Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The current methanol price is oscillating at a low level, mainly due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in inland areas, which suppress the upward space. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventories and the lack of restocking motivation among MTO enterprises. However, considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with inland areas is also relatively low, the room for further decline is limited. With the upcoming peak season for traditional downstream industries, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.34%); MA05 closed at 2385 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%); MA09 closed at 2230 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.77%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices: In太仓, it was 2277.50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Shandong, it remained unchanged at 2385 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2272.50 yuan/ton, down 12.50 yuan/ton (-0.55%); in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, there was no change [1]. - Basis: The basis of 太仓 spot - MA was -101.50 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. b) Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: The prices of 部尔多斯Q5500, 大同Q5500, and 榆林Q6000 remained unchanged at 495 yuan/ton, 552.50 yuan/ton, and 567.50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. c) Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 455.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at -382 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit of methanol: The profit of 西北MTO was -115.80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-20.88%); the profit of 华东MTO was -584.07 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-3.91%); the profit of acetic acid was 484.80 yuan/ton, up 31.40 yuan/ton (6.93%); the profit of MTBE was 257.52 yuan/ton, up 31.80 yuan/ton (14.09%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at -276.40 yuan/ton; the profit of 一曲歌 remained unchanged at 228 yuan/ton [1]. d) Trading Strategy Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks at the mine end [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between short - and long - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is under pressure [2][11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industry inventory is accumulating, and the strategy is to short at high prices [2][15]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market information changes [2][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,980 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, spot prices, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Many events occurred in Indonesia, including the trial production of the CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP, plans to shorten mining quota periods, production suspensions in some nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and the takeover of a nickel - mine area by the forestry working group [4][5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on futures contracts (such as 2511 and 2601 contracts), spot prices, basis, and raw - material prices are provided [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, and Zijin Mining's lithium - salt project was put into production [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, prices, profits, inventories, and raw - material costs of industrial silicon and polysilicon is presented [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The three ministries and commissions issued the "National Industrial Resources Comprehensive Utilization Advanced and Applicable Process Technology Equipment Catalog (2025 Edition)" [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (slightly bearish), and that of polysilicon is 0 (neutral) [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of CBOT soybeans is expected to be strong, and the price of DCE soybean meal may rebound; the price of DCE soybeans is expected to fluctuate [2][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3959 yuan/ton during the day session, up 33 yuan (+0.84%), and 3956 yuan/ton during the night session, unchanged; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3070 yuan/ton during the day session, up 4 yuan (+0.13%), and 3066 yuan/ton during the night session, down 21 yuan (-0.68%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1045.25 cents/bushel, up 11.75 cents (+1.14%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 288.3 dollars/short ton, up 0.6 dollars (+0.21%) [3] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 3060 - 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 - 20 yuan compared to the previous day; in East China, the price in Taizhou Huifu was 2990 yuan/ton; in South China, the price was 3030 - 3110 yuan/ton, up 10 - 20 yuan compared to the previous day [3] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 10.6 million tons two trading days ago, and the inventory was 106.39 million tons two trading weeks ago [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 12, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 1.1%. The USDA's supply - demand report showed that the estimated planting area of US soybeans was 81.1 million acres, and the harvested area was 80.3 million acres, both up 200,000 acres from the previous month. The yield per acre was 53.5 bushels, lower than the previous month. The production was slightly increased by 9 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels. The estimated crush was increased by 15 million bushels to a record 2.555 billion bushels, while exports were decreased by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels, the lowest in six years. The estimated ending inventory was increased by 10 million bushels, but some analysts said the increase was lower than market expectations [3][6] - On September 12, 2025, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce confirmed that Vice - Premier He Lifeng would lead a delegation to Spain from September 14 - 17 to hold talks with the US side on issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok [6] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts of the day session on the reporting day [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is relatively strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is decreasing, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The basis is - 870 with a spot price of 14,950, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is running below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The main position has a net short position with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand** - Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is relatively high [4][6]. - Automobile production and sales are seasonally declining, while tire production reached a new high in the same period but declined month - on - month, and tire industry exports are recovering [23][26][29][32]. - **Price** - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on September 12 [8]. - The basis strengthened on September 12 [35]. - **Inventory** - The exchange inventory has changed slightly recently [14]. - The Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly recently [17]. - The import volume has rebounded [20]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely Factors** - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resilient spot prices [6]. - Domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Bearish Factors** - Increasing supply [6]. - Bearish domestic economic indicators [6]. - Trade frictions [6].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美豆地区未来十五天降雨低于正常水平。本周豆粕库存继续累库，周二美豆优良率 | | 豆粕 | | 虽有环比下降，但低于市场预期。周六 USDA 公布 9 月供需报告，美豆产量及期末 | | | 短线整理趋弱 | 库存环比调增。但全球大豆期末库存环比调降。报告对美豆略偏空。隔夜美豆受报 | | ★ | | 告影响波动较大，最终收涨。由于美豆收获临近，叠加国内短期供应充足，市场看 | | | | 多追多谨慎对待，注意仓位控制及风控管理。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。上周中加会晤后，尚未 | | 菜粕 | | 有新的进展出现。中方延期对加籽的反倾调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日， | | ★ | 短线整理 | 但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关 | | | | 注中加近期会议结果。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 | | 棕榈油 | | 望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。美国议员提交法案反对将小型 ...

