Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the implementation of a comprehensive consumption promotion plan during the Spring Festival, focusing on enhancing service supply and optimizing consumer experiences across various sectors [1][2][3] - The plan includes measures to increase transportation capacity in civil aviation and railways, promote special offers for tickets, and enhance the quality of services provided to consumers [1] - The initiative aims to address diverse consumer needs by creating special market areas for New Year goods and extending the operating hours of cultural venues during the holiday [1][2] Group 2 - The plan emphasizes the integration of digital, green, and smart consumption, as well as the promotion of inbound tourism, highlighting the importance of cultural traditions and family reunions in driving consumption growth [2][3] - It encourages online booking and offline experiences to balance the development of online and offline markets, while also facilitating payment options for international tourists [2] - The overall strategy aims to stabilize short-term consumption while laying the groundwork for a recovery in consumer spending by 2026, leveraging the long holiday period to enhance domestic demand and consumer confidence [3]

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 摘要 1月下旬以来，地方"两会"进入密集召开期。各地2026年GDP增速设定情况如何，各地2026年政府工作报 告定量与定性分析呈现何种特征？本文分析，可供参考。 (一)地方"两会"召开情况？二十省市相继召开"两会"，GDP增速目标加权平均5.1% 截至1月底，地方"两会"已进入密集召开期，北京、山东、河南、广东等二十地区已相继进入"两会"议 程。 根据各地2025年GDP加权，二十省市披露2026年GDP目标增速，加权平均值为5.1%，较2025年GDP 目标增速可比口径的5.3%下降0.2个百分点。海南、河北、北京等9地区2026年GDP目标增速（或目标区 间下限）与2025年持平。 整体目标保持"5%"中枢，设定更为务实积极。 二十个地区中，北京、河北、山东等8个地区将2026年 GDP目标增速均设定为5%左右及以上；浙江、广东、江西GDP目标增速围绕5%设定0.5个百分点的上下 区间。海南与新疆GDP目标增速居于前列，其中，海南GDP目标增速设定为6%左右，新疆GDP目标增速 设定为5.5%-6%。 经济大省勇挑大梁，表述中暗含"争取更好结果"的决心。 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 02 年 月 日 宏观点评 政策半月观—力争"开门红"，还有哪些政策可期？ 我们定期对每半月重大政策进行跟踪：1）中央、部委重要会议与政策； 2）地方政策；3）行业与产业政策。本期为近半月（1.19-2.1）综述。 核心结论：总体看，近半月政策推动 2026 年"开门红"多聚焦扩内需， 具体有 6 大焦点：一是 1.28-31 英国首相访华，期间中英领导人举行会 谈，并达成一系列积极成果（对英单方面免签、降低威士忌酒进口关税 率等）；二是多举措支持服务消费，包括深化自然资源要素保障支持养 老服务业 18 条，《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》出炉（将交通、 家政、网络视听、旅居、汽车后市场、入境消费等划为重点领域），向中 度以上失能老年人发放养老服务消费补贴项目，养老、托育、家政等社 区家庭服务业税费优惠政策延期等；三是 1.29 文旅部启动"2026 年全 国春节文化和旅游消费月"，从 1 月底持续至 3 月初，期间计划举办约 3 万场次文旅消费活动、发放超 3.6 亿元消费券等补贴，并推出门票减 免、跨区域优惠等普惠举措；四是 1.2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for Moutai during the Spring Festival exceeded expectations, leading to a rapid recovery in wholesale prices. The price of Moutai increased from 1610 RMB to 1710 RMB within two days, indicating a strong upward trend [3] - The industry is currently at a low valuation, with pessimistic expectations fully priced in. A weak recovery in demand is anticipated as policy pressures ease, and the industry is expected to undergo a clearer phase of performance improvement [2] - The report highlights that the white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu being recommended for their stable pricing and attractive dividend yields [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry increased by 1.56% in the week of January 26-30, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 0.44%. The white liquor sector led the gains with a 3.86% increase [3][8] - The report notes a significant divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with snacks and health products experiencing declines of 6.07% and 5.59%, respectively [3] Moutai's Market Dynamics - Moutai's management is pushing for market-oriented reforms, reducing the