Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) reports that gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest official reserve asset globally, accounting for approximately 20% of total official reserves by the end of 2024, compared to the euro's 16% [1] - The increase in gold's share is driven by significant gold purchases by central banks and record-high gold prices, with central banks buying over 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024, which is double the average level of the 2010s [3][4] - Gold prices have surged nearly 62% since the beginning of 2024, reaching a historical high of over $3,500 per ounce in mid-April, surpassing the peak during the 1979 oil crisis when adjusted for inflation [3] Group 2 - Approximately two-thirds of central bank gold purchases are for asset diversification, while about 40% are to hedge against geopolitical risks, with demand for gold rising sharply since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [3] - The total amount of gold held by global central banks is projected to be around 36,000 tons by the end of 2024, nearing the historical high of 38,000 tons set in 1965 [4] - Despite the increase in gold holdings, the US dollar remains the dominant global reserve asset, accounting for 46% of total reserves in 2024, while the euro's share in global foreign exchange reserves remains stable at 20% [3][5] Group 3 - The ECB notes a break in the historical correlation where gold becomes cheaper when the real yields of other assets rise, as investors increasingly view gold as a tool for hedging political risks rather than inflation [5] - The euro's international role remains stable, with a significant increase in euro-denominated bond and loan issuance, growing over 40% to approximately $900 billion, with bonds making up two-thirds of this issuance [5]

| Milli | 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | 黄金 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | ★鸟称谈论乌俄第三轮谈判的任何准备工作仍为时过早。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩:呼吁俄乌立即无条件停 火，持续至少30天。俄驻美大使：俄美新一轮会谈将于近期在莫斯科举行。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 隔夜贵金属震荡。近期市场风险偏好修复给金价带来一定压力，但白银受益于商品的反弹向上突破刷新2012 年以 ...

Group 1: Global Sovereign Debt Outlook - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the global sovereign debt outlook for 2025 from "neutral" to "deteriorating" due to escalating global trade wars and extreme policy uncertainty [1] - The global GDP growth rate is expected to slow from 2.9% in 2024 to 2% in 2025, driven by significant adverse global economic shocks [1] - The report highlights a vicious cycle of uncertainty affecting global trade volumes, supply chains, and investment environments, which may create a more complex market environment than the trade tensions of 2018 [1] Group 2: Oil Market Impact - Fitch predicts that Brent crude oil prices will decline from $79.5 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025, putting significant pressure on major oil-exporting countries' economies and finances [2] Group 3: Emerging Markets Risks - The reduction of U.S. international aid will expose already vulnerable emerging markets to additional risks [3] - However, the depreciation of the dollar may serve as a "lifeline" for some emerging markets, easing their debt burdens and providing central banks with more room to cut interest rates to stimulate their economies [4] Group 4: Structural Economic Challenges - Global public finances are expected to remain under pressure in 2025, particularly in developed markets, due to rising defense spending, high interest costs, aging populations, weak economic growth, and ongoing social pressures [5] - The median global government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% at the end of 2025, indicating an increasing debt burden [5] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition, and fluctuating U.S. foreign policy adding complexity to the situation [6] Group 6: Rating Outlook - Despite numerous challenges, Fitch's mid-2025 rating outlook remains relatively balanced, with 13 countries receiving positive outlooks, slightly higher than the 10 countries with negative outlooks [7] - A series of rating downgrades since 2020 has created "headroom" for some countries, enhancing their resilience against deteriorating credit conditions [8] - The effectiveness of policy responses will be crucial in determining the direction of ratings, with timely interventions potentially supporting sovereign credit ratings [9]

据日经新闻获悉，本田汽车正准备投资日本芯片制造商 Rapidus，在国内采购下一代汽车所需的半导 体。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源：内容 编译自日经 。 Rapidus 的主要股东是丰田汽车。通过支持这家成立于 2022 年 8 月的日本公司，这两大日本汽车制 造商将确保在日本生产的芯片来源，这也将有助于 Rapidus 开始量产尖端产品并找到客户。 本田正考虑在截至明年3月的2025财年下半年入股Rapidus。包括丰田、NTT和索尼集团在内的现有 股东已向这家芯片制造商投资总计73亿日元（约合5040万美元）。尽管具体细节尚未敲定，但预计 本田的投资总额将达到数十亿日元。 Rapidus 已向现有股东和银行请求额外投资，本田将加入包括日本政府在内的该芯片制造商的支持者 团体。 Rapidus在2027年开始量产前需要筹集5万亿日元，虽然经济产业省已决定注资1.72万亿日元，但这 意味着该公司仍需拿出3万亿日元以上的资金。 参考链接 https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Honda-to-invest-in-Japanese ...

