| - 市场监测 | | --- | | (一) 市场流动性回顾 3 | | (二) 债券市场回顾 b | | 1、 债券市场整体情况 6 | | 2. 国债、国开债利率变动 7 | | 3. 中短期票据利率变动 9 | | 4、 信用债利率变动 11 | | (三) 权益市场回顾 | | 1、 股市本月变动 13 | | 2、 投资风格变化 | | 3. 投资行业变化 | | (四) 资产配置建议 . | | 1、 固定收益市场 18 | | 2, 权益市场 . | | ・ 〔 基金监测 | | (一) 基金发行趋势 . | | 1、 新发基金增量 | | 2. 公募基金市场存续情况 22 | | (二) 基金业绩表现 | | 三、基金运作情况 . | | (一) 货币型基金 | | (二) 债券型基金 25 | | (三) 混合型基 | | (四) 股票型基金 | | 四、 普盖基金 11月投资观点 | 【转载本报告请注明来源：普益标准（ID：pystandard）】 一、市场监测 （一）市场流动性回顾 平稳。展望12月，资金面将面临年末考核、政府债收尾发行等压力，跨年扰动因素影响或有所显现，但考 虑到后 ...

在通胀方面，剔除生鲜食品后的消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅近期维持在约3%。日本央行强调，随 着工资上涨持续向销售价格传导，基础性CPI通胀继续呈现"温和上升态势"。央行判断，"工资与价格同 步温和上涨的机制将得以维持"，并认为在2025年10月《经济活动与物价展望》预测期后半段，基础性 CPI通胀率"大体与2%的价格稳定目标相一致"的基准情景可能性正在上升。 新华财经北京12月19日电 12月19日，日本央行结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将政策利率由0.5% 上调至0.75%，加息幅度为25个基点。此举使日本政策利率达到30年来的最高水平。根据会议声明，该 决定获得政策委员会全体委员一致通过。 与此同时，日本央行对货币市场操作指引作出相应调整。央行明确表示，将引导无担保隔夜拆借利率维 持在约0.75%的水平，并同步修订相关利率工具： 补充性存款便利适用利率设定为0.75%，适用于金融机构在日本央行往来账户余额中扣除法定准备金后 的部分；基本贷款利率（补充性贷款便利项下）设定为1.0%。 在经济评估方面，日本央行指出，当前日本经济整体呈现"温和复苏态势"，但局部仍存在疲弱。劳动力 市场持续偏紧，企业利润总 ...

金融研究 2025年12月19日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 18 日，A 股四大股指多数下跌，其中上证指数上涨 0.16%，报收 3876.37 点；深 成指下跌 1.29%，报收 13053.97 点；创业板指下跌 2.17%，报收 3107.06 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.46%， 报收 1305.97 点。市场成交 16,768 亿元，较前日减少 1,576 亿元。行业板块方面，银行(+1.97%)， 煤炭(+1.89%)，石油石化(+1.25%)涨幅居前；电力设备(-2.22%)，通信(-1.58%)，电子(-1.51%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IM>IC>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,843/199/2,413。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-113、-179、1、290 亿元，分别变动-160、-64、+147、+77 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 59.4、31.04、21.59 与 9.32 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-10.21%、-5.46%、-5.93%与-3.88%，三年期历 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the Bank of England's interest rate decision, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% due to weak economic indicators [1] - The UK economy shows signs of weakness, with rising unemployment and slowing wage growth, which supports the expectation of monetary easing [1] - The recent PMI data provided short-term support for the pound, but most institutions believe it will not alter the rate cut trajectory [1] Group 2 - The UK autumn budget introduced a £22 billion fiscal buffer, which helped reduce short positions on the pound and pushed the exchange rate above 1.335 [2] - The tightening policies in the budget may constrain economic growth, and the inflation rate remains significantly above the Bank of England's target [2] - There is a divergence in institutional forecasts for the pound, with some predicting a slight decline due to economic pressures and rate cuts, while others see potential for a short-term rebound if rate cuts are less than expected [2] Group 3 - The exchange rate is currently balanced, with short-term fluctuations expected between 1.3350 and 1.3380, with key support at 1.3350 and resistance at 1.3400 [2] - The long-term outlook for the pound depends on the divergence in monetary policy between the UK and the US, as well as the recovery of the UK economy and fiscal conditions [2] - Global capital flows and other variables are also important factors to consider in the pound's valuation [2]

