Market Overview - The A-share market experienced overall fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.12% at 3635.13 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.26% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17102.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 1162 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The market sentiment is currently neutral to weak, with over 2800 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The "anti-involution" and "Yajiang" themes showed strong performance today, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, building materials, infrastructure, steel, and photovoltaics leading the gains [1] - Conversely, the technology sector faced collective weakness, with software, computing, and chip industries leading the declines [1][6] Steel Industry Insights - Steel companies have shown a continuous recovery in profitability in the first half of the year, despite weak downstream demand leading to a decline in major steel prices [4] - The profitability rate of steel mills has stabilized around 60% since bottoming out in September last year [4] - The demand for steel is expected to be supported by a recovery in the real estate sector, with new construction and completion areas showing signs of improvement [7] Policy and Future Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing its conclusion, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" is set to begin, with a focus on innovation-driven development and the cultivation of globally competitive emerging industries [8] - The artificial intelligence sector is expected to see significant growth, particularly in hardware and software applications, with a recommendation to focus on chip-related ETFs [8][9] Investment Opportunities - The steel ETF (515210) has shown a 1.14% increase today and a 2.74% increase over the past five days, indicating strong market interest [2] - The semiconductor sector remains in a high prosperity phase, with significant growth in sales and revenue for related companies, suggesting continued investment opportunities in chip ETFs (512760) and semiconductor equipment ETFs (159516) [8][9]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The paper industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to address the issue of overcapacity and promote the exit of backward production capacity. Although the industry will remain under pressure in the short term, medium to long-term investment opportunities are emerging [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Status: Overcapacity and Intensified "Involution" Dilemma - The main contradiction in the domestic paper industry is the mismatch between supply and demand, with production capacity growth far exceeding demand since 2020. For instance, the capacity for boxboard paper is projected to reach 47.77 million tons in 2024, while the apparent consumption is only 35.33 million tons, indicating a capacity surplus of approximately 1.4 to 2.1 times [16][18]. - The prices and profitability of major paper types have dropped to historical lows due to this supply-demand imbalance, leading to widespread losses in the industry. The total profit of the paper and paper products industry fell to 52 billion yuan in 2024, with losses from unprofitable companies reaching 16.8 billion yuan [26][27]. - The industry's operating indicators show a continuous decline in the operating rate, which has dropped from 80-90% to 60-70%, reflecting both proactive production cuts by companies and insufficient market demand [28][30]. 2. Historical Insights: Lessons from the 2016-2018 Supply-Side Reform - The supply-side reform from 2016 to 2018 was driven by strong national policies, leading to a market clearing of backward production capacity and an increase in industry concentration. The number of paper enterprises decreased from 6,841 in February 2016 to 6,594 by mid-2017 [39][40]. - The price surge during this period was a result of effective supply-side reforms and steady demand growth, with major paper types experiencing price increases of over 40% [45][48]. 3. Core Judgments: Is This Round of "Anti-Involution" a New Cycle or a New Story? - The current paper industry has several logical foundations for initiating a new cycle of recovery, similar to those present before the last round of supply-side reforms. These include government policies aimed at addressing "involution" and the natural market clearing dynamics due to widespread losses [57][58]. - The new national standard for energy consumption limits in the paper industry, effective from May 2025, will impose stricter requirements, potentially accelerating the exit of outdated production capacity [59][61].

