策 略 研 究 华福证券 35 只医药生物主题走出见底形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 35 只医药生物主题走出见底形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速 的主题指数数量分别有 153、41、47、11 只。其中，153 只见底形态的主 题指数多为医药生物、电力设备和计算机行业，而 41 只突破形态的主题指 数中多数为农林牧渔和有色金属行业。47 只主升形态的主题指数主要包含 国防军工、通信和电子行业；而 11 只加速形态的主题指数则多为国防军工 行业。 人形机器人、Deepseek 主题的交易热度持续回升，但对应龙头股收盘 价仍低于 MA60 的位置。我 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market in May is expected to show a pattern of "weight index rebound and active technology growth" [2] - Economic data indicates concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on exports, but ample fiscal funds can counteract this, leading to a stable economic outlook [2] - The end of annual and quarterly report disclosures has resulted in a long-awaited upward inflection point in corporate profit growth [2] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, driven by both policy and performance [4] - Investors are advised to balance defensive and growth strategies, focusing on sectors with high earnings certainty and clear policy catalysts while being cautious of external risks [4] Group 3 - The June Federal Reserve meeting is expected to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, with an emphasis on increasing uncertainty [5] - The analysis framework suggests that current U.S. economic data and inflation expectations have reduced the likelihood of rate cuts, with expectations of two or fewer cuts within the year [6] - The market is likely to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by Trump's tariff policies and unclear prospects for the U.S. stock market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of equity and bond markets, highlighting the impact of external shocks and policy measures on investment strategies, with a focus on technology assets, domestic demand, and dividend-focused investments [2][5][11]. Recent Market Review - In April 2025, equity markets experienced a downturn due to heightened risk aversion amid external shocks, while bond markets saw a rally following tariff impacts, with the Wande Bond Index recording a positive return of 0.37% [2][5]. - The Wande Active Stock Fund Index, Wande Stock Fund Total Index, and Wande Mixed Fund Total Index reported declines of -2.79%, -2.92%, and -1.78% respectively [5]. - The bond market showed resilience with the Wande Medium to Long-term Pure Bond Index rising by 0.57% and the Short-term Pure Bond Index increasing by 0.29% [5]. Equity Fund Allocation Strategy - In the absence of favorable fundamentals, investment strategies are shifting towards industry trends and thematic investments, with a focus on technology assets, domestic demand, and stable high-dividend sectors [2][11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of defensive assets in the current market environment, particularly in light of the ongoing tariff disputes between the US and China [11]. Fixed Income Fund Allocation Strategy - The outlook for May suggests that interest rates may reach new lows following recent monetary easing measures, with expectations for further growth-supporting policies [3][15]. - The article outlines a strategy for Fixed Income Plus funds, categorizing them into low, medium, and high volatility segments, while favoring high-grade credit bonds and stable dividend-focused funds [3][15]. Fund Performance Review - The article provides a performance review of public funds, noting that various fund indices experienced declines in April, with value and balanced style indices performing slightly better than growth style indices [7][8]. - The agricultural and pharmaceutical sectors showed strong performance, with the Agricultural sector rising by 2.21% and the Pharmaceutical sector increasing by 0.54% [8][9]. Historical Performance of Selected Indices - The Active Equity Preferred Index has achieved a cumulative net value of 1.0158 since its inception, outperforming the Active Stock Fund Index by 14.05% [14]. - The Short-term Bond Fund Preferred Index has a cumulative net value of 1.0319, with a slight outperformance of 0.58% relative to its benchmark [18]. - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Preferred Index has a cumulative net value of 1.0598, outperforming its benchmark by 0.23% [22].