博富临置业(00225)发布截至2025年9月30日止年度业绩，该集团取得收入1.74亿港元，同比增加3.82%; 公司拥有人应占亏损2.16亿港元，同比减少63.88%;每股亏损1.96港元，拟派发末期股息每股32港仙。 于2025年财政年度，受该等市场动态影响，本集团的租金表现仍有所恢复。本集团办公、零售及住宅物 业的入住率及租金收入全年保持稳定，选择性续租及新租赁出现复苏迹象。展望2026年，本集团将对短 期波动保持警惕，并继续优先维持稳健的入住率。本集团亦将审慎地优化其金融投资策略，以提高集团 收入。总之，本集团对香港及中国内地的经济复苏前景持谨慎乐观态度，并将随时准备抓住可持续发展 的机遇。 ...

声明表示，出口增长反映了以色列经济的韧性，以及在经历了多线作战的"战争状态"后，经济仍能复苏 和发展的能力。出口增长还反映了对人力资本的投资以及对新市场的拓展，这些都为以色列经济的持续 增长奠定了基础。 （文章来源：新华财经） 同时，声明说，由于主要目标市场依然疲软，预计商品出口将从2024年的603亿美元下降5.5%至约570 亿美元。 声明说，2025年以色列对亚洲的出口持续增长，增幅达3.5%，而对非洲、拉丁美洲和大洋洲的出口则 呈现温和增长。对欧盟国家的出口下降约11%，对美国的出口下降约4%。 新华财经耶路撒冷12月16日电（记者王卓伦冯国芮）以色列经济产业部16日发表声明说，预计2025年该 国出口额达到约1600亿美元，比2024年增长3%，接近2022年创下的1650亿美元的纪录。 根据声明，服务出口占出口总额的52%，预计将增长9%，达到1010亿美元，高于2024年的927亿美元。 增长主要由软件、研发等高科技服务带动，凸显了这一行业对经济稳定的贡献。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro to USD exchange rate is stabilizing around 1.1746, with market sentiment cautious ahead of key events, particularly the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting on December 18, where it is widely expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2% [1] Group 1: ECB Policy Outlook - Market expectations have shifted, with over 60% of economists predicting the ECB will raise interest rates next, contrasting with previous expectations of easing, driven by inflation trends approaching the 2% target [2] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that current monetary policy is at an "appropriate level" and there is no need for rate adjustments, while also hinting at potential upward revisions to economic growth forecasts [1][2] Group 2: Economic Data Analysis - Eurozone economic data shows a mixed picture, with December business activity growth slowing for the second consecutive month; manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.2, indicating contraction, while services PMI remained in expansion at 52.6 [2] - In the US, November non-farm payrolls showed mixed results with job additions of 64,000 exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in recent years, indicating a slowdown in economic recovery [2] Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The recent "hawkish rate cut" signal from the Federal Reserve after its third rate cut of the year has created a policy divergence that supports the Euro against the USD [2] - The nominal strength of the Euro has raised concerns, as its real strength is at historical highs, potentially impacting Eurozone export competitiveness and posing challenges to ECB policy [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The Euro to USD exchange rate maintains a positive short-term structure, trading above the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages, with a core trading range identified between 1.1730 and 1.1790 [3] - Key resistance levels are noted between 1.1790 and 1.1800, with a potential target of 1.1840 if this resistance is breached; upcoming ECB decisions and US economic data will be critical for determining future price movements [3]

