Export and Import Trends - In May 2025, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, down from 8.1% in April, while import growth was -3.4%, compared to -0.2% previously[4] - Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% in May, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels[7] - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025[7] Country-Specific Insights - Exports to the US dropped significantly by 34.5%, while exports to ASEAN and Latin America also slowed to 14.8% and 2.3%, respectively[12] - Exports to other regions increased to 11.8%, up from 10.4% previously, indicating resilience in non-US trade[12] Product-Specific Performance - Agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw significant declines, while machinery and raw materials remained stable[17] - Integrated circuits and ship exports continued to perform strongly, with automotive exports showing signs of recovery[17] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Optimists believe that the decline in May's export growth is temporary, expecting a rebound in June due to reduced tariffs, while pessimists fear a significant drop in orders due to preemptive exports in April[24] - The report suggests that while export momentum may normalize, a drastic decline is unlikely, with potential further decreases in year-on-year comparisons in Q4 due to high base effects[21] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include judicial friction over tariffs that could lead to further reductions in US tariffs[26]

Core Viewpoint - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting from emerging markets to the U.S. as May exports show a decline due to the retreat of "export grabbing" and a high base effect from the previous year [3][53]. Export Analysis - May exports fell by 3.3 percentage points to 4.8% year-on-year, influenced by a high base and a decline in exports to ASEAN (-6.0 percentage points to 15.1%) and India (-9.2 percentage points to 12.7%) [3][10]. - The export growth of midstream manufacturing remains high but shows a marginal decline, with energy resource exports dropping significantly, from 7.4% and 1.3% in April to 6.3% and -3.5% in May, respectively [3][17]. - There are emerging signs of "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with May exports to the U.S. declining by 13.5 percentage points to -34.4%, but certain categories like toys (+5.4 percentage points to -1.1%) and clothing (+3.7 percentage points to 2.5%) show recovery [4][19]. Future Outlook - In June, the focus is expected to shift from emerging markets to the U.S. for "export grabbing," with overall export growth likely to receive some support [4][29]. - Three indicators suggest continued "export grabbing": positive year-on-year growth in processing trade imports in May, a surge in container bookings from the U.S. in late May, and a seasonal price increase in Yiwu small commodities [4][29]. Import Analysis - May imports fell by 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in bulk commodity imports, with copper (-18.6% to 5.8%), crude oil (-8.2% to -0.8%), and iron ore (-5.1% to -3.8%) all showing decreases [6][56]. - The import growth of electromechanical products saw a slight increase (+0.1 percentage points to 5.5%), while bulk commodity imports declined significantly [6][44]. Sector-Specific Trends - In consumer goods, the export growth of consumer electronics increased (+1.5 percentage points to 3.8%), while light industrial products and real estate chain goods saw declines [5][55]. - Capital goods and intermediate goods exports showed divergence, with ship exports rising (+7.6 percentage points to 43.7%) while general machinery exports fell (-11.4 percentage points to 5.6%) [5][35]. - Exports to major economies showed a general decline, with exports to the U.S. down (-13.5 percentage points to -34.4%) while exports to the UK increased (+13.1 percentage points to 15.8%) [5][40].

期货热点追踪 运价翻倍、订单激增，新一轮"抢出口"能否支撑运价持续上涨？ 相关链接 ...

出口结构上来看： 国别结构上，受抢出口退温影响， 2025 年 5 月美国与东盟、拉美等转口地出口增速均有明显回落，分 别录得 -34.5% 、 14.8% 和 2.3% ，而对其他地区的出口增速则进一步提升至 11.8% （前值 10.4% ）。 商品结构上， 农产品和劳密显著回落，机电和原材料表现相对稳定。机电中集成电路、船舶出口表现持续 较强，汽车升温。 5 月出口数据回落背后的两种极端解读： 报告导读： 5 月出口增速回落，既非前期抢运的透支所致，也不是短暂的波动，而是关税 预期见顶回落后，关税对出口冲击的效果显现。后续出口中枢回落，但仍有韧性。 整体来看： 同比增速上， 2025 年 5 月，美元计价的中国出口增速 4.8% （前值 8.1% ），进口增速 -3.4% （前 值 -0.2% ）。 从环比动能来看， 5 月出口较 4 月环比增速 -0.2% ，低于季节性水平；进口环比增速 -3.0% ，低于季 节性水平。 商品贸易顺差小幅提升。 乐观者认为在超高关税冲击下 4 月出口增速仍有较强表现（ 8.1% ），那么 5 月 14 日关税降温后出口 理应反弹，则 5 月的出口增速回落应解释为出口商 ...