2025 年 9 月 15 日 沥青：出货平平向稳，价格南降北升 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,393 | -2.19% | 3,404 | 0.32% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,368 | -2.74% | 3,387 | 0.56% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 43,199 | 10,098 | 25,946 | (9,141) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 238,778 | 52,341 | 252,640 | (140) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 68260 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand side shows marginal improvement, but the pressure of high supply and low downstream profits restricts the upside space. The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [5] - The strategy suggests a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling straddle combinations on rallies for options [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Fundamentals**: Supply shows differentiation, with silicon - iron production slightly decreasing and silicon - manganese production slightly increasing this week. The previous continuous resumption trend has shifted to high - level stable operation. Demand for raw materials remains high as the pig - iron output of 247 steel mills rebounds significantly after the parade. However, the recovery of steel demand in the second week of September is not obvious, and the risk of production cuts affecting raw - material demand still exists due to low steel profits. The cost side supports silicon - manganese, with a slight increase in electricity prices in major production areas and stable manganese - ore port inventories, which are significantly lower than the same period in previous years [5] - **Market sentiment**: Rumors of energy - consumption control in some industrial - silicon production areas have disturbed the ferro - alloy supply side, but the high - supply problem still exists, so one should not be overly optimistic about the rebound height [5] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading is expected to oscillate at the bottom; arbitrage requires waiting and seeing; options suggest selling straddle combinations on rallies [6] 2. Core Logic Analysis - **Demand**: The daily average pig - iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1171 million tons. The weekly demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 19,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons; the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types (70%) is 122,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons [11] - **Supply**: The sample opening rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 36.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%; the national silicon - iron output (weekly supply) is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The sample opening rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93%; the national silicon - manganese output (99% of weekly supply) is 214,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons [12] - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 12, the national inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 69,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the national inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national production capacity) is 167,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons [13] 3. Weekly Data Tracking - **Spot price - basis**: There are price and basis trend charts for Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia silicon - iron 72%FeSi from 2021 - 2025 [18] - **Production situation of dual - silicon enterprises**: There are charts showing the weekly output and opening rate of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [24] - **Steel - mill production situation**: There are charts showing the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, social steel inventory, and daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [29] - **Silicon - manganese cost - profit**: On September 11, 2025, the production costs and profits of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented, with all regions showing losses [31] - **Silicon - iron cost - profit**: On September 11, 2025, the production costs and profits of silicon - iron in different regions are presented, with all regions showing losses [41] - **Cost of carbon elements and electricity price**: There are price trend charts for Fugu semi - coke small materials, Yulin steam - coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 - 2025 [48][51] - **Bidding prices of double - silicon steel by Hebei representative steel mills**: There are price trend charts for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese procurement prices of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2020 - 2025 [53] - **Monthly output of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron supply**: There are charts showing the monthly output and cumulative output of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron from 2021 - 2025 [60][63] - **Import and export of manganese ore and silicon - iron**: There are charts showing the monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of silicon - iron, including the cumulative and year - on - year data [67] - **Demand for magnesium metal**: There are charts showing the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative output of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2020 - 2025 [69] - **Silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants vs. steel mills**: There are charts showing the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the regional distribution of alloy - plant silicon - iron inventory, the available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory, and its regional distribution from 2021 - 2025 [73] - **Manganese - ore inventory of alloy plants, steel mills, and ports**: There are charts showing the available days of steel - mill silicon - manganese inventory, its regional distribution, the total manganese - ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicon - manganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 - 2025 [76]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：震荡思路 | | 截至20250911，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296条(20万吨/日），其中在产225条，冷修停产71条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为16.02 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 万吨，比4日+0.38%。 周内无点火，放水浮法产线。