1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in high - level adjustment with long - term strategic allocation value due to unsolved contradictions, uncertain tariff negotiations, and the trend of de - dollarization [1][2] - Silver is in wide - range adjustment. Short - term tariff negotiations improve sentiment, but mid - term uncertainty is high [1] - Copper is expected to fall in the short - term due to approaching holidays and rising risk - aversion. However, it is still favored in the long - term [1][5] - Zinc is expected to fall in the short - term because of policy expectation disappointment and holiday - approaching risk - aversion. In the long - term, supply increases while demand is weak [1][8] - Lead and tin prices are under pressure to rebound due to their respective supply - demand situations [1] - Aluminum prices continue to rebound as overseas environment eases, supply is stable, and inventory is decreasing [1][11] - Nickel prices rebound and then fall because of the contradiction at the Indonesian nickel mine end and slow stainless - steel de - stocking [1][13] - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are bearish due to supply - demand imbalances and high inventories [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver 3.1.1 Market Conditions - SHFE gold is at 780.04, down 0.91% from the previous value and 6.18% from last week; COMEX gold is at 3361, up 0.92% from the previous value and down 0.91% from last week. SHFE silver is at 8168, down 1.35% from the previous value and 0.07% from last week; COMEX silver is at 34, up 0.89% from the previous value and 4.22% from last week [2] 3.1.2 Basic Logic - Tariff negotiations are in a deadlock. The US plans to negotiate with 18 trade partners in a fixed mode. If no agreement is reached, equal tariffs will be implemented [2] - A large amount of investment funds has withdrawn from the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, with an outflow of $1.27 billion, the largest since 2011 [2] - The short - term adjustment of gold is affected by the marginal easing of Sino - US trade frictions, the alleviation of concerns about the Fed's independence, and trading congestion. But the bull - market logic remains unchanged [2] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For short - term, when the short - term sentiment relaxes and the price stops falling and stabilizes, continue to participate. For silver, use a range - trading strategy within [8100, 8400] [3] 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market Conditions - The closing price of SHFE copper is 77630, down 0.22% from the previous day; LME copper is at 9428, up 0.38% from the previous day; COMEX copper is at 490, down 0.01% from the previous day [4] 3.2.2 Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply is constantly disturbed, and copper concentrate processing fees continue to hit new lows. Demand shows resilience, but enterprises' order expectations are cautious due to price fluctuations and US tariff policies [5] 3.2.3 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, as the May Day holiday approaches, it is recommended to gradually take profits on long copper positions, and hold light positions or be empty - handed during the holiday. In the long - term, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. Short - term SHFE copper focuses on the range [76000, 78000], and LME copper focuses on [9000, 9500] dollars/ton [5] 3.3 Zinc 3.3.1 Market Conditions - The closing price of SHFE zinc is 22530, up 0.07% from the previous day; LME zinc is at 2639, down 0.28% from the previous day [7] 3.3.2 Industrial Logic - In 2025, the supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose. The import of zinc concentrate in March decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Refining zinc smelter profits are positive, and downstream demand is entering the off - season [7] 3.3.3 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc prices will fall again due to holiday - approaching risk - aversion. In the long - term, supply increases while demand is weak. Look for opportunities to short on rallies. SHFE zinc focuses on the range [22000, 22800], and LME zinc focuses on [2600, 2680] dollars/ton [8][9] 3.4 Aluminum 3.4.1 Market Conditions - The closing price of LME aluminum is 2431, down 0.27% from the previous value; SHFE aluminum is at 19935, down 0.47% from the previous value [10] 3.4.2 Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas tariff policy disturbances weaken, inventory decreases, and downstream demand is in the peak season. For alumina, the supply and demand surplus situation is temporarily alleviated [11] 3.4.3 Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to lightly go long on SHFE aluminum at low prices, paying attention to the performance of the peak season. The main operating range is [19500 - 20300]. Alumina is expected to run relatively weakly [11] 3.5 Nickel 3.5.1 Market Conditions - The closing price of LME nickel is 15590, up 0.65% from the previous value; SHFE nickel is at 124690, down 0.88% from the previous value [12] 3.5.2 Industrial Logic - The Indonesian nickel mine policy increases costs, providing some support for nickel prices. Domestic refined nickel production is high, and inventory is at a relatively high level. Stainless - steel inventory de - stocking faces resistance, and the industry is in a state of oversupply [13] 3.5.3 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [121000 - 129000] [13] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate 3.6.1 Market Conditions - The price of the main contract LC2507 is 66,960, down 1.79% from the previous value [14] 3.6.2 Industrial Logic - The fundamental situation has not improved significantly, with 11 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation indicating a supply - demand imbalance. Downstream pre - holiday replenishment willingness is low, and demand has no seasonal increase. Although short - term supply is tightened, there is a risk of negative feedback [15] 3.6.3 Strategy Recommendation - The price is expected to run weakly. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with the range [65000, 69000] [15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming volatility in the commodity market during the May Day holiday, highlighting the potential impacts of various economic indicators and events on different commodities [2][3] Group 1: Market Volatility and Indicators - The commodity market is experiencing high volatility ahead of the May Day holiday, with historical data showing an average jump of 2.3% on the first trading day after the holiday over the past five years [2] - Key economic events and data releases include China's April official manufacturing PMI, the U.S. ADP employment change, the U.S. PCE price index, and the U.S. Q1 GDP annualized growth rate, all of which are expected to influence various commodities [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data on May 2 is particularly significant, as weaker-than-expected employment figures could lead to a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially benefiting precious and base metals [2][3] Group 2: International Relations and Tariffs - A new round of talks between the U.S. and Iran is scheduled for May 3, which may impact oil and related products [3] - The U.S. is set to impose import tariffs on automotive parts produced overseas, which could affect commodities such as gold, rubber, aluminum, and copper [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, short - term observation is recommended as there is a possibility of correction in the short - to - medium term, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game [4]. - For copper, prices are expected to remain high before May Day due to short - term tariff alleviation, strong pre - holiday consumption, and supply - side speculation. After May Day, the impact on consumption should be monitored [10]. - For alumina, prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [18]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [21]. - For zinc, prices may rebound due to low social inventory, but the fundamentals are under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [26]. - For lead, prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro factors and import profitability [31]. - For nickel, prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and a mid - term strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [36]. - For stainless steel, prices may fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [43]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [47]. - For polysilicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - term positive arbitrage should take profit and exit [49]. - For lithium carbonate, a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [54]. - For tin, prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term, and risk prevention is necessary [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - On Friday, precious metals gave back the previous day's gains. London gold closed down 0.9% at $3318.62 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.53% at $33.1 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined [2]. Important Information - Trump made statements about tariff negotiations, and the US 4 - month inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released. The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates was also given [2]. Logic Analysis - Trump's attitude softening boosted market risk appetite, but after China's clarification, the market entered a wait - and - see state. Precious metals may correct in the short - to - medium term [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily observe. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [5]. Copper Market Review - LME copper closed at $9375 on Friday, up $15 or 0.16%. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. Important Information - Trump made statements about trade agreements, and major copper producers' production and sales expectations were reported [8]. Logic Analysis - Macro: Trump's trade agreement plan. Supply: Concentrate processing fees are falling, and smelter losses may increase. Demand: Downstream consumption has decreased, but pre - holiday stocking demand has increased [10]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will remain high before May Day. After May Day, short - selling opportunities can be considered if consumption is affected. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [10][11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures contract of alumina 2505 fell by 8 yuan/ton to 2823 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - There were issues with the Guinean shipping terminal, and the market supply was in a state of increase and decrease alternation. The relationship between price and production capacity was also analyzed [14]. Logic Analysis - After price declines and increased losses, production capacity adjustments occurred. Short - term supply - demand surplus was alleviated, and the market focused on the ore end [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [18]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai aluminum 2506 rose by 15 yuan/ton to 19970 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [19]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and Trump's tariff statements were reported, and aluminum ingot inventories decreased [19][20]. Logic Analysis - Tariff issues are in negotiation. Fundamentally, the weighted开工率 of aluminum processing is stable, and the import of aluminum ingots may limit price increases. The annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff and domestic demand policies. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [21]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 2.22% to $2645.5/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2506 fell 0.86% to 22550 yuan/ton. Spot trading was light [23]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting, industrial enterprise profit data, and LME's plan for a low - carbon metal premium mechanism were reported [24][25]. Logic Analysis - In May, domestic zinc concentrate supply will be relatively loose, and refined zinc production will remain high. Consumption is expected to decline after the peak season [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rebound due to low inventory, but short - selling on rallies can be considered. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [26]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.84% to $1945/ton, and Shanghai lead 2506 fell 0.94% to 16855 yuan/ton. Spot trading showed different performances in different regions [28]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and the approval of nuclear power projects were reported [31]. Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelting may cut production due to losses. Prices may be strong, but attention should be paid to import profitability [31]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and import factors. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [31]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15490/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot premiums and prices showed different trends [33]. Important Information - The production capacity and project responses of some nickel - related companies were reported, and Vale's nickel production increased [33][35]. Logic Analysis - Macro sentiment affects short - term prices. In May, the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased, but the full price remained firm. Supply is high, and demand may decline [36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds in the mid - term. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel SS2506 fell to 12685 yuan/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot prices were reported [38][39]. Important Information - Steel Union's inventory statistics were reported [39]. Logic Analysis - Cost - driven price increases may end, and demand is unclear. Short - term prices follow nickel and macro factors, and may decline in the medium term [42]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Observe [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon fell 0.85% to 8780 yuan/ton, and spot prices continued to decline [45]. Important Information - An organic silicon factory planned to carry out maintenance [45]. Comprehensive Analysis - DMC prices are falling, and monomer enterprise maintenance is increasing. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is in a negative cycle [46]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rallies. - Options: Observe. - Arbitrage: Participate in reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [47]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon fell 1.84% to 38390 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [49]. Important Information - National energy data showed an increase in photovoltaic installation [49]. Comprehensive Analysis - Component, silicon wafer, and battery prices are falling, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The futures market has strong multi - empty games, and prices are expected to decline [49]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe in the short term and pay attention to manufacturers' production of delivery products after the holiday. - Options: None. - Arbitrage: Take profit and exit the long PS2506 and short PS2511 arbitrage [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract of lithium carbonate fell to 68180 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [53]. Important Information - The progress of the automobile circulation reform and Tesla's situation in India were reported [53]. Logic Analysis - Production decreased last week, but inventory increased slightly, indicating weak demand. After May, supply may increase, and prices may be under pressure [53]. Pre - holiday Positioning Suggestion - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Hold put ratio options [54]. Tin Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai tin 2505 fell 0.3% to 262025 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased. Trading was light [56]. Important Information - Trump's trade agreement statements and Tin Industry Co.'s quarterly report were reported [57]. Logic Analysis - Trump's trade negotiation plan may cause market fluctuations. The short - term supply of tin ore is tight, but the annual supply - demand tension is relieved [58]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term and pay attention to risks. - Options: Observe [58][60].

