Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, which aligns with market expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 2 to keep the interest rates unchanged [3]. - The dissenting votes came from two members appointed by former President Trump, who favored a 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against a decision [4]. - The FOMC noted that while the unemployment rate remains low and the job market is stable, inflation is still slightly elevated [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The FOMC acknowledged a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year, suggesting that continued trends could provide grounds for future rate cuts [4]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the high level of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and stated that the Fed's inflation and employment targets still face risks [4]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Future Guidance - There has been significant political pressure from the White House for the Fed to lower interest rates, with Trump recently visiting the Fed's renovation site to exert influence [4]. - Powell did not provide guidance on a potential rate cut in September, indicating that the Fed would consider upcoming employment and inflation data before making any decisions [5]. Group 4: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, S&P 500 down 0.12%, and Nasdaq up 0.15% [7]. - Major tech stocks experienced varied performance, with Meta reporting strong Q2 earnings, leading to a nearly 12% increase in its stock price post-announcement [8]. - The copper market reacted negatively to Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper products, resulting in an 18% drop in copper prices [9].

Economic Data Support and Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is supported by economic data, with Q2 GDP annualized growth reaching 3%, significantly exceeding expectations and reversing Q1's 0.5% contraction [2] - The growth was primarily driven by net exports contributing 5 percentage points to GDP, rather than domestic demand, indicating a weakening of real demand momentum [2] - Private domestic final sales grew only 1.2%, the lowest since late 2022, suggesting a gradual decline in underlying demand [2] Inflation and Employment Market Insights - Overall inflation data has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but the core PCE price index remains at a high level of 2.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - Structural inflation pressures are evident, with furniture prices rising 1% and appliance prices increasing by 1.9%, suggesting that tariff effects are gradually transmitting to consumer prices [3] - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.1%, but there are signs of divergence, with youth unemployment rising to 5.8%, the highest in a decade, and initial jobless claims increasing [3][4] Divergent Views Among Federal Reserve Officials - Waller's dissent is based on concerns about the labor market, indicating that economic momentum has significantly slowed and risks to achieving full employment are rising [4] - Bowman’s dissent focuses on inflation trends, suggesting that inflation is steadily returning to the 2% target and that the actual impact of trade policies on inflation is minimal [5] - Both officials emphasize the need for a cautious approach to potential rate cuts, reflecting differing views on the economic outlook and inflation dynamics [4][5] Market Expectations and Rate Cut Possibilities - Following the July meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut have cooled, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 64% to 45% [7] - The upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining the likelihood of a rate cut, with indicators such as core PCE inflation and unemployment rates being closely monitored [8] - The Federal Reserve is currently divided into three camps regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, reflecting the complexity of the economic landscape [7] Policy Direction and Upcoming Events - The July meeting marks a significant evolution in the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, with two officials dissenting for the first time since 1993, highlighting internal divisions [9] - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to provide important guidance on future monetary policy, with historical precedents indicating its significant influence on market expectations [10] - The next FOMC meeting on September 16 will be a critical observation point, with substantial debate on whether to initiate a rate cut cycle [10]

