Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman marks a significant shift in market expectations, moving away from an overly accommodative monetary policy to a more disciplined approach focused on the long-term consequences of financial conditions and the costs of balance sheet expansion [2][3]. Group 1: Warsh's Policy Preferences - Warsh is characterized as a "disciplinarian," emphasizing the importance of the central bank's boundaries and the long-term effects of financial conditions, showing a natural aversion to the normalization of unconventional tools like quantitative easing (QE) [3][5]. - He opposes QE not because he is against easing per se, but because he believes it distorts asset prices and exacerbates wealth inequality. He views the use of QE as a crisis response tool rather than a regular option [5][6]. - Warsh acknowledges the necessity of interest rate cuts but emphasizes that lowering rates does not equate to flooding the market with liquidity. He believes current rates may be 50-100 basis points above neutral rates, which he estimates to be around 3% [5][6]. Group 2: Structural Changes in Monetary Policy - Warsh advocates for a reduction in the Federal Reserve's power boundaries, questioning whether the Fed has taken on too many responsibilities that should not fall under its purview. This suggests a higher threshold for intervention during market turmoil [6][7]. - He criticizes the current "ample reserves" framework of the Fed, proposing a return to pre-crisis methods of controlling the federal funds rate through open market operations rather than maintaining excessive reserves [10][11]. - The market anticipates that Warsh's focus on liquidity could lead to increased volatility in the money market, as interbank liquidity would no longer be unlimited, requiring financial institutions to manage liquidity more actively [11][12]. Group 3: Warsh's Background and Political Context - Warsh's career trajectory—from Wall Street to the White House and then to the Federal Reserve—has shaped his critical perspective on monetary policy and institutional costs associated with unconventional tools [13][16]. - His appointment is seen as a strategic choice by Trump, balancing the need for loyalty and the ability to maintain the Fed's independence while addressing market concerns about inflation and monetary discipline [18][19]. - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 create additional pressure for Warsh to align with the White House's political objectives, particularly in managing interest rates to avoid exacerbating living costs for voters [20][21]. Group 4: Market Implications - The midterm elections in November 2026 will likely serve as a pivotal point for Warsh's policy implementation, with a focus on gradual reforms rather than aggressive tightening measures [27][28]. - The communication strategy of the Fed under Warsh may shift to reduce the frequency of forward guidance and limit public statements from officials, leading to increased market uncertainty and volatility [27][29]. - Overall, the market is expected to experience heightened volatility as Warsh's cautious approach to interest rate cuts and potential balance sheet reductions unfolds, particularly affecting high-valuation and leveraged assets [29][30].

Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index increased by 6.62% month-on-month to 50.27 in January 2026 [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 1.6 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,967 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly inventory of hot-rolled steel is at a low level compared to the same period over the past five years [5] - Price changes this week include rebar at -0.93%, cement price index at -0.28%, rubber at -2.45%, coke at 0.00%, coking coal at -1.28%, and iron ore at -3.99% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates changed by +0.00 percentage points, -3.40 percentage points, and -1.3 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide price unchanged and glass price up by 0.28% [6] - The gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1,880 yuan per ton, while the flat glass operating rate is 73.89% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high [7] - Major commodity price changes this week include cold-rolled steel at -0.53%, copper at -4.34%, and aluminum at -6.21%, with corresponding gross profit changes of turning losses into profits and a loss increase of 10.37% and 17.83% respectively [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 72.76%, a decrease of 2.08 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The price of oriented silicon steel has reached a new low since 2018 [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,944.04 yuan per ton, up by 1.17% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 23,110 yuan per ton, down by 6.21%, with a calculated profit of 6,072 yuan per ton (excluding tax), down by 17.83% [8] - The price of electrolytic copper is 100,100 yuan per ton, down by 4.34% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 674,500 yuan per ton, up by 11.49% from last week [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.09 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 60 yuan per ton this week [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled steel and hot-rolled steel reached 370 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan per ton [10] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.10 [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 180 yuan per ton this week, a decrease of 10.00% from last week [10] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar steel is 110 yuan per ton this week [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in January is 47.80%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index is 1,122.15 points this week, down by 4.55% [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.00%, a decrease of 0.90 percentage points [11] - Starting January 1, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export licensing management for certain steel products, which is expected to further regulate China's steel product exports [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.33% this week, with the best-performing cyclical sector being engineering machinery at +4.35% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently 60.06% and 84.30% respectively [12] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently 0.50, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82, reached in August 2017 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pressure on cross - Spring Festival funds is controllable. The overall liquidity in February is expected to remain