supply of non-standard products and eliminating bundled sales, which has alleviated pressure on distributors and reduced channel selling pressure [3] - The demand side is benefiting from concentrated gift-giving during the Spring Festival, alongside the expansion of the i Moutai channel, which allows consumers to purchase at fair prices, leading to sustained incremental demand [3] Fund Allocation Trends - The allocation of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector has decreased slightly to 4.1%, with a notable reduction in white liquor holdings. However, there is a marginal increase in allocations towards consumer goods, indicating a search for more certain and better-valued targets within the consumption sector [3]

为深入贯彻落实国家"促消费、扩内需"的决策部署，进一步激发市场活力，近日，中国银联联合多家商 业银行、主流平台及海量商户，正式启动"锦绣团圆好礼，惠聚四海一家"年度大型惠民活动。即日起至 2026年3月底，活动将紧密围绕岁末年初消费旺季，通过覆盖线上线下、联接境内外的全景式优惠矩 阵，推动消费扩容提质，让政策暖意与市场红利精准触达广大消费者。 一件普惠民生消费的"关键小事"，将"国之大者"的宏大叙事以细密"针脚"缝合进群众美好幸福生活。作 为国家重要金融基础设施，中国银联响应国策、聚焦民需，以开放包容的新"四方模式"与全球网络优 势，高效联接供需两端，凝聚促消费"同盟军"合力，向重点消费领域引入金融活水，持续为畅通国民经 济循环、服务新发展格局提供坚实支撑。 场景贯通 传统与新兴消费共振 此次惠民活动深入全国36个省市，涵盖购物、餐饮、出行、文旅、冰雪等多元场景，兼顾传统高频消 费，以及悦己经济、文旅经济、银发经济、绿色消费等新业态新消费增长点。 在传统零售与国潮换新方面，携手王府井、百联、银泰百货等全国性百货，安踏、斐乐、太平鸟等国货 品牌，提供丰富满减优惠。餐饮方面，既涵盖爷爷不泡茶、德克士等休闲品牌，也 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent policies are focused on expanding domestic demand to achieve a "good start" for 2026, with six major focal points identified [1][2] Group 1: Major Policies - The UK Prime Minister's visit to China resulted in several positive outcomes, including visa exemptions and reduced import tariffs on whiskey [2][11][12] - Multiple measures to support service consumption were introduced, including a plan to issue subsidies for elderly care services and tax incentives for community service industries [2][21][26] - The Ministry of Finance announced a package of policies to promote domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment and interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises [2][27] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) revised regulations to attract "patient capital" by expanding the types of strategic investors and setting minimum shareholding requirements [2][19] - The local governments are entering the two sessions period, with an average GDP target of 5% across 22 regions, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous year [2][28] Group 2: Local Policies - Local two sessions are concluding, with 22 regions announcing their GDP targets, showing an average target of 5%, down 0.3 percentage points from last year [2][28] - Economic provinces have set varied GDP targets, with the highest being 5.5% for Hubei and the lowest being 4.5% for Guangdong [2][29] Group 3: Industry Policies - Various regions are optimizing housing fund and housing ticket management to stimulate housing demand, with initiatives like electronic housing tickets and increased loan limits [2][30][31] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to promote energy-saving and carbon reduction in key industries by 2027 [2][30]

正如2026年山东省政府工作报告所明确部署的，"奋力推进全方位扩大内需"置于全年工作首位，正是紧 扣发展之"纲"的战略抉择。报告同时提出"全力释放消费潜能"等具体举措，为应对外部环境不确定性、 推动经济持续回升向好提出了清晰路径。 而这一战略部署，是基于对2025年成功实践的深化与延续。从实施提振消费"五大工程"，到出台以旧换 新实施方案细则，从"山东交旅1号工程"撬动"票根经济"，到各地特色消费季激活市场潜力，山东以前 所未有的力度与精度，为消费市场注入动能。 立足"十五五"开局之年，如何进一步释放内需潜力、拓展增长空间？成为两会期间代表委员们讨论的热 点话题。 筑牢内需根基：从"有钱有闲"到"敢消费愿消费" 去年，在一系列政策举措的推动下，山东省社会消费品零售总额突破4.2万亿元，规模稳居全国第3位。 这一亮眼数据，不仅直观表明山东消费市场有着巨大韧性与潜力，更充分验证了将扩内需、促消费作为 工作"置顶项"的战略前瞻性与实践有效性。 消费，作为连通经济发展与民生福祉的纽带，既是拉动经济增长的主引擎，也在扩大内需中居于重要地 位。然而，引擎的持续运转与内需的深度释放，其根本前提在于切实增强老百姓"能消费、敢 ...

