Core Points - The U.S. government has reached its first trade agreement with the UK since initiating a tariff war, which includes partial tariff reductions and expanded market access for products [1][2] - The agreement is described as lacking substantial details and is more of a framework than a complete trade deal, with further negotiations required to finalize specific terms [4][6] Group 1: Agreement Details - The U.S. will reduce tariffs on the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to 10%, while cars exceeding this number will still incur a 25% tariff [2] - The UK government announced $5 billion in new export opportunities for U.S. farmers and producers, including over $700 million in ethanol exports and $250 million in beef exports, with tariffs on U.S. ethanol exports to the UK reduced to zero [2] - A new trade alliance for steel and aluminum products has been established, with the UK stating that steel exports to the U.S. will no longer face tariffs [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - Despite the agreement, the previously announced 10% baseline tariff will remain in effect, indicating limited immediate economic relief [3][6] - Analysts suggest that the agreement does not significantly impact economic growth or address the initial goals of increasing U.S. fiscal revenue or promoting manufacturing return [7] - The overall trade relationship between the U.S. and UK is primarily focused on the services sector, which is not affected by tariffs, leaving the UK economy vulnerable to global economic uncertainties [7] Group 3: Political Context - The urgency to announce the agreement reflects internal pressures within the Trump administration to demonstrate progress before potential economic downturns [4][5] - The UK government, post-Brexit, is also in need of trade agreements to solidify its political standing and achieve tangible results [5] - Following this agreement, the Trump administration has indicated that more trade agreements are forthcoming, although specifics remain to be seen [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent "triple kill" in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets triggered by Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," highlighting concerns over inflation, economic stagnation, and the long-term trust in U.S. dollar assets [1][38]. Historical Context of "Triple Kill" - Since 1970, there have been 10 notable instances of "triple kill," primarily associated with stagflation concerns, monetary tightening, and a decline in the relative attractiveness of the U.S. dollar [2][19]. - Common triggers include economic stagnation or stagflation worries, monetary tightening to combat inflation, and a weakening of the U.S. dollar's relative appeal [2][19]. Economic Stagnation and Inflation - Historical instances of "triple kill" often occurred during periods of economic downturn and high inflation, where the Federal Reserve had to tighten monetary policy, leading to a dual impact on both stock and bond markets [2][19]. - For example, during the 1973-1974 period, the S&P 500 dropped by 15.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 60 basis points [4][6]. Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's delayed or inconsistent response to inflation has historically exacerbated inflation expectations, contributing to market volatility [9][19]. - In 1987, for instance, the Fed's shift to a hawkish stance led to a significant rise in bond yields and a corresponding drop in stock prices [19][21]. Recent Market Dynamics - The recent "triple kill" was primarily triggered by Trump's unexpected "reciprocal tariffs," which raised short-term market volatility and long-term concerns about inflation and economic growth [38][40]. - The tariffs are projected to increase U.S. inflation by 1.6 to 1.8 percentage points and reduce GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [40][48]. Long-term Implications for Dollar Assets - While the tariffs may undermine investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, the article argues that the long-term impact on the dollar's status as a reserve currency will take time to materialize [49][51]. - The current structure of U.S. debt and the predominance of domestic holders of U.S. Treasuries suggest that the dollar's position as a global reserve currency remains intact for now [51][56]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that if negotiations on tariffs or tax cuts progress positively, it could alleviate market pressures and stabilize investor sentiment [56]. - Conversely, persistent stagflation pressures could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates quickly, potentially exacerbating market volatility [56][57].

