证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 哪些领域"反内卷"更值得期待？——2026 年牛市展望系列 3 策略专题研究 证券分析师：吴信坤 021-61761046 wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn S0980525120001 核心结论：①本次反内卷较 16 年供改背景更复杂，需求端内弱外强，供给 端受制造实力与地方非经济决策驱动。②26 年反内卷仍是经济工作重点，参 考 25 年及 16 年行情经验，反内卷行情或仍有可观上行空间。③政策干预角 度看，关注企业配合度高、地方、落地动力强的行业（如钢铁、油服工程、 水泥等）。④从行业自身周期看，关注供需两旺的景气行业（贵金属、化学 原料等），以及供需格局优化领域（养殖业、能源金属等）。 本轮反内卷背景更复杂，行情节奏相对波折。相较于供改，本轮反内卷再供 需背景上更复杂：需求端看，不同于供给侧结构性改革时期，棚改货币化等 强政策刺激快速拉动总需求，本次内需不足的特征更为突出，但外需支撑或 相对有韧性；供给端看，本次供给扩张与我国制造业实力提升有关，地方政 府"非经济"决策进一步加剧产能过剩。在此背景下，从行业结构看，本轮 呈"涉及面广、新兴行业多、民 ...

Group 1 - The A-share technology sector is experiencing fluctuations primarily due to adjustments in leading AI stocks in the US market, along with the year-end institutional fund yield lock-in and a decrease in leveraged trading momentum during a policy vacuum period [1] - The technology sector is significantly influenced by US AI leaders, with recent discussions about overvaluation leading to market volatility and a decline in stock prices, despite Nvidia's better-than-expected performance [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the export tax rebate policy for battery products, which is a strong measure to prevent "involution" and promote competitiveness for leading Chinese battery companies in the global market [3] - The white liquor industry is at a "five-bottom stage," indicating a potential turning point for the sector as capital market expectations align with the upcoming Spring Festival, presenting a bottoming opportunity for investment [3] Group 3 - A shift in capital flow between stocks and bonds has begun, with significant redemptions in bond funds and increased subscriptions for equity ETFs, indicating a potential "spring rally" in the market [5] - Domestic copper prices have surpassed 100,000 yuan per ton, signaling strong market dynamics and a potential new upward trend in copper prices by 2026 due to supply-demand expectations [6] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index is adjusting in line with the Federal Reserve's announcement of no interest rate cuts in January, with a potential for increased market activity as risk appetite improves due to currency appreciation and supportive policies [12] - The ChiNext Index is experiencing sideways movement, with recent market interest focused on gold and rare metals, suggesting opportunities may arise as previous hot sectors re-emerge [12]

Market Overview - In Q4 2025, market volatility increased, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks ending the year amidst fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.22%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.08%. The Hang Seng Index dropped by 4.56%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 6.72% [1][18]. Sector Performance - Despite the overall market performance being lackluster, there was a stark contrast within sectors. The technology growth sectors, represented by AI computing power and semiconductors, performed exceptionally well, while industries such as real estate, pharmaceuticals, and computers faced pressure [1][19]. Fund Manager Strategies - Star fund managers like Fu Pengbo and Li Xiaoxing achieved significant excess returns in Q4 2025, with Fu's Ruiyuan Growth Value Fund and Li's Yinhua Small Cap Select both rising over 60% for the year, driven by heavy investments in AI computing power and semiconductors [2][19]. - Balanced allocation funds, such as Zhu Shaoxing's Fuguo Tianhui Select Growth A, showed stable performance with over 20% annual growth, benefiting from diversified holdings across finance, consumption, and manufacturing sectors [2][19]. Technology Sector Focus - Fu Pengbo's Ruiyuan Growth Value Fund increased its allocation to data center liquid cooling and related companies, with the top ten holdings now concentrated at 70.38%. The fund's top three holdings include Xinyi Solar, Shenghong Technology, and CATL [4][22]. - Li Xiaoxing's Yinhua Small Cap Select emphasized AI hardware innovation and application investment opportunities, with seven of its top ten holdings in the semiconductor industry, reflecting a shift towards advanced process breakthroughs and domestic chip investments [23][24]. Traditional Value Sector - Fund managers like Zhang Kun, Liu Yanhun, and Ge Lan continued to focus on traditional assets such as consumption and pharmaceuticals. Zhang's E-Fund Blue Chip Select maintained a stable stock position, emphasizing confidence in the long-term prospects of the Chinese consumer market [24][25]. - Ge Lan's China Europe Medical Health A faced net value pressure in Q4 2025, with all top ten holdings experiencing negative returns, despite previous positive performance [26][27]. Policy and Market Sentiment - Fund managers noted that "anti-involution" policies are becoming key variables affecting corporate fundamentals, with expectations for improved business environments and competition dynamics [31]. - Despite market rebounds and rising valuations, many managers believe that equity assets still hold significant allocation value, particularly in light of changes in traditional high-yield channels [32]. Importance of Stock Selection - The emphasis on stock selection has intensified, with fund managers highlighting the need for deep research and careful selection of companies with core advantages, especially in a concentrated market environment [33].