票更加 重要。 瑞士宝盛银行的首席经济学家大卫•科尔预计，美联储只有在9月份的联邦公开市场委员会会议上才会恢复降息。FOMC是决定利率的机 构。 科尔说："如果更确定的是，关税推动的通胀飙升只是暂时的 ...

Group 1: Market Adjustments - The bond market experienced significant adjustments from July 21 to 25, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.73% (+6.9bp) and the 30-year yield reaching 1.95% (+7.5bp) due to concentrated negative factors[11] - The average duration of interest rate bond funds, credit bond funds, and financial bond funds has decreased to 3.47 years, 1.24 years, and 1.49 years respectively, indicating a return to relatively safe positions after previously high durations[22] - The net outflow of funds from the banking system dropped significantly from over 4 trillion yuan in early July to less than 3 trillion yuan by July 25, raising concerns in the bond market[24] Group 2: Redemption Pressures - From July 21 to 25, the net subscription index for pure bond funds showed negative values, with significant redemption pressures peaking at -29.2 on July 24[27] - The total scale of wealth management products decreased by 125.2 billion yuan to 30.95 trillion yuan, reflecting redemption pressures amid a strong performance in equity and commodity markets[43] - Despite the redemption pressures, wealth management products continued to show net buying behavior, with a total net purchase of 107.6 billion yuan during the same period, indicating that liquidity management pressures remain manageable[51] Group 3: Risk Preferences and Market Outlook - The recent surge in commodity prices, with increases of 73.4% for coking coal and 43.3% for polysilicon, has raised concerns about inflation and its potential impact on the bond market[33] - The bond market may have already passed its most challenging period, with expectations of a stable funding environment supported by the central bank's actions[41] - The upcoming clarity from U.S.-China negotiations and the July Politburo meeting may influence risk preferences, with potential short-term cooling in the stock market expected[41]