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 滞与胀谁先到来？ ——2025 年 5 月美联储议息会议点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月议息会议上美联储如期维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，会议声明调整主要聚焦于关税政 策导致的变化。综合议息会议声明和鲍威尔会后发言看，在看到关税政策对美国经济的显著冲 击前，美联储按兵不动是大概率事件。因此，降息与否的关键还是在于经济的变化。短期内， 关税政策对于就业和通胀的影响或仅能缓慢体现，难以快速推动美联储采取进一步行动。中长 期内，贸易谈判结果与美国国内减税、放松监管等政策的配合推行情况是决定关税政策对经济 影响的关键。滞与胀谁先到来，将在很大程度上决定美联储的下一步决策。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 黄帅 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 [Table_Title 滞与胀谁先到来？ 2] ——2025 年 5 月美联储议息会议点评 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 北京时间 2025 年 5 月 8 日凌晨，美联储 5 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is at a crossroads, facing a dilemma of slowing growth and inflationary pressures, which is challenging the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of full employment and price stability [1] - The aggressive trade protectionism initiated by the Trump administration is creating a triple policy conflict, impacting inflation, investment confidence, and the credibility of U.S. monetary policy [3] Economic Conditions - The long-term U.S. Treasury yield premium has risen significantly, with the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding the federal funds rate by 135 basis points, the highest level since 2019, indicating investor compensation for policy uncertainty [3] - The market is showing caution towards U.S. dollar assets, as evidenced by the weakest demand for 30-year Treasury auctions since March 2020 [3] Dollar Dynamics - The dollar is facing dual pressures: a trend towards "de-dollarization" and a loss of credibility in the Federal Reserve's policies, leading to expectations of continued depreciation of the dollar index by 2025 [4] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is becoming increasingly complex, with market expectations for a potential 100 basis points rate cut by the end of the year, reflecting underlying economic contradictions [4] Policy Challenges - The ultimate test of policy decisions is approaching, as third-quarter economic data may confirm the negative impact of trade tensions on consumption and investment, forcing the Federal Reserve to choose between maintaining restrictive rates or succumbing to political pressure for rate cuts [5] - The uncertainty surrounding these policy decisions is becoming a new source of market volatility, with the correlation between the VIX fear index and the dollar index reaching its highest level since the pandemic began in 2020 [5]

所以，对于特朗普接下来的行动，我们完全不必着急。我们大不了苦上两个月三个月，美国可就不一样了。特朗普这么一闹，出来反对他的，从民主党到未 来很多共和党人都会反对。因为共和党原本的 5 个铁盘州，都快倒向民主党了，这影响非常大。他一上台，搞崩了美股市场，整个美股蒸发了 4 万亿美元市 值。现在美国底层老百姓因物价问题压力山大，从有钱人到没钱人，都被他得罪光了。以后谁还支持共和党，支持特朗普？他之前画的那些大饼，说要让制 造业回流，关税折腾了这么久，有哪家跨国公司愿意把工厂搬到美国？没有，因为开公司的都知道，供应链不是一天能建立起来的，而是历经多年形成，且 供应链非常复杂，地区人才优势的形成也非一朝一夕之功。 特朗普任期仅四年，却搞出这么大动静。若这些举措真能见效，起码得十年以上。但十年之后，若持续如此，美国经济还能撑得住吗？不出意外，今年美国 经济就将面临滞胀风险，而且这次是人为造成的滞胀。美国本来有经济硬着陆风险，本可通过经济手段调整，可特朗普却直接让美国经济硬着陆。 特朗普执政 100 天，真的创造了一个历史记录，基本上把该得罪的、不该得罪的都得罪光了。你以为他只是得罪中国吗？并非如此，他得罪更多的是美国内 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The US GDP growth rate turned negative in Q1 2025, with the annualized quarterly-on-quarter initial value at -0.3%, lower than the expected 0.3% and a significant drop from the previous quarter's 2.4%. Tariffs increased economic volatility, and the surge in imports due to enterprises stockpiling ahead of time dragged down the economic growth rate. As tariffs are implemented, enterprises' investment willingness weakens, and they need to digest inventory. Meanwhile, the consumption momentum of the household sector has significantly weakened, putting further downward pressure on the economy. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has slightly increased, with the probability of a rate cut in June expected to rise to 64.2% [3][4] - In the short term, the market is trading around the progress of tariff negotiations and is insensitive to fundamental data. In the long term, the de - globalization under tariffs is hard to reverse, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy continues to accumulate. Without further progress in tax cuts and interest rate cuts, the market's risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US Q1 GDP Growth Rate Turns Negative, Tariffs Increase Economic Volatility - **GDP Data**: The annualized quarterly - on - quarter initial value of US Q1 GDP was -0.3%, lower than the expected 0.3% and a significant drop from the previous quarter's 2.4%. Net exports dragged down the economic growth rate by 4.83%, with the import sub - item contributing -5.03%. Personal consumption expenditure grew at 1.8%, government expenditure at -1.4%, private investment at 21.9%, and imports at 41.3%. The core PCE price index rebounded from 2.6% to 3.5%, higher than expected [3][8] - **Contribution to GDP Growth**: Consumption, fixed investment, inventory, net exports, and government expenditure contributed 1.21%, 1.34%, 2.25%, -4.83%, and -0.25% respectively to the -0.3% GDP growth [3][16] - **Consumption**: Service consumption remained resilient, while commodity consumption declined significantly. The growth rate of commodity consumption dropped from 6.2% in Q1 to 0.5%, with durable and non - durable goods growing at -3.4% and 2.7% respectively. Service consumption was only weak in the accommodation and food sub - item [23] - **Investment**: Private investment increased by 21.9% quarter - on - quarter annualized, the highest since 2022. Equipment investment grew by 22.5%, mainly due to enterprises advancing equipment investment to avoid future tariff pressure and government regulations on the technology industry. Inventory also increased significantly due to pre - tariff stockpiling. However, long - term capital