大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 07 月 09 日 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一部分 | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | 日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 2,012.5 | 6.3 | 0.31% | 25,398.0 | -55.96% | 31,348.0 | -10.58% | | EC2510 | 1,390.0 | -4.7 | -0.34% | 10,290.0 | -52.16% | 29,642.0 | -2.58% | | EC2512 | 1,553.7 | -21.6 | -1.37% | 2,085.0 | -44.15% | 6,098.0 | -1.26% | | EC2602 | 1,353.4 ...

早盘速递 2025/7/9 热点资讯 1. 利比里亚代表团向国际海事组织报告，胡塞武装袭击也门荷台达附近由希腊运营、悬挂利比里亚国旗的"ETERNITY C"船 只后，两人遇难。航运分析显示，这是自2024年6月以来红海首次发生海员遇难事件。 重点关注 焦煤、纯苯、甲醇、尿素、沥青 夜盘表现 板块表现 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.82% 贵金属, 27.55% 油脂油料, 12.51% 有色, 20.69% 软商品, 2.84% 煤焦钢矿, 13.84% 能源, 3.11% 化工, 12.69% 谷物, 1.18% 农副产品, 2.77% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a rebound in the US dollar, with expectations for the euro to rise to 1.20 in the long term, despite potential short-term corrections [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index outperformed European stock markets in June, reversing a trend of underperformance over the previous five months [1] - The yield premium on long-term US Treasury bonds has decreased from high levels, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Impact - The current market order is perceived as more stable compared to the period following the large-scale tariff policies introduced in April [1] - Investors seem to believe that the impacts of US policies may not be as severe as previously feared [1] Group 3: Currency Forecast - The euro is expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar over the next 12 months, although there is room for further short-term corrections [1]

港股IPO市场热度持续升温。7月9日，由中信证券独家保荐的蓝思科技于香港联交所主板上 市，绿鞋后发行规模54.83亿港元（足额行使的前提下），成为中信证券 2025 年内港股 IPO 中融资规模最大的项目。 不仅仅是蓝思科技的港股上市， 7月9日，对港交所来说，又迎来"铜锣不够用"的一天，还有 讯众通信、大众口腔、极智嘉-W、峰岹科技等共5家企业今日港股上市，包括一家ETF上市， 现场同时敲响6面铜锣。 回顾上半年，港股IPO市场的主推力无疑来自"A股+H股"模式的热潮。一批A股大型企业赴港 上市，不仅为港股注入强劲动力，更有龙头企业凭借可观的融资规模跻身全球IPO融资前十。 A股企业的二次上市浪潮，也直接推动港交所上半年融资规模达到880亿港元，重回全球首 位。 下半年才刚启程，就迎来蓝思科技的H股发行上市，47.68亿港元的融资规模仅次于宁德时 代、恒瑞医药、海天味业、三花智控，跻身前五。这一A+H的上市案例则呈现多项关键性突 破。 一是这是香港市场近二十年来首个投行独家保荐完成的千亿市值以上A to H项目； 二是香港市场消费科技领域今年以来最大规模的IPO； 三是自递交H股以来，从申请上市到完成H股上 ...

亚洲溢价显著推升原油市场 多空博弈进入拉锯阶段 一、日度市场总结 从原油期货数据来看，中国SC原油价格单日上涨1.67%至510.7元/桶，而 WTI和Brent连续两日维持67.92和69.6美元/桶不变，凸显亚洲市场活跃度 提升。价差层面，SC-Brent和SC-WTI价差分别扩大290%和57%，创出1.6和 3.28美元/桶新高，反映中国原油期货相对外盘的溢价显著增强。与此同 时，SC近月合约升水连3合约价差从14.8元扩大到17.8元，近月合约强势表 明短期交割品存在结构性紧缺。 供需格局变化显示多重博弈。供应端利空因素正在积聚：沙特4月原油出口 环比增加41.2万桶/日，印证OPEC+产量政策松动；利比亚大型油田重启勘 探及美国与印尼签署原油采购协议，均指向中长期供应增量。但中东地缘 风险提供支撑，以色列与胡塞武装冲突升级刺激油价盘中反弹，不过市场 普遍认为冲突扩散概率较低。需求端呈现区域分化：山东独立炼厂本周到 港量环比下滑7.5%至136.5万吨，反映中国地方炼厂采购节奏放缓，但欧美 旺季需求强劲成为支撑，IEA口径表观消费增速超预期推动WTI盘中收复跌 幅。 库存变化释放微妙信号。中质含硫原 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese land market in the first half of the year shows a "frozen and fiery" situation, with core cities experiencing fierce competition for high-quality land, while third and fourth-tier cities remain cold [1][12] - The total land transfer revenue from 300 cities reached 859.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, despite a 5.5% decrease in transaction area [3][12] - The top 20 cities accounted for 68% of the national land transfer revenue, with second-tier cities surpassing first-tier cities in average premium rates [2][4] Land Market Performance - In the first half of the year, 19 cities had land transfer revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Hangzhou and Beijing each surpassing 100 billion yuan [4][5] - Hangzhou's total transaction amount reached 116.1 billion yuan, a 96% increase year-on-year, nearing its total for the entire year of 2024 [5] - Beijing's residential land transaction total was 100.6 billion yuan, up 37.3% year-on-year, driven by high-value and scarce land parcels [5] Regional Disparities - Shanghai's residential land transactions totaled 63.8 billion yuan, with an additional 80 billion yuan from private agreements, bringing the total to over 140 billion yuan [6] - Chengdu increased the supply of quality land, with 56 parcels sold, 28 of which had premiums, including one with a premium rate of 106% [7] - In contrast, cities like Wuhan, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, and Tianjin saw most land sold at base prices due to large inventory and cautious investment from developers [8] Premium Rates and Investment Trends - The average premium rate for residential land across 300 cities was 10.2%, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities saw a 49.5% increase in land transfer revenue, while second-tier cities experienced an 18.3% increase in transaction area and a 43.5% increase in land transfer revenue [12] - The average premium rate for second-tier cities reached 13.6%, surpassing that of first-tier cities, indicating a shift in investment focus [12] Future Outlook - Companies are expected to prioritize project safety and profitability, with core areas in hot cities likely to maintain high premium transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities will continue to see base price sales [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.06% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 1.76% in July, while A-shares have been rising, leading to a rebound in the AH share premium [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index recorded declines in July, contrasting with the upward trend in A-shares, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3500 points [1] - As of July 9, the AH share premium has rebounded to 130.64, an increase of over 2% from mid-June [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Among the 160 AH shares, only three companies—CATL, Hengrui Medicine, and WuXi AppTec—are trading at a premium for their H-shares compared to A-shares, with CATL's premium exceeding 30% and Hengrui Medicine's over 11% [1][2] - CATL's H-shares have risen nearly 17% in July, while its A-shares increased by 7.37%, leading to an expanding premium [2][3] - Hengrui Medicine's H-shares have surged over 29% since their listing on May 23, while A-shares rose by 10.19%, resulting in a significant premium for H-shares [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market dynamics indicate that CATL and Hengrui Medicine are core assets in the domestic new energy and innovative drug sectors, attracting significant capital in the Hong Kong market [3] - The liquidity of H-shares for both companies is considerably lower than that of A-shares, making it easier to drive up H-share prices [4] Group 4: Recent Developments - CATL has signed a comprehensive electrification deepening strategic cooperation agreement with Geely Auto, focusing on battery technology collaboration and supply chain development [4] - Hengrui Medicine has received approval for clinical trials of two new drugs, with one targeting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), indicating a strong pipeline of innovative drugs [5]