stable, with the risk of significant fluctuations being under control, although attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [4][71]. - In January, the central bank actively adjusted monetary policy tools. It cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The central bank also increased the scale of bond purchases to maintain liquidity [3][52]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - Month Review of the Capital Market and Liquidity 3.1.1 Capital Market Review - In January 2026, the overnight capital fluctuated in a slightly wider range compared to the previous month, showing an oscillatory upward trend with a fluctuation range of 0.18%. The 7D capital fluctuated in a narrower range and basically remained stable around 1.5%. There was no inversion between overnight and 7D funds [10]. - At the beginning of the month, the central bank significantly withdrew cross - year funds, and the capital operation was generally stable and loose. In the middle of the month, due to the maturity of the 6M reverse repurchase and the freezing of funds for new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, there was a brief friction in the capital market. Later, with the net injection of funds, the liquidity gradually stabilized. Towards the end of the month, the pressure on capital increase was relatively controllable [2][11]. - The capital stratification pressure in January was at a seasonally low level. The spread between R007 and DR007 decreased, and the spread between GC007 and DR007 also compressed, both at seasonally low levels [16]. - The volatility of overnight and 7D funds was at a seasonally low level, and the daily average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly compared to the previous month [23][24]. - Banks' net lending scale remained relatively high, and the net lending scale of money market funds first increased and then decreased [30]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In January, the base money increased by 1.6 billion yuan. The government deposit consumed about 1.1 trillion yuan of the base money, the central bank's net injection was 1.19 trillion yuan, and the foreign exchange funds continued to be slightly withdrawn by 7 billion yuan. After considering factors such as reserve freezing, cash withdrawal, and changes in non - financial institution deposits, the excess reserve at the end of the month decreased by about 692 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was about 1.3%, which was seasonally high. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases was about 0.7%, close to the seasonal level [33]. - **Open - Market Operations**: In January, the central bank slightly withdrew short - term reverse repurchases in the open market, with a net injection of - 3.22 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 90 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan matured, with a balance of 6.95 trillion yuan. The 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases had a net injection of 30 billion yuan in total. The central bank also increased its net purchase of national debt by 10 billion yuan and carried out operations such as treasury time deposits and PSL [39][44]. 3.2 1 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking - In January 2026, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25bp. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, as the exchange rate and net interest margin constraints have eased [3][52]. - The central bank continued its liquidity - caring approach, injecting 1 trillion yuan of medium - term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchases. In January, the central bank increased its bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan [3][52]. - The central bank may further create tools to provide liquidity support for non - bank institutions, and may refer to the SRF and some phased tools. It also promotes the interconnection of financial markets and supports the construction of the offshore RMB market [55]. 3.3 2 - Month Gap Prediction 3.3.1 Rigid Gap - In February, as it is a month with relatively less deposit growth, the increase in general deposits will consume about 3.45 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF maturity is 30 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase maturity is 1.2 trillion yuan (70 billion yuan for 3M and 50 billion yuan for 6M), with 80 billion yuan of the 3M outright reverse repurchase being renewed [58]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks - Due to the late Spring Festival this year, cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits will slightly consume excess reserves in February. The "currency issuance" item may consume about 1.2 trillion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 9.65 billion yuan [62]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors - The government deposit may consume about 44.34 billion yuan of liquidity in February. Considering factors such as bond payment, tax revenue, and fiscal expenditure, the government bond issuance is relatively large this month [67]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment - The overall capital gap pressure in February is similar to that in January, mainly coming from the pressure of cash withdrawal before the Spring Festival and government bond payment. However, considering the current liquidity status of the banking system and the central bank's operation idea of maintaining sufficient liquidity, the cross - year funds are expected to remain stable, and the risk of significant fluctuations is controllable [70][71]. - Since January, the central bank has actively operated monetary policy tools, with an incremental injection of 1 trillion yuan through MLF and 6M outright reverse repurchases, and an increase in the bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan. The 14D reverse repurchase was launched earlier before the Spring Festival, and the cross - Spring Festival pressure is controllable. However, the progress of cross - Spring Festival funds in the inter - bank market is relatively slow, and attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [5][73].

流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 供给高峰平稳落地，关注超长地方债品种利差压缩机会 glmszqdatemark 货币政策与流动性观点：春节将至，央行已经提供较多中期流动性呵护资金面， 供给冲击下资金面非常宽松，本周资金面扰动因素较上周较多，一方面政府债净 缴款上升至 6437 亿元、考虑调休后同业存单到期规模上升至 9719 亿元，另一 方面春节取现需求可能集中释放。得益于央行前期的买断式、MLF、国债买卖操 作，年初以来累计净投放 1.2 万亿元中长期资金，银行体系资金融出状况也不错， 预计资金面能够平稳过节。上周存单有再融资优势，因此利率继续低位运行，本 周开始关注提价情况。 地方债观点：受春节影响，2 月政府债供给节奏前置明显，春节前地方债总发行 9018 亿元，超过 1 月实际发行规模。预计截至 2 月 15 日，地方债累计发行 17652 亿元，其中超长地方债发行 9421 亿元，占比为 53%；置换债发行 5899 亿元 （2025 年同期 3781 亿元），对 7Y、10Y 置换债供给大幅增加。目前发行计划调 整后 2-3 月计划分别为 8149 亿元和 9609 亿元，预计 2 月实际供给在 1 ...

