11:01 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构:美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1050.83 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持仓变化 更新时间:2025-12-11 1.060 1.050 1.040 1,030 1.020 1.010 2025-10-22 2025-11-13 2025-12-05 EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 今天是12月12日,全球最大黄金ETF -- SPD … 展开 ( C 基本面消息，周四公布的数据显示，美国上周美国初请失业金人数大幅上升至23.6万人，远高于预期，疲弱的劳动力数据推动了黄金的避险需求。金价在 触及日内低点4204美元后强劲反弹，突破近期区间。 具体来看，美国劳工部数据显示，截至12月6日当周的初请失业金人数升至23.6万人，较前一周上修后的19.2万人大幅上升，单周增幅创下2020年以来最 大。不过截至11月29日当周的续请失业金人数从193.7万人降至183.8万人，为八个月低位，显示长期失业状况出现一定稳定迹象。 分析指出，截至12月6日当周的初请失业金人数意外跳升，成为改变市场情绪的催化剂，进一步推动投资者押注美联储将被迫采取更宽松的政策立场，从 而推动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro has strengthened against the US Dollar, rising over 1.2% from its recent low, marking the third consecutive week of gains, with market attention focused on short-term trends and key resistance levels [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD exchange rate briefly broke through a short-term resistance level before experiencing a correction of approximately 0.6% over four days. Following the Federal Reserve's policy announcement, the rate rebounded nearly 1.5% from December's low and is currently testing the upper boundary of a price channel formed at the end of November [3][4]. - The exchange rate is approaching a critical overlap of two technical positions: the daily closing price level corresponding to the October high and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the annual high. This overlap is located between 1.1731 and 1.1747, with 1.1747 being a significant observation point. A daily closing price above this level would indicate potential resistance zones at 1.1794 to 1.1813 and 1.1866 [5][6]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.1679, which corresponds to the 100% extension of the previous upward movement, and the next support range of 1.1634 to 1.1641, which includes the November high closing price and the weekly opening price [5][6]. Upcoming Events - The market anticipates several important events next week, including the US non-farm payroll data for November and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision. These events are likely to influence market expectations and could lead to short-term fluctuations in the Euro/USD exchange rate [6].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 the first 流的衍生品综合服务商 DATE 入 期 市 市 服 热线 官 方 网 站 需 有 客 译 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 0）中长朗观点。中长期来看，美联储仍处于宽松周期、全球地缘不确定性持续、美国债务不可持续和大国博弈加剧将长期增加美元信用网险，全球央行机构勾居 民的配置需求延续等,黄金中长期重心大概率继续上移,建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 本我告中的偏息均源于公元可获得的资料，国资货分文推商工靠。但不对上这信息的准确性及完整性的任何保证。本者告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别发资者持放的投资目标、仅资机动需要，投资 者:自行列颐本报告中的任河意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。据此:投资，责任自负。本报告似向推定客户推选。未经国贸联货投资许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为您的成团贸雅货的专贸 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 IIC EN B 4月1日 1 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut signals deeper internal divisions and uncertainties regarding future economic conditions, rather than just a routine monetary policy adjustment [1][2][6] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September and the sixth since the current easing cycle began in September 2024 [1] - The decision was passed with a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, indicating significant dissent within the Federal Reserve, the first occurrence of dissenting votes since 2019 [1][2] Group 2: Internal Divisions and Economic Outlook - There is a notable split among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with 8 out of 19 predicting more than one cut next year, while 7 believe rate cuts should stop entirely, and 3 even suggest the need for rate hikes [2] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged a rare conflict of dual objectives: rising inflation and declining employment, indicating a challenging environment for monetary policy [1][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the Fed's decision, major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones gaining nearly 500 points, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.153% [3] - The Fed's optimistic economic growth forecast for 2026 was raised to 2.3%, despite concerns about the labor market and potential overestimation of official employment data [3][4] Group 4: Political Implications and Future Projections - The potential appointment of a new Fed Chair, who may have a dovish stance, raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the impact of political pressure on monetary policy [4][6] - Analysts suggest that the Fed may still have room for two rate cuts in 2026, potentially lowering rates to around 3%, but this will be heavily influenced by political dynamics [4][5] Group 5: Global Impact - The Fed's decisions have global implications, as a slowdown in rate cuts could provide other developed countries' central banks with more policy flexibility [5] - Emerging markets may benefit from a period of moderate dollar liquidity, but their asset performance will depend on internal growth dynamics and geopolitical risk mitigation [5]

