2025 年 05 月 15 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》点评——攻守 之势迎转折，建议红利底仓叠加出口链弹性 资产配置报告 最近一年走势 相关报告 《资产配置报告：国新办发布会点评——资本市场 迎来多重利好*林加力》——2025-05-08 《4 月资金流向月报：价值型资金或仍为主要定价 力量*徐凝碧，林加力》——2025-05-07 《资产配置报告：社融总量超预期，信贷结构显现 积极变化*林加力，徐凝碧》——2025-04-17 事件: 5 月 12 日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称"联合声明"）发 布，双方承诺将于 2025 年 5 月 14 日前采取以下举措：美国将（一）修 改 2025 年 4 月 2 日对中国商品加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初 始的 90 天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余 10%的关税；（二）取消 2025 年 4 月 8 日和 4 月 9 日的加征关税。中国 将（一）相应修改对美国商品加征 ...

金融衍生品研究所 基本面分析报告 金融衍生品日报 2025 年 05 月 13 日 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号： F0211891 投资咨询从业证号： Z000567 ：021-65789277 ：sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn 研究员：彭烜 期货从业证号： F3035416 投资咨询从业证号： Z0015142 ：pengxuan_qh@chinastock.com.cn 研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号： F3053225 投资咨询从业证号： Z0015885 ：shenchen_qh@chinastock.com.cn 金融衍生品日报 一、财经要闻 1. 习近平在中拉论坛第四届部长级会议开幕式的主旨讲话中提出，当前，世界百年变 局加速演进，多重风险交织叠加，各国唯有团结协作，才能维护世界和平稳定，促进全球发 展繁荣。关税战、贸易战没有赢家，霸凌霸道只会孤立自身。 2. 数据显示，今日南向资金净流入 22.61 亿元。 3. 央行公告称，5 月 13 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1800 亿元 7 天期逆回购操 作，操作利率 1.40%。数据显示，当日 4050 亿元逆回购到期 ...

Core Points - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in the cancellation of 91% of tariffs by both sides, with a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days [1][10] - The economic implications of the trade relationship are significant for both countries and global economic stability [1] - The average tariff rate on Chinese goods exported to the US is now approximately 30% after the tariff reductions [1] Group 1: Trade Impact - The trade talks have led to a surge in the Chinese stock market and a positive response from economists, indicating a better-than-expected outcome [1][4] - Many Chinese traders are eager to capitalize on the 90-day tariff suspension, with increased production and shipping activities anticipated [4][5] - The logistics sector is experiencing heightened activity as companies rush to adjust pricing and shipping arrangements [5][9] Group 2: Business Sentiment - Business owners expressed relief and optimism following the trade talks, with some indicating a willingness to resume orders despite previous uncertainties [4][23] - The sentiment among traders reflects a cautious optimism, as they prepare for potential future changes in trade policy [10][23] - The trade environment has forced many businesses to reconsider their strategies, with some exploring alternative markets and production locations [12][19] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The trade dynamics have prompted discussions about the sustainability of the current global trade order, with potential shifts towards decoupling or increased cooperation [2][10] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policies continues to pose challenges for businesses, necessitating contingency planning [10][21] - The resilience of Chinese manufacturing and its integrated supply chains remains a competitive advantage, despite the pressures from shifting trade policies [13][14]

Market Overview - On May 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.15%. The STAR Market 50 fell by 0.15%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.12%. The Hang Seng Index saw a decline of 1.87% [4][6] - The best-performing sectors on May 13 included banking (+1.52%), beauty and personal care (+1.18%), pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (+0.9%), transportation (+0.72%), and coal (+0.62%). The worst-performing sectors were defense and military (-3.07%), computers (-0.8%), machinery (-0.66%), electronics (-0.64%), and telecommunications (-0.61%) [4][6] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on May 13 was 13,260.2 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.261 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][6] Key Recommendations - The report highlights TCL Smart Home (002668) as a leading player in the refrigerator ODM export market, expected to benefit from the continued export boom in the refrigerator industry. The company is projected to experience rapid growth in 2024 due to the export wave, although growth may slow in 2025 due to factors such as completed overseas inventory replenishment and tariff pressures [7][8] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year increase of 11.8% in China's refrigerator export volume and a 11.3% increase in export value. Specifically, exports to Europe rose by 7%, while exports to Latin America surged by 43% [8] - Revenue forecasts for TCL Smart Home from 2025 to 2027 are 20,404.24 million yuan, 22,343.55 million yuan, and 24,108.32 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 1,147.24 million yuan, 1,272.94 million yuan, and 1,389.93 million yuan. The projected growth rates for revenue are 11.13%, 9.50%, and 7.90%, while net profit growth rates are 12.56%, 10.96%, and 9.19% [8] Important Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that the peak of China-US trade friction has been reached, with overall tariffs expected to stabilize around 30%. The additional tariffs imposed by the US on China are projected to decrease from 145% to 30% within the next 90 days [10][11] - The strategy research suggests that the public fund industry is likely to enter a more mature development phase, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets and encouraging long-term capital allocation to A-shares. This shift is expected to improve both property income and consumer demand, thereby supporting a positive cycle in the domestic economy [12]