expenditure is showing signs of weakness [24] - **Government Expenditure**: The growth rate of government expenditure dropped to -1.4% in Q1, and the government's role in boosting the economy weakened due to debt ceiling, fiscal budget constraints, and the intervention of Trump's new government efficiency department [26] - **Inflation**: Inflation continued to rise in Q1. The GDP deflator rose to 3.7%, the PCE price index rebounded from 2.4% to 3.6%, and the core PCE rebounded from 2.6% to 3.5%. The process of inflation decline may be slower under tariff shocks [26] 2. Investment Advice - In the short term, the market is trading around the progress of tariff negotiations. After the news that the US wants to negotiate tariffs with China, the market's risk appetite has recovered. Gold has a correction space due to crowded long - positions, the US stock market is expected to be weak and oscillating after reaching the resistance level, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields will oscillate. In the long term, the risk of stagflation in the US economy continues to accumulate, and the market's risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [5][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The core logic for the long - term rise of gold (weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous gold purchases by central banks, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations) remains solid. Gold is expected to maintain a structural bull market. Short - term price adjustments are normal rather than a trend reversal, and gold has long - term allocation value [3]. - The US economy shows signs of potential stagflation, with issues such as a consumer confidence decline, inflation risks, and uncertainties in the labor market. The economic recovery momentum in Europe and the United States has weakened, especially in the service industry [19][33]. - The Chinese economy in April saw a decline in the PMI index, a slowdown in real - estate recovery, an increase in industrial enterprise profits, and a significant growth in exports in March, but there are still many challenges [60][67][74]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Asset Price Logic Differentiation - Bond market: The US Treasury yields have been affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's attitude. The yields of Chinese government bonds have continued to decline, reflecting the expectation of loose monetary policy and the pressure of economic slowdown. The yields of Japanese government bonds are still loose under the YCC policy, and the British government bond yields are under pressure from trade tensions [9][13]. - Commodity market: Black commodities are generally weak, chemicals are in a weak - shock situation, non - ferrous metals are strong, gold has significant fluctuations, and agricultural products have different trends [16]. 2. Overseas Tariff Negotiations Are Repeated, and Monetary Expectations Are Loose - US economy: In April 2025, the US consumer market was in a "polarized" state. The inflation rate in March showed different trends, and the core inflation was sticky. The manufacturing and service industries showed mixed performance, the labor market had a "strong employment but weak confidence" feature, and the Fed's balance sheet was shrinking, with internal differences on the timing of interest rate cuts [19][24][33][36]. - Other countries' economies: Inflation rates in various countries are at different levels, and the manufacturing and service industries in Europe are under pressure. There are also differences in the monetary policies of central banks in various countries [22][30][33]. - Geopolitical conflicts: Multiple geopolitical conflicts have led to turmoil in the energy market, a refugee crisis, and intensified great - power games. There are also differences and progress in tariff negotiations among different regions [48][50]. 3. China's PMI Data Declines, and Policies Are Steady - PMI data: In April 2025, both the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined. The supply and demand sides, external demand, and prices all showed weakening trends [60]. - Investment: From January to March 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased, with new and old infrastructure and manufacturing investment growing. The real - estate investment decline has converged, and the real - estate land market is not hot [63][67][87]. - Consumption: In the first quarter of 2025, domestic consumption showed a stable increase, with different performances in different fields [70]. - Exports: In March 2025, exports increased significantly, but there are potential risks in the future [74][77]. - Industrial enterprise profits: From January to March 2025, the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year, but the profit margin was low, and the debt ratio was high [82]. 4. Some Risk - Aversion Sentiment Subsides, and Gold Prices Adjust Significantly - Gold market: In the week of April 25, 2025, the global gold market experienced a significant correction. The proportion of non - commercial long positions in gold decreased, the holdings of gold ETF funds changed, and the dollar rose while the US Treasury yields fell [107][110][113]. - Supply and demand of gold and silver: In the first quarter of 2025, the net inflow of global physical gold ETFs reached a new high since the first quarter of 2022. The global silver market is in a "tight balance" state, with industrial demand supporting the fundamentals [117][119]. - Outlook for gold: Gold has entered a bull market cycle driven by the weakening of the US dollar credit, risk - aversion demand, and central - bank gold purchases. The medium - and long - term upward trend is clear, but there may be short - term fluctuations [121][122].