东方证券研报指出，此次《南京照相馆》大幅超预期，也带热了票房大盘，有望给票房大盘贡献30亿元 增量，驱动近期电影票房回暖。《长安的荔枝》《罗小黑战记2》等多部同期在映电影也因大盘热度提 升带来观影提升。 一位电影行业资深从业者直言，近年来观众更倾向"择片而观"，热门档期和大制作影片仍能吸引大量观 众，但日常观影频次面临挑战。 靳斌认为，当前"单片扛市"的现象是电影市场转型期的阵痛，反映出从规模扩张向质量升级的结构性换 挡。短期内头部效应仍将持续，长期需通过供给侧改革，如档期均衡、技术普惠，以及需求侧激活，如 分众创作、消费场景创新，来构建健康生态。"只有当腰部力量崛起、多元内容共生时，中国电影才能 真正实现从'爆款驱动'到生态驱动的质变。"靳斌如此表示。 灯塔专业版数据分析师陈晋表示，今年暑期档大盘票房多次"逆跌"，展现良好势头。《南京照相馆》为 最大黑马，累计票房已突破18亿元，这也是今年春节档后票房最高的影片，持续领跑暑期档票房榜。 "暑期档定档影片达128部（含待映），其中剧情片45部，动画片29部。丰富的类型供给有望满足多元观 影需求，推动市场形成多轮观影热潮。整体而言，今年暑期档头部影片竞争力突出， ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Analyze the lead - zinc market from a global macro perspective, exploring the relationship between macro factors and lead - zinc, and the impact of "anti - involution" and fiscal policies on lead - zinc prices [1][6] - There are signs of endogenous kinetic energy repair, including the possible start of an active inventory replenishment cycle and improvement in PMI [36][39] - The central price of lead - zinc is related to GDP growth and industrial added - value [42][44] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Macro and Lead - Zinc Relationship - In terms of macro - attributes, the order is gold > copper > aluminum > zinc > lead, and lead has a very weak macro - attribute [4] - Analyze the relationship between lead - zinc and coal, copper, and use coal to understand "anti - involution" and copper to understand global fiscal policies [6] 3.2 "Anti - Involution" and Lead - Zinc Price Performance - Historically, during "supply - side reforms", lead - zinc often rose together with stocks and commodities. It is necessary to analyze the intensity of the current "anti - involution" [9] - From 2010 to 2025, lead and zinc prices showed different percentage changes during different "anti - involution" periods. For example, from 2016 - 2017, lead rose 141.6% and zinc rose 212.9%, while since July 2025, lead decreased 3.1% and zinc increased 2.2% [11] 3.3 Reasons for "Anti - Involution" - "Involution" refers to a vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources without overall revenue growth, and production factor prices deviate from value [15] - The purpose of "anti - involution" is to reverse the situation of "quantity increase and price decrease". In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, and the PPI - CPI gap continued to widen [18] 3.4 Fiscal Policies and Lead - Zinc Market - Fiscal policies are crucial as high resident and enterprise leverage ratios make fiscal policies determine the economic performance differences among countries. For example, China's exports are related to fiscal policies [30] - China's fiscal policy is continuously strengthening, and the US is also implementing fiscal expansion. Global major countries are all conducting fiscal expansion [33][34] 3.5 Endogenous Kinetic Energy Repair - There are signs of an active inventory replenishment cycle (profit increase and inventory increase), and PPI and industrial enterprise profits have basically bottomed out [38] - From the perspective of the difference between enterprise and resident deposits, PMI is expected to improve after the third quarter [41] 3.6 Determinants of Lead - Zinc Central Price - The IMF has raised this year's GDP growth forecast to 3% and predicts a slight recovery of global economic growth in 2025, which is related to the central price of lead - zinc [42] - Industrial added - value provides a more accurate perspective for determining the central price of lead - zinc [44]

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250808：高位整理 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/8 | 指标 单位 今值 变动 | | | 近期趋势 | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,100.00 0.00% | | | | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,655.00 -0.52% | | | | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 445.00 45.00 | | | | | | 46.00 | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 0.00% | | | | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 50,110.00 -2.41% | | | | | | 元/吨 | -4,110.00 1,235.00 基差 | | | | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 9,100.00 0.00% | | | | | | 9,200.00 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 元/吨 0.00% | | | | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 ...

昨天看到一篇文章，大概就是在表达当下政府引导基金的困境吧。 他说：一级市场和二级市场的"活水"断了，钱投不出去，退不回来，政府基金自然成了"死水"。 就是退出困难，属于一级市场的普遍现象吧。持续好几年了。 然后他分析原因嘛，前面都没啥问题，最后他给了一条出路，我觉得很莫名其妙。 他说：解决这个问题只有一个办法，放开、放松IPO审核，退出通道通畅，一二级活水流动起来，当活 水干涸，万亿基金成了"死水" 。 确实没想到，他分析了半天，最后给出了这样一个解决办法，我估计是不是他太过于焦虑了，喝多了， 犯糊涂了。 这比那抵制对赌的还吓人呢。 "放开、放松IPO审核，退出通道通畅"，这啥意思？就是让垃圾项目也能上市流通呗，降低审核标准。 咱们折腾这么多年，罚了没了好几个大所，抓了这么多人，好不容易股市有点起色，市场有点信心，要 让我们重蹈覆辙啊？ 本末倒置啊，如果真这样搞了，结果就是一级市场，二级市场都成死水了。 哎，我也没有人身攻击的意思哈。你看他们的思路，永远是搞资金盘，找接盘侠，玩跑得快的游戏。 下意识解决问题的思路，就是希望放松监管，让二级市场接盘，让韭菜们买这个万亿的单，他们就从来 没想过问题的根源。 这就是 ...