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the active trading and significant inflow of funds into the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570), which has reached a new high in both scale and shares since its inception [1] - As of January 28, the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF has seen a continuous net inflow of funds over the past nine days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 97.09 million, totaling 377 million [1] - The chemical industry is facing a dual backdrop of macro oil price fluctuations and profound domestic industrial changes, with investment opportunities shifting towards policy-driven and structural improvements [1] Group 2 - The management and custody fee rates for the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF are 0.15% and 0.05% per year, significantly lower than similar ETF products in the petrochemical sector, which helps reduce costs for investors [2] - The ETF includes major companies in the petrochemical and basic chemical industries, tracking the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, which reflects a "dumbbell strategy" in the petrochemical sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Silicon iron futures experienced significant fluctuations, with the main contract reaching 5744.00 CNY/ton, marking a substantial increase of 2.32% [1] Market Data Summary - On January 28, the number of silicon iron futures warehouse receipts recorded was 8710, a decrease of 15 from the previous trading day; over the past week, warehouse receipts have decreased by 1034, a decline of 10.61%; in the last month, the total decrease in warehouse receipts was 3050, representing a drop of 25.94% [2] - The cash ex-factory price for 72 silicon iron natural blocks in the main production area was reported at 5250-5350 CNY/ton, while the price for 75 silicon iron was 5750-5850 CNY/ton [2] - As of January 28, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 246,600 long positions and 265,100 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.93. The net position was -18,500, a decrease of 559 from the previous day [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyuan Futures noted that the supply and demand for alloys remained relatively stable, with low silicon iron production and inventory levels. The manganese silicon supply and demand showed a month-on-month recovery, indicating a healthy overall fundamental outlook. However, the black series lacks expected drivers, leading to a narrow and weak fluctuation in double silicon. It is anticipated that the electricity price for January in the northwest will increase by approximately 0.03 CNY, raising costs by over 100 CNY, providing short-term support for alloy costs, with a bias towards a corrective upward trend [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures reported a rebound in prices during the day. Although electricity costs in some production areas have decreased, the price of Lantan has slightly increased, and the main production areas continue to operate at a loss. The demand side for pig iron production remains at a seasonal low. Export demand remains above 30,000 tons, with marginal impacts being minimal. The production of metallic magnesium has increased month-on-month, with secondary demand showing marginal improvement, indicating overall demand resilience. Silicon iron supply has not changed significantly, with a slight decrease in inventory. Prices are influenced by oversupply and the ongoing concerns regarding "anti-involution," suggesting a primary strategy of shorting on rebounds [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a seasonal off - season with weakening spot volume and price, and the industry contradiction is not prominent. Unilateral trading can be treated with an oscillatory mindset, and hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for spot - futures positions to enter the market. Spot - futures stop - loss hedging can still be rolled [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are mainly oscillating. The supply is high while the demand is weak. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the risk of a subsequent decline is relatively large [6]. - The first round of coke price increase was finally delayed. The downstream is still restocking before the Spring Festival, which provides some support for the spot, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The first - round price increase may be regarded as a signal to sell goods [7]. - In the short term, iron ore is in an oscillatory and relatively strong pattern due to the expected resumption of production and restocking by steel mills. In the long term, the pressure from port inventory is obvious [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On January 28, the closing prices of far - month contracts for RB2610, HC2610, J2609, and JM2609 were 3169.00 yuan/ton, 3301.00 yuan/ton, 1755.00 yuan/ton, and 1214.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 12.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, 2.50 yuan, and 8.50 yuan, and percentage changes of - 0.38%, - 0.30%, 0.14%, and 0.70% respectively. The closing prices of near - month contracts for RB2605, HC2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3123.00 yuan/ton, 3280.00 yuan/ton, 1684.00 yuan/ton, and 1134.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan, - 13.00 yuan, - 2.00 yuan, and 5.00 yuan, and percentage changes of - 0.32%, - 0.39%, - 0.12%, and 0.44% respectively [1]. - The cross - month spreads on January 28 for RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, J2605 - 2609, and JM2605 - 2609 were - 46.00 yuan/ton, - 21.00 yuan/ton, 18.50 yuan/ton, and - 80.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 2.00 yuan, - 2.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and - 1.50 yuan [1]. - For the spreads, ratios, and profits of the main contracts on January 28, the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 157.00 yuan/ton, the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.99, the coal to coke ratio was 1.48, the rebar disk profit was - 68.70 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 175.12 yuan/ton, with changes of - 6.00 yuan, 0.02, - 0.01, - 2.75 yuan, and - 7.94 yuan respectively [1]. Spot Market - On January 28, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3230.00 yuan/ton, 3140.00 yuan/ton, 3410.00 yuan/ton, 2930.00 yuan/ton, and 102.70 respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and - 0.65 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - to - finished - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB on January 28 were 3260.00 yuan/ton, 3280.00 yuan/ton, 3270.00 yuan/ton, 300.00 yuan/ton, and 792.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan, - 20.00 yuan, - 40.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, and - 5.00 yuan [1]. - The spot prices of Qingdao Port Super Special Powder, Ganqimao'du Coking Fine Coal, Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Coke (out - of - warehouse), and Qingdao Port PB on January 28 were 667.00 yuan/ton, 1235.00 yuan/ton, 1430.00 yuan/ton, and 793.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and - 5.00 yuan [1]. - The basis on January 28 for HC main contract, RB main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract were - 20.00 yuan/ton, 107.00 yuan/ton, - 111.37 yuan/ton, and 130.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 1.00 yuan, - 7.00 yuan, - 16.00 yuan, and - 18.00 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, use a unilateral interval oscillatory approach; conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive hedging or use option strategies [8]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, industrial customers should conduct hedging when prices are high [8]. - For coking coal and coke, sell the spot at an appropriate time and wait for opportunities to short the futures after the price rises [8]. - For iron ore, consider going long in the short term and shorting at the pressure level in the long term [8].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) sector has shown strong performance in January due to multiple factors including the promotion of space photovoltaic themes, the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, and the recovery of component prices [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on January 28, emphasizing that "anti-involution" is a major issue for the PV industry, and various departments should work together to promote healthy competition and rational development [1] - The PV industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, with "anti-involution" governance expected to optimize the competitive ecosystem and focus resources on technological innovation and product upgrades [1] - The China Securities PV Industry Index has increased by 206.55% from its base date (December 31, 2012) to January 13, 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 Index and the New Energy Index, which rose by 91.97% and 179.28%, respectively [2] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - Policies are being introduced to address pricing and capacity issues, including discussions on benchmark pricing mechanisms to prevent sales below cost and measures to consolidate capacity in the polysilicon segment [4] - Non-European and American overseas markets are becoming the main source of global PV demand, with the space photovoltaic sector benefiting