Trade Data Summary - In May 2025, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in April, while imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 0.2% in April[2] - The trade surplus reached $103.22 billion, an increase of $21.85 billion compared to the same month last year[2] - Export growth is expected to remain resilient in June to Q3 due to tariff reductions and pre-Christmas orders, but the overall external demand is still slowing down[2] Export and Import Trends - May exports totaled $316.10 billion, a historical high for the month, but the month-on-month growth was only 0.2%, below the four-year average of 3.48%[2] - The overall external demand is below the boom-bust line, with JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI at 49.6% in May, indicating a contraction[2] - Imports in May were $212.88 billion, the lowest for the same month since 2021, with a month-on-month decline of 3%[3] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU increased by 12.02%, up 3.75 percentage points from April, while exports to the US fell significantly by 34.52%[2] - The ASEAN region saw a decline in exports by 14.84%, reflecting the impact of "export grabbing" on demand[2] Product-Specific Insights - Key products like integrated circuits and automobiles showed significant recovery, while labor-intensive products like toys and footwear remained at low levels due to tariff impacts[2] - The import of crude oil saw a decline of 22.1% year-on-year, while imports of grains and soybeans increased significantly, reflecting a shift in demand[3]

Core Viewpoint - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting from emerging markets to the U.S. [3][51] - In May, exports fell year-on-year due to a decline in "export grabbing" and a high base effect from the previous year, with a decrease of 3.3 percentage points to 4.8% [3][51] - Exports to ASEAN and India showed significant declines, indicating a retreat from previous "export grabbing" trends in emerging economies [3][51] Export Analysis - The old clues of "export grabbing" through emerging countries are declining, with midstream manufacturing exports showing a marginal decrease and energy resource exports declining significantly [3][15] - In May, exports of midstream manufacturing and energy resources fell from 7.4% and 1.3% in April to 6.3% and -3.5%, respectively [3][15] - There are emerging signs of "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with specific products like toys and clothing showing recovery in export growth [4][19] Future Outlook - In June, the focus is expected to shift from "export grabbing" in emerging economies to the U.S., with overall export growth likely to receive some support [4][27] - Three indicators suggest continued "export grabbing": positive year-on-year growth in processing trade imports, a surge in container bookings from the U.S., and rising prices for small commodities from Yiwu [4][27] Import Analysis - In May, import growth fell by 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in bulk commodity imports [6][54] - Specific imports such as copper, crude oil, and iron ore showed significant declines, reflecting a notable drop in domestic investment demand, particularly in traditional infrastructure [6][54] - Mechanical and electrical product imports saw a slight recovery, increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 5.5% [6][54] Regional Export Trends - Exports to major economies showed a general decline, with exports to the U.S. dropping significantly [5][38] - Exports to non-U.S. developed countries, such as the UK and the EU, saw some recovery, while exports to emerging economies also declined [5][38] - Notably, exports to Africa increased, contrasting with declines in exports to Latin America and ASEAN [5][38]

Export Data Analysis - In May, exports (in USD) grew by 4.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 6.2% and previous value of 8.1%[7] - The decline in exports is attributed to the retreat of the "export grabbing" phenomenon and a high base effect from the previous year[8] - Exports to ASEAN and India fell significantly, with declines of 6.0 percentage points to 15.1% and 9.2 percentage points to 12.7%, respectively[2] - The export growth rate for midstream manufacturing products decreased from 7.4% in April to 6.3% in May, while energy resource exports dropped from 1.3% to -3.5%[15] Import Data Analysis - Imports (in USD) fell by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] - The decline in imports was primarily driven by a drop in bulk commodity imports, including copper (-18.6% to 5.8%), crude oil (-8.2% to -0.8%), and iron ore (-5.1% to -3.8%)[42] - Mechanical and electrical product imports saw a slight increase, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 5.5%[5] Future Outlook - The shift in "export grabbing" is expected to transition from emerging markets to the U.S., with June exports likely to receive some support[23] - Key indicators for June include positive processing trade import growth of 2.4% in May, a surge in container bookings from the U.S., and rising prices for Yiwu small commodities[23] - The necessity for further "export grabbing" is anticipated to decrease as the suspension period for equal tariffs on emerging countries approaches its end[23]