涤纶长丝市场近况交流 20250513 摘要 • 中美贸易摩擦对涤纶长丝直接出口影响小（占比 1.67%），但对整体纺织 品服装出口影响大（美国占中国总出口 11%，中国占美国进口 33%）， 南亚东南亚国家难以完全承接中国订单，美国或接受高价继续采购。 • 2025 年一季度中国纺织品服装出口增速 1%，低于孟加拉（6.4%）、越 南（11.1%）等国，但美国库存偏低，中国仍有机会通过提升产品附加值 保持竞争力。 • 2025 年全球主要经济体原油库存低位，海外成品库存也较低，一季度美 国、欧盟库存增速分别为 18.9%、24.7%，若油价维持低位缓步抬升，中 国纺织品服装直接出口将受益，一季度化纤机织物出口同比增速达 16%。 • 2025 年中国纺织品服装出口金额表现较弱，因成品端出口单价下降显著， 如化纤梭织物服装单价下降 10.9%，导致涤纶长丝、中端纺织品、服装出 口金额失速。4 月原料价格下跌，中端主动去库存。 • 目前涤纶长丝类坯布库存 33 天，高于五年均值 30 天，但 4 月底到 5 月初 订单环比抬升。终端 DTY 工厂和纱厂已开始去库存，DTY 大厂库存从 33 天降至 23 天，P ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is 开润股份 (Kairun Co.), which operates in the bag and apparel manufacturing industry, focusing on export markets, particularly the United States. Core Insights and Arguments - **Production Capacity in Indonesia**: Kairun has effectively shifted production capacity to Indonesia, mitigating tariff risks from US-China trade tensions, with 60%-65% of bag production and nearly 80% of apparel production based in Indonesia [2][4][7]. - **FOB Cooperation Model**: The company employs a Free on Board (FOB) model, transferring logistics and tariff costs to clients, which alleviates cost pressures and ensures stable supply to the US market [2][4][7]. - **Stability in Client Orders**: The easing of US-China trade negotiations, including tariff suspensions and phase agreements, has stabilized market sentiment, resulting in no significant fluctuations in client orders [2][3][5][9]. - **Demand Resilience**: Despite potential impacts from high tariffs, the phase agreements and protections for essential industries like textiles support ongoing demand for apparel and bags in the US market [2][8]. - **Competitive Advantage of Indonesia**: Major clients like Adidas and Nike are relocating production to Southeast Asia, with Indonesia being favored due to its lower labor costs and favorable economic relations with both the US and China [2][12]. - **Production Efficiency Challenges**: The apparel segment faces lower production efficiency due to insufficient scale of new client orders. The company plans to enhance efficiency by streamlining SKUs and improving supply chain effectiveness [2][16][17][18]. Additional Important Content - **Order Certainty**: The company can ensure order certainty at least until the end of Q3, with clients already forecasting Q4 orders, indicating a high level of overall order certainty for the year [3][10][11]. - **Impact of Trade Negotiations**: Recent trade negotiations have positively influenced client feedback and order stability, with most major clients maintaining consistent purchasing behavior despite some minor fluctuations from smaller clients [9][10]. - **Production Line Efficiency Goals**: The company aims to increase production efficiency in Indonesia from 50% to at least 70%-80% over the next two to three years through various operational improvements [16][19]. - **Market Dynamics**: The Southeast Asian region has initiated a 90-day tariff exemption, which is expected to benefit the textile industry, particularly in Indonesia, by maintaining competitive tariff rates compared to other Southeast Asian countries [13]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic responses to market challenges and its operational focus moving forward.

