Report Information - Report Title: 2026 Commodity Outlook - Research Team: Guolian Minsheng Securities Forward-looking Research Team - Report Date: February 13, 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Industrial metals: Due to the demand from the electric vehicle, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, and the long - term insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaching the limit, copper and aluminum are recommended for their potentially positive fundamentals [3]. - Minor metals: Benefiting from China's macro - regulation and supervision of strategic minerals and the supply being restricted by mining quotas, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: With their defensive properties, the prices of silver and platinum are expected to enter an upward cycle, so they are recommended [3]. Core Views - The factors influencing commodity prices are divided into short - to - medium - term disturbances, cyclical factors, and trend/structural forces. Capital expenditure in the next 3 - 5 years will affect commodity supply and pricing [3]. Summary by Section 1. Commodity Price Drivers 1.1 Medium - to - Long - Term Influencing Factors: Capital Expenditure Cycle - Copper prices follow the marginal cost pricing principle, while oil prices do not fully conform. The oil price center may have a 5 - year cycle [12][14][15]. 1.2 Short - to - Medium - Term Disturbing Factors: Geopolitics and Supply - Side Restrictions - Commodity price fluctuations caused by geopolitics and supply - side restrictions usually correct within half a year to a year. The flexibility of US shale oil production can offset the impact of OPEC's production changes on oil prices to some extent, and OPEC+ production agreements affect oil prices within 6 months [23]. 1.3 Impact of Technological Progress - The impact of electric vehicle technology on oil demand is slower than on lithium carbonate demand. The new nickel production process has led to a large release of nickel ore capacity, and nickel prices have not outperformed inflation. US natural gas prices have underperformed inflation due to technological progress, and agricultural technological progress has significantly affected agricultural product prices [24][29][34][38]. 2. Traditional Energy: "Stable with Changes", Reshaping the Supply - Demand Structure 2.1 Oil Market - Global oil and gas upstream investment has been increasing since 2020, but it may not return to the high level of 2014 - 2015. OPEC's production recovery may be limited by remaining capacity. Trump's impact on US oil production may be limited. Global oil consumption is increasing, with China and India being the main contributors. The oil market may be in an oversupply situation in 2025 - 2026 [45][51][63][82][87]. 2.2 Natural Gas Market - Asian natural gas demand is stable, and China's dependence on imported LNG has weakened in 2025. US LNG project capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while Europe faces greater LNG import demand [91][98][104][112]. 2.3 Coal Market - Coal remains an important "ballast stone" in the power system. Global coal consumption growth is slowing, and supply is relatively stable. China's coal market is expected to operate stably under the policy of increasing supply and ensuring stable prices [120][126][132]. 3. Steel Industry: Weak Demand, Excess Capacity - Construction steel demand is in a low - growth state, and China's steel exports may be restricted by trade policies. Iron ore supply is expected to be loose, and the coking coal market supply - demand gap is narrowing, with prices fluctuating [134][139][149][159]. 4. Industrial Metals: Improving Supply - Demand Structure, Positive Fundamentals 4.1 Copper - Copper demand is facing a shift in growth drivers, with new energy sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics becoming important demand sources. However, copper exploration investment has been low, and the growth of ore - end resources has been suppressed. The slowdown of recycled copper smelting and the decline of processing fees may support copper prices [165][172][178][192]. 4.2 Aluminum - China's bauxite supply is tight, and imports account for a large proportion, with potential overseas supply disruptions. Global electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing, and China's production is restricted by the capacity ceiling, which may support aluminum prices [199][208][219]. 4.3 Rare Earths - China's rare earth mining and smelting quota growth has slowed down, and the increase in overseas supply is limited [224]. 4.4 Antimony - The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to increase, but domestic antimony mine production growth is limited, and global supply is tightening [230][235]. 4.5 Tungsten - The downstream demand for tungsten is expected to improve with the recovery of the manufacturing industry. However, domestic tungsten mine production growth may slow down, while overseas supply may increase [240][246]. 5. Precious Metals: Entering an Upward Cycle - Silver and platinum - group metals may continue to be in a shortage situation. The industrial demand for silver, especially in the photovoltaic sector, is strong, while the demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive industry may decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration [252][257]. 6. Agricultural Products: Climate Change Challenges, Regional Market Differentiation 6.1 Soybeans - The global soybean supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose. China's soybean consumption may decline, the US renewable fuel production has decreased, and trade policies may affect the soybean trade pattern. North American and South American soybean production has different trends, and China's soybean import volume may decrease [264][269][273][278][294]. 6.2 Corn - Global corn supply is tightening, with inventory decreasing. China's corn consumption is growing steadily, the US corn production has decreased but exports have increased significantly, Brazil's corn production has different trends, and its domestic ethanol production restricts exports [299][300][309][315][320]. 6.3 Wheat - The global wheat market is in a tight - balance state. China and India's imports may increase, Russia and the EU's supply has decreased due to bad weather, while North America and Australia's wheat production has been positively affected by the weather. The supply of major exporting countries is tight, and prices are stabilizing [321][331][332][339][340].

