Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cloud computing and internet giants, highlighting strong performance and growth potential in the sector [2][5]. Core Insights - Microsoft Azure's revenue growth exceeded expectations, with a year-over-year increase of 35%, driven by both AI and non-AI business segments [2][6][28]. - Meta has raised its capital expenditure (Capex) guidance for 2025 from $60-65 billion to $64-72 billion, reflecting confidence in AI's impact on advertising revenue [3][31]. - Google Cloud's revenue growth was stable at 28.1%, with expectations for continued performance due to strong demand and AI integration [2][36]. Summary by Sections Cloud Performance - Microsoft Azure reported a revenue of $26.8 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 35%, driven by AI contributing 16 percentage points and non-AI business contributing 19 percentage points [2][6][28]. - Google Cloud's revenue reached $12.26 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 28.1%, with expectations for stable growth throughout the year [2][36]. - Amazon AWS generated $29.27 billion in revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 16.9% and an operating margin of 39.5% [2][8]. Capital Expenditure - Meta's Capex guidance for 2025 was increased to $64-72 billion, emphasizing the role of AI in enhancing advertising efficiency [3][31]. - Google maintained its Capex guidance for 2025 at $75 billion, indicating a strong commitment to infrastructure investment [3][14]. - Microsoft expects its Capex for FY25 to exceed $85 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in cloud infrastructure [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that trade tensions have begun to impact advertising spending, particularly from Asia-Pacific retailers towards North America, leading to a cautious outlook for future ad revenues [4][24]. - Despite these challenges, the software sector has shown resilience, with the IGV ETF rising 29.7% since April 7, 2025, outperforming the Nasdaq index [25][24]. - Meta's advertising business showed a year-over-year increase in ad impressions by 5% and ad pricing by 10%, indicating a robust performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [31][32].

Macro News - The EU plans to impose tariffs on $1 trillion worth of US goods if negotiations fail [2] - The UK and India have reached a free trade agreement, with India reducing tariffs on 90% of UK imports, 85% of which will achieve zero tariffs within ten years [2] - The UK and US are expected to finalize a trade agreement this week aimed at reducing tariffs on automobiles and steel [2] - US Treasury Secretary opposes the issuance of a digital currency by the Federal Reserve [2] Institutional Views - Galaxy Futures indicates that the thawing of US-China trade relations may lead to silver prices fluctuating at high levels [3] - The market's risk aversion is expected to decrease due to the confirmation of US-China diplomatic engagement, although challenges in negotiations remain [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is highlighted as a key event to watch for potential clues on future interest rate cuts [3]

新华财经北京5月6日电在周一（5月5日）大幅拉涨约100美元之后，周二（5月6日）国际金价继续惯性 冲高。截至发稿时，伦敦现货黄金一度突破3380美元／盎司关口，纽约COMEX黄金期货最活跃合约期 价更是一度摸高至3395美元／盎司。以下是部分机构观点： 铜冠金源期货表示，目前来看，黄金依然受到避险需求增强的支撑。密切关注本周即将公布的美联储货 币政策决议。特朗普重申不会提前解除鲍威尔的主席职务，并再次呼吁美联储应降息以刺激经济增长。 尽管市场普遍预期美联储在本次会议上将维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变，但关税摩擦给美国经济前 景带来的不确定性加大，美联储的未来利率路径面临重新评估的压力。密切关注美联储经济展望与美联 储主席鲍威尔的讲话内容，以判断未来货币政策方向。 金瑞期货表示，当前市场风险偏好恢复，但是关税对经济的潜在负面影响并未解除，市场对关税缓解的 乐观预期停留在情绪层面，黄金的避险多头逻辑依然存在，叠加各国央行存在持续买入需求，因而底部 支撑较强。若后续美国经济出现实质性走弱信号，或关税政策进一步恶化，甚至关于关税的谈判细节不 及预期，均可能引发避险情绪反复，为贵金属价格提供新的上行动力。综 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a volatile consolidation pattern over three trading days, with an average daily turnover slightly exceeding 1 trillion yuan, while the Shanghai Composite Index faced a slight decline due to adjustments in bank stocks [1] - The market sentiment was dominated by uncertainties regarding tariffs, leading to a wait-and-see approach from both bulls and bears [1] - Positive signals regarding US-China tariff negotiations emerged, with the US indicating a willingness to negotiate, and China responding accordingly [1] Group 2 - The US announced a cancellation of tariff exemptions for small-value imports from China, which could have a negative impact on market sentiment [1] - The US GDP for the first quarter showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, which was worse than the expected decline of 0.1%, raising concerns about a potential recession [2] - Market expectations regarding the US economy's recession risk have increased, with a probability of approximately 57% for a recession by 2025, significantly higher than the 18% probability noted at the time of Trump's inauguration [2] Group 3 - Following the May Day holiday, A-shares are expected to continue fluctuating around tariff-related news, with uncertainty in finding a clear direction [3] - If tariff news improves, A-shares may gain some upward momentum, but the impact is likely to be limited due to the ongoing nature of tariff issues [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a watchful stance and consider adjusting their portfolio structure, with a focus on export-related stocks if tariff issues significantly ease [3]