凯里市凯荣玻璃有限公司设计产能600吨/日原产绿玻，周内转产欧洲灰；株洲醴陵旗滨玻璃有限公司三线500 | | | 吨/日海洋蓝周内正色；河南省中联玻璃有限责任公司一线600吨/日原产殴灰，周内改产黑玻。 | | | 截至20250901，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值10.4天，环比+7.8%，同比+8.3%。8月下旬至今，全国各大区多数深加工订单反馈环比未有 | | 需求 | 明显变化，多数排单3-10天居多，部分区域原片价格上移情况下，本地钢化中空产品价格持续稳定，行业整 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the situation is volatile with alternating bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, the market is mainly priced by the industry. Coke is facing a second round of price cuts, and the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend. The coke main contract should be treated as a volatile operation [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly launched a special rectification campaign for network chaos in the automotive industry. China's August PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [8]. - **Overseas Aspect**: Traders fully priced in three interest rate cuts by the Fed before the end of 2025. The US may pressure the G7 to raise tariffs on India and China for buying Russian oil. The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case in early November [8]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron - water output is 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The coke main contract should be treated as a volatile operation [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 12, the position of coke futures contracts was 53,200 lots, a net increase of 983 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 137.0, a net increase of 28.0 points. The registered warehouse receipt volume was 1,520 lots, a net increase of 310 lots. The screw - coke ratio of the futures main contract was 1.92, a net increase of 0.01 points [12][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 11, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of coking coal at the Ganqimao Port in Mongolia was 1,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. As of September 12, the coke basis was - 150.0 yuan, a decrease of 98.5 points [26]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Coking Plant**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 35 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.58%, an increase of 2.97%. The daily coke output was 53.30 tons, an increase of 2.09 tons. The coke inventory was 43.91 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 752.00 tons, a decrease of 28.95 tons. The available days of coking coal were 10.6 days, a decrease of 0.86 days [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons compared to last week. As of September 5, 2025, the total coke inventory was 860.55 tons, an increase of 6.40 tons [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The inventory at 18 ports decreased by 2.45 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 9.58 tons [40]. - **Export Situation**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. From January to August, the cumulative steel export was 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [44]. - **Real Estate Data**: In July 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of September 7, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - medium cities was 1.346 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 27.19% [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol price is currently in a low - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and focus on subsequent long - buying opportunities. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventories and insufficient restocking motivation of MTO enterprises, the low current spot price in East China and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries may help relieve the inventory pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, MA01 closed at 2387 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.83%); MA05 closed at 2390 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.79%); MA09 closed at 2213 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton (-2.30%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Among different regions, prices in Shaanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.47%), while prices in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged. Prices in other regions such as Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Inner Mongolia decreased to varying degrees [1] - **Price Difference**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 12.50 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Cost and Profit Situation - **Cost**: Coal spot prices in Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing also remained unchanged. The cost of coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged [1] - **Profit**: Methanol profits, including coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol, remained unchanged. However, the profits of Northwest MTO decreased by 82.80 yuan/ton (-636.92%), and the profits of East China MTO decreased by 34.50 yuan/ton (-6.54%). Among downstream products, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 2.75 yuan/ton (-0.60%), the profit of MTBE remained unchanged, and the profit of a certain product (possibly mis - written as "開發") increased by 10 yuan/ton (3.49%) [1] 3.3 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated weakly, opening at 2404 yuan/ton, closing at 2387 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 493,157 lots and an open interest of 775,400, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing positions [1] - **Foreign Information**: For non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - future, the reference negotiation range is +0.6 - 1%, and a few people are offering at +1%, but there is still a lack of transaction dynamics. For other Middle - East regions' methanol shipments arriving in the near - far future, the reference negotiation is at +0 - 0.5%, and recent transactions are at +0.2 - 0.5% [1] 3.4 Long - Short Logic - **Downward Pressure**: High port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland area suppress the upward space of methanol prices, and the short - term upward drive is limited [1] - **Upward Potential**: The current low spot price in East China and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries may help relieve the inventory pressure [1] 3.5 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, and the view score is 0 [1]