Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][29] Core Insights - The overall consumption data for November 2025 shows stable performance, with service consumption remaining robust, providing growth momentum for the industry. There is a focus on expanding domestic demand [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 4.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, but a month-on-month decline. Restaurant revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1][3] - The service sector PMI for October was 49.5%, indicating a contraction below the critical point of 50% [1] Summary by Sections Domestic Macro Data - Retail sales in November 2025 totaled 4.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, but a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points, falling short of the Wind consensus expectation of 2.93%. The decline was influenced by the early "Double Eleven" sales activities and a reduction in national subsidies. Retail sales of goods grew by 1.0% year-on-year, while restaurant revenue increased by 3.2% [1][3] - Service consumption remains strong, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% in service retail sales from January to November, marking a continuous recovery over three months. This growth rate is 1.3 percentage points higher than that of goods retail sales during the same period [1][3] - The unemployment rate in November remained stable at 5.1%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points. The average weekly working hours for employed persons was 48.6 hours [1][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in tourism and travel consumption, such as Lingnan Holdings and Tongcheng Travel. Other recommended companies include Tianmuhu, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, China Youth Travel, Jinjiang Hotels, Junting Hotels, and ShouLai Hotels, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [3] - Local dining representatives like Tongqinglou and quality targets in the performance industry such as Fengshang Culture and Dafeng Industrial are also highlighted. Key players in the conference and exhibition sector include Miao Exhibition and Lansheng Co. [3]

300增强ETF（561300）不仅紧跟沪深300指数，还叠加了量化策略，试图在优质beta的基础上追求超额 收益。截至2025年三季度末，300增强ETF过去三年相对沪深300超额达10.92%。 招商证券指出，2026年作为中国"十五五"规划开局之年，政策定调积极，预计财政支出将保持扩张，基 建与重大项目集中落地有望带动投资（特别是基建）增速回升，与潜在的房地产企稳政策形成合力，共 同推动内需回暖。行业层面，关注顺周期与产能出清、科技创新与优势制造、扩内需三条线索，重点关 注有色金属、基础化工、食品饮料、电力设备等行业。顺周期板块收入和净利润增速触底回升，利润率 底部修复，资本开支增速处于拐点附近，在建工程持续下滑至历史低位，与历史上几轮顺周期行情高度 契合。科技创新领域，国产算力行业在外部封锁与内需爆发双引擎驱动下处于历史性机遇期，AI、服 务器、数据中心等环节加速迭代。消费服务行业有望在政策支持、经济复苏与结构转型共同作用下迎来 量价齐升的复苏周期，重点关注医疗护理、养老托育、文化旅游等服务消费领域。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