from the acceleration of low-orbit satellite constellation construction [4] - New technologies such as Bifacial Cell (BC) and the use of low-cost metal pastes are expected to reduce costs in the PV industry [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Bosera Photovoltaic ETF (subscription code: 560313) is set to launch on January 26, 2026, with a subscription period until February 6, allowing investors to easily invest in leading companies within the PV industry chain [1][4] - The ETF closely tracks the China Securities PV Industry Index, which includes up to 50 representative listed companies involved in the PV industry chain [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **space photovoltaic** industry and its potential impact on demand, as well as the **traditional lithium battery** sector in the context of global electricity shortages [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Space Photovoltaics**: - Considered a promising area to stimulate demand, but the realization of its potential is expected to be slow [1][5]. - The U.S.-China dynamics suggest that companies like SpaceX are advancing in satellite energy autonomy, which could address electricity shortages in U.S. data centers [5]. - The high demand logic for space photovoltaics is acknowledged, but there is a preference to engage in sectors with genuine demand and real orders rather than just supply-side logic [5]. - **Traditional Lithium Battery Sector**: - Expected to recover faster than the photovoltaic sector due to supply-demand dynamics and global electricity shortages [2][4]. - **Challenges in Domestic Space Industry**: - The domestic space sector faces significant hurdles, particularly in the area of **reusable rockets**, which limits demand even if recovery is successful [6]. - The domestic market is currently more sentiment-driven rather than based on consumer demand [7]. - **Robotics and Automation**: - Progress in humanoid robots is anticipated to outpace developments in space computing, despite current limitations in functionality [8]. - There is a recognition of a long-term rigid demand for robotics in both the U.S. and China [8][10]. - Tesla's advancements in training robots in virtual environments and factories could lead to significant industry growth, potentially mirroring the electric vehicle market's expansion [11]. Additional Important Insights - The domestic robotics sector struggles with autonomy and requires extensive training [10]. - The current investment landscape is influenced by regulatory adjustments and market dynamics, particularly concerning the T-chain and its relation to domestic chains [11]. - The introduction of Level 4 autonomous driving technology is progressing, but the complexity of domestic scenarios may slow down its implementation compared to the U.S. [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the potential and challenges within the space photovoltaic and traditional lithium battery sectors, as well as the robotics industry.

2026年01月29日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属夜盘走强，伦敦金逼近 5500 美元/盎司，伦敦银逼近 120 美元/盎司。 基本面：美联储如期暂停降息，暗示不急行动，但美联储主席人选沃勒支持再降 25 基点；鲍威尔表示加息并 非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设，关税通胀预计今年年中消退；贝森特称美国一贯奉行强美元政策，"绝对 不会"干预汇市支撑日元；日本周三拍卖的 40 年期国债投标倍数达到 2.76 倍，创下自去年 3 月以来的最高 水平，拍卖结果公布后 40 年期国债收益率下跌 2 个基点至 3.915%。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流入 5 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1115.8 吨，-2 吨；上期所黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1086.5 吨， 维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 12803 吨，-107.7 吨；上期所白银库存为 508 吨，-35.9 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15636 吨，-211 吨；金交所白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨；伦敦 12 月末白银库 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting focused on addressing the "involution" issue in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts among various departments to promote healthy competition and rational development in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Meeting Objectives - The meeting was chaired by Li Lecheng, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology, to implement the decisions of the Central Committee and the State Council regarding the photovoltaic industry [2]. - Key enterprises and the photovoltaic industry association were invited to provide suggestions on combating "involution" in the industry [2]. Group 2: Strategies for Industry Governance - The meeting highlighted the importance of using a combination of capacity regulation, standard setting, quality supervision, price enforcement, anti-monopoly risk prevention, intellectual property protection, and technological advancement to guide the industry back to a path of healthy competition [3]. - The photovoltaic industry association is expected to actively fulfill its role in promoting industry self-discipline and innovating methods to eliminate "involution" competition [3].