Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, short - term observation is recommended as there is a possibility of correction in the short - to - medium term, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game [4]. - For copper, prices are expected to remain high before May Day due to short - term tariff alleviation, strong pre - holiday consumption, and supply - side speculation. After May Day, the impact on consumption should be monitored [10]. - For alumina, prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [18]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [21]. - For zinc, prices may rebound due to low social inventory, but the fundamentals are under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [26]. - For lead, prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro factors and import profitability [31]. - For nickel, prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and a mid - term strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [36]. - For stainless steel, prices may fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [43]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [47]. - For polysilicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - term positive arbitrage should take profit and exit [49]. - For lithium carbonate, a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [54]. - For tin, prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term, and risk prevention is necessary [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - On Friday, precious metals gave back the previous day's gains. London gold closed down 0.9% at $3318.62 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.53% at $33.1 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined [2]. Important Information - Trump made statements about tariff negotiations, and the US 4 - month inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released. The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates was also given [2]. Logic Analysis - Trump's attitude softening boosted market risk appetite, but after China's clarification, the market entered a wait - and - see state. Precious metals may correct in the short - to - medium term [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily observe. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [5]. Copper Market Review - LME copper closed at $9375 on Friday, up $15 or 0.16%. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. Important Information - Trump made statements about trade agreements, and major copper producers' production and sales expectations were reported [8]. Logic Analysis - Macro: Trump's trade agreement plan. Supply: Concentrate processing fees are falling, and smelter losses may increase. Demand: Downstream consumption has decreased, but pre - holiday stocking demand has increased [10]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will remain high before May Day. After May Day, short - selling opportunities can be considered if consumption is affected. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [10][11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures contract of alumina 2505 fell by 8 yuan/ton to 2823 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - There were issues with the Guinean shipping terminal, and the market supply was in a state of increase and decrease alternation. The relationship between price and production capacity was also analyzed [14]. Logic Analysis - After price declines and increased losses, production capacity adjustments occurred. Short - term supply - demand surplus was alleviated, and the market focused on the ore end [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [18]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai aluminum 2506 rose by 15 yuan/ton to 19970 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [19]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and Trump's tariff statements were reported, and aluminum ingot inventories decreased [19][20]. Logic Analysis - Tariff issues are in negotiation. Fundamentally, the weighted开工率 of aluminum processing is stable, and the import of aluminum ingots may limit price increases. The annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff and domestic demand policies. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [21]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 2.22% to $2645.5/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2506 fell 0.86% to 22550 yuan/ton. Spot trading was light [23]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting, industrial enterprise profit data, and LME's plan for a low - carbon metal premium mechanism were reported [24][25]. Logic Analysis - In May, domestic zinc concentrate supply will be relatively loose, and refined zinc production will remain high. Consumption is expected to decline after the peak season [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rebound due to low inventory, but short - selling on rallies can be considered. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [26]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.84% to $1945/ton, and Shanghai lead 2506 fell 0.94% to 16855 yuan/ton. Spot trading showed different performances in different regions [28]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and the approval of nuclear power projects were reported [31]. Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelting may cut production due to losses. Prices may be strong, but attention should be paid to import profitability [31]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and import factors. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [31]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15490/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot premiums and prices showed different trends [33]. Important Information - The production capacity and project responses of some nickel - related companies were reported, and Vale's nickel production increased [33][35]. Logic Analysis - Macro sentiment affects short - term prices. In May, the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased, but the full price remained firm. Supply is high, and demand may decline [36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds in the mid - term. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel SS2506 fell to 12685 yuan/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot prices were reported [38][39]. Important Information - Steel Union's inventory statistics were reported [39]. Logic Analysis - Cost - driven price increases may end, and demand is unclear. Short - term prices follow nickel and macro factors, and may decline in the medium term [42]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Observe [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon fell 0.85% to 8780 yuan/ton, and spot prices continued to decline [45]. Important Information - An organic silicon factory planned to carry out maintenance [45]. Comprehensive Analysis - DMC prices are falling, and monomer enterprise maintenance is increasing. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is in a negative cycle [46]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rallies. - Options: Observe. - Arbitrage: Participate in reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [47]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon fell 1.84% to 38390 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [49]. Important Information - National energy data showed an increase in photovoltaic installation [49]. Comprehensive Analysis - Component, silicon wafer, and battery prices are falling, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The futures market has strong multi - empty games, and prices are expected to decline [49]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe in the short term and pay attention to manufacturers' production of delivery products after the holiday. - Options: None. - Arbitrage: Take profit and exit the long PS2506 and short PS2511 arbitrage [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract of lithium carbonate fell to 68180 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [53]. Important Information - The progress of the automobile circulation reform and Tesla's situation in India were reported [53]. Logic Analysis - Production decreased last week, but inventory increased slightly, indicating weak demand. After May, supply may increase, and prices may be under pressure [53]. Pre - holiday Positioning Suggestion - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Hold put ratio options [54]. Tin Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai tin 2505 fell 0.3% to 262025 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased. Trading was light [56]. Important Information - Trump's trade agreement statements and Tin Industry Co.'s quarterly report were reported [57]. Logic Analysis - Trump's trade negotiation plan may cause market fluctuations. The short - term supply of tin ore is tight, but the annual supply - demand tension is relieved [58]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term and pay attention to risks. - Options: Observe [58][60].