盈利预测与估值：我们预测公司25-27 年实现营业收入272.3、299.1、308.1 亿元，同比+8.6%、+9.8%、 +3.0%；实现归母净利润30.4、33.4、36.1 亿元，同比+10.9%、+10.0%、+8.0%，对应PE 分别为10、 9、9 倍，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：豆粕价格大幅波动；原材料成本上涨；产品价格波动等 关税摩擦背景下公司业绩有望有益于豆粕涨价预期。中国大豆严重依赖进口，其中进口自美国大豆占比 约为21%，随着中美关税摩擦升温可能导致国内大豆价格上涨进而利多豆粕价格。同时，随着国家豆粕 减量替代工作推进，豆粕价格上涨有望加速替代进程，促进氨基酸产品需求增长。并且公司大原料副产 品业务利润跟随豆粕和玉米价格，因此豆粕价格上涨有利于公司业绩释放。 持续推进分红+回购，公司兼具防御属性。2024 年度公司计划实施现金分红和回购金额合计22.7 亿元， 占年度归属于上市公司股东净利润的比例82.84%。公司持续推进回购措施，截至2025 年3 月底，公司 通过集中竞价交易方式回购股份3571 万股，占公司总股本的1.25%，支付总额为3.52 亿元。 事件：公司发布202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view: The impact of tariffs on global commodity demand and domestic steel exports remains highly uncertain, but iron ore prices have already reflected a rather pessimistic outlook. The 09 contract dropped to a minimum of 670.5 yuan/ton last week, corresponding to a US dollar index of around 85, indicating an annual iron ore surplus of about 30 million tons. In the first half of the year, the supply - demand balance of iron ore won't be very loose, with a slight inventory build - up at ports expected according to the balance sheet. With the expectation of tariff relaxation and domestic policy support, iron ore prices are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound [7]. - This week's price trend: Iron ore prices rose first and then fell this week, mainly driven by finished steel. Given the weak export outlook and the potential short - term peak in domestic demand, the market is trading on the logic of macro - expectations and fundamental production cuts [7]. - This week's view: Vale and Rio Tinto released their quarterly production and sales reports, showing a year - on - year decline in Q1 production with no change in production targets. Recently, shipments from non - mainstream mines have decreased. In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable. Against the backdrop of a high basis and pre - holiday steel mill restocking, it is suitable for long positions. However, the pressure on single - sided positions lies in finished steel. Although the inventory reduction speed of rebar and hot - rolled coils is good this period, market concerns about exports are still obvious due to tariff frictions. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Tariff impact on demand and exports is uncertain, but iron ore prices reflected pessimism. The 09 contract hit a low, suggesting an annual surplus. First - half supply - demand is not overly loose, and prices may rebound with tariff and policy expectations [7]. - This week's price movement: Prices fluctuated due to finished steel, and the market traded on macro and production - cut logics [7]. - This week's view: Quarterly reports showed production decline, non - mainstream shipments decreased. Short - term fundamentals are okay, suitable for long positions with basis and restocking factors. Single - sided pressure comes from finished steel, and an arbitrage strategy is recommended [7]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights 3.2.1 Shipment - The total global iron ore shipment this period was 29.077 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,200 tons. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased significantly. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.548 million tons, and then increased by 418,000 tons in another comparison. Australian shipments were 17.063 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, with shipments to China increasing by 232,000 tons. Brazilian shipments were 7.285 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,000 tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.255 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.368 million tons [10]. 3.2.2 Demand - The daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons. The resumption speed of steel mills has slowed down, and the first - half peak of pig iron output may be around 2.43 million tons. Steel apparent demand continued to increase, and the inventory reduction speed was acceptable. However, seasonally, the demand peak is likely to occur from late April to early May, and the future steel export outlook is poor, so iron ore demand faces downward pressure [13]. 