Summary of Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is nearing the end of a down cycle, with frequent accidents indicating increased operational pressure on companies. The second half of 2024 saw multiple accidents among leading firms, reflecting the impact of long-term losses on safety investments, suggesting the bottom of the cycle is approaching [1][2][3]. - Capital expenditure in the petrochemical sector has significantly decreased, with a projected decline of 20% for the entire year of 2024 and a 18% drop in Q1 2025. This reduction in new projects is expected to alleviate supply-demand pressure and create conditions for industry recovery [1][2][4]. - The shutdown of overseas production capacity has become a critical variable, with Europe shutting down 12 million tons of capacity. This, combined with reduced domestic capital expenditure and policy support, is expected to slow global supply growth and gradually digest demand, potentially marking a turning point in the cycle by Q4 of this year [1][3][4]. Key Points on Policy and Support - Increased government support is evident, with five ministries conducting surveys on production capacities over 20 years old, similar to supply-side reforms. This is expected to facilitate the exit of outdated facilities from the market, creating conditions for a new round of economic prosperity and enhancing safety and environmental standards in the industry [1][4][6]. - The government is also promoting enterprise management within industrial parks, effectively eliminating some small-scale outdated capacities, which will improve the overall safety and environmental standards of the industry [6]. Sub-industry Performance - Sub-industries such as refining, phosphate fertilizers, polycarbonate (PC), and polyester filament are expected to perform well due to low capacity growth rates (below 5%). The overall market environment is improving, which is likely to lead these sub-industries into a prosperous state [1][5]. - China holds over half of the global chemical production capacity, and moderate domestic growth alongside overseas reductions will benefit the development of these sub-industries [5]. Company-Specific Insights Wanhua Chemical - Wanhua Chemical's polyurethane business remains a stable profit source, while its petrochemical segment contributes less due to competitive pressures. The fine chemicals and new materials segment has significant potential for profit contribution through capacity expansion and customer development in the coming years [2][15][18]. - The company has seen substantial fixed asset increases, with fixed assets rising from 65.2 billion in 2021 to 180 billion in Q1 2025, indicating strong performance potential in the new cycle [10][11]. - Wanhua's MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) market position is robust, holding a 34% global market share, and it is the largest producer. The company is expected to benefit from future demand growth in MDI applications, particularly in construction and energy-efficient solutions [25][29][30]. Financial Performance and Projections - Wanhua is projected to see significant earnings growth by 2026, with expected incremental profits ranging from 1 billion to 2 billion, driven by project expansions and market recovery [12][44]. - The company has undergone substantial capital expenditures totaling approximately 150-160 billion RMB, primarily from 2022 to 2024, which have yet to fully translate into profits due to industry downturns [20]. Market Dynamics and Challenges - The chemical industry faces challenges from aging production facilities, with many operating for over 20 years. The government is expected to implement policies to phase out these outdated facilities, which could significantly enhance industry profitability [7][8]. - Concerns regarding chemical product demand persist, particularly in light of potential anti-dumping measures from overseas markets. However, the overall demand for chemical products remains relatively inelastic due to their essential nature in daily life [9]. Conclusion - The chemical industry is on the cusp of a recovery phase, supported by reduced capital expenditures, government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacities, and improving market conditions. Leading companies like Wanhua Chemical are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with significant growth potential in their core business segments.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **pig farming industry** in the context of the "anti-involution" policy aimed at addressing low-price disorderly competition and promoting supply-side reforms [1][2][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy**: The policy aims to control basic production capacity, breeding sow inventory, and the weight of pigs at market release, thereby preventing drastic fluctuations in production and prices [1][8]. 