基本面： ---趋势判断---- 美元和美国国债收益率的走势，直接影响了黄金的定价机制。周二，美元指数上涨0.19%至98.19，在美联储会议记录公布后保持涨势。尽管全年美元下跌近 10%，创下2017年以来最差年度表现，但年末的反弹仍对黄金构成了压力。美联储政策方向不明朗，导致美元及其他货币汇率波动加大，市场需转向经济数 据寻求线索。与此同时，美国债市收益率小幅波动，10年期公债收益率上涨1.2个基点至4.127%，30年期收益率上涨0.4个基点至4.808%。这些上涨削弱了黄 金的吸引力，因为更高的收益率提升了持有债券的回报。 周二的数据显示，美国10月房价同比涨幅为逾13年来最慢，这被视为住房市场可负担性改善的迹象，但也暗示经济放缓可能推动美联储进一步宽松。两 年/10年期公债收益率差报67个基点，市场预计1月美联储降息概率仅为16.1%。总体而言，美元和收益率的年末涨势虽限制了黄金反弹，但全年美元疲软和 利差缩小，仍是黄金飙升的幕后推手。 白银市场的强劲表现：工业需求爆发，涨幅超黄金成焦点作为黄金的"兄弟金属"，白银在2025年的表现同样抢眼。周二，白银一度上涨8%至78.03美元/盎 司，收报76. ...

基本面： 周三（12月31日）亚盘时段，现货黄金震荡收窄并继续受限承压，目前暂交投于4352美元附近。尽管周二（12月30日）现货黄金价格一度强劲反弹，但最终 涨幅收窄，这反映出市场对避险资产的持续需求与美元走强之间的拉锯。然而，纵观全年，黄金价格已累计上涨66%，有望成为自1979年以来表现最为亮眼 的一年。这一现象不仅源于美联储的货币政策调整，还受到央行购金、资金流入以及国际热点事件的综合影响。 进入2025年末，黄金市场经历了剧烈的过山车行情。周一，现货黄金从上周五创下的历史高点4549.71美元/盎司大幅回落，最低触及4303美元附近，创下自 10月21日以来的最大单日百分比跌幅。这一回落主要源于获利了结的压力，投资者在连续上涨后选择锁定利润，导致市场短期调整。然而，这种下跌迅速吸 引了逢低买盘的介入，推动黄金在周二展开强劲反弹。现货黄金一度上涨1.64%，触及4404美元/盎司附近，显示出市场对黄金避险属性的持续认可。避险买 盘的涌入，进一步强化了这一反弹势头，因为投资者重新关注全球地缘政治和经济风险，将黄金视为安全的港湾。 美元和美国国债收益率的走势，直接影响了黄金的定价机制。周二，美元指数上涨0 ...