香港金管局称，目前港美息差对套息交易仍具吸引力，因此令港汇继续贴近7.85水平，但与此同时，近 日股票相关的港元资金需求甚殷，为港汇提供一定支持。往后视乎港元资金供求变化，以及其他不确定 因素包括美联储货币政策和美息走向、股票投资市场气氛、外围金融市场及环球资金流向等，弱方兑换 保证可能会再度被触发。届时金管局将按照联汇制度买入港元沽出美元，银行体系总结余将相应下降， 而港元拆息将会逐步上升。 香港金管局表示，美国未来减息的幅度和步伐存在颇大的不确定性，而香港目前的利率环境因为上述各 种变数亦可能出现变化，市民在作出置业、投资或借贷决定时，需充分考虑港元息率上升的可能性，并 管理相关风险。金管局会继续密切监察市场变化，维持货币及金融稳定。 当地时间7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。 香港金管局7月31日表示，美联储维持息率不变的决定符合市场预期。然而，市场普遍认为美联储未来 的减息步伐仍然存在较大的不确定性，视乎美国通胀和就业数据的走势，其中关税措施以及财政政策等 对经济活动的影响尚有待观察。 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal divisions persisting. Powell's remarks were seen as hawkish, reducing the probability of a September rate cut, leading to declines in US stocks and gold, and significant rebounds in the US dollar and Treasury yields. The US economic growth slowdown in the first half was removed from the statement, and no signal of a September rate cut was given. The US Q2 GDP data rebounded more than expected, but the growth center has shifted down overall. Tariffs are becoming a slow - moving variable, and the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in late August is important. The medium - and long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Refined copper being excluded from tariffs and the cooling of the anti - involution sentiment in China dragged down silver, which is expected to follow gold in a weak oscillation in the short term [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Focus on Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, and Powell said it was too early to determine a September rate cut [2] - The initial annualized Q2 real GDP in the US increased by 3% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding the expected 2.4%. The initial quarter - on - quarter increase in real personal consumption expenditure was 1.4%, slightly lower than the expected 1.5%. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3% [2] - The number of ADP employed people in the US in July increased by 104,000, exceeding the estimate of 75,000 [2] - The US Treasury plans to set the quarterly refinancing bond issuance at $125 billion, in line with expectations, and expects bond issuance to remain stable for at least the next few quarters [2] - Trump said India will pay a 25% tariff and a fine related to purchasing Russian military equipment and energy starting from August 1 [2] Price Logic - The Fed's inaction in the interest - rate meeting, combined with the hawkish remarks, led to market reactions. The Q2 GDP data showed a significant impact from tariffs, and the growth center has shifted down. The main contract of COMEX gold changed to 2512, causing price - spread fluctuations. The support level of spot gold at 3250 should be watched. The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs and the cooling of anti - involution sentiment in China dragged down silver [3] Outlook - The weekly range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between 3250 and 3450, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between 36 and 40 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - FOMC resolution is moderate, still emphasizing economic uncertainty. The federal funds rate remains unchanged as expected. There is a certain degree of divergence in views within the Fed, and the market price reaction is relatively small after the resolution is issued [4]. - The press - conference speech is hawkish, strengthening the view of not setting a rate - cut path. Powell indicates that it's inappropriate to use the previous rate - cut path prediction, and the market starts to price in no rate cut in September [4]. - In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may show a bear - flattening trend, and the US dollar may strengthen. In the medium - to - long term, factors may cause the US dollar index to decline, and the downward direction of bond yields in China remains unchanged [4]. Summary by Directory 1. What to focus on in the Fed's interest - rate meeting? 1.1 FOMC resolution is moderate, still emphasizing economic uncertainty - The description of economic growth in the fundamental assessment is adjusted to indicate that the Fed defines the US GDP growth in H1 2025 as a slowdown [7]. - The description in the risk assessment shows that the Fed believes the economic outlook is not clearer and needs more data for the next step [7]. - Two Fed governors oppose the resolution, indicating differences within the Fed on inflation expectations and policy goals [7]. - The market has a relatively mild immediate reaction after the resolution is released [10]. 1.2 The press - conference speech is hawkish, strengthening the view of not setting a rate - cut path - Powell believes it's inappropriate to use the previous rate - cut path prediction [13]. - He thinks the inflation transmission path of tariffs is not clear, and the impact on consumption terminals needs more information [14]. - He believes the labor market is roughly balanced and consistent with maximum employment [14]. - The market starts to price in no rate cut in September after his speech [15]. 2. How to view the market? - In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may show a bear - flattening trend, with the two - year US Treasury rate expected to fluctuate between 3.8% - 4.2% and the 10 - year US Treasury rate between 4.25% - 4.65% [18]. - In the short term, the US dollar index may maintain strength and rise above 100 due to tariff negotiation details and expected strong yields of US dollar assets [18]. - In the medium - to - long term, factors may cause the US dollar index to decline, and the downward direction of bond yields in China is determined by domestic economic and policy rhythms [20].

