Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data in China, highlighting the growth in consumer spending supported by policies like "trade-in for new" and the stabilization of the real estate market. It raises questions about sustaining this growth amid potential pressures from declining export growth and real estate price fluctuations. Group 1: Consumer Spending - In May, China's total retail sales reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with accelerated growth in consumer goods, particularly in home appliances and mobile phones, driven by the "trade-in for new" policy [1][3] - The "trade-in for new" policy has significantly supported consumption, contributing 1.3 percentage points to the retail sales growth in the first five months of the year [4] - The internal growth momentum for consumer spending has improved due to a decrease in unemployment rates and an increase in disposable income [4][5] Group 2: Economic Growth Forecast - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter is expected to be around 5.3%-5.4%, with retail sales growth also projected at approximately 5.4% [6] - However, there are concerns that internal consumption growth may face pressures from declining export growth and fluctuations in real estate prices in the second half of the year [6] Group 3: Export and Trade - China's total import and export value in the first five months was 17.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US declined [8] - The diversification of export destinations has effectively mitigated geopolitical risks, with ASEAN becoming China's largest export market [8][9] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with new housing sales showing significant variation across cities. First-tier cities have shown resilience, while second-hand housing prices continue to decline [12][15] - Policies aimed at increasing the supply of quality housing are seen as crucial for stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations for further relaxation of restrictive policies in major cities [15]

Economic Overview - The internal momentum of the US economy is weakening, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 0.4 percentage point decline in Q2 real GDP growth to 3.4% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 1.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in the services sector [2] - Private investment growth (excluding inventory) has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 0.4%, with significant contractions in real estate (-4.4%) and construction (-3.4%) [2] - The job market remains stable, with weekly initial jobless claims falling by 0.3 thousand to 245 thousand, aligning with seasonal levels [2] - The worsening situation in the Middle East is increasing inflationary pressures, as indicated by the Truflation daily inflation index rising by 8 basis points to 2.14% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal surplus of $18.5 billion, which is weaker than seasonal levels but stronger than historical averages [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained a wait-and-see stance during the June meeting, with the dot plot indicating that 7 out of 18 members do not expect rate cuts this year [3] Market Performance - Overseas markets showed muted performance last week, with the US dollar slightly rebounding and US Treasury yields fluctuating [4] - The US stock market was nearly flat, up 0.1%, with expectations that the most significant tariff impacts have passed, potentially leading to a renewed upward trend driven by corporate earnings resilience [4] - However, high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [4] - The strategy suggests maintaining a neutral position on US stocks with a balanced allocation [4] Chinese Economic Conditions - Domestic demand shows mixed signals, with strong automotive consumption but a slowdown in real estate transactions [6] - In June, average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 48,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - Real estate sales are declining, with new home transaction volumes in 30 major cities dropping by 8.6% year-on-year [7] - The land market is also cooling, with land supply and transaction volumes decreasing [7] External Demand and Trade - High-frequency data indicates a potential slowdown in China's export growth in June, with port cargo and container throughput growth rates declining [8] - Exports to the US may have seen some recovery, while exports to non-US regions are expected to decline from previous highs [8] Fiscal Performance - In May, fiscal revenue growth slowed, with public budget revenue increasing by only 0.1% year-on-year [9] - Tax revenue growth decreased to 0.6%, while non-tax revenue turned negative for the first time in 2024 [9] - Government spending growth was also slower, with a 2.6% increase year-on-year [9] Market Strategy - The bond market is showing strength, with short-term rates performing well due to a stable funding environment [10] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with uncertainties in corporate earnings and the need for further policy support for real estate and consumption [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of correction, with high valuations and unstable fundamentals [12]

Economic Growth and Consumption - The core viewpoint is that consumption will play a more significant role in driving economic growth this year, with retail sales expected to exceed a 5% growth rate, compared to 3.5% last year [2][5] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest growth rate since 2024 [4][5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [5] Foreign Trade Performance - The total value of goods trade in the first five months was 17.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, indicating better-than-expected foreign trade performance [10] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased significantly by 9.1% and 2.9%, respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% due to tariff increases [10] - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" has contributed to the positive foreign trade data, as companies rushed to export before anticipated tariff hikes [9][10] Service Consumption and Innovation - The shift in consumer demographics, particularly the rise of the post-95 and post-00 generations, is driving demand for emotional value and personalized consumption [6] - Service consumption can be categorized into survival, development, and experiential services, with a focus on promoting experiential services through innovative consumption scenarios [6] - Increasing public service investment and improving income distribution are essential for enhancing overall consumption [8] Policy Recommendations - To address weak price levels and stimulate consumption, targeted policy measures should include improving income distribution and increasing public consumption [8] - The government could consider expanding subsidies from durable goods to service consumption and providing direct consumption subsidies to low-income groups [5][8]

