Market Overview - On July 15, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance at 3527 points and closing at 3505.00 points, down 0.42%[3][8] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,744.56 points, up 0.56%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.73%[8][9] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 16,353 billion yuan, above the three-year average daily trading volume[4][14] Sector Performance - Internet services, computer equipment, automotive, and communication equipment sectors performed well, while electricity, coal, mining, and photovoltaic equipment sectors lagged[4][8] - Over 70% of stocks in the two markets declined, with significant inflows into internet services, gaming, software development, and automotive sectors[8][10] Valuation and Economic Indicators - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.46 times and 39.17 times, respectively, indicating a mid-level valuation over the past three years[4][14] - June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%[4][14] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on stocks with strong mid-year performance and reasonable valuations[4][14] - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in internet services, software development, automotive, and communication equipment sectors[4][14] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances[5]

A股市场延续强势，上证指数3500点上方震荡，但个股分化显著，短线操作难度剧增，而银行股不断创 新高，凸显资金向权重资产集中的趋势。与此同时，央行发布的6月社融数据大超预期(社融增速8.9%、 M1增速4.6%、M2增速8.3%)，叠加今日即将公布的6月工业增加值等经济数据，若继续改善，有望进一 步提振市场信心。在这一背景下，易方达沪深300ETF联接基金(A类110020；C类007339)作为紧密跟踪 A股核心宽基指数的工具，凭借其低费率、高股息、运作透明高效及一键配置优势，是投资者把握经济 复苏红利的理性选择。在指数投资领域，易方达基金管理公司经验已超21年，且资产管理总规模处于行 业前列，产品线齐全，后续将为产品运行保驾护航。(数据来源：Wind，截至于2025年7月14日) 易方达沪深300ETF联接基金紧密跟踪沪深300指数，该指数作为A股市场的核心宽基指数，覆盖沪深两 市300家市值大、流动性强的代表性企业，涵盖金融、消费、科技、工业等核心行业，市场代表性与行 业均衡性显著。截至7月14日，沪深300指数的市盈率仅为13.33倍，股息率接近3.17%，兼具"高股息+低 估值"双重优势，投资价值凸 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data shows signs of recovery, which may pose challenges for market trends [2] - A significant increase in export data was reported, with June exports growing by 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing May's growth rate [2] - The trade surplus reached its second-highest historical level, indicating strong competitiveness of Chinese products in the global market [2] - The automotive parts sector maintained a growth rate of over 20%, reflecting robust demand [2] - The Central Bank reported that new loans in June reached 2.5 trillion yuan, and social financing increased by over 4.2 trillion yuan, both exceeding expectations [2] - The market anticipates a GDP growth rate of 5.2% to 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a strong performance and ample room for maneuver in the second half [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, in the short - term, the stock index discount has returned to an extreme level. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to go long on the economy, and it is advisable to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties at low prices [1]. - For treasury bond futures, as there are signs of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts at high prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - **Market Performance**: On July 11, A - share four major stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3510.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 10696.1 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.8% to 2207.1 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.48% to 994.45 points. Market turnover was 1736.6 billion yuan, an increase of 221.5 billion yuan from the previous day. Non - bank finance, computer, and steel sectors led the gains, while bank, building materials, and coal sectors led the losses. In terms of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 2959, 252, and 2204 respectively. Net capital inflows of institutions, main players, large - scale investors, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 6 billion, - 134 billion, - 68 billion, and 209 billion yuan respectively, with changes of + 55 billion, + 16 billion, - 59 billion, and - 12 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Basis Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 72.3, 53.68, 14.81, and 5.77 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 10.76%, - 8.56%, - 3.55%, and - 2.01% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 31%, 19%, 27%, and 33% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the stock index discount has returned to an extreme level. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties at low prices [1]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the yields of treasury bond futures all rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.366, up 0.4 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.503, up 0.72 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.603, up 0.6 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.928, up 0.18 bps [1]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the two - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of + 0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.024, and an IRR of 1.6%; for the five - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of + 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.042, and an IRR of 1.69%; for the ten - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220010.IB, with a yield change of + 1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.068, and an IRR of 1.84%; for the thirty - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of + 0.2 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.085, and an IRR of 1.8% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 84.7 billion yuan and withdrew 34 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 50.7 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: As there are signs of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts at high prices [1]. (3) Economic Data - **High - Frequency Data**: High - frequency data shows that the real - estate market sentiment has recently contracted, while the other four indicators are similar to the same period [8].