本次议息会议最引人注目的焦点，莫过于美联储内部罕见的意见分歧。这是30多年来，首次有两位美联储理事在利率决议中投下反对票。这一不同寻 常的现象，被广泛解读为美国总统近期公开向美联储施压所产生的影响。 【环球网财经综合报道】当地时间7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变，符合市场广泛预期。这是美联储今年连续第五次决定维持利率不变，显示出其在应对通胀和支撑经济增长之间寻求平衡的 审慎姿态。 在会后发布的政策声明中，美联储对当前美国经济形势的描述略显谨慎。声明指出，今年上半年美国经济增长"有所放缓"，并暗示若这一趋势持续， 可能为未来降息提供依据。声明同时强调，经济前景不确定性仍然高企，通胀和就业目标均面临风险。分析人士普遍认为，这种看似矛盾的表述，恰 恰反映了美联储当前的核心困境：尽管经济增长动能减弱为降息提供了理由，但通胀压力和就业市场的韧性仍构成不确定性，因此美联储在获得更明 确的路径信号前，不愿轻易开启降息周期。 据悉，投下反对票的是美联储负责监管事务的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）和理事克里 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - In July, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, citing a "tight balance" in the labor market and potential inflation risks from high tariffs[3][6] - The Fed's assessment of economic uncertainty focuses on rising inflation impacting real GDP growth rather than nominal output or employment issues[3][6] - The threshold for rate cuts remains high, with no clear indication of a September rate cut despite market speculation[3][10] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation risks are primarily driven by tariffs, which are seen as a short-term shock, but the long-term impact on the economy requires further evaluation[3][9] - The Fed acknowledges that the current inflationary pressures may just be the beginning of the effects from tariffs on goods inflation[3][9] - The labor market remains solid, with no signs of weakness, but there are downside risks to economic growth[3][11] Group 3: Market Implications - Improved risk appetite and economic outlook may continue to support U.S. equities and long-term Treasury yields, with the dollar index potentially returning to the 100 mark[3][12] - Emerging market assets, excluding China, may face valuation risks due to high tariffs and external demand pressures, despite some trade agreements[3][12]

Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates at 4.25-4.5% with a 9-2 vote, signaling a hawkish stance due to inflation concerns[1] - Powell indicated that the distance to achieve inflation targets is greater than that for employment, suggesting a need for restrictive policy rates[1] - The market now expects the likelihood of a rate cut in September to be delayed until Q4 2025, with 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields projected to rise to 4.05% and 4.5% respectively in August and September[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Projections - Economic growth is showing signs of moderation, with consumer spending beginning to slow down, and GDP growth expected to be revised downwards[1] - The labor market remains balanced, but there are signs of downward risks with a slight decline in private sector job opportunities[1] - Inflation remains a concern, with tariffs beginning to impact goods inflation, while service sector inflation shows improvement[1] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut has decreased to 47%, with an average expectation of 1.48 rate cuts for the year[1] - The market anticipates a new round of monetary easing after the appointment of a new Fed chair, with expectations for three rate cuts in 2026 potentially increasing to four or more[1] - The overall strategy suggests that the U.S. Treasury yields may initially rise before declining later in the year as the market adjusts to new monetary policies[1]

3456789:;<=>2025-07-31 !"#$$%&'$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 高聪 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"# 7 $%&'()*+,-. ——!"#$%&'(/ !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 7 月 31 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 7 月利率决议，宣布将利率维持在 4.25%-4.50%。 1）美联储将对经济形势的描述从"继续稳步扩张"调整为"上半年经济活动增长有所放 缓"，反映对经济降温的认可； 2）美联储删除了"经济前景的不确定性有所下降"的表述，强调不确定性仍处于较高水 平，语气趋于审慎。 &'"( n !"# 7 $%&'( 2025 年 7 月，美联储维持联邦基金利率在 4.25%至 4.50%不变，符合市场预期。政策声 明中承认上半年经济活动增长有所放缓，同时强调经济前景仍具高度不确定性，措辞 相比 6 月会议更趋谨慎。此次会议中，两位理事主张降息 25 个基点但 ...

Economic Growth - The US GDP for Q2 2025 showed a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of +3.0%, reversing from a previous decline of -0.5% and exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +2.6% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast of +2.9%[1] - The core PCE for the same period increased by +2.5%, surpassing the expected +2.3% and down from +3.5% in the previous quarter[1] Structural Analysis - The significant GDP growth was driven by a reversal of the "import surge & inventory accumulation" seen in Q1, with the contribution from goods imports rebounding from -4.84% to +5.02% and inventory changes dropping from +2.59% to -3.17%[1] - The Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP), a core GDP indicator, grew by only +1.2%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of decline and indicating weak internal economic growth[1] Inventory Dynamics - Inventory changes shifted from $160.5 billion to -$26 billion, reflecting a transition from active inventory accumulation by producers and wholesalers to inventory reduction, while retail inventories continued to grow albeit at a slower pace[1] - If demand does not absorb retail inventories, the likelihood of businesses actively restocking in Q3 may be limited[1] Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to the risk of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in September, which could lead to an increase in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index rising back to the 100-105 range[1] - The current market is trading under the assumption of "strengthening growth leading to delayed rate cuts," and if upcoming employment data reflects similar trends, the probability of a rate cut in September may decrease, tightening financial conditions and increasing downward pressure on the economy[1] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected policy actions from Trump, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[1]