赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 摘要 事件： 2025年3月5日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告。 一、主要经济目标设定更务实，相关指标设计讨论充分 主要经济目标设定更加"务实"，对相关指标设计讨论充分。 2025年经济增长预期目标为5%左右，"既是 稳就业、防风险、惠民生的需要，也有经济增长潜力和有利条件支撑"；报告也提出"实现这些目标很不 容易，必须付出艰苦努力"。基于5%左右的经济增长目标，政策部署更加灵活，报告指出将"根据形势变 化动态调整政策，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性"，执行层面注重"加强上下联动、横向协 作"。 对可能遇到的困难与挑战，报告表述清醒客观，特别提及关税、内需和执行层面问题。 报告指出"多边贸 易体制受阻，关税壁垒增多"等问题。内部发展方面，报告梳理三大矛盾：需求端"有效需求不足"的结构 性问题，供给端 "部分企业生产经营困难，账款拖欠问题仍较突出"，民生领域"群众就业增收面临压 力"等。同时，报告特别提及"一些地方基层财政困难"，也直指"一些工作协调配合不够，有的政策落地偏 慢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes a stable yet progressive economic approach, maintaining a GDP growth target of around 5% and a budget deficit target of approximately 4%, indicating a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy aimed at promoting the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy - The fiscal policy is set to be more aggressive, with a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [2]. - The monetary policy will focus on optimizing tools to support the real estate and stock markets [2]. - The budget deficit target of around 4% is a record high, with specific allocations for long-term special bonds and local special bonds being raised [2]. Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion - The primary task for 2025 is to expand domestic demand, particularly addressing the consumption shortfall [2]. - Key measures include issuing 300 billion yuan in ultra-long special bonds for "old-for-new" exchanges and promoting new types of consumption in digital, green, and intelligent sectors [2]. Group 3: Technological Development - The focus on new productive forces emphasizes the digital economy and advanced manufacturing, with new industry priorities including biomanufacturing, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G [3]. - The report highlights the importance of digital transformation and the cultivation of digital service providers [3]. Group 4: Capital Market Reform - The report outlines reforms aimed at increasing medium- and long-term capital inflows into the market, along with optimizing IPO and merger and acquisition processes [3]. Group 5: Real Estate Policy - New measures in real estate include reducing restrictive policies and granting local authorities greater autonomy in managing existing housing stock [3]. Group 6: Population and Social Policies - The report addresses community-based elderly care and mentions the introduction of childcare subsidies [4]. Group 7: State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The establishment of a strategic mission evaluation system for state-owned enterprises is highlighted [5].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Two Sessions in 2025 are expected to bring significant opportunities in the capital market, with analysts expressing optimism about China's asset attractiveness and focusing on economic growth targets, fiscal policy, and monetary policy [1] Macroeconomic Focus - Economic Growth: Most institutions predict a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a weighted average growth target calculated at 5.3% based on local targets [2] - Inflation Target: CPI targets are expected to be lowered to around 2% for 2025, down from previous years' targets of approximately 3% [3] Fiscal Policy Focus - Deficit Rate: Analysts anticipate an increase in the deficit rate to around 4% for 2025, with new special bond issuance expected to rise to approximately 4.2 to 4.5 trillion yuan [3] - Spending Direction: Fiscal policy is expected to focus on promoting consumption and driving technological innovation, with measures such as supporting trade-in programs to boost consumer spending [4] Monetary Policy Focus - Monetary Policy Stance: The prevailing view is that monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, but these actions may be delayed until after the Two Sessions [5][6] Capital Market Investment Opportunities - Technology Sector: The technology growth sector, particularly around AI and robotics, is expected to remain a hotspot, with increasing attractiveness of Chinese AI assets [6] - Consumer Sector: With enhanced fiscal policy efforts, consumer growth is anticipated to accelerate, supported by government measures like vehicle purchase subsidies [7] - Capital Market Reforms: The Two Sessions may lead to further improvements in the capital market's "1+N" institutional framework, promoting mergers and acquisitions and fostering a healthy market environment [8]