Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][66] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for stable real estate market policies, including controlling inventory and improving supply, as highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference [3][13] - It notes that the easing of monetary and fiscal policies in China is expected to support the real estate market's recovery, with a focus on stabilizing transactions and prices [3][6] - The report anticipates a turning point in the building materials sector's capacity cycle due to supply-side reforms and a recovery in home-buying willingness driven by lower interest rates [6][13] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report outlines several key policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including the encouragement of purchasing existing homes for affordable housing and reforms to the housing provident fund system [3][13] - It mentions that the sales area of commercial housing has been declining since its peak in 2021, indicating the market is entering a bottoming phase [3][6] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 341.1 CNY/ton, showing a 0.3% increase week-on-week but a 17.9% decrease year-on-year [4][14] - The average ex-factory price of glass (5.00mm) is 1091.4 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.0% decrease week-on-week and a 19.5% decrease year-on-year [4][25] Sector Review - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 0.18%. The building materials index decreased by 1.41% [5][52] - Among sub-sectors, fiberglass manufacturing increased by 1.11%, while cement manufacturing decreased by 1.21% [5][52] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building materials companies showing signs of bottoming [6][58]

审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货工业硅、多晶硅年报 关注工业硅与多晶硅套利机会 20251215 作者：陈小国 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 9 成本与利润 2 产业链简图 3 产业国际形势 4 产业国内形势 6 供应 7 需求 8 库存 1 年度观点 5 产业链政策 10 技术分析 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点 2025年行情回顾 图：工业硅期货价/现货价/基差（元/吨） -900 -400 100 600 1100 1600 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 100 ...

Group 1: Institutional Trading Insights - On the day, 43 stocks were listed on the institutional trading leaderboard, with 23 seeing net purchases and 20 experiencing net sales [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net purchases were Zhengbang Technology (900 million), Leike Defense (151 million), and Zhenlei Technology (147 million) [1] - Leike Defense's satellite application business has established a comprehensive technology system, providing remote sensing data solutions for key national economic sectors [1] Group 2: Aerospace Industry Developments - Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Guoxing Aerospace signed an agreement to establish China's first space computing joint laboratory, focusing on the demand for space-based computing networks [2] - The collaboration aims to form a globally influential space computing industry cluster [2] - The aerospace industry in Shenyang is set to expand, with plans to enhance capabilities in large aircraft assembly and develop a complete industry chain covering manufacturing and operational services [2] Group 3: Consumer Sector Trends - Dongbai Group focuses on retail and commercial real estate development [4] - The core product of Huanlejia is fruit canned goods, particularly orange and peach cans [4] - Recent reports indicate a price increase for high-end liquor, with the wholesale price of a 25-year-old Flying Moutai bottle rising by 20 yuan to 1500 yuan, reflecting a cumulative increase of 6% over two days [4][5] - Huachuang Securities suggests that service consumption could be a key driver for domestic demand in 2026, with significant potential in holiday policy optimization and consumption voucher issuance [4] Group 4: High-End Liquor Market Dynamics - Moutai's supply-side reform is seen as a significant change in the high-end liquor industry, focusing on stabilizing prices and reshaping the channel ecosystem [5] - The food and beverage sector is currently valued at historical lows, with the potential for investment opportunities as market sentiment shifts [5]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张玫 北京报道 12月12日，由华夏时报社主办的第十九届华夏机构投资者年会暨华夏金融（保险）科技论坛在北京举 行。鹏华基金指数与量化投资部基金经理闫冬在论坛上分享了他的市场洞察。 他表示，2025年有色金属板块的强劲表现超出预期，其背后是供给刚性、新兴需求及全球库存转移等多 重因素共同支撑的新周期逻辑。同时，他强调当前"反内卷"政策正从法治化和约束地方政府投资冲动等 根本层面重塑行业生态，为布局价格修复与盈利改善的顺周期方向带来了中期机遇。 "反内卷"政策重塑投资逻辑：法治化控产能，核心在于约束地方投资冲动 将视角转回国内，闫冬重点分析了"反内卷"政策带来的投资影响。他认为，该政策自2025年7月发力 后，对市场风格再平衡起到了关键作用，并以鹏华旗下化工ETF规模从二季度的十几亿大幅增长至三季 度的近两百亿为例，说明机构资金正积极博弈PPI修复的预期。 他对比了本轮"反内卷"与2016年供给侧改革的差异。当前产能过剩问题遍布更多行业，且民营企业参与 度深，单纯依靠行政手段已难以快速奏效。因此，本次政策的核心路径转向"依法依规"，通过修订《价 格法》《反不正当竞争法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of Nova Coffee as a new benchmark in the Chinese coffee market, highlighting its rapid expansion and innovative business model that focuses on sustainable growth rather than mere scale [4][6]. Group 1: Growth Model - Nova Coffee has achieved a remarkable GMV growth of 400% year-on-year while maintaining a strong cup volume increase, indicating effective expansion rather than superficial growth [20][22]. - The company has a monthly store opening rate of approximately 1,000, with peak months reaching 1,800 new stores, surpassing historical expansion rates of competitors like Starbucks and Luckin Coffee [13][15]. - Nova's growth is characterized by a "speed and quality" model, breaking the traditional "scale paradox" where rapid expansion often leads to diminishing returns [10][11]. Group 2: Competitive Barriers - Nova Coffee has established a three-dimensional differentiation barrier by reconstructing "people, goods, and scenes," allowing it to maintain pricing power amidst fierce competition [30]. - The company focuses on health-conscious products, positioning itself against the trend of high-sugar offerings, thus capturing a unique market segment [31]. - Nova operates 24/7, maximizing asset utilization and enhancing ROI by breaking traditional time constraints in coffee shop operations [32][38]. Group 3: Digitalization and Delivery - Nova Coffee leverages its strong digital capabilities and delivery systems to capture online traffic, positioning itself as a "full-service flow operation center" [45][49]. - The company has amassed tens of millions of new members, creating a valuable digital asset that drives business decisions and enhances customer retention [47][48]. - Nova's external partnerships enable it to tap into the growing online food delivery market, which has seen daily orders increase from 100 million to 200 million [42][44]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The article posits that Nova Coffee's current scale is just the beginning, as it explores a "joint operation model" that allows for extensive market penetration without the traditional overhead costs [52][60]. - This model enables Nova to partner with existing retail outlets, significantly lowering the barriers to entry for coffee sales in various locations [53][59]. - The potential market for Nova is vast, with opportunities to penetrate millions of retail locations across China, far exceeding the limitations of traditional coffee shop models [60][64].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][64] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for stable real estate market policies, including controlling inventory and encouraging the construction of quality housing [3][13] - It highlights that the construction materials sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential recovery in housing demand due to lower interest rates and supportive policies [6][13] - The report notes that the market is becoming increasingly sensitive to policy easing as the sales area of commercial housing has been declining for over three years [3][6] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The central economic work conference has outlined measures to stabilize the real estate market, including promoting the construction of quality housing and reforming the housing provident fund system [3][13] - The report anticipates that the construction materials sector will see a turning point in the capacity cycle due to supply-side reforms and improved purchasing intentions driven by lower interest rates [6][13] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 341.1 CNY/ton, a 0.3% increase from last week but a 17.9% decrease year-on-year [4][14] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1091.4 CNY/ton, down 1.0% from last week and down 19.5% year-on-year [4][22] Sector Review - The construction materials index has decreased by 1.41%, with sub-sectors like glass manufacturing and cement manufacturing showing declines of 1.79% and 1.21%, respectively [5][51] - The report suggests that the construction materials sector's fundamentals and valuations are expected to recover further, with specific recommendations for stocks in the sector [6][51]