国内消费市场稳步复苏，居民消费信心逐步修复，相关政策持续落地为消费行业注入动能。 声明：本内容由AI生成，数据资料来自于交易所及第三方公开信息，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。 市场炒作新华百货的核心逻辑围绕股权转让概念展开，叠加扩内需政策持续发力下商贸零售板块迎来的 复苏预期，吸引资金关注。 消息面上，财政部发布通知，将个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施期限延长至2026年底，政策到期后，将 根据实施效果视情研究延长政策期限等。此外，将信用卡账单分期业务纳入支持范围，年贴息比例为1 个百分点。并取消单笔消费贴息金额上限500元的要求，取消每名借款人在一家经办机构可享受5万元以 下累计消费贴息上限1000元的要求。国家发改委将研究制定出台2026年—2030年扩大内需战略实施方 案，以新供给创造新需求，提供强有力的创新举措和要素保障。同时，积极利用改革创新办法，着力打 通供需良性循环的一些卡点堵点，加快推进全国统一大市场建设，进一步畅通国内大循环。 来源：市场资讯 交易所数据显示，截至9时38分，新华百货涨幅为10.00%，最新价23.32元，总市值52.62亿元，封板资 金1.75亿元，成交额2.91亿元，换手率5.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the transportation sector [5] Core Insights - The dry bulk freight rates have unexpectedly rebounded during the off-season, with significant increases noted in large vessels. The VLCC market saw a rise in freight rates due to geopolitical risks and strong demand for commodities like iron ore and grain [1][2] - The report highlights key companies to watch, including China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, Haitong Development, COSCO Shipping International, and CIMC Enric [1][2] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The VLCC freight rates surged again, while dry bulk freight rates showed an unexpected off-season recovery, particularly for larger vessels. The BDI index reached 2148 points on January 30, with the BCI at 3507 points [1][2] - The transportation sector index fell by 1.40%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.96 percentage points. The top-performing segments were shipping, ports, and highways, with gains of 2.19%, 1.42%, and 0.10% respectively [21][22] Travel - Domestic flight ticket bookings for the upcoming Spring Festival exceeded 7.16 million, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year. The report remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for the aviation sector due to recovering demand and supportive policies [3][13] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing a resurgence in freight rates, with the index for oil transport from the Persian Gulf to China rising to WS137.2 points, an increase of 42.6 points from the previous day. The dry bulk freight rates are also on the rise, supported by strong demand for iron ore and grain [14][15] - Key companies in the shipping sector include China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping International, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [17] Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: the overseas expansion driven by the rapid growth of e-commerce and the internal competition dynamics that favor leading companies. Recommended stocks include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shunfeng Express [19][20]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 交通运输 干散货运价淡季回升，继续重视油运 周观点：VLCC 运价周五再度冲高；干散货运价淡季超预期回升，大船更为明 显。VLCC 市场，本周 VLCC 市场中东航线 2 月上旬货盘基本收尾，租家出货 节奏放缓，运价在周四之前高位回落；随着运价下跌，船东对进一步下跌表现 出较强抵抗意愿，潜在地缘政治风险再度升温，1 月 30 日，波斯湾至中国 27 万吨原油运价指数升至 WS137.2 点，较 1 月 29 日上涨 42.6 点。受矿石、粮 食等品种发货需求较好支撑，本周干散货运价持续回升，BDI 于 1 月 30 日收 于 2148 点，大船涨势更为明显，BCI 于 1 月 30 日收于 3507 点。重点关注招 商轮船、中远海能、海通发展、中远海运国际和中集安瑞科等。 行情回顾：本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30）交通运输板块行业指数下跌 1.40%， 跑输上证指数 0.96 个百分点（上证指数下跌 0.44%）。从申万交通运输行业 三级分类看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航运、港口、高速公路，涨幅分别为 2.19 ...