1、回顾看，自 2012 年"强制结售汇"退出、汇率市场化推进后，外汇 由"藏汇于国"转为"藏汇于民"，待结汇资金逐步累积，其规模变化主要 与利差、汇率预期等因素有关。 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 09 年 月 日 宏观点评 待结汇资金超万亿，对人民币影响几何？ 我们此前报告《人民币汇率"破 7"：原因、展望、影响》中指出，集中结 汇是本轮人民币汇率升值的重要原因之一。本篇报告进一步定量测算了待 结汇资金的规模、持汇成本，复盘了结汇与汇率表现之间的关系，并拆解 了企业结汇与流动性、信用扩张的关系，以期全面分析待结汇资金的影响。 核心结论：大体测算，2022 年以来累积的待结汇资金规模约 1.13 万亿美 元，持汇成本多集中在 7.0-7.2，加权平均为 7.1。因此，当前人民币升值 的背景下，叠加人民币资产吸引力上升，企业结汇可能延续。但从历史复 盘来看，汇率的实际表现并不仅仅取决于结汇规模这单一变量，而是由基 本面预期、美元走势等共同决定，不宜根据结汇规模直接映射汇率升值幅 度。往后看，维持我们此前判断："十五五"开局之年，国内经济总体保持 稳步增长，外部风险相对可 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market has entered a bullish trend due to increased liquidity and a decline in risk appetite, with the 10Y government bond yield decreasing by 0.90 basis points to 1.8000% compared to the previous week [2][3] - The central bank's continuous reverse repurchase operations have maintained liquidity stability, leading to a significant increase in market leverage and a notable rise in interbank pledged repo transaction volume [24][29] - The net supply of interest rate bonds and certificates of deposit has increased significantly, with a total net supply of interest rate bonds reaching 8829.27 billion yuan, up 5024.12 billion yuan from the previous week [31][34] Group 2 - The report highlights that the yield curve for interest rate bonds is flattening, indicating a bullish trend, with the 10Y government bond yield showing a notable performance [42][43] - The report notes that the yield spreads across various maturities have generally narrowed, with specific spreads such as the 1Y National Development Bank bond to government bond and the 10Y National Development Bank bond to government bond also narrowing [54][56] - The upcoming week will see significant issuance of local government bonds, and attention will be paid to the issuance results across different maturities [3][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a general decline in non-ferrous metal prices, while gold, tungsten, molybdenum, and vanadium prices have increased on a month-on-month basis [1] - The liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises has improved, with the BCI index rising by 6.62% to 50.27 in January 2026 [11] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing low inventory levels for hot-rolled steel, indicating potential supply constraints [21] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises increased to 50.27, reflecting a positive shift in financing conditions [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, indicating a contraction in liquidity [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly inventory levels for hot-rolled steel are at a five-year low, with rebar prices down by 0.93% [21] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 86%, unchanged from the previous week [9] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, while the prices for cold-rolled, copper, and aluminum have decreased [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 23,110 CNY/ton, down 6.21% from the previous week [2] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.33%, with the engineering machinery sector showing the best performance at +4.35% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.50, indicating potential undervaluation [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass remain low, with the glass operating rate at 73.89% [1][76] - The cumulative year-on-year change in completed residential area was -18.10% for 2025 [76]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The capital market remains loose, and the yields of interest - rate bonds have declined slightly overall. The risk - assets in the market continued to decline this week, but the mood improved on Friday. The Fed's new chairman nomination has raised doubts about the degree of easing, while the double - easing policy brought about by the high - vote victory of Japan's Komeito Party is expected to enhance global liquidity and support the subsequent rise of risk - assets. Before the holiday, it is expected that risk - assets may rise further, and the liquidity environment will improve. It is recommended to maintain the bond position for the upcoming nine - day holiday [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Capital and Interest - rate Bond Yield Situation - This week, DR007 ranged from 1.46% to 1.50%, and DR001 ranged from 1.28% to 1.36%. The central levels of DR001 and DR007 both declined compared with the previous week [1] - The yields of interest - rate bonds declined slightly this week. For treasury bonds, the 1 - year yield rose 2bp, the 3 - year and 5 - year yields declined 2bp each, the 7 - year yield declined 1bp, and the 10 - year yield remained flat. For CDB bonds, the 1 - year yield declined 1bp, the 3 - year yield declined 2bp, the 5 - year yield declined 4bp, the 7 - year yield declined 3bp, and the 10 - year yield declined 3bp [1][2] 3.2 Yield Changes of