玻璃纯碱市场 2026 年年报 玻璃纯碱：春寒料峭处 双碳谋新篇 ——2025 年玻璃纯碱市场回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 魏朝明 Z0015738 摘要： 2025年浮法玻璃行业产线运行情况相对平稳，年内浮法玻璃日熔量稳定运行在16 万吨下方。截至12月初全国浮法玻璃生产线共计284条，在产216条，日熔量共计 154555吨。尽管玻璃需求和价格走势整体偏弱，年中玻璃价格受季节性因素及利好 消息带动波动显著，为行业带来盈利或者减亏的可能。玻璃产能稳定运行显示当前行 业亏损幅度及亏损周期尚不足以引发更多玻璃产线冷修从而带动行情反转。2026年玻 璃行业或将经历需求倒逼供应减量的市场化出清阶段。2026年度玻璃期现货价格波动 的核心区间为850-1250元/吨。 2025年纯碱供应形势保持平稳，岁末年初有新装置投产，2026年纯碱产能有进一 步增加预期。行业过剩压力增加，亏损程度加深。由于供应增加和需求下滑态势或于 2026年延续，纯碱产业需要积极关注期货及期权工具对管理生产经营风险的重要作用， 积极关注盘面情绪波动给出的套保机会。2026年度纯碱期现货价格波动的核心区间为 100 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is expected to experience both cyclical and growth opportunities in 2026 due to domestic supply-side reforms and demand-side expansion policies, alongside improved overseas demand. Oil prices are projected to stabilize around $60 per barrel, alleviating inventory pressure on chemicals. [4][12] - Key sectors to focus on include spandex, nylon, and rigid demand sectors like pesticides and fertilizers, particularly those with strong demand resilience. [4] Power Industry - The power industry is segmented into thermal, hydro, nuclear, and renewable energy, each presenting unique investment opportunities. [5][6] - Thermal power's capacity price has increased to over 50%, enhancing profitability, although its share of installed capacity is expected to decline. [5] - Hydro power is benefiting from improved water conditions, while nuclear power is set to experience a production peak between 2026 and 2027, indicating strong growth potential. [6][7][8] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals index has surged by 78% by the end of 2025, indicating a new upward cycle. Valuations remain within a safe range, with expectations of price increases driven by Fed rate cuts and improved US-China trade relations. [12] - Specific opportunities include increased demand for gold and silver, as well as investment prospects arising from copper supply shortages. [12] Building Materials Industry - The building materials sector is recovering confidence due to factors like the Western Development strategy and anti-involution policies. The fiberglass manufacturing sector has led the market with a 68% increase. [28][29] - Structural investment opportunities are anticipated in 2026, particularly in traditional materials like cement and glass, driven by urban renewal and new energy demands. [29][30] Key Investment Opportunities Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector is expected to maintain strong growth despite concerns over slowing demand for electric vehicle batteries. The sector is projected to grow at a rate of 10% to 15% in 2026, with significant demand from the energy storage market. [34][35] - Key materials such as electrolyte additives, particularly VC additives, are expected to see price increases due to their sensitivity and tight supply conditions. [37] Gold Market - The passage of the "Great Beauty Act" is anticipated to increase the US fiscal deficit, negatively impacting asset credit and accelerating global central bank gold purchases, supporting gold prices. A 10% increase in gold prices is expected by 2026. [3][14] - A-share gold companies are entering a growth phase in mining output, with performance expected to improve significantly. [14] Construction Sector - The construction industry should focus on urban renewal and major engineering projects, as well as opportunities arising from mergers and acquisitions. [18][27] - Key players in the construction of clean energy projects in the western regions, such as China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering, are recommended for tracking. [20][19] Additional Insights - The hydro power sector is expected to see strong support from improved water conditions, with significant growth potential in the long term. [7] - The nuclear power sector is projected to have a compound annual growth rate of around 10% due to a peak in new production. [8][9] - The building materials sector is expected to benefit from urban renewal policies and the demand for high-quality green materials as the real estate market evolves. [32][33]