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant market adjustment in April 2025, with equity markets experiencing a downturn due to external shocks, while the bond market saw a rapid increase in value following tariff impacts [5][12][13] - The report emphasizes a shift towards industry trend investments and thematic investments in the equity sector, particularly focusing on technology assets, domestic demand, and stable high-dividend sectors [5][20] - The report notes that the bond market is expected to maintain a loose monetary environment following interest rate cuts, with a potential for further growth policies to be introduced to support economic recovery [7][29] Group 2 - The report outlines a strategic focus on three key areas for equity investments: technology assets, domestic demand, and dividend-focused investments, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [20][21] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various fund indices, indicating that the agricultural and pharmaceutical sectors showed resilience, while sectors like new energy and technology faced challenges [16][19] - The report discusses the construction of fund portfolios, recommending a mix of low, medium, and high volatility fixed-income funds to balance risk and return, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and managing credit risk [39][40][41]

Group 1 - The issuance of funds remains strong, with 51 funds scheduled for release in May, including 28 equity funds, 12 bond funds, 8 mixed funds, and 3 funds of funds (FOF) [1] - Equity products account for over 70% of the total issuance, with passive index funds and thematic ETFs being the main drivers [1][2] - There is a notable increase in demand for low-risk asset allocation, as evidenced by the concentrated launch of mid-to-long-term pure bond funds [1][3] Group 2 - Among the 36 planned equity products, 21 are passive index funds, with major fund managers focusing on broad-based products covering key indices like the Sci-Tech 50 and CSI A50 [2] - Thematic ETFs are also actively being issued, with a focus on policy-supported sectors such as digital economy and aerospace [2][3] - Fund companies are shortening issuance cycles to capture emerging sectors, while cautioning against the risks of blindly chasing high valuations in thematic ETFs [3][4] Group 3 - The appeal of mid-to-long-term pure bond funds is attributed to their stable returns, ability to hedge equity volatility, and favorable liquidity management [4] - These funds are positioned as a preferred choice during periods of declining risk appetite, with a focus on long-duration bonds for higher yield potential [4][5] - The competitive landscape for ETFs is intensifying, with first-mover advantages and operational capabilities becoming critical for success [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to show a pattern of "weight index rebound and active technology growth" in May, with a focus on investing in industries with improved performance after the earnings disclosure period [1][2]. Market Outlook - After the earnings disclosure period, the market will actively invest in industries with improved performance, and as it enters a performance vacuum, new industry trends are emerging, making thematic investments likely to return [2][3]. - The market's downward adjustment space is limited due to the stabilizing effect of the central bank, which is expected to enhance risk appetite and lead to a return of financing balances [2][4]. Style and Industry Configuration - A-shares are expected to shift towards small-cap growth styles as seasonal effects weaken, driven by improved earnings growth and easing trade tensions [3]. - Key industries to focus on include computing, automotive, machinery (automation and general equipment), non-ferrous metals, social services, and agriculture, with an emphasis on sectors recovering from tariff impacts and those experiencing local economic improvements [3][6]. Liquidity and Capital Supply-Demand - The market's risk appetite is anticipated to recover in May, with financing funds likely to flow back into the market [4]. - The stock market saw net inflows in April, with ETFs becoming the main source of incremental capital, while financing funds experienced net outflows due to decreased risk appetite [4]. Mid-Cycle Prosperity and Industry Recommendations - The focus is on sectors that are recovering from tariff impacts and showing signs of economic improvement, particularly in consumer services, high-tech manufacturing, and real estate [5][6]. - Recommended sectors include consumer services (home appliances, furniture, jewelry), new energy vehicles, and high-tech manufacturing, with a focus on areas with high or improving prosperity [6]. Track and Industry Trend Investment - The 2025 Shanghai Auto Show highlighted the debut of humanoid robots, showcasing advancements in automotive technology and AI applications [7].