Report Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The US economy faces increasing stagflation pressure, and the US dollar is expected to remain volatile. The market is significantly affected by factors such as tariff policies, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to hold safe - haven assets to hedge against uncertainties [33][34] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite slightly increased. Most stock markets rose, and most bond yields declined. The US Treasury yield dropped to 4.23%. The US dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.47, non - US currencies showed mixed performance. Gold prices fell 0.2% to $3319 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 24.8, the spot commodity index rose, and Brent crude oil fell 0.9% to $67.5 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. The S&P 500 rose 4.59%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.56%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.74%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 2.81%. Tariff issues continued to disrupt the market, and the Fed's stance became more dovish. US stock earnings season started well, providing some support. However, economic prospects were under pressure, and overseas stock market expectations were weak. The domestic stock market aimed for stability, but market risk appetite was hard to continuously increase [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.23%. Fed officials' dovish attitude and the suspension of tariffs reduced the pressure on US Treasuries, but the downward space was limited. The Chinese 10 - year Treasury yield slightly rose to 1.66%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowing. The domestic bond market was affected by multiple factors and showed an oscillating trend [16][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.47, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. Offshore RMB rose 0.24%, the euro fell 0.25%, the pound rose 0.13%, the yen fell 1.05%, the Swiss franc fell 1.42%, the real rose over 3%, and some other currencies also had different performances [28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold fell 0.2% to $3319 per ounce. After a significant increase during the week, it fell due to factors such as potential Sino - US trade negotiations. There was still room for short - term correction, but the long - term upward logic remained. Brent crude oil fell 0.9% to $67.5 per barrel. Commodities oscillated and rose overall, but their demand prospects were under pressure due to the US dollar's rebound [31] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US economic stagflation pressure is rising. The Fed's褐皮书 showed that businesses were increasingly worried about tariffs, and consumer confidence and inflation expectations on Friday showed obvious stagflation characteristics. The US - China tariff game and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation both had limited progress, and market uncertainty remained high [33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - There are a series of important economic data releases and events, including the US April Dallas Fed business activity index, US housing price index, China's April official manufacturing PMI, the eurozone's first - quarter GDP, the US April non - farm payrolls, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting [35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's ongoing tensions with the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting Trump's fluctuating stance on Powell's leadership and the implications for U.S. economic policy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Trump has repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve's policies, labeling them as "ridiculous" and calling Powell an "enemy," despite having appointed him [2]. - Initially, Trump expected Powell to maintain low interest rates to stimulate investment, but Powell's decision to raise rates in response to a strengthening economy led to Trump's dissatisfaction [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Pressure and Political Dynamics - Trump's administration faces increasing economic pressure due to tariffs and inflation, leading him to call for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2][4]. - A recent national survey indicated that Trump's economic approval rating has dropped to 43%, with disapproval at 55%, marking a significant shift in public sentiment regarding his economic management [4]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Powell has emphasized that the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments should be based on economic data rather than political influence, maintaining the institution's historical independence from the White House [3]. - The article suggests that Trump's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve reflect broader challenges he faces in implementing his agenda across various issues [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The average tariff imposed by the US has surged from 3% to over 20%, marking the highest level in nearly a century, which has led to significant declines in stock and commodity prices, reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s [1][2] - High tariffs disrupt global supply chains, forcing companies to adjust production layouts, which reduces global production efficiency and raises the US policy uncertainty index to its second-highest level in decades [1][5] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to push inflation higher, slow down economic growth in exporting countries, and suppress overall production, leading to a lasting negative impact on the macroeconomy [1][6] - The report predicts a potential recession or stagflation in the US economy, with GDP expected to drop sharply and both consumption and investment slowing down, contrasting with the prevailing belief in the resilience of the US economy [1][8] - Economic data in the US shows significant divergence, with soft data (like consumer confidence) not aligning with hard data (like sales figures), necessitating careful differentiation between core and auxiliary data to avoid reliance on distorted information [1][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The US government has announced a significant increase in tariffs, raising basic tariffs by 10% and imposing tariffs of 30% to 50% on countries with large trade deficits with the US, resulting in an average tariff increase to over 20% [2][3] - This tariff increase has led to a notable decline in US stock markets and commodity prices, indicating a substantial negative impact on the economy [4][5] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the US economy may face a challenging future, with a high likelihood of recession or stagflation due to the adverse effects of tariffs and other policies [7][8] - The analysis indicates that the most resilient sectors, such as consumption and investment, are also showing signs of slowing down, confirming the overall downward trend in the economy [17][18] Global Economic Context - China's economy showed a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter, but is expected to face challenges in the second and third quarters due to tariff impacts, with potential government measures to stabilize recovery [19][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of considering the contrasting policy environments between the US and China, with China having more room for counter-cyclical stimulus due to lower inflation [20][21] Asset Allocation Recommendations - In the current environment, the report recommends allocating to safe assets like gold and Chinese bonds, while advising caution regarding traditional safe assets like US dollars and bonds due to their diminished safety and resilience [44][38] - The report suggests that investors should maintain a cautious stance towards US equities, given the potential for recession or stagflation, and consider structural adjustments in their portfolios [39][42]