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings indicates that global public finances will continue to face pressure in 2025 due to increased defense spending, rising interest costs, demographic trends, sluggish growth, and social pressures, particularly in developed markets [1] - The median government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to slightly rise from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% by the end of 2025 [1] - Geopolitical risks remain high due to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, trade tensions, social discontent, and volatility in U.S. foreign policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is driven by multiple factors including a weaker dollar, uncertainties in trade negotiations, rising inflation expectations, and heightened geopolitical risks [1][3][4] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold is currently trading around $3315.04 per ounce, having rebounded 0.4% to close at approximately $3325.45 per ounce on Monday [1] - The fluctuations in gold prices are often inversely related to the dollar index, which fell by 0.2% on Monday, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies [1] - The recent rebound in gold prices occurred after briefly hitting a one-week low, driven by increased buying interest due to the dollar's weakness [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The strong performance of U.S. employment data has alleviated some recession concerns but has not fully resolved market uncertainties regarding future Federal Reserve policies [1][3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3.6 basis points to 4.474%, while the 30-year yield fell by 1.6 basis points to 4.947% [3] - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield indicates a market expectation of an average annual inflation rate of 2.3% over the next decade [3] Group 3: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Geopolitical instability, such as social unrest in the U.S., enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] - The hardline stance of the Trump administration on trade and immigration may further increase global market uncertainties, prompting more investors to turn to gold [3] - Upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions for various maturities could influence market expectations regarding inflation and interest rates, potentially impacting gold prices [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices will be influenced by developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations and upcoming U.S. CPI data [4] - A breakthrough in trade talks or lower-than-expected inflation data could exert downward pressure on gold prices [4] - Long-term support for gold prices is expected to come from ongoing global economic uncertainties, central bank gold purchases, and increasing social unrest [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-10 地缘⻛险⽀撑⾦价 尽管美联储降息预期降温短期施压金价，但地缘政治风险及避险需求 支撑金价。 重点资讯： 1）据新华社，当地时间6月9日，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总 理何立峰与美方在英国伦敦开始举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 2）白宫经济顾问哈西特(Kevin Hassett)周一表示，美国三位最高贸 易谈判代表正寻求在伦敦握手言和，以达成中美同意的稀土协议。 3）民主党人和共和党人周日针锋相对。此前美国总统特朗普向洛杉 矶部署国民警卫队以应对当地大规模抗议活动。 价格逻辑： 投资者在中贸易谈判前保持谨慎，叠加持续的地缘政治风险，支撑避 险黄金。然而，市场对美联储今年大幅降息的预期降温，可能限制无 息黄金的上行空间。 周五公布的5月非农就业报告显示，新增就业13.9万人（预期13万， 前值修正为14.7万），失业率维持4.2%（符合预期），平均时薪增速 持平于3.9%（好于预期的3.7%）。数据公布后，市场对美联储年内降 息的押注减少，推动美债收益率走高，短期压制金价。但美元未能延 续非农后的涨势，主因特朗普持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the precious metals market, particularly gold, is influenced by multiple factors including a weakening dollar, changing risk sentiment, and developments in US-China trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Gold Prices - The weakening of the dollar index has created favorable conditions for a rebound in gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [3] - Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has further exacerbated the dollar's weakness, leading investors to reassess the value of dollar-denominated assets and shift some funds towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Concerns about global economic growth, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical issues, have put additional pressure on the dollar, supporting the rise in gold prices [3] Group 2: Risk Sentiment and Gold Demand - The escalation of geopolitical risks has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold being favored in the current environment due to ongoing conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia situation [4] - Developments in US-China trade relations significantly impact risk sentiment; easing tensions can lead to a shift towards riskier assets, while heightened trade friction tends to boost gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand [4] - Central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a structural change in demand for safe-haven assets, which provides a stable foundation for the gold market and supports long-term price stability [4]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美国数据喜忧参半，中国央行连续 7 个月增持黄金，市场关注中美谈判、俄罗 | | | 高位震荡 | 斯报复以及本周美国通胀数据。短期不确定性仍然较多，关注风险事件是否再 | | | | 次集中爆发。长期全球尚在秩序重塑途中，黄金战略配置价值高。【765-790】 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 因为白银弹性大，黄金高位调整情况之下，资金关注白银的补涨行情，白银冲 破此前震荡区间，冲击历史新高，风险偏好上升，白银继续上冲需要多方力量 | | | | 配合，背靠区间上沿等待做多。【8700-9000】 | | 铜 | 高位盘整 | 美国非农数据超预期，美元指数反弹，前期宏观利好已经兑现，短期铜多单止盈兑 | | | | 现，警惕铜高位回落风险，卖出套保把握逢高布局机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜 | | | | 关注区间【77900，79200】 | | 锌 | 区间震荡 | 国内宏观政策窗口期，锌供应产能高位释放，需求淡季来临和钢材拖累，锌低 | | | | 位震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of gold first rose and then fell this week. The short - term tariff issue is moving towards easing, and the market trading logic has changed, which is bearish for gold. The US economic data is mixed, and the short - term monetary policy is cautious, lacking positive factors for the gold price. Gold is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the callback pressure brought by the phased recovery of market risk appetite [2][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The on - shore basis (spot - futures) decreased by 2.6% to - 3.68 yuan/gram; the internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) increased by 157.2% to 13.80 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3.5% to 17,847 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.73% to 38,117,334 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 0.43% to 934.21 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 11.3% to 130,505 lots. The US Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3% to 4.51%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.24% to 99.2 [10] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 99.2, the US Treasury bond yield was 4.5%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.5%, the VIX index dropped to 16.77, the US overnight secured financing rate was 4.29%, the oil price rose 6.9%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.31%. The real interest rate rose to 2.19%, and the gold price rose 0.6% [2][9][16][20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5%. Developing - country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.13%. US and German bonds rebounded, with a US - German spread of 1.93%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.64%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.46%. The euro rose 0.43%, the British pound rose 0.51%, the Japanese yen fell 0.58%, and the Swiss franc rose slightly by 0.01%. Non - US currencies mostly appreciated [24][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly increased to 130,000 lots, and the SPDR gold ETF holding volume slightly increased to 934 tons. The RMB appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium narrowed. Gold rose slightly, silver rose sharply, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 92 [37][39] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's May CPI and import - export data, US May New York Fed inflation expectation; Tuesday: US May NFIB small - business confidence index, China's May financial data; Wednesday: US May CPI; Thursday: US May PPI and initial jobless claims, 10 - year US Treasury bond auction; Friday: US June University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectation [40]