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations[2] - The service industry production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, indicating positive service sector performance[13] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in April, driven by the early "618" shopping festival[19] - Major categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% year-on-year[23] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May, below the market expectation of 4.0%[4] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment declined by 10.7%[4] Employment and Labor Market - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable employment situation[6] - The job market remains sensitive to external economic conditions, with policies aimed at supporting key demographics such as graduates and migrant workers[6] Market Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see a slight economic slowdown compared to the first quarter, with potential non-linear characteristics due to external uncertainties[1] - A dual bull market in stocks and bonds is anticipated in the second half of the year, supported by easing U.S.-China trade relations and risk mitigation funds[1]

Group 1: Export Trends - The surge in exports since Q4 2024 is linked to preemptive shipping behavior in response to tariff expectations, particularly noted in November 2024 when exports to the U.S. significantly exceeded seasonal norms[7] - By April 2025, the export growth rate was expected to stabilize around 4.7%, despite the impact of preemptive shipping and tariffs[19] - The overall export growth rate is projected to decline slightly in the second half of 2025, with a central tendency around 2.7% due to potential economic downturns in the U.S.[25] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - Tariff expectations have driven export behaviors, with significant preemptive shipping observed when tariffs were anticipated but not yet implemented[12] - The introduction of a 10% tariff on U.S. and transshipment goods could lead to a maximum decline of 2% in the export growth rate central tendency[25] - The central tendency for exports to the U.S. increased from 1.1% to 2.8%, while exports to transshipment areas rose from 8.5% to 12.7%[18] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential demand shrinkage in the U.S. and other countries due to tariffs, which could lead to an unexpected decline in export growth rates[26] - The report emphasizes that the actual contribution of genuine new orders is significant, with about half of the high export growth rate from November 2024 to April 2025 attributed to real demand rather than preemptive shipping[13]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In May, industrial production growth slightly decreased to 5.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened export activities influenced by tariff fluctuations[12] - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 2.7%, with real estate investment declining by 12%[21] - Retail sales growth increased to 6.4%, indicating enhanced consumer momentum, with service retail sales rising to 5.2%[26] Group 2: Real Estate Market - National real estate sales area growth rate dropped to -3.3%, with a two-year average growth rate narrowing to -12.4%[29] - New housing sales area growth rate continued to decline, while prices for new and second-hand homes showed a narrowing year-on-year decline[30] - Construction area growth rebounded significantly, but new construction area growth remained at -19.3%[30] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumption rebounded due to the combination of trade-in subsidies and increased holiday spending, with inbound tourism transactions increasing by 2.4 times in number and 1.3 times in value[13] - The growth rates for essential and discretionary consumer goods reached 8.2% and 8.5%, respectively, with two-year average growth rates also rising[26] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - External demand is expected to weaken as tariff exemptions expire, potentially impacting production and investment[13] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a steady employment situation despite economic fluctuations[33]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a slight decline in industrial production, a rebound in consumption, and a comprehensive drop in investment, with real estate continuing to decline [1][15]. Demand Side Analysis - External demand is significantly impacted by tariff fluctuations, leading to a continued decline in exports to the U.S., while transshipment trade and European recovery support exports in a mid-high range [1][2]. - Domestic investment is broadly declining, influenced by weak real estate and infrastructure investments, while consumption is showing signs of recovery due to trade-in programs and consumption festivals [1][2]. Production Side Analysis - Industrial production growth rate fell to 5.8% year-on-year in May, primarily due to tariff disruptions affecting export strength [3]. - The service production index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2% year-on-year, benefiting from the recovery in consumption [3]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 2.7% year-on-year, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [5][14]. - High-tech industry investments performed well, with information services and aerospace manufacturing seeing substantial year-on-year growth [9]. Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth rose to 6.4% in May, indicating enhanced consumption momentum, with significant contributions from home appliance and communication sectors benefiting from trade-in programs [10]. - Service consumption also showed recovery, with tourism-related growth accelerating and restaurant income increasing [10]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth rate fell to -3.3% year-on-year, with new housing sales declining while prices continue to rise [14]. - The construction area growth rate rebounded significantly, although new construction area growth remains negative [14]. Employment and Future Outlook - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a stable employment situation despite external disruptions [15]. - There is cautious optimism regarding external demand, with potential benefits from future tariff negotiations and European recovery efforts [15].