【要闻速递】 【最新纸白银行情解析】 年末，俄罗斯指责乌克兰试图袭击总统普京的官邸，并誓言报复，而乌克兰则称这一指控毫无根据。乌 克兰总统泽连斯基在与媒体交流中表示，基辅正在与华盛顿讨论美军驻扎乌克兰的可能性，作为安全保 障的一部分，并强调所谓普京官邸袭击为"伪造"。 与此同时，波兰总理图斯克乐观表示，得益于美国的安全保证，乌克兰可能在数周内实现和平，尽管成 功远未确定。他甚至暗示美军可能被派往乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的接触线，这虽未得到白宫确认，但已引 发市场对冲突升级的担忧。 Peter Grant在评论中指出，市场对俄乌和平协议仍持怀疑态度，更广泛的地缘政治风险指标仍在升高。 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于16.910一线下方，今日开盘于17.099元/克，截至发 稿，纸白银暂报16.923元/克，下跌1.12%，最高触及17.544元/克，最低下探16.694元/克，目前来看，纸 白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 日图来看，纸白银价格从高位震荡下跌，目前处于负值区间，一小时DMI显示处于下跌轨道中，MACD 向零线倾斜，表明目前价格走弱，纸白银走势下方关注15.50-16.50支撑，上方关注1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious bearish outlook on crude oil, natural gas [2][7] - Short - term bearish rebound expected in LPG, L, PP, PVC, asphalt, glass, soda ash [2][7] - Suggests callback buying opportunities for PTA, methanol, urea [31][37][41] - Recommends rebound short - selling for MEG [34] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices will oscillate in a range due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus [2] - LPG prices will strengthen in the short - term due to cost - side support but trend downwards in the long - term [2] - PTA offers callback buying opportunities as its short - term supply - demand balance is tight [31] - MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, and investors should look for rebound short - selling opportunities [34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.22%, Brent down 0.26%, and SC up 0.69% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in South America may boost prices in the short - term, but supply surplus in the off - season exerts downward pressure [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers, and demand in Japan increased in November. US inventories rose in the week ending December 19 [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the SC range of [430 - 440] [13] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's CP contract price increase boosts prices in the short - term, and supply and demand show certain resilience [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: It follows market sentiment in the short - term, with weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the L range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 6321 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Cost strengthens in January, and the industry chain faces high inventory - reduction pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the PP range of [6250 - 6400] [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4810 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [28] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthens, but high inventory restricts the rebound space [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profit on long positions, wait for inventory reduction for long - term long positions, and conduct hedging for industrial customers. Focus on the V range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5280 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but there is a risk of negative feedback from the demand side [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for TA05 in the range of [5080 - 5190] [33] MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 3686 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic production capacity increases, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is expected to accumulate [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and look for rebound short - selling opportunities for EG05 in the range of [3780 - 3880] [36] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure exists, demand is slightly weak, and cost support is weak [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for MA05 in the range of [2210 - 2250] [40] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets remains open [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for UR05 in the range of [1725 - 1755] [44] LNG - **Market Performance**: On December 29, the NG main contract closed at 4.687 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 7.35% [46] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, and supply is relatively abundant [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [3.727 - 4.160] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the BU main contract closed at 3038 yuan/ton, up 1.00% [49] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and supply and demand are relatively loose [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Focus on the BU range of [3000 - 3100] [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.4% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations support prices, and supply and demand are weak [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long in the short - term and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [55] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 closed at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.7% [57] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following glass prices, with stable supply and weak demand [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the SA range of [1200 - 1240] [59]

来源：金投网 今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第7个工作日，当前预计油价上调60元/吨，折合每升油价上调0.05-0.06 元，相比昨日的油价预计涨幅继续不增不减，仍超上调红线，油价上涨中。 注意，国际油价还在上涨 地区 92号汽油 注意，受地缘政治风险影响，国际油价仍有上涨态势。俄乌冲突，也门局势，美委局势，均在支撑油价 上涨。国内预计油价涨幅暂时不变，预计在元旦假期结束后，会有新变动，希望到时候是下跌走势。 这边说下昨日原油市场的表现，美原油：上涨0.24%，收于57.95美元/桶。布伦特原油上涨0.08%，收于 61.27美元/桶。今日国际油价继续震荡，截至发稿，美原油暂报57.89美元/桶，跌幅0.10%。 目前据三名欧佩克代表表示，由于全球石油供应过剩的迹象越来越多，预计欧佩克+在本周末召开会议 时将坚持暂停增产的计划。短期内或可能缓解市场的供应过剩担忧，提振油价上行。 另外，据今日凌晨的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储内部官员分歧问题依旧严重，对降息的不确定性也加 剧了原油市场的波动行情。 总的来说，国际油价在短期内仍有上涨可能，晚间会有美国EIA原油库存，以及当周初请失业金人数， 油价仍有震荡空间。 本轮油 ...

一、基本面 1、美联储货币政策：2025年12月美联储连续第三次降息25个基点，基准利率降至3.5%-3.75%，降低持有黄金的机会成本；尽管政策制定者内部分歧显著 （部分支持维持利率、部分主张更大幅度降息），且2026年预计仅降息一次，但经济数据恶化的潜在风险可能推动美联储加速宽松，为黄金提供长期支撑。 此外，美联储启动短期美债购买的技术性操作，稳定了市场预期。 昨日12月30日（星期二），黄金亚欧盘震荡上涨，到美盘前最高上涨至4404/4405区域。美盘受阻转跌，凌晨收盘前跌至4334附近，日线收出一根长上影线 的十字阳线。 2、四小时级别：核心关注4303的得失情况，该点位为短线多空博弈的关键分水岭。若日内行情能够企稳于该点位上方，仍有继续走强的可能，后续需继续 上看昨日高点4404/4405；若该区间被有效突破，进一步上攻目标可关注4426/4427、4455/4456区域阻力。上述两个点位对应黄金价格从4550下跌至4303过程 中的黄金分割0.5与0.618关键位置。 若行情有效跌破4303，则市场将延续下行趋势，反弹过程中可寻找逢高做空机会，下方依次关注4286、4274/4273以及4225/ ...

