2月4日隔夜，全球市场出现多重异动，美股收跌，科技股遭遇集中抛售，金银价格出现反弹，美伊相关 局势推动国际油价上行，美国总统特朗普公开表示正与伊朗进行谈判。 美股市场方面，三大指数集体收跌，大型科技股遭遇抛售，投资者转而布局与经济复苏更广泛相关的股 票品类。国际贵金属市场出现反弹，黄金、白银价格出现回升。受美伊相关局势影响，国际油价出现上 行波动。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 当地时间2月3日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署政府拨款法案时对外透露，与伊朗本周的谈判仍在继续， 伊朗方面有意愿采取行动。特朗普称，双方"正在进行谈判"，他希望能够通过对话达成某种结果，暂不 对外透露会谈具体地点，同时提及"与伊朗的会晤不止一次"。特朗普表示，相关方曾有机会达成协议但 未能成功，他不希望再次出现类似去年对伊实施"午夜之锤"军事行动的情况。 伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃3日同步对外回应，称"谈判计划已制定，预计将在未来几天举行。目前正在进 行磋商以确定谈判地点，一旦确定，我们将立即公布"。巴加埃同时透露，土耳其、阿曼以及该地区其 他一些 ...

Core Viewpoint - Southern European countries, including Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Italy, are showing strong economic recovery post the Eurozone debt crisis, with projected compound annual growth rates from 2021 to 2024 significantly exceeding the Eurozone average [1][2] Economic Growth - The compound annual growth rates for Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Italy from 2021 to 2024 are projected at 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.6%, and 3.2% respectively, compared to the Eurozone's overall growth of 2.4% [1] - By 2025, growth rates for Spain, Portugal, and Greece are expected to be 2.9%, 1.9%, and 2.1%, while Italy's growth is forecasted at 0.4% [1] Contributing Factors - The rapid recovery of the tourism sector post-pandemic is a key driver, with tourism contributing over 10% to the GDP of these countries from 2022 to 2025 [1] - The EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility, amounting to approximately €650 billion, has provided significant funding for public infrastructure and green and digital transitions, benefiting these countries [2] - Structural reforms, such as Spain's labor market reform in 2021, have bolstered consumer confidence and supported service sector recovery [2] Long-term Challenges - There are concerns about the sustainability of growth, as reliance on tourism may expose economies to external shocks [3] - Public debt levels remain high, with Greece at 154.2%, Italy at 134.9%, Spain at 101.6%, and Portugal at 93.6%, limiting future investment capacity [3] - The effectiveness of EU funds in driving structural upgrades is still limited, with R&D investment intensity showing only marginal increases [3] Future Outlook - The current economic recovery is seen as a temporary phase, with the need for deeper reforms to transition from reliance on tourism and fiscal stimulus to enhancing productivity and innovation [4] - The ability to maintain growth amidst decreasing external support and rising global uncertainties will be crucial for these economies to establish sustainable competitiveness [4]

金融研究 2026年2月4日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：2 月 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 1.29%，报收 点；深成指 3 4067.74 | | --- | --- | | | 上涨 2.19%，报收 14127.11 点；创业板指上涨 1.86%，报收 3324.89 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.39%， | | | 报收 1471.07 点。市场成交 25,656 亿元，较前日减少 410 亿元。行业板块方面，综合(+5.63%)，国 | | | 防军工(+4.42%)，机械设备(+3.98%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.85%)，非银金融(+0.17%)，煤炭(+0.38%) | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,852/91/529。沪深两市，机构、 | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 105、-89、-176、159 亿元，分别变动+489、+67、-398、 | | 股指期货 | -159 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 26.1、4.7、7.11 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expected overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index within the next six months [3][40]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the banking sector's performance is entering a recovery phase, with a focus on the stability of interest margins and the potential for improved asset quality as the economy recovers [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strong capital positions and reliable dividend payouts for investment selection, recommending specific banks based on their financial health and market position [7]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index experienced changes of -0.44% and +0.08% respectively, while the banking sector index rose by 0.86%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.78 percentage points [10][11]. - Notable performances within the banking sector included increases in share prices for major state-owned banks such as Bank of China (+1.90%) and Agricultural Bank of China (+0.81%) [13][14]. Data Tracking - As of January 30, 2026, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.65, indicating a valuation at the 70.10 percentile over the past five years [6][19]. - The median dividend yield for individual stocks in the sector is 4.54%, which is 2.73 percentage points higher than the yield on 10-year government bonds [6][19]. Industry Dynamics - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%, reflecting a balanced approach to managing inflation and employment concerns [33][35]. - The China Banking Association has introduced guidelines for the collection of personal consumption loans, aiming to standardize practices and promote healthy industry development [37][39].