KVB官网发现周四，特朗普一系列新的关税警告如石沉大海，并未如 4 月宣布 "对等关税" 时那般在市场中掀起惊 涛骇浪。当日，标普 500 和纳斯达克指数收盘时仍强势上扬，双双创下新高。科技巨头英伟达表现格外亮眼，收盘 市值首次突破 4 万亿美元大关，展现出强大的市场影响力。与此同时，比特币价格也一路飙升，创下历史新高，似 乎全然不受关税政策的阴霾笼罩。 汇丰策略师马克斯・凯特纳（Max Kettner）带领的团队表示，风险资产有望持续获得支撑，二季度财报季和市场 对关税敏感度的降低将成为关键催化剂。"除投资者仓位仍具支撑外，我们认为市场对二季度财报季的悲观预期被 夸大。美元走弱、公司盈利指引改善及低预期足以带来正面意外。在本周再度宣布关税措施后，任何降息举措也可 能被市场解读为利好。" 投资者正紧锣密鼓地为即将到来的第二季度财报季做准备，密切关注特朗普 4 月 2 日启动的关税战对企业盈利的潜 在影响。Granite Wealth Management 董事总经理布鲁斯・扎罗（Bruce Zaro）表示："分析师对标普 500 公司普遍持 怀疑态度，纷纷下调预期，主要基于关税及其带来的不确定性。但我们认为， ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48% on July 10, reaching a 9-month high, with real estate stocks experiencing a surge and banks, brokerages, and rare earths showing significant gains [1] - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.7%, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index at 50.5%, and the Composite PMI Output Index at 50.7%, indicating a recovery in all three indices, with the manufacturing PMI and composite PMI rising for two consecutive months [1] - The improvement in manufacturing sentiment suggests a continued expansion in economic activity, supported by various growth-stabilizing policies, which are expected to enhance the internal driving force of economic operations [1] Group 2 - The continuous rise in PMI over two months indicates a recovery in corporate credit demand and a peak decline in non-performing loan rates, which is expected to improve the fundamentals of the banking sector [1] - Banks are direct beneficiaries of real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with specific measures like the "guarantee delivery" loans and the whitelist for property companies easing real estate risks [1] - As real estate stocks surged, banks also performed well, with expectations that if the Shanghai Index breaks through 3500 points, it could further boost market sentiment and attract more capital [1] Group 3 - In July, the market is entering the earnings disclosure period, and with recent performance trends, funds are likely to focus on identifying investment opportunities around earnings [2] - The Bank ETF (515020) increased by 1.21%, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190), which has the highest bank exposure, rose over 3% with a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A-share market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The index fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the corporate profit situation in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared to 2024, and there is support from allocation funds, the index is difficult to break through the central level and rise significantly due to credit contraction and insufficient demand under the background of debt resolution. On the other hand, it will not experience a sharp decline in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in an environment with loose funds, stable economy, and low short-term interest rate cut expectations. With insufficient upward and downward momentum, it is expected to continue the fluctuating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On July 9, 2025, the A-share market fluctuated and closed down. The Wind All A index fell 0.18% with a trading volume of 1.53 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also declined. The media sector led the rise, while the non-ferrous metals sector corrected. The recent Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the construction of a unified national market, but the impact on related themes depends on the transfer mode and scale of central fiscal incremental policies. Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slowed down, and the boost to domestic small-cap indices has weakened. The fundamentals of the index depend on the domestic economic recovery process, and it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 9, 2025, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. The net withdrawal of funds was 230 billion yuan. The overall capital situation was loose, and the price index remained stable. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 9, 2025, compared with the previous day, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with declines of -0.14%, -0.15%, -0.47%, and -0.35% respectively [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices also declined, with declines of -0.26%, -0.18%, -0.41%, and -0.27% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all rose, with increases of 0.00%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.14% respectively [3]. 