美国总统特朗普公开证实中情局本月在委内瑞拉境内实施了打击行动，这标志着美国对委施压战略的重 大升级。 《环球时报》援引CNN及多家媒体报道称，当地时间29日，美国总统特朗普对媒体证实了一则消息： 美国中央情报局近日对委内瑞拉沿岸的一个据信被用于储存和运输毒品的港口设施实施了无人机袭击。 这一行动迅速引发了各方对局势失控的担忧。彭博分析认为，虽然白宫将行动定性为反毒打击，但这引 发了美国国会关于战争授权的激烈辩论，同时也极限测试着委内瑞拉军方的忠诚度与底线。投资者正密 切关注该地区局势是否会进一步升级，从而对能源市场及区域地缘政治稳定造成更广泛的直接冲击。 马杜罗的沉默与未来走向 面对美方罕见的直接越境打击，委内瑞拉方面的反应显得格外谨慎。据环球时报报道，截至发稿前，委 内瑞拉官方未对此事作出正式表态。媒体观察到，马杜罗在周一晚间近两小时的讲话中并未提及此次袭 击，而是强调了军队的团结与忠诚。 特朗普在会见以色列总理内塔尼亚胡前对媒体确认，美军摧毁了这一"大型设施"，并称该处发生"大爆 炸"，"现在那个地方已经不存在了"。虽然目前尚未确认有人员伤亡，且委内瑞拉方面暂未正式回应， 但地缘政治风险的急剧上升已引发市 ...

here. So, let's get to Kevin Green who joins me now. And, uh, we've got a little bit more data out this morning.I saw we got some Chicago PMIs, which picked up. Uh, we got some housing data. Just run us through what you're seeing as far as some of the economic updates this morning, KG.>> Yeah, the Chicago PMI PMIs came in a lot better than the street's expectations, coming in at 43.5%. Street was looking for 39.8%. Now, one thing to note, Chicago PMIs have been in contractionary territory for almost two and ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market has regained investor attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs on December 24, 2023, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver peaking at $72.7 per ounce, reflecting year-to-date increases of over 70% and nearly 150% respectively, significantly outperforming most global asset classes [1] - The primary catalyst for the surge in precious metal prices is the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by rising unemployment and lower-than-expected core CPI, which has strengthened the outlook for policy easing and weakened the dollar, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks have accelerated capital inflows into the precious metals market as a safe haven, while structural market dynamics due to imbalances in industrial supply and demand, particularly from the expansion of photovoltaic installations and surging AI server demand, have provided strong support for silver prices [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the precious metals market is expected to experience a further acceleration in capital allocation due to heightened risk aversion, with overall price trends showing a pattern of fluctuating increases [2] - Short-term risks include potential profit-taking by investors and the possibility of monetary policy easing falling short of expectations, which could exert downward pressure on prices [2] - Long-term prospects remain positive for precious metals, supported by the onset of global monetary easing, continued central bank gold purchases, and the deepening process of de-dollarization, alongside persistent geopolitical risks [2]

技术面：周初国际黄金价格持续性暴跌，当日于4549美元附近暴跌于4303美元附近止跌，日内黄金价格 下跌246美元左右。通过市场情绪了解到周初黄金价格会出现回撤修复，但是没有想到会暴跌这么狠。 总的来说周初的交易状况还算理想。周二黄金价格稍有反弹，在触及4383美元附近承压后，后续时段更 多以小幅震荡为主，这可能就是日内黄金涨跌幅度过大引发的后遗症，需要一定的修复时间来缓解。后 面再回撤正常路径。 短期上方关键阻力位位于布林带上轨4520美元附近。若能果断突破，将打开进一步上行空间，有望重新 测试历史高点4550美元，并向4600美元心理关口发起冲击。 下方初始支撑位于4305-4300美元区间，对应12月29日低点及重要整数位。若失守该区域，修正可能延 续，下方目标指向12月16日低点4271美元附近。 黄金策略提示：（临盘试探为主，破位再做调整） 临盘阻力：4387.4397.4430 临盘支撑：4340.4323.4305 临盘：支撑和阻力点位建议触及尝试轻仓介入多空误差±2．建议防守5个点，初次看15个点左右 12月30日，在全球经济不确定性与地缘政治风险持续升温的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资产再度受到 ...