金十数据6月10日讯，中信证券研报称，结合集装箱运价、订单量等数据，预计在中美关税暂缓期内， 新一轮"抢出口"有望开启，对整体的出口表现形成支撑。从进出口份额视角来看，美国占我国出口份额 出现显著降幅，美墨之间的关税冲突同样影响到了我国出口商品经墨西哥的转口贸易，未来东盟和欧盟 或将继续作为我国出口韧性的主要来源。 中信证券：新一轮"抢出口"有望开启 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 5 月出口，高关税阴影犹存 据海关总署，2025年5月出口总值为3161亿美元，同比增长4.8%，低于市场预期的6.2%和4月的8.1%； 进口总值为 2129 亿美元，同比-3.4%，预期 0.31%，前值-0.2%。5 月以来，中美贸易关系缓和，第一轮谈判后 中美互相大幅降低关税，当前美国对华关税仍维持在 30%之上。如何看待 5 月份进出口数据？ 一是对美出口继续下降，暂未反映贸易缓和。5 月对美出口同比降 34.6%，拖累出口同比 5 个百分点。对美 出口进一步大幅下降，或仍在继续反映 4 月美国对中国征收 145%高额关税的影响。不过，5 月以来，中美贸易 关系逐渐缓和，5 月 12 日中美会谈结束后发布日内瓦联合声明，中美之间关税税率超预期大幅下降，关税下调 于 5 月 14 日正式生效。6 月 5 日晚间，中美最高领导人通话，同意双方团队继续落实好日内瓦共识，并约定尽 快举行新一轮会谈。 伴随中美关系缓和，中国对美出口的恢复有望体现在 6 月数据。5 月中旬暂停加征关税后，市场迅速 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the China-US tariff war eased, but there are still significant uncertainties. Trump's tariff policy is influenced by the "Great and Beautiful" Act. If it passes the Senate, the tariff policy may ease; otherwise, it may intensify [1][33]. - The suspension of the tariff war promoted panic exports, leading to a month-on-month increase in the manufacturing PMI in May. The improvement in demand was mainly supported by external demand, but enterprises were worried about future demand, as indicated by the continuous decline in the finished - product inventory index [1][34]. - Despite the easing of the tariff war, its negative impact has formed, squeezing enterprises' willingness to produce and invest. Enterprises prefer to maintain the original re - export trade rather than direct exports due to the expiration of the tariff suspension period in early July [2][34]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Tariff War Risk Temporarily Eased, but Uncertainty Remains 3.1.1 Tariff War News Since May - In the China - US high - level economic and trade talks from May 10 - 11, significant progress was made, including a substantial reduction in bilateral tariffs and the establishment of a bilateral consultation mechanism. However, there is a risk of tariff war escalation after the 90 - day suspension period ends on July 9 [7][8]. - There were legal disputes over Trump's tariff policy in May. On May 28, a federal court blocked Trump's tariff policy, but on May 29, the federal appeals court temporarily suspended the lower - court's ruling. On June 3, Trump increased steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% [8]. - There are internal differences in the US on tariff policy, but Trump adheres to a tough stance, making the future of the tariff war uncertain [9]. 3.1.2 Assessment of Trump's Future Tariff Policy - Trump's tariff policy is stubborn. His purposes include creating political legacies and expanding family assets, as well as generating fiscal revenue for tax cuts. The "Great and Beautiful" Act's passage in the Senate will affect the intensity of his tariff policy [10][11]. 3.2 Tariff War Suspension Promoted Panic Exports, and the Manufacturing PMI Rose Month - on - Month in May - In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded by 0.5 points to 49.5 but remained in the contraction range. The panic - export effect drove the recovery of most sub - indicators except price - related and finished - product inventory indicators [12]. - In terms of production, the PMI production index rose by 0.9 points to 50.7, higher than the rebound of the demand index and the seasonal average. Enterprises accelerated production during the 90 - day buffer period to ship goods [12][13]. - In terms of demand, the new order index rose by 0.6 points, and the new export order index rose by 2.8 points, indicating that external demand supported the improvement. However, the finished - product inventory index continued to decline by 0.8 points, reflecting enterprises' concerns about future demand [13]. 3.3 Enterprises Remain Cautious about Direct Trade with the US and Prefer Re - export Trade - In May, the weekly average throughput of monitored ports increased slightly month - on - month, and the import container data of the Port of Los Angeles showed a recovery but did not reach previous highs. Enterprises prefer re - export trade due to the cumulative effect of tariffs and the short suspension period [18]. - Different industries are affected differently by tariff policies. Strategic emerging industries are less affected, while traditional labor - intensive foreign - trade enterprises are more cautious. Forward - looking indicators show that the actual production and operation recovery of enterprises is slower than expected [24]. - In April, more than half of the 13 export - dependent industries saw profit improvements, but there was a deviation between price - volume changes and profit recovery. Profit improvement driven by cost reduction is not sustainable, so enterprises choose to reduce inventory [29]. 3.4 Summary - The China - US tariff war eased in May, but Trump's tariff policy remains uncertain, depending on the "Great and Beautiful" Act's passage in the Senate [1][33]. - The suspension of the tariff war promoted panic exports and a month - on - month increase in the manufacturing PMI in May. External demand supported the improvement in demand, but enterprises were worried about future demand [1][34]. - The negative impact of the tariff war has formed, squeezing enterprises' willingness to produce and invest. Enterprises prefer re - export trade due to the expiration of the tariff suspension period in early July [2][34].