策略建议：技术上，FU主力合约上方关注3100附近压力，下方关注2900支撑，短线呈现冲高回落走 势。LU主力合约上方关注3600附近压力，下方关注3320支撑，短线呈现区间震荡走势。操作上，短线 交易为主。 【原油】 上周回顾：关税谈判推进，美国总统特朗普表示无意解雇鲍威尔，呼吁美联储应该降息，美元指数小幅 走弱，原油走势偏强。 本周来看，"美联储传声筒"NickTimiraos表示，市场过度解读美联储六月降息言论;美国关税豁免存在空 间，市场贸易担忧情绪减弱;伊朗港口大爆炸，国家石油公司表示能源设施未受波及;美国伊朗第三轮核 谈判已在阿曼开始;宏观潜在风险延续，部分产油国建议OPEC+在6月加大增产力度，美元指数震荡，国 际油价存在上涨空间。 美国炼厂原油加工量环比增2.09%，商业原油库存环比增长24.4万桶，馏份油库存比去年同期低8.32%。 策略建议：技术上，SC2505合约上方测试510附近压力，下方关注470附近支撑，短线呈现区间震荡走 势。操作上，建议短线交易为主。 【燃料油】 上周关税谈判推进，美国总统特朗普呼吁美联储应该降息，美元指数小幅走弱，原油走势偏强。 本周来看，CME"美联储观察" ...

豆粕：现货担忧情绪缓解，连粕下跌 豆一：豆粕现货波动影响，跟随下跌 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 2025 年 04 月 28 日 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4237 | -61 （-1.42%） 4214 | -54（-1.27%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3031 | -28（-0.92%） 2989 | -52 （-1.71%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1059.25 | -2.75（-0.26%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 298.3 | n a +1.6（+0.54%） | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3750～3850， 40/-30/-10/+0， | 较昨-50或-20； 5月M2509+150， 较昨持平； 持平； 8 ...

截至2023年，美国出口的大豆中，超过一半是面向中国的。由于中美贸易摩擦，中国正大幅 减少对美国大豆的进口量。日本考虑承担减少的部分…… 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）获悉，在日美关税谈判中，日本政府正考虑扩大进 口美国大豆。截至2023年，美国出口的大豆中，超过一半是面向中国的。由于中美贸易摩 擦，美国大豆的出口量减少，日本考虑承担减少的部分，以引导美方态度软化。 负责与美国进行关税谈判的日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正将于4月30日至5月2日访问美 国，与美国财政部长贝森特等人进行磋商。赤泽表示力争"达成一体化协议"，扩大进口美国大 豆的方案将成为日方的谈判筹码之一。 日本的大豆进口由民营企业进行。2024年的进口量比上年增长0.5%，达到317万吨。其 中，美国占65.7%，巴西占23.4%，加拿大占10.4%。日本政府正在考虑让民营企业增加来自 美国的进口量。 2023年，美国的大豆出口中，有54.3%是面向中国的。美国特朗普政府对中国进口商品征 收的关税目前累计达到145%。中方也采取反制措施，把对美国进口商品征收的关税提高到 125%。 目前，中国正大幅减少对美国大豆的进口量。业界团体美国大豆协会对 ...

相互握手的日本财务 相加藤(右)与美国财长贝森特(4月24日、华盛顿、日本财务省提供) 双方就汇率政策进行了磋商。加藤在会谈后的记者会上表示："美方完全没有提及汇率水平的 目标和相关框架"。加藤强调称"这是一次有建设性的讨论"…… 日本财务相加藤胜信4月24日(北京时间25日)在美国首都华盛顿与美国财政部部长贝森特 举行了会谈。双方就汇率政策进行了磋商。加藤在会谈后的记者会上表示："美方完全没有提 及汇率水平的目标和相关框架"。双方确认将继续就汇率问题保持紧密合作。 贝森特4月23日在日美关税谈判中表示，"不寻求特定的货币目标"，同时表示"期待尊重七 国集团(G7)的协议"。2017年5月的G7协议规定"所有国家不得进行竞争性的货币贬值"。 加藤在4月24日的会谈中表示，日方"对美国的一系列关税措施感到非常遗憾，强烈要求重 新审视那些与日美贸易协定的一致性存在隐忧的措施"。双方还就加薪等日本经济的动向进行 了讨论，加藤强调称"这是一次有建设性的讨论"。 贝森特担任日美关税谈判的主导角色。他于4月16日会见了访美的日本经济财政再生相赤 泽亮正，日美就此启动了双边磋商。首轮磋商双方曾商定汇率问题将在作为专家的日美 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The energy and chemical market shows mixed trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price movements. Some products are under pressure due to factors like over - supply and weak demand, while others have certain support from demand or cost factors [2][3][4][6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On April 24, the PVC主力09合约 closed at 4968 yuan/ton (-38), with different market prices in various regions. The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate drag and export restrictions. Supply has new investment plans and high inventory, resulting in a bearish outlook. Recently, there has been some improvement in exports and domestic demand, but the market is mainly macro - driven. The price is in a weak consolidation phase, and it may be supported by strong domestic stimulus policies or further pressured by trade frictions and economic deterioration [2]. Caustic Soda - On April 24, the caustic soda主力SH09合约 closed at 2472 yuan/ton (-24). The price in the Shandong market decreased. The inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises decreased, but it is still at a high level. The market is supported by new Indonesian investments and exports, but overall, supply is sufficient and demand growth is limited, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Key points to watch include delivery, inventory, and alumina production [3]. Rubber - On April 24, rubber showed a volatile trend. Thailand is about to start rubber tapping. The