■亚期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年2月4日 Z0003135 张晓珍 | 甲醇价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月3日 | 2月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2247 | 2252 | -5 | -0.22% | | | MA2609 收盘价 | 2279 | 2278 | 1 | 0.04% | | | MA59价差 | -32 | -26 | -6 | 23.08% | | | 太仓基差 | -42 | -50 | 8 | -16.00% | | | MTO05盘面 | -107 | -120 | 13 | -10.83% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1780 | 1780 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2000 | 2008 | -8 | -0.37% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2200 | 2210 | -10 | -0.45% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 420 | 43 ...

长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：美指走软与逢低买盘双重支撑，隔夜伦铝收涨 1.39%；市场利多消息涌现叠 加金铜大涨刺激，沪铝反弹，中长期供需偏强，今现铝或上涨。 【铝期货市场】：指走软与逢低买盘双重支撑，隔夜伦铝偏强上探，最新收盘报价3099美元/吨，收涨42 美元，涨幅1.39%，成交量33093手减少20210手，持仓量704013手增加1153手。晚间沪铝高开走强，主 力月2603合约最新收盘价报23865元/吨，涨345元，涨幅1.47%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月3日伦铝最新库存量报495175公吨，较上个交易日减减少2000吨，跌幅 0.40%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江铝业网讯：2月3日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报23290元/吨，跌410元；广东现货A00铝锭价报 23300元/吨，跌400元。市场利多消息涌现叠加金铜大涨刺激，沪铝迎来阶段性反弹。 宏观层面，近期金属市场行情剧烈波动，主要受美联储主席人选变动影响。特朗普提名以鹰派著称的沃 什，引发投资者对美联储政策重新评估，美元指数一度跳涨。不过，美国制造业数据释放积极信号，上 月PMI回升至52.6，创20 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and macroeconomic conditions. Different commodities show various trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The prospect of US - Iran negotiations is uncertain. Current conflicts mainly involve sanctions and local military frictions, with the situation controllable. Oil prices are affected by both geopolitical factors and inventory pressure, and are expected to continue to fluctuate [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the bearish sentiment of the crude - oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively tight supply, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure. The high - sulfur > low - sulfur pattern may continue [21] - **Asphalt**: Supply pressure is limited. Consumption has improved year - on - year. The second - quarter refineries may face rising raw - material costs. Near - month contracts are supported by cost [22] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The narrative of the US dollar credit crisis and global order reshaping remains unchanged, but it is currently mainly a capital game. Precious metals are in a high - level consolidation phase, and investors should wait for volatility to decline [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: US strategic metal stockpiling plans and industry suggestions for commercial discount stockpiling have attracted re - allocation in the copper market. Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels, but there is downward pressure around the Spring Festival [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated slightly. There is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival due to weak fundamentals and large spot discounts [5] - **Zinc**: After the decline in Shanghai zinc, short - selling sentiment was released, but capital congestion remains high. Zinc is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [7] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel had a weak rebound, and stainless - steel downstream demand is weak. Spot prices are supported by low inventory and strong price - holding intentions of traders [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin recovered its previous decline. Some point - price buying emerged after the decline in tin prices. After closing the option strategy, investors should wait and see [10] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium rebounded sharply. The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [11] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices rebounded. After the production cut by leading enterprises, the market expects a slight supply - demand gap in February. The price may test the previous high in the short term and may oscillate near the key level if the progress is less than expected [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon continued to oscillate. The supply may be reduced due to planned production cuts by leading enterprises, and downstream demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be slightly strong [13] Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices oscillated at night. Rebar demand is in the off - season, while hot - rolled coil demand and production increased slightly. Overall demand is weak, and the price rebound is restricted [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market oscillated. Supply increased slightly but was lower than last year. Demand is at a low level. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] Coal - Related - **Coke**: Coke prices oscillated. Coking profits are average, and inventory increased slightly. The price is likely to oscillate within a range [16] - **Coking Coal**: Coking - coal prices oscillated. Total inventory increased significantly. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [17] Other Metals and Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The price corrected. Supply is in excess, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price corrected. Supply changed little, and demand has some resilience. The price is affected by supply excess and policy [19] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The resumption of major Asia - Europe routes by leading shipping companies may put pressure on far - month contracts. The spot price may decline slightly before the Spring Festival and may be under pressure again after the festival. The 04 contract is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern [20] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The soybean - meal inventory may decline after the Spring Festival. The short - term trend of US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal is expected to be weak and oscillatory [35] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: US policies are beneficial to North American raw - material demand. The prices of soybean and palm oils are affected by macro factors and are giving back the macro premium [36] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to ease in the first quarter. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [37] - **Soybean No.1**: Policy - led soybean auctions increased market supply. The price is affected by macro factors, and short - term policy and market sentiment should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: The overall corn - selling progress is close to 60%. The price is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short term, and the post - festival market should be followed [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weak. The short - term supply is increasing, and the long - term price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [40] - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated. The short - term spot price is weak, but there is upward - repair power in the first half of 2026. After the spot price reaches a low point around the Spring Festival, a long - position strategy for the first - half 2026 futures contracts can be considered [41] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly. The short - term trend may be oscillatory. The domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand. Spinning mills' raw - material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are average. Investors should wait and see for now [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on the production - volume expectation gap. The short - term sugar price faces upward pressure [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures oscillated. The Spring Festival stocking peak has increased cold - storage sales. The market focuses on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [44] - **Wood**: The wood - futures price is at a low level. Low inventory provides some support, and investors should wait and see [45] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper - pulp futures oscillated narrowly. Port inventory continued to increase, and demand support is weak. The price may continue to decline to find support [46] Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and index - futures contracts also increased. The short - term market focuses on geopolitical and liquidity factors, and the performance of sectors with performance support should be monitored [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures showed mixed trends. Unilateral trading may have limited short - term market movements, with a box - type oscillation. Opportunities in curve trading should be noted [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China plans to include copper concentrate in the national reserve, leading to a general rebound in metal prices. The A - share market rebounded on Tuesday, with growth - style small - cap stocks leading the gains. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term and remain positive in the long term [2][3]. - Precious metals rebounded due to bargain - hunting. However, it is too early to say that the adjustment is over, and prices are expected to continue to adjust until volatility cools [4][5]. - Copper prices rebounded significantly because of China's plan to increase copper reserves. Short - term copper prices are expected to continue to rebound [6][7]. - Aluminum prices' adjustment slowed after risk sentiment was released. The market is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [8][9]. - Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level due to the co - existence of bullish and bearish factors [10]. - Cast aluminum is expected to follow the cost and oscillate as it is in a seasonal off - season with no prominent fundamental contradictions [11]. - Zinc prices had a weak rebound due to positive news, but it is hard to say that the adjustment is over [12]. - Lead prices are expected to stabilize and weakly correct following the non - ferrous sector [13]. - Tin prices had a weak rebound due to the boost of capacity control signals, but the fundamental support is weakening [14]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate as the steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the Spring Festival [15]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate as the supply is strong and demand is weak [16][17]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate as the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival [18]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate as the precipitation in Argentina has improved and the domestic soybean purchase plan is progressing [19][20]. - Palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust as the production in Malaysia decreased, exports increased, and India's imports surged in January [21][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump signed a temporary spending agreement, ending the partial shutdown. The Fed's officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The dollar index fell, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose. The Nasdaq fell sharply. Gold and copper prices rebounded, and oil prices rose due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rebounded on Tuesday, with growth - style small - cap stocks leading the gains. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrate in the national reserve [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, precious metals rebounded significantly. Some investors bought on dips, and domestic consumers "bottom - fished" physical metals. The adjustment of precious metal prices is a correction of market sentiment. It is too early to say that the adjustment is over, and prices are expected to continue to adjust [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper rebounded from a low level. China plans to increase strategic copper reserves. Geopolitical risks and the weak dollar have pushed up the metal's valuation. Overseas mines'复产 is not smooth, non - US inventories are low, and domestic inventory accumulation has slowed. Copper prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, and LME aluminum rose. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The risk sentiment was released, and the market repaired the previous over - reaction. The fundamentals are weak, and aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [8][9]. 3.1.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures contract rose slightly. The social inventory accumulation slowed, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased. The market is in a game between the expected production cuts during the Spring Festival and the new capacity and cost - reduction pressure after the Spring Festival. Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level [10]. 3.1.6 Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures contract fell. Cast aluminum follows the cost and oscillates as it is in a seasonal off - season with no prominent fundamental contradictions [11]. 3.1.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc stabilized and oscillated. The US government's shutdown concern decreased, and the Fed's dovish statement alleviated market pessimism. The downstream buying decreased, and the domestic market is in the Spring Festival inventory accumulation cycle. Zinc prices had a weak rebound, but it is hard to say that the adjustment is over [12]. 3.1.8 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead oscillated horizontally. The LME inventory increased, and domestic downstream enterprises are on holiday. The inventory is expected to increase, which suppresses lead prices. However, the loss of secondary lead smelters has expanded, and the price is expected to stabilize and weakly correct [13]. 3.1.9 Tin - On Tuesday, the tin futures contract had a weak rebound. The market's selling pressure was repaired due to the capacity control signal. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the supply from Myanmar and Indonesia has recovered. Tin prices are expected to have a weak rebound and repair [14]. 3.1.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading volume decreased. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the Spring Festival. Steel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - policies [15]. 3.1.11 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory increased, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. 3.1.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The supply is tightening due to environmental protection policies and coal mine holidays, and the demand is weak as steel mills are on holiday. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to oscillate [18]. 3.1.13 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures fell. The precipitation in Argentina has improved, and the domestic soybean purchase plan is progressing. The market is expected to oscillate [19][20]. 3.1.14 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures fell slightly. The production in Malaysia decreased, exports increased, and India's imports surged in January. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust [21][23]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, in both domestic and international markets [24]. 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and other products from February 2 to February 3 [25][28][30].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 康远宁 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 2月3日，美国政府正准备发布一项通用许可证，允许企业在委内瑞拉开采石油，这是特朗普政府放 松制裁、重振该国陷入停滞的能源产业计划的一部分。知情人士透露，美国财政部最快可能在本周发布 该许可证。此举是吸引与美国有关联的企业介入、恢复委内瑞拉原油产量的关键一步。美国上周已发布 另一项通用许可证，允许企业买卖委内瑞拉原油。该许可证涵盖多项下游业务，包括将原油装船、出 口、运输和炼制，但前提是由"一家已注册的美国实体"执行。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 2月3日，美国贸易代表格里尔表示，印度同意降低对美国出口产品的关税。据称，对工业品的关税 将从13.5%降至零。此外，印度将继续对部分农产品维持一定的保护措施。双方还就降低印度技术性非 关税贸易壁垒达成共识。格里尔还称，他们一直在监测印度逐步减少购买俄罗斯石油的情况。（来源： Bloomberg） 3、 近几个月来，印度已经削减了俄油采购量，特别是在莫斯科的主要生产商遭受制裁之后。但由于折 扣仍具吸引力，贸易流并未中断。特朗普政府数月来一直 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unprecedented surge in gold prices, which reached $5,093 per ounce on January 26, 2026, driven by various factors including geopolitical tensions, changes in U.S. Federal Reserve policies, and sustained central bank gold purchases [1][3][5][7]. Group 2 - Three main engines are driving the historic rise in gold prices: 1. Geopolitical "black swan" events, such as the Greenland sovereignty dispute and increased military tensions in the Middle East, have highlighted gold's safe-haven attributes. Historical data shows that a 1% increase in the global risk index (VIX) correlates with an average 0.3% rise in gold prices [3]. 2. Expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy due to a weakening U.S. labor market may lead to unexpected monetary easing, contributing to a 1.6% drop in the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the largest weekly decline in eight months, which in turn supports gold prices [5]. 3. Continued central bank gold purchases, with the People's Bank of China increasing its reserves for 14 consecutive months, and Poland's central bank planning to buy an additional 150 tons, are providing long-term support for gold prices [7]. Group 3 - Historical comparisons indicate that the current gold price surge is significantly different from the 2008 financial crisis, where gold prices only increased by 25%. In contrast, the cumulative increase from 2024 to 2026 has exceeded 150%. Additionally, the simultaneous decline of gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the dollar suggests a market re-evaluation of risk [9]. Group 4 - For ordinary investors, three types of participation strategies are suggested: 1. Physical gold is suitable for long-term allocation but requires consideration of storage costs and liquidity constraints. 2. Gold ETFs, such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), have seen a recent increase in holdings by 6.87 tons, making them suitable for medium-term holding. 3. Gold-related stocks in the A-share market have recently experienced a surge, but their volatility is at the 90th percentile historically, indicating potential for correction [10][12]. Group 5 - As Bank of America raises its gold price target to $6,000, it is essential to recognize that this market trend reflects a restructuring of the global economic order. Systemic risk premiums are being permanently factored into gold prices due to the U.S. potentially undermining its own trade rules [11].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日星期三 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 6.83%报 4970.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 10.27%报 84.92 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 4.2%报 1108.8 元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 5.93%报 | | | | | 22393 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 2 月 3 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 3.72 吨， 当前持仓量为 1083.38 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 108.89 吨，当前持仓量为 16437.7 ...