·澳联邦银行：澳储行或于2026年启动加息，抗通胀成政策核心 【机构分析】 ·野村证券预计，韩国央行已结束本轮降息周期，2026年将维持基准利率不变，政策风险转向加息。韩 国经济有望在2026年二季度弥合产出缺口，受益于消费回暖、建筑业复苏及半导体行业景气度上行，进 一步降息必要性下降。 ·Convera策略师称，若英国央行降息但释放谨慎前瞻指引，英镑可能上涨。若降息投票接近或部分委员 反对，将传递鹰派信号，抑制市场对大幅宽松的预期。 ·野村证券：韩国央行降息周期结束，2026年风险转向加息 ·标普全球：英国PMI企稳回升，企业信心修复但增长仍微弱 ·若货币政策声明暗示进一步降息空间有限，投资者或重新定价宽松周期，推动英镑和英债收益率短期 反弹。交易关键在于英国央行"行动"与"言辞"的背离，鹰派前瞻指引或比降息本身更主导市场短期走 势。 ·德国智库ZEW称，应对贸易冲突、地缘政治紧张及投资不足的改革措施或将纳入2026年议程。扩张性 财政政策有望为德国经济注入新动力。市场预期明显转乐观，结束三年停滞，德国经济复苏前景向好。 ·标普全球指出，英国12月综合PMI升至52.1，企业信心回升，主因财政预算后加税不确 ...

格隆汇12月16日｜德国智库ZEW：预期已变得更加乐观。经过三年的经济停滞，经济复苏的机遇良 好，这一趋势也反映在市场情绪中。扩张性财政政策将为德国经济提供新动力。应对持续贸易冲突、地 缘政治紧张局势以及投资缺失的措施，很可能也将列入2026年的改革议程。 ...

Macro: Supply and Demand Gap Widening - In November, supply growth slightly decreased year-on-year, with industrial added value and service production indices at 4.8% and 4.2% respectively, compared to 4.9% and 4.2% in October [5] - The demand structure showed marginal improvement in export delivery value, while domestic demand growth declined, primarily driven by the decrease in industrial added value growth [5] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with construction installation projects being the main factor for the overall investment decline [7] Consumer Sector: Consumption Growth Slows - In November, total retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.6 percentage points from October, the lowest monthly growth rate in 2023 [6] - The decline in consumption was attributed to weakened support from trade-in programs and high base effects from the previous year, particularly in categories like home appliances (-19.4%) and automotive (-8.3%) [6] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival caused a shift in consumption patterns, pulling forward sales from November, which contributed to the slowdown in retail sales growth [6] Investment: Fixed Asset Investment Decline - The cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment expanded to 2.6% from January to November, with construction installation projects being the primary contributor [7] - The November fixed asset investment saw a seasonally adjusted month-on-month decline of 1.03%, a slight narrowing from October's 1.51% [7] - The government is expected to push for investment stabilization, with additional funding support anticipated to improve investment data by 2026 [7] Real Estate: Continued Weakness - The real estate market remains weak, with new housing sales area declining by 17.3% year-on-year in November, a slight improvement from October's 18.8% decline [10] - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 30.3% in November, indicating a cautious approach from developers amid weak market demand [10] - The overall investment environment remains pressured, with the government emphasizing the need for stabilization measures [10] Financial Sector: Credit Demand Weakness - In November, new social financing increased by 2.5 trillion yuan, but new RMB loans decreased by 390 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand [25][26] - The decline in credit demand is attributed to slow recovery in the real economy and weakened demand in the real estate sector [26] - The government bonds and corporate bonds have been the main contributors to social financing, indicating a reliance on these instruments for economic support [26] Commodity Sector: Demand Needs Boost - In November, domestic crude oil production was 4.3 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while net imports were 12.43 million barrels per day, up 4.8% [15] - The steel sector faced a decline in production, with crude steel output down 10.9% year-on-year in November, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels [17] - The copper market showed a year-on-year increase in production by 9.7% in November, but demand remained subdued due to seasonal factors [19]