market is expected to be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply. Tire production capacity utilization decreased, and rubber inventory in China showed a complex trend. The price of rubber raw materials varies in different regions. The market is still considered weak, and future demand will be affected by tariffs [4][5]. Urea - The urea主力合约 fell 0.79% to 1758 yuan/ton. Supply is stable with high daily production. Demand from compound fertilizers is in a seasonal inventory - building phase, while industrial demand is rising. The inventory of urea enterprises has changed from destocking to stocking. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1750 - 1850 yuan/ton, and key factors to watch include compound fertilizer production and export policies [6]. Methanol - The methanol主力合约 rose 0.62% to 2289 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and the port arrival volume is expected to increase. Demand from the olefin industry decreased slightly, and traditional demand has limited support. Inventory in both enterprises and ports increased. The 09 contract is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the range of 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton, and key factors to watch include the macro - environment and production device maintenance [7][8]. Plastic - On April 24, the plastic主力合约 fell 0.90% to 7149 yuan/ton. Supply is under pressure due to expected new capacity in the second quarter. Downstream demand from the agricultural film industry declined significantly, while packaging film demand is okay and pipe demand is average. Inventory is neutral, and the 2509 contract is expected to have a short - term low - level oscillation, with a cautious bearish view. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, oil prices, and tariff negotiations [9].

美股期货走高，纳斯达克100指数期货和标普500指数期货转涨，道指期货接近转涨，此前纳斯达克100 指数期货一度跌超1%。 ...

Economic Performance - In the first quarter, GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year and 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a strong economic performance driven by consumption and export activities [1] - The contribution rates to economic growth from consumption, investment, and net exports were 51.7%, 8.7%, and 39.5% respectively, with consumption and net exports accounting for over 90% combined, significantly higher than last year's figures [1] Investment Trends - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintained a high growth rate of around 10% year-on-year, supported by fiscal policies and increased special bonds [2] - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, indicating expansion in production and new orders, which suggests a positive cycle of demand improvement leading to increased production [2] - Government consumption subsidies are set at 300 billion yuan, an increase of 150 billion yuan from last year, aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing consumer confidence [2] Export Dynamics - The export sector is significantly influenced by U.S. tariff policies, with recent indications of potential easing in trade tensions, which could positively impact Chinese exporters [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggested that the current tariff situation is unsustainable, hinting at possible future negotiations that may alleviate pressure on exports [3] A-Share Market Outlook - A-share companies have shown positive earnings growth, with major indices like CSI 300 and SSE 50 reporting positive revenue and net profit growth [4] - The recovery in consumption and strong performance in the capital market are expected to support the rebound of blue-chip indices, which will gradually benefit smaller-cap indices as well [4]