3.2.3 Port Inventory - The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.0951 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 85,400 tons. The port inventory was 140.56 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8502 million tons, indicating continued inventory reduction. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 90.5292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 242,100 tons [16]. 3.3 Relevant Data Charts 3.3.1 Spot Price and Basis - Data shows the prices and price changes of Qingdao Port PB powder, Super Special powder, and the basis over several days in April 2025 [21]. 3.3.2 Variety Spread - Multiple charts show the price differences between different iron ore varieties such as PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba powder, PB lump, etc. over the years from 2021 - 2025 [24][25][27]. 3.3.5 Pig Iron Output - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and daily average pig iron output data are presented, showing changes over time. For example, on April 18, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.04% [36].

作者：丁玎 邹婷 朱斌 杨立培 "对等关税"风暴来袭，但美国采购商来中国的脚步未被阻挡。在浙江义乌，4月是圣诞用品采购的重 要时点，在关税摩擦发生后，美国采购商还是来到了义乌，并继续下了订单。义乌国际商贸城的商户 告诉第一财经记者，义乌商品在服务、品控、价格上有一定程度的不可替代性，这也是美国客户依然 选择他们的重要理由。更现场、更财经，一探究竟！ 微信编辑：夏木 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle and lithium battery sectors continue to support steady growth in foreign trade exports from China [3] Group 1: Battery Export Growth - In the first quarter, domestic power battery exports reached 37.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [2] - In March alone, power battery exports were 13.9 GWh, showing a month-on-month growth of 8.6% and a year-on-year growth of 11.3% [2] - Among battery types, ternary batteries dominate exports, with 23 GWh exported in the first quarter, while lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 14.6 GWh [2] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Export Performance - Domestic exports of new energy passenger vehicles reached 419,000 units in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 39.6% [2] - Exports of new energy commercial vehicles totaled 23,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 230% [2] - Pure electric vehicle exports were 290,000 units, up 16.7% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid vehicle exports reached 152,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 160% [2] Group 3: Market Environment and Tariff Risks - The recent tariff policy from the Trump administration has raised tariffs on power batteries exported to the U.S. to 73.4% and on new energy vehicles to 147.5% [4] - The global tariff risks have increased due to the U.S. initiating a global tariff war, which may affect the competitiveness of domestic battery manufacturers in the U.S. market [5] - Although the U.S. accounts for a small portion of China's new energy exports, potential retaliatory tariffs could impact exports to Europe and other regions [6] Group 4: EU Agreement and Market Adaptation - A new agreement between the EU and China allows for a minimum price restriction on electric vehicle exports, replacing the previously planned 20%-50% tariffs set to take effect in October 2024 [6] - This agreement aims to maintain the price competitiveness of European automakers while enhancing the profit margins for exporting companies [6] - The ongoing tariff friction highlights the need for Chinese new energy companies to develop a new international awareness in increasingly competitive foreign markets [7]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The tariff environment has limited short-term disruptions to the pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on the global competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs [2][17][19] - Domestic innovative drug companies have captured significant market shares, such as BTK inhibitors holding 75% and PD-1/PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies over 70% in the domestic market [2][17] - Several Chinese innovative drugs are entering a harvest phase, with Zebutine expected to achieve sales of $2.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 105% [2][17] - A recommended list of leading biotech and pharmaceutical companies includes BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and Hengrui Medicine among others [2][17] Group 2: Chemical Industry - Juhua Co., Ltd. - Juhua Co., Ltd. is expected to see significant growth in Q1 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 760 to 840 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 145% to 171% [5][6][36] - The company benefits from a strong position in the refrigerant market, with a production quota of 34% for third-generation refrigerants [6][36] - The refrigerant segment has shown a substantial increase in both volume and price, with revenues reaching 2.618 billion yuan, up 64.63% year-on-year [6][36] Group 3: Aluminum Industry - China Aluminum Corporation - China Aluminum Corporation is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.4 to 3.