Group 1 - Silver prices are experiencing slight weakness during the Asian trading session, influenced by the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report and inflation data, leading to a consolidation phase in the silver market [1] - Geopolitical tensions remain high but have not escalated further, providing limited selling pressure on precious metals due to safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - Trump has nominated Kevin Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chair, claiming he could drive U.S. economic growth to 15%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.4% and the historical average of 2.8%, indicating potential pressure on Walsh if appointed [3] - Chinese regulators are tightening control over financial institutions' exposure to U.S. Treasury bonds, pushing the offshore RMB to a 34-month high against the dollar at 6.9, reflecting a global trend of reducing dollar assets [3] - An Estonian intelligence report suggests that Russia is using ceasefire negotiations as a manipulation tool, indicating no genuine intent to end military actions, which poses ongoing threats to neighboring countries [3] Group 3 - The next upward target for March silver futures is to break the key resistance level of $92.015, while the short-term downward target for bears is to fall below the important support level of $60 [4] - The first resistance level for silver futures is the overnight high of $83.745, with further resistance at $85; the first support level is this week's low of $83.76, with additional support at $82 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [2] - Intertemporal: None [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost side of asphalt still has support, but attention should be paid to the fluctuations of the overseas market during the holiday. The geopolitical situation, especially the unclear situation in Iran, may cause significant fluctuations in overseas oil prices during the holiday, affecting the opening of crude oil and asphalt futures after the festival. The raw material substitution of domestic refineries is in progress, and the pattern is expected to be clearer after the holiday. Although there is no absolute bottleneck in raw material substitution, the cost increase is likely inevitable. If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, the supply of alternative raw materials will face greater threats, and there is still an upward risk in the market [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 12, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,327 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous settlement price. The position was 30,915 lots, a decrease of 10,276 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 45,617 lots, a decrease of 13,315 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt were 3,506 - 3,700 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,210 - 3,250 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,290 - 3,350 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,250 - 3,280 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in the Northeast and Shandong regions increased yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply and demand in the domestic asphalt spot market are both weak, and the prices fluctuate slightly [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation, and operate with a light position before the holiday [2]. - Intertemporal: No relevant strategy [2]. - Cross-variety: No relevant strategy [2]. - Spot-futures: No relevant strategy [2]. - Options: No relevant strategy [2].

最近，欧洲正在认真思考是否恢复与俄罗斯的对话。法国率先在技术层面重新建立了与俄罗斯的沟通渠道，其他西欧国家也纷纷有了类似的考虑。然而，这 并不意味着欧盟准备为了乌克兰问题与俄罗斯彻底断绝关系。相反，这正是俄罗斯必须考虑的问题。为了侵占乌东，俄罗斯与欧洲彻底翻脸的后果，长远来 看将利弊失衡。欧洲寻求与俄罗斯重启对话的动机非常明确，主要是由于美国政策的不确定性日益加剧。为了避免在俄乌和谈的进程中被边缘化，欧盟不得 不采取主动防御策略。 去年底，法国总统马克龙公开表示，如果美国主导的和平谈判失败，欧洲就需要重新与普京进行全面对话。这一言论被外界解读为欧洲立场出现松动。然 而，马克龙的表态并非毫无前提，那就是必须达成持久和平。这实际上是欧洲在战略层面上的一种对冲策略。如果美欧之间的跨大西洋伙伴关系出现安全真 空，欧洲自然不会甘愿沦为旁观者，而会主动站出来，扮演棋手的角色。尤其是在特朗普政府急于在乌克兰危机中达成交易，甚至流露出绕过欧洲与俄罗斯 进行绥靖的想法后，欧盟意识到，如果彻底与俄罗斯断绝关系，那就等于将自己的命运交给美俄两国决定。为了避免这种局面，欧盟意识到有必要建立一个 稳定的对话框架，而不是在旁边空谈自我。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and declined, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The potential return of Russia to the US dollar settlement system and the sharp drop in US stocks last night have re - raised concerns about market liquidity. The recent trend of copper prices is somewhat consistent with that of overseas financial markets and precious metals, indicating that the current operating logic still depends on financial attributes and market sentiment. Overall, it is regarded as a fluctuating and slightly bullish market. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but due to the upcoming Spring Festival and strong geopolitical disturbances in the overseas market during the holiday, it is advised to hold a light position during the holiday [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of alumina in the spot market declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots decreased. Affected by the rise in overseas alumina prices and the early raw material winter storage of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina futures price rose against the trend. However, due to large inventory backlogs and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipts cancellation, the upward trend of alumina is difficult to continue. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand from the processing end is weak, and the social inventory begins to accumulate rapidly. Currently, the market risk premium is being withdrawn, and the center and volatility of aluminum prices are decreasing. Be vigilant about the risk pricing related to the uncertain situation between the US and Iran [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 4.51% to $17,250 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 3.74% to 135,070 yuan per ton. The LME inventory increased by 636 tons to 286,386 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts remained at 52,027 tons. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia has shrunk significantly compared with the previous year. There are concerns about tight resource supply in the future, which pushes up the boundary cost support. In terms of demand, affected by the Spring Festival in February, the weekly inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the supply side has many maintenance plans. In the new energy sector, the spot procurement and sales of nickel sulfate are relatively sluggish, and the output of ternary materials is also expected to decline month - on - month. Although the phased demand has weakened month - on - month, the cost support is still solid. Pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line. If the subsequent explicit inventory can be significantly reduced, it may have a positive feedback on the price. Be vigilant about the weakening of market sentiment and hold a light position during the holiday [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price decline, influenced by geopolitical and market liquidity factors, overall bullish with a suggestion of buying on dips and light - position holiday holding [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price decline, affected by supply - demand and inventory factors, with a weakening trend and risk concerns [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price decline, inventory changes, supply - demand situation, cost support, and trading suggestions [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On February 12, 2026, the price of flat - water copper was 102,030 yuan/ton, up 735 yuan from the previous day. The inventory in LME remained unchanged, while the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8,282 tons. The social inventory remained at 40.9 million tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 750 yuan [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,740 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The warehouse receipts in SHFE increased by 6,501 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 17,240 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi quotation was 23,360 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 34,000 tons, and the inventory of alumina decreased by 4,000 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 149,550 yuan/ton, up 2,250 yuan. The inventory of nickel in SHFE increased by 2,061 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2,784 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price was 24,590 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The weekly inventory in SHFE increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price was 393,120 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. The inventory in SHFE decreased by 1,718 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][11][12][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [15][16][18][19][20][21][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][24][25][26][27][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][30][31][32][33][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [42][43][44][45][46][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the award for the best metal industry futures research team by Futures Daily and Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [49]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst in non - ferrous metals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He has won relevant industry awards and provides in - depth research and services for clients [49]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst in non - ferrous metals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research. She has won relevant industry awards and serves many leading enterprises in the new energy industry [50].

【兴证策略|地缘战略】国际政治信息整理0212 特朗普与内塔尼亚胡举行闭门会晤。 特朗普告诉内塔尼亚胡，如果能同伊朗达成协议，"这将是我们的首选"；如果无法达成协议，"我们只能静观其 变"。 特朗普10日称正在考虑派遣第二个航空母舰打击群前往中东，以准备在与伊朗谈判失败时采取军事行动。 委内瑞拉代总统会见美国能源部长。 【兴证策略|地缘战略】国际政治信息整理0212 特朗普与内塔尼亚胡举行闭门会晤。 特朗普告诉内塔尼亚胡，如果能同伊朗达成协议，"这将是我们的首选"；如果无法达成协议，"我们只能静观其 变"。 特朗普10日称正在考虑派遣第二个航空母舰打击群前往中东，以准备在与伊朗谈判失败时采取军事行动。 委内瑞拉代总统会见美国能源部长。 罗德里格斯在会见后对媒体表示，双方讨论了石油、天然气、采矿和电力领域的项目。 美国能源部长赖特称将会晤委内瑞拉石油天然气行业高管，并评估委内瑞拉油气生产状况。 美国向欧盟国家移交部分北约指挥权。 按照新的分工安排，英国、意大利将分别接管目前由美国主导的位于美国弗吉尼亚州的"诺福克联合部队司令 部"和位于意大利的"那不勒斯联合部队司令部"的指挥权。 德国与波兰将以轮换方式负责位于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Amsterdam Enterprise Court upheld a previous decision to suspend the position of Nexperia's Chinese CEO, Zhang Xuezheng, allowing the European interim management team to remain in place and ordering a formal investigation into alleged mismanagement at Nexperia. This ruling has led to strong dissatisfaction from the company's controlling shareholder, China's Wingtech Technology, which aims to restore its full legal control and governance rights over Nexperia [1][2][5]. Group 1: Court Ruling and Reactions - The court's decision did not revoke prior temporary measures against Nexperia, nor did it restore Wingtech's legal control as a shareholder [2][11]. - The court has initiated an investigation that may take over six months, involving the examination of actions by Nexperia's chief legal officer, chief operating officer, and financial officer [2][11]. - Wingtech expressed extreme disappointment and dissatisfaction with the ruling, stating it would pursue all legal avenues to regain control [1][5]. Group 2: Impact on the Semiconductor Industry - The ongoing dispute has disrupted the supply of standardized chips crucial for automotive production, affecting major manufacturers like Honda and Mercedes-Benz, which have had to halt production of certain models [7][15]. - The investigation and court ruling are expected to prolong the struggle for control over Nexperia, exacerbating the existing chip supply crisis in the European automotive sector [7][15]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The situation highlights the geopolitical tensions between Europe and China, with the court's ruling potentially reigniting tensions in their economic relations [8][16]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing control dispute could have broader implications for global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which is vital for various industries [8][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report presents a cautious view on the energy and chemical industries, with many commodities having a "cautious" or "bearish" outlook [5]. 