Core Viewpoint - Investment advisors are optimistic about the A-share market in 2026, with nearly 90% expecting an upward trend, and a consensus forming around economic recovery and increased capital inflow [6][7][13]. Group 1: Market Outlook - 88% of investment advisors are bullish on the A-share market for 2026, with 58% expecting an index increase of over 5% [6][14]. - Advisors predict a structural market characterized by fluctuations, with 46% expecting repeated index oscillations and significant gains in certain sectors [14][16]. - The consensus on macroeconomic recovery is strengthening, with 80% of advisors holding optimistic or neutral views on the economy [10][33]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - 67% of advisors recommend increasing allocations to equities, with 68% favoring stocks in the first quarter of 2026 [21][19]. - Advisors are shifting from a focus on growth stocks to a more balanced approach, with 42% expecting growth and dividend styles to converge [16][19]. - High dividend stocks are gaining attention, with 37% of advisors considering them reasonably valued, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [18][19]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The predominant strategy remains flexible thematic investment, with 47% of advisors advocating for this approach, while 29% are focusing on value investing [22][33]. - Advisors suggest maintaining a higher equity position, with 80% recommending a minimum of 50% equity allocation for clients [22][33]. - The preference for direct stock investments is increasing, with 47% of advisors suggesting this method [21][19]. Group 4: Client Performance and Sentiment - 82% of advisors reported that their clients achieved profits in 2025, a significant increase of 23 percentage points from 2024 [29][27]. - High-net-worth clients are showing increased confidence, with 19% planning to increase their investments, indicating a rising risk appetite [31][27]. - The sentiment towards gold investments is also positive, with 57% of advisors expecting gold prices to continue rising [25][26].

价格指标出现改善、2025年我国出口规模同比增长6.1%……在近日举行的中国金融四十人论坛 （CF40）宏观政策季度报告（2025年四季度）发布会上，中国金融四十人研究院执行院长郭凯多次 用"韧性"概括过去一年我国宏观经济运行特点。 他注意到，内需方面，虽然部分耐用品消费增速在2025年8月后出现走弱趋势，但其他商品和服务消费 的增速仍保持在3%左右。从行业数据来看，水泥、石油沥青、钢材等主要大宗商品的消耗并未明显收 缩，"实际投资动能似乎好于固定资产投资数据。"在郭凯看来，面临多重冲击挑战，我国经济仍表现出 较强韧性，部分领域开始出现一系列积极变化。 "2025年我国出现了一系列经济早期复苏的迹象。"同一现场，CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济 与政治研究所副所长张斌也用多个数据加以解释：社会融资规模在连续多年下降后，于2025年首次实现 反弹；企业存款显著改善，企业盈利止住了此前连续两年的下滑趋势；消费、劳动力市场总体运行平 稳……"当前经济复苏的支撑力量主要来自财政、外需等外生因素，民营投资、居民消费等内生动力依 然偏弱。"张斌认为，2026年逆周期政策力度是关键，其中货币政策是重中之重。"要以货币 ...

分析人士指出，德国经济长期面临能源价格高企、全球需求疲软以及结构性改革推进缓慢等压力和挑 战。2025年，受美国加征关税等外部因素影响，德国对美出口明显承压，导致整体出口连续第三年下 降。尽管政府在基础设施和国防领域的大规模投资今年有望为经济提供一定支撑，但若缺乏配套的结构 性改革，德国经济出现明显回暖仍需时日。 德国总理默茨在社交媒体X上表示，失业人数突破300万是一个警示信号，企业破产情况值得关注。他 指出，德国政府推出了多项经济扶持措施，但效果仍不明显，"经济复苏必须成为今年的核心议题"。 德国联邦劳工局局长安德烈娅·纳勒斯表示，目前德国劳动力市场整体动能不足，年初失业人数上升主 要受季节性因素影响，今年推动工业、贸易等关键领域尽快企稳回升仍是当务之急。 （来源：经济参考报） 德国联邦劳工局日前公布的数据显示，今年1月德国登记失业人数达308.5万，较上月增加17.7万，创下 12年以来最高水平。当月，德国失业率升至6.6%。 ...