■■ 回顾：亚太股市重拾外资关注 在特朗普新政与美国经济走弱的预期影响下，逆向投资成为了2025年一季度最有效的投资策略。过去两年大 幅上涨的美日股市收跌，而恒生指数领跑亚太。欧洲国家在财政赤字扩大和俄乌冲突停火可能性上升的背景 下领跑发达国家股市。此外Deepseek等AI agent获得了更广泛的市场关注，并带动全球科技投资者进行国别 资产再平衡，这成为了推动中国科技股表现的另外一个因素。 基于美国经济走弱、美联储政策摇摆以及特朗普政府带动地缘风险升温这三点因素，我们认为国际资金将持 续出现交易一致性的松动，国际投资者将开始尝试寻求美国资产以外的备选投资方案。我们认为国际资本流 出美股所面临的"资产荒"将成为影响二季度全球股市最重要的驱动因素，面对诸多不确定性，具备资金规模 容量优势的中国股市（A股及港股）有望成为外资全球配置的重要选项。此外，当前基本面的改善趋势仍未 成为市场共识，且市场仍需要更充分的数据验证经济的复苏趋势，因此我们认为资金面的变化在二季度将较 基本面有更强的定价权。虽然海外地缘不确定性将加剧市场的波动率水平，但资金面改善将有望通过估值扩 张带动A股市场走强。 下调对沪深300的净利润增 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the TMT sector has collectively shown "bottoming" signals, with 256 indices indicating a bottoming pattern, primarily within the TMT sector, while 19 indices have broken out, mainly in the downstream consumption sector, particularly in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and warning of peak signals, focusing on quantitative screening of four patterns and constructing trading heat indicators to track popular themes [9][12]. - The trading heat for humanoid robots has decreased to 45%, with the closing price of Changsheng Bearing being 9.4% below its 60-day moving average, while the trading heat for Deepseek has dropped to 46%, with Daily Interaction's closing price being 17.6% below its 60-day moving average [4][20]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the thematic investment data tracking system will be regularly updated to provide investors with objective references for capturing market trends [3][9]. - The report notes that the majority of the 256 indices showing a bottoming pattern are concentrated in the TMT sector, suggesting potential recovery opportunities in this area [12]. - The report provides insights into the adjustment levels of leading stocks corresponding to the themes being monitored, indicating a need for caution as trading heat declines [20].

E s s e n t i a l s | 08 Apr 2025 08:46:22 ET │ 22 pages Global Theme Machine Theme Investing Weathers Volatile Markets CITI'S TAKE Using the Citi Global Theme Machine, we analyse the dynamic attractiveness of 93 global themes mapped across nearly 5000 listed companies by 200+ Citi Fundamental Analysts. Last month we undertook our annual theme review and stock remapping in order to update the model: Global Theme Machine: Remapping Themes for 2025. If interested in the full dataset, please contact us – we wi ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the transition patterns of six cyclical growth industries: new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, semiconductors, smartphones, mobile internet, and optical modules, proposing an investment framework of "cash flow improvement → capacity construction → profit release" to identify the conversion nodes from thematic consensus to performance realization [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Framework - Thematic investment focuses on the period from "concept germination" to "narrative consensus," relying on market imagination of long-term prospects to drive valuation increases, emphasizing unrefuted growth expectations [2]. - Cyclical growth investment captures "industry transition momentum" by identifying mismatches between cash flow improvement and low ROE during periods of unclear narrative consensus, establishing an odds advantage [2]. - The article utilizes the Geske option model to quantify the non-linear value of technological generational differences, anchoring the pricing boundaries of thematic investments [2]. Group 2: Industry Review - New Energy Vehicles: The evolution of China's new energy vehicle industry shows a clear three-stage path: feasibility verification starting in 2008, product breakthrough with mass production and battery technology iteration, and penetration explosion leading to a valuation system reconstruction [5][6]. - Photovoltaics: The Chinese photovoltaic industry has experienced three cycles characterized by policy-driven global installation surges, domestic policy support leading to grid parity, and a current phase of high growth driven by carbon neutrality and structural overcapacity [12][19]. - Semiconductors: The Chinese semiconductor industry has undergone three transitions, starting with basic production line construction, followed by accelerated policy-driven autonomy, and currently focusing on advanced process research and development amid US-China tensions [23][24]. Group 3: Future Investment Opportunities - The article suggests focusing on long-term investment opportunities in technology manufacturing fields such as AI+, intelligent driving, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, biomanufacturing, future energy, and advanced semiconductor processes [1][2].