2. Core Views - The geopolitical impact on oil prices is weakening, and prices are returning to fundamental pricing. Most energy and chemical commodities are facing various challenges such as oversupply, seasonal demand weakness, and high inventory [1][2][3]. - Some commodities like PX/PTA have a positive outlook in terms of future demand and valuation, while others like LPG, L, PP, etc., are expected to face downward pressure or remain in a weak - balanced state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Geopolitical uncertainty remains high, and the supply - demand imbalance persists with oversupply and a coming demand淡季 [1]. - **Price Data**: WTI主力 at $62.84/barrel (-2.77%), Brent主力 at $67.52/barrel (-2.71%), SC主力 at 481 yuan/barrel (+1.07%) [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: IEA expects 2026 global oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (down 0.1 million from last month), and demand to grow by 0.85 million barrels per day (up from last month). US crude and product inventories are increasing [11]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the supply - demand situation will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments. SC is recommended to be watched in the range of [450 - 460] [12]. LPG - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. It lacks short - term drivers and follows oil price fluctuations. Cost support is weakening, and inventory is rising [1]. - **Price Data**: PG2603 at 4295 yuan/ton (+0.75%), PG2604 at 4564 yuan/ton (-0.09%), PG2605 at 4476 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [13]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply and demand are both increasing, but the inventory is bearish with rising port inventory [1]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price is expected to decline due to oversupply of upstream crude oil. In the short - term, due to oil price uncertainty, the fundamental is bearish. PG is recommended to be watched in the range of [4200 - 4300] [16]. L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. The cost of crude oil is falling, and the basis is weak. Supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to be cautious during the holiday [1]. - **Price Data**: L05 (主力) at 6734 yuan/ton (-0.8%) [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: Linear production is at a high level, and supply is expected to continue to increase with the restart of some devices [20]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation during the holiday, and pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand verification. L is recommended to be watched in the range of [6650 - 6800] [20]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. There is a lack of supply - demand drivers before the holiday, and the supply pressure has eased with a certain cost support [1]. - **Price Data**: PP05 (主力) at 6648 yuan/ton (-0.7%) [22]. - **Supply - Demand**: The current supply - demand is weak, and the parking ratio is 17.5%. PDH profit is low, providing cost support [24]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation during the holiday, and pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand verification. PP is recommended to be watched in the range of [6550 - 6700] [24]. PVC - **Core View**: Range - bound. The cost support is weakening, and high inventory restricts the upside. It is expected to fluctuate before the holiday [1]. - **Price Data**: V05 (主力) at 4938 yuan/ton (-1.0%) [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: Short - term export rush continues, but high inventory is difficult to reverse [28]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation, and PVC is recommended to be watched in the range of [4850 - 5000] [28]. PX/PTA - **Core View**: Bullish. Valuation is relatively reasonable, and the future outlook is positive despite short - term seasonal demand weakness [2]. - **Price Data**: TA05 at 5166 (at the 85.7% percentile in the past 3 months) [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is affected by device maintenance, and demand is seasonally weak with some inventory accumulation in January - February [30]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental outlook is positive. Pay attention to capital actions, and consider buying on significant pullbacks for TA05 in the range of [5168 - 5268] [31]. MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Valuation is low, and the short - term demand is weak, but the situation is expected to improve in March - April [2]. - **Price Data**: EG05 at 3959 yuan/ton [32]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weak with inventory accumulation in January - February [33]. - **Strategy**: The price is bottom - grinding, and long positions can be considered on dips for EG05 in the range of [3690 - 3760] [34]. Methanol - **Core View**: Short - term bearish. The de - stocking slope is slowing, and the fundamental is slightly loose [3]. - **Price Data**: Methanol主力 at a high valuation (73% in the past 3 months), comprehensive profit at - 250.9 yuan/ton [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic supply is at a high level, and overseas supply is expected to increase. Demand has stopped falling [37]. - **Strategy**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Long positions can be held for MA05 in the range of [2225 - 2255] [39]. Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously avoid chasing long. Valuation is not low, and the short - term demand is weakening [4]. - **Price Data**: URO5 at 1777 yuan/ton, URO9 at 1754 yuan/ton, URO1 at 1690 yuan/ton [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is under pressure with high production, and demand is entering a holiday off - season [41][42]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing long. UR05 is recommended to be watched in the range of [1790 - 1820] [43]. LNG - **Core View**: Range - bound. The impact of the cold wave is weakening, and exports are increasing [7]. - **Price Data**: NG主力 at $3.234/million British thermal units (+2.24%) [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: US export decreased in January, and the rig count increased. Japanese import decreased in 2025 [46]. - **Strategy**: The demand support is weakening as the cold wave fades. NG is recommended to be watched in the range of [2.900 - 3.400] [47]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. The demand is in the off - season, and the valuation is high [7]. - **Price Data**: BU2603 (主力) at 3327 yuan/ton (-0.92%) [48]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is decreasing in February, and inventory is increasing [50]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. Be aware of geopolitical risks. BU is recommended to be watched in the range of [3200 - 3300] [51]. Glass - **Core View**: Low - level oscillation. The daily melting volume is declining, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance [7]. - **Price Data**: FG05 (主力) at 1065 yuan/ton (-0.6%) [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: Demand is in the off - season, and high inventory needs further supply reduction [55]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about short - selling. FG is recommended to be watched in the range of [1040 - 1090] [55]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. The enterprise inventory is increasing, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - **Price Data**: SA05 (主力) at 1162 yuan/ton (-1.4%) [57]. - **Supply - Demand**: Floating glass demand is falling, and new production capacity is added. Supply is under pressure [59]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies before further intensification of maintenance. SA is recommended to be watched in the range of [1150 - 1200] [59].

Oil Market - On Thursday, oil prices fell significantly, with WTI March contract closing down by $1.79 to $62.84 per barrel, a decrease of 2.77%. Brent April contract closed down by $1.88 to $67.52 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71% [2][12] - The IEA's latest monthly oil market report indicates that global oil demand growth will be slower than expected this year, predicting a large supply surplus despite supply disruptions in January. By 2026, a surplus of 3.73 million barrels per day is expected, which is about 4% of global demand [2][12][14] - U.S. President Trump stated that Iran must reach an agreement with the U.S., or else the U.S. will have to enter a "second phase," which would be very painful for Iran. Geopolitical uncertainties are expected to cause significant fluctuations in oil prices as the Spring Festival approaches [2][14] Fuel Oil - On Thursday, the main contract for fuel oil FU2605 rose by 1.09% to 2888 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 increased by 0.45% to 3349 yuan/ton. Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory recorded 22.7 million barrels, a decrease of 1.499 million barrels (6.19%) from the previous week [15] - Despite strong demand for marine fuel ahead of the Spring Festival, short-term supply is ample, and the market expects an increase in arbitrage shipments from Western markets in February, putting pressure on the low-sulfur market structure [15] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2603 fell by 0.24% to 3327 yuan/ton. The sample shipment volume from 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers totaled 257,000 tons, a decrease of 23.1% week-on-week [16] - The overall supply remains stable, with a significant increase in port inventory for diluted asphalt. The market is expected to show weak supply and demand dynamics as the Spring Festival approaches [16] Rubber - The main contract for Shanghai rubber RU2605 fell by 125 yuan/ton to 16450 yuan/ton. The NR main contract decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 13370 yuan/ton, and BR main contract dropped by 305 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton [17] - The basic supply and demand dynamics are weak, with port inventory slightly increasing. The rubber price is expected to maintain a volatile trend as the Spring Festival approaches [17] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5220 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. EG2605 closed at 3723 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. PX futures closed at 7312 yuan/ton, down 0.89% [18][19] - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China is at 76.81%, with a slight increase. The PTA load is at 74.8% due to a shutdown of a 2.5 million ton PTA unit [18][19] Methanol - On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2210 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $261 to $265 per ton. Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is supported by the gradual increase in MTO unit load [20][21] - The decrease in Iranian shipments is expected to lead to a decline in arrivals in February, providing price support [20][21] Polyolefins - The main price for East China PP was between 6520-6700 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported. The market is expected to face upward pressure as downstream factories begin to shut down for the Spring Festival [21] PVC - The PVC market in East China remained stable, with prices for different grades reported. Demand is slowing down as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a high supply level but weak demand [22] Urea - Urea futures prices rose by 2.79% to 1843 yuan/ton. The market is experiencing a decline in activity as the Spring Festival approaches, with supply levels remaining stable [23][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices fell by 0.94% to 1162 yuan/ton, with supply expected to remain high during the Spring Festival. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to face downward pressure [24] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a weak trend, closing at 1065 yuan/ton, with supply levels slightly decreasing. Demand is expected to decline during the Spring Festival, leading to a challenging market environment [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market continues to oscillate, with the market awaiting the clarification of geopolitical situations. The IEA predicts a supply surplus of over 370,000 barrels per day in the global crude oil market in 2026 [2]. - The weekly production of the chemical industry generally increased in the week approaching the Spring Festival, and the weekly operating rate of Chinese refineries also showed an upward trend. The probability of significant market fluctuations before the festival is low. It is recommended that investors hold light positions during the holiday [2]. - Overall, coal prices are stabilizing, while crude oil and chemical prices continue to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and risks remain high around the holiday. The fundamentals of the current crude oil market are not optimistic, with high inventory levels. Geopolitical factors dominate the price fluctuations, and the market risks are relatively large during the Spring Festival. The short - term outlook is for oscillation [7]. - **Asphalt**: The tight supply of raw materials is gradually easing, and the futures price is oscillating. The long - term valuation of asphalt is expected to decline as the supply of heavy oil is expected to be abundant in the future, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price still has a relatively high geopolitical premium. The long - term supply increase of heavy oil will put pressure on the price, and the short - term focus is on the progress of the US - Iran negotiations [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the upward oscillation of crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors, its current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate with crude oil [10]. - **PX**: The demand support before the festival is insufficient. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased, and the price has回调 in the short term. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **PTA**: The cost support is insufficient, and the price is in a range - bound consolidation. The seasonal inventory accumulation pressure is large, but the processing fee still has some support in the short term [12]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price oscillation is mainly affected by crude oil prices and market sentiment. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the short term, and the market has a large divergence in the Q2 fundamentals [13]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has become marginally looser. The upward momentum has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The import volume in the second quarter has been revised downwards, and there is a weak repair expectation for supply - demand. The price has limited downside [17]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the trading is light. The price will follow the movement of upstream products [21]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The volatility has narrowed, and the trading atmosphere has declined. The price will follow the cost fluctuations [22]. - **Methanol**: The coastal trading has been suspended before the festival, and the inventory discharge in the inland is coming to an end. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate [23]. - **Urea**: The pre - festival orders are coming to an end, and the sustainability of sentiment boost may be limited. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand has the expectation of a peak season after the Spring Festival [25]. - **LLDPE**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the long holiday. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the focus is on the return of demand after the festival [27]. - **PP**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the festival. It is advisable to hold light positions. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [28]. - **PL**: Supported by the spot market, it oscillates. The supply increase is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season has limited support [29]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it oscillates. The market sentiment has weakened, and the support from "export rush" has diminished [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: The comprehensive profit is poor, and it weakly stabilizes. The chlorine - alkali profit is poor, but the futures price has a high premium, and it is expected to oscillate before the festival [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different varieties are given, such as the spreads between PP and 3MA, TA and EG, etc., along with their changes [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the catalog mentions monitoring for multiple varieties, no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, featured index, and plate index are presented. The comprehensive index shows an upward trend, with the energy index having a daily increase of 1.19%, a 5 - day increase of 2.79%, a 1 - month increase of 4.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.50% [276][277].