Core Viewpoint - The March EPMI increased by 10.6 points to 59.6, indicating a significant improvement in the economic climate, reaching the second-highest level for March since 2019, only behind March 2021 [1][6][8]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The production, order, and export indices rose by 21.6, 13.7, and 11.6 points respectively, reflecting a recovery in production as the operational season commenced [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio stands at 3.3, indicating a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance compared to the averages from 2021 to 2024 [2][10]. - Employment indicators improved by 5.8 points, marking the second consecutive month of positive change [2][12]. Group 2: Sector Performance - All seven major emerging industries are in the expansion zone, with significant increases in the new generation information technology sector, which rose by 27.1 points to above 60 [4][14]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and new materials sectors saw increases of 16.4 and 9.0 points respectively, supported by government policies promoting emerging industries [4][14]. - The new energy vehicle sector increased by 8.1 points, reflecting the impact of policy incentives [4][15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The EPMI's upward trend is crucial for assessing the manufacturing and economic climate, with expectations that the manufacturing PMI could return to around 51 in March [3][12]. - The upcoming months are critical for sustaining economic recovery, influenced by debt management policies and fiscal changes [5][15].

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for domestic PMI data, suggesting a favorable direction for asset allocation while monitoring variables related to US Treasury rates [5][6][9] - It emphasizes the seasonal recovery in February PMI, indicating a need to pay attention to the incremental policies from the upcoming Two Sessions [5][13] - The investment strategy for March includes a focus on key stocks, with a particular emphasis on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion and technological advancements [5][18] Group 1: Domestic PMI Data and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 50.2, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing activity [8][13] - The non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.4, slightly above market expectations, reflecting a stable recovery in the service sector [8][13] - The report suggests that the recovery in PMI is influenced by the post-Spring Festival resumption of activities and government stimulus measures, with production and new orders showing growth [8][14] Group 2: Market Performance and Asset Allocation - The report notes a general decline in global equity markets during the last week of February, with A-shares experiencing adjustments while US and European markets showed mixed results [7][8] - It highlights a decrease in commodity prices, including oil and metals, alongside a rebound in the US dollar index [7][8] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with strong downstream recovery and competitive cost structures, particularly in non-ferrous metals and petrochemical industries [8][9] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The report discusses the government's focus on expanding domestic demand and technological innovation as key tasks for the upcoming Two Sessions, with GDP growth targets expected around 5% [18][25] - It mentions the potential for increased fiscal deficits and the expansion of special bonds to support economic growth [18][25] - The report also addresses the impact of external uncertainties, particularly related to US trade policies and their potential effects on China's export outlook [18][19]

Macro Events - The National People's Congress (NPC) will convene on March 5, 2025, with key agendas including discussions on government work reports and political resolutions[1] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canada planning to retaliate with tariffs on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February is at 50.3, slightly below expectations of 50.5, marking the highest level since June 2022[2] - The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for February is at 47.6, exceeding expectations of 47.3, while Germany's PMI reached 46.5, the highest since January 2023[2] Commodity Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $68.47, down 2.12% for the day and down 16.71% year-on-year[3] - COMEX gold closed at $2904.10, up 1.28% for the day and up 34.21% year-on-year[3] Stock Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 43191.24, down 1.48% for the day and up 11.35% year-on-year[3] - The Nasdaq Composite closed at 18350.19, down 2.64% for the day and up 13.95% year-on-year[3] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.16%, down 0.08% for the day and down 0.18% year-on-year[3] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 3.96%, down 0.03% for the day and down 0.58% year-on-year[3]

中国宏观经济2025年3月报 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 经济修复步伐略有加快 宏观焦点转向政策 方正中期研究院 宏观金融与航运团队 李彦森 F3050205(从业) Z0013871(投资咨询) 2025年2月28日 www.founderfu.com CONTENT 目录 第一部分 经济基本面与宏观供需 第二部分 价格水平变动情况 第三部分 货币与财政政策 第四部分 汇率与商品市场波动 2 基本面与宏观供需——主要观点 年初以来国内经济基本延续去年四季度的修复趋势，且春节假期后修复速度略有加快。其中消费增长略超预期，投资暂 时变动不大，出口则维持一定韧性。当前公布的1、2月经济数据不多，我们本期更多从高频数据角度观察经济。 产出方面，春节前后受到假期影响，主要工业品生产以及建筑业生产放缓，但服务业产出增长明显。对于制造业，发电 量、汽车轮胎开工等基本稳定。我们认为短期来看库存周期暂时处于加库存阶段，政策影响依然巨大，且外需带动也没 有减弱。但今年仍面临库存周期回落的潜在影响，这也将是经济持续面临的内生风险。 需求方面，外需有望维持任性，从高频和领先数据看，半导体等高端制造业出口仍存在继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the economy is maintained by the "export grabbing" strategy, with the sustainability of economic recovery dependent on future export conditions and policy responses [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for February is at 50.2, indicating a return above the growth line, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points, surpassing the average increase of 0.8 percentage points from 2015 to 2019 [1]. - The production index rose by 2.7 percentage points to 52.5%, while the new orders index increased by 1.9 percentage points to 51.1% [1]. - The export new orders index in February increased by 2.2 percentage points to 48.6%, driven by the "export grabbing" trend [2]. Group 2: Export Dynamics - The "export grabbing" mode has been accelerated since Trump's election, with a 10.1% year-on-year increase in U.S. imports from China in December 2024 and a 15.6% increase in Chinese exports to the U.S. [2]. - In January 2025, U.S. container imports reached a record 2.487 million TEU, with a month-on-month increase of 10.6% from China [2]. - The manufacturing sector's performance is bolstered by the "export grabbing," with the equipment manufacturing production index remaining above 54% in February [2]. Group 3: Price Trends - In February, the main raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices indices increased by 1.3 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, providing positive guidance for the PPI data [3]. Group 4: Trade Tensions and Policy Outlook - The intensification of U.S.-China trade tensions since February raises concerns about the sustainability of the "export grabbing" window, with new tariffs announced by the U.S. [4]. - The manufacturing PMI's production and raw material inventory indices declined by 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points, indicating uncertainty in export performance [4]. - Current domestic policies are focused on stabilizing the economy, with monetary policy emphasizing coordination rather than aggressive measures, and fiscal policy prioritizing debt management [5][6].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - The official manufacturing PMI for February 2025 is recorded at 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return above the growth threshold[1] - The average manufacturing PMI for the first two months of 2025 is 49.7%, lower than the average of 50.2% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a weaker manufacturing sentiment compared to seasonal norms[1] - The production index and new orders index for February are 52.5% and 51.1%, respectively, indicating that production is expanding faster than demand[2] Economic Trends and Risks - The new export orders index stands at 48.6%, reflecting a slight recovery but still indicating potential risks in external demand due to uncertainties in trade policies[2] - There is a notable divergence in sentiment among manufacturing enterprises, with large enterprises showing a PMI of 52.5%, while medium and small enterprises are at 49.2% and 46.3%, respectively, highlighting a reliance on large firms for recovery[2] - The manufacturing price indices indicate a potential narrowing of PPI declines, with the output price index at 48.5% and the main raw material purchase price index at 50.8%[2] Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI average for the first two months of 2025 is 50.6%, down from 51.3% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a slower economic recovery trajectory[6] - The construction PMI for February is 52.7%, showing a strong recovery post-holiday, while the service sector PMI is at 50.0%, indicating a decline[5] - The overall economic sentiment remains cautious, with the need for further policy support for small and medium enterprises highlighted as crucial for sustained recovery[2]