Group 1 - The market reaction to the Fed's commentary was influenced by prior positioning, with expectations for a more hawkish stance than what was delivered [2][3] - The Federal Reserve aims to achieve a neutral policy rate, with estimates ranging from 2.75% to 3.75%, indicating uncertainty in the exact target [3][4] - The Fed remains data-dependent, with upcoming payroll and CPI reports expected to impact their decision-making [5][6] Group 2 - Since the Fed began cutting rates over a year ago, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased, highlighting a dislocation in market expectations [8][10] - Treasury yields have generally been lower year-to-date, with the U.S. performing well among developed markets [9] - The persistence of high real yields, despite rate cuts, suggests market confidence in structural growth and productivity improvements [11][12]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, with a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, estimated at around 87.4% [1] - Historically, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve tends to weaken the US dollar, which supports an increase in gold prices, providing significant investment opportunities for astute investors [3] - Gold trading platform Jinrong China emphasizes its rapid trading system, which allows investors to capitalize on market opportunities quickly, especially during volatile periods [3][5] Group 2 - Jinrong China's core competitive advantage lies in its zero-delay order execution, utilizing an STP direct trading model that ensures optimal pricing and immediate market access [5] - The Jinrong China app offers advanced trading features, including real-time data synchronization with MT4 and MT5 accounts, technical analysis, and automated risk management tools [6] - Jinrong China's trading system has received international recognition, winning the "Best Trade Execution Broker" award, reflecting its technological strength and the trust of millions of global investors [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.50% and 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 3 in favor of the rate cut, indicating significant internal dissent, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut and two members preferring to maintain the current rate [3] - This rate cut is part of a broader strategy to normalize policy and stabilize the labor market while aiming to bring inflation back towards the 2% target as tariff impacts diminish [3] Group 2: Political Reactions - President Trump criticized the rate cut as insufficient, suggesting that a larger reduction was warranted, reflecting ongoing tensions between the administration and the Federal Reserve [2][4] Group 3: Economic Context and Expert Analysis - Experts noted that the uncertainty in economic outlook and the recent government shutdown have delayed key economic data releases, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5] - Analysts highlighted the potential for increased internal divisions within the Fed and the challenges posed by conflicting economic data, global growth slowdown, and geopolitical risks, raising questions about the effectiveness of the rate cut [5]

美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.50% and 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year and the sixth since September 2024 [1] - The decision was influenced by a moderate expansion in economic activity, a slowdown in job growth, and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, with inflation remaining at a high level [3][5] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the high inflation is partly due to U.S. tariff policies, and the normalization of monetary policy aims to stabilize the labor market and guide inflation back towards the 2% target [6] Group 2 - There is a notable division among Fed officials regarding the impact of tariff policies on inflation and the potential for further rate cuts in December, with deteriorating employment data raising expectations for additional cuts [5][10] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with a surprising decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, the largest drop in two and a half years, and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% in June to 4.4% in September [12] - The decision to cut rates faced significant internal dissent, with 9 out of 12 members voting in favor, while 3 opposed, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019 [12]

港股通周三净流出10.2亿港元，其中小米集团(01810.HK)净流入最多，达6.2亿港元，其次是农业银行(01288.HK)。另 一方面，盈富基金(02800.HK)录得最大净流出，达15.6亿港元，其次是腾讯控股(00700.HK)。 美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从3.75%至4.00%下调至3.50%至3.75%，同时启动 短期美国国债的购买。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后强调，"下次会加息"不是任何人的基本假设，就业增长实际或被高 估，自四月以来就业增长可能已经略微转负，劳动力市场仍在持续、逐步降温，可能只是比此前预期的降温幅度略微 更温和一些。通胀方面，他表示关税影响明年料逐渐消退。他说，目前利率所处位置使美联储能够耐心等待，观察经 济接下来将如何演变。 ...