策略建议：技术上，FU主力合约上方关注3100附近压力，下方关注2900支撑，短线呈现冲高回落走 势。LU主力合约上方关注3600附近压力，下方关注3320支撑，短线呈现区间震荡走势。操作上，短线 交易为主。 【原油】 上周回顾：关税谈判推进，美国总统特朗普表示无意解雇鲍威尔，呼吁美联储应该降息，美元指数小幅 走弱，原油走势偏强。 本周来看，"美联储传声筒"NickTimiraos表示，市场过度解读美联储六月降息言论;美国关税豁免存在空 间，市场贸易担忧情绪减弱;伊朗港口大爆炸，国家石油公司表示能源设施未受波及;美国伊朗第三轮核 谈判已在阿曼开始;宏观潜在风险延续，部分产油国建议OPEC+在6月加大增产力度，美元指数震荡，国 际油价存在上涨空间。 美国炼厂原油加工量环比增2.09%，商业原油库存环比增长24.4万桶，馏份油库存比去年同期低8.32%。 策略建议：技术上，SC2505合约上方测试510附近压力，下方关注470附近支撑，短线呈现区间震荡走 势。操作上，建议短线交易为主。 【燃料油】 上周关税谈判推进，美国总统特朗普呼吁美联储应该降息，美元指数小幅走弱，原油走势偏强。 本周来看，CME"美联储观察" ...

豆粕：现货担忧情绪缓解，连粕下跌 豆一：豆粕现货波动影响，跟随下跌 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 2025 年 04 月 28 日 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4237 | -61 （-1.42%） 4214 | -54（-1.27%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3031 | -28（-0.92%） 2989 | -52 （-1.71%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1059.25 | -2.75（-0.26%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 298.3 | n a +1.6（+0.54%） | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3750～3850， 40/-30/-10/+0， | 较昨-50或-20； 5月M2509+150， 较昨持平； 持平； 8 ...

截至2023年，美国出口的大豆中，超过一半是面向中国的。由于中美贸易摩擦，中国正大幅 减少对美国大豆的进口量。日本考虑承担减少的部分…… 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）获悉，在日美关税谈判中，日本政府正考虑扩大进 口美国大豆。截至2023年，美国出口的大豆中，超过一半是面向中国的。由于中美贸易摩 擦，美国大豆的出口量减少，日本考虑承担减少的部分，以引导美方态度软化。 负责与美国进行关税谈判的日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正将于4月30日至5月2日访问美 国，与美国财政部长贝森特等人进行磋商。赤泽表示力争"达成一体化协议"，扩大进口美国大 豆的方案将成为日方的谈判筹码之一。 日本的大豆进口由民营企业进行。2024年的进口量比上年增长0.5%，达到317万吨。其 中，美国占65.7%，巴西占23.4%，加拿大占10.4%。日本政府正在考虑让民营企业增加来自 美国的进口量。 2023年，美国的大豆出口中，有54.3%是面向中国的。美国特朗普政府对中国进口商品征 收的关税目前累计达到145%。中方也采取反制措施，把对美国进口商品征收的关税提高到 125%。 目前，中国正大幅减少对美国大豆的进口量。业界团体美国大豆协会对 ...