许多市场人士指出，尽管出现回调，黄金的基本逻辑依然未变，因为包括高企的地缘政治风险、宏观不 确定性、资产配置分散化资金流入，以及各国央行持续买金等结构性驱动因素依然稳固存在。瑞银策略 师Joni Teves在一份报告中表示："我们认为，这次回调从长期来看将有利于市场。这一阶段应当为投资 者提供在更具吸引力的入场价位上建立长期战略性仓位的机会。" 周二，Comex2月黄金期货收涨6.1%，报每盎司4,903.70美元，创下历史上最大的单日美元涨幅，同时也 是自2009年3月19日以来最佳的单日百分比涨幅。此前两个交易日金价累计暴跌13%，这一剧烈回调吸 引了逢低买盘重新入场。一些分析师表示，黄金价格的反弹印证了一种观点，即近期的抛售压力更多源 于短期投机仓位和动量交易，而非市场基本面发生根本性变化。 Sucden Financial分析师在一份报告中表示："此前价格已经远远高于通常与地缘政治或宏观不确定性相 关的纯避险需求所对应的水平。正因如此，这轮回调看起来并非不确定性消退所致，而更像是过度仓位 的出清。" 在金价于上周五出现暴跌后，就已有多位资产管理人士认为，黄金此轮下跌并不单纯是基本面转弱，而 更像是一场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have shown volatility due to geopolitical tensions and trade agreements, particularly between the US and India, which may impact the global oil supply and demand dynamics [4][5][8]. Market Dynamics - Recent oil price movements include WTI crude oil futures rising by $1.07 (1.72%) to $63.21 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increasing by $1.03 (1.55%) to $67.33 per barrel [6][19]. - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant drop in US crude oil inventories, exceeding 10 million barrels, which is a bullish signal for oil prices [4][5]. Trade Agreements - The US and India have reached a trade agreement where the US will reduce tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, in exchange for India agreeing to stop purchasing Russian oil and instead buy from the US and potentially Venezuela [8][21]. - This agreement is expected to pressure Russian oil sales and boost demand for Middle Eastern oil, with India being a major oil importer [8][21]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran regarding nuclear issues are influencing oil market sentiments, with potential impacts on oil supply if tensions escalate or if negotiations succeed [10][23]. - The market is closely monitoring the outcomes of these negotiations, as any breakdown could lead to renewed geopolitical risks and volatility in oil prices [10][23]. Indian Refinery Adjustments - Indian refiners are in a transitional phase regarding Russian oil imports, with some already halting new orders while awaiting government directives [9][22]. - The expected reduction in Russian oil imports is anticipated to be gradual, allowing refiners to adjust their supply sources without sudden disruptions [9][22].

2月3日，上海国际能源交易中心发布公告称，自2026年2月5日收盘结算时起，原油、低硫燃料油及20号 胶期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度统一调整为9%，套期保值持仓交易保证金比例调整为10%，一般持 仓交易保证金比例调整为11%。分析人士提醒，交易者应密切关注市场动态，合理控制仓位，做好风险 防范措施。 物产中大（600704）期货研究院院长助理谢雯认为，内盘原油期货价格大跌，主要原因是地缘政治风险 降温。本周，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬下令同美国启动核谈判，美国总统特朗普称正在与伊朗接触。同时， 1月底美国天然气期货价格暴涨对原油价格有所提振，但美国与欧洲的天气预报显示气温将逐渐升高， 两地天然气期货价格本周也大幅回落。因此，在地缘局势缓和和欧美地区气温回升的背景下，先前押注 原油价格上涨的资金逐渐撤出。 继周一跌停后，昨日上海原油期货主力合约再度大跌。今天凌晨，国际油价收盘全线上涨。消息面上， 美国至1月30日当周API原油库存减少1107.9万桶，之前一周为增加24.7万桶。 对于下跌的持续性，隋晓影认为，随着利空情绪逐步释放，原油价格短期进一步下行的动力会减弱。后 续需要关注两方面因素：一是美伊谈判进展，若不及预 ...