人民币国际化是一项长期任务，但国际化进程与中国经济在全球地位提升相比还是慢了。本文探讨人民币 国际化进程加快的可能性，并对由此带来的利弊进行分析。马克思曾在《资本论》中写道：从商品到货币 的过程是一次惊险的跳跃。那么，人民币从当前状态锐变为全球认可度很高的国际货币，是否也会是惊险 一跃？本文主要从"流动性溢价"角度来论述人民币加快国际化步伐的可行性及意义。 本文要点： 当前人民币国际化水平与中国经济体量不相匹配。人民币在外汇交易、国际支付、贸易融资、储备 货币等方面的国际占比远低于经济体量占比。 人民币支付在全球份额或存在低估。货币互换协议和CIPS的使用规模明显增加，SWIFT对人民币支 付的统计不完全，实际人民币支付结算比例估计在8%左右。但人民币支付存在地域方面较为狭小的 问题，国际支付主要发生在香港，占比超过7成。 历史经验表明，加速人民币国际化并不必然导致人民币贬值。我国2005年汇改后，人民币对美元连 续九年升值。 一个经济体货币的PPP汇率与市场汇率之差，实际上就是该货币的风险溢价，风险溢价=流动性溢价 +信用溢价。要缩小汇率差，一方面要改善流动性，另一方面则要增强货币信用。 人民币市场汇率相比 ...

Group 1 - Five companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 9, marking a significant event not seen since December 30, 2022 [2] - The companies involved are Lens Technology, Geek+, Fortior Technology, Xunzhong Communication, and Dazhong Oral [2] - Dazhong Oral saw a peak increase of nearly 35%, while Fortior Technology peaked at nearly 20%, closing up 15.25% and 14.11% respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The number of IPOs and the amount of funds raised in Hong Kong this month have already exceeded 50% of last month's totals, with 8 companies raising 16.851 billion HKD [5] - In June, 15 companies raised 27.868 billion HKD, indicating a strong upward trend in the IPO market [5] - The Hong Kong market is experiencing a positive momentum, with the Hang Seng Index rising 20% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest increase in points for the first half of the year [5] Group 3 - The first-day IPO performance shows a significant reduction in the rate of stocks breaking below their issue price, indicating a strong profit potential for investors [7] - New listings have added growth and attractiveness to the Hong Kong market, with notable stocks like Pop Mart and others experiencing substantial price increases [7] - The premium index for A-shares and H-shares has been declining, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [8]

Group 1 - The global oil market is entering a new period of increased volatility due to unpredictable supply changes, misleading demand signals, geopolitical uncertainties, and deteriorating economic sentiment [1] - Recent abnormal fluctuations in diesel price spreads indicate that traders need a more comprehensive analytical framework to understand the market [1] - The traditional indicators, such as the diesel price spread, are failing to accurately reflect mid-term demand due to extreme weather conditions in Europe and North America [1] Group 2 - The refining industry is facing a capacity crisis, with global refining margins remaining at historically high levels despite concerns over an economic recession [2] - A total of 400,000 barrels per day of refining capacity in Europe is confirmed to be closing, including facilities in Grangemouth and several German refineries [2] - The impact of these closures has not yet fully reflected in current prices, indicating potential future price increases [2] Group 3 - The key observation point is whether the arbitrage trade from the Middle East and India to Europe will restart, serving as an early warning signal for regional supply tightness [3] - The phenomenon of "disappearing barrels" continues to perplex analysts, as the actual tightness in physical inventories far exceeds official supply-demand forecasts [3] - If U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela lead to further reductions in crude oil exports, it could trigger significant market disruptions this year [3]