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 黄金区间震荡，铜、油震荡上行。 内需： 地产需求疲软，汽车有所改善；节后服务消费热度减退。 ①新房和乘用车回升、二手房走弱，家电月均销售价同比增速多数下跌。6月新房销量增速降幅略有收窄，而二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售由降 转升、而批发有所回落，半钢胎开工率回升。本周家电销售均价多数回升，6月月均销售价同比增速多数下跌。 ②节后服务消费热度减退。节后第一周，电影票房收入下降，同比增速再度转负，酒店平均每间可售房收入续降，同比降幅走扩；商圈人流指数延续小幅下行，但 同比增速略升；在天气因素的叠加影响下，本周上海迪士尼乐园客流明显下降，同比降幅有所走扩。 外需： "抢出口"力度趋弱，美国加征钢制家电关税。 ①6月高频出口数量指标全线回落，运价同比增速大幅下行，指向出口整体放缓。 ②由于担心7月对等关税到期的不确定性，美国集装箱预订有所回落，中国至美国集装箱到港周同比降至低位，而传统转口贸易地区港口停靠量周同比同样回落至 低位，指向整体抢出口力度趋弱。 ③韩国6月前10天出口同比增速回升，品类中半导体和船拉动明显。美对多种钢制家用电器加征50%的关税。 ②中东局势恶化 ...

Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales are recovering, while second-hand housing remains weak; the average sales price of home appliances has mostly declined year-on-year [3] - Post-holiday service consumption has cooled down, with movie box office revenues declining and hotel revenues per available room continuing to drop [4] - The retail of passenger vehicles has turned from decline to growth, while wholesale has seen a decrease; the operating rate of semi-steel tires has rebounded [3] Group 2: External Demand - The intensity of "export grabbing" is weakening, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel household appliances [5] - High-frequency export indicators in June have all declined, indicating an overall slowdown in exports [6] - Concerns over the expiration of reciprocal tariffs in July have led to a decrease in container bookings to the U.S. from China [7] Group 3: Production - The manufacturing sector is showing clear signs of off-season characteristics, with employment in manufacturing reaching a new low [9] - The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have continued to decline, with rebar production decreasing and steel prices showing weak fluctuations [10] - The blue-collar employment index in manufacturing has been below last year's levels for six consecutive weeks, reaching a historical low [11] Group 4: Prices - Prices of major commodities have generally rebounded; domestic cement and rebar prices have increased, while glass and thermal coal prices have continued to decline [12] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushing oil prices up significantly [13] - Geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies have increased global uncertainty, driving gold prices to fluctuate upwards [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of preemptive export orders on future export performance, suggesting that while there may be a decline in export growth, the overall resilience of Chinese manufacturing remains intact due to limited overdraw and significant contributions from incremental demand [1]. Group 1: Export Trends and Tariff Impact - The surge in exports began in November 2024, coinciding with Trump's election victory, leading to a significant increase in exports to the U.S. [2] - In February 2025, a decrease in export activity was noted due to lower-than-expected tariffs on fentanyl, resulting in a notable drop in export growth [2] - By March 2025, renewed expectations of large-scale tariffs led to another wave of preemptive exports [2][3] Group 2: Measurement of Export Overdraw - The analysis of export growth from November 2024 to April 2025 indicates that approximately half of the elevated export growth was due to preemptive orders, while the other half stemmed from genuine incremental orders [4] - A simulation of the scenario post-preemptive orders suggests that while there may be a significant drop in export growth for overdrawn orders, exports to other regions are expected to remain stable [4] Group 3: Future Export Growth Outlook - The overall export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the trend remains stable, with potential impacts from a slowdown in the U.S. economy [5] - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the U.S. could lead to a maximum decline of 2% in the export growth rate, suggesting a baseline export growth rate of around 2.7% for the third quarter [5]