3.3 Market News - From 2021 to 2024, China's economy maintained an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth was 86.4%, and the average contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth reached 56.2%, 8.6 percentage points higher than that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trend charts of the main contracts and the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trend charts of the main contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the trend charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of other currency pairs [20][21][22]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】本周Mysteel统计全国110家洗煤厂样本：开 工率62.33%较上期增2.60%；日均产量52.59万吨增2.00万吨； 原煤库存300.77万吨减11.40万吨；精煤库存197.07万吨减 17.91万吨。评：近日炼焦煤市场稳中偏强运行，价格多数有所 上涨，煤矿成交情况也较好，多数煤矿已经出现预售情况，多 数煤矿端库存已经不存在压力，煤矿挺价意愿较强。终端补库 带动了投机氛围，对市场情绪有一定提振作用，但产地端煤矿 处于复产节奏当中，后续重点关注煤矿产量以及下游焦钢企业 盈利情况，预计短期炼焦煤价格稳中偏强运行。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布致8 个国家领导人有关加征关税的信函。其中，巴西将被征收50%的 关税，利比亚、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚和斯里兰卡将被征收30%的 关税，文莱和摩尔多瓦的税率是25%，菲律宾的税率是20%。新 税率将从8月1日起生效。此前，特朗普已向日本、韩国等14个 国家发出了首批关税信函，关税税率从25%到40%不等。他同时 预告本周还会有更多此类信函发出。评：虽然各国对关税均有 所表态，但是关税扰动减弱，市场关注度有所降 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed stability in the morning, with all three major indices in the green, and the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the psychological level of 3500 points, indicating potential for increased capital inflow [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also performed well, particularly the ChiNext Index, which rose over 0.8%, suggesting high activity in growth stocks [2] - Trading volume was robust, nearing 1 trillion yuan in half a day, indicating active market participation and a positive profit effect with over 2000 stocks rising [2] Sector Performance - **Banking Sector**: Major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, and Agricultural Bank reached new highs, driven by a low interest rate environment that attracts long-term capital due to high dividends and stable returns. The improving asset quality and economic recovery expectations support the valuation recovery logic [2] - **Short Drama Game Sector**: Stocks like Huayi Brothers surged, likely influenced by recent Shanghai policies supporting the digital content industry, although this sector is characterized by high volatility and speculative trading [3] - **Innovative Drug Sector**: Stocks such as Purui Pharmaceutical saw significant gains, supported by national policies promoting innovative drug development, indicating long-term growth potential despite short-term volatility [3] - **Storage Chip Sector**: This sector faced a collective downturn, with companies like Fang Technology dropping over 9%, attributed to falling prices and weak consumer demand. However, long-term demand is expected to rise with advancements in AI and data centers, presenting a potential investment opportunity [3] - **Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Sector**: Companies like Jiuling Technology experienced declines, influenced by policy and market sentiment. Despite recent corrections, rare earths remain valuable as strategic resources [4] - **Shipbuilding and Nonferrous Metals Sectors**: Both sectors underperformed, with the shipbuilding sector affected by market sentiment and the nonferrous metals sector pressured by falling international commodity prices [5] Investment Strategy - The market is characterized by structural trends with both gains and losses across sectors, necessitating a steady investment approach. Long-term investors are encouraged to focus on sectors with sustainable growth logic, such as banking and innovative drugs, while being cautious with more volatile sectors like short drama games and storage chips [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicates that the inflation rate may rise to the upper limit of the 1%-3% target range by mid-2025 [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Global policy uncertainty is increasing, and tariffs are expected to reduce global economic growth [1] - This may slow down the economic recovery in New Zealand and alleviate inflationary pressures [1]