优惠券超过18万张，通过消费券直接带动的消费额已达数百万元，惠及职工数十几万人次。"让职工敢 消费、能消费、乐消费，是我们设计每一张券的出发点。"工会工作人员如此概括。 "一张券，撬动三重浪。"崂山区的职工们发现，工会的福利正以意想不到的方式渗透生活：电影票价， 工会补贴后最低只需5元;一杯市场价30元左右的精品咖啡，用券后仅需6元，比流行已久的"9块9"更具 冲击力;超市"满50减16"、崂山年卡直接半价、地铁通勤券全免……这些并非节日特例，而是贯穿全年 的"福利日历"。 当崂山工会扮演着"资源整合师"的角色，将商家让利、工会补贴、职工消费三者精密耦合。每月一期、 应季而变的主题策划，覆盖文旅、零售、出行、餐饮等多个领域。与全区五家影院、三大商超、十二家 咖啡店、青岛地铁APP等建立的稳定合作网络，确保了福利的广泛性与持续性。据统计，仅2025年发放 从观影到喝咖啡，从逛超市到游崂山，一张张看似简单的消费券，实则是工会用市场化思维激活内需 的"微型引擎"。它精准触达职工生活场景，将潜在消费意愿转化为真实交易，更在无形中培育了新的消 费习惯与生活方式，一张张消费券，从设计之初，就承载着激发潜在消费、引导消费流 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize investment and expand domestic demand as a priority for economic work in the coming year [1][5] - The government plans to increase the scale of central budget investment and optimize the management of local government special bonds to stimulate private investment [1][6] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" will see the acceleration of strategic emerging industries and future industry projects, supported by sufficient financial tools and special bond reserves [1][6] Group 2 - In November, the social financing scale increased by 24,885 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, with a notable contribution from non-standard financing and corporate bond financing [2][3] - The contribution of credit to social financing decreased, with new RMB loans of 4,053 billion yuan in November, reflecting insufficient effective demand in the macro economy [2][3] - Non-standard financing increased significantly, with corporate bond financing reaching 4,169 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards direct financing [3][4] Group 3 - The industrial added value maintained steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in November, while fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [5][6] - The demand for equipment updates remains strong due to trends in digitalization and automation, with policies supporting large-scale equipment updates expected to be implemented in 2024 [6] - The central economic work conference highlights the importance of combining "investment in people" and "investment in materials" to unlock significant potential [1][6] Group 4 - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, although it showed a decline compared to October [7] - The government plans to implement actions to boost consumption and develop a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income [7] - The overall resilience of foreign trade has supported stable economic growth, but challenges remain for the upcoming year, necessitating stable exchange rates to promote exports [7]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize investment and expand domestic demand as a priority for the upcoming year, with a focus on combining "investment in people" and "investment in things" to unlock significant potential [1][6] - The government plans to increase the scale of central budget investments and optimize the management of local government special bonds to stimulate private investment [1][6] - The upcoming year marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which will accelerate the launch of various strategic emerging industries and future industry projects, supported by ample financial tools and special bond reserves [1][6] Group 2 - In November, the social financing scale increased by 24,885 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, with a notable contribution from non-standard financing and corporate bond financing rather than traditional credit demand [2][3] - The contribution of credit to social financing decreased in November, with new RMB loans amounting to 4,053 billion yuan, reflecting insufficient effective demand in the macroeconomic environment [2][3] - Corporate loans in November totaled 6,100 billion yuan, primarily driven by an increase in bill financing, indicating a shift in financing sources as companies focus on settling accounts near year-end [3] Group 3 - Non-standard financing saw a year-on-year increase of 1,328 billion yuan in November, while corporate bond financing rose by 1,788 billion yuan, highlighting the importance of off-balance-sheet financing in the current economic context [3][4] - The M1 growth rate declined due to a high base effect, while M2 growth also decreased, influenced by the reduction in credit and its impact on derived deposits [4] - The central economic work conference has shifted its focus from social financing and M2 to economic growth and price recovery, indicating a change in policy priorities [4] Group 4 - In November, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 6.0% from January to November, reflecting a strong performance in the supply side of the economy [5][6] - Fixed asset investment from January to November showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with significant growth in equipment purchases indicating a trend towards modernization and digitalization in industrial production [5][6] - The government is expected to implement policies supporting large-scale equipment updates in 2024, with additional funding of approximately 150 billion yuan allocated for this purpose [6] Group 5 - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, although this represented a decline compared to October [7] - The central economic work conference has proposed actions to boost consumption, including plans to increase urban and rural residents' income and optimize the supply of quality goods and services [7] - The resilience of foreign trade has contributed to stable economic growth, but challenges remain for the upcoming year, necessitating measures to maintain exchange rate stability and support exports [7]

Production - In November 2025, the industrial added value of large-scale industries grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The mining industry recorded a growth of 6.3%, outperforming manufacturing at 4.6% and water, electricity, and gas at 4.3%, indicating ongoing reliance on traditional resource sectors[12] - The sales rate of industrial products fell to 96.5%, reflecting a misalignment between production expansion and end demand[13] Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.6 percentage points from October, the lowest monthly growth since December 2022[2] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption[16] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7%, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales, highlighting the impact of digital consumption trends[17] Investment - From January to November 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6%, with a widening decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period[5] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative decline of 15.9%, with housing sales area and sales amount both decreasing by 7.8% and 11.1% respectively, continuing a negative growth trend for 43 months[25] - Manufacturing investment fell by 0.8 percentage points to 1.9%, with a monthly decline of 4.5%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector[24] Economic Outlook - The economic data for November indicates that insufficient effective demand remains the primary contradiction in the economy, opening up further space for policy support[27] - Future policies to boost domestic demand are expected to focus on enhancing employment, increasing residents' income, and improving social security[28]

研究员：万亮 邮箱：xnqh_wl@swfutures.com 11 月经济数据继续走弱，内需不足是主要制约 ——11 月宏观数据分析 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019298 对此，我们认为，需要理性客观的看待当前宏观经济，房地产市场的转型 调整、见底回升尚需时间，国内经济的复苏不能一蹴而就。当前外部不稳定不 确定因素较多，国内有效需求不足，经济运行面临不少挑战。这要求实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给，推动经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长。 未来，"扩内需、反内卷"仍将是长期的、重要的政策抓手。当前金融市 场处在"弱现实、强预期"状态，市场情绪持续好转。尽管节奏上充满波折， 2025 年宏观经济和资产价格，均有望延续向上修复的整体趋势，在此过程中需 保持耐心。 一、制造业 PMI 环比回升，但仍低于荣枯线 11 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分 点，景气水平有所改善。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.6 个百分点，低于临界点；中、小型企业 PMI 分别为 48.9%和 49.1% ...