相互握手的日本财务 相加藤(右)与美国财长贝森特(4月24日、华盛顿、日本财务省提供) 双方就汇率政策进行了磋商。加藤在会谈后的记者会上表示："美方完全没有提及汇率水平的 目标和相关框架"。加藤强调称"这是一次有建设性的讨论"…… 日本财务相加藤胜信4月24日(北京时间25日)在美国首都华盛顿与美国财政部部长贝森特 举行了会谈。双方就汇率政策进行了磋商。加藤在会谈后的记者会上表示："美方完全没有提 及汇率水平的目标和相关框架"。双方确认将继续就汇率问题保持紧密合作。 贝森特4月23日在日美关税谈判中表示，"不寻求特定的货币目标"，同时表示"期待尊重七 国集团(G7)的协议"。2017年5月的G7协议规定"所有国家不得进行竞争性的货币贬值"。 加藤在4月24日的会谈中表示，日方"对美国的一系列关税措施感到非常遗憾，强烈要求重 新审视那些与日美贸易协定的一致性存在隐忧的措施"。双方还就加薪等日本经济的动向进行 了讨论，加藤强调称"这是一次有建设性的讨论"。 贝森特担任日美关税谈判的主导角色。他于4月16日会见了访美的日本经济财政再生相赤 泽亮正，日美就此启动了双边磋商。首轮磋商双方曾商定汇率问题将在作为专家的日美 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: 4 月 24 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4968 元/吨（-38），常州市场价 4780 元/吨（0），主力基差-188 元/吨（+38），广州市场价 4850 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4830 元/吨（0）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2450 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态，内需季节性 恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。目前海外局势 动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政策预期不强，PVC 估值偏低，盘面弱 势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口 和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、 经济预期继续恶化，盘面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱： 4 月 24 日烧碱主力 SH09 合约收 2472 元/吨（-24 ...

美股期货走高，纳斯达克100指数期货和标普500指数期货转涨，道指期货接近转涨，此前纳斯达克100 指数期货一度跌超1%。 ...

Economic Performance - In the first quarter, GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year and 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a strong economic performance driven by consumption and export activities [1] - The contribution rates to economic growth from consumption, investment, and net exports were 51.7%, 8.7%, and 39.5% respectively, with consumption and net exports accounting for over 90% combined, significantly higher than last year's figures [1] Investment Trends - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintained a high growth rate of around 10% year-on-year, supported by fiscal policies and increased special bonds [2] - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, indicating expansion in production and new orders, which suggests a positive cycle of demand improvement leading to increased production [2] - Government consumption subsidies are set at 300 billion yuan, an increase of 150 billion yuan from last year, aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing consumer confidence [2] Export Dynamics - The export sector is significantly influenced by U.S. tariff policies, with recent indications of potential easing in trade tensions, which could positively impact Chinese exporters [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggested that the current tariff situation is unsustainable, hinting at possible future negotiations that may alleviate pressure on exports [3] A-Share Market Outlook - A-share companies have shown positive earnings growth, with major indices like CSI 300 and SSE 50 reporting positive revenue and net profit growth [4] - The recovery in consumption and strong performance in the capital market are expected to support the rebound of blue-chip indices, which will gradually benefit smaller-cap indices as well [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Trump administration is showing a willingness to negotiate with China regarding tariffs, suggesting a potential reduction from the current 145% [1][2] - Trump expressed optimism about reaching a fair trade agreement with China within the next 2 to 3 weeks, indicating a proactive approach to negotiations [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, stated that discussions with China have not yet begun and emphasized the need for a structured negotiation mechanism [2] Group 2 - There are indications that the U.S. government may consider reducing tariffs to a range of 50-65%, although this has been denied by Mnuchin [2] - Mnuchin highlighted that high tariffs are unsustainable and that a trade halt between the U.S. and China does not benefit either party [2] - The U.S. administration is cautious about making unilateral concessions, insisting that China must first adjust its tariffs and non-tariff barriers [1][2]

Market Analysis - Dow Jones 30 has gapped to the upside and is approaching the crucial 40,100 area, which has been significant in the past, indicating potential volatility ahead [1] - The S&P 500 has also gapped higher, with the 5,000 region appearing to be a market floor and the 5,500 level potentially acting as a ceiling due to previous market behavior [3] Volume and Market Sentiment - There has been a noticeable increase in trading volume over the past week, suggesting strong interest in re-entering the stock market, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [2] - The market's reaction to tariff negotiations has been significant, with positive news leading to sharp upward movements, highlighting the sensitivity of the market to trade discussions [4]