近日，中国光伏行业协会在官方微信公众号发文称，北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司完成注册，标志着 光伏行业酝酿已久的"多晶硅产能整合收购平台"正式落地，这一举措被业内视为破解光伏行业"内卷 式"恶性竞争的关键。 该平台创新采用"两条腿走路"模式，通过"承债式收购+弹性封存压产能"双轨运行，依托"政府引导+行 业协同+市场化并购"的路径，从产业链源头的多晶硅环节切入，整治行业恶性竞争。在金融层面，平 台将承接数百亿元级潜在债务，既能化解银行与供应商的债务危机，也能推动多晶硅价格回归合理区 间，助力全产业链恢复"造血"功能。 在技术发展趋势上，国盛证券指出钙钛矿等新技术的产业化进程正在加速，相关设备厂商将迎来机遇； 江海证券则聚焦BC电池技术路线，认为该技术将成为头部企业实现盈利修复的重要抓手。 上下游产业链方面，多晶硅环节的整合将向上游传导至设备端，向下利好电池片、组件等环节的盈利修 复，同时电网、储能等配套环节也将随光伏装机量的合理释放迎来增量需求。 公司方面，据国盛证券等表示， 隆基绿能：作为光伏行业龙头，公司在多晶硅下游的硅片、组件环节布局深厚。 爱旭股份：公司为光伏电池片领域的核心企业 *免责声明：文章内容仅 ...

2025年全年行情主要由科技股搭台唱戏，而其余板块多数涨幅平平，新旧消费、公共设施、房地产等指 数表现不佳，不仅难寻超额收益，多只个股甚至跌幅剧烈，个别主题基金也在慢牛中折损净值。 行情步入年末，当下已经来到跨年布局的时点。多名基金经理指出，科技股或将继续担纲行情主线，但明年的 行情或将更加均衡， 顺周期板块 、消费板块等被"冷落"的公司投资机遇凸显；尤其是部分经历供给侧改革的 公司，受益于产业出清，或将作为新的高股息资产方向。 科技股或将继续担纲主线 年内，无论是"翻倍股"还是"翻倍基"多被以人工智能为代表的科技板块包揽，然而在经过一整年轰轰烈烈的科 技牛市后，部分科技股估值已处于相对高位。近期，此前重仓 光模块 、PCB概念的多只基金，在行情剧烈震 荡中净值却表现平稳，不难推测这部分基金或已降仓应对。 风格或将更为均衡 分行业来看，年内科技股的"一枝独秀"也意味着其余板块难以跟上大盘涨幅，除了创新药等个别板块以外，新 旧消费、公共设施均走势不佳，不仅难寻超额收益，多只个股甚至跌幅剧烈，个别主题基金也在慢牛中折损净 值。 虽然看好科技板块是公募基金的共识，但也有基金经理认为，明年的行情或许更加均衡。 永赢基 ...