在中国证券报专访中，风语筑董事长李晖分享了公司融入科技潮流的方法论，并谈到如何将具身智能机 器人、智能眼镜等最新科技产品融入线下文旅场景，用技术之力盘活线下空间。 近日，风语筑发布"非遗谷子青年艺术扶持计划"，联合艺术院校，用AI技术挖掘非物质文化遗产的新价 值。今年以来，公司与字节跳动旗下AI创作平台合作，成立了"具身智能研究院"，将具身智能机器人落 地线下场馆，"拥抱AI"成为公司今年业务发展的关键词。 加强AI技术的运用 在文博场馆，风语筑与智能眼镜公司Rokid合作，将智能眼镜用于博物馆展品展示与导览。李晖表 示，"智能眼镜让观众在参观博物馆时，可以获得更多增量信息和更沉浸式的体验。" 风语筑近期表示，将与Rokid推出联合研发的AI智能导览系统。观众佩戴眼镜参观展品时，高清摄像头 可即时完成视觉识别，自动叠加动态数字内容；设备还支持多语言语音交互，观众通过轻声提问，可以 获取文物背后的历史故事、工艺细节。眼镜还能根据观众兴趣偏好规划个性化参观需求，构建展项间的 隐性知识网络。 智能终端赋能文旅 风语筑正在将具身智能机器人、智能眼镜等借助AI技术的新产品融入文旅场景。 今年3月，风语筑成立"具身智能研 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies in supporting major national strategies, expanding domestic demand, stabilizing growth, and improving people's livelihoods in 2025 and the continuation of these policies into 2026 [1][2][3]. Group 2 - In 2025, significant fiscal measures included the allocation of 800 billion yuan in special bonds to support major projects, which involved 1,459 projects in key areas such as ecological restoration and transportation infrastructure [2]. - The consumer goods replacement policy led to a 26.5% increase in sales revenue for home appliances and a 20.3% increase for communication retail in the first eleven months of 2025 [2]. - The fiscal spending since the 14th Five-Year Plan has directed over 70% towards improving people's livelihoods, indicating a strong focus on social welfare [2]. Group 3 - The fiscal policy has played a crucial role in boosting consumption and expanding investment, contributing to the achievement of economic and social development goals [3]. - Investment in human capital through subsidies for childcare and education is seen as essential for high-quality development and improving residents' living standards [3]. Group 4 - The government plans to optimize expenditure structures and enhance financial support for major national strategies, focusing on investments in human capital and expanding domestic demand [4]. - The Ministry of Finance has outlined strategies to promote income growth and optimize income distribution to stimulate consumption [4]. Group 5 - Experts suggest that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as the consumer goods replacement policy, may need optimization to avoid diminishing returns [5]. - There is potential for expanding the subsidy range to include new consumption-related products, such as AI products and electric vehicle charging stations [6]. Group 6 - The government aims to leverage various types of government bond funds to support major projects and enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies [7]. - Optimizing project reserves and expanding the fiscal "toolbox" are seen as ways to improve the effectiveness of investment policies [8].

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.15 海外联储降息落地，中国政策定调积极 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 政策与地缘研究 12 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 资产概览：全球风偏降温，贵金属领涨 2025.12.15 成交活跃度升高，创业板指估值领涨 2025.12.13 资产概览：商品/权益上涨，中债熊陡 2025.12.09 AI 产业延续高景气，服务消费同比偏强 2025.12.09 融资资金延续流入，ETF 平稳回流 2025.12.08 国外方面，美联储 12 月降息落地并开启扩表。国内方面，中央经济工作会议召开， 强调扩内需继续优先，推动投资止跌回稳，科技突破是产业重心。 投资要点： 策 略 观 察 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月美联储议息会议如期宣布降息 25BP，将联邦基金利率 目标区间下调至 3.5%-3.75%，符合市场普遍预期，但内部分歧显 著加大。12 位 FOMC 投票委员中 3 人反对，为 2019 年以来首次出 现三名委员反对利率决议，其中 1 人主张降息 50BP，2 人主张维持 利率不变，点阵图中 2026 年降息预测 ...