Treasury Bonds and CDB Bonds | Variety | 1 - year | 3 - year | 5 - year | 7 - year | 10 - year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Treasury Bond (Weekly Change, BP) | +2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | 0 | | Treasury Bond (Monthly Change, BP) | +1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | | Treasury Bond (Annual Change, BP) | -1 | 0 | -6 | -6 | -3 | | CDB Bond (Weekly Change, BP) | -1 | -2 | -4 | -3 | -3 | | CDB Bond (Monthly Change, BP) | -2 | -2 | -3 | -3 | -2 | | CDB Bond (Annual Change, BP) | +2 | -2 | -5 | -6 | -3 | [2][3] 3.3 Term Spread Situation - On February 6, the 10 - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds was 48.95bp, and that of CDB bonds was 39.44bp, narrowing 2.18bp and 0.88bp respectively compared with January 30 [3] 3.4 Market and Operation Suggestions - This week, the risk - assets in the market continued to decline, but the mood improved on Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index was in the red for most of the day and then closed down at the end of the session. The bond yields were strongly consolidated above 1.80%. Overnight, US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and precious metals rebounded significantly [4] - The Fed's new chairman nomination has raised doubts about the degree of easing, while Japan's double - easing policy is expected to enhance global liquidity and support the subsequent rise of risk - assets. Before the holiday, it is expected that risk - assets may rise further, and the liquidity environment will improve [4] - For the upcoming nine - day holiday, it is recommended that both trading and investment accounts in the bond market maintain their positions and do not need to reduce holdings. The upcoming price data is of limited reference due to the Spring Festival date misalignment, and potential emergencies during the holiday should be noted if geopolitical negotiations such as the US - Iran negotiations do not go well [4]

Domestic Economic Indicators - CPI and PPI are showing divergence, with January CPI expected to be 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI is projected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month but decrease by 1.2% year-on-year [1][10] - January credit growth may not meet last year's levels, with notable increases in bill rates compared to the previous year and a bank acceptance ratio of approximately 72%, higher than last year's 67.2%, indicating weaker credit issuance [10] Overseas Economic Developments - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman may face procedural delays due to a request from Senate Democrats and a Republican to postpone the nomination until investigations into current Chairman Powell and other board members conclude [3][13] - Polls suggest that the Liberal Democratic Party may secure over 233 seats in the 465-seat House of Representatives, potentially allowing them to escape the constraints of coalition governance [3][13] Asset Market Insights - Global liquidity may benefit from Japan's potential escape from coalition governance, which opposes early interest rate hikes and advocates for a weaker yen, thus supporting global liquidity [4][11] - Domestic technology sectors should monitor U.S. stock trends, with limited risks but potential opportunities in Q2; PPI may turn positive earlier in Q2, benefiting sectors like electricity, construction materials, steel, new energy, and chemicals [4][11] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank has implemented a "shorten and lengthen" strategy in liquidity management, with a net withdrawal of 7-day liquidity while injecting 14-day and 3-month liquidity, indicating a protective stance on liquidity [5][12] - Average funding prices have decreased by 5-10 basis points across various instruments, reflecting a downward trend in liquidity costs [5][15] Government Debt and Financing - Local government debt net financing reached 579.37 billion yuan, while national debt net financing was 212 billion yuan, totaling 791.37 billion yuan for the week [7][16] - Upcoming issuance plans include 322.14 billion yuan in local government bonds and 130 billion yuan in national bonds, with net financing expectations of 320.05 billion yuan and a negative net financing of 249.89 billion yuan for national bonds [7][16]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 春节海外：机会更多，还是风险更大？ ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，春节错位，预计 1 月 CPI 同比 0.2%；1 月有色、能化接连上涨， 预计 PPI 环比增长 0.3%，对应 PPI 同比-1.2%。 海外方面，1）沃什提名美联储主席恐陷入程序僵局。2）高市或即将摆脱联合 执政的掣肘，其反对过早加息、主张弱日元，实则利好全球流动性。 资产方面，1）近期特朗普强调提名沃什因其支持降息，进而，美股进一步重 挫风险有限。预计中选前，全球不太会出现因日本套息交易反转及美联储政策 收紧的流动性冲击，3-9 月地方中选密集期，美股大概率中枢上移。2）国内科 技等方向需观察美股走势，风险有限，但机会或在 Q2；PPI 或于 Q2 提前转 正，叠加"十五五"碳减排助力，通胀方向资产均将受益，目前仍是"交易科 技、重视通胀、关注地产消费"思路。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《PMI 淡季回落———2026 年 1 月 PMI 点评》2026-02-01 2、《如何看 2025 年财政数据 与 2026 年一季度财政节奏？》 2026-01-31 3 ...