2. **Supply-Side Reforms**: The reforms are expected to lead to an optimized supply structure in the pig farming industry, enhancing overall efficiency and resource conservation [1][3]. 3. **Economic Environment**: The current economic environment is characterized by a transition from financial re-inflation to food re-inflation, with significant changes in household savings and investment behaviors [4][5]. 4. **Inflation Understanding**: Inflation levels should be understood through both supply reform and demand stimulation, with a focus on supply-side adjustments before demand-side interventions [6]. 5. **PPI Impact**: A narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to have a strong impact on asset allocation strategies [6]. Specific Measures in Pig Farming - The anti-involution measures include controlling the number of breeding sows, reducing the weight of pigs at market release, and timely reporting of production data [1][8]. - The goal is to prevent overproduction and stabilize prices, which is crucial for maintaining profitability in the sector [7][14]. Industry Challenges and Responses 1. **Overcapacity Issues**: The pig farming industry has faced overcapacity challenges, with a slow exit of outdated production capacity despite profitability since May 2024 [2][9]. 2. **Animal Health Industry**: The veterinary medicine and vaccine sectors are experiencing intense competition, with many companies reporting declining performance [2][10][16]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The market for veterinary products is expected to improve as the anti-involution policy encourages innovation and higher standards for new product approvals [16][18]. Future Projections - The breeding sow inventory is expected to gradually decrease, impacting pig supply and prices in the second half of 2026 [14]. - Short-term price pressures are anticipated due to seasonal factors, but overall price stability is expected as supply adjustments take effect [15]. Investment Opportunities - Companies with efficiency advantages in pig farming and leading firms in the veterinary medicine sector are identified as having high investment value [19]. - Specific companies such as Keqian Bio, Ruipu Bio, and Huisheng Bio are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the anti-involution policy [19]. Conclusion - The anti-involution policy is set to reshape the pig farming industry, addressing overcapacity and enhancing product quality while also impacting related sectors such as veterinary medicine. The overall economic environment and inflation dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping future market conditions and investment strategies [1][5][20].

基金分析报告 "反内卷"相关基金产品梳理 2025 年 08 月 07 日 ➢ "反内卷"下行业投资机会梳理。 1. 在《八月配置视点："反内卷"下哪些行业蕴含投资机会？》中，我们复盘了 本轮"反内卷"行情与 2015-2018 年供给侧改革之间的相似性，并梳理了"反 内卷"下的行业投资机会。在上一轮"供给侧改革"中，主要由三种逻辑演绎， 即政策效应、行业库存周期处于被动去库存到主动补库存转变点、行业景气度提 升。 2. 本轮"反内卷"主题行业覆盖面更广，从出清反转弹性来看，较为看好光伏、 医疗器械，从景气确定性来看，较为看好化工以及建材。 ➢ "反内卷"相关基金产品梳理。 1. 主动权益基金：先根据"反内卷"概念涉及的行业成分股构建股票池，并要 求主动权益型基金在近一年和最新一期重仓中，对此行业股票池重仓占比大于 40%；并要求基金当前规模大于 1 亿元、开放申购、管理时长大于 1 年。 2. ETF 基金：在同一类概念产品中，根据产品规模（占比 30%）、近一月成交 额（占比 30%）、费率（占比 20%）、近一月跟踪误差（占比 10%）、近一月夏普 比率（占比 10%），进行综合打分，并选择得分最高的前 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has introduced ten anti-involution policies to stabilize growth in various industries, continuing the supply-side reform initiated in 2016, but with a different economic backdrop characterized by weak PPI and sluggish demand [1][2] - The anti-involution policies aim to address overcapacity and low-price competition, with a focus on optimizing production capacity and regulating local investment behaviors [3][2] - The historical context of the rebar steel industry during the 2016 reforms is referenced, indicating that specific measures can lead to price increases, as seen when the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued supportive policies for the steel and coal industries [5][6] Group 2 - The current economic environment shows that the core issue has shifted from supply-demand mismatch to insufficient demand, making the challenges of the anti-involution policies more significant than in 2016 [7][8] - Demand-side indicators such as M1 growth and large infrastructure projects, like the 1.2 trillion yuan Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station, are crucial for predicting future demand for rebar steel [8][9] - The uncertainty in U.S.-China relations, particularly regarding tariffs and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, could impact global liquidity and, consequently, the steel market [10] Group 3 - Recommended sectors for investment include coal, ordinary steel, cement, glass, and liquor, as these industries are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policies due to higher state-owned enterprise representation [11] - In the steel sector, companies with regional advantages, high dividend potential, and those in high-end special steel are suggested for investment, while smaller, less competitive firms may face greater pressure [12]