关税冲击影响跟踪：宏观与消费 20250513 摘要 • 中美贸易摩擦缓和预期提升风险偏好，利好中国市场，但 30%关税仍是重 要影响。中国资本市场有望相对美国表现更好，短期内贸易摩擦调整较多 的板块或反弹，科技加红利仍是看好的主线。 • 预计全年中国对美出口仍将保持正增长，即使美国加征 30%的关税，对美 出口下降 25 个百分点，对整体出口影响为 3.6 个百分点，对 GDP 影响大 约是 0.5 个百分点。 • 政策应对方面，应重点落实存量政策，通过政策性金融工具应对短期冲击， 预计规模在 8,000 亿到 1 万亿左右，而非增发国债或调整赤字率。 • 中国消费产业链具备国际竞争力，在中美贸易摩擦中表现出强韧性。建议 关注国际化能力优秀且海外产能布局丰富的消费行业龙头，如美的、海尔、 海信家电和 TCL 电子。 • 医药行业大部分药品获得关税豁免，但医疗设备加征 145%关税导致对美 出口基本停滞。创新药板块表现强势，医疗设备及耗材类公司股价表现弱 势。关注美国 CPI 上升及特朗普政策对医药行业的影响。 Q&A 目前中国面临的关税情况如何？ 目前，中国面临的关税包括 20%的芬太尼关税、10%的对等关 ...

文|五月 编辑|五月 前言 前言 2025年5月， 中美两国代表团在日内瓦展开了为期两天的谈判。 外界普遍对这场谈判的结果不抱太大希望，尤其是在特朗普政府坚持不降低关税的情况下。 随着会谈的深入，美国在态度上发生了明显变化，尤其是在关税政策上的软化。 这场谈判不仅凸显了美方的急切需求，也揭示了美国在经济和法律方面的巨大压力。 这场关键的对话能否为紧张的中美关系带来新的转机？ 中美日内瓦谈判 2025年5月，日内瓦的中美谈判备受关注。在谈判开始之前，外界普遍对双方能否达成共识持悲观态度。 特朗普总统曾在多个场合表示， 不会为了重新启动谈判而降低对华关税，并且强调关税政策是美国维护国家利益的一部分。 与此同时，中方的态度也十分坚决，外交部发言人林剑回应称： "谈可以谈，要打我们也奉陪到底。" 这一强硬的立场让外界认为，中美之间的对话或许难以取得实质性进展。 随着谈判的进行，局面开始出现转机。美方代表贝森特在最初几轮会谈后表示， 虽然没有太大期望能够达成协议，但至少希望通过此次对话实现一定的"降 温"。 特朗普在会谈结束后通过社交媒体表达了对谈判结果的积极看法，称这是一次非常成功的会面，双方取得了"良好的进展"。 ...

据环球时报报道，美国总统特朗普对华加税145%，并对中国船舶下手，导致美国消费者处境艰难。美国有线电视新闻网 （CNN）称，特朗普宣布所谓"对等关税"后，美国来自中国的进口量急剧下降。多名业内人士警告说，几周后，美国消 费者将面临价格上涨和某些商品短缺的局面。塞罗卡说，许多美国进口商取消了之前的订单，因为他们不愿支付高额关 税，这些关税可能导致中国商品价格上涨一倍以上。据他透露，洛杉矶港原本预计5月份将有80艘船只抵达，但其中20% 已被取消。截至目前，客户已经取消了6月份的13个航次。 特朗普（资料图） 中美贸易关系未来走势存在诸多不确定性。短期内，贸易数据可能继续波动。长期来看，两国经济相互依存的局面难以 改变，但贸易摩擦可能持续存在。顺差减少不仅仅是数字下降，更反映出中国经济结构调整的挑战。中国需要提升产业 竞争力，降低对出口的依赖。中美贸易摩擦对全球经济增长的负面影响日益显现。 对中国而言，这既是挑战也是机遇， 需要加快技术创新，提升产业竞争力。 对于中美两国即将在瑞士举行的高层经贸会谈，多家外国媒体持续关注。英国广播公司的报道称，随着世界两大经济体 即将在瑞士开始会谈，中美贸易战可能正在缓和。《财富 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期偏强震荡 [2][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观致价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 铝锭 -昨日铝价偏强震荡，因中美贸易摩擦担忧缓和，投资者信心修复，铝需求预期提振 [3] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率环比涨0.3个百分点至61.9%，各板块开工分化，铝板带开工率降0.4个百分点，铝线缆开工率升1.4个百分点，型材开工率降1.5个百分点 [4] -5月12日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存60.1万吨，较上周四降1.9万吨，较5月6日降3.5万吨，预计本周四有望跌破60万吨 [4] 后期关注因素 -成材关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝锭关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [5]