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 2 月制造业 PMI 超预期，关注钢铁板块投 资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 9 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 03 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 供给优化需求改善，积极关注稀土产业链 | 2025-02-23 | | --- | --- | | 投 资 机 会 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 | | | （2025 年第 8 周） | | | 欧洲引领非美市场制造业前景改善，关注 | 2025-02-16 | | 铜矿股投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观 | | | 点（2025 年第 7 周） | | | 关税或推升避险与通胀，关注黄金股投资 | 2025-02-09 | | 机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年 | | | 第 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 回升至荣枯线以上 2 月制造业 PMI 为 50.2% ，前值为 49.1% 。具体分项来看： 1 ） PMI 生产指数为 52.5% ，前值为 49.8% ，回升 2.7 个百分点。 2 ） PMI 新订单指数为 51.1% ，前值为 49.2% 。 PMI 新出口订单指数为 48.6% ，前值为 46.4% 。 3 ） PMI 从业人员指数为 48.6% ，前值为 48.1% 。 4 ）供货商配送时间指数 为 51.0% ，前值为 50.3% 。 5 ） PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0% ，前值为 47.7% 。 PMI 点评：回升的思考 （一）为何回升：春节或是主导因素 2 月，制造业与建筑业 PMI 明显回升，或主要来自春节因素。比较 2018-2025 年每年春节所在月的 PMI 与春节所在月下一个月的 PMI （注： 2020 年和 2022 年受疫情影响较大，不予考虑），均是明显回升的 走势。 1 ）制造业 PMI ...

2025 年 03 月 02 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 PMI 节后反弹，投资好于消费 事件点评 PMI 点评（2025.2） 投资要点 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 LPR 四度持平，十债利率升至 1.7%，释放 何种信号？——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 95 期） 2025.2.21 信贷创纪录"开门红"，年初集中还是全年趋 高？——金融数据速评（2025.1）2025.2.14 内外形势有何变化，货币如何调整优化？— —《货币政策执行报告》（2024Q4）解读·周 报（第 94 期） 2025.2.14 核心通胀不降反升，美联储还能降息吗？— —美国 CPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.13 油价回升服务走高，CPI 稍好于预期—— CPI、PPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.9 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节后 PMI 如期明显反弹，投资回暖快于消费。由于 1 月跌幅较深，1 ...

// 热点聚焦 // 1、 中国2月官方制造业PMI为50.2，前值49.1 ； 非制造业PMI为50.4，比上月上升0.2个百分点； 综合PMI为51.1，比上月上升1.0个百分点。 国家统计局：2月份，随着春节后企业陆续复工复产，生产经营活动加快， 制造业采购经理指数明显回升，为50.2%，比上月上升1.1个百分点 ；非制 造业商务活动指数为50.4%，比上月上升0.2个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为51.1%；三大指数均位于扩张区间，我国经济景气水平总体有所回升。 2月份制造业PMI重回扩张区间。专家表示， 2月份PMI指数明显回升到荣枯线之上，受到春节后复工复产和政策落地见效等叠加因素影响，企业加大 采购力度也带动了上游原材料价格的回弹 ，需要注意，更靠近终端市场的中小型企业仍处于收缩运行区间，还需要持续加大宏观经济政策逆周期调节 力度，强化政府公共产品投资对企业订单的有效扩大作用，加快巩固经济回升向好态势。 2、 3 月1日，DeepSeek于知乎开设官方账号，发布《DeepSeek-V3/R1推理系统概览》技术文章，首次公布模型推理系统优化细节，并披露成本 利润率关键信息。文章称理论上一天的总收入为 ...