（原标题：韩国经济副总理：经济复苏势头良好将推进资本市场与房地产政策改革） 据韩国《纽西斯》1月29日报道，韩国经济副总理兼财政经济部长具允哲当日在采访中总结了政府 过去8个月的经济工作成果，并阐述了未来政策方向。他指出，去年政府成立初期虽面临一季度经济负 增长等困难局面，但通过稳定心理、追加预算等措施，使经济增速从上半年的0.3%大幅升至下半年的 1.7%，并实现了2025年全年1%的增长，出口额突破7000亿美元，股市也创下历史新高。得益于半导体 行业快速复苏，2026年经济增长率有望达到2%。他同时也坦承，由于资产差距扩大、企业两极分化、 青年就业疲软等问题，普通民众的"体感经济"复苏仍然滞后，政府将着力出台更具包容性的政策。在政 策方面，政府将推进资本市场"胡萝卜加大棒"改革，一方面提高退市门槛清退不良企业，另一方面扩大 技术企业上市支持，推动市场先进化。关于房地产政策，明确将结束多套住房转让税优惠措施，并表示 将就强化财产保有税广泛听取民意，以改善资源分配结构并减轻政策执行过程中的社会负担。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market is expected to continue the volatile pattern and it is difficult to form a unilateral trend. The current market has both long and short factors. On one hand, institutional allocation demand and the risk - hedging property of RMB assets support the market, especially for ultra - long - term varieties. On the other hand, stock market performance, policy expectations, and changes in supply - demand relations will jointly affect market fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, the bond market trend depends on the sustainability of economic recovery, the actual strength of fiscal policy, and the subsequent direction of monetary policy. If economic data such as inflation continues to pick up and more regions are able to expand their balance sheets after debt resolution, the possibility of interest rates rising after reaching the bottom will increase [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - Last week, the Treasury bond futures market showed differentiation between long and short ends. The ultra - long - end center slowly declined with the TL main contract down 0.34% for the week, the 10 - year main contract steadily rose slightly with a weekly gain of about 0.11%, and the medium - and short - term maturities changed little. Market fluctuations were mainly in equities and commodities. The turning point of risk assets on Friday was due to factors like the Iranian situation, new Fed candidates, US policy shutdown risk, and risks in the US stock market during the earnings season. Domestic bonds were less affected by other major asset classes. The central bank continuously released liquidity through reverse repurchase, with a total of 176.15 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations for the week, achieving a net injection after offsetting maturities. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate remained stable at 1.40%, and the weighted average DR007 rate fluctuated around the policy rate, keeping the funds reasonably abundant. The marginal weakness of the ultra - long end might be due to some long - position funds taking profits at the beginning of the week, causing the TL2603 contract to correct. However, the long - term allocation demand from the "good start" dividend - insurance sales of insurance institutions and the inflow of foreign risk - hedging funds supported the price to stabilize around 112 yuan [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The content mainly presents various charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), deposit - based pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rate, bond - pledged repurchase rate, R007&DR007 spread and trading volume, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate, excess reserve ratio, LPR, deposit reserve ratio, Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads. But there is no specific text summary of these data [8][9][11] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The content shows various indicators of Treasury bond futures arbitrage, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts in the current quarter. But there is no specific text analysis of these indicators [38][41][48]

新西兰财政部表示，随着经济复苏和需求回升，价格增长是在预料之中的。但最近的CPI结果并不代表 经济过度刺激，尤其是劳动力市场仍表现出大量的闲置产能。财政部预计到2026年，就业增长步伐将保 持缓慢；尽管目前5.3%的失业率"可能已处于本轮周期的顶峰"。 ...