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53% to 63% [8][10] - The company is enhancing its resource strategy and has a significant aluminum ore reserve of approximately 2.7 billion tons [8][10] - Expansion projects are underway, with a new 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum capacity expected to come online in December 2024 [10]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View - In the context of tariff frictions, the overall driving force is weak, and cotton prices are expected to remain weak [30]. Summary by Directory International Cotton Market Analysis - In the 2024/25 season, the global supply is generally loose. The global cotton production is estimated to increase to 26.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74 million tons, mainly due to a significant increase in China's cotton production. The global cotton consumption is 25.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons, mainly due to the obvious increase in cotton consumption in countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Thailand. The global cotton ending inventory in the 2024/25 season is expected to decrease by 20,000 tons from the previous month's estimate, and increase by 910,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - The supply of US cotton is loose, but there is an expectation of a decline in the future planting area. The 2024/25 US cotton production is expected to be 3.14 million tons, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 510,000 tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In March 2025, the estimated cotton planting area in the US is 9.867 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [5]. Domestic Cotton Fundamentals - China's cotton production in 2024 exceeded expectations. The single - yield reached a record high of 2,171.6 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 7.8%. The total national production is estimated to be 6.84 million tons. It is expected that the cotton planting area in China will increase by 0.8% in 2025, but the single - yield may decline, and the production will also decrease year - on - year [8]. - As of the end of February 2025, China's national cotton commercial inventory was 5.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 140,000 tons, and the industrial inventory was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. Both inventories are at the highest level in the same period of history [10][11]. - As of the end of February 2025, the yarn inventory of domestic textile enterprises was 22.32 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous month and 3.6 days year - on - year. The grey fabric inventory was 29.43 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month and an increase of 2.2 days year - on - year [15]. China's Textile and Apparel Demand - According to customs data, from January to February 2025, China's textile and apparel exports decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. The US has imposed high - tariff policies on China, and China has also counter - imposed tariffs. China's textile exports are expected to decline by about 10% [19]. - From January to February 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles in China increased by 3.3% year - on - year, but the growth rate is still low [22]. Cost and Profit - The current domestic spot yarn - cotton price difference is around 6,200 yuan/ton, at a historically low level. In 2024, the yarn - cotton price difference was in the range of 6,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and downstream textile enterprises suffered large losses for a long time [26]. - The purchase price of seed cotton this season is 6.3 yuan/kg, and the corresponding cotton cost is around 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton, and the futures market has been at a discount [28]. Trading Logic - From the perspective of the USDA balance sheet, the world is in a stocking cycle in the 2024/25 season, which is a medium - and long - term negative factor for cotton prices. Globally, Brazilian cotton has the lowest cost, about 60 cents. In a period of oversupply, global cotton prices may approach the Brazilian planting cost. However, the expected 12% decrease in the US planting area in the new season will also affect cotton prices [29]. - Domestically, the current supply far exceeds expectations, industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, downstream yarn and grey fabric inventories are also high, and downstream profits are low. In terms of demand, the US high - tariff policy on China and China's counter - measures will have